Announcement

**Udog** · 10-09-2013, 10:50 AM

Guys,

I'll fill this in later when Armadillo updates. Actually, he could leave it just like this and be accurate. This is about how many games of real interest there are this weekend.

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

Six of the more intriguing games on this week’s college football schedule:
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Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: Our NFL List of 13

32) Jaguars—Henne is a better QB than Gabbert, especially with explosive Blackmon back at WR; they’re 27.5-point underdogs at Denver this week, biggest spread since expansion Falcons played Johnny U’s Colts 47 years ago.

31) Bucs—No one likes the head coach, which wouldn’t matter except he fired the franchise QB and is now 1-8 in his last nine games overall- they haven’t scored in second half of their last two games. There is a new QB; soon there will be a new head coach.

30) Giants—Can’t remember an NFL team giving up 31+ points in each of its first five games; basic problem is that OL has fallen apart in front of a very good QB who is immobile, which screws things up. When Eli got protection, he moved ball and scored lot of points, which obscured other problems which seem glaring now.

29) Steelers—When you’re best week of the season is your bye week, you know its bad. Catch Jets on short week off Monday night upset win this week.

28) Vikings—Not sure what they’re trying to do bringing in Freeman, not sure they know what they’re trying to do. Had hard time deciding between them and Carolina for this spot- teams play this week, loser gets #28 next week.

8) Bengals—Held Brady without TD; rain or no rain, that’s a good deal. Still think letting rookie QBs watch for a year isn’t a terrible idea, but it seems like an obsolete idea. Long term, it could help, but we’ll never find out, except for guys who rise from obscurity to become starters.

7) 49ers—Bully team; they try to run it down your throat, but if they can’t, not sure Kaepernick is good enough to beat you throwing ball, especially with WRs woefully thin behind Boldin. Defense is banged-up, so they may have to win couple shootouts as season goes on.

6) Patriots—They had zero penalties at Cincinnati last week, in a game they never led; how does this happen? Their LBs/DBs will clutch/grab prolific Saint receivers all game Sunday; curious to see how many flags get thrown on them.

5) Colts—Wayne/Hilton are dynamic 1-2 punch at WR; they did great job seamlessly moving from Peyton era to Luck era. Jim Irsay is an underrated owner.

4) Chiefs—Have scored on defense/special teams in four of five games; Alex Smith manages game really well and that’s no insult, its how you win. This 5-0 team was 2-14 last year, but now rival Oakland comes to town, having won last six visits to Arrowhead. This should be fun.

3) Seahawks—Came close to sweeping Houston/Indy road trip; they’re totally dominant at home, figure to wind up with best record in NFC if they can beat Saints .

2) Saints—Speaking of which, big game this week has Who-Dats invading Boston. Again, we’re going to be watching Patriot defenders mugging TE Jimmy Graham to see how many flags they draw- it’s a key to this game.

1) Broncos- Converting 58.3% on third down, when they even get to third down. I am 53 years old; this might be the best offense I’ve ever seen, and I’m also a Ram fan, so very partial to Greatest Show on Turf, but these Broncos don’t turn ball over, which makes them better.

**Udog** · 10-09-2013, 10:51 AM

Football lines that make you go hmmm...

For the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Week 6 represents a reboot of the 2013 schedule.

The Bucs have already put Florida faithful through a season’s worth of drama, getting out to a sluggish 0-4 start (1-3 ATS), airing public infighting between star players and the coaching staff, and going through a painful breakup with their No. 1 QB, leaving the offense in the hands of a rookie.

After a bye in Week 5, Tampa Bay is ready for a fresh start. To quote Will Ferrell in The Other Guys, maybe the Bucs should be called the “Febreeze Brothers, because it’s feelin’ so fresh right now”.

But not even a Costco-sized tub of deodorizer could mask the rotten stench in Tampa. However, oddsmakers seem to think the Bucs could come off the bye smelling like roses. They’ve set the line at a pick for Week 6’s battle between Tampa Bay and the Philadelphia Eagles.

The Eagles’ new up-tempo offense got back on track against the winless Giants in Week 5 and now takes on another 0-fer team in Tampa Bay. Philadelphia turned to Nick Foles at QB when Michael Vick went down last Sunday, and didn’t miss a beat. In fact, the Eagles become a much steadier team with Foles in the pocket instead of the risk/reward that Vick brings to the line of scrimmage.

At least Foles is a more reliable option with much better weapons than a rookie QB being thrown to the wolves.

NFL

Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets (-1, 40.5)

Another winless team off a bye week getting love from books are the Pittsburgh Steelers, who visit the New York Jets Sunday afternoon.

The last time we saw the Steelers they were getting their knickers pulled down in front of a British audience, losing 34-27 to the Minnesota Vikings in Week 4. Pittsburgh opened as a 3-point road favorite but after the Jets went into the ATL and stole a win from the Falcons Monday, the early money has moved New York to -1.

While the Jets seem ripe with letdown potential in Week 6, there is no let-up from their defense. Gang Green is second in total yards allowed and limiting opponents to just 76.2 rushing gains per game. They’re getting to the quarterback, with 16 sacks on the season, and forced a game-changing fumble from Matt Ryan Monday night.

The Steelers offense has been stuck in mud for the first chunk of schedule and, like always, is struggling to keep QB Ben Roethlisberger clean – giving up 15 sacks through four games. Pittsburgh is also dealing with injuries on the offensive line. Left guard Ramon Foster is question with a pectoral injury Sunday.

NCAAF

Indiana Hoosiers at Michigan State Spartans (-9.5)

This battle for perhaps the grossest prize in college football - Old Brass Spittoon - saw the spread climb as high as MSU -10 before money pushed it below the key numbers.

The Hoosiers are coming off a big win over Penn State and have an offense that can stack up the yards. The Spartans, on the other hand, do little with the football and a spread hovering on double figures seems like a lot of points for a team that can’t score.

Miami (Ohio) Redhawks at UMass Minutemen (-3, 43)

How low can you go on the total for a game between the two worst offensive teams in college football?

Miami (Ohio) ranked 124th in scoring, averaging just 8.8 points through its first five winless games, and is fresh off the firing of head coach Don Treadwell. The only team behind it in the offensive stats is UMass, which is mustering a mere touchdown per contest.

According to Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, the suggested total for this listless showdown is 43 points. The Redhawks and Minutemen have a combined 1-9 over/under record on the year.

**Udog** · 10-09-2013, 10:52 AM

Beyond the BCS: Capping college football's small conferences

Some of the best betting value in college football is hiding beyond the BCS, in the small conferences. Each week, Covers Experts’ Doc’s Sports will look at the little programs that could help you make big cash this college season.

Team to watch: Ohio Bobcats (4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS)

This week: -17 vs. Central Michigan

Ohio opened its season with a blowout loss to Louisville, but the schedule has softened and the floodgates have opened. The Bobcats are averaging 35.5 points in their last four games, including a 43-3 road rout of Akron in their Mid-American Conference opener. On the other side of the ball, they have allowed a grand total of three points in their last two contests.

Saturday’s opponent, Central Michigan, is 2-4 with a quartet of double-digit losses. The Chippewas are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 against teams with winning records and 1-11 ATS in their last 13 road games against teams with winning home records. Ohio is 4-0 ATS in its last four overall and 4-1 ATS in its last five at home.

Team to beware: Air Force Falcons (1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS)

This week: +4 vs. San Diego State

The government shutdown didn’t stop last weekend’s game between Air Force and Navy, but the Falcons’ season can’t be shut down soon enough. They have lost five in a row to drop to 1-5, with four of their five setbacks coming by at least 18 points. Air Force is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 overall, 0-5 ATS in its last five home games, and 0-5 ATS in its last five against teams with losing records. They are 0-4 ATS in their last five against San Diego State.

As for the Aztecs, they handled Air Force 28-9 last season and have returned 16 starters. They average 145.5 yards per game on the ground in 2013 and are going up against a Falcons defense that gives up 222.5 rushing yards per outing. SDSU freshman Donnel Pumphrey is averaging 7.5 yards on 44 carries.

Total team: San Jose State Spartans (2-3 SU, 2-3 O/U)

This week: 58 at Colorado State

Since shutting out Sacramento State in its season opener, San Jose State has allowed at least 27 points in four straight contests, including 40 or more in two of its three losses. The Spartans are still without a slew of defensive players, including impact performers like safety Brandon Monroe, cornerback Bene Benwikere, and linebacker Derek Muaava. On the bright side, SJSU’s passing offense is churning out 306.8 yards per game behind senior quarterback David Fales.

The Over is 6-1 in the Spartans’ last seven road games, 5-1 in their last seven against Mountain West opposition, and 4-0 in their last four following a bye week. Colorado State also had an off week to prepare for this one. The Over is 7-2 in the Rams’ last nine following a bye week and 7-2 in their last nine against teams with losing records.

**Udog** · 10-09-2013, 10:55 AM

MLB
Dunkel

Pittsburgh at St. Louis
The Cardinals look to close out the series and build on their 4-0 record in Adam Wainwright's last 4 starts with the run total set at 6 1/2 or lower. St. Louis is the pick (-155) according to Dunkel, which has the Cardinals favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-155). Here are all of today's picks.

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 9

Game 951-952: Pittsburgh at St. Louis (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Cole) 15.441; St. Louis (Wainwright) 16.814
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-155); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-155); Over

MLB
Long Sheet

Wednesday, October 9

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PITTSBURGH is 97-70 (+24.8 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
PITTSBURGH is 64-40 (+19.9 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
PITTSBURGH is 79-57 (+21.8 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
PITTSBURGH is 42-27 (+14.9 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
PITTSBURGH is 39-34 (+10.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
ST LOUIS is 52-45 (-9.5 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
ST LOUIS is 73-77 (-19.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 12-11 (+2.1 Units) against ST LOUIS this season
15 of 22 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+8.0 Units)

GERRIT COLE vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
COLE is 1-0 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 1.50 and a WHIP of 0.500.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

ADAM WAINWRIGHT vs. PITTSBURGH since 1997
WAINWRIGHT is 10-4 when starting against PITTSBURGH with an ERA of 4.43 and a WHIP of 1.342.
His team's record is 12-7 (+0.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 13-2. (+11.2 units)

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MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, October 9

Pirates-Cardinals
Cole is 5-0, 1.41 in his last five starts, allowing one run on two hits in six IP in his one start vs St Louis this year- -his last three starts went over the total.

Wainwright is 4-0, 2.33 in his last four starts, 2-0, 2.57 in four starts against the Pirates this season.

Pirates won six of last eight ganes; they were held to one run in each series loss, scored 5-7 in wins-- four of their last five games went over the total.

Cardinals won 10 of their last 13 games, seven of last eight at home. In their last 14 games, over is 8-4-2.

MLB

Wednesday, October 9

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Trend Report
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8:07 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. ST. LOUIS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
Pittsburgh is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
St. Louis is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home

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MLB

Wednesday, October 9

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Pirates at Cardinals: What bettors need to know
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Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals (-148, 6.5)

Series tied 2-2.

St. Louis Cardinals manager Mike Matheny gambled and won on his rookie sensation and now gets to play his ace in the highest-stakes game of the season. Matheny will send 19-game winner Adam Wainwright to the mound against the visiting Pittsburgh Pirates on Wednesday in a winner-take-all Game 5 of the National League Division Series. Matheny resisted the urge to pitch Wainwright in Game 4 and was rewarded when 22-year-old Michael Wacha took a no-hitter into the eighth in a 2-1 victory.

Pirates manager Clint Hurdle is rolling the dice with his pitching staff, bypassing Game 1 starter A.J. Burnett in favor of rookie Gerrit Cole, who was outstanding in winning Game 2. Pittsburgh has not captured a postseason series in 34 years and faces the daunting task of winning a deciding game on the road against a team that is 7-1 in playoff elimination games since 2011. The Pirates' only hit in Game 4 came on a home run by Pedro Alvarez, his third of the series.

TV: 8:07 p.m. ET, TBS

WEATHER: Temperatures in the mid 60s with clear skies and winds blowing SE at 5 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Pirates RH Gerrit Cole (1-0, 1.50 ERA) vs. RH Adam Wainwright (1-0, 1.29)

Cole pitched more like a staff ace than a 23-year-old rookie in Game 2, allowing only one run on two hits in six innings to win his fifth consecutive start. The No. 1 overall pick in the 2011 draft has yielded five runs during his winning streak and has permitted more than five hits only once in his last six outings. He thrived away from Pittsburgh with a 4-2 mark and 2.38 ERA in seven regular-season road starts.

Wainwright was staked to an early seven-run lead and dominated in Game 1, limiting the Pirates to one run on three hits and striking out nine over seven innings. A winner of four straight starts, he stymied Pittsburgh on Sept. 7 in St. Louis, giving up only two hits in seven scoreless frames. Wainwright was 9-6 with a 2.53 ERA and four complete games in 17 home starts while holding hitters to a .217 batting average.

TRENDS:

* Over is 13-1-4 in Wainwright's last 18 starts vs. Pirates.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Over is 33-15-4 in the last 52 meetings in St. Louis.
* Pirates are 2-6 in the last eight meetings.

WALK-OFFS:

1. St. Louis was 54-27 at home during the regular season, the second-best record in the majors behind Atlanta.

2. Pirates CF Andrew McCutchen was 12-for-28 against Wainwright during the regular season and 1-for-3 off him in Game 1.

3. Both second baseman are struggling - St. Louis' Matt Carpenter is 1-for-15 and Pittsburgh's Neil Walker is 0-for-16 in the series.

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**Udog** · 10-09-2013, 10:59 AM

NHL
Dunkel

Chicago at St. Louis
The Blackhawks look to build on their 5-2 record in their last 7 games against the Blues. Chicago is the pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has the Blackhawks favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+105). Here are all of today's picks.

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 9

Game 1-2: Chicago at St. Louis (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 13.171; St. Louis 12.090
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: St. Louis (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+105); Under

Game 3-4: Montreal at Calgary (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 12.525; Calgary 11.032
Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Montreal (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-135); Over

Game 5-6: Ottawa at Los Angeles (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 10.592; Los Angeles 11.947
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-145); 5
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-145); Over

NHL
Long Sheet

Wednesday, October 9

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CHICAGO (1-0-0-1, 3 pts.) at ST LOUIS (2-0-0-0, 4 pts.) - 10/9/2013, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 328-339 ATS (+716.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 7-3 (+3.5 Units) against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 7-3-0 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=-0.8 Units, Under=-0.5 Units)

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MONTREAL (1-1-0-0, 2 pts.) at CALGARY (1-0-0-2, 4 pts.) - 10/9/2013, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MONTREAL is 32-56 ATS (+89.6 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
MONTREAL is 6-17 ATS (+23.4 Units) after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CALGARY is 2-0 (+2.2 Units) against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 2-0-0 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.0 Units)

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OTTAWA (1-0-0-1, 3 pts.) at LOS ANGELES (1-2-0-0, 2 pts.) - 10/9/2013, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OTTAWA is 14-7 ATS (+22.7 Units) in road games after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 49-76 ATS (-56.5 Units) in home games after a non-conference game since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
LOS ANGELES is 1-0 (+1.0 Units) against the spread versus OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
LOS ANGELES is 1-0-0 straight up against OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
0 of 0 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.0 Units)

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NHL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, October 9

Hot teams
-- Blues won first two games, allowing opponents 11-2.

Cold teams
-- Chicago split first two games at home, losing last game in SO.
-- Kings lost their last two games, scoring total of four goals. Ottawa split its first couple of games, scoring total of five points.
-- Calgary lost two of first three games, with losses in SO/OT. Canadiens split first two games, both at home.

Series records
-- Blackhawks are 9-4 in their last thirteen games with St Louis.
-- Kings won four of last five games with Ottawa.
-- Flames won last three games with Montreal, outscoring them 13-5.

Totals
-- Four of last five Chicago-St Louis games stayed under the total.
-- Dating back to LY, three of last four Ottawa games went over total.
-- First three Calgary games went over the total.

NHL

Wednesday, October 9

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Trend Report
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8:00 PM
CHICAGO vs. ST. LOUIS
Chicago is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games when playing Chicago
St. Louis is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Chicago

8:00 PM
MONTREAL vs. CALGARY
Montreal is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Calgary
Montreal is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Calgary
Calgary is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Calgary's last 6 games

10:30 PM
OTTAWA vs. LOS ANGELES
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Ottawa's last 6 games
Ottawa is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Los Angeles is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games at home
Los Angeles is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Ottawa

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**Udog** · 10-09-2013, 11:05 AM

NFL line watch: Jets' Monday upset moves money, spread

Each week during the pro football season, Covers Expert Art Aronson looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets (Opened +2.5)

The Steelers lost 34-27 to the Vikings in London two weeks ago and are 0-4. Clearly, the oddsmakers believe that Pittsburgh is going to win at least a couple games this season and with two whole weeks off to prepare for the hapless Jets, this seemed to have been the perfect matchup to get off the schneid.

Hold the phone. New York wasn't supposed to dominate the Falcons in Atlanta and escape with an improbable 30-28 outright victory as a 10-point underdog Monday night. But, that's exactly what happened.

Bettors have quickly jumped on New York and this line has already started to swing dramatically. As of Tuesday morning, I still see a +3 for the Jets on the board, but for the most part New York is now a 2.5-point favorite with a few 3s creeping up as well.

If you think that the home side can make the most of this situation and parlay its last performance into a tiny win skein, you'd better hurry up and get on it.

Spread to wait on

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (Opened -10.5)

If you're a fan of the Kansas City Chiefs, I'd recommend waiting a bit closer to kickoff before getting down. This line opened at -10.5 but after the Raiders flattened the Chargers 27-17 as 6.5-point dogs last week, bettors were quick to jump on the double-digit spread. We're now seeing some 9s and even 8.5s hitting the board.

At 5-0, all eyes are on Andy Reid and the Chiefs. Kansas City fans have to like their chances to be a perfect 9-0 when their team enters its bye, with very winnable games versus the Raiders this week, vs. Houston, vs. Cleveland and at Buffalo.

Total to watch

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Opened 45.5)

Looking to hammer an over? You'd better move quick. This total opened at 45.5, but 46s have started to hit the board. After a sluggish start, the Eagles would finally hit their stride and dispatch of the Giants 36-21 last week - perhaps a big reason this total has already started to climb.

Or perhaps it's because the Bucs are 0-4, off their bye week and with a new pivot under center, sharps feel that they can finally put some points on the board versus this vanilla Philadelphia secondary, after totaling just 44 over their first four games.

**Udog** · 10-09-2013, 12:09 PM

MLB
Short Sheet

Wednesday, October 9

Pittsburgh at St Louis, 5:05 ET
Cole: PITTSBURGH is 15-5 SU when playing with a day off
Hellickson: ST LOUIS is 25-12 OVER after allowing 1 run or less

NHL
Short Sheet

Wednesday, October 9

Chicago at St Louis, 8:05 ET
Chicago: 1-6 SU after playing 2 consecutive home games
St Louis: 9-0 SU in home games off 2 or more consecutive home wins

Montreal at Calgary, 8:05 ET
Montreal: 16-26 SU as a favorite
Calgary: 21-42 SU off a close loss by 1 goal to a division rival

Ottawa at LA Kings, 10:35 ET
Ottawa: 14-7 SU in road games after scoring 4 goals or more
LA Kings: 105-160 SU after a non-conference game

Announcement

Wednesday's Trends and Indexes - 10/9 (MLB, WNBA, CFL, NHL, Misc.)

Wednesday's Trends and Indexes - 10/9 (MLB, WNBA, CFL, NHL, Misc.)

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