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**Udog** · 10-08-2013, 08:18 AM

Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

Six of the more intriguing games on this week’s NFL schedule:

-- Saints @ Patriots—Undefeated Saints visit Foxboro week after Brady’s 52-game streak with a TD pass came to an end.

-- Redskins @ Cowboys—Washington is off bye, Cowboys are off epic home loss to Denver.

-- Lions @ Browns—Weeden is back under center for Browns; will Megatron play for Lions?

-- Raiders @ Chiefs—KC is 5-0, but Raiders won last six visits to Arrowhead in this great rivalry.

-- Jaguars @ Broncos—Will this be biggest spread in NFL history? Jags looked little better with WR Blackmon back last week.

-- Colts @ Chargers—Indy HC Pagano faces his brother John, DC of San Diego, which got lit up by Terrelle Pryor Sunday night.

*****

Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but...........

13) Teams that played in the first four Thursday night NFL games are 7-1 SU/ATS in their next game; only loss was when the Eagles got smoked 52-20 in Denver.

12) Houston Texans have been outscored 46-3 in second half of their last three games; in 77 NFL games this season, only twice has a team not had at least one play of 20+ yards—it was the Texans both times, in Weeks 3-5.

11) Minnesota Vikings signed Josh Freeman Sunday night, giving them a troika of mediocrity under center: Ponder-Cassel-Freeman. Cassel never even started a game in college (USC), but is probably the best of the three.

10) Tampa Bay replaced Freeman on its roster with Vandy grad Jordan Rodgers, Aaron’s younger brother. Fans are not rushing ticket windows because of this. Bucs haven’t announced yet who they’re going to replace HC Greg Schiano with next season, but odds are he’s getting the boot too, just like Freeman did.

9) Patriots lost in Cincinnati Sunday despite having a 10-yard edge in average starting field position. NFL teams with a 10+-yard advantage are 28-6 so far this season.

8) NFL meant well with all the pink stuff (breast cancer awareness) last week, but they’re wisely going back to yellow penalty flags this week; lot of times you couldn’t tell the penalty flags from players’ towels.

7) Jose Lobaton's walk-off homer into the rays' tank was the first time a Tampa Bay player has ever honered into the tank in right-center field.

6) Next year there will be 39 bowl games, which is ridiculous; 78 of the 128 I-A teams playing in a bowl. The new bowl game in the Bahamas could be interesting, but where does it stop?

5) Texas Tech QB Baker Mayfield has been playing great, but isn’t on scholarship; kid hurts his knee, can’t play. Can he get the same treatment a scholarship athlete gets? I don’t think walk-ons eat at the training table with scholarship players. If he’s done for the year (they don’t think he is) will they still give him a scholarship?

4) One of the TV analysts on a college game this week, think it was either Chris Spielman or Glen Mason, said “……95% of college football coaching is recruiting. All these guys know Xs and O’s.” Was stunned he used a figure as high as 95%- no way is that true in basketball.

3) 77 NFL games so far this season; the winning teams are a combined +80 in turnovers. Winning teams were +20 this past week.

2) Denver Broncos are 35-60 (58.3%) on third down conversions; they’ve been at 50%+ in all five games and scoring a ridiculous 46 ppg. Its been a long time since an offense was this good.

1) Carolina Panthers outscored foes 37-9 in first half this season; they haven’t allowed a first half TD in four games, and they’re still 1-3. Oy.

**Udog** · 10-08-2013, 08:18 AM

See spot. See spot bet: This week's best spot bet opportunities

Spot bets are a classic handicapping practice that has proven profitable no matter what sport you’re betting. Whether it’s a team looking past this week’s opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots.

Letdown spot

Neither the Broncos nor the Jaguars have shown any reason for bettors to doubt Denver’s ability to cover this historic spread. Peyton Manning & Co. posted 51 points in a shootout in Dallas while Jacksonville made St. Louis look like…, well, Denver in a 34-20 loss Sunday. While the points are stacked against the Broncos, the odds seem to be in their favor.

Denver, however, is coming off a huge emotional win versus the Cowboys, its only close call of the season, and will also be looking past the Jaguars – the dreaded sandwich spot, a perfect storm for situational bettors. The Broncos have a trip to Indianapolis for Manning’s homecoming in Week 7 – his first game against the Colts since they cut ties and sided with QB Andrew Luck. It seems like the only ones stopping Denver from covering this pile of chalk is itself.

Lookahead spot

For some smart kids, the Stanford Cardinal could get caught doing something very dumb this weekend. Stanford has a trip to Utah, to face the 3-2 Utes Saturday afternoon. The Cardinal, set as 8-point road favorites, are coming off a big win over Washington and have a huge meeting with UCLA in Week 8. But first, a trip to the Beehive State, which could end up being a hornet’s nest for Stanford.

Utah is coming off a tough loss to UCLA last Thursday but has had extra time to prepare for the Cardinal. The Utes have the offensive firepower to keep pace with their Pac-12 rivals and have been able to keep QB Travis Wilson relatively clean, giving up seven sacks in five games. It’s not going to be California weather in Utah this weekend, either. Temperatures will be in the low 50s – a pale comparison from the high 70s in Palo Alto.

Schedule spot

The Ottawa Senators are a long way away from Canada’s capital this week, hitting the West Coast for games against Los Angeles, San Jose, Anaheim, and Phoenix over the next seven days. The Sens open this road trip in L.A. Wednesday then play three games in four days from Saturday to Tuesday. Ottawa has yet to play at home, with its first two games on the road, and will have played 17 percent of its road schedule when it gets back from this trip on Oct. 17.

According to Ottawa blog, Sens Shots, the team has only done this type of road trip three times since the 2004-05 lockout and has failed to come away with more than three of the eight available points each trip. Overall, the Senators have earned seven of a possible 24 points in those games. In January 2012, they went 1-3 versus former Pacific Division foes during that away stretch.

**Udog** · 10-08-2013, 08:18 AM

NFL Week 6 opening line report: Will Broncos let up vs. Jags?

The mainstream media loves games like Jacksonville at Denver.

While most sports reporters shy away from the sinful spreads in their columns, this massive 28-point line has everyone talking about Week 6’s first-versus-worst matchup.

The spread has been up since last week, when the LVH Superbook in Las Vegas opened its lookahead lines. And Week 5’s results – Denver win in Dallas, Jacksonville loss in St. Louis – have done little to change the odds.

“I equate this spread to this past weekend’s Georgia State-Alabama spread (56.5),” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada based odds service The Sports Club, tells Covers. “If Denver gets up big in the first half, I don’t expect them to keep it up. There’s no incentive for it. They will pull their starters and get some rest. The line is deserved but if you’re a handicapper, you have to know that Denver won’t risk getting anyone injured.”

The Broncos also have an important conference game against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 7 – Peyton Manning’s former team. We looked at the biggest NFL spreads of the past 28 seasons last week, and favorites of more than 20 points - -20.5 to -24 - are a 0-7 ATS since 1985.

According to Covers Expert Bruce Marshall, editor of the famous Gold Sheet, the Broncos-Jags spread ties the highest line in NFL history – the expansion Atlanta Falcons hosting the Baltimore Colts (-28) in 1966. The Falcons covered, losing 19-7 in Week 10.

New York Giants at Chicago Bears (-9.5, 45.5)

Some books opened this spread as low as Chicago -7.5 but it seems like the betting market is finally starting to believe in the Giants’ 0-5 start.

“I don’t understand why they’re betting on New York. Up until Sunday, people were still hammering the Giants every week, thinking that they were due,” says Korner, who sent out a suggested line of Bears -10. “It was a mistake for any book to open this around a touchdown. Let the money take it down. The Giants have been big winners for books this season. And you never leave a hot machine at the casino.”

Green Bay Packers at Baltimore Ravens (+3, 48)

The defending Super Bowl champs are 3-point home underdogs against the Packers in Week 6. Korner says this line could go up to as high as Green Bay -4 before kickoff, but isn’t sold on the Cheese Heads being that big.

“Baltimore showed some life this weekend and is coming back around,” he says. “Green Bay wasn’t really that impressive beating a Detroit team missing its best player (WR Calvin Johnson). People have short-term memories when it comes to betting, so it would be no surprise to see this move up to 3.5 or -4.”

New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots (-1, 49.5)

Korner says he brought New Orleans as a slight road favorite to the table, but released a suggested spread of Patriots -2.5, hesitant to make New England a home underdog. But it wouldn’t surprise him to see the Saints close as the chalk.

“The Saints have that fearsome offense. And the Patriots do not,” Korner says. “If this line runs, it runs to New Orleans. It won’t go toward New England. There is nowhere to go but to New Orleans."

**Udog** · 10-08-2013, 08:19 AM

College football line watch: Patience for Kansas State backers

Each week during the college football season, renowned Las Vegas wiseguy and Covers Expert Bruce Marshall looks at the NCAAF odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (+10) at UNLV Rebels

Early in the week, we often like to identify the spreads that made an initial and pronounced move in one direction immediately after posting on late Sunday night. Especially a situation where we believe all of the “sharp” money has already been invested (which is not always the case in the earliest line moves) on one of the sides in the game. Such as UNLV, which was quickly bet up from 6.5 to 9.5 or 10 at most Nevada wagering outlets for Saturday’s game against visiting Hawaii at Sam Boyd Stadium.

There is some beneath-the-surface enthusiasm developing for Bobby Hauck’s Rebels after their recent three-game win streak, the longest at the school in a decade.

But the masses, even in hometown Las Vegas, are likely to remain skeptical for a bit longer about the Rebs, who have teased their followers before. And it’s worth noting that “local money” in Clark County includes tens of thousands of Rainbow Warrior backers who have caused the area to be labeled as the “ninth island” of the Aloha State.

The bottom line is that we expect no further serious money surges in the Rebels’ direction, and suspect that any appetite for UNLV in the marketplace was satisfied by that original dump of sharp money, which in some establishments has pushed the price up to a key number of 10.

Beyond the sharps who moved the early number, it is still hard to identify a lot of pro-Rebel sentiment among the masses.

Since we doubt the spread moves any higher, we suggest Hawaii backers do their shopping ASAP and grab that double-digit price wherever it is available.

Especially since we would not be surprised to see some downward pressure on this number later in the week.

Spread to wait on

Baylor Bears at Kansas State Wildcats (+17)

Projecting late-week money moves is always a bit tricky. Sometimes, however, the marketplace reacts exactly the opposite to the scenario outlined in our Hawaii-UNLV analysis above.

Those differences are usually when “public” teams are involved in the earliest money moves. Whereas only the sharps are likely to be in love with a team like UNLV, the masses can be counted on to support the higher-profile entries.

And if one team has indeed gone “public” in the first month of the 2013 season, it is Baylor.

And after a strong surge of initial money pushed the Bears up to 17 or 17.5 for Saturday’s game at Kansas State, we suspect the increasing public infatuation with Art Briles’ team creates more buy pressure on the Bears throughout the week.

Recent precedent suggests as much.

Consider last Saturday against visiting West Virginia, when the public kept buying and buying on Baylor all week, pushing the number from an initial 27.5 all of the way through a potential key number at 28 before settling at 30.5 (and in a few locales at 31) before kickoff. It is worth noting that Baylor was also bet up from -27 to -31 for its previous game vs. ULM.

Indeed, there has been no spread movement against the Bears yet this season.

Ironically, it was not long ago that K-State was such a “public” team, but the current version of Bill Snyder’s Wildcats have already lost three games and look to do no better than a minor bowl bid this season. And in this particular matchup, the masses might recall a dominating 52-24 Baylor win last season that effectively wrecked K-State’s hopes for the BCS title game.

Granted, this is the Bears’ first road game of the season, but the wagering public is a creature of habit. And since the public has been rewarded for continuing to back Baylor, and all but a few Bears tickets were cashed last Saturday, we suspect that pattern continues throughout the week.

The public can move prices as well, and we expect buy pressure on the Baylor Bears to push this number in the vicinity of three TDs.

At some point the sharps might jump back in and back the Wildcats (especially with possible “middle” scenarios), but K-State backers might as well wait until later in the week, especially since there is a chance that the Baylor infatuation pushes this spread up to the next key number.

Total to watch

Indiana Hoosiers at Michigan State Spartans (54.5)

We love these sorts of style clashes, and there can be no more pronounced on-field fundamental differences in this season’s Big Ten than those between Indiana and Michigan State.

Whereas the defense-minded Spartans are so conservative on the attack end that they might as well have Charles Krauthammer as offensive coordinator, Kevin Wilson’s Indiana offense is pure video football, utilizing an uptempo spread that looks more like it belongs in Conference USA than the Big Ten.

That sort of dichotomy presents some interesting possibilities in the total which has been initially posted at 54.5 for this game at East Lansing.

We suspect that the total movement will reflect which side the public is backing; a downward drift would likely suggest more Michigan State money, while a rise upward in the total would indicate an appetite in the marketplace for the Hoosiers.

Although there was immediate buy pressure for Michigan State that quickly moved the price to 9.5, totals often wait a bit longer to react.

And considering the fascinating style contrast between these sides, this figures to also be one of the most interesting totals developments of the week.

**Udog** · 10-08-2013, 08:21 AM

NBA Atlantic Division betting preview: Nets, Knicks and not much else

The Atlantic Division could be the softest group of teams in the NBA, which means plenty of pointspread value on a nightly basis. The Nets and Knicks look to be the class of the division but the Raptors could turn out to be a diamond in the rough.

Boston Celtics (2012-13: 41-40 SU, 36-42-3 ATS)

Odds To Win Division: +3300
Season Win Total: 27.5

Why Bet the Celtics: They have a new coach in Brad Stevens and eventually Rajon Rondo is going to return. In the early part of the season, there will be good value with the Celtics as they figure to be an underdog in most games. They have not won less than 30 games since the 2006-07 season.

Why Not To Bet the Celtics: The heart and soul was officially ripped out of this team with Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett both being dealt to division rival Brooklyn. It remains to be seen how well Stevens can coach at this level. Boston is not Butler. Doc Rivers struggled here before "The Big 3" came to town. The team can’t shoot and Rondo's ACL is going to be a concern.

Season Win Total Pick: Over 27.5 wins

Brooklyn Nets (2012-13: 49-33 SU, 39-40-3 ATS)

Odds To Win Division: -200
Season Win Total: 52.5

Why Bet the Nets: With the additions of Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett, the Nets become the clear favorite to win the Atlantic Division, with the rival Knicks the lone roadblock. This was a team that finished fourth in the Eastern Conference last year and should be better in 2013-14. They won 49 games before all the additions last year.

Why Not To Bet the Nets: Is Jason Kidd, who has never been a coach in his life, really the right choice to lead this team? It's an old roster with Garnett, Pierce and Jason Terry coming aboard. If Kidd is smart (again, remains to be seen), he will rest his veterans down the stretch, saving them for the playoffs. Winning the division may not require 50 wins.

Season Win Total Pick: Under 52.5 Wins

New York Knicks (2012-13: 54-28 SU, 46-34-2 ATS)

Odds To Win Division: +175
Season Win Total: 49.5

Why Bet The Knicks: They won the Atlantic wire to wire last year, winning 50-plus games for the first time in a long time. Carmelo Anthony is still the best player in the division. There just aren't many teams on their level in the Eastern Conference and the division is weak. This is one of only five teams in the East that I can predict to have a winning record with full confidence.

Why Not To Bet The Knicks: I hate this roster. Why in the world would you give all that money to J.R. Smith and then trade for Andrea Bargnani? After a fast start to last season, they tailed off significantly and were completely outclassed in the playoff loss to Indiana. They don't play defense, which is the big difference between them and the top four teams in the conference.

Season Win Total Pick: Under 49.5 Wins.

Philadelphia 76ers (2012-13: 34-48 SU, 39-42-1 ATS)

Odds To Win Division: +6600
Season Win Total: 16.5

Why Bet The 76ers: Wow. I'm searching for reasons here. On a game-by-game basis, the Sixers will be getting plenty of points from the oddsmakers, often double digits. Looking at the season win total, it is five wins lower than any other team. I suppose that indicates some value. Every team in the league won at least 20 games last year and you'd have to go back to 2009-10 to find the last time a team won fewer than 15 in a non-lockout shortened season.

Why Not To Bet The 76ers: This is a total rebuild and the franchise isn't even attempting to hide the fact that they're tanking for next year's talent-rich draft. The Sixers didn't even bother hiring a head coach until August. This was the lowest-scoring team in the league last year and they traded away their best player, Jrue Holliday. The rookie they got in return, Nerlens Noel, may not be ready to play until Christmas. This is definitely the worst team in the NBA.

Season Win Total Pick: Under 16.5 Wins.

Toronto Raptors (2012-13: 34-48 SU, 41-40-1 ATS)

Odds To Win Division: +1400
Season Win Total: 36.5

Why Bet The Raptors: There are a lot of bad teams this year in the Eastern Conference and surprisingly the Raptors are better than most of them. This was a .500 team with Rudy Gay in the lineup and if Jonas Valanciunas continues to improve, then the Raptors will have themselves a nice young core of players with DeMar DeRozan, Kyle Lowry and Amir Johnson. They hired a smart GM away from Denver (Masai Ujiri).

Why Not to Bet The Raptors: It's still a young team not ready to make the leap. Even in a weak Eastern Conference, I would be surprised to see this be a playoff team.

Season Win Total Pick: Over 36.5 Wins

**Udog** · 10-08-2013, 08:22 AM

WNBA Finals
Long Sheet

Tuesday, October 8

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ATLANTA (21 - 19) at MINNESOTA (31 - 8) - 10/8/2013, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 7-2 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 9-1 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WNBA Finals

Tuesday, October 8

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Trend Report
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8:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. MINNESOTA
Atlanta is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games at home
Minnesota is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing Atlanta

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**Udog** · 10-08-2013, 08:23 AM

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, October 8

Rays-Red Sox
Peavy is 1-0, 5.40 in his last four starts; 1-0, 4.26 in two starts this season vs Tampa Bay. Three of his last four road starts went over the total. Overall, the Red Sox are 5-5 in his ten starts for them.
Hellickson is 0-2, 9.95 in his last three starts, 1-0, 3.44 in three starts against the Red Sox this season. This is his second start in last three weeks.

Tampa Bay won eight of last ten at home, after rallying from 3-0 deficit to win Monday. Over is 6-2 in their last eight games. Rays are 8-14 vs Boston this year, 4-6 in the Trop.

Red Sox scored 61 runs in last seven games (4-3); their last eight games went over the total. Boston is 2-5 in its last seven road games.

Tigers-A's
First start in two weeks for Fister, who is 2-0, 3.86 in his last two starts; four of his last five starts stayed under total. He allowed 13 hits, seven runs in five IP in a 14-4 loss to Oakland August 28.
Straily is 4-1, 2.75 in his last six starts, first of which was that 8/28 game; three of his last four road starts went over the total. He allowed one run in six IP in that August 28 win.

Eight of Detroit's last nine games stayed under the total- -they scored 20 runs in their last ten games, going six runs in three games in this series. Tigers won six of their last nine home games.

Oakland is 6-4 vs Tigers this year, with road team winning seven of ten games. A's won 18 of last 24 games, nine of last 12 on road. 10 of their last 14 games went over the total.

MLB

Tuesday, October 8

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Trend Report
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5:07 PM
OAKLAND vs. DETROIT
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games on the road
Oakland is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Detroit
Detroit is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing at home against Oakland

8:37 PM
BOSTON vs. TAMPA BAY
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Boston's last 13 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Boston is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Boston
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 8 games

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MLB

Tuesday, October 8

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A's at Tigers: What bettors need to know
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Oakland A's at Detroit Tigers (-150, 8)

The Oakland Athletics are shutting down the Detroit Tigers offense by keeping the ball in the park. The Athletics will look to keep the Tigers homer-free for a fourth straight game and close out the best-of-five American League Division Series when they visit Detroit for Game 4 on Tuesday. The Tigers snapped a 20-inning scoreless drought in the fourth inning of Game 3 but could not keep Oakland off the board in a 6-3 setback.

Detroit finished second in the majors in scoring and seventh in home runs during the regular season but did not have a blast and totaled six runs in the first three games of the ALDS. Those six runs came in the first inning of Game 1 and the fourth inning of Game 3, leaving the Tigers scoreless in the other 25 frames. The Athletics were having nearly as much trouble with the bats until Game 3, when Josh Reddick, Brandon Moss and Seth Smith all homered.

TV: 5:07 p.m. ET, TBS

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with sunny skies. Wind will blow in from center field at 6 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Athletics RH Dan Straily (10-8, 3.96 ERA) vs. Tigers RH Doug Fister (14-9, 3.67)

Straily was not going to be a part of the ALDS rotation until A.J. Griffin came up with tendinitis in his pitching elbow in the last weekend of the regular season. The 24-year-old Straily has not pitched since Sept. 25 but closed out the regular season strong with a 3-1 record and a 2.10 ERA in five September starts. The California native allowed one run on eight hits over six innings to earn a win at Detroit on Aug. 28.

Fister struggled through some inconsistency in the second half but finished up solid with a win in his last start at Minnesota on Sept. 24. The 29-year-old endured his worst start of 2013 against Oakland on Aug. 28, when he was lit up for a season-high seven earned runs on 13 hits in five innings. Fister went seven strong innings against the Athletics in the 2012 ALDS and is 2-2 with a 2.97 ERA in six career postseason games.

TRENDS:

* Over is 15-5-1 in the last 21 meetings in Detroit.
* Athletics are 5-1 in Straily's last six starts.
* Tigers are 1-5 in their last six playoff games.
* Under is 8-0 in Tigers last eight overall.

WALK-OFFS:

1. The No. 2 and No. 3 hitters in the Athletics lineup (Jed Lowrie and Josh Donaldson) are a combined 2-for-24 with 10 strikeouts.

2. Tigers 3B Miguel Cabrera (abdominal/groin) has been held to three singles in the series and is without an extra-base hit in 12 straight games going back to the regular season.

3. Oakland closer Grant Balfour exchanged words with Detroit DH Victor Martinez in the ninth inning on Monday, leading to a brief benches-clearing situation before order was restored.

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**Udog** · 10-08-2013, 08:24 AM

NHL
Long Sheet

Tuesday, October 8

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COLORADO (2-0-0-0, 4 pts.) at TORONTO (3-0-0-0, 6 pts.) - 10/8/2013, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
COLORADO is 73-56 ATS (+130.2 Units) in a road game where where the total is 6 or more since 1996.
COLORADO is 13-5 ATS (+18.7 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
COLORADO is 140-108 ATS (+22.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the first half of the season since 1996.
TORONTO is 94-117 ATS (-68.4 Units) in home games after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game since 1996.
TORONTO is 51-75 ATS (-38.2 Units) after a 3 game unbeaten streak since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
COLORADO is 1-0 (+1.2 Units) against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
COLORADO is 1-0-0 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.0 Units)

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PHOENIX (1-1-0-0, 2 pts.) at NY ISLANDERS (1-0-0-1, 3 pts.) - 10/8/2013, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHOENIX is 138-139 ATS (+304.2 Units) in road games first half of the season since 1996.
PHOENIX is 16-5 ATS (+21.3 Units) when playing with 2 days rest over the last 3 seasons.
PHOENIX is 73-76 ATS (+174.7 Units) in road games after a division game since 1996.
PHOENIX is 16-7 ATS (+23.0 Units) after scoring 1 goal or less in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHOENIX is 1-0 (+1.0 Units) against the spread versus NY ISLANDERS over the last 3 seasons
PHOENIX is 1-0-0 straight up against NY ISLANDERS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.1 Units)

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FLORIDA (1-1-0-0, 2 pts.) at PHILADELPHIA (0-3-0-0, 0 pts.) - 10/8/2013, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLORIDA is 78-122 ATS (+204.7 Units) when playing with 2 days rest since 1996.
FLORIDA is 262-301 ATS (-93.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 4-3-0 straight up against FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+2.3 Units)

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CAROLINA (1-0-0-1, 3 pts.) at PITTSBURGH (2-0-0-0, 4 pts.) - 10/8/2013, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 4-19 ATS (+25.4 Units) after a division game over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 160-121 ATS (+20.1 Units) when playing with 2 days rest since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 4-2 (+1.3 Units) against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 4-2-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=-0.1 Units, Under=-0.6 Units)

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TAMPA BAY (1-1-0-0, 2 pts.) at BUFFALO (0-3-0-0, 0 pts.) - 10/8/2013, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 95-187 ATS (+345.0 Units) in a road game where where the total is 5.5 since 1996.
TAMPA BAY is 251-342 ATS (-113.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.
TAMPA BAY is 1-9 ATS (+10.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
BUFFALO is 236-170 ATS (+22.0 Units) vs. division opponents since 1996.
BUFFALO is 183-136 ATS (+18.2 Units) after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game since 1996.
BUFFALO is 7-14 ATS (-12.5 Units) in home games first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 4-3 (+1.0 Units) against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 4-3-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+2.9 Units)

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MINNESOTA (0-0-0-2, 2 pts.) at NASHVILLE (0-2-0-0, 0 pts.) - 10/8/2013, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NASHVILLE is 152-138 ATS (+11.8 Units) after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game since 1996.
NASHVILLE is 12-3 ATS (+8.6 Units) after scoring 1 goal or less in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NASHVILLE is 4-3 (+1.1 Units) against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
NASHVILLE is 4-3-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+4.1 Units)

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NEW JERSEY (0-1-0-1, 1 pts.) at VANCOUVER (2-1-0-0, 4 pts.) - 10/8/2013, 10:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW JERSEY is 60-41 ATS (+16.0 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW JERSEY is 16-6 ATS (+9.8 Units) on Tuesday nights over the last 3 seasons.
NEW JERSEY is 31-22 ATS (+56.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
VANCOUVER is 134-129 ATS (-69.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the first half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
VANCOUVER is 1-0 (+1.0 Units) against the spread versus NEW JERSEY over the last 3 seasons
VANCOUVER is 1-0-0 straight up against NEW JERSEY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.0 Units)

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NY RANGERS (0-1-0-0, 0 pts.) at SAN JOSE (2-0-0-0, 4 pts.) - 10/8/2013, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN JOSE is 71-72 ATS (-57.0 Units) in home games when playing with 2 days rest since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY RANGERS is 1-0 (+1.2 Units) against the spread versus SAN JOSE over the last 3 seasons
NY RANGERS is 1-0-0 straight up against SAN JOSE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.0 Units)

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**Udog** · 10-08-2013, 08:24 AM

NHL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, October 8

Hot teams
-- Maple Leafs won first three games; Colorado won its first two games, 3-1/6-1.
-- Penguins won first two games, 3-0/4-1.
-- Vancouver won its last two games, scoring 11 goals.
-- San Jose won its first two games, both by 4-1 scores.

Cold teams
-- Islanders split first two games, with road team winning both in SO. Phoenix split its first two games, both won 4-1 by the home side.
-- Flyers are 0-3 and already fired their coach. Oy. Florida split its first two games, winning opener 4-2, then losing 7-0 in St Louis.
-- Carolina split first two games, scoring two goals in each.
-- Buffalo lost its first three games, outscored 7-2. Lightning split first two games on road, scoring four goals.
-- Minnesota lost its first two games, one in OT, one in SO. Nashville lost its first two games, scoring three goals.
-- New Jersey lost its first three games, losing last two in OT.
-- Rangers split first two games, winning in LA last night.

Series records
-- Colorado/Toronto split last two games, with visitor winning both.
-- Islanders lost four of last five games with Phoenix.
-- Flyers lost three of last four games with Florida.
-- Penguins won five of last six games with Carolina.
-- Sabres won three of last four games with Tampa Bay.
-- Predators are 7-3 in last ten games vs Minnesota, but lost last two.
-- Canucks won three in row vs New Jersey, outscoring them 10-3.
-- Rangers won three of last four games with San Jose.

Totals
-- Two of first three Toronto games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Islander-Phoenix games went over total.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Philly-Florida games.
-- First two Carolina games stayed under the total.
-- Four of last five Sabre-Lightning games stayed under total.
-- Seven of last eight Nashville-Minnesota games stayed under.
-- Four of last six Devil-Canuck games stayed under the total.
-- Going back to LY, under is 6-0-1 in last seven San Jose games.

**Udog** · 10-08-2013, 08:25 AM

NHL

Tuesday, October 8

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
CAROLINA vs. PITTSBURGH
Carolina is 5-20 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Carolina's last 14 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Pittsburgh's last 12 games when playing at home against Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Pittsburgh's last 23 games at home

7:00 PM
COLORADO vs. TORONTO
Colorado is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Toronto
Colorado is 2-16 SU in its last 18 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing at home against Colorado
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Toronto's last 9 games

7:00 PM
FLORIDA vs. PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Florida's last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Florida is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 8 games when playing Florida
Philadelphia is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Florida
See more trends!

7:00 PM
PHOENIX vs. NY ISLANDERS
Phoenix is 3-4-2 SU in their last 9 games ,when playing on the road against NY Islanders
Phoenix is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games on the road
NY Islanders are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Islanders last 6 games when playing at home against Phoenix

7:30 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. BUFFALO
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Tampa Bay's last 11 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing Buffalo
Buffalo is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Buffalo's last 11 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay

8:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. NASHVILLE
Minnesota is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
Minnesota is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Nashville is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Nashville's last 6 games when playing at home against Minnesota

10:00 PM
NEW JERSEY vs. VANCOUVER
New Jersey is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
New Jersey is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Vancouver
Vancouver is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against New Jersey
Vancouver is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing New Jersey

10:30 PM
NY RANGERS vs. SAN JOSE
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of the NY Rangers last 8 games when playing San Jose
NY Rangers are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Jose's last 7 games
San Jose is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games

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**Udog** · 10-08-2013, 09:32 AM

NHL
Dunkel

Phoenix at NY Islanders
The Islanders look for their first win of the season and build on their 10-3 record in their last 13 games when playing on 2 days of rest. New York is the pick (-130) according to Dunkel, which has the Islanders favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (-130). Here are all of today's picks.

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 8

Game 51-52: Colorado at Toronto (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 12.238; Toronto 11.317
Dunkel Line & Total: Colorado by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto (-140); 6
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+120); Under

Game 53-54: Phoenix at NY Islanders (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 10.457; NY Islanders 12.057
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Islanders by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: NY Islanders (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (-130); Over

Game 55-56: Florida at Philadelphia (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 10.559; Philadelphia 10.239
Dunkel Line & Total: Florida by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-160); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+140); Over

Game 57-58: Carolina at Pittsburgh (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 10.585; Pittsburgh 12.533
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-210); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-210); Under

Game 59-60: Tampa Bay at Buffalo (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 11.969; Buffalo 11.171
Dunkel Line & Total: Tampa Bay by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Buffalo (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+100); Under

Game 61-62: Minnesota at Nashville (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 10.128; Nashville 11.564
Dunkel Line & Total: Nashville by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Nashville (-115); 5
Dunkel Pick: Nashville (-115); Over

Game 63-64: New Jersey at Vancouver (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 11.381; Vancouver 10.226
Dunkel Line & Total: New Jersey by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-180); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (+160); Under

Game 65-66: NY Rangers at San Jose (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 11.654; San Jose 13.142
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-160); 5
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (-160); Over

**Udog** · 10-08-2013, 09:34 AM

WNBA Finals
Dunkel

Atlanta at Minnesota
The Dream look to bounce back from their Game 1 loss and build on their 19-7 ATS record in their last 26 games when playing on 1 days rest. Atlanta is the pick (+10 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Lynx favored by only 8. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+10 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 8

Game 653-654: Atlanta at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 114.485; Minnesota 122.363
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 8; 159
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 10 1/2; 153 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+10 1/2); Over

MLB
Dunkel

Boston at Tampa Bay
The Red Sox look to close out the series and take advantage of a Tampa Bay team that is 1-6 in Jeremy Hellickson's last 7 starts versus a team with a winning record. Boston is the pick (-115) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Sox favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Boston (-115). Here are all of today's picks.

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 8

Game 935-936: Oakland at Detroit (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Straily) 16.541; Detroit (Fister) 14.733
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 2; 9
Vegas Line: Detroit (-160); 8
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+140); Over

Game 937-938: Boston at Tampa Bay (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Peavy) 17.718; Tampa Bay (Hellickson) 16.369
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Boston (-115); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-115); Under

**Udog** · 10-08-2013, 10:10 AM

NHL
Long Sheet

Tuesday, October 8

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BOSTON (99 - 66) at TAMPA BAY (94 - 73) - 8:35 PM
JAKE PEAVY (R) vs. JEREMY HELLICKSON (R)
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 116-118 (-22.8 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
PEAVY is 1-8 (-9.8 Units) against the money line when playing on Tuesday over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
TAMPA BAY is 520-597 (+27.5 Units) against the money line against division opponents since 1997.
TAMPA BAY is 189-186 (+23.7 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1997.
BOSTON is 99-66 (+19.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
BOSTON is 64-44 (+11.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
BOSTON is 44-21 (+20.3 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
TAMPA BAY is 34-43 (-19.1 Units) against the money line when playing on Tuesday over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 14-8 (+7.2 Units) against TAMPA BAY this season
14 of 22 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+4.8 Units)

JAKE PEAVY vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
PEAVY is 3-1 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 4.91 and a WHIP of 1.364.
His team's record is 3-3 (+0.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-2. (+2.0 units)

JEREMY HELLICKSON vs. BOSTON since 1997
HELLICKSON is 4-2 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 3.93 and a WHIP of 1.282.
His team's record is 7-5 (+2.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 7-5. (+1.2 units)

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OAKLAND (98 - 67) at DETROIT (94 - 71) - 5:05 PM
DANIEL STRAILY (R) vs. DOUG FISTER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 98-67 (+20.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
OAKLAND is 10-4 (+9.7 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +150 this season.
OAKLAND is 45-37 (+10.4 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
OAKLAND is 95-63 (+21.3 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
OAKLAND is 65-45 (+12.8 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
OAKLAND is 58-39 (+12.0 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
OAKLAND is 44-30 (+16.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
OAKLAND is 21-12 (+10.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
STRAILY is 17-7 (+10.3 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
DETROIT is 94-71 (-13.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
DETROIT is 32-29 (-14.4 Units) against the money line in day games this season.
DETROIT is 90-68 (-13.8 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 6-4 (+4.0 Units) against DETROIT this season
7 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+3.7 Units)

DANIEL STRAILY vs. DETROIT since 1997
STRAILY is 1-0 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 1.50 and a WHIP of 1.667.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

DOUG FISTER vs. OAKLAND since 1997
FISTER is 5-5 when starting against OAKLAND with an ERA of 3.12 and a WHIP of 1.295.
His team's record is 6-7 (-0.8 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 6-6. (-0.8 units)

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**Udog** · 10-08-2013, 10:29 AM

OF course, the previous post is the MLB long sheet, not NHL. Is it going to be one of those days?

Announcement

Tuesday's Trends and Indexes - 10/8 (MLB, WNBA, CFL, NHL, Misc.)

Tuesday's Trends and Indexes - 10/8 (MLB, WNBA, CFL, NHL, Misc.)

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