The Bum's October College Football POD's+Trends+Stats+News !

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Tuesday, October 22

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UL Lafayette at Arkansas State: What bettors need to know
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

UL Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns at Arkansas State Red Wolves (+2.5)

When it comes to offensive production, the Arkansas State Red Wolves have been as inconsistent as it gets. The Red Wolves will need to be at their explosive best Tuesday night as they welcome one of the nation's most formidable offenses in the UL Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns. Arkansas State is coming off an impressive 48-24 drubbing of the Idaho Vandals 10 days ago but will be in tough against the Cajuns, who have reeled off four consecutive victories.

When they put points on the board, the Red Wolves have a great deal of success - and when they don't, a loss is nearly automatic. Arkansas State is averaging better than 50 points per game in its three victories - including a 62-11 laugher in its season opener against Arkansas-Pine Bluff - and fewer than 12 points in its three losses. UL Lafayette has steamrolled its way to the top of the Sun Belt Conference standings, averaging 47.5 points during its winning streak.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN2.

LINE: Arkansas State has held steady as a 2.5-point home underdog.

WEATHER: Temperatures at Liberty Bank Stadium will be in the low-50s with clear skies and wind blowing diagonally out of the southwest at 8 mph.

ABOUT LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE (4-2, 2-0 Sun Belt Conference): After relying on the arm of standout quarterback Terrance Broadway in consecutive wins over Akron and Texas State, the Ragin' Cajuns used a stout ground attack to subdue the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 37-20 in their previous game. Alonzo Harris led the way with 115 rushing yards and a pair of scores as UL Lafayette finished with three touchdowns on the ground, amassing 198 of its 254 rushing yards in the opening half. Broadway ranks third in the conference in quarterback efficiency, while Harris is third in rushing yards per game.

ABOUT ARKANSAS STATE (3-3, 1-0): Senior quarterback Adam Kennedy had the game of his career last time out, erupting for a career-high 375 passing yards and four touchdowns in the win over the Vandals. The strong performance vaulted the Utah State transfer into third in the Sun Belt in passing yardage while earning him conference offensive player of the week honors. David Oku led the ground attack with 69 yards and a touchdown, the 24th of his four-year collegiate career. The Red Wolves have one of the best third-down conversion rates in the country, making good on 48 percent of their attempts.

TRENDS:

* UL Lafayette is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a SU win.
* Arkansas State is 0-4-1 ATS in its last five games overall.
* Over is 18-8 in Ragin' Cajuns' last 26 October games.
* Under is 22-7-2 in Red Wolves' last 31 games against teams with winning records.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Red Wolves cruised to a 50-27 victory in their previous encounter last season at Lafayette. The Ragin' Cajuns lead the all-time series 21-19-1.

2. Arkansas State has turned the ball over just six times in its first six games.

3. Red Wolves WR Julian Jones needs just 49 receiving yards to reach 1,000 for his career.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Dunkel

Week 9

UL-Lafayette at Arkansas State
The Ragin' Cajuns look to build on their 21-8 ATS record in their last 29 road games. UL-Lafayette is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Ragin' Cajuns favored by 15 1/2. Dunkel Pick: UL-Lafayette (-2 1/2).

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 22

Game 101-102: UL-Lafayette at Arkansas State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UL-Lafayette 89.563; Arkansas State 73.953
Dunkel Line: UL-Lafayette by 15 1/2; 73
Vegas Line: UL-Lafayette by 2 1/2; 67
Dunkel Pick: UL-Lafayette (-2 1/2); Over




NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 9

Tuesday's game

UL-Lafayette scored 40 ppg in winning last three games vs I-AA teams, with wins by 5-24-7 points; they upset Western Kentucky last Tuesday on road-- Cajuns lost 50-27/30-21 in last two games vs Arkasnas State, in series where underdogs covered three of last four meetings. Host won all five of ASU's games vs I-A foes; Red Wolves scored 48-41 points in winning its two I-A home games, 41-34 (-7.5) over Troy, 48-24 (-26.5) over Idaho in their last game, ten days ago. ASU allowed 301-329-239 rushing yards in its three losses, an average of 98.7 in its wins. ULL ran ball ran ball for 212-254 yards in last two games-- only teams they lost to were BCS schools (Arkansas/Kansas State). ULL lost five of last six visits here, with losses by 9-31-3-6-4 points.


-----------------------------------------------------------


NCAAF
Short Sheet

Week 9

Tuesday, October 22

LA Lafayette at Arkansas State, 8:00 ET
LA Lafayette: 8-1 OVER off a road game
Arkansas St: 13-4 ATS against conference opponents

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

10/19/13 23-*25-*2 47.92% -*2250 Detail
10/18/13 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
10/17/13 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
10/15/13 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail
10/12/13 49-*43-*1 53.26% +*850 Detail
10/11/13 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail
10/10/13 3-*3-*0 50.00% -*150 Detail
10/05/13 56-*43-*1 56.57% +*4350 Detail
10/04/13 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
10/03/13 5-*1-*0 83.33% +*1950 Detail

Totals 141-*122-*4 53.61% +3400


Tuesday, October 22

Game Score Status Pick Amount

UL Lafayette - 8:00 PM ET UL Lafayette -2.5 500 POD # 2

Arkansas State - Under 69 500 POD # 1

[StarDust Bum]

Sweet way to start the week............

[Kaptain]

Brudda BUM

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

10/19/13 23-*25-*2 47.92% -*2250 Detail
10/18/13 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
10/17/13 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
10/15/13 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail
10/12/13 49-*43-*1 53.26% +*850 Detail
10/11/13 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail
10/10/13 3-*3-*0 50.00% -*150 Detail
10/05/13 56-*43-*1 56.57% +*4350 Detail
10/04/13 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
10/03/13 5-*1-*0 83.33% +*1950 Detail

Totals 141-*122-*4 53.61% +3400


Tuesday, October 22

Game Score Status Pick Amount

UL Lafayette - 8:00 PM ET UL Lafayette -2.5 500 POD # 2

Arkansas State - Under 69 500 POD # 1

and yet, ANOTHER, great DOUBLE POD call yesterday.........great job.....keep a slamming the BOOK Bum.....thanks

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday, October 24

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


KENTUCKY (1 - 5) at MISSISSIPPI ST (3 - 3) - 10/24/2013, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KENTUCKY is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
KENTUCKY is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
KENTUCKY is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
KENTUCKY is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MISSISSIPPI ST is 2-0 against the spread versus KENTUCKY over the last 3 seasons
MISSISSIPPI ST is 2-0 straight up against KENTUCKY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


MARSHALL (4 - 2) at MIDDLE TENN ST (3 - 4) - 10/24/2013, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday, October 24

7:30 PM
MARSHALL vs. MIDDLE TENNESSEE
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Marshall's last 6 games
Marshall is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Middle Tennessee's last 7 games at home
Middle Tennessee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

7:30 PM
KENTUCKY vs. MISSISSIPPI STATE
Kentucky is 2-14 SU in its last 16 games
Kentucky is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games
Mississippi State is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Mississippi State's last 6 games at home

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 9

Kentucky at Mississippi State
The Wildcats look to take advantage of a Mississippi State team that is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 Thursday games. Kentucky is the pick (+10 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Bulldogs favored by only 7. Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (+10 1/2). Here are all of this week's lined games.

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 24

Game 105-106: Kentucky at Mississippi State (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kentucky 83.828; Mississippi State 90.723
Dunkel Line: Mississippi State by 7; 52
Vegas Line: Mississippi State by 10 1/2; 56
Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (+10 1/2); Under

Game 107-108: Marshall at Middle Tennessee State (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Marshall 83.989; Middle Tennessee State 73.364
Dunkel Line: Marshall by 10 1/2; 53
Vegas Line: Marshall by 8 1/2; 56 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Marshall (-8 1/2); Under

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Thursday, October 24

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Kentucky at Mississippi State: What bettors need to know
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Kentucky Wildcats at Mississippi State Bulldogs (-10.5, 56)

Mississippi State looks for its fifth straight victory over Kentucky when the Southeastern Conference cross-divisional rivals square off in primetime Thursday. The Bulldogs are after the first five-game winning streak by either team in the series, which has seen the last five meetings decided by an average of eight points. "I know our guys look forward to this game and treat it as a little bit of a rivalry game for us," Mississippi State coach Dan Mullen said. "… You know it's a team you're playing every year."

The Wildcats have dropped four straight - all against teams that were ranked in the top 25 at the time - and had a week off following a 48-7 trouncing versus No. 1 Alabama on Oct. 12. "I think having a chance to recoup physically and mentally I think should help us going into this game," first-year Kentucky coach Mark Stoops told reporters. "I think our preparation has been very good. I feel like the team is in a good place right now." Mississippi State has alternated losses and wins all season and shoots for its first winning streak after a 21-20 victory over Bowling Green on Oct. 12.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Mississippi State opened as a 9.5-point home favorite and moved to -10.5. The total jumped from 55 points to 56.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the low 50s with partly cloudy skies and winds blowing WNW at 2 mph.

ABOUT KENTUCKY (1-5, 0-3 SEC, 2-4 ATS): The Wildcats expected quarterback Jalen Whitlow to miss at least one game after spraining his left ankle against Alabama, but he returned to practice Monday and could be ready to start. Fellow sophomore Maxwell Smith will get the nod if Whitlow can't play, taking the reins of an offense that has been balanced, but far from explosive. Kentucky has been tough against the pass but allows 213.3 rushing yards per game - 107th among the 123 FBS teams, which might spell trouble against the Bulldogs' strong ground game.

ABOUT MISSISSIPPI STATE (3-3, 0-2, 3-3 ATS): The Bulldogs have been a bit of a one-man show on offense, with quarterback Dak Prescott leading the team with 457 rushing yards and eight touchdowns to go along with 890 passing yards and three TDs. Prescott splits time with Tyler Russell, who missed time with a concussion but has played the past two games and threw for 248 yards and two TDs in those contests. The defense was torched in a 59-26 loss to LSU on Oct. 5 but has held its own against dangerous offenses in losses to Oklahoma State and Auburn.

TRENDS:

* Wildcats are 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings in Mississippi State.
* Road team is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Mississippi State has rushed for 200 yards or more in five consecutive games for the first time since 2010. The Bulldogs rank 23rd in the nation with 214.3 rushing yards per game.

2. The Wildcats have been bold on fourth down, going for it 13 times and converting nine. The 69.2 percent conversion rate ranks 15th in the nation (eighth among teams with at least 10 attempts).

3. Prescott has topped 100 yards rushing in two straight games and three of the past four and has at least one rushing touchdown in five straight contests.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NCAAF

Thursday, October 24

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Marshall at Middle Tennessee: What bettors need to know
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Marshall Thundering Herd at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (+8.5, 56.5)

The Marshall Thundering Herd have plenty of momentum following a dramatic come-from-behind win over Florida Atlantic, and get a struggling opponent next as they face the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Floyd Stadium Thursday night. The Thundering Herd rode Justin Haig's last-second 41-yard field goal to a 24-23 triumph over Florida Atlantic on Oct. 12. The Blue Raiders have lost three in a row and were thumped 34-7 at North Texas in their last game.

The Middle Tennessee offense has scuffled mightily since a 42-35 overtime win over Florida Atlantic, scoring just 34 points during its skid. That's a bad omen for a Blue Raiders team facing off against a Marshall defense that ranks 14th in the nation in points against per game (18.8). It's the first-ever meeting between the teams in Murfeesboro, and the first time they've faced off since Marshall prevailed 49-14 back on Nov. 26, 1994.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, FOX Sports 1

LINE: Marshall has held steady as an 8.5-point favorite, with the over/under set at 56.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-40s under partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow diagonally out of the northwest at 5 mph.

ABOUT MARSHALL (4-2, 2-0 Conference USA, 4-2 ATS): Marshall is wrapping up a bizarre scheduling quirk that has it playing just its third game in a 33-day stretch Thursday - with a 34-10 win over UTSA on Oct. 5 and the victory over Owls a week later representing its only game action since Sept. 21. The players admit it's good to have everyone rested but they're itching to hit the field. "Sometimes in practice, you'd see a bunch of (non-contact jerseys)," center Chris Jasperse told the Charleston Gazette. "Now, hey, let's go play. It's good for us to have everybody out there, ready to go."

ABOUT MIDDLE TENNESSEE (3-4, 1-2, 2-5 ATS): The Blue Raiders know that the Marshall offense revolves around standout quarterback Rakeem Cato, who has looked ordinary since a five-touchdown outburst in Marshall's season opener but is still one of the conference's top QBs. "He is a very dynamic player," Middle Tennessee head coach Rick Stockstill told the team's official website. "He can make every throw and he's got a great arm. He's just a phenomenal player." The Blue Raider defense has been impressive, ranking second in the nation with 20 takeaways.

TRENDS

* Marshall is 2-9-2 ATS in its last 13 road games against teams with losing home records.
* Middle Tennessee is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a bye week.
* Over is 11-4 in the Thundering Herd's previous 15 conference games.
* Under is 5-1 in the Blue Raiders' last six games against teams with winning records.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Marshall has won both head-to-head meetings.

2. Cato has thrown four touchdown passes and four interceptions in three road games so far in 2013.

3. Senior QB Logan Kilgore is expected to get the start for Middle Tennessee despite being replaced by Austin Grammer against North Texas.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Short Sheet

Week 9

Thursday, October 24

Kentucky at Mississippi State, 7:30 ET
Kentucky: 2-11 ATS as an underdog
Mississippi St: 15-5 ATS after scoring 20 pts or more in first half in 2 straight games

Marshall at Middle Tenn St, 7:30 ET
Marshal: 10-23 ATS as a road favorite
Middle Tenn St: 31-15 UNDER after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

10/22/13 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
10/19/13 23-*25-*2 47.92% -*2250 Detail
10/18/13 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
10/17/13 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
10/15/13 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail
10/12/13 49-*43-*1 53.26% +*850 Detail
10/11/13 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail
10/10/13 3-*3-*0 50.00% -*150 Detail
10/05/13 56-*43-*1 56.57% +*4350 Detail
10/04/13 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
10/03/13 5-*1-*0 83.33% +*1950 Detail

Totals 143-*122-*4 53.96% +4400


Thursday, October 24

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Kentucky - 7:30 PM ET Mississippi State -12 500 POD # 3

Mississippi State - Over 54.5 500 POD # 4

Marshall - 7:30 PM ET Marshall -10 500 POD # 1

Middle Tennessee - Under 56.5 500 POD # 2

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

College football trends to think about with Week 8 upon us:

-- Illinois covered twice in its last dozen games with Michigan State.

-- Road team covered 10 of last 12 Alabama-Tennessee games.

-- Stanford covered 13 of last 17 tries as a road favorite.

-- Nevada won its last eight games vs UNLV (6-2 vs spread).

-- Wyoming covered 15 of its last 19 games as a road underdog.

-- Home side covered 15 of last 18 Georgia Tech-Virginia games.


*****

Armadillo: Friday's List of 13: Our NFL List of 13..........

13) Buffalo Bills play a rookie QB every week, but have scored 20+ points in every game; can they put a scare into the Saints on Bourbon Street?

12) Kent State and Akron are home underdogs in MAC games Saturday; MAC home dogs are 1-11 vs spread so far this season.

11) Jaguars are going to play one “home” game a year in London for the next few years; rumor has it they’re sending Dallas over the pond to play the Jags next year. That should go over well with season ticket holders in northern Florida.

10) Oregon State lost to I-AA Eastern Washington last month; in the past when the Beavers have a bad loss like that, they’ve pulled a pretty big upset later in the year. OSU hosts Stanford this week; could this be it?

9) Giants lost their last eight road games; Eagles lost their last nine home games. Something has to give Sunday at the Linc. Philly is 0-11 vs spread in its last 11 home games.

8) Clemson had to be a little shocked at how badly Florida State beat them last week; now the Tigers hit the road to play an improved Maryland team. Clemson better be alert this week, not let the Seminoles beat them twice.

7) Never thought I’d be happy to see the Rams sign Brady Quinn as a backup QB, but you see the names “Tebow” and “Favre” thrown around in wire reports, you’ll gladly take Quinn, who will wear #3.

If you’re going to buy a Rams’ jersey with Quinn on the back, get a number 94 jersey, for star DE Robert Quinn.

6) Weird week in the SEC, with few teams having week off and several other teams playing stiffs. Bama-Tennessee and South Carolina-Mizzou are the only decent games on the league’s slate this week.

5) Going back to LY’s playoff loss to Green Bay, Vikings have started four different QB’s in their last seven games. Yikes. When Christian Ponder starts Sunday place in place of Josh Freeman (concussion), it’ll be three different starting QBs in their last three games. Not good.

4) College teams send out a 2-deep depth chart for each side of the ball to the media during the week; USC’s 2-deep offensive chart has seven walk-ons out of 22 players listed. Utah beat Stanford, can they upset the Trojans in the Coliseum?

3) Dallas-Detroit figures to be high-scoring game, as all Detroit home games are. Cowboy defense has played better since a 51-48 loss to Denver.

2) Fresno State is still unbeaten, despite winning games 52-51 and 41-40 this year; the Bulldogs visit San Diego State late Saturday night trying to stay unbeaten- they're a fun team to watch.

1) Chiefs can get to the halfway mark 8-0 if they beat Cleveland Sunday. Browns are giving Jason Campbell his first start of the year, the third QB to start for the Browns in eight games. I hope Campbell writes a book someday; he’s played for so many teams and so many coaches, he must have some great stories to tell.

[StarDust Bum]

Pac-12 Report - Week 9

October 24, 2013

The Pac-12 had a marquee games of its own last week, and unlikely Florida State-Clemson in the ACC, the UCLA-Stanford game was a pretty decent contest. In the end, the Cardinal bumped the Bruins from the ranks of the unbeaten, leaving only Oregon as the west coast team with serious national championship aspirations.

It will be an interesting week in the Pac-12. Bettors have been pounding Arizona State overs this season, but they are on a bye. And Washington State has been surprising effective against the spread, covering six of their eight contests. But they, too, are off this weekend. However, there is still plenty of money to be made within the Pac-12.

2013 PAC-12 STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Arizona 4-2 1-2 3-3 2-4

Arizona State 5-2 3-1 4-3 6-1

California 1-6 0-4 0-7 3-3-1

Colorado 3-3 0-3 3-3 4-2

Oregon 7-0 4-0 6-1 5-2

Oregon State 6-1 4-0 4-3 5-2

Southern California 4-3 1-2 2-5 2-5

Stanford 6-1 4-1 3-4 4-3

UCLA 5-1 2-1 5-1 2-4

Utah 4-3 1-3 4-3 3-4

Washington 4-3 1-3 4-3 3-4

Washington State 4-4 2-3 6-2 4-3-1


Utah at Southern California (Pac-12 Network, 4:00 p.m. ET)
The Utes hit the road to meet the Trojans in a battle of 4-3 teams. Utah upended Stanford at Rice-Eccles two weeks ago, but then lost straight-up and ATS on the road in Tucson last weekend. They are now just 1-4 ATS in their past five road contests, and 1-6 ATS in their past seven Pac-12 games overall. Plus, Utah is 2-5 ATS in their past seven against a team with a winning record. USC is also 2-5 ATS in their past seven conference tilts, and just 3-9 ATS in their past 12 against a team with a winning record. If you're to pay attention to this game, it might be because of the total. The total is set at 54, and the trends all seem to indicate the under. The under is 4-0 in Utah's past four outings, and 6-2 in their past eight road games. The under is 7-2 in USC's past nine games, and 34-16-1 in their past 51 home games.

UCLA at Oregon (ESPN, 7:00 p.m. ET)
The difficult schedule continues for UCLA. The Bruins were dumped 24-10 in Palo Alto, and now they need to contend with the high-octane Ducks. This game could be fun, and hopefully the scoreboard operator at Autzen Stadium has limbered up his/her fingers. UCLA is 5-1 ATS in their past six games, and 4-1 ATS in their past five road games against a team with a winning home mark. Meanwhile, Oregon is 14-3 ATS in their past 17, 9-2 ATS in their past 11 conference battles, and 6-1 ATS in their past seven against a team with a winning record. The only real negative trend is Oregon is 1-5 ATS in the past six home games against a team with a winning road record, and they failed to cover last weekend at home against Washington State. Does that mean a 23-point line against QB Brett Hundley and the Bruins is a little too much? We'll soon see.

Arizona at Colorado (Pac-12 Network, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Colorado opened the season 2-0 SU and ATS, and things looked to be turning around after a dismal season last year. Then, the floods came in the state of Colorado, their home game against Fresno State was cancelled, and after a three-week break, the Buffs looked like their former selves. Colorado was waxed at Oregon State. They were waxed at home against Oregon. And they were waxed at Arizona State. They did step out of conference to pound Charleston Southern last weekend, but back inside the Pac-12, they could very well be waxed again this weekend. The Wildcats are looking pretty sharp, beating a solid Utah team last week. RB Ka'Deem Carey is piecing together another strong season, averaging six yards per tote. Arizona routed Colorado 56-31 Nov. 10, 2012, and it wouldn't be shocking to see a similar result here. While Arizona is 2-5 ATS in the past seven Pac-12 games, Colorado is just 7-21 ATS in their past 28 conference tilts. Plus, Colorado is just 4-10 ATS in their past 14 at home.

Stanford at Oregon State (ESPN, 10:30 p.m. ET)
I've actually watched each of the past six Oregon State games, and they are a fun team to watch. QB Sean Mannion is one of the best, and perhaps most underrated, quarterbacks in the nation, and WR Brandin Cooks is equally efficient and extraordinary. And with RB Storm Woods back from concussion, this offense is hitting on all cylinders again. They'll be put to the test against a solid Stanford defense, which limited UCLA to just 10 points last week. The Cardinal are 17-8 ATS in their past 25 games against a team with a winning record, and 35-17-1 ATS in the past 53 games overall. Plus, they're 19-7-1 ATS in the past 27 road games, and 20-8-1 ATS in their past 29 Pac-12 tilts. Oregon State is 4-0 ATS in the past four conference battles, and 9-3-1 ATS in their past 13 games against a team with a winning record. Head-to-head, the home team is 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings. However, the favorite is 5-2 ATS in the past seven, and the Cardinal are 4-1 ATS in their past five meetings with the Beavers. However, Stanford has covered just two of their past eight trips to Corvallis.

California at Washington (FOX Sports 1, 11:00 p.m. ET)
The Cal Bears have been horrendous, and last weekend they were crushed at home by Oregon State. Washington has dropped three straight at Stanford, home against Oregon and at Arizona State. The Huskies are going to be awfully ornery, and they could take their frustrations out on the conference's punching bag. Cal has failed to cover in each of its seven games. while Washington is 3-1 ATS at home this season. Washington is also 13-3 ATS in their past 16 home games, and 9-2 ATS in their past 11 against teams with a losing record. In this series, the underdog is 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings, but Cal is 0-4 ATS in their past four meetings with U-Dub.

Byes
Arizona State, Washington State

[StarDust Bum]

ACC Report - Week 9

October 24, 2013

Last weekend was the game of the year, and only one Atlantic Coast Contender decided to show up. The Florida State Seminoles cemented their place in the national championship discussion for the remainder of the season, thumping Clemson in Death Valley by a 51-14 score. And, to be honest, it wasn't even that close. The Tigers scored with the second-team offense in the closing minutes, making those who had the 'over' pretty pleased.

As a result of their resounding win, the Seminoles found themselves ranked No. 2 in the first installment of the BCS standings behind defending national champion Alabama. It's uncertain if that can or will last, but FSU certainly looked like a title contender last weekend. Will they be able to keep that same kind of focus with a visit from North Carolina State this weekend? They have another huge game coming up against the ACC's only other unbeaten team, the rival Miami Hurricanes, next weekend. It will be interesting to see how the Seminoles handle their success.

2013 ACC STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Boston College 3-3 1-2 4-2 2-4

Clemson 6-1 4-1 3-4 4-3

Duke 5-2 1-2 5-2 3-4

Florida State 6-0 4-0 5-1 6-0

Georgia Tech 4-3 3-2 4-3 4-3

Maryland 5-2 1-2 4-3 4-3

Miami (Fla.) 6-0 2-0 4-2 3-3

North Carolina 1-5 0-3 2-4 1-5

North Carolina State 3-3 0-3 3-3 1-5

Pittsburgh 4-2 2-2 2-4 3-3

Syracuse 3-4 1-2 4-3 4-3

Virginia 2-5 0-3 3-4 5-2

Virginia Tech 6-1 3-0 3-3-1 1-5-1

Wake Forest 4-3 2-2 3-4 1-6


Wake Forest at Miami, Fl. (ESPNU - 12:00 p.m. ET)
The Hurricanes snuck out of Chapel Hill last Thursday with a narrow win at North Carolina, keeping their record unblemished. It will be interesting to see how the 'Canes respond at home against another inferior conference opponent, especially with a huge game against rival Florida State looming next weekend in Tallahassee. This might be viewed as a 'trap' game, but Wake Forest is just 3-7 ATS in their past 10 games, and 1-4 ATS in their past five road contests. The Demon Deacons are also 2-8 ATS in their past 10 games against a team with a winning record. Miami is 5-0 ATS in their past five against a team with a winning record, and 8-1 ATS in their past nine home games. Plus, the Canes are an impressive 14-3 ATS in their past 17 ACC games. Miami leads the all-time series 7-3, and they have won six straight meetings.

Georgia Tech at Virginia (12:30 p.m. ET)
This is a very interesting game that bettors need to pay attention to closely. The Yellow Jackets are installed as a 10-point favorite, and the early indications are the public is piling on Georgia Tech at a 2-to-1 clip. That might be because Georgia Tech is 8-2 ATS in their past 10 conference games, including a 56-0 dusting of Syracuse last weekend at Bobby Dodd Stadium. The Yellow Jackets are 5-2 ATS in their past seven against a team with a losing record, and 9-4 ATS in their past 13 overall. Meanwhile, UVA comes in just 7-20 ATS in their past 27 against teams with a winning record, and 3-9 ATS in their past 12 ACC games. The Cavs are also just 2-10-1 ATS in their past 13 at Scott Stadium. However, keep in mind that UVA is 6-1 ATS in their past seven home games against Georgia Tech, the favorite has covered eight of the past 11 meetings in this series, and the home team is an impressive 12-3 ATS in the past 15 meetings. Which trends do you like more? With conflicting information, I like to think this game screams stay away from the line. The total sits at 47, and the over is 5-2 in GT's past seven road games. The over is also 5-1 in UVA's past six, and 4-0 in their past four home games. The over is also 4-1 in Virginia's past five against a team with a winning mark.

Pittsburgh at Navy (CBSSN, 1:00 p.m. ET)
The Panthers look for their fifth win of the season on the road in Annapolis, while the Midshipmen look to keep their heads above water, pun totally intended. The Panthers are 2-5 ATS in their past seven, while the Middies are 4-9 ATS in their past 13 home games. There are no really good trends here, other than Navy being 2-0 ATS at home, while Pittsburgh is 0-2 ATS on the road. The total is listed at 51 1/2, and the 'under' has come through in each of the past three for Pittsburgh after the over was 3-0 in their first three contests. The under has cashed in four of the past five for the Midshipmen.

Boston College at North Carolina (3:30 p.m. ET)
The Tar Heels are still stinging after its latest defeat at home against unbeaten Miami. UNC nearly had a much-needed signature win on a national stage, but instead slipped to 1-5 on the season. For those thinking Boston College might be a pushover, and the type of team for the Tar Heels to play to get back on track, think again. QB Chase Rettig, RB Andre Williams and WR Alex Amidon are a three-headed monster on offense. In fact, Williams leads the conference in rushing with 838 yards, and Amidon has posted 10 career 100-yard receiving games. BC is a very disciplined team, too, committing a conference-low 22 penalties with just six turnovers. BC is 0-3 all-time in Chapel Hill, however, so if they keep the Heels down, it will be a first for them. BC is 4-1 ATS in their past five conference games, but 7-20 ATS in their past 27 against a team with a losing record, and 1-7 ATS in their past eight on the road. UNC is 9-3 ATS in their past 12 at home, including last week against Miami. The under could be the best play here, as the under is 20-7-1 in BC's past 28 ACC games, and 36-14-1 in their past 51 road games. The under is 5-1 in UNC's past six, and 4-1 in their past five ACC games.

Duke at Virginia Tech (ESPNU, 3:30 p.m. ET)
The Blue Devils are back in the state of Virginia for a second straight week, looking for similar results to the ones they found in Charlottesville last weekend. Duke spotted UVA a 22-0 lead last week, only to storm back with 35 unanswered points for a 35-22 win. Virginia Tech is a lot better of a team, though, and falling behind early would be fatal. And the Hokies are rested, coming off a bye. The Blue Devils are 31st in the nation in offense, and QB Brandon Connette, while only a part-time player, has managed 19 touchdown passes, third-most in the ACC behind only Florida State's Jameis Winston and Clemson's Tajh Boyd. Duke can certainly score, but their defense has been a little flaky. In the last meeting Oct. 13, Clemson won 41-20. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings, and Duke is just 3-7 ATS in their past 10 road games. The Blue Devils are also 1-6 ATS in their past seven road games against a team with a winning record, while the Hokies are 6-0 ATS in their past six home games agaisnt a team with a winning road record.

Clemson at Maryland (ESPN, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Clemson was absolutely buried at home, and now they must pick themselves up off the mat and get back on track. A sluggish start wouldn't be shocking in this one given their embarrassing loss to FSU at home last week. While Clemson is 6-1 ATS in their past seven road games, they are just 1-5 ATS in their past six against a team with a winning record. Maryland is 4-1 ATS in their past five home games, but just 4-13 ATS in their past 17 ACC games. The under might be the best play. The under is 13-4 in Clemson's past 17, and 9-2 in their past 11 road games against a team with a winning home record. The under is also 6-1 in the past seven meetings in this series, and 5-2 in the past seven meetings

North Carolina State at Florida State (ABC, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Will history repeat itself? The Seminoles looked to be hitting on all cylinders last season before a trip to Raleigh sent them tumbling. The 'Noles fell 17-16 at Carter-Finley Stadium, and have a little payback to do. FSU crushed Clemson last week, and face Miami next week, so could there be a little bit of a lull? Or is this a different FSU team? NC State is coming off a bye, but they also were pounded by a terrible Syracuse team, 24-10, in their last outing. NC State is 1-7-1 ATS in their past nine road games, and 1-5-1 ATS in their past seven road games against a team with a winning home record. FSU is 4-0 ATS in their past four home games and 6-1 ATS in their past seven overall. The only thing to worry about here is a hangover/look-ahead situation.

Byes
Syracuse

[StarDust Bum]

Big Ten Report - Week 9

October 24, 2013

Week 8 of the Big Ten card saw the underdogs cash in three of five games, including an outright victory by Minnesota (+12 ½) at Northwestern. Home teams went 3-2 with all three of the home winners grabbing double-digit victories, although Ohio State and Michigan State didn't cash as heavy 'chalk.' Bettors watched the 'over' go 3-2.

2013 BIG TEN STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Illinois 3-3 0-2 3-3 4-2

Indiana 3-3 1-1 3-3 5-1

Iowa 4-3 1-2 4-3 5-2

Michigan 6-1 2-1 4-3 5-2

Michigan State 6-1 3-0 3-3-1 3-4

Minnesota 5-2 1-2 4-3 4-3

Nebraska 5-1 2-0 4-2 3-3

Northwestern 4-3 0-3 2-5 3-4

Ohio State 7-0 3-0 4-2-1 5-2

Penn State 4-2 1-1 3-3 4-2

Purdue 1-5 0-2 1-5 3-3

Wisconsin 5-2 3-1 6-0-1 3-4


Ohio State (-14 ½, 56 ½) vs. Penn State (ABC, 8:00 p.m. ET)
It was a tale of two halves for Ohio State on Saturday against Iowa. The Buckeyes trailed by seven at halftime but scored touchdowns on their first three second half drives and outscored the Hawks 24-7 in the final two quarters. OSU held Iowa to just 143 yards on 18 plays in the 2nd half – 75 yards came on one TD pass – while the Buckeyes gained 316 on 54 plays. QB Braxton Miller (222 pass yards, 2 TDs, 102 rush yards) and RB Carlos Hyde (149 rush yards, 2 TDs) led this Buckeyes offense and the defense overcame an ejection of their best pass-defender – CB Bradley Roby. Even with Roby, OSU’s pass defense has been average at best this season, but again the Bucks allowed 245 pass yards and 3 pass TD against a mediocre Iowa pass offense. OSU will again face another test this weekend against freshman star QB Christian Hackenberg of Penn State. PSU had a much-needed bye week after an emotionally draining four overtime win over Michigan in its last game. Hackenberg (11 TD & 6 INT) is far beyond his years as a starting QB and the two-headed rushing attack of Zwinack (393 yards, 8 TD) & Belton (369 yards, 3 TD) will need to have a big day against this OSU defense that ranks 15th in total defense. PSU’s defense has has allowed over 40 points against Indiana & Michigan in its last two outings, but still ranks 17th in total defense. Penn State has no bowl aspirations to live up to but coach O’Brien has shown that he has no difficulty motivating his team to play spoiler. PSU is 0-4 SU & ATS in its last four as a 14+ point underdog. Penn State is 2-5 SU & ATS in its last seven games against Ohio State, but both of those wins and covers came in two of its last three trips to Ohio Stadium.

Nebraska (-10 ½, 52) at Minnesota (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Nebraska enjoyed a bye week after handing its business against Purdue for the third consecutive game won in blowout fashion. Backup quarterback Tommy Armstrong Jr. threw three interceptions and completed only six passes, thus resolving the “quarterback controversy” between him and the previously injured Taylor Martinez. Martinez should make his return from turf toe this weekend and he’ll need quality reps before the Huskers begin a daunting November slate (Northwestern, atMichigan, Michigan State, atPenn State). Nebraska will be playing its first game without star guard Spencer Long which might affect the Huskers’ rushing effort (10th nationally in rush YPG). Yards won’t come easy for RB Abdullah (816 RY) against this Gopher defense that ranks 25th against the run. Minnesota is off of its most notable win of 2013 with a 20-17 upset at Northwestern. Minny held Northwestern to just 94 rush yards on 3.6 YPC and forced three NU turnovers. The Gophers were still outgained and didn’t do anything special on offense. QB Nelson relieved QB Leidner and completed 8-of-11 passes with 1 TD and no INT. Nelson will likely get the start Saturday against Nebraska but we expect to see both him and Leidner share snaps. Nebraska has won and covered both of its meetings with Minnesota as a B1G member by an average score of 40-14. Nebraska is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games as a road favorite of 10 points or more. Contrarily, the Gophers are 10-5 ATS in their last 15 as a home underdog of 10 points or more.

Michigan State (-10 ½, 50) at Illinois (ESPN2, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Last week we noted how Michigan State’s offense had finally turned a corner and become respectable again. We ate those words after watching MSU against Purdue last weekend. The Spartans mustered just 294 yards and one offensive touchdown against a Purdue defense that had allowed 41+ points over its last three games. MSU’s lone touchdown came late in the 4th quarter on a trick play. QB Cook completed just 13-of-25 passes for 107 yards with no scores. It wasn’t a surprise to see Michigan State’s defense pitch a shutout of Purdue’s offense. Sparty’s defense has been dominant all season long and it allowed just 226 yards and 14 first downs on Saturday. MSU ranks 1st nationally against the run, 4th against the pass, 1st in overall defense, and 4th in scoring defense. Still, this defense can only carry the Spartans so far, and they’ll need to be sharper on offense as the schedule gets tougher – starting this week with a road game against Illinois. Illinois stumbled out of the gate against Wisconsin last week, falling behind 21-0 just 10 minutes into the game. The Illini got back into the game with a 17-point 2nd quarter and took an 11-point deficit into halftime. The defense couldn’t slow the Badgers’ rushing attack in the 2nd half, though, as UW racked up 28 2nd half points and 289 rush yards overall. Quarterback play wasn't the issue, as Nathan Scheelhaase and Reilly O'Toole combined to complete 25 of 32 passes for 318 yards, but two fumbles led to Wisconsin touchdowns and Illinois' couldn’t run the ball with much success (72 yards on 2 ½ YPC). These two haven’t met since 2010, but MSU is 8-1 SU & ATS in the past nine meetings. Michigan State is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine road games while Illinois is 9-5 ATS in its last 14 home games as an underdog of 10 points or more.

Iowa (-3 ½, 53) vs. Northwestern (Big Ten, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Iowa had an excellent game plan for Ohio State coming off the open week. The Hawkeyes racked up 17 first-half points against Ohio State and controlled the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. Unfortunately, everything came unraveled in the 2nd half. Iowa was outscored 24-7 in the 2nd half as OSU scored on four straight 2nd half possessions. Iowa had a difficult time stopping the run, which was a strength through the first half of the season. OSU racked up 273 rush yards (5.4 YPC) and scored the first two rushing touchdowns of 2013 against this Iowa defense.The Hawkeyes came up short but proved that they could certainly make some noise down the stretch in the wide-open Legends Division. They’ll face another test this week against a desperate Northwestern squad coming off of three straight defeats. The Wildcats’ offense mustered just 328 yards against Minnesota last week. QB Siemian completed just 25-of-46 passes for 234 yards with 1 TD and 2 INT (one which Minnesota returned for a touchdown).Northwestern clearly missed QB Colter and RB Mark, both of whom were out with an injury. Colter is questionable for Saturday’s contest while Mark has already been ruled out. Northwestern is 6-2 SU & ATS in the last eight meetings with Iowa, including last year’s 28-17 win. The Wildcats are 13-5 ATS in the last 18 games as a road underdog.

Wisconsin - BYE
Wisconsin will have its 2nd bye week of the month after back-to-back crushing victories over Northwestern and Illinois. Last week at Illinois, the Badgers jumped out to a 21-0 lead just 10 minutes into the game. The Illini cut the deficit to 11 points at halftime, but UW scored 28 2nd half points to put the game out of reach. The Badgers tallied 478 yards and 25 first downs while only seeing 8 third down opportunities. RB’s Gordon & White combined for 240 rush yards (6 ½ YPC) and six total touchdowns. The most promising performance was an efficient game by QB Stave. Stave completed 16-of-21 passes for 189 yards with 2 TD and 0 INT. Star LB Borland didn’t play in the 2nd half because of an injury and the defense was noticeably worse without the senior leader. He’ll try to get healthy during the off week as the Badgers prepare for a road trip to Iowa.

Michigan - BYE
The Wolverines’ offense was utterly unstoppable against Indiana last week. The Wolverines totaled 751 total yards of offense and 35 first downs. QB Gardner threw for 503 yards and rushed for 81 more and accounted for five total touchdowns. WR Gallon set a school record with 369 receiving yards and RB Toussaint had 151 rush yards and four scores. Michigan needed every single one of those yards as Indiana wasn’t rolling over in defeat. The Wolves defense allowed 572 yards and 28 first downs and Indiana trailed by just two points with 6:00 remaining. The defense has now allowed 45 ½ PPG over the last two weeks and it’ll need to be addressed over the bye week. Next up is a road trip to in-state rival Michigan State.

Indiana - BYE
Indiana’s offense is pretty close to unstoppable, but the Hoosiers won’t win many games as long as the defense continues to play like it is. IU ranks 9th in total offense and 11th in points per game. QB’s Sudfeld & Roberson have combined for 22 TD passes and RB Coleman has 9 rush TD. They’ve scored 35+ points in five of seven games this season. Defensively the Hoosiers rank at or near the bottom in every major statistical category. They allowed 751 yards and 63 points to Michigan last week. Fixing the issues on the defensive side of the ball will be priorities 1, 2, and 3 during the bye week. A home game against Minnesota is up next.

Purdue - BYE
Purdue’s defense showed up for the first time this season against Michigan State last week. This Boiler stop unit was allowing 37.8 PPG heading into last week’s game but held the Spartans to just one offensive touchdown (MSU scored a defensive touchdown to push their total to 14). The offense had several chances but couldn't finish drives in Spartans territory. Purdue needs to clean up its pass protection after allowing five sacks as young QB Etling barely had time to throw the ball. The Boilers didn’t get a lot going against MSU’s top-ranked defense, gaining just 226 total yards. The Boilers have a week off before hosting Ohio State next Saturday.