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**Udog** · 09-26-2013, 09:25 AM

NFL Week 4 opening line report: Books coming off winning Sunday

Sportsbooks in Las Vegas are celebrating a huge windfall from Week 3 of the NFL season, with numerous upsets coming up big for books.

While favorites finished the day 9-4-1 ATS – usually a recipe for disaster for sportsbooks – the chalk that did lose was tied into plenty of parlays and teasers, wiping out many muti-wager ticket holders. Losses from the San Francisco 49ers, Minnesota Vikings, Green Bay Packers and New York Giants were more than enough.

“The Browns were a huge, huge game. We had an obscene amount of teasers on the Vikings,” MGM Resorts sportsbook director Jay Rood told Matt Youmans of the Las Vegas Review-Journal. “The sharps and public were all on the Giants. Everybody was betting the Giants like it was free money.”

Chalk one up for the bad guys. But perhaps the betting public will have its revenge in Week 4, which has more than a few tricky spreads and totals to tangle with. Maybe the hardest game to get a handle on is the 0-3 vs. 3-0 matchup between the winless Giants and undefeated Kansas City Chiefs.

Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, sent out a line of Chiefs -4.5 but the books have watched that spread shorten to K.C. -3.5 with early money on the road team.

“I don’t know why the early money is on New York,” says Korner. “Not sure if it’s the ‘due factor’ with them or if it’s wiseguys trying to draw it down before coming back strong on gameday. I don’t see the value in them coming off a road game and heading into an even tougher road spot.”

Seattle Seahawks at Houston Texans (+3, 43)

The Seahawks made a believer out of bettors by topping the 20-point spread versus Jacksonville Sunday, and books are following that with a statement spread in Week 4. Seattle is a field-goal fave in Houston and could go even higher by kickoff.

“They are the team right now and we don’t want to be caught short,” says Korner. “Seattle is drawing money at -19 and -20 and Houston hasn’t had the results to warrant them being a favorite here.”

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Minnesota Vikings (Pick, 41)

Two 0-3 teams jump the pond to play at Wembley Stadium in London, England. I bet the Brits are pumped for that…

According to Korner, oddsmakers just toss out the home-field edge when factoring these games in London. And, with Minnesota and Pittsburgh both showing very little to start the year, this game was sent out with a suggested spread at a pick’em.

“What’s a better number than that?” Korner says of the pick spread. “We’re weary of the total, because of the weather there. It’s often rainy.”

The total for Sunday’s overseas showcase was sent out at 41 points. The forecast for London is calling for rain, with a chance of thunderstorms and evening showers Sunday.

Philadelphia Eagles at Denver Broncos (-10, 55)

Two of the fastest offenses in the league clash in this Week 4 track meet.

The Eagles attack is averaging 207.7 rushing yards – tops in the NFL – and 26.3 points while the Broncos are No. 1 in passing – 376 yards – and scoring, at 45 points per game heading into Monday night. Neither side is great at defense either, making for one big total.

“We put out 55 but it’s up as high as 58 out there now,” says Korner. “We’ll likely be suggesting a move up as well. Two teams known for scoring, and the Eagles don’t play any defense. The Broncos have all those offensive weapons. I could see this going higher.”

Miami Dolphins at New Orleans Saints (-6, 47)

The Dolphins would likely be as high as 9-point underdogs heading to New Orleans any other season. But, this year, the Fins are one of the few 3-0 squads and are commanding the respect of oddsmakers in Week 4.

“Miami has some good weapons and is going to keep this competitive,” says Korner. “I can’t tell you where this line will go. The six looks like a solid line. Miami is going to make this game interesting."

**Udog** · 09-26-2013, 09:26 AM

Where the action is: NFL mid-week line moves

NFL Week 4 lines have been on the board since late Sunday at some books which is more than enough time for the betting markets to force the oddsmakers’ hands and adjust those original odds. We talk to online sportsbooks about the biggest mid-week line moves heading toward the weekend:

Seattle Seahawks at Houston Texans – Open: 43.5, Move: 41.5

The total for this highly-anticipated matchup has been trimmed as many as two points at some books, with early action expecting a defensive stalemate. Seattle is tops in the league, allowing just nine points on 241.7 yards per game. Houston is right behind them, giving up only 249 yards per contests through the first three weeks.

Sharp money has come in on the Under but bookmakers expect the public to look to the Over, after the Seahawks scored 45 points in a blowout win over Jacksonville last Sunday.

“It’s still very early, but so far we’ve written more bets on the Over,” Peter Childs of Sportsbook.com tells Covers. “But, we very much respect the Under action more than the Over action.”

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars – Open: +9.5, Move: +7.5

As mentioned above, the Jaguars are coming off a thrashing in Seattle but the early action has trimmed this spread as many as two points. The Colts have a bad habit of finding themselves in close games – no matter the level of competition – and could be bound for a letdown after upsetting San Francisco last Sunday.

“This line definitely looks heavy on Indianapolis, but it’s hard not to favor them by a good amount,” Aron Black of Bet365.com tells Covers. “It’s a lot of points to give on the road, but you can’t say Jacksonville is worth too much regardless if it’s at home or on the road. Indy is one of our heavier-played teams so far, and Jacksonville is about as friendless as you can be for a mid-week position. I can’t see this going anywhere but towards Indianapolis.”

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Minnesota Vikings – Open: Pick, Move: +2.5

This neutral-site game in London, England features two 0-3 squads looking for their first win – regardless of what country it comes in. Despite an embarrassing loss to Chicago on Sunday Night Football, the betting market is still behind the Steelers – especially with Minnesota QB Christian Ponder listed as questionable with a rib injury.

“Ponder’s backup Matt Cassell isn’t that much of a downgrade from Ponder. We feel bettors are going to back the Steelers in this game,” says Childs.

With this game taking place at Wembley Stadium, UK books usually take extra action on these NFL England showcases. However, according to Black, the winless records of both sides are keeping the early action at bay. He does expect more money to come closer to kickoff Sunday.

Dallas Cowboys at San Diego Chargers – Open: Pick, Move: +2.5

The Cowboys impressed enough people with their thumping of St. Louis last week to move this spread off the fence and as many as 2.5 points. That, coupled with San Diego’s poor defense and bad habit of imploding late in the game has this line teetering on the key number of three.

“Action so far is pretty split,” says Black. “And it’s hard to tell where this line will go, but I would say it stays pretty solid where it is, barring any unforeseen news.”

New England Patriots at Atlanta Falcons – Open: Pick, Move: -2.5

The Patriots have fallen out of favor with bettors after a not-so-impressive 3-0 start. New England has squeaked by the Bills and Jets, and took advantage of a crumbling Tampa Bay team last weekend.

Atlanta isn’t that hot right now either, falling to 1-2 after a loss to Miami in Week 3. Last year, the Falcons didn’t suffer their second loss until Week 14. According to Childs, both sharp and public money on Atlanta has pushed the opener as many as 2.5 points.

“That’s a pretty big move considering the team they are facing, a 3-0 Pats team that the public usually loves to back,” says Childs. “From the support the Falcons are seeing in this game, it’s a testament that people are very down on the Patriots and don’t buy their 3-0 start against arguably the worst teams in the NFL.”

Childs does believe there will be some buyback on New England as an underdog. With this being the Sunday Night Football matchup – often the banker game for an NFL Sunday – he says books will be cheering for the Patriots, which is a rare occurrence in NFL betting.

“It might be a welcome change for us to root for the Pats and the plus points,” he says.

**Udog** · 09-26-2013, 09:27 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 4

San Francisco at St. Louis
The 49ers look to snap their two-game losing skid and take advantage of a St. Louis team that is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 home games. San Francisco is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the 49ers favored by 12. Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-3). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 26

Game 101-102: San Francisco at St. Louis (8:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 140.518; St. Louis 128.169
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 12; 46
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 3; 42
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-3); Over

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 29

Game 199-200: Pittsburgh vs. Minnesota (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 129.046; Minnesota 125.186
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 4; 38
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 42
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-1 1/2); Under

Game 201-202: Baltimore at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 133.136; Buffalo 133.522
Dunkel Line: Even; 40
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 3 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+3 1/2); Under

Game 203-204: Cincinnati at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 135.652; Cleveland 127.172
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 8 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 4; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-4); Over

Game 205-206: Indianapolis at Jacksonville (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 134.551; Jacksonville 117.807
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 17; 39
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 7 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-7 1/2); Under

Game 207-208: Seattle at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 136.172; Houston 138.588
Dunkel Line: Houston by 2 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Seattle by 3; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+3); Over

Game 209-210: Arizona at Tampa Bay (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 128.499; Tampa Bay 127.670
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 37
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay by 3; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+3); Under

Game 211-212: Chicago at Detroit (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 131.060; Detroit 136.676
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 5 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Detroit by 2 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-2 1/2); Over

Game 213-214: NY Giants at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 132.611; Kansas City 128.558
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 4; 47
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 4 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+4 1/2); Over

Game 215-216: NY Jets at Tennessee (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 127.351; Tennessee 133.411
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 6; 35
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 3 1/2; 39
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-3 1/2); Under

Game 217-218: Dallas at San Diego (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 131.385; San Diego 134.289
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 3; 49
Vegas Line: Dallas by 2; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+2); Over

Game 219-220: Washington at Oakland (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 131.843; Oakland 126.441
Dunkel Line: Washington by 5 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: Washington by 3; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-3); Under

Game 221-222: Philadelphia at Denver (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 135.533; Denver 143.830
Dunkel Line: Denver by 8 1/2; 61
Vegas Line: Denver by 11; 57 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+11); Over

Game 223-224: New England at Atlanta (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 137.093; Atlanta 140.950
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 4; 46
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 2; 50
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-2); Under

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 30

Game 225-226: Miami at New Orleans (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 132.193; New Orleans 141.914
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 9 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 6 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-6 1/2); Under

**Udog** · 09-26-2013, 09:28 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 4

Thursday, September 26

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SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 2) at ST LOUIS (1 - 2) - 9/26/2013, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 19-35 ATS (-19.5 Units) in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 129-165 ATS (-52.5 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 129-165 ATS (-52.5 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 94-129 ATS (-47.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 23-40 ATS (-21.0 Units) in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 3-1 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-1 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, September 29

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PITTSBURGH (0 - 3) vs. MINNESOTA (0 - 3) - 9/29/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BALTIMORE (2 - 1) at BUFFALO (1 - 2) - 9/29/2013, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CINCINNATI (2 - 1) at CLEVELAND (1 - 2) - 9/29/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 59-86 ATS (-35.6 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 2-1 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 3-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANAPOLIS (2 - 1) at JACKSONVILLE (0 - 3) - 9/29/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 3-1 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 3-1 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SEATTLE (3 - 0) at HOUSTON (2 - 1) - 9/29/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 14-2 ATS (+11.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ARIZONA (1 - 2) at TAMPA BAY (0 - 3) - 9/29/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CHICAGO (3 - 0) at DETROIT (2 - 1) - 9/29/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 44-65 ATS (-27.5 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 3-1 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 3-1 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY GIANTS (0 - 3) at KANSAS CITY (3 - 0) - 9/29/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 28-14 ATS (+12.6 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NY JETS (2 - 1) at TENNESSEE (2 - 1) - 9/29/2013, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 13-29 ATS (-18.9 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 1-0 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 1-0 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (2 - 1) at SAN DIEGO (1 - 2) - 9/29/2013, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 20-35 ATS (-18.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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WASHINGTON (0 - 3) at OAKLAND (1 - 2) - 9/29/2013, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 28-48 ATS (-24.8 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 51-82 ATS (-39.2 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
OAKLAND is 30-65 ATS (-41.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PHILADELPHIA (1 - 2) at DENVER (3 - 0) - 9/29/2013, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 46-69 ATS (-29.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW ENGLAND (3 - 0) at ATLANTA (1 - 2) - 9/29/2013, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 78-45 ATS (+28.5 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 99-70 ATS (+22.0 Units) in road games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 99-70 ATS (+22.0 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 77-54 ATS (+17.6 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Monday, September 30

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MIAMI (3 - 0) at NEW ORLEANS (3 - 0) - 9/30/2013, 8:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) against AFC East division opponents since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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**Udog** · 09-26-2013, 09:29 AM

NFL

Week 4

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Trend Report
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Thursday, September 26

8:25 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. ST. LOUIS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 7 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games on the road
St. Louis is 2-7-1 SU in its last 10 games ,when playing San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis's last 6 games when playing San Francisco

Sunday, September 29

1:00 PM
NY GIANTS vs. KANSAS CITY
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Giants last 6 games on the road
NY Giants are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Kansas City's last 7 games
Kansas City is 1-7 SU in their last 8 games when playing NY Giants

1:00 PM
CINCINNATI vs. CLEVELAND
Cincinnati is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Cincinnati's last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Cleveland's last 14 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing at home against Cincinnati

1:00 PM
SEATTLE vs. HOUSTON
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 7 games on the road
Seattle is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
Houston is 15-6 SU in its last 21 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
CHICAGO vs. DETROIT
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 5 games
Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games at home
Detroit is 8-16-1 ATS in its last 25 games

1:00 PM
ARIZONA vs. TAMPA BAY
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Arizona's last 8 games when playing Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games
Tampa Bay is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. JACKSONVILLE
Indianapolis is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Indianapolis's last 7 games
Jacksonville is 8-16 SU in its last 24 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games when playing Indianapolis

1:00 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. MINNESOTA
Pittsburgh is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
Pittsburgh is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
Minnesota is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Minnesota is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh

1:00 PM
BALTIMORE vs. BUFFALO
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing Buffalo
Baltimore is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games when playing Buffalo
Buffalo is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games when playing Baltimore
Buffalo is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games

4:05 PM
NY JETS vs. TENNESSEE
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of the NY Jets last 10 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
NY Jets are 3-6 SU in their last 9 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
Tennessee is 6-3 SU in their last 9 games when playing at home against NY Jets
Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing at home against NY Jets

4:25 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. DENVER
Philadelphia is 2-13 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games
Denver is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Denver's last 7 games

4:25 PM
WASHINGTON vs. OAKLAND
Washington is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games when playing Oakland
Oakland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Oakland's last 10 games

4:25 PM
DALLAS vs. SAN DIEGO
Dallas is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing San Diego
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games
San Diego is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games

8:30 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. ATLANTA
New England is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Atlanta is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta's last 9 games at home

Monday, September 30

8:40 PM
MIAMI vs. NEW ORLEANS
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 8 games on the road
Miami is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing Miami

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**Udog** · 09-26-2013, 09:35 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 4

Thursday's Game

49ers (1-2) @ Rams (1-2)—Both sides desperate after losing last two games; Rams looked lost in falling behind 21-0/24-0 in games at Atlanta/Dallas, after they rallied back from down 11 to nip Arizona in opener. 49ers scored one TD on 21 drives in last two games, with ten 3/outs, completing 26-55 passes in losses by 26-20 points- they’re 3-7 vs spread in last 10 divisional games, 4-0 as favorite of 3 or less points under Harbaugh. Rams are 10-5 as underdogs under Fisher, but 0-2 this year; they went 1-0-1 SU vs 49ers LY, after going 1-7 in previous eight series games, but SF has lost two of last three visits here. Home teams in divisional games are 11-4 vs spread so far this season. Rams are protecting Bradford better but WRs are not making plays and running game (57 ypg) has been non-existent. Long trip on short week for 49er team whose two best defensive players are either missing: Smith (alcohol rehab), or banged-up: Willis (wrist).

NFL

Thursday, September 26

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Thursday Night Football betting: 49ers at Rams
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams (+3, 41.5)

Less than eight months removed from a Super Bowl appearance, the San Francisco 49ers are immersed in controversy on and off the field heading into Thursday night's matchup at the St. Louis Rams. San Francisco has dropped two straight, including a stunning 27-7 defeat at home to the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday. No team played the 49ers tougher last season than the AFC West rival Rams, who battled to a 24-24 tie in San Francisco and beat them in overtime in St. Louis.

The 49ers' issues go beyond back-to-back inept performances - the team is under siege for allowing sack specialist Aldon Smith to play in Sunday's game only two days after he was arrested on suspicion of driving under the influence. Smith, who has a history of off-field issues, will enter a rehab facility to receive treatment and will miss Thursday's game. St. Louis is seeking a bounce-back effort after it was demolished by the Dallas Cowboys 31-7.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE: The 49ers opened as a 3.5-point road favorites and have been bet down to -3. The total opened as high as 43.5 and has been moved down to 41.5.

WEATHER: N/A

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: 49ers (-2.5) + Rams (+5.0) + home field (-3.0) = St. Louis +4.5

ABOUT THE 49ERS (1-2, 1-2 ATS): Losing in Seattle in Week 2 wasn't a surprise for San Francisco, but getting bulldozed by the Colts on both sides of the ball sent shock waves through the league. Colin Kaepernick turned in a breathtaking performance by throwing for 412 yards in the season opener but has tossed four interceptions and been limited to a combined 277 yards while leading the 49ers to only 10 points in the past two weeks. The absence of tight end Vernon Davis (hamstring) hurt versus the Colts, while the normally stout defense saw All-Pro linebacker Patrick Willis exit Sunday's game with a groin injury.

ABOUT THE RAMS (1-2, 0-3 ATS): St. Louis posted a gritty comeback victory over Arizona in its season opener but has fallen behind by at least 21 points in back-to-back road losses to Atlanta and Dallas. Quarterback Sam Bradford threw for a season-low 240 yards and was sacked six times against the Cowboys while receiving little help from a ground game that saw starting running back Daryl Richardson play only one snap due to a foot injury. Rookie wideout Tavon Austin, the team's first-round draft pick, has six receptions in each of the first three games but is averaging only 6.6 yards per catch.

TRENDS:

* Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in St. Louis..
* 49ers are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Rams are 7-1 ATS in their last eight vs. NFC West.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Kaepernick made his third career start at St. Louis last season and had a safety and lost a fumble that was returned for a TD.

2. The Rams tied for the lead league with 52 sacks last season, but have only seven through the first three games.

3. LB Smith was second in the league with 19.5 sacks in 2012 and has registered 37 in 35 games.

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NFL

Thursday, September 26

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Tale of the tape: San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams
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The NFC West was supposed to be the power conference but the San Francisco 49ers and St. Louis Rams have come off the tracks to start the year. One will right the ship while the other one will continue its slide when they meet on Thursday Night Football. We break down both sides with our betting tale of the tape:

Offense

The Niners offense has stalled to start the season, averaging just 14.7 points – 29th in the NFL. Injuries have depleted their once-potent offense, including a hamstring ailment for TE Vernon Davis. He’s questionable for Thursday but did return to practice this week. The Niners’ rushing attack has lost its teeth, with QB Colin Kaepernick and RB Frank Gore averaging only 101.7 yards on the ground.

The Rams are coming off a 31-7 loss to the Dallas Cowboys in Week 3. St. Louis missed out on plenty of gains due to careless drops by its receiving corps. QB Sam Bradford, who hadn’t been sacked in the first two games, was sacked six times and knocked down numerous others. The rushing attack is limping out for only 57 yards an outing, behind RB Daryl Richardson.

Edge: San Francisco

Defense

St. Louis has been a cupcake on defense, giving up 28.7 points per game – 27th in the NFL. The Rams biggest issue is their passing defense, which is allowing 288 yards through the air. However, they were bulldozed by Dallas RB DeMarco Murray for 175 yards last week. In their last meeting, San Francisco rushed for 148 yards versus the Rams.

The Niners defense is also a broken unit, with Aldon Smith in rehab, Patrick Willis nursing a groin injury and Justin Smith slowed by a bum shoulder. San Francisco budged for 179 yards rushing in a loss to the Colts last weekend and 172 yards in Week 2’s defeat to the Seahawks. The 49ers do ranked eighth versus the pass – 199 yards per game – which is pretty good considering they’ve faced Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson and Andrew Luck.

Edge: San Francisco

Special teams

With two teams struggling to find the end zone, field goals could determine Thursday’s game. San Francisco kicker Phil Dawson is 4 for 5 on FG attempts, missing a 40-plus yarder. St. Louis kicker Greg Zuerlein is a perfect 5 for 5, connecting on his lone 40-plus yard attempt.

The Rams kick returner Benny Cunningham is averaging 23.4 yards per kickoff return but St. Louis is picking up just 3.3 yards per punt return. St. Louis had a return TD burned by penalties last Sunday. The 49ers’ Perrish Cox is picking up 27.3 yards per kick return and Kyle Williams is averaging only 5.5 yards per punt return.

San Francisco punter Andy Lee has been busy, punting 16 times this season for 46.1 yards per punt. Rams punter Johnny Hekker is second in the NFC, averaging 48.8 yards on 14 punts this season.

Edge: Draw

Notable quotable

"Everybody goes through situations like this. A tipped ball, a shoe-string tackle on a third-down scramble by the quarterback where he has 40 yards to run. Their offense is a huge concern of ours because they're so talented and well coached. We're going to have to play real good defense this week." – Rams coach Jeff Fisher.

"We've just got to get back to us, and being one. We'll be fine. We feel we can do whatever we want, like before." – Niners RB Frank Gore after arguing with head coach Jim Harbaugh on his lack of carries.

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NFL

Thursday, September 26

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Trends - San Francisco at St. Louis
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ATS Trends

San Francisco

49ers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 4.
49ers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
49ers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
49ers are 19-7-3 ATS in their last 29 games following a ATS loss.
49ers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a S.U. loss.
49ers are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
49ers are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
49ers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.
49ers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC West.

St. Louis

Rams are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC West.
Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
Rams are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Rams are 18-40-2 ATS in their last 60 games in September.
Rams are 16-36 ATS in their last 52 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.
Rams are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games.
Rams are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

OU Trends

San Francisco

Under is 6-0 in 49ers last 6 Thursday games.
Under is 6-1 in 49ers last 7 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 12-2 in 49ers last 14 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 5-1 in 49ers last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 5-1 in 49ers last 6 vs. NFC.
Over is 8-2 in 49ers last 10 games overall.
Under is 4-1-1 in 49ers last 6 games in September.
Over is 4-1 in 49ers last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 4-1 in 49ers last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Under is 4-1-1 in 49ers last 6 games in Week 4.
Under is 6-2 in 49ers last 8 games following a S.U. loss.
Under is 8-3 in 49ers last 11 games on turf.
Under is 5-2 in 49ers last 7 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
Over is 5-2 in 49ers last 7 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.

St. Louis

Over is 4-0 in Rams last 4 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
Under is 4-0 in Rams last 4 games in Week 4.
Over is 5-1 in Rams last 6 home games.
Over is 4-1 in Rams last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Over is 8-3 in Rams last 11 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.
Over is 5-2 in Rams last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 7-3-1 in Rams last 11 games in September.
Under is 9-4-1 in Rams last 14 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.

Head to Head

Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in St. Louis.
49ers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings in St. Louis.
49ers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

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**Udog** · 09-26-2013, 01:10 PM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 4

Thursday, September 26

San Francisco at St. Louis, 8:25 ET NFL
San Francisco: 30-14 ATS off a SU loss as a favorite
St. Louis: 23-40 ATS in September

**Udog** · 09-27-2013, 10:09 AM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 4

Sunday, September 29

Pittsburgh vs. Minnesota, 1:00 ET
Pittsburgh: 0-6 ATS away in the first month of the season
Minnesota: 31-15 Under away off a loss

Baltimore at Buffalo, 1:00 ET
Baltimore: 17-3 Under off BB ATS wins as a favorite
Buffalo: 6-0 ATS off a road loss

Cincinnati at Cleveland, 1:00 ET
Cincinnati: 8-1 ATS off a non-conference game
Cleveland: 18-8 Under vs. conference opponents

Indianapolis at Jacksonville, 1:00 ET
Indianapolis: 5-1 ATS after allowing 14 points or less
Jacksonville: 3-10 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points

Seattle at Houston, 1:00 ET
Seattle: 3-18 ATS off a home win by 21+ points
Houston: 8-1 ATS with a line of +3 to -3

Arizona at Tampa Bay, 1:00 ET
Arizona: 9-2 Under in the first half of the season
Tampa Bay: 24-11 ATS off BB games scoring 14 points or less

Chicago at Detroit, 1:00 ET
Chicago: 0-8 ATS off a non-conference game
Detroit: 15-6 Over as a favorite

NY Giants at Kansas City, 1:00 ET
NY Giants: 17-5 Under away off BB games allowing 25+ points
Kansas City: 0-6 ATS as a home favorite

NY Jets at Tennessee, 4:05 ET
NY Jets: 0-7 ATS off an Over
Tennessee: 26-13 Over off a win by 3 points or less

Dallas at San Diego, 4:25 ET
Dallas: 8-25 ATS away off BB Unders
San Diego: 12-2 Over off an Under

Washington at Oakland, 4:25 ET
Washington: 28-14 Under off 3+ ATS losses
Oakland: 7-20 ATS at home off a division road loss

Philadelphia at Denver, 4:25 ET
Philadelphia: 2-10 ATS off a home loss
Denver: 12-2 ATS as a favorite

New England at Atlanta, 8:30 ET NBC
New England: 16-6 ATS away after allowing 6 points or less
Atlanta: 3-16 ATS off BB games gaining 375+ total yards
NFL Betting Trends for Monday, September 30

Monday, September 20

Miami at New Orleans, 8:40 ET ESPN
Miami: 11-2 Under away with a total of 45.5+ points
New Orleans: 10-1 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less

**Udog** · 09-27-2013, 10:10 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 4

Steelers (0-3) vs Vikings (0-3) (London)— What did the British do to deserve this? Steelers are horrible, with no takeaways (-9) in first three games; they’ve run ball for only 52 ypg behind banged-up OL and Big Ben can’t win games by himself (had two turnovers returned for TDs by Bears Sunday night), despite passing for 379 yards. Pitt is 10-35 on 3rd down and has allowed ten sacks (-7). Vikings are also 0-3, but last two losses were by total of five points, as Browns’ backup QB Hoyer won Metrodome opener with last-second TD pass last week. Minnesota allowed 34-31-31 points in first three games, giving up 11 TDs on 38 drives- they gave up 24 first half points in each of last two games, including TD on a fake FG last week. Not many teams have four takeaways in consecutive games and don’t win either one. AFC teams are off to 11-3 start vs NFC rivals; Steelers are 8-5 vs spread in last 13 games vs NFC teams, Vikings are 11-21-1 vs AFC teams last 8+ years.

Ravens (2-1) @ Bills (1-2)— Baltimore’s defense may be better without Lewis/Reed; they allowed no TDs on 22 drives in last two games, after getting riddled by Denver juggernaut in opener. Trailing 6-3 with 3:00 left in half last week, Ravens scored TDs on defense/special teams in 1:54 span to grab control of game vs good Houston team. Buffalo scored 21-24-20 points in first three games with rookie QB, so they can’t be too displeased; their two home games were decided by total of three points. Bills covered five of last seven tries as home dog (2-0 this year) and have run ball for average of 135 ypg, despite not getting much from Spiller (knee). Since 2007, Ravens are 4-11 as non-divisional road favorites (4-6 under Harbaugh); they’re 10-9 overall as road faves under him. Buffalo is 8-4 vs spread in game following its last 12 losses. Road favorites in non-divisional games are 4-7 vs spread league-wide. AFC North teams are 3-4-1 vs spread outside the division; AFC East teams are 6-0.

Bengals (2-1) @ Browns (1-2)—Cleveland is just 32-49 SU at home the last 10+ years, but after upsetting Vikings in Metrodome last week, should be renewed enthusiasm, especially if Hoyer gets off to fast start. Browns won last week despite four turnovers; they ran ball for 103 yards in first game without Richardson, after running for 112 yards in two games with him. Bengals are 10-2 in last 12 games on grass, 6-1-1 in last eight games as road favorite and 17-7 in game following their last 24 wins, but they’re 0-5 as a divisional road favorite (7-1-1 as non-divisional AF). Seven of nine Bengal TDs have been on drives of 78+ yards, but they’ve lost field position battle in all three games. Cleveland has been outscored 41-10 in second half of games. Cincy won seven of last nine series games, with average total in last four, 51.5; home team won six of last seven series games, with Bengals 5-3 in last eight visits to Lake Erie.

Colts (2-1) @ Jaguars (0-3)— Jax is 3-1 in last four series (post-Manning) games, after losing 15 of previous 20 against Manning; Colts lost two of last three visits here, are in huge trap game coming off 27-7 whipping of 49ers at Candlestick (336-254 TY, +2 TOs). Since ’08, Indy is 13-5-1 as a road favorite, 6-3 in division games. Second week in row on road for Colts, in 49er/Seahawk sandwich against lesser division foe; underdogs covered their first three games. Jags have been outscored 92-28 in three games (32-9 average), 55-5 in first half, allowing 165.7 rushing yards/game; none of their three offensive TDs came on drives longer than 52 yards and two of three games had extended garbage time, Jax is 5-14 as a home dog, 7-11 as an AFC South home dog; they have only two TDs in eight trips to red zone- if you bet on them, you’re a masochist. Indy running ball for 146.3 ypg, figures to improve that with Richardson added to mix.

Seahawks (3-0) @ Texans (2-1)—Houston was first team since at least 1970 to win on last play in both Weeks 1-2, then went to Baltimore and got waxed when offense/special teams gave up TDs; hard to figure Texan squad that is 9-6 as home dog under Kubiak, 13-6 as dog of 3 or less points, 7-1-1 in last nine games where spread was 3 or less either way. Seahawks are 7-2 in games with spread of 3 or less, 2-4 as road favorite under Carroll, 6-8-3 vs spread on grass; they’ve allowed only three TDs on 30 drives this year, but are just 3-6 in last nine true road games, scoring only 12 points in opening win at Carolina, its only road game. Texans gained 449-452 yards in Weeks 1-2, was held to 264 last week, as trend of them folding vs top teams continues to hold. Home teams won pair of one-sided series games; Seattle lost 34-7 in only visit to Reliant, four years ago. AFC South teams are 2-7 vs spread in non-divisional games so far this season.

Cardinals (1-2) @ Buccaneers (0-3)—Didn’t take long for Schiano to pull plug on QB Freeman ($8.43M/year) in favor of rookie Glennon, whom he tried to recruit for Rutgers; Bucs have one TD on 21 drives in last two games, completed 45.7% of passes in three games, very poor, but last coach to cut a QB loose in order to play Glennon got canned within 15 months (Russell Wilson/O’Brien at NC State). Tampa won six of last eight series games, with last six all decided by 7 or less points. Arizona lost last three played here by 4-1-7 points. Cardinals are just 6-24 on 3rd down last two games, scoring 22 points on nine trips to red zone; they’re 9-7-1 as road dog since 2011, but have terrible injury problems at LB, losing three guys in last week. Since ’09, Bucs are 5-9-1 as home favorites- they’re 5-10-1 in last 16 games as a non-divisional HF. Home teams are 7-1 vs spread in non-divisional games involving NFC South teams.

Bears (3-0) @ Lions (2-1)—Chicago won nine of last 10 series games, taking last three by 24-6-2 points; Bears won four of last five visits to Motor City, are off to 3-0 start under Trestman, winning field position in all three games by 14-15-14 yards, unusually good to have three straight games like that. Chicago has 11 takeaways (+6) in three games, with defense scoring three TDs in last two weeks. Detroit WR Burleson broke his arm “bringing pizza home” during week; I eat more pizza than anyone I know, always get it delivered. Detroit threw for 352/358 yards in its two wins, 273 in loss at Arizona; with Freeman getting benched in Tampa, Stafford is last starting QB left from draft class of ’09. Lions have only four turnovers in four games; they better protect ball here. Since ’08, Bears are 8-15-2 as road underdogs; Lions are 9-6 in last 15 games as home favorites. Detroit has 27 penalties for 259 yards; Chicago has 11 for 119.

Cowboys (2-1) @ Chargers (1-2)—All three San Diego games were decided by exactly three points, with both their losses in last 0:30; home teams lost last four games in this series, with Dallas winning four of five visits here (only loss 24-23 in ’83). Five of last seven series games were decided by 4 or less points. Pokes are 6-12-1 under Garrett in games where spread was 3 or less points; San Diego is 6-9-1 in last 16 such games. AFC is off to 11-3 start vs NFC rivals; entire NFC East is at AFC West this weekend. Cowboys scored 36-31 in their wins, were held to 16 in loss at Arrowhead; Chargers allowed 33-30-20 points so far this year, but have had a TD drive of less than 50 yards in all three games, as defense/special teams helped them win field position battle all three games. After converting 17-29 on third down in first two games, Bolts were just 3-9 in Nashville. After getting six takeaways in season opener, Dallas has only one in last two games (+3 in turnovers for year).

Giants (0-3) @ Chiefs (3-0)—Andy Reid might already be NFL Coach of the Year; his Chiefs have been +15/+14/+23 in field position in winning first three games (they were 2-14 LY)- they’re +9 in turnovers, while Giants are -9. All three KC games have stayed under the total as Chiefs have run ball for 127 ypg and Smith has totally avoided mistakes, taking sacks instead of making risky throws. Manning has been sacked 11 times (-8) and Big Blue allowed 21+ points in second half of all three games- they converted 4 of 23 third down plays in last two games. Banged-up Giant OL has been unable to open holes (44.3 rushing yards/game). Chiefs are just 3-15-1 in last 19 games as a home favorite; they’ve covered 10 of last 14 vs NFC foes, but failed to cover in narrow 17-16 (-3) Week 2 win over Dallas. Giants won last four series games, all by 10+ points; they’re 4-2 in Arrowhead, which was built exactly like old Swamp Stadium.

Jets (2-1) @ Titans (2-1)—Rookie QB Smith has been better than advertised for Jets, who lost here 14-10 (+1.5) in Week 15 Monday nighter LY, just second Tennessee win in last seven series games. Jets are 3-2 in Nashville, but are just 1-5 in last six games as a non-divisional road dog (they’re 11-4 in last 15 games as a divisional road dog). Gang Green is 2-1 despite -6 turnover ratio; they don’t have a takeaway in last two games, but also have yet to allow more than 5.4 yards/pass attempt in many game. Tennessee has yet to turn ball over behind mobile-but-erratic Locker, who led last-minute TD drive to nip Chargers here last week; Titans are 4-5-1 as home favorite under Munchak, 7-13 in game following their last 20 wins. AFC East teams are 6-0 vs spread in non-divisional games; AFC South teams are 2-7, 0-3 at home. 50 years ago, the Jets were known as the New York Titans, the Titans were known as the Houston Oilers; go figure.

Redskins (0-3) @ Raiders (1-2)—Winless Washington limps into Bay Area 0-3 after scoring three points in two red zone drives last week; they’ve been outscored 67-21 in first half of games, but played better last week in what was entertaining game. Skins are 2-2 as road faves under Shanahan who once coached the Raiders and then tormented them for years with Denver, after Al Davis shorted him on severance pay. Oakland got crushed in Denver Monday, but Broncos are doing that to everyone; concern is for improving young QB Pryor, who is showing signs of being good. Short week for Oakland, which may go to highly-paid backup QB Flynn if Pryor (concussion) can’t play. NFC East teams are 1-4 as non-divisional favorites. AFC West teams are 7-1 vs spread out of division, 4-0 as underdogs. Oakland ran ball for 392 yards in first two games, only 49 Monday night. Raiders are 8-4 in this series, with teams splitting four games played here.

Eagles (1-2) @ Broncos (3-0)—Denver is on short week after dispatching Raiders Monday night; they’ve scored 42.3 ppg in first three games, winning by 22-18-16 points. Good news for Eagles; for first time in three weeks, the other team is on a short week, not them, since Philly played on Thursday last week, but Broncos have scored 15 TDs on 36 drives, with eight TDs and a FG in 12 red zone drives- they’re 8-1 as home favorites with Manning as QB, after being 5-24-2 in that role from 2006-11. Eagles allowed 33-26 points in losing last two games, giving up 934 TY in two games, bad news vs high-powered Broncos in altitude, when both teams will be playing fast. Philly ran ball for 263-89-260 yards in first three games; they’ll need to keep ball away from #18 or this will ugly early. Eagles are 9-4 in last 13 games as a road underdog. Home teams won last five series games. NFC East teams are 2-6 vs spread in non-divisional games; AFC West teams are 8-1.

Patriots (3-0) @ Falcons (1-2)— After facing two rookie QBs and Josh Freeman (benched this week) in their first three games, Pats step up in class facing BC alum Ryan here. NE got young WR Thompson involved with two TD catches last week, but in last two games, Pats are still just 10-33 on third down, after being 11-20 in opener at Buffalo. Patriots allowed only one TD on 25 drives in last two games, but since ’07, Falcons are 24-11-1 as home favorites- Smith is 19-4 vs spread in game following a loss. Atlanta butchered end of last week’s game in Miami, missing a 35-yard FG when up 23-20 late- they had only two TDs in five red zone drives, while Miami was 3-3. Patriots are 22-15-1 vs spread coming off a win, 6-2 in last eight games where spread was 3 or less points, but just 3-6 vs NFC foes. Falcons are 23-12-1 under Smith when spread is 3 or less, but they’re already 0-2 in such games this season. Three of seven remaining unbeaten teams are underdogs this week.

Dolphins (3-0) @ Saints (3-0)—When Brees left San Diego as free agent/after his shoulder surgery, Miami chose Culpepper over him, which turned out better for Brees than Miami. Deserves mention that Saints beat Miami 46-34 in ’09, teams’ only meeting since Brees signed with NO. Unbeaten Dolphins are moving chains, converting 21-52 (40.4%) on third down and have only two penalties in last two games- they’re 28-12-2 as a non-divisional road underdog, achieved under five different coaches. Fish are 21-11-1 as road underdogs, 6-3 vs NFC opponents, 4-4 as a road dog under Philbin. Saints scored four TDs on 10 drives last week, after scoring total of three on 22 drives in first two games; Payton covered his last ten games as a home favorite (Saints were 3-3 as HF without him LY). Ryan’s defense held last two opponents to 273/247 yards, after Falcons gained 367 in opener. Unusual that first three Saint games this year all stayed under the total.

**Udog** · 09-27-2013, 10:14 AM

NFL betting Week 4 preview: Hot bets and moving odds

Welcome to Week 4, when everything in the NFL settles down and gets back to normal. Well, in theory, anyway. It’s been a tough start to the season for NFL bettors in general, but if it’s any consolation, this week’s board looks a lot more like we’re used to.

All odds current as of noon ET, Sept. 26.

Three of a kind

At press time, we have four pointspreads of exactly three points on the board and six more games that have the favorite set between -2 and -3.5. For lovers of home underdogs, there are eight teams heading into hostile territory as favorites. Washington visits Oakland as a 3-point favorite and Baltimore is a 3-point chalk at Buffalo. The Denver Broncos are the only double-digit favorite at -10.5 at home to Philadelphia.

Across the pond

The winless Pittsburgh Steelers look to snap their slump when they hook up with the Minnesota Vikings at Wembley Stadium in London. No matter what you think of growing the NFL market, these games are an absolute nightmare for any team involved. Pittsburgh is coming off a tough loss to Chicago in Week 3’s Sunday Night Game, but did show a little improvement on offense in the second half. Minnesota doesn’t even know who its starting quarterback will be right now with Christian Ponder nursing a rib injury. If he can’t go, Matt Cassel is next man up. The Steelers opened as 1.5-point favorites and are now sitting at -2.5.

On the move

Anytime you have so many spreads hovering around three points, you’ll see a lot of significant movement. Keep an eye on each of these lines right up until kickoff. Baltimore opened as a 3.5 favorite at the Bills, but Buffalo bettors chimed in to drop that number to Ravens -3. Tampa Bay went from -3 to -2.5 at home to Arizona after word came out QB Josh Freeman is sitting down in favor of Mike Glennon. Jets supporters helped move New York from a 4.5-point underdog to +3.5 and Sunday night’s matchup between the New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons has moved from a pick ‘em to Falcons -2.

Who’s hot, who’s not

Bettors aren’t giving up on the San Francisco 49ers just yet. San Fran has allowed 56 points in consecutive losses and heads to St. Louis as a 3.5-point favorite but we’re still seeing 77 percent of 49ers tickets.

**jt4545** · 09-29-2013, 05:12 AM

Udog, good luck and thanks for the kind words

**Udog** · 09-29-2013, 08:57 AM

Originally posted by jt4545 View Post

Udog, good luck and thanks for the kind words

Good morning, jt! I hope the two of you had a wonderful day!

**Udog** · 09-29-2013, 09:00 AM

NFL

Sunday, September 29

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Sunday's NFL Week 4 betting cheat sheet: Early action
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills (+3, 44.5)

After a disastrous season-opening shellacking, the Baltimore Ravens are making strides toward resembling the team that hoisted the Lombardi Trophy earlier this calendar year. The Ravens look to build off a pair of dominating defensive efforts on Sunday when they visit western New York to face the Buffalo Bills.

The Bills' backfield survived a scare as talented rusher C.J. Spiller has been a full participant in practice despite tweaking his quad in last week's 27-20 loss to the New York Jets. To add insult to injury, the Bills were unable to capitalize on 20 penalties en route to suffering their second loss to an AFC East rival.

LINE: Baltimore opened as a 3-point road fave. The total opened at 44 and is now up to 44.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Baltimore (-1.5) + Buffalo (+6.0) + home field (-3.0) = Buffalo +4.5
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-60s. Wind will blow across the field at 9 mph.
TRENDS:

* Bills are 0-4 ATS in their last four games in Week 4.
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Ravens are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.

Arizona Cardinals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1, 40)

Larry Fitzgerald found the going tough last weekend - and he may be in for an even rougher ride against Tampa Bay. The veteran WR fought through a hamstring injury to haul in five passes for 64 yards against the Saints, but had just six targets on the afternoon as QB Carson Palmer struggled with the revamped New Orleans pass defense. Fitzgerald says he's close to 100 percent - and he'll need to be against Buccaneers defensive back Darrelle Revis.

Rookie Mike Glennon will line up under center Sunday afternoon as the winless Buccaneers shake things up against the visiting Arizona Cardinals. Head coach Greg Schiano made the decision to switch quarterbacks after Josh Freeman struggled for a third consecutive week in a 23-3 defeat at the hands of the New England Patriots.

LINE: The Bucs opened -2.5 but are currently -1. The total opened at 40.5 and is now 40.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Arizona (+4.5) - Tampa Bay (+4.5) + home field (-3.0) = Buccaneers -3.0
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-80s. Wind will blow across the field at 6 mph.
TRENDS:

* Under is 7-0 in Buccaneers last seven games overall.
* Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a S.U. loss.
* Under is 7-2 in Cardinals last nine games in September.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Minnesota Vikings (+3, 41.5)

Ben Roethlisberger put the game on his shoulders last week against Chicago and ended up throwing two interceptions and losing a pair of fumbles in the 40-23 loss. Roethlisberger caused a minor stir with comments on his radio show about rookie running back Le’Veon Bell’s toughness but quickly backtracked and is hoping Bell (foot) can add another dimension to the offense when he makes his expected NFL debut.

Quarterback Christian Ponder struggled to take advantage of defenses crowding the line to stop RB Adrian Peterson and a fractured rib suffered last week opened the door for Matt Cassel to start in his place.

LINE: The Vikings opened as 1-point dogs and are now +3. The total is 41.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Steelers (+4.5) - Vikings (+5.0) = Steelers -0.5
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-50s with overcast skies.
TRENDS:

* Steelers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* Under is 4-1 in Steelers last five games overall.
* Vikings are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games in Week 4.

New York Giants at Kansas City Chiefs (-4, 43.5)

Eli Manning has tossed a league-high eight interceptions - although a patchwork offensive line contributed in his getting sacked an alarming seven times last week. The two-time Super Bowl-winning quarterback's troubles fell on deaf ears as wideout Hakeem Nicks bristled that "(he) can't throw it to myself" after seeing just one pass attempt sail in his direction last week.

The Kansas City Chiefs have made themselves at home at the expense of the NFC East. The undefeated Chiefs vie for their third consecutive victory against a representative from that division on Sunday when they host the winless New York Giants. After edging Dallas in Week 2, coach Andy Reid's club cruised to a convincing 26-16 triumph over his former one in Philadelphia on Sept. 19.

LINE: KC opened as a 4-point home fave. The total opened at 44 and is down to 43.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Giants (+4.0) + Chiefs (-1.0) + home field (-3.0) = Chiefs -8.0
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-60s.
TRENDS:

* Giants are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games.
* Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Under is 4-0-1 in the last five meetings.

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (+9.5, 42.5)

The Colts suddenly have one of the top backfield duos in the league with Ahmad Bradshaw (186 rushing yards) and Trent Richardson, who scored a touchdown in his first carry for Indianapolis last week. The defense was solid, if unspectacular, in the first two games but flexed its muscles against San Francisco, allowing only 254 total yards and forcing two turnovers.

Jacksonville will have Blaine Gabbert back under center after missing two games with a cut on his throwing hand. "The last couple of weeks have kind of been a blessing in disguise, to let my hand heal," Gabbert told reporters. "It gave me a different point of view and an opportunity to watch things from a different perspective."

LINE: The line opened with the Jags +9.5. The total is 42.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Colts (-1.0) + Jags (+9.0) + home field (-3.0) = Jags +7.0
WEATHER: There is a 20 percent chance of rain and wind will blow toward the south endzone at 11 mph.
TRENDS:

* Jaguars are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.
* Under is 4-0 in Colts last four road games.
* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

Seattle Seahawks at Houston Texans (+1, 41.5)

Seattle is riding a top-notch defense that leads the NFL in scoring defense (9.0) and total defense (241.7 yards) and also has forced 10 turnovers. Quarterback Russell Wilson tied his career high with four touchdown passes in a romp over Jacksonville and has six overall while completing 64.4 percent of his passes.

Houston’s 21-point loss to Baltimore included a franchise-record 14 penalties, zero offensive touchdowns scored and allowing the Ravens to record one defensive and one punt-return touchdown. Quarterback Matt Schaub has thrown for 838 yards and six touchdowns but running back Arian Foster (190 yards, one score) has yet to hit his stride.

LINE: Houston opened as a 3-point home dog and is now +1. The total opened at 44 and is now 41.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Seahawks (-8.0) - Texans (-4.0) + home field (-3.0) = Texans +1.0
WEATHER: N/A
TRENDS:

* Seahawks are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games.
* Texans are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games in Week 4.
* Under is 8-1 in Seahawks last nine games in September.

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (+3.5, 42.5)

Cincinnati's defense, which hasn't allowed a 300-yard passer in the past 17 games, frustrated Aaron Rodgers last week. The Bengals limited Rodgers to 244 yards passing and picked him off twice but they still surrendered 30 straight points in the bizarre contest.

Making just his second career start in his fifth NFL season, Brian Hoyer threw for 321 yards and three touchdowns to tight end Jordan Cameron as the Browns rallied past the Vikings a week ago. Josh Gordon was brilliant in his return from a two-game suspension, catching 10 passes for 146 yards, but Willis McGahee provided little help on the ground in rushing for nine yards on eight carries.

LINE: The Bengals opened as 5-point road faves but are now +3.5. The total opened at 41 and is now 42.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Bengals (-2.5) + Browns (+4.5) + home field (-3.0) = Browns +4.0
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with a 30 percent chance of rain.
TRENDS:

* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Cleveland.
* Underdog is 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings
* Bengals are 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. AFC.

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-3, 47.5)

The Chicago Bears can seize early control of the NFC North Division when they carry an unbeaten record into Detroit on Sunday. With a win, Chicago would have a two-game lead in the division at the quarter pole of the season. The Bears enter with loads of momentum after a 40-23 rout at Pittsburgh on Sunday night in their first road contest of the season.

Lion RB Reggie Bush told reporters this week that he expects to be ready to play Sunday after missing Week 3 with a sprained left knee. Without Bush in the fold, Joique Bell ran 20 times for just 63 yards for the league's 26th-ranked rushing attack, but he did haul in four catches for 69 yards.

LINE: The Lions opened as 2.5-point home faves and are now -3. The total opened at 48 and is down to 47.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Bears (-3.0) + Lions (0.0) + home field (-3.0) = Pick
WEATHER: N/A
TRENDS:

* Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. NFC North.
* Over is 5-0 in Bears last five games overall.
* Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

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**Udog** · 09-29-2013, 09:02 AM

NFL

Sunday, September 29

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Sunday's NFL Week 4 betting cheat sheet: Late action
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New York Jets at Tennessee Titans (-3.5, 40.5)

Jets rooke Geno Smith rebounded from a three-interception fourth quarter against New England to become the first rookie in franchise history to top 300 yards by throwing for 331 in last week's 27-20 victory over Buffalo. Although he was picked off twice versus the Bills, Smith has developed a nice rapport with wideout Santonio Holmes, who had five receptions for a career-high 154 yards, including a 69-yard scoring strike for the go-ahead touchdown.

Titans QB Jake Locker was a turnover machine in 2012 with 15 in 11 games, but the Titans are one of two teams that has yet to commit one and are an overtime loss at Houston away from being undefeated. Locker has the luxury of leaning on speedy running back Chris Johnson, who leads the AFC with 256 yards rushing and burned New York with a 94-yard scoring run last season.

LINE: The Titans opened -5 bue have since moved to -3.5. The total opened at 39 and has moved to 40.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Jets (+4.0) - Titans (+2.5) + home field (-3.0) = Titans -4.5
WEATHER: There is a 43 percent chance of rain in the forecast.
TRENDS:

* Titans are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games in Week 4.
* Under is 4-0 in Jets last four road games.
* Jets are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.

Washington Redskins at Oakland Raiders (+3, 44)

While Robert Griffin's health has generated most of the headlines, the more pressing concern for Washington is a defense that has yielded 98 points and been shredded for a league-high 488 yards per game. The 1,464 yards allowed by Washington is the most in NFL history through the first three games of the season.

Raiders QB Terrelle Pryor had emerged as one of the early-season feel-good stories after beating out Matt Flynn for the starting job, but his status is in doubt after he absorbed a helmet-to-helmet hit in the waning minutes of Monday's loss.

LINE: The Raiders opened as 3-point home dogs. The total opened at 43.5 and is up to 44.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Redskins (+3.5) - Raiders (+6.0) + home field (-3.0) = Raiders -0.5
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-60s with partly cloudy skies.
TRENDS:

* Redskins are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in Redskins last 4 road games.
* Under is 5-0 in Raiders last 5 home games.

Philadelphia Eagles at Denver Broncos (-10.5, 58.5)

As prolific as the offense has been, Philadelphia has lost two straight and now faces three consecutive road games. The productivity has been offset by seven turnovers - including five in last week's 26-16 loss to Kansas City.

Peyton Manning and the Broncos' passing game are scoring at a record-setting clip, and Knowshon Moreno (160 rush yards) leads a solid ground game. The defense has been dominant against the run and has offset its weakness against the pass with an AFC-best six interceptions.

LINE: The Broncos opened at -10.5. The total opened at 57 and is up to 58.5
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Eagles (+1.0) + Broncos (-9.0) + home field (-3.0) = Broncos -13.0
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-60s with partly cloudy skies.
TRENDS:

* Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Broncos are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.
* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.

Dallas Cowboys at San Diego Chargers (+1, 46.5)

Dallas running back DeMarco Murray exploded with a 175-yard effort in last Sunday’s victory over St. Louis that was his first 100-yard outing since the opening game of the 2012 season.

Each of San Diego’s games have down to the final half-minute, including last week’s 20-17 loss to the Tennessee Titans. Rivers is three touchdown passes away from joining Hall of Famer Dan Fouts (254) and John Hadl (201) as the only quarterbacks in franchise history to reach 200 scoring passes.

LINE: The Cowboys opened as 1-point home faves. The total opened at 45.5 and is up one point.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Cowboys (-4.0) + Chargers (+1.5) + home field (-3.0) = Chargers +2.5
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-70s with wind blowing toward the east endzone at 6 mph.
TRENDS:

* Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their last four games in Week 4.
* Chargers are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Over is 4-1 in Chargers last five games overall.

New England Patriots at Atlanta Falcons (-1, 49)

Amendola (groin) and Gronkowski (forearm/back) have both been limited participants in practice this week and are listed as questionable for Sunday. Quarterback Tom Brady made good use of Amendola in the season opener but is making do with rookies Aaron Dobson and Kenbrell Thompkins over the last two weeks, and the two finally stepped up in a 23-3 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 3.

Quarterback Matt Ryan is dealing with his own banged-up receiving corps, though Julio Jones (knee) and Roddy White (high ankle sprain) have yet to miss a game. Atlanta is opening up a three-game homestand with the Patriots after suffering each of its losses on the road, including last week’s 27-23 setback at Miami.

LINE: The game opened as a pick with the Falcons now -1. The total opened at 49.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Patriots (-5.0) - Falcons (-2.0) + home field (-3.0) = Pick
WEATHER: N/A
TRENDS:

* Patriots are 6-0 ATS in their last six games in Week 4.
* Falcons are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Over is 18-8 in Patriots last 26 road games.

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Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 4 (Thursday, September 26 - Monday, September 30)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 4 (Thursday, September 26 - Monday, September 30)

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