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**Udog** · 10-02-2013, 09:58 AM

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

Six of the more intriguing NFL games this weekend.......

-- Bills @ Browns (-4.5)-- Can Hoyer go to 3-0 as the starting QB?

-- Chiefs (-2.5) @ Titans-- KC has 12 takeaways; Titans haven't turned ball over yet.

-- Seahawks (-2.5) @ Colts-- Seattle finding ways to win on road.

-- Saints @ Bears (-1)-- Sean Payton played QB for Bears' replacement team during 1987 strike.

-- Chargers (-4) @ Raiders-- Game moved to 11:30 Sunday night because of time it takes to switch field from baseball configuration to football.

-- Broncos (-7) @ Dallas-- Can Monte Kiffin come up with wrinkle to the Tampa 2 defense that Manning didn't see practicing in Indianapolis?

*****

Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud.........

13) How can you look at what goes on in American politics and not think that all politicians are a bunch of weasels? It is unfathomable that the government has been shut down but Congressmen are still being paid. If I refused to do my job, I wouldn’t get paid and neither would you.

12) Speaking of which, my doorbell rings Sunday around 3:15; it’s a couple and their little girl, maybe 8-9 years old- the mother is running for town council, and they want to talk to me. Ha!!!!

The husband has a Bronx Bomber hat on, making it even worse. I take their flyer, tell them I’ll vote for her but (not to be rude) I’d rather watch football than talk to her. Politicians makes me want to puke.

11) CB Bucknor is working the A’s-Tigers playoff series, despite almost universal acclaim (by MLB players) as being the worst umpire in the big leagues. From my standpoint as an A’s fan, it could be a lot worse, could be Angel Hernandez or Kerwin Danley, so I’m OK with it, but isn’t there a merit system for umpires making it to the postseason?

10) In its last two games, Houston Texans were outscored 33-0 in second half; Matt Schaub has thrown a pick-6 in three consecutive games. Texan fans are not amused- tough game this week at Candlestick, too.

9) Point guard Angel Rodriguez transferred from Kansas State to Miami, to be closer to a sick relative, but he didn’t put in a waiver to play this season, probably because Hurricanes figure to be a lot better next year and he only has one season left to play. Rodriguez is a very good get for Jim Larranaga’s ‘canes.

8) ESPN hired George Karl as a game analyst and mercifully added Doug Collins to its God-awful pregame/halftime show, replacing Michael Wilbon. Collins is excellent on TV; curious to hear Karl during games. I’m guessing he’ll be very good.

7) Cubs fired the first volley in the Joe Girardi sweepstakes by firing manager Dale Sveum, like it was his fault the team stinks. Sveum didn’t pay Edwin Jackson $13M a year, but he gets the gate anyway. Where will they turn if Girardi stays in the Bronx?

6) Been doing college hoop research, and I’m thinking, how did Ben Howland not get another coaching job? Guy has been in three Final Fours, he won the Pac-12 regular season LAST YEAR but still got fired? Why?

For UCLA, this was simply change for the sake of change, because Steve Alford isn’t an upgrade over Howland, but seems like Bruin fans simply got tired of Howland. We’ll see if he surfaces on TV this winter.

5) Jaguars play at Denver October 13: pointspread was expected to be 27.5 or 28, the biggest one ever, but it has opened in Las Vegas at +26.

4) Twins lost 93+ games three years in a row, but gave manager Ron Gardenhire a 2-year extension; good for them, since they obviously think they’ve got a good manager. Minnesota has a couple bigtime prospects coming to the majors in the next year or so- they should improve in 2014, but since neither one of them pitches, how much better will they get?

3) Falcons are 1-3, but had ball on 3-yard line in last 1:00 to beat Saints, on 13-yard line in last 1:00 to tie New England, but didn’t score either time- they allowed Miami to score in last minute in that loss, so you’re looking at a 1-3 team that just as easily could be 4-0. Small margin between winning and losing in the NFL.

2) Speaking of which, best red zone team offenses so far, in terms of points per possession:
Miami 6.27, Rams 5.90, Carolina 5.86. Chargers 5.77.
Best red zone defenses: Chiefs 3.25, Panthers/Bucs 3.29 and Seattle 3.36.

1) Rough end to the season for the Reds, who lost their last six games while scoring a total of ten runs. Francisco Liriano was winless in four starts vs Cincinnati during the season, but was masterful last night.

**Udog** · 10-02-2013, 09:59 AM

Football lines that make you go hmmm...

Did we learn nothing from last week?

The New England Patriots, one of just five undefeated NFL teams, are once again priced at a pick’em for Week 5’s trip to Cincinnati.

The Patriots found themselves in pick range visiting the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday Night Football last week, and handled the Falcons with a 30-23 win. The Patriots closed as big as 3-point road underdogs in that game.

New England finally has a victory it can hang its hat on after an unimpressive first three weeks and could return receiving weapons WR Danny Amendola and TE Rob Gronkowski in time for Week 5. Both were questionable heading into last weekend and would be a major difference for a Pats offense that has struggled to find traction.

The Bengals, at 2-2, have wins over Pittsburgh and Green Bay, but also fell to the Cleveland Browns last weekend. Cincinnati failed to find the end zone in the loss to the Browns and QB Andy Dalton isn’t at the top of his game, with five TDs and four INTs on the year. The Bengals do get a break with New England star DT Vince Wilfork going down with a season-ending Achilles injury Sunday.

Some books are staying on the fence with this spread while others have moved the Bengals as many as two points to -2.

Grabbing the Pats as underdogs two weeks in a row is almost unheard of. The last that happened was in Weeks 16 and 17 of the 2006 season when New England was resting up for the playoffs. The Patriots won and covered in both those outings.

Houston Texans at San Francisco 49ers (-7, 42.5)

Defense is headed the way of the Dodo bird in the NFL. Up-tempo offenses and no-huddle attacks are the pace of the league, leaving stop units to huff and puff in a struggle to keep up.

Teams known for locking down opponents are getting burned for big numbers, including the Houston Texans and San Francisco 49ers. Both squads ranked among the top defenses in the league last year, but haven’t been able to match that stoutness through the first four games of the 2013 schedule.

That's what makes this low 42.5-point total so puzzling. The Texans, who allowed only 21.4 points per game last year, are giving up 26.2 this season – 23rd in the league. The Niners are also suffering from a defensive downgrade, budging for 23.8 points per outing (19th) after limiting foes to just 19.1 last year.

Each team has proven it can put up points with the football. Houston scored a total of 61 points in its first two games and bullied the top defense in the NFL for 20 points in an OT loss to Seattle Sunday. San Francisco finally got untracked offensively in Thursday’s win over St. Louis, exploding for 35 points.

That 42.5-point over/under is on par with other Week 5 totals involving teams like the Rams and Jaguars, Bills and Browns, and Panthers and Cardinals.

NCAAF

Maryland Terrapins at Florida State Seminoles (-15)

The Terrapins are the most interesting team in college football.

They may not be running with the bulls or deep-sea diving with super models while pounding back some Dos Equis, but man do they ever make you wonder. This is their second go-around in “Football Lines That Make You Go Hmmm…” and we’re just into October.

Maryland is 4-0 and coming off a bye week following a 37-0 trashing of West Virginia two weeks ago. The Terps offense has steamrolled opponents for 39.8 points a game while the defense has done a good job limiting foes to only 10.2 point against. They haven’t built their stats against the toughest teams but neither has Florida State, which also enters the weekend at 4-0.

The Seminoles own the No. 8 ranking in the land and boast an offensive attack that is hanging 51.2 points on the opposition each week. But, those high scores came against the likes of Pitt, Nevada, FCS Bethune Cookman, and Boston College – which put a scare in FSU during last week’s 48-34 win. Florida State failed to cover as big 28.5-point favorites.

The Noles have a bye next week to help them prepare for a showdown with fellow ACC favorite Clemson in Week 8. However, Saturday’s date with Maryland could turn out to be just as important to the makeup of the conference.

**Udog** · 10-02-2013, 10:01 AM

MLB
Dunkel

Tampa Bay at Cleveland
The Rays look to follow up their 5-2 win over Texas in the tiebreaker on Monday and build on their 13-3 record in Alex Cobb's last 16 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in the previous game. Tampa Bay is the pick (-115) according to Dunkel, which has the Rays favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-115). Here are all of today's picks.

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 2

Game 903-904: Tampa Bay at Cleveland (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Cobb) 16.700; Cleveland (Salazar) 15.316
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-115); 7
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-115); Under

MLB
Long Sheet

Wednesday, October 2

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TAMPA BAY (92 - 71) at CLEVELAND (92 - 70) - 8:05 PM
ALEX COBB (R) vs. DANNY SALAZAR (R)
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 4-11 (-9.6 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off this season.
CLEVELAND is 92-70 (+25.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
CLEVELAND is 51-30 (+16.8 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
CLEVELAND is 89-67 (+23.1 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
CLEVELAND is 58-50 (+11.2 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
CLEVELAND is 56-49 (+7.8 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
CLEVELAND is 56-34 (+19.0 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
TAMPA BAY is 15-6 (+8.0 Units) against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -125 this season.
CLEVELAND is 106-111 (-34.5 Units) against the money line in home games when playing on Wednesday since 1997.
CLEVELAND is 38-73 (-26.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 4-2 (+1.1 Units) against CLEVELAND this season
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.3 Units)
ALEX COBB vs. CLEVELAND since 1997
COBB is 2-1 when starting against CLEVELAND with an ERA of 2.70 and a WHIP of 1.501.
His team's record is 2-1 (+1.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-2. (-1.2 units)
DANNY SALAZAR vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
No recent starts.

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MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, October 2

AL Wild Card game

-- Cobb made 22 starts, missing two months when he was hit in the head by a line drive; he is 3-0, 1.16 in his last three starts. Cobb blanked Tribe in his first start this season April 6, allowing four hits in 7.1 IP.
-- Rookie Salazar made 10 starts this year, hitting 90-pitch mark once; he is 1-1, 2.52 in his last five starts, and did not face Tampa Bay.

Tampa Bay went 13-5 since Sept. 12 to get here; they're 8-3 in last 11 games on foreign soil. Cleveland won 10 games in row and 15 of last 17 to get here

Rays are 4-2 vs Indians this season; four of six games ended in shutouts, with Tampa Bay not scoring in either loss. Teams last met on June 2, so lot changed for both sides since then. Over was 3-3 in those six games, with Rays winning two of three in both series.

Three of last four Tampa games went over total, as have five of Cleveland's last seven games. Rays played in Toronto Sunday, Texas Monday and now here; Indians haven't played since Sunday.

MLB

Wednesday, October 2

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Trend Report
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8:07 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. CLEVELAND
Tampa Bay is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Tampa Bay is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Cleveland is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Tampa Bay
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

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MLB

Wednesday, October 2

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Rays at Indians: What bettors need to know
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Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Indians (+104, 7)

The Cleveland Indians raced through September with the best record in the major leagues, including a 10-game winning streak to close out the regular season. Their reward for that finishing kick is hosting the Tampa Bay Rays in a one-game American League wild card playoff on Wednesday for the right to play the top-seeded Boston Red Sox in the Division Series. The Rays earned their entry Monday by winning 5-2 at Texas in a one-game tiebreaker.

That game at Texas forced Tampa Bay to use ace David Price for all nine innings, leaving him unavailable to face Cleveland. The Indians would have preferred to save Ubaldo Jimenez for Wednesday, but an uncertain status forced him to go in his regular rotation spot Sunday. Cleveland feasted on sub-.500 opponents in September but was 36-52 in the regular season against teams with winning records, including 2-4 against the Rays.

TV: 8:07 p.m. ET, TBS

WEATHER: Temperatures in the low 70s with partly cloudy skies and winds blowing NE at 2 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Rays RH Alex Cobb (11-3, 2.76 ERA) vs. Indians RH Danny Salazar (2-3, 3.12)

Cobb finished up the regular season strong with wins in each of his last three starts. The Boston native surrendered a total of three runs on 23 1/3 innings while striking out 26 in those three turns and yielded more than two earned runs just twice in his last nine starts. Cobb made his first start of the season against Cleveland on April 6 and scattered four hits in 7 1/3 scoreless innings to earn the win.

The Indians monitored Salazar carefully over the final month of the season, pulling him from games before 90 pitches. The 23-year-old Dominican struck out eight and allowed two runs on six hits over 5 1/3 innings on Sept. 25 before being lifted after 89 pitches - his highest total since Aug. 7. Salazar will be backed up by a bullpen that now includes former ace Justin Masterson.

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Cleveland.
* Rays are 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
* Rays are 8-22 in the last 30 meetings in Cleveland.

WALK-OFFS:

1. Rays 3B Evan Longoria is 12-for-29 with three home runs and 11 RBIs in his last seven games.

2. Cleveland 2B Jason Kipnis closed out the regular season 13-for-28 during a seven-game hitting streak.

3. Tampa Bay 1B James Loney led the majors in road batting average at .351.

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**Udog** · 10-02-2013, 10:03 AM

NHL
Dunkel

Buffalo at Detroit
The Red Wings look to build on their 9-1 record in the last 10 game versus the Sabres in Detroit. Detroit is the pick (-185) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Wings favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-185). Here are all of today's picks.

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 2

Game 51-52: Toronto at Philadelphia (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 11.853; Philadelphia 10.827
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+115); Over

Game 53-54: Buffalo at Detroit (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 11.207; Detroit 12.698
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-185); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-185); Under

Game 55-56: Anaheim at Colorado (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 11.542; Colorado 10.187
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Colorado (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (+100); Over

NHL
Long Sheet

Wednesday, October 2

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TORONTO (29-19-0-7, 65 pts.) at PHILADELPHIA (23-22-0-3, 49 pts.) - 10/2/2013, 7:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 5-2 (+2.7 Units) against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 5-2-0 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
6 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+4.6 Units)

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BUFFALO (21-21-0-6, 48 pts.) at DETROIT (31-21-0-10, 72 pts.) - 10/2/2013, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 236-168 ATS (+37.7 Units) vs. division opponents since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 2-0 (+2.0 Units) against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 2-0-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+2.0 Units)

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ANAHEIM (33-13-0-9, 75 pts.) at COLORADO (16-25-0-7, 39 pts.) - 10/2/2013, 9:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ANAHEIM is 9-27 ATS (+39.5 Units) first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
COLORADO is 4-3 (+2.1 Units) against the spread versus ANAHEIM over the last 3 seasons
COLORADO is 4-3-0 straight up against ANAHEIM over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.5 Units)

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NHL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, October 2

Hot teams
-- Maple Leafs won their opener 4-3 last night in Montreal.

Cold teams
Season is starting this week, so not a lot of info yet; we'll have knowledge here every night from now until the Stanley Cup is hoisted next spring.......

Series records
-- Flyers won 10 of their last 13 games with Toronto (1-2 LY).
-- Red Wings won four in row, seven of last eight games with Buffalo.
-- Ducks won eight of their last eleven visits to Denver.

Totals
-- Six of last seven Maple Leaf-Flyer games went over the total.
-- Five of last six Buffalo-Detroit had five goals scored.
-- Five of last six Anaheim-Colorado games stayed under the total.

NHL

Wednesday, October 2

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Trend Report
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7:30 PM
TORONTO vs. PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 7 games
Toronto is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games when playing Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Philadelphia is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games when playing Toronto

8:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. DETROIT
Buffalo is 1-11 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Buffalo is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Detroit is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Buffalo

9:30 PM
ANAHEIM vs. COLORADO
Anaheim is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Anaheim is 18-6 SU in its last 24 games when playing Colorado
Colorado is 6-18 SU in its last 24 games
Colorado is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Anaheim

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**Udog** · 10-02-2013, 02:54 PM

MLB
Short Sheet

Wednesday, October 2

Tampa Bay at Cleveland, 8:05 ET
Cobb: Tampa Bay 4-11 SU when playing with a day off
Salazar: Cleveland 23-9 SU in home games after allowing 2 runs or less

**Udog** · 10-02-2013, 02:54 PM

NHL
Short Sheet

Wednesday, October 2

Toronto at Philadelphia, 7:35 ET
Toronto: Toronto 12-2 OVER off a road win scoring 4 or more goals
Philadelphia: 22-15 SU in a home game where where the total is 5.5

Buffalo at Detroit, 8:05 ET
Buffalo: 9-19 SU in a road game where where the total is 5.5
Detroit: 27-9 SU in a home game where where the total is 5.5

Anaheim at Colorado, 9:35 ET
Anaheim: 10-14 SU in a road game where where the total is 5.5
Colorado: 21-19 SU first half of the season

Announcement

Wednesday's Trends and Indexes - 10/2 (MLB, WNBA, CFL, NHL, Misc.)

Wednesday's Trends and Indexes - 10/2 (MLB, WNBA, CFL, NHL, Misc.)

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