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**Udog** · 10-09-2013, 11:44 AM

NFL Week 6 opening line report: Will Broncos let up vs. Jags?

The mainstream media loves games like Jacksonville at Denver.

While most sports reporters shy away from the sinful spreads in their columns, this massive 28-point line has everyone talking about Week 6’s first-versus-worst matchup.

The spread has been up since last week, when the LVH Superbook in Las Vegas opened its lookahead lines. And Week 5’s results – Denver win in Dallas, Jacksonville loss in St. Louis – have done little to change the odds.

“I equate this spread to this past weekend’s Georgia State-Alabama spread (56.5),” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada based odds service The Sports Club, tells Covers. “If Denver gets up big in the first half, I don’t expect them to keep it up. There’s no incentive for it. They will pull their starters and get some rest. The line is deserved but if you’re a handicapper, you have to know that Denver won’t risk getting anyone injured.”

The Broncos also have an important conference game against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 7 – Peyton Manning’s former team. We looked at the biggest NFL spreads of the past 28 seasons last week, and favorites of more than 20 points - -20.5 to -24 - are a 0-7 ATS since 1985.

According to Covers Expert Bruce Marshall, editor of the famous Gold Sheet, the Broncos-Jags spread ties the highest line in NFL history – the expansion Atlanta Falcons hosting the Baltimore Colts (-28) in 1966. The Falcons covered, losing 19-7 in Week 10.

New York Giants at Chicago Bears (-9.5, 45.5)

Some books opened this spread as low as Chicago -7.5 but it seems like the betting market is finally starting to believe in the Giants’ 0-5 start.

“I don’t understand why they’re betting on New York. Up until Sunday, people were still hammering the Giants every week, thinking that they were due,” says Korner, who sent out a suggested line of Bears -10. “It was a mistake for any book to open this around a touchdown. Let the money take it down. The Giants have been big winners for books this season. And you never leave a hot machine at the casino.”

Green Bay Packers at Baltimore Ravens (+3, 48)

The defending Super Bowl champs are 3-point home underdogs against the Packers in Week 6. Korner says this line could go up to as high as Green Bay -4 before kickoff, but isn’t sold on the Cheese Heads being that big.

“Baltimore showed some life this weekend and is coming back around,” he says. “Green Bay wasn’t really that impressive beating a Detroit team missing its best player (WR Calvin Johnson). People have short-term memories when it comes to betting, so it would be no surprise to see this move up to 3.5 or -4.”

New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots (-1, 49.5)

Korner says he brought New Orleans as a slight road favorite to the table, but released a suggested spread of Patriots -2.5, hesitant to make New England a home underdog. But it wouldn’t surprise him to see the Saints close as the chalk.

“The Saints have that fearsome offense. And the Patriots do not,” Korner says. “If this line runs, it runs to New Orleans. It won’t go toward New England. There is nowhere to go but to New Orleans."

**Udog** · 10-09-2013, 11:45 AM

NFL line watch: Jets' Monday upset moves money, spread

Each week during the pro football season, Covers Expert Art Aronson looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets (Opened +2.5)

The Steelers lost 34-27 to the Vikings in London two weeks ago and are 0-4. Clearly, the oddsmakers believe that Pittsburgh is going to win at least a couple games this season and with two whole weeks off to prepare for the hapless Jets, this seemed to have been the perfect matchup to get off the schneid.

Hold the phone. New York wasn't supposed to dominate the Falcons in Atlanta and escape with an improbable 30-28 outright victory as a 10-point underdog Monday night. But, that's exactly what happened.

Bettors have quickly jumped on New York and this line has already started to swing dramatically. As of Tuesday morning, I still see a +3 for the Jets on the board, but for the most part New York is now a 2.5-point favorite with a few 3s creeping up as well.

If you think that the home side can make the most of this situation and parlay its last performance into a tiny win skein, you'd better hurry up and get on it.

Spread to wait on

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (Opened -10.5)

If you're a fan of the Kansas City Chiefs, I'd recommend waiting a bit closer to kickoff before getting down. This line opened at -10.5 but after the Raiders flattened the Chargers 27-17 as 6.5-point dogs last week, bettors were quick to jump on the double-digit spread. We're now seeing some 9s and even 8.5s hitting the board.

At 5-0, all eyes are on Andy Reid and the Chiefs. Kansas City fans have to like their chances to be a perfect 9-0 when their team enters its bye, with very winnable games versus the Raiders this week, vs. Houston, vs. Cleveland and at Buffalo.

Total to watch

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Opened 45.5)

Looking to hammer an over? You'd better move quick. This total opened at 45.5, but 46s have started to hit the board. After a sluggish start, the Eagles would finally hit their stride and dispatch of the Giants 36-21 last week - perhaps a big reason this total has already started to climb.

Or perhaps it's because the Bucs are 0-4, off their bye week and with a new pivot under center, sharps feel that they can finally put some points on the board versus this vanilla Philadelphia secondary, after totaling just 44 over their first four games.

**Udog** · 10-09-2013, 11:45 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 6

NY Giants at Chicago
The Giants look to bounce back from their 36-21 loss to Philadelphia last weekend and take advantage of a Chicago team that is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 home games. New York is the pick (+9) according to Dunkel, which has the Bears favored by only 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+9). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 10

Game 101-102: NY Giants at Chicago (8:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 127.914; Chicago 133.290
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 5 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Chicago by 9; 47
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+9); Over

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 13

Game 203-204: Oakland at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 123.352; Kansas City 140.131
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 17; 37
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 8 1/2; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-8 1/2); Under

Game 205-206: Philadelphia at Tampa Bay (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 129.809; Tampa Bay 126.931
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 3; 42
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 1; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-1); Under

Game 207-208: Green Bay at Baltimore (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 136.653; Baltimore 140.600
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 4; 52
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 3; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+3); Over

Game 209-210: Detroit at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 134.371; Cleveland 129.786
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 4 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Detroit by 2 1/2; 45
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-2 1/2); Over

Game 211-212: Carolina at Minnesota (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 130.490; Minnesota 134.786
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 4 1/2; 39
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 2 1/2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-2 1/2); Under

Game 213-214: St. Louis at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 121.746; Houston 135.228
Dunkel Line: Houston by 13 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Houston by 7; 43
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-7); Over

Game 215-216: Pittsburgh at NY Jets (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 128.042; NY Jets 126.477
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 2 1/2; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+2 1/2); Under

Game 217-218: Cincinnati at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 138.756; Buffalo 128.385
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 10 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 7; 42
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-7); Over

Game 219-220: Tennessee at Seattle (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 128.411; Seattle 145.063
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 16 1/2; 36
Vegas Line: Seattle by 13 1/2; 40
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-13 1/2); Under

Game 221-222: Jacksonville at Denver (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 114.807; Denver 147.106
Dunkel Line: Denver by 22 1/2;
Vegas Line: Denver by 27 1/2; 53
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+27 1/2); Over

Game 223-224: Arizona at San Francisco (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 125.582; San Francisco 140.096
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 14 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 11; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-11); Under

Game 225-226: New Orleans at New England (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 140.703; New England 139.551
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 1; 45
Vegas Line: New England by 2 1/2; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+2 1/2); Under

Game 227-228: Washington at Dallas (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 127.027; Dallas 137.718
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 10 1/2; 58
Vegas Line: Dallas by 5 1/2; 53
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-5 1/2); Over

MONDAY, OCTOBER 14

Game 229-230: Indianapolis at San Diego (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 139.088; San Diego 131.781
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 7 1/2; 54
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 1; 50
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-1); Over

**Udog** · 10-09-2013, 11:45 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 6

Thursday, October 10

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NY GIANTS (0 - 5) at CHICAGO (3 - 2) - 10/10/2013, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in road games against NFC North division opponents since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 47-28 ATS (+16.2 Units) in road games off a division game since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Sunday, October 13

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OAKLAND (2 - 3) at KANSAS CITY (5 - 0) - 10/13/2013, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 3-1 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND is 3-1 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (2 - 3) at TAMPA BAY (0 - 4) - 10/13/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 152-116 ATS (+24.4 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
TAMPA BAY is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 1-0 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 1-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (2 - 2) at BALTIMORE (3 - 2) - 10/13/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games against NFC North division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DETROIT (3 - 2) at CLEVELAND (3 - 2) - 10/13/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CAROLINA (1 - 3) at MINNESOTA (1 - 3) - 10/13/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 67-38 ATS (+25.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 1-0 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 1-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ST LOUIS (2 - 3) at HOUSTON (2 - 3) - 10/13/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 34-53 ATS (-24.3 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 130-166 ATS (-52.6 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 130-166 ATS (-52.6 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 63-93 ATS (-39.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 101-132 ATS (-44.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 36-55 ATS (-24.5 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
HOUSTON is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 35-17 ATS (+16.3 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PITTSBURGH (0 - 4) at NY JETS (3 - 2) - 10/13/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NY JETS are 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) after playing on Monday night football since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 48-30 ATS (+15.0 Units) in October games since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 56-33 ATS (+19.7 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 1-0 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 1-0 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CINCINNATI (3 - 2) at BUFFALO (2 - 3) - 10/13/2013, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-0 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 1-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TENNESSEE (3 - 2) at SEATTLE (4 - 1) - 10/13/2013, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 39-20 ATS (+17.0 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 27-51 ATS (-29.1 Units) in October games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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JACKSONVILLE (0 - 5) at DENVER (5 - 0) - 10/13/2013, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ARIZONA (3 - 2) at SAN FRANCISCO (3 - 2) - 10/13/2013, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-2 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-1 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ORLEANS (5 - 0) at NEW ENGLAND (4 - 1) - 10/13/2013, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 20-6 ATS (+13.4 Units) against AFC East division opponents since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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WASHINGTON (1 - 3) at DALLAS (2 - 3) - 10/13/2013, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 62-41 ATS (+16.9 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 36-18 ATS (+16.2 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
DALLAS is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 4-0 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 2-2 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, October 13

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INDIANAPOLIS (4 - 1) at SAN DIEGO (2 - 3) - 10/14/2013, 8:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 21-3 ATS (+17.7 Units) against AFC South division opponents since 1992.
INDIANAPOLIS is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
INDIANAPOLIS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) in home games off a loss against a division rival since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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**Udog** · 10-09-2013, 11:46 AM

NFL

Week 6

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Trend Report
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Thursday, October 10

8:25 PM
NY GIANTS vs. CHICAGO
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Giants last 6 games when playing on the road against Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 8 of the NY Giants last 11 games when playing Chicago
Chicago is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against NY Giants
Chicago is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home

Sunday, October 13

1:00 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. TAMPA BAY
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Tampa Bay's last 12 games when playing Philadelphia
Tampa Bay is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Philadelphia

1:00 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. NY JETS
Pittsburgh is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of the NY Jets last 13 games when playing Pittsburgh
NY Jets are 4-13 SU in their last 17 games when playing Pittsburgh

1:00 PM
CINCINNATI vs. BUFFALO
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 7 games on the road
Cincinnati is 10-3-1 ATS in its last 14 games
Buffalo is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games
Buffalo is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cincinnati

1:00 PM
OAKLAND vs. KANSAS CITY
Oakland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Oakland's last 16 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 6 games at home
Kansas City is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games at home

1:00 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. HOUSTON
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games on the road
St. Louis is 4-15-1 SU in its last 20 games ,on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games
Houston is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home

1:00 PM
CAROLINA vs. MINNESOTA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games on the road
Carolina is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games on the road
Minnesota is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Minnesota's last 7 games when playing Carolina

1:00 PM
DETROIT vs. CLEVELAND
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games on the road
Detroit is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Cleveland's last 16 games at home

1:00 PM
GREEN BAY vs. BALTIMORE
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games
Baltimore is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games at home

4:05 PM
TENNESSEE vs. SEATTLE
Tennessee is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Seattle
Tennessee is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Seattle is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Tennessee

4:05 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. DENVER
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 6 games when playing on the road against Denver
Jacksonville is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

4:25 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. NEW ENGLAND
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans's last 7 games on the road
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
New England is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games
New England is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games

4:25 PM
ARIZONA vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Arizona is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games
San Francisco is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
San Francisco is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Arizona

8:30 PM
WASHINGTON vs. DALLAS
Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing at home against Washington
Dallas is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games when playing at home against Washington

Monday, October 14

8:40 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. SAN DIEGO
Indianapolis is 6-13 SU in its last 19 games on the road
Indianapolis is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
San Diego is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Diego's last 7 games

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**Udog** · 10-09-2013, 11:47 AM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 6

Thursday, October 10

NY Giants at Chicago, 8:25 ET
NY Giants: 16-5 ATS in road games against NFC North division opponents
Chicago: 6-17 ATS in home games after gaining 6 or more yards/play in their previous game

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 6

Thursday's Game

Giants (0-5) @ Bears (3-2)—Winless Big Blue off to horrific start, with banged-up OL main reason behind -13 turnover ratio; in their three games outside awful NFC East (2-3 is first place), Giants were outscored 73-14 in second half, losing by 18-38-24 points- they allowed 31+ points in all five games (36.4 ppg/game). Throw in travel and short work week, this is tough spot for them. Chicago allowed 40-26 points in losing last two games after 3-0 start; Bears are 0-2-1 as home favorites this year (12-21-2 in last 35) with home wins this year by 1-3 points, plus loss to unbeaten Saints. Giants are 0-2 as road dogs this year after being 7-3 last two years; they’re averaging only 57 rushing yards/game, but have won four of last five visits to Windy City, but those were in happier times. NFC East teams are 4-9 vs spread outside the division, 2-5 on road, 2-4 as underdogs. NFC North teams are 3-5-1 outside the division. Four of five Chicago games went over the total.

**Udog** · 10-10-2013, 10:50 AM

NFL

Thursday, October 10

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Thursday Night Football betting: Giants at Bears
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New York Giants at Chicago Bears (-9.5, 47)

The wheels have completely come off for the New York Giants, who are off to a disastrous start and face a short turnaround when they visit the Chicago Bears on Thursday night. The Giants have dropped their first five games, the franchise's worst start in a non-strike season since 1979, and have shown little resistance while surrendering a league-worst 36.4 points per game. As bad as the Giants have been, they are only two games out of first place in the NFC East.

There is also plenty of concern in Chicago, which is coming off back-to-back losses following a 3-0 start to the season. A stout defense is normally a staple of the Bears, but they have been burned for an average of 28 points per game and have yet to hold an opponent under 21. Quarterback Jay Cutler threw for 358 yards in Sunday's 26-18 home loss to New Orleans, but Chicago's defense allowed Drew Brees and the Saints to control the ball for 36 minutes.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE: Chicago opened as a 9.5-point home favorite and has moved as low as -7.5. The total opened at 45 and jumped to 47.5.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: New York (+6.0) + Chicago (-1.5) + home field (-3.0) = Chicago -10.5

WEATHER: Temperatures in the low 60s with clear skies and winds blowing east at 7 mph.

ABOUT THE GIANTS (0-5, 0-5 ATS): While New York's defense has been abysmal, the running game is in shambles with second-year back David Wilson suffering a neck injury on Sunday and still dealing with tingling on Monday. That has forced Eli Manning to to carry a one-dimensional offense and the results have not been pretty - he's thrown a league-high 12 interceptions and been sacked 15 times. "He's certainly trying to do too much, he knows his team and he knows his responsibilities" Giants coach Tom Coughlin said. "He's an extremely accountable guy and he's going to do everything he possibly can."

ABOUT THE BEARS (3-2, 1-3-1 ATS): One of the few positives to come out of Sunday's loss was the immense performance of second-year wide receiver Alshon Jeffrey, who had 10 receptions for a franchise-record 218 yards. Of course, Jeffrey's monster day came at the expense of fellow wideout Brandon Marshall, who was limited to four catches for 30 yards and expressed his frustration after the game. "As a receiver, you always want the ball," Marshall said. "But, you know, coach (Marc) Trestman is an offensive guru. Jay's a good quarterback. We're going to do what's best for the team."

TRENDS:

* Road team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last five Thursday games.
* Bears are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five home games.
* Under is 5-0 in Giants' last five Thursday games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. New York has allowed at least 31 points in the first five games, matching a league record set by the Chicago Cardinals in 1954.

2. Bears RB Matt Forte has rushed for 375 yards and also had 27 receptions for 200 more.

3. The teams have not met since October 2010, when the Giants posted a 17-3 home win.

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**Udog** · 10-10-2013, 10:53 AM

NFL

Thursday, October 10

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Tale of the Tape: New York Giants at Chicago Bears
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The New York Giants look to end their winless stretch Thursday night as they visit the Chicago Bears. Here's our tale of the tape for this mid-week matchup:

Here's the breakdown in our betting tale of the tape:

Offense

The combination of Andre Brown's broken leg in the preseason and David Wilson's ineffectiveness and recent neck injury has saddled the Giants with the worst rush-yards-per-game average in the NFL (56.8). That likely won't improve much with Brandon Jacobs and Da'Rel Scott handling the rushing duties Thursday. Eli Manning has been turnover prone, but has still led the Giants to the ninth-most passing yards per game in the league through five weeks (280.2).

Chicago's Marc Trestman-led offense has been solid, if unspectacular. Jay Cutler has the team ranked 12th in pass yards per game at 260.6, and is tied for the fifth-most passing touchdowns in the league with 10. Chicago is sitting in the middle of the pack in rushing yards per contest (108), and its four rushing touchdowns is tied with the Seattle Seahawks for 11th in the NFL.

Edge: Chicago

Defense

The Giants' defensive effort to date has been an abomination. New York is 22nd in the league in passing yards allowed per game at 269.2 - a total that may have been even higher were it not for the Denver Broncos, Carolina Panthers and Kansas City Chiefs opting to run the ball late in their blowout wins over the Giants. The run defense is even worse, with New York allowing the fourth-highest per-game average in football (126).

Chicago may not have as many defensive issues as its Thursday counterpart, but the once-vaunted Bears defense is showing cracks in the absence of retired linebacker Brian Urlacher. The Bears rank a stunning 24th in pass yards permitted per game (278.4), though facing Matthew Stafford and Drew Brees back-to-back certainly doesn't help. Chicago is considerably better against the run, ranking 13th overall at 98.2 yards per game against.

Edge: Chicago

Special Teams

Even a competent kicking game has eluded the Giants so far in 2013. After cutting Lawrence Tynes loose in the offseason, the Giants turned to Josh Brown - and he has made just 4-of-6 field goal attempts this season, missing kicks against Carolina and Kansas City and not registering an attempt against Philadelphia last weekend. New York has the second-worst kickoff return average (18.7) but is the only team in the league with more than one punt-return touchdown.

The Bears have one of the best placekickers in the league in Robbie Gould, and he has been his best so far. Gould has connected on all eight of his field-goal attempts, including a 27-yarder in last Sunday's 26-18 loss to the Saints. Chicago boasts one of the top return games in the league, ranking third in both kickoff return average (27.1) and punt return average (15.2). The Bears are also one of only two teams with a kickoff return touchdown this season.

Edge: Chicago

Notable Quotable

"Sometimes it's good to have a short week and just stay focused and quickly get your focus on Chicago and start game planning and get excited about how we're going to run our offense and how we're going to make some plays." - Giants quarterback Eli Manning

"(The loss to New Orleans) really was about our offense's inability to move the football. It was unacceptable. (After) the way we practiced, the way we worked and the way we started games and moved the football in the first month, (the loss) was terribly disappointing." - Bears head coach Marc Trestman

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**Udog** · 10-10-2013, 10:55 AM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 6

Sunday, October 13

Oakland at Kansas City, 1:00 ET
Oakland: 3-13 ATS off an upset win as a home underdog
Kansas City: 11-2 UNDER in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest

Philadelphia at Tampa Bay, 1:00 ET
Philadelphia: 30-16 ATS in road games after a game where 50 total points or more were scored
Tampa Bay: 3-11 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders

Green Bay at Baltimore, 1:00 ET
Green Bay: 55-35 OVER in games played on turf
Baltimore: 12-3 ATS in home games off a upset win as an underdog

Detroit at Cleveland, 1:00 ET
Detroit: 2-11 ATS as a road favorite of 3 points or less
Cleveland: 10-2 UNDER in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points

Carolina at Minnesota, 1:00 ET
Carolina: 8-1 ATS off a road loss
Minnesota: 41-24 OVER after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game

St Louis at Houston, 1:00 ET
St Louis: 8-21 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points
Houston: 21-10 ATS in games played on a grass field

Pittsburgh at NY Jets, 1:00 ET
Pittsburgh: 56-33 ATS (+19.7 Units) in weeks 5 through 9
NY Jets: 1-8 ATS off 1 or more straight overs

Cincinnati at Buffalo, 1:00 ET
Cincinnati: 59-90 ATS in the first half of the season
Buffalo: 7-0 ATS off a road loss

Tennessee at Seattle, 4:05 ET
Tennessee: 8-1 OVER after playing a game at home
Seattle: 9-1 ATS in home lined games

Jacksonville at Denver, 4:05 ET
Jacksonville: 4-13 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest
Denver: 11-3 ATS in games played on a grass field

Arizona at San Francisco, 4:25 ET
Arizona: 6-17 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games
San Francisco: 18-8 ATS in games played on a grass field

New Orleans at New England, 4:25 ET
New Orleans: 24-45 ATS after allowing 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game
New England: 18-7 ATS after scoring and allowing 14 pts or less points

Washington at Dallas, 8:30 ET
Washington: 62-41 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points
Dallas: 7-18 ATS against conference opponents

Monday, October 14

Indianapolis at San Diego, 8:40 ET
Indianapolis: 15-3 ATS in road games after scoring 25 points or more in 3 straight games
San Diego: 10-23 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival

**Udog** · 10-10-2013, 11:01 AM

Where the action is: NFL mid-week line moves

Odds for Week 6 of the NFL season have been up since the weekend and books have already made some major adjustments to the lines as of Wednesday. We talk to sportsbooks and oddsmakers about the biggest mid-week line moves:

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs – Open: -10, Move: -8.5

Apparently, the early money isn’t sold on the Chiefs' perfect record and expects a stumble when the Raiders come to Arrowhead. This line has dropped from the key number of 10, but should go back up when the public comes in on the undefeated home favorite Sunday.

“Yeah, Oakland looked good and that's what's driving the early money. But we really like the Chiefs side here,” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, says. “That Chiefs money is looming and you should expect to get it while you're at this low level early in the week.”

Green Bay Packers at Baltimore Ravens – Open: +1, Move: +3, Move: +2

Early money moved this spread up to a field goal, however, injuries to the Packers' linebacker corps have trimmed a point off that line. Standout LB Clay Matthews is out for at least a month with a broken thumb.

“The problems for Green Bay are those injuries and that Baltimore is getting healthy at the right time in a weak division,” Aron Black of Bet365.com told Covers. “A big game for both teams, with action steady on Baltimore with the early lines but coming back on Green Bay at -2. Baltimore action is about 2.5/1 to Green Bay on the spread.”

Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets – Open: +3, Move: -3

Before the Jets shocked the Falcons on Monday Night Football, New York was a field-goal underdog at home in Week 6. However, that impressive performance has swayed early action, moving this line as many as six points at some markets.

“There will be many kicking themselves for not taking New york before the move,” says Black. “We are pretty light on Jets action, but are seeing Pittsburgh action as a small dog. A definite ‘who knows what will happen?’ game.”

Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos – Open: -28, Move: -26.5

The early money isn’t quick to give the most points in NFL history and has moved this historic spread down 1.5 points and under four touchdowns. According to Black, action on Denver is outnumbering Jacksonville at a 2/1 pace and he could see this line coming back up to 27.5 or a light -28 by kickoff Sunday afternoon.

“If anyone likes the Jags to do anything decent in this game, stay away from the spread and find the lowest Jaguars team total you can and go over,” says Black. “One thing that Denver has proved so far is, if not for such a dominant pass game they would be getting tore up by pundits for the lack of defense. If Denver scores the expected six or so TDs, then Jacksonville will at least get many opportunities to score themselves.”

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys – Open: -4, Move: -6

Even though the Cowboys lost to Denver last weekend, the betting market was more than impressed with Dallas’ effort – enough to tack two points on the opening spread for this NFC East rivalry. That may be giving Big D too much credit against a desperate Redskins squad.

“Dallas' showing versus Denver was impressive but we have a sneaking suspicion of a letdown here,” says Korner. “Washington needs a boost themselves and this is the venue to turn things around.”

**Udog** · 10-10-2013, 11:03 AM

NFL home teams covering at almost 60 percent rate

Home is where the heart – and money – is through the first five weeks of the 2013 NFL season.

Heading into Week 6’s schedule, home teams have gone 44-30-3 ATS (59.46%), with home favorites boasting a 27-19-3 (58.7%) ATS mark and home underdogs going 17-11-0 (60.71%) against the spread.

There are 11 teams that are perfect ATS at home this season – and no, Denver is not one of them (2-0-1 ATS). Of those teams, four are 3-0 ATS as hosts: the New Orleans Saints, Cincinnati Bengals, Buffalo Bills and Dallas Cowboys.

The Cowboys are perhaps the biggest shocker on this list, having gone 1-7 ATS inside AT&T Stadium – formerly Cowboys Stadium – last season. Dallas is home to the Washington Redskins as a 6-point home favorite this Sunday.

The other 3-0 ATS home winner back on familiar turf in Week 6 are the Buffalo Bills, who welcome the Bengals to Ralph Wilson Stadium as 7.5-point underdogs Sunday.

Last week, home teams went 9-5 ATS, including a 5-2 ATS mark from home underdogs.

Note: There are seven teams which have failed to cover a single spread at home this season: Philadelphia, Chicago (0-2-1 ATS), Washington, Houston, Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, and the New York Giants.

**Udog** · 10-10-2013, 11:06 AM

Wrong thing in the wrong thread....

**Udog** · 10-10-2013, 11:08 AM

Here, too.....

**Udog** · 10-10-2013, 01:00 PM

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 6

Each week, we break down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 6:

Carolina Panthers at Minnesota Vikings (-1, 43.5)

Panthers’ third-down offense vs. Vikings’ third-down defense

The Panthers offense doesn’t have much to hang its hat on this year, ranking 24th in yards and 27th in scoring. However, Carolina has been able to keep the chains moving when faced with third-down situations, converting on 47.17 percent of their third downs this season. That’s helped the Panthers control the clock for 32:49 a game – fourth-best time of possession in the NFL.

Minnesota’s defense ranks in the basement of the league, giving up 432.8 yards per game and allowing opponents to score an average of 30.8 points. A big problem is an inability to get key defensive stands. The Vikings are watching foes convert on 47.27 percent of their third-down chances, third worst in the NFL. And because the stop unit can’t put on the breaks, teams have kept Minny's defense on the field for more than 33 minutes per game.

Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets (-1, 41)

Steelers’ discipline vs. Jets’ penalty problems

If you can say anything good about the Steelers’ 0-4 start – and it’s tough to find a positive – it’s that they haven’t shot themselves in the foot with stupid penalties. Mike Tomlin’s troops are forcing refs to throw the flag just 4.2 times per game – tied for second fewest in the league. Those infractions have handed only 185 freebie yards to opponents.

The Jets, on the other hand, should think about adding yellow as an official team color after littering the turf with laundry this fall. New York ranks worst in the NFL with 50 penalties, equaling a league-high 369 yards gift wrapped to rivals – that’s 73.8 yards per game. With a spread this tight, those lost penalty yards could be the difference.

New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots (-1, 50.5)

Saints’ time of possession vs. Patriots’ lack of chemistry

The best way to beat Tom Brady? Don’t let him step on the field. New Orleans has the offense to do just that. It's tops in the league in time of possession, sucking 34:37 off the clock per game. The Saints controlled the ball for 36 minutes in last weekend’s win over the Bears and could keep the clock ticking even longer in New England this Sunday.

Brady and his targets have been struggling to get on the same page all season. Injuries and inexperience have slowed any chemistry on offense, which was apparent in last week’s loss to Cincinnati – completing just 47 percent of passes. And don’t even think of using the driving rain as an excuse. Tommy Boy has done some of his best work in wet weather. All that sitting around watching the Saints Sunday won’t help matters. The returning Rob Gronkowski will be a step behind and Danny Amendola is still trying to get in tune with Brady.

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-6, 52)

Redskins’ WR Santana Moss vs. Cowboys’ sucky secondary

I hate to inject some personal opinion into this mismatch, but as a loyal Cowboys fan, I can’t stand Santana Moss. The Redskins WR has acquired the nickname “The Cowboy Killer” during his time in D.C., frequently making the Dallas defense look stupid on huge strikes downfield. He had a score and 64 total yards in two games versus the Cowboys last season, which is mild compared to past chapters of this classic rivalry.

Moss may have lost a step but that might not matter against a Dallas secondary that was picked apart for 414 passing yards by Peyton Manning last Sunday. Of course, Washington is no Denver. But Dallas has watched worse offenses go over the top for big strikes. The Redskins are still putting up 284.8 yards through the air per game - eighth in the NFL - and come off a bye week, ready and hungry to get back in the NFC East race.

Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 6 (Thursday, October 10 - Monday, October 14)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 6 (Thursday, October 10 - Monday, October 14)

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