NFL week 5

[roccodean]

More to come and analysis

1* Oak at SD (probable upgrade to 2*)
I got at +5 from sportsbook but like it +4 or better

[Kaptain]

good luck sunday

[roccodean]

1* Jax +11.5
I am going to make this simple...both teams suck and the Rams suck less but shouldn't be favored by double digits. Statistically they are only slightly better than the Jags but we are getting great line value here because of all the hype that the Jags are the worst team in history. rams are 31st in YPR and 30 in YPPA. Defensively, they are 25th in YPR and 28th in YPPA. The Jags stats are equally bad. The Jags qualify for a good trend: teams that lose by 25+ vs the spread are 112-68-5 ATS. I would hope that the Jags still have some pride and they see this as one of the few games they could actually win this year.

Oak
SD should not be a road favorite over a FG in this game. Their D is terrible, the are 30th in YPR allowed and 30th in YPPA allowed. Meanwhile, Oakland is 3rd in YPR (this obviously includes Pryor's rushes). There is a great 65% ATS trend favoring Oak based SD winning as a dog and now being a road fav this week. My calculated line is SD -2.5 so there is value on Oak.

2* 6 point tease: Cinci +7.5/GB -1
(Cin is +1.5 right now on sportsbook)

[roccodean]

1* Dallas +9 over Denver (sportsbook.ag)
Play at +7.5 or better
Just when you think a team is unbeatable...it is time to bet against them because "everyone" thinks this hence you get an inflated line (and value). In fact, because of this I have a trend favoring Dallas that is 19-2-1 ATS (and a 9-1 subset of this)! It plays against teams that won by 14+ 3 weeks in a row (and a couple other factors). Denver looks very good early on, but I think Dallas is an above average team that shouldn't be getting over a TD at home. Denver's one weakness is that they are 22nd in YPPA allowed and I think Romo and crew is going to have a big game. I have Denvers SOS as 3rd worst in league as they have faced Balt,NYG, Oak, Phil (all below average teams). My calculated line is Denver -6...give me the value over the TD with Dallas.

[LeRoy]

Gl rocco on the action this is the week to start a hot streak

[flashypants]

Gl pal

[jt4545]

Good luck

[Sirporkie]

GL Rocco

[roccodean]

thanks all..2-1 heading into oak..line still climbing...might even get 7 at sportsbook

[kbsooner21]

Nice work Rocco

[roccodean]

thanks all