NFL week 6

[roccodean]

2* Houston -7
Think this closes close to 10 so would get asap

[roccodean]

2* OAK +8 or better

[BigWeiner]

I like Houston also

[roccodean]

2* Pitt +1 or better. Waiting to see where line goes

[roccodean]

1* 6.5 point tease: Houston -1/Pitt +7.5 (-120)

[roccodean]

PIT

Pitt has looked pitiful and I think they are but this is a great spot. Winless dogs off a bye are great plays historically and the Jets are coming off a short week primetime 10 point dog win. I don't believe in Gino Smith especially with 2 weeks for Dick Lebeau to prepare and throw different schemes at him...I foresee 2+ turnovers. Also, Pitt hasn't forced a turnover all year and I think it changes this week.

2*SD---waiting to get +3

SD is in a great spot here to get the win and cover. My calculated line is SD -1. There is an amazing 30-3 ATS trend favoring SD (based on losing as a big favorite last week). Indy is prime for a let down after coming off a big win last week. I would wait to get SD +3, but I think they get the SU win also.

OAK

Vegas is handing us 2 points over a key number here. I have my calculated line as KC -6.3. KC is undefeated and a solid team (they have played subpar competition) but their run D is 30th in YPR and OAK is 3rd in YPR offense...I see Pryor having a big game. Their is a solid 65-37 ATS trend favoring Oak.

HOU

When ESPN jumps off a team and continually speaks negatively of them (as is the case with Schaub and Houston), it is usually time to bet them. Scuab's career int rat before this year was 2.4%, this year it is 4.2%. This is unlikely to continue at this high rate. The Rams are pitiful. If the Jags weren't as bad as they are we would be hearing much more how bad they are. They are 30th in YPR and YPPA offense and 25th/28th in run/pass defense. Houston qualifies for a great 52-25 ATS trend based on their blowout and an even better 50-19 ATS trend playing on bigger favs that scored less than 7 last week. Houston rolls and wins by 14+.

[roccodean]

1* Ariz +10.5 over SF
My calculated line is SF -8 so the value is on Arizona. I have a great trend favoring Ariz based on SF blowing out 2 teams in a row (leads to an inflated line) that is 38-11 ATS. Ariz's offense is bad but their D is very good (3rd vs the run and 14th vs the pass). I look for their D to keep it close and get the cover.