NFL Week 4 with Big play

[roccodean]

Hi all. Posting this before week 3 in case you have the opportunity to bet it. You can bet it in Vegas and on Sportsbook.

Atl -1.5 over NE
Full analysis to follow. This will be a 4* or 5* GOY for me barring injuries. The line is way off. The implication is that NE is 1.5-2 points better than ATL which is way off. Also a Sunday night home game for ATL.

[ravenmaniac]

Love it. Hope that is the line. Maybe Atlanta loses to Miami and New England wins big. Could be a pick. Goof luck

[yabmane]

NE -1 right now.

[roccodean]

Will grade ATL as a pick em...consensus line

ATL line (pick em) is simply erroneous. ATL gets 3.5 for home field. This implies NE is 3.5 pts better than ATL...if you watched them both play you know ATL is better. This is a gift!

Adding:
2* NYG +4 over KC

[wayne1218]

if you watched them both play you know ATL is gift

For what it's worth rocco, I agree. Problem is that theory knocked out my teeth yesterday thinking Minnesota was better than Cleveland at Home and S.F. was better than Indy at Home. Every gift I saw this weekend turned out to be coal. Hopefully this one is different.

[roccodean]

The NFL is a funny league. The better team does not always win (For example I think NYG is going to beat KC this weekend, but KC is the better team). But when the better team (ATL) is playing an overvalued team (NE) I really like it.

[jcindaville]

"The Saints are overvalued (as always) and the Cards are undervalued."


You said the Saints are overvalued too, that wasn't the case at all

[roccodean]

"The Saints are overvalued (as always) and the Cards are undervalued."


You said the Saints are overvalued too, that wasn't the case at all

Based on the line the Saints were overvalued...maybe not the outcome. But betting against overvalued teams in the long run will win money. Thanks.

[roccodean]

2* NY Jets +4 over Tenn

[kbsooner21]

"The Saints are overvalued (as always) and the Cards are undervalued."


You said the Saints are overvalued too, that wasn't the case at all

Post some plays before talking shit on others who stick their neck out there

[jcindaville]

Post some plays before talking shit on others who stick their neck out there

I can't post plays, I can't post happy birthday threads either. I ask Joe to do it.

Since Monte can't fix the site, I can't start any threads.


Mind your own business.
:-)

[roccodean]

Adding:
2* Buffalo +3.5

Will have analysis on all plays soon. Really liking this card.
Also contemplating Houston,Dall

[roccodean]

analysis:

3* Atlanta over NE (probable 4* upgrade)
Atlanta at a pick 'em is simply an erroneous line. The line implies that NE is 3.5 points better than ATL. If you watched these teams you know that this simply is not true. I am not high on ATL, but NE is not a good team but they are getting respect here because of the name and public support. Matt Ryan's record at home is 35-7 SU and ATL is 21-4 ATS after a loss. And it is a prime time game so the house will be rocking.
Plus, they are off a loss to the Phins and are going to be ready to come out swinging. NE has played the easiest schedule to date (Buff,NYG,TB) and their 3-0 record means nothing to me. Atl is 7th in YPR and is going to eat NE's soft D for breakfast. NE's offense just isn't the same, they are 31st in YPPA and Brady looks out of sync. Atlanta will win by double digits.

2* NYG +4.5 over KC
This is what I call a typical NFL game. Just when you think a team looks terrible (Giants) or great (Chiefs) the opposite happens. Sure, the Giants looked terrible last week getting shut out vs Carolina, but that is why we should bet them this week. In fact, teams off a shut out loss by 30+ are 15-5 ATS their next game. KC has not had a turnover all year and they are +9 in TO ratio. On the other hand the Giants are -9 in TO ratio. Eli has thrown 8 picks in 3 games (>2/game) and this won't continue; Over 140 games he has thrown 152 picks. Coughlin is going to have his team ready to play and I like the Giants money line as well.

2* NYJ +4 over Tenn
I didn't think I would say this before the year started, but the Jets actually look solid. I love taking a team with a stout D that is getting over a FG. This is going to be a punch you in the mouth game and you are giving me 4 points..I'll take it! The Jets are 3rd versus the run and 2nd versus the pass (best overall D statistically in this regard). I don't see Tenn scoring enough points to get the cover because their offense is bad (21st in YPR, 22nd in YPPA). There is a strong 64% ATS trend over 123 games favoring the Jets. I think the Jets have a great shot at the straight up win in and recommend a small money line wager too.

2* Buffalo +3.5 over Baltimore
How bad is Baltimore's offense? They are 2nd to last in YPR and 28th in YPPA ! You shouldn't be a road fav over a FG if you are this bad. Don't let the 30 points they hung last week fool you, 1 was a special teams TD and 1 was a special teams TD. Balt's run D is stout but theer pass D is 26th in the league (YPPA). BUffalo has looked solid as of late and I like them in the home dog position here. There is a strong trend going against the Ravens that plays AGAINST teams allowing 10 or less in consecutive weeks.

[BigWeiner]

Agree with all but Buffalo, good luck. Ravens defense will get stronger as the season progresses, Buffalo's D is nonexsistant, Ravens get fat this weekend.

[roccodean]

1* Hou +3