NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 4 (Thursday, September 26 - Monday, September 30)

[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, September 29

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NFL betting: Faves 4-0 in last four London games
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The Minnesota Vikings and Pittsburgh Steelers will square off at Wembley Stadium in Week 4 and though the line opened as a pick, bettors should make note of where it swings as the fave has covered in four-straight games in jolly ol' England.

This season marks the seventh consecutive that the NFL will hold a game in London, England. In fact, there are two games to be held on British soil this season with the Jacksonville Jaguars and San Francisco 49ers playing there on Oct. 27.

There are a couple of trends through the first six games in London to bear in mind if you're going to make a wager on the Steelers versus Vikings game this weekend.

The favorite has covered in four consecutive matchups and is 4-2 overall in these games.

Last season, the Pats crushed the Rams 45-7 and covered as 7.5-point favorites.

If you're looking at totals, the over/under count is 2-4 in the six games and the under was on a three-game streak before the Pats and Rams went over the 46-point total last season.

The total in this weekends matchup opened at 41.


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[Udog]

Where the action is: Sharps, public like Denver/Philly over

Week 4 of the NFL schedule features a slew of home dogs and some tiny point spreads, which is in contrast to the mammoth spreads we saw in a couple of games last weekend.

We talk to an oddsmaker from BetDSI about the betting patterns, sharp and public money, and where they see the lines ending up come kickoff Sunday.

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars - Open: +7, Move +8

The Colts are seeing a ton of money in this game against the lowly Jaguars. But, according to an oddsmaker at BetDSI, there's no sharp pressure involved as it's all money coming in from the betting public.

"This game is currently in a "no recovery zone" with a 10-to-1 wager count and a 6-to-1 money wagered advantage for the Colts. Indianapolis teasers are overwhelming this week with so many short spreads. Bettors are leaning to them and New Orleans for spread betting support."


Seattle Seahawks at Houston Texans - Open: +3, Move: +1.5

Texans S Ed Reed recently called this a potential Super Bowl matchup. Fairly brash prediction considering the Texans are one week removed from an humiliating 30-9 defeat courtesy of the defending champion Baltimore Ravens.

"Sharps on both sides of this match up laying the -2 1/2 on Seattle and +3 -105 on Houston. The current bet count is at 3-to-1 with the help of the public betting faction, but the money wagered is currently a dead on even split."


Dallas Cowboys at San Diego Chargers - Open: +2.5, Move: +2

Books opened with this line anywhere from a pick to the Chargers +2.5. The result has been divided action among sharp bettors and the public. "America's Team" is seeing three times the bets, but cash is just about even.

"There is a sharp versus public split on this game with sharps backing the Bolts at the +2.5 value and the public backing Dallas through the current 2 value. Current bet count is about 3-to-1 in favor of the Cowboys, but money wagered is pretty even right now."


New York Giants at Kansas City Chiefs - Open: -5, Move: -4

Eli Manning and the New York Giants had some friends among sharp bettors at that opening line. The G-Men have gotten off to rocky start as the younger Manning leads the NFL with eight interceptions through his first three games.

"Sharp money is backing Eli and the slumping Giants at the +5 value through the +4.5 position. When the number hit KC -4, sharps started backing that value creating even money wagered and wager count splits and pretty balanced books for us in-house on this tilt."


Philadelphia Eagles at Denver Broncos - Open: 56.5, Move: 57

The NFL's two most potent offenses square off in a late afternoon matchup. Obviously not quite the astronomical total we saw posted in the Cal/Oregon game in NCAA football, but certainly a high total nonetheless. Not high enough to scare off bettors backing the over, however.

"Oddly enough in an NFL game with a College Football-like total, Sharp money is backing the over 56.5 here pushing the staggering total value to its current 57. The public isn't helping matters here and are continuing to push the over creating close to 6-to-1 bet counts and 5-to-1 money wagered counts on this total."

[Udog]

NFL betting weather report: Sunday's forecasts

Find out how weather will impact your NFL bets for Sunday's matchups:

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills (+3, 44.5)

Temperatures will be in the high-60s with clear skies. Wind will blow across the field at 9 mph.


Arizona Cardinals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1, 40)

Temperatures will be in the mid-80s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow across the field at 6 mph.


Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Minnesota Vikings (+3, 41)
Site: Wembley Stadium, London, UK

Temperatures will be in the high-50s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow across the field at 9 mph.


New York Giants at Kansas City Chiefs (-4, 43.5)

Temperatures will be in the high-60s with clear skies over Arrowhead Stadium.


Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (+9.5, 42.5)

Temperatures will be in the low-80s with a 25 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow towards the SW endzone at 11 mph.


Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (+3.5, 42.5)

Temperatures will be in the low-70s with a 30 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow across the field at 9 mph.


New York Jets at Tennessee Titans (-3.5, 40.5)

Temperatures will be in the mid-70s with a 43 percent chance of rain.


Washington Redskins at Oakland Raiders (+3, 44)

Temperatures will be in the high-60s with wind blowing across the field at 8 mph.


Philadelphia Eagles at Denver Broncos (-11, 58)

Temperatures will be in the mid-70s with clear skies.


Dallas Cowboys at San Diego Chargers (+1, 46.5)

Temperatures will be in the high-70s with clear skies. Wind will blow toward the east endzone at 7 mph.

[Udog]

Essential betting tidbits for Week 4 of the NFL

We dug up these vital betting tidbits for some of Sunday's NFL action that will help you make the right call before kickoff.

- The Baltimore Ravens rank fourth-last in the league averaging 308.3 yards per game thus far. The ground game has been anemic but could be bolstered by the potential return of Ray Rice, who is reportedly a game-time decision.

- If Rice is indeed in the backfield, the Ravens will be licking their chops. They face the Buffalo Bills who have allowed two 100-yard rushing performances (Shane Vereen and Bilal Powell) through their first three games. The Ravens are 3-point road dogs Sunday.

- Rookie QB Mike Glennon gets the start for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as they host the Arizona Cardinals. Bucs are 1-point home faves.

- The Steelers are currently 3-point faves as they face the Minnesota Vikings in London, England. The favorite has covered in the last four games in the UK.

- Chiefs LB Justin Houston was named AFC Defensive Player of the Week for the second time this season. Houston sacked Michael Vick 3.5 times last week and he and the Chiefs defense could be in for more as they host the Giants. Giants QB Eli Manning was sacked seven times in last week's loss to Carolina.

- The Jacksonville Jaguars host the Indianapolis Colts in an AFC South battle Sunday. The Jags and Colts have played under the total in four straight matchups. Total for Sunday is 42.5.

- Texans star-WR Andre Johnson will get the start against the Seahawks. The last time the teams met (2009), Johnson had 11 grabs for 193 yards and a pair of TDs in a 34-7 Texans victory.

- The Seahawks are one of four teams that own perfect 3-0 ATS records so far this season. Seattle is a 1-point road fave in Houston Sunday.

- A new chapter will be written in the Bengals/Browns rivalry. The underdog is 10-1-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings between these AFC North teams. The Browns are 3.5-point home dogs.

- The New York Jets are flagged with an NFL-leading 11.3 penalties per game and are punished to the tune of 93 yards per game.

- The Tennessee Titans have yet to give the ball away through the first three games of the season.

- Bears QB Jay Cutler is 7-1 against the Lions since joining Chicago in 2009, throwing 12 TDs and just one INT in that span.

- The Washington Redskins have allowed 1,464 yards on defense. That total is the most in the history of the league through the opening three games of the season.

- Raiders QB Terrelle Pryor suffered a concussion in the fourth quarter of Monday's 37-21 loss to the Broncos and is questionable to play against the Redskins. Backup QB Matt Flynn has been practicing with the first team this week.

- The Denver Broncos have won 14-straight regular-season games - longest active streak in the league.

- Speaking of Denver; Peyton could be in for yet another big game. Philly ranks dead last in opponent completions per game (29.3). Broncos are 11-point faves and the total is 58.5.

- Cowboys WR Miles Austin has been ruled out of Sunday's game against the San Diego Chargers with a hamstring injury.

- The Chargers are hosting the Cowboys Sunday. San Diego is just 1-4 ATS in its last five home games. The Chargers are 1-point home dogs.

- The Atlanta Falcons host the New England Patriots at the Georgia Dome in the Sunday nighter. The Falcons are 1-point home faves but are 0-3 ATS in their last three versus the Pats - two of which were in Georgia.

- Keep an eye on the status of Pats TE Rob Gronkowski. Gronk is listed as questionable, but the Boston Herald believes he is healthy enough to play.

[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, September 29

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Seahawks at Texans: What bettors need to know
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Seattle Seahawks at Houston Texans (+1, 41.5)

The Seattle Seahawks have never started a season with four straight victories and the host Houston Texans are striving to make sure that remains the case in Sunday’s showdown. Seattle is riding a top-notch defense that leads the NFL in scoring defense (9.0) and total defense (241.7 yards) and also has forced 10 turnovers. Houston ranks second in total defense (249.0) but isn’t anywhere near as stingy in preventing points, allowing 27.3 per contest.

The Texans are in a three-way tie for first place in the AFC South while the Seahawks have a two-game lead in the NFC West. Houston star receiver Andre Johnson (25 receptions) is a game-time decision after suffering a bruised shin in last week’s 30-9 loss to the Baltimore Ravens. Seahawks coach Pete Carroll is mightily concerned with reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year J.J. Watt, who has three sacks this season after racking up 20.5 in 2012. “He’s a fantastic player,” Carroll said of the Houston star during a press conference. “He just causes so many problems. He plays with incredible effort and intensity so we really have to pay attention."

TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE: The Texans opened +3 and are currently +1. The total opened at 44 but has come down to 41.5.

WEATHER: N/A

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (3-0): Quarterback Russell Wilson tied his career high with four touchdown passes in a romp over Jacksonville and has six overall while completing 64.4 percent of his passes. Receiver Sidney Rice and tight end Zach Miller each caught two TD passes against the Jaguars while wideout Golden Tate leads the way with a modest 10 receptions. The defense has forced five fumbles and accumulated five interceptions - two by safety Kam Chancellor - while cornerback Richard Sherman (one interception) continues to shut down receivers on his side of the field. Defensive end Michael Bennett has 2.5 of Seattle’s seven sacks.

ABOUT THE TEXANS (2-1): Houston’s 21-point loss to Baltimore included a franchise-record 14 penalties, zero offensive touchdowns scored and allowing the Ravens to record one defensive and one punt-return touchdown. Quarterback Matt Schaub has thrown for 838 yards and six touchdowns but running back Arian Foster (190 yards, one score) has yet to hit his stride. If Johnson can’t play, impressive first-round pick DeAndre Hopkins will receive a larger role with a chance to increase his rookie-best numbers of 18 receptions and 243 yards. While Watt has again been sensational, inside linebacker Brian Cushing (team-best 24 tackles, one interception) is playing well after having his 2012 campaign cut short by a knee injury.

TRENDS:

* Seahawks are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games.
* Texans are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.
* Over is 5-2 in Seahawks last seven road games.
* Over is 4-1 in Texans last five games in September.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The teams have split two previous meetings with Houston winning the most recent one – 34-7 in 2009 when Schaub passed for 365 yards and Johnson had 11 receptions for 193 yards and two touchdowns.

2. Seahawks DE Red Bryant (back spasms) is expected to be available.

3. The Texans are 17-6 when Foster rushes for 100 or more yards.


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[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, September 29

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NFL Top 5: Key Week 4 injuries
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With several teams well-positioned heading into Week 4 - and others already in must-win mode - key injuries will play a major role in establishing the NFL landscape beyond Sunday's games.

Here are five of the most important injuries to monitor heading into Sunday:

Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England Patriots (out, back/forearm)

There were whispers - or in the case of the Patriots, genuine hope - that Gronkowski would return from arm and back injuries in time for Sunday's game against the Atlanta Falcons. But neither he nor wide receiver Danny Amendola (groin) made the trip to Georgia, leaving quarterback Tom Brady alarmingly short on quality receiving targets for the third consecutive weeks. Gronkowski does appear to be close to returning, but that won't help New England this weekend against a formidable Atlanta team.

New England enters as a one-point underdog, with the over/under set at 49.


Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore Ravens (questionable, hip)

No one is saying much of anything on the status of Rice, who was described by head coach Jim Harbaugh as having a "better chance (to play) than he did last week." Harbaugh believes Rice will be a game-time decision, leaving bettors in the dark. If Rice does suit up, he'll face off against a Buffalo Bills team allowing the second-most rushing yards per game in the NFL (155). Rice's absence would leave the bulk of the backfield work in the hands of Bernard Pierce, who averaged just 2.7 yards per carry against Houston in Week 3.

Baltimore is a three-point underdog in Buffalo. The over/under is set at 44.5.


Terrelle Pryor, QB, Oakland Raiders (questionable, concussion)

The name "Matt Flynn" usually sends chills through the spines of Oakland Raiders fans, but they can breathe a sigh of relief. Pryor is expected to suit up for Oakland's Week 4 showdown with the Washington Redskins after undergoing one more precautionary concussion test. The electrifying quarterback has been limited in his activity leading up to the game, but says he feels good and will be given the start if he passes the test. Oakland should fare well against a Redskins team allowing an NFL-worst 488 yards per game.

Oakland is installed as a three-point underdog versus visiting Washington, with an over/under of 44.


Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals (probable, hamstring)

After being hobbled in each of the last two weeks, Fitzgerald is close to 100 percent for this weekend's pivotal matchup with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Fitzgerald couldn't get much going in last Sunday's loss to the New Orleans Saints, but that had more to do with the struggles of quarterback Carson Palmer and less to do with Fitzgerald's balky hamstring. The veteran wideout will have his hands full with Buccaneers defensive back Darrelle Revis, but the two aren't expected to be matched up for the entire game.

Arizona is listed as a one-point underdog at Tampa Bay. The over/under is set at 40.


Le'Veon Bell, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers (probable, foot)

The Steelers could use all the help they can get on offense, and they'll get some Sunday as Bell is expected to make his NFL debut. The Michigan State standout has practiced all week and appears to be completely recovered from a Lisfranc sprain suffered in a preseason game. Bell won't get a full workload in his debut, but as Pittsburgh's best rushing option he could still wind up with the most carries against Minnesota. The Steelers come into the game ranked 30th in the NFL at just over 51 rushing yards per game.

Pittsburgh is installed as a three-point underdog against the host Vikings. The over/under is set at 41.


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[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, September 29

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Eagles at Broncos: What bettors need to know
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Philadelphia Eagles at Denver Broncos (-10.5, 57.5)

The two most productive offenses in the NFL square off Sunday when the undefeated Denver Broncos host the Philadelphia Eagles. The Broncos have won their first three games by 16 or more points and scored 37 or more every game on the strength of Peyton Manning, who has passed for an NFL-best 1,143 yards and 12 touchdowns without an interception. "Peyton's playing at an all-time high right now," Eagles coach Chip Kelly told reporters. "You couple him being at the top of his game and then give him the weapons he has, it's a pretty dangerous formula to go against."

The Eagles rank right behind Denver in total yards and have been the league's top rushing attack with LeSean McCoy leading the NFL with 395 yards and Vick adding 187 yards on just 18 carries. "Stop the run and then get after the quarterback, that's always our game plan going into each game, no matter who the team is," Broncos linebacker Shaun Phillips told reporters. "But with a guy like McCoy and Vick, those guys are very dangerous and they're capable of taking over a game at any time." The Eagles have won four of the past six meetings, including a 30-27 home win in the most recent contest in 2009.

TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox.

LINE: The Broncos opened as 10.5-point faves and are currently -11. The total opened at 57 and is up to 58.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-70s with clear skies.

ABOUT THE EAGLES (1-2): As prolific as the offense has been, Philadelphia has lost two straight and now faces three consecutive road games. The productivity has been offset by seven turnovers - including five in last week's 26-16 loss to Kansas City. The defense has given up lots of yards - especially through the air - and will have its hands full against Manning and Denver's dangerous passing game.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (3-0): Denver has won 14 straight regular-season games - the longest active streak in the league and one short of the franchise record - and has hardly been challenged this season. Manning and the passing game are scoring at a record-setting clip, and Knowshon Moreno (160 rush yards) leads a solid ground game. The defense has been dominant against the run and has offset its weakness against the pass with an AFC-best six interceptions.

TRENDS:

* Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Over is 5-1 in Eagles last six games overall.
* Broncos are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Denver WR Wes Welker and TE Julius Thomas each have caught at least one touchdown pass in all three games this season.

2. Eight Philadelphia players have at least one sack.

3. The Broncos' 127 points are tied for the second-most in NFL history through three games.


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[Udog]

NFL

Monday, September 30

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Monday Night Football betting: Dolphins at Saints
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Miami Dolphins at New Orleans Saints (-7, 48.5)

Ryan Tannehill of the Miami Dolphins is used to flying under the radar as part of the much-ballyhooed NFL quarterback class of 2012. That will certainly be the case for the second-year signal caller on Monday night when he brings his unbeaten team into New Orleans for a prime-time showdown with Drew Brees and the undefeated Saints. Miami is seeking its first 4-0 start since 1995 and will try to knock off an NFC South power for the second straight week.

The return of head coach Sean Payton from a one-year suspension due to the Bountygate scandal has the Saints back on track after an 0-4 start torpedoed their 2012 season. Brees has surpassed 300 yards in each of the first three games, but the biggest change for New Orleans has come on the other side of the ball. The Saints allowed an NFL-worst 440.1 yards per game and ranked 31st in points allowed (28.4) last season, but they are yielding only 12.7 points so far.

TV: 8:40 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: The Saints opened -5.5 and have moved to -7. The total opened at 47 and is now 48.5

WEATHER: N/A

ABOUT THE DOLPHINS (3-0): Miami opened some eyes by winning at Indianapolis in Week 2 and made a loud statement last week by erasing a 10-point second-half deficit to knock off Atlanta, which is expected to battle the Saints for the NFC South title. Tannehill threw the winning TD with 38 seconds left and is completing 66.4 percent of his passes despite getting sacked a league-high 14 times. The Dolphins are still searching for consistency from high-priced free-agent wideout Mike Wallace and running back Lamar Miller, but the defense ranks eighth in the league with an average of 17.7 points allowed.

ABOUT THE SAINTS (3-0): Brees has thrown for more than 1,000 yards and had three touchdown passes in last week's 31-7 rout of Arizona, but he has also been picked off four times. Part of that is due to a punchless running game that is producing only 85.7 yards, but tight end Jimmy Graham has four TD catches and is coming off back-to-back monster games after battling an ankle injury through much of last season. The Saints' best move of the offseason was bringing in defensive coordinator Rob Ryan, who implemented a 3-4 scheme that has New Orleans yielding 295.7 yard per game - fourth in the league.

TRENDS:

* Dolphins are 1-4 ATS in their last five Monday games.
* Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last four Monday games.
* Under is 17-4 in Dolphins last 21 games on fieldturf.
* Over is 7-3 in Saints last 10 Monday games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Brees has won eight straight Monday Night Football games, throwing for 24 TDs against five interceptions.

2. Miami is expected to be without DE Cameron Wake (knee), who had 15 sacks last season but was injured in last week's game.

3. Saints WR Marques Colston has nine TD receptions in his last eight home games.


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[Udog]

NFL betting: Three teams improve to 4-0 O/U records

Despite a high total in the Denver Broncos versus Philadelphia Eagles game, the scoreline soared past the 57.5 number as the teams combined for 72 points.

The 52-20 Broncos victory moves the club to a 4-0 Over/Under record along with a pair of other teams who saw their totals go over the number Sunday.

The Chicago Bears also moved to 4-0 O/U after their 42-30 loss to the Detroit Lions.

Joining them at that clip is the Minnesota Vikings who combined for 61 points in Minny's 34-27 victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers in London, England.

The Green Bay Packers, who are enjoying their bye week, sit at 3-0 O/U

[Udog]

NFL

Monday, September 30

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Tale of the tape: Miami Dolphins at New Orleans Saints
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The Miami Dolphins visit the New Orleans Saints for a Monday night showdown involving a pair of surprise unbeaten teams. The Dolphins have fared well against potent Atlanta and Indianapolis pass attacks, but should be in for their toughest assignment of the young season as they look to silence Drew Brees and the vaunted New Orleans offense.

Here's the breakdown in our betting tale of the tape:

Offense

The Dolphins' attack was supposed to be bolstered with the arrival of former Pittsburgh Steelers wideout Mike Wallace, but Miami still ranks in the bottom quarter of the NFL in yards per game (319.3). The passing game has actually improved marginally, sitting in the middle of the pack, but at just 70.3 rushing yards per game entering Monday night, the running back tandem of Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas need to be better. The two continue to share carries, with Miller amassing 32 and Thomas 21 through the first three games.

Brees looks as dangerous as ever, averaging better than 340 yards per game through the air while racking up six passing touchdowns. His top target has been Pro Bowl tight end Jimmy Graham, who has decimated opposing defenses to the tune of 358 receiving yards and four scores. Even if the Dolphins find a way to contain him, Brees has no shortage of secondary weapons, led by veteran wide receiver Marques Colston (14 receptions, 202 yards, TD) and speedy running back Darren Sproles (16 receptions, 163 yards).

Edge: New Orleans


Defense

Miami has opened with three consecutive victories despite being below average in both rush and pass defense. The Dolphins are surrendering nearly 109 yards per game on the ground, and were gashed for 146 by the Atlanta Falcons in a narrow Week 3 victory. Things have been slightly worse in pass defense (21st in yards per game), thanks in large part to Andrew Luck's 321-yard explosion in Miami's 24-20 triumph in Week 2. Miami comes into Week 4 with a plus-two turnover differential.

The years of horrid New Orleans defensive performances may be in the rearview mirror following a string of impressive efforts to open 2013. The Saints boast one of the top pass defenses in football coming into Week 4, ranked fourth in the league at 184.3 yards surrendered per game. They limited Arizona to 161 yards through the air in last week's 31-7 thrashing while intercepting quarterback Carson Palmer twice. The run defense has been slightly below average, ranked 20th in the league at 111.3 yards against per game.

Edge: New Orleans


Special Teams

Miami has one of the best kickoff return games in the league so far, averaging 26.2 yards per attempt - good for eighth in the NFL. By comparison, the Dolphins find themselves in the middle of the pack in punt returns (7.3 per attempt). Rookie Placekicker Caleb Sturgis has been perfect to date, going 6-for-6 on field-goal attempts - including five from 40 yards or further - and 8-for-8 on extra points. The 2013 fifth-round pick connected on field goals of 46 and 50 yards in Week 3's 27-23 victory over the Falcons.

New Orleans has been impressive in its own right with kickoff returns, averaging 30 yards on four attempts. Punt returns are a different story altogether; the Saints are averaging just six yards in six attempts, good for 23rd in the league. Veteran kicker Garrett Hartley has been kept busy through the first three games, going 7-of-8 on field-goal attempts and 7-of-7 on extra points. He converted a 31-yard kick for his only field goal of the game against the Cardinals, though he added four extra points.

Edge: Miami


Notable quotable

"He is a tremendous athlete and the two things that stand out, his ability to elevate and jump. He is explosive and has outstanding hands on the ball. He is a player that I know studies a lot of film and when you watch him now this season, you see all the things you saw on a yearly basis twice during the year (when he was with Atlanta)." – Saints head coach Sean Payton on Dolphins cornerback Brent Grimes

"I think the game has slowed down for him tremendously. He's seen all the different looks the defense is giving him in terms of fronts and pressures and coverages, so it's slowed down for him." – Dolphins quarterbacks coach Zac Taylor on second-year QB Ryan Tannehill


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[Udog]

Where the action is: Sharp Monday money on Saints, Under

Monday Night Football is a battle of unbeaten teams when the Miami Dolphins visit the New Orleans Saints. We talk to sportsbooks about the action coming in, the betting trends and where the odds could land before kickoff:

Miami Dolphins at New Orleans Saints – Open: -6, Move: -7.5

The Saints opened below the key number of a touchdown but were quickly bet up to -7 with sharp and public money pushing the spread. Books thought the adjustment to a touchdown would tempt Miami backers, however, with action coming in strong on the Saints and many parlays connected to the home side, books had no choice but to move again and add the half-point hook.

“With nearly 70 percent of the action on the Saints, combined with quite a bit of parlay liability, we had to go to 7.5 in hopes of limiting anymore liability on the Saints,” Michael Stewart of CarbonSports.ag tells Covers. “Since going to 7.5, action has been dead even, so I doubt we'll move off this number at any point today.”

The total for the Monday night game hit the board at 48 points and immediately took money on the Over. As Sunday’s games played out, parlays tied into the Over Monday, forcing books to pump up the number to 49.5. However, since that adjustment, sharp action has bought back on the total.

“Early this morning we booked very sharp action under that number,” says Stewart. “It's action sharp enough that we have to respect the bet and make a move, so we're back to 49 and I believe we will be dealing this number for most of the day. Roughly 65 percent of the action is on the Over.”

[Udog]

NFL odds: Week 5 opening line report

If your sportsbook is currently dealing Kansas City as a 3-point favorite in Tennessee this Sunday, take a picture. According to one Las Vegas oddsmaker, it’s not going to last long.

The 4-0 Chiefs opened as field-goal faves visiting a Titans squad that just lost its hottest player. Tennessee QB Jake Locker was lighting up the scoreboards before being carted off with a hip injury during Week 4’s blowout win against the Jets.

“We originally sent out Kansas City as a short favorite but since the Locker injury, we’ve suggested a move to Chiefs -3,” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, tells Covers. “Books should likely get off three pretty quickly. With the combo of Kansas City’s success and Tennessee losing their quarterback, I don’t know where the Titans money is going to come from.”

The Chiefs have been dominant in their last two outings and coming off a 31-7 beating of the winless Giants Sunday. Korner says Kansas City may be peaking too early, but doesn’t see it taking a step back against a Tennessee team turning to veteran QB Ryan Fitzpatrick as its backup.

“Fitzpatrick is probably a better option at backup than most teams have,” says Korner. “He’s been there before and the team will rally around him. But if things keep going K.C.’s way, why not take the Chiefs as a field-goal fave?”

Seattle Seahawks at Indianapolis Colts (+2.5, 43)

Korner’s stable of oddsmakers sent out Indianapolis as a 3-point home underdog but the early action has trimmed that spread by half a point at some books. Seattle looked human for most of Sunday’s game with Houston, but turned it on down the stretch and squeaked out an OT win to improve to 4-0.

“We’re a little worried about two road games in a row,” Korner says of the Seahawks’ schedule. “Being on that key number was important for us. Seattle’s tight game Sunday should help keep the Seahawks money in check a bit this week.”

Denver Broncos at Dallas Cowboys (+7, 55)

This is shaping up to be the biggest game of the week, with the NFL’s best team taking on its most popular. Korner says the Cowboys faithful will show up but doesn’t think it will be enough to keep this spread from crossing the key number of 7.5.

“Denver looks as impressive as any team we’ve seen in recent seasons,” he says. “We had three guys bring Denver -3 to the table and one said Denver -6. We all immediately agreed on Denver -6. The Broncos can pile it on anywhere. They sky is the limit with this line.”

Houston Texans at San Francisco 49ers (-7, 42.5)

This Sunday Night Football line could have been very different if Houston had of hung on against Seattle. But, that letdown and a sharp performance from the Niners on Thursday have oddsmakers thinking twice about San Francisco’s early struggles.

“That (Thursday) win put it in the minds of people that San Francisco can put it all together,” says Korner. “I don’t know if they’re back on track yet but if they can handle Houston, it would seem like they’re back track. On paper it should be a good game, but after Houston lost that one Sunday…”

Korner says Northern Nevada books, which get a lot of bettors from the Bay Area, should add a couple more points to this spread and hike the parlay card line to 8.5.