Announcement

**Udog** · 09-18-2013, 11:13 AM

NFL odds: Week 3 opening line report

Oddsmakers are spreading it on thick in Week 3 of the NFL season, thanks to some lopsided matchups on schedule.

The NFL’s top two teams – Denver and Seattle – take on two of its worst – Oakland and Jacksonville – forcing oddsmakers to pile on the points. The Broncos opened as high as -16.5 hosting the Raiders Monday night while the Seahawks are as high as -20 welcoming the Jaguars to CenturyLink Field Sunday.

“These numbers are made to keep the games equal,” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based service The Sports Club, tells Covers. “You treat them just like any other game on the schedule. They just are what they are.”

Double-digit spreads are rare in the parity of the NFL, and two-touchdown chalk is like finding two prizes inside a box of cereal. But getting an NFL spread in the 20-point range is like seeing Big Foot riding a Unicorn through the Lost City of Atlantis. It’s pretty rare.

The 2011 Indianapolis Colts were 20.5-point underdogs visiting the New England Patriots in Week 13 of that season. The Manning-less Colts put up a good fight, losing 31-24 with QB Dan Orlovsky at the helm.

“At this level of points, it will reduce some of the money on this game because people won’t want to get involved,” says Korner, who originally sent out Jacksonville as a suggested 16-point underdog. “I think people will take Jacksonville on a flyer and hope they get a touchdown or two.”

As for the Oakland-Denver matchup, early action has actually taken this spread down a bit, dropping the line from Broncos -16.5 to -14 as of Monday morning. Denver has been impressive in its first two wins, blowing out the Ravens and Giants, while Oakland narrowly lost to the Colts in Week 1 and defeated the Jaguars this past Sunday.

“We’re sending this out trying to overcompensate for the favorite,” says Korner, who sent out a suggested line of Denver 16. “What has Denver done to make us think they won’t play Oakland any different? They’ve done everything right and have clobbered their first two opponents. What’s not to like about Denver.”

“I don’t know how this made it to a Monday Night Football game,” he says. “An old rivalry like this isn’t going to attract people with the way things are going. But having a pointspread on a game like this will attract people. Even if it is this big.”

Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 50)

The return of the Walrus - goo goo g'joob - headlines the Thursday nighter, with new Chiefs coach Andy Reid coming back to Philadelphia.

Korner says that while the Eagles are running a different offense and defense, Reid still knows their players better than any coach in the league. He had his oddsmakers suggesting this spread as low as Philadelphia -1.5 before sending out Eagles -3.

“You have to figure Kansas City has the edge,” he says. “There is an incentive for Kansas City’s players to play for their coach. That’s worth more than the Eagles playing against one man. The Chiefs look strong and have a great shot of winning this game. They're something new and more of a mystery to Philadelphia. I don’t see it going to -3.5.”

Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins (-1, 44)

Oddsmakers are buying into Miami’s 2-0 start to the season, making them home favorites against the Falcons Sunday. The Dolphins knocked off Indianapolis on the road in Week 2 and Korner admits he wasn’t giving Miami much credit to start the season.

“We had it around -2.5 for Miami,” he says. “Atlanta is a capable team but they match up well against each other. You’re basically looking at home-field advantage with this one. (The Dolphins) kind of snuck up on me. My thoughts are much different now."

**Udog** · 09-18-2013, 11:14 AM

NFL line watch: Washington bettors shouldn't waste time

Each week during the pro football season, Covers Expert Art Aronson looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

Detroit Lions at Washington Redskins (Pick)

If you're a Washington fan, you may want to consider jumping on your team as fast as possible. This line opened at a pick’em (still available at some books), but is already starting to climb.

After holding on for a 34-24 win at home versus Minnesota in their opener, the Lions took to the road for a game in Arizona and lost 25-21 as 1-point favorites in Week 2. With a second straight road contest, games versus the Bears and the Packers looming, and facing a desperate Redskins team this week, the public is going to start jumping on the home side in this situation.

Washington has started the year 0-2 after finishing 10-6 and clinching the NFC East in 2012. It looked flat-footed in the opener versus the Eagles and shell shocked in a 38-20 loss as a 9-point dog in Green Bay last week. It's hard to believe that there are now questions regarding whether or not RG III should make way for backup Kirk Cousins (don't worry Skins fans, coach Mike Shanahan has quashed that line of thinking: "We have a lot of confidence in Robert.").

Lions bettors are keeping an eye on RB Reggie Bush. News early in the week says his knee injury is not as bad as initially thought and that the dynamic back could be in the lineup Sunday. If he's not, expect this line to climb even higher.

Spread to wait on

Indianapolis Colts at San Francisco 49ers (-11.5)

If you're a fan of the 49ers, consider waiting until closer to kickoff before jumping on your team. This line opened at -11.5 and is already dropping.

Teams that make it all the way to the Super Bowl and lose, more often than not, struggle the following season. San Francisco was looking to buck that trend in Week 1 and wiped the floor with the Packers. Last week's divisional battle in Seattle was primed to be a classic as well, but that wasn't the case as the Seahawks handled the visitors 29-3.

Andrew Luck and the 1-1 Colts are quickly garnering interest from the general betting public. Luck returns to the West Coast after stumbling in a 24-20 setback to the Dolphins last week. But with a "cream puff" in Jacksonville on deck, there will be no looking ahead for Indianapolis - perhaps another big reason this line continues to fall.

Total to watch

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (49)

If you're a fan of Overs, you may want to consider jumping on this one right away. This line initially opened at 48.5, but it's already starting to climb. There are still a lot of 49s out there, but a few 49.5s are starting to hit the board.

Peyton Manning already has nine TD passes after the first two games (Denver has a combined 90 points in that span), which has this spread on the rise.

It's hard to get a true read on the Raiders quite yet. They lost 21-17 in Indianapolis in Week 1 - a game which they actually controlled for the most part - and then beat the toothless Jaguars 19-9 in Week 2.

Until someone can actually prove that they can stop Denver's offensive assault, expect the public to keep hammering the Over.

**Udog** · 09-18-2013, 11:14 AM

Big NFL favorites are anything but a sure bet

The Seattle Seahawks opened as 20-point home favorites against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 3, which is about as rare as a vampire's steak.

There have been only nine other NFL teams favored by 20 points or more since 1985, with those teams going just 1-8 ATS in that time frame. The most recent line of that magnitude was the New England Patriots, who were 20.5-point faves hosting the Indianapolis Colts in Week 13 of the 2011 season. The Manning-less Colts lost but covered in a 31-24 loss.

Some books have taken money on the Jaguars, dropping that monstrous line to Seattle -19.5, which is even more rare than 20-plus point spreads. There have been only three NFL games with a closing spread of 19.5 points since 1985, with those favorites posting a collective 2-1 ATS mark.

The biggest spread in the past 28 years is 24 points, which has actually shown up twice since 1985. The San Francisco 49ers were 24-point home favorites hosting the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 14 of the 1993 season. They won but failed to cover in a 21-8 victory. New England was the other 24-point chalk, hosting the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 12 of the 2007 schedule. The Patriots won but fell way short of the spread, edging the Eagles 31-28.

The lone 20-plus point favorite to cover that thick line were the 1991 Buffalo Bills, who beat the Colts 42-6 as a 20-point chalk in Week 7.

The Seahawks aren’t the only NFL team giving a wheelbarrow of points in Week 3. The Denver Broncos host the Oakland Raiders as 14.5-point favorites on Monday Night Football and were as big as -16.5 earlier in the week. Since 1985, favorites between 14 and 15 points are just 38-53-3 ATS (42 percent).

Overall, favorites of two touchdowns (-14) or more are 87-111-6 ATS (187-17 SU) since 1985, covering those massive piles of chalk at just a 44 percent rate.

The biggest underdog to ever win outright during that span were the 1995 Washington Redskins, who stunned the Dallas Cowboys, 24-17, as 17.5-point underdogs in Week 14.

Note: The most profitable big favorites are teams set between -15 and -16, going 21-15 ATS over the last 28 seasons.

**Udog** · 09-18-2013, 11:15 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 3

Thursday, September 19

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KANSAS CITY (2 - 0) at PHILADELPHIA (1 - 1) - 9/19/2013, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday, September 22

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN DIEGO (1 - 1) at TENNESSEE (1 - 1) - 9/22/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 21-3 ATS (+17.7 Units) against AFC South division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 1-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 1-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CLEVELAND (0 - 2) at MINNESOTA (0 - 2) - 9/22/2013, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TAMPA BAY (0 - 2) at NEW ENGLAND (2 - 0) - 9/22/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HOUSTON (2 - 0) at BALTIMORE (1 - 1) - 9/22/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 2-1 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 2-1 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ST LOUIS (1 - 1) at DALLAS (1 - 1) - 9/22/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 34-53 ATS (-24.3 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 129-164 ATS (-51.4 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 129-164 ATS (-51.4 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 63-91 ATS (-37.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 94-128 ATS (-46.8 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 23-39 ATS (-19.9 Units) in September games since 1992.
DALLAS is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 1-0 against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 1-0 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ARIZONA (1 - 1) at NEW ORLEANS (2 - 0) - 9/22/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DETROIT (1 - 1) at WASHINGTON (0 - 2) - 9/22/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 51-82 ATS (-39.2 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GREEN BAY (1 - 1) at CINCINNATI (1 - 1) - 9/22/2013, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY GIANTS (0 - 2) at CAROLINA (0 - 2) - 9/22/2013, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 1-0 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 1-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ATLANTA (1 - 1) at MIAMI (2 - 0) - 9/22/2013, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 49-71 ATS (-29.1 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
MIAMI is 14-29 ATS (-17.9 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

INDIANAPOLIS (1 - 1) at SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 1) - 9/22/2013, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

JACKSONVILLE (0 - 2) at SEATTLE (2 - 0) - 9/22/2013, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 54-81 ATS (-35.1 Units) off a division game since 1992.
SEATTLE is 23-43 ATS (-24.3 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BUFFALO (1 - 1) at NY JETS (1 - 1) - 9/22/2013, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 2-2 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 3-1 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CHICAGO (2 - 0) at PITTSBURGH (0 - 2) - 9/22/2013, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in home games off a loss against a division rival since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday, September 23

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OAKLAND (1 - 1) at DENVER (2 - 0) - 9/23/2013, 8:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 3-1 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 3-1 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 09-18-2013, 11:17 AM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 3

Thursday, September 19th, 2013

Kansas City at Philadelphia, 8:25 ET NFL
Kansas City: 14-5 Under off an Under
Philadelphia: 0-8 ATS in home games

Sunday, September 22nd, 2013

San Diego at Tennessee, 1:00 ET
San Diego: 21-3 ATS vs. AFC South opponents
Tennessee: 6-0 Over after allowing 400+ total yards

Cleveland at Minnesota, 1:00 ET
Cleveland: 18-7 Under in dome stadiums
Minnesota: 8-1 ATS off a road game

Tampa Bay at New England, 1:00 ET
Tampa Bay: 3-11 ATS off BB losses
New England: 10-2 ATS off a division game

Houston at Baltimore, 1:00 ET
Houston: 8-0 ATS with a line of +3 to -3
Baltimore: 21-8 Under vs. AFC South opponents

St. Louis at Dallas, 1:00 ET
St. Louis: 4-16 ATS off BB games gaining 75 or less rushing yards
Dallas: 25-12 Over at home off BB ATS wins

Arizona at New Orleans, 1:00 ET
Arizona: 6-0 Under away off a win
New Orleans: 14-4 ATS in home games

Detroit at Washington, 1:00 ET
Detroit: 14-4 Over in road games
Washington: 11-25 ATS at home in September

Green Bay at Cincinnati, 1:00 ET
Green Bay: 10-2 Over off BB games allowing 400+ total yards
Cincinnati: 8-1 ATS off a win by 10+ points

NY Giants at Carolina, 1:00 ET
NY Giants: 23-10 ATS off a combined score of 60+ points
Carolina: 23-10 Under at home in the first month of the season

Atlanta at Miami, 4:05 ET
Atlanta: 17-5 ATS off BB games allowing 400+ total yards
Miami: 0-8 ATS off BB road wins

Indianapolis at San Francisco, 4:25 ET
Indianapolis: 26-6 Over off a SU loss as a home favorite
San Francisco: 14-5 ATS in home games

Jacksonville at Seattle, 4:25 ET
Jacksonville: 5-14 ATS off an Under
Seattle: 8-1 ATS in home games

Buffalo at NY Jets, 4:25 ET
Buffalo: 30-11 ATS off a win by 3 points or less
NY Jets: 2-13 ATS off a SU road loss / ATS win

Chicago at Pittsburgh, 8:30 ET NBC
Chicago: 18-33 ATS after scoring 30+ points
Pittsburgh: 19-8 ATS at home off a division loss

Monday, September 23rd, 2013

Oakland at Denver, 8:40 ET ESPN
Oakland: 13-4 Over away after allowing 50 or less rushing yards
Denver: 12-2 ATS as a favorite

**Udog** · 09-18-2013, 11:17 AM

NFL

Week 3

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, September 19

8:25 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games on the road
Kansas City is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games

Sunday, September 22

1:00 PM
HOUSTON vs. BALTIMORE
Houston is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Houston is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games on the road
Baltimore is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Baltimore is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Houston

1:00 PM
DETROIT vs. WASHINGTON
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Detroit's last 19 games on the road
Detroit is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Washington is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games when playing Detroit

1:00 PM
NY GIANTS vs. CAROLINA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Giants last 5 games when playing Carolina
NY Giants are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games
Carolina is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Carolina is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games at home

1:00 PM
ARIZONA vs. NEW ORLEANS
Arizona is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
Arizona is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
New Orleans is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games when playing Arizona
New Orleans is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Arizona

1:00 PM
GREEN BAY vs. CINCINNATI
Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Green Bay is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games at home
Cincinnati is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games

1:00 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. TENNESSEE
San Diego is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Diego's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tennessee's last 7 games when playing San Diego

1:00 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. NEW ENGLAND
Tampa Bay is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New England's last 10 games at home
New England is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games

1:00 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. DALLAS
St. Louis is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games when playing Dallas
Dallas is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. MINNESOTA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games on the road
Cleveland is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games
Minnesota is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home

4:05 PM
ATLANTA vs. MIAMI
Atlanta is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games
Miami is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta

4:25 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. SAN FRANCISCO
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 7 games on the road
Indianapolis is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of San Francisco's last 9 games
San Francisco is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

4:25 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. SEATTLE
Jacksonville is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Seattle
Jacksonville is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Seattle
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Seattle's last 23 games at home

4:25 PM
BUFFALO vs. NY JETS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games on the road
Buffalo is 4-10-1 ATS in its last 15 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Jets last 5 games when playing at home against Buffalo
NY Jets are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games when playing at home against Buffalo

8:30 PM
CHICAGO vs. PITTSBURGH
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Chicago's last 7 games on the road
Chicago is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Pittsburgh is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games

Monday, September 23

8:40 PM
OAKLAND vs. DENVER
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Oakland's last 9 games
Oakland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Denver is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games
Denver is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 09-18-2013, 09:33 PM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 3

Kansas City at Philadelphia
The Chiefs look to take advantage of a Philadelphia team that is 0-6-1 ATS in its last 7 games against a team with a winning record. Kansas City is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+3). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 19

Game 301-302: Kansas City at Philadelphia (8:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 130.509; Philadelphia 130.236
Dunkel Line: Even; 55
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 3; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+3); Over

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 22

Game 391-392: San Diego at Tennessee (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 129.342; Tennessee 134.302
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 5; 41
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 3; 44
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-3); Under

Game 393-394: Cleveland at Minnesota (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 124.172; Minnesota 133.319
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 9; 37
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 6; 41
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-6); Under

Game 395-396: Tampa Bay at New England (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 131.386; New England 136.949
Dunkel Line: New England by 5 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: New England by 8 1/2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+8 1/2); Over

Game 397-398: Houston at Baltimore (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 136.238; Baltimore 132.105
Dunkel Line: Houston by 4; 41
Vegas Line: Houston by 2 1/2; 45
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-2 1/2); Under

Game 399-400: St. Louis at Dallas (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 128.811; Dallas 129.672
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 1; 52
Vegas Line: Dallas by 4; 47
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+4); Over

Game 401-402: Arizona at New Orleans (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 126.448; New Orleans 138.542
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 12; 53
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 7; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-7); Over

Game 403-404: Detroit at Washington (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 131.676; Washington 131.005
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 44
Vegas Line: Washington by 2 1/2; 49
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+2 1/2); Under

Game 405-406: Green Bay at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 138.654; Cincinnati 133.804
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 5; 45
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 2 1/2; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-2 1/2); Under

Game 407-408: NY Giants at Carolina (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 134.321; Carolina 133.490
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 1; 50
Vegas Line: Carolina by 1 1/2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+1 1/2); Over

Game 409-410: Atlanta at Miami (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 133.960; Miami 137.804
Dunkel Line: Miami by 4; 40
Vegas Line: Miami by 2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-2); Under

Game 411-412: Indianapolis at San Francisco (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 130.403; San Francisco 138.064
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 7 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 10 1/2; 46
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (+10 1/2); Over

Game 413-414: Jacksonville at Seattle (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 120.240; Seattle 136.172
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 16; 38
Vegas Line: Seattle by 19 1/2; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+19 1/2); Under

Game 415-416: Buffalo at NY Jets (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 128.258; NY Jets 132.040
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 4; 42
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 2 1/2; 39
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (-2 1/2); Over

Game 417-418: Chicago at Pittsburgh (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 133.996; Pittsburgh 130.042
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 4; 36
Vegas Line: Chicago by 2 1/2; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-2 1/2); Under

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 23

Game 419-420: Oakland at Denver (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 127.801; Denver 139.776
Dunkel Line: Denver by 12; 54
Vegas Line: Denver by 15 1/2; 49
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+15 1/2); Over

**Udog** · 09-18-2013, 09:36 PM

Where the action is: NFL mid-week line moves

Week 3 of the NFL schedule has been a busy time for books. With oddsmakers and football bettors getting a better handle on the league, those opinions are coming into play and have multiple lines on the move as the weekend draws closer.

We talk to sportsbooks, both online and in Las Vegas, about the biggest adjustments on the NFL Week 3 board.

Green Bay Packers at Cincinnati Bengals – Open: +1, Move: +3

The Bengals’ win on Monday did little to impress bettors, who have driven this number as high as a field goal at some books. According to Jay Rood, Vice President of race and sports at MGM, nearly 98 percent of the early money is on the Packers.

“It’s been all Packers and we’re likely going to follow the pack and go to -2.5,” Rood, who opened Green Bay -2, told Covers. “Outside of a small bet on the Bengals, it’s been all Green Bay on straight-up bets, teasers, and parlays.”

Cleveland Browns at Minnesota Vikings – Open: -3.5, Move: -6.5

Cleveland is going with third-string QB Brian Hoyer Sunday after No. 1 Brandon Weeden suffered a thumb injury against Baltimore last week. On top of that, the Browns traded RB Trent Richardson to the Colts Wednesday night. That’s pushed this spread a field goal and could continue to add points to the line.

“With a healthy Weeden, they average a poultry 5.8 yards per completion - ranked 28th in NFL. And now with the announcement that Brian Hoyer is getting the start ahead of Jason Campbell, I can’t see how Cleveland is going to move the ball,” Peter Childs of Sportsbook.com tells Covers.

Detroit Lions at Washington Redskins – Open: Pick, Move: -2.5

This game opened as low as a pick but money is siding with the Redskins and has moved the spread a near field goal as of Wednesday afternoon.

“There is a lean toward Washington but the sharps haven’t tipped their hand on this one,” says Rood. “The public is hooking up on Washington and the Over.”

Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints – Open: -9.5, Move: -7
[/B]
The Cardinals have been better than expected in the first two weeks of the season and money on Arizona has echoed that sentiment, with almost all the action taking the road team down as low as a touchdown underdog. Rood believes some football fans aren’t quite sold on New Orleans as a contender just yet.

“They’re like any other team adjusting to a new head coach,” he says. “There are a lot of players on the Saints that haven’t played under (head coach Sean) Peyton. And he’s coming back with a new eye for this team. It’s kind of like the Saints have had three head coaches in three years. It’s going to take some time. This team right now will be completely different come Week 10 or 11.”

Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins – Open: Pick, Move: -3

The Dolphins are the wiseguys’ choice this week, moving this spread as many as three points at some books. According to Rood, the MGM Mirage took a limit play on Miami ($30,000) Wednesday morning, forcing them to move the line from Dolphins -1.5 to -2.5.

“The public money, however, is all over the Falcons on straight-up bets and parlays,” says Rood. “This is a classic matchup of sharps versus public. We don’t want to go to Miami -3 right away but could if the sharps keep pushing it.”

Jacksonville Jaguars at Seattle Seahawks – Open: -16.5, Move: -20

Some books were bet up to this monstrous spread while others boldly opened Seattle as a 20-point favorite hosting the lowly Jaguars Sunday. According to Childs, the early money came from sharps who gladly laid the 17 points. When the public got involved, they jumped from -18 straight to -20.

“Since going to 20, we’ve actually written nice two-way action on this game, so I can’t see us moving off that number any time soon,” he says.

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos – Open: -16.5, Move: -14

At first glance, this spread may not be enough. Denver has been dominant through its first two games but is now suffering from a dangerously-thin offensive line. The Broncos, who lost their starting center this summer, will be without left tackle Ryan Clady due to a foot injury.

“You just can’t go to 711 and get another one of these guys,” Roods says of Denver’s ailing offensive line.

“With these big spreads, the teams don’t care about them,” he says. “If (Denver) gets up by 17 points, they’re going into preservation mode and pulling guys off the bench. There’s always that possibility for a backdoor cover on a late touchdown with these (spreads).”

**Udog** · 09-19-2013, 07:53 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 3

Chiefs (2-0) @ Eagles (1-1)—Reid coached Philly for the last 14 years, was fired LY, now he returns home at 2-0 for just second time as a HC.. Eagles on short week for second week in row; Monn-Sun-Thurs start is tough scheduling spot, though last two games were at Linc. KC won its first two games without turning ball over (+4) and allowing just 108 yards on 39 rushes. Philly defense allowed 53 points in its last six quarters; Chargers were 10-15 on 3rd down last week and gained 539 yards. Eagles are now 6-13 vs spread in last 19 games as home favorite, 6-11 in last 17 vs AFC teams- they won last three series games, by 13-6-20 points, but AFC West teams are 7-1 vs spread in non-divisional games thru first two weeks of season. Chiefs were 2-6 as road dogs LY, after being 21-13 the five years before that. Weird doing trends for this game, since all the Eagle trends actually refer to the Chiefs’ new coach.

NFL

Thursday, September 19

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday Night Football betting: Chiefs at Eagles
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 50.5)

Andy Reid returns to the city where he thrived - and eventually nosedived - when he guides the Kansas City Chiefs into a Thursday night matchup with the host Philadelphia Eagles. Reid enjoyed a spectacular run during his 14-year tenure with the Eagles, bringing the team to five conference championship games and one Super Bowl appearance. Philadelphia flamed out in Reid's final two seasons, leading to his dismissal and the offseason hiring of Oregon coach Chip Kelly.

Reid has the Chiefs off to a surprising 2-0 start to match their win total from last season that locked up the No. 1 overall pick for Kansas City in the NFL Draft. Kelly, whose fast-break offense is the talk of the league after Philadelphia rolled up 63 points in splitting its first two games, said he is not concerned about the emotional impact of Reid's homecoming. “I think they’re locked in,” Kelly said. “We met and we talked about the Kansas City Chiefs, so that’s not a concern."

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE: Eagles opened -3 and went as high as -3.5 before coming back down to a field goal. The total opened 49.5 and has been bet up to 50.5 points.

WEATHER: clear skies and temperatures in the mid 60s. Winds blowing SSW at 6 mph.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Chiefs (0.0) + Eagles (+1.0) + Home field (-3.0) = Eagles -2

ABOUT THE CHIEFS (2-0, 1-1 ATS): Reid was castigated during his time in Philly for a tendency to abandon the running game so quickly, and Jamaal Charles - a 1,500-yard rusher last season - is averaging 66 yards on 16 carries in each of the first two games. Charles does have 11 catches in the West Coast offense run by quarterback Alex Smith, who has been quietly efficient with four touchdowns and zero turnovers - a welcome change for a team that tied the Eagles and New York Jets for the most giveaways with 37 in 2012. Kansas City's defense has been integral to the early success, allowing 18 points and only one touchdown.

ABOUT THE EAGLES (1-1, 1-1 ATS): Kelly's rapid-fire offense has been a boon for quarterback Michael Vick, who is enjoying a renaissance after throwing for a career-high 428 yards in Sunday's 33-30 loss to San Diego. Wideout DeSean Jackson, a malcontent for most of the previous two seasons, tops the league with 297 yards receiving while running back LeSean McCoy has piled up an NFL-high 237 yards rushing. Philadelphia's defense could not slow Washington in the second half of the season opener and was carved up by San Diego's Philip Rivers in a loss that was compounded by Kelly's clock mismanagement in the final minutes.

TRENDS:

* Chiefs are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games in Week 3.
* Eagles are 6-20-1 ATS in their last 27 home games.
* Under is 4-0-1 in Chiefs last five road games.
* Over is 5-0 in Eagles last five games overall.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Chiefs and Eagles were each a league-worst minus-24 in turnover differential last season.

2. Vick is tied with Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers for the most yards (10.3) per passing attempt.

3. The Eagles have won the last three matchups, including a 34-14 home win in September 2009.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NFL

Thursday, September 19

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tale of the tape: Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Two new head coaches prowl the sidelines on Thursday Night Football, with former Eagles coach Andy Reid returning to Philadelphia to match wits with Chip Kelly and his revamped offense. Oddsmakers have set the Eagles as 3-point home favorites.

We break down this Week 3 matchup with our betting tale of the tape:

Offense

Kelly’s high-octane offense has been as good as advertised, averaging 477 yards and 31.5 points through the first two weeks of the season. Philadelphia is running an average of 68 plays per game for 7.0 yards per snap, the majority of those coming on the ground. The Eagles have utilized dual-threat QB Mike Vick and RB LeSean McCoy, turning to the rush attack an average of 34.5 times for 176 yards per game. Speedster WR DeSean Jackson is also benefiting from Kelly’s offense, totaling 297 yards and two touchdowns through the air.

Kansas City is on the opposite end of that scale, running an average of 63.5 plays per game and not exploding for big gains, topping out at 4.8 yards per play. That could be to the Chiefs' advantage if they want to put the breaks on the Eagles Thursday. RB Jamaal Charles and QB Alex Smith have done damage on the ground, helping K.C. rank eighth in rushing yards per game (117.5). That West Coast offense has limited the passing game somewhat, with the Chiefs putting up an average of only 185 yards through the air and picking up 5.3 yards per pass attempt.

Edge: Philadelphia

Defense

Philadelphia is among the bottom of the league in most defensive categories through the first two weeks. The Eagles are allowing an average of 30 points on 460.5 yards per game, including 33 points and 413 passing yards in the loss to San Diego in Week 2. They aren’t getting pressure on the opposing passers, with just two sacks on the season. Philadelphia is thin in the secondary with CB Brandon Hughes injuring his hamstring last week.

Kansas City’s stop unit looks like it could be one of the best in the league this season. The Chiefs shutdown the Cowboys' passing game in the second half in Week 2 and only gave up six points in the final two quarters. Kansas City has locked the door on third downs as well, allowing foes to move the chains on third down just 26.67 percent of time. However, half of these defensive numbers have come versus Jacksonville and must be taken with a grain of salt.

Edge: Kansas City

Special teams

Philadelphia is averaging 22.3 yards per kickoff return but is only forcing opponents to punt two times per game though the first two weeks, and hasn’t had a chance to return those punts. On the other side, the Eagles are giving up 21.3 yards per kickoff and only 4.8 yards per punt. Kicker Alex Henery is 4-for-5 on FG attempts, going 2-for-3 from 40-49 yards.

Kansas City has attempted only two kickoff returns thanks to the new rules and is averaging 12.5 yards per return. On punts, the Chiefs are picking up a respectable 12.1 yards on returns. The special teams defense is struggling to lock up returners, allowing 27.7 yards per kickoff return and 11.0 yards per punt return. They also had a punt blocked for a safety in Week 1. Kicker Ryan Succop has only been called upon twice this season but is 1-for-2 on FG attempts, with a blocked 50-yarder versus Dallas last weekend.

Edge: Philadelphia

Notable quotables

"It means a lot, so I hope we go out there and play for our coach. You know what I'm saying? I know he has a lot of love for his Eagles, he worked there a lot of years and he probably wishes he was still coaching there." – Kansas City RB Jamaal Charles.

"Andy was here for a long time with those guys, so if you know what they’re good at (you have an advantage), but he doesn’t know our scheme and how we deploy those guys. He may have some little ins and outs. There’s a familiarity, obviously he’s familiar with Trent (Cole), he’s familiar with DeMeco (Ryans) and those guys, but the scheme defensively has changed, the scheme offensively has changed and the scheme on special teams has changed. … From a physical standpoint he’s probably got a real intimate knowledge of this team." – Philadelphia head coach Chip Kelly.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 09-20-2013, 07:45 AM

NFL betting Week 3 preview: Hot bets and moving odds

Sports Interaction betting analyst Frank Doyle previews Week 3’s NFL action.

Crazy things tend to happen just before the bye weeks begin. With that in mind, we should have known Week 3 was going to give us all we could handle. All we have to deal with is one of the biggest pointspreads in NFL history and a trade involving a No. 3 overall pick in the peak of his career.

All odds current as of noon ET, Sept. 19.

For Richer or Poorer

The Cleveland Browns stunned the NFL world by trading running back Trent Richardson to the Indianapolis Colts Wednesday evening. The move shifted the Browns from +5.5 at Minnesota before the trade to +7 as of Thursday morning, but we’re seeing 89 percent of the action coming in on the Vikings. Meanwhile, the Colts dropped from +10.5 at San Francisco to +10, even though Richardson’s playing status for Week 3 is up in the air. Super Bowl futures also felt the impact of the trade with Indianapolis moving from +5000 to win it all to +4500 while Cleveland dropped from +17500 to +26100.

Playing Favorites

After the Seahawks manhandled the 49ers last week, you knew Seattle was going to be a massive favorite when hosting the Jacksonville Jaguars. But a 20-point favorite? Actually, the Seahawks opened at -17.5 and were quickly bet up to -20 just a little more than five hours later. Since then, the market has come back a bit on the Jaguars to put the line at Seattle -19, but there is still a ton of support for the Seahawks. At this point Seattle bets are outnumbering Jacksonville wagers by a 2:1 clip.

Bust a Move

The Jacksonville-Seattle game isn’t the only matchup with a big line on the board. Denver opened as a 14.5-point favorite at home to Oakland and we’ve seen that line bump up to -15 already as bettors pile on the 2-0 Broncos. That total has moved from 49.5 points to 50, to become the second 50-point total of the week.

Meanwhile, the over/under for Thursday’s Andy Reid homecoming in Philadelphia is also above 50 and has moved from 50.5 to 51 in the last 24 hours.
Another line to keep a close eye on is Detroit at Washington. The Redskins opened as 2-point favorites but have bounced around to -2.5, down to -1, back up to -2.5 and back to -2, where the line currently sits. If it stays there is anyone’s guess at this point.

Who’s hot, who’s not

The Giants head into Carolina as 1-point underdogs and 91 percent of Sports Interaction’s betting public is all over the G-Men.

Bettors can’t get enough of the Atlanta Falcons either, who are set as 2-point underdogs at Miami. The Falcons, without the services of Steven Jackson (thigh) are seeing 90 percent of the action.

Houston is another popular bet. The Texans (-2.5) are seeing 78 percent of the action as they head into Baltimore.

**Udog** · 09-20-2013, 07:56 AM

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 3

Each week, we break down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 3:

New York Giants at Carolina Panthers (-1, 45.5)

Giants’ deep threats vs. Panthers’ thinning secondary

When they’re not busy coughing the ball up, the Giants have been able to explode for big gains. New York leads the league in passing (390.5 ypg) but more importantly averages 14.2 yards per completion, and has struck for 12 plays of 20-plus yards through the first two games.

Carolina has given up 8.2 yards per pass attempt – fourth highest in the NFL – against Seattle and Buffalo – two conservative passing attacks. On top of facing the Giants’ deep threats, the Panthers secondary is a mess, with five DBs on injury watch his week and two S going on IR.

Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints (-9, 49)

Cardinals’ red-zone defense vs. Saints’ red-zone offense

The Saints offense has stalled to start the schedule, averaging just 19.5 points through the first two games. The problem is the red-zone attack, which has punched the ball into the end zone only once and has a TD percentage of just 14.29 percent inside the 20-yard line.

Arizona’s underrated defense was among the best at shutting the door in the red zone last year, holding foes to a 44.44 TD percentage inside the 20-yard line (third lowest in the league). This year, the Cardinals have allowed three touchdowns on five trips inside their own red zone but have been able to lockdown the run. Arizona has budged for only 58 total yards on the ground – third fewest in the league.

Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins (-1, 44.5)

Falcons' fourth-quarter falloff vs. Dolphins' fourth-quarter frenzy

The Dolphins’ surprise 2-0 start has a lot to do with their ability to close out games in the final frame. Miami hasn’t allowed a single point in the fourth quarter in its first two outings and is limiting opponents to an average of three second-half points heading into Week 3.

The Falcons offense is fading down the stretch. After building quick leads in the first two quarters – 17.0 points per first half (fourth in NFL) – Atlanta has run out of gas in the closing 30 minutes. The Falcons average seven points in the second half – just 3.5 in the fourth quarter – through the first two games of the year.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Seattle Seahawks (-19, 40.5)

Jaguars’ coach Gus Bradley vs. Seahawks’ No. 1 defense

Just like how Dr. Frankenstein had to face his monstrous creation, Jaguars head coach Gus Bradley takes on a Seahawks stop unit he helped mold. The former Seattle defensive coordinator was with the franchise for four years and knows the ins and outs when it comes to his pupil Dan Quinn, Seattle’s new DC.

The Seahawks stop unit has picked up the slack for Seattle’s lack of scoring pop. Seattle’s offense shot itself in the foot with 10 penalties in Week 2 and is picking up just 18.5 first downs per game (20th in the NFL), sandwiching them between two teams with rookie QBs at the helm – Buffalo and New York. If the defense is exposed by its original architect, the Seahawks offense may not have enough fire power to cover this massive spread.

**Udog** · 09-20-2013, 09:22 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 3

Sunday's Games

Chargers (1-1) @ Titans (1-1)—Second straight trip east for Bolts, who split pair of 3-point decisions as underdogs in first two games, despite allowing 30+ points in both games- they’ve won nine in a row vs Tennessee, waxing Titans 38-10 in Week 2 LY at Qualcomm (TY 418-212). Chargers are 17-29 on 3rd down thru two games, with WR Royal scoring five TDs already. After facing prolific passers Schaub/Vick, Locker is going to be change of pace; in splitting pair of road games (lost in OT at Houston last week), Titans gained only 229-248 yards, but have seven sacks (+2 and four takeaways (+4), while running ball for 115.5 yards/game, with no giveaways. Tennessee is 4-5 as home favorite under Munchak, 3-5 as a favorite in home openers. Bolts are now 7-2 vs spread in last nine tries as a road dog. Home favorites in non-divisional games are 5-6-1 vs spread thru first two weeks of season.

Browns (0-2) @ Vikings (1-1)—Cleveland QB Weeden (thumb) likely out here; former Patriot backup Hoyer gets the start; in their first two games, Browns averaged less than five yards/pass attempt and ran ball for total of just 112 yards on 33 carries- they’re 2-5-1 in last eight games as road dog after shutting Ravens out in first half last week, but losing 14-6 (+6.5) in Maryland. Minnesota is 2-3 in last five home openers, 0-5 vs spread (0-4 as favorite); they scored TD on both defense/special teams last week, still lost 31-30 after kicking FG on all three trips to red zone. Vikes turned ball over seven times (-1) in two games, had 15-yard deficit in field position both games- they’re 3-5-1 as home favorites under Frazier, are 11-20-1 vs spread vs AFC teams the last eight years. Browns were outscored 31-3 in second half of their first two games.

Buccaneers (0-2) @ Patriots (2-0)—Curious to see Pats’ passing game 10 days after dismal showing vs Jets; their two wins are by total of five points, with NE averaging just 5.1/4.5 yards/pass attempt. Edelman caught 13 passes last week for 78 yards, not exactly Jerry Rice, but Brady was 6-21 targeting anyone else. Bucs’ two losses are by total of three points, both in last 0:10- they’ve had 23 penalties for 220 yards in two games- S Goldson's suspension for this game was lifted. Since ’09, Tampa is 18-11-1 as road dogs, 5-2 under Schiano. NE is 5-2 in this series, winning last two meetings 28-0/35-7; Bucs lost two of three visits here, but haven’t visited since ’05- they completed less than half their passes in both games so far this year, as rumors circulate that QB Freeman will walk after this year. These teams practiced against each other summer for few days before their (meaningless) exhibition game, so there is some familiarity.

Texans (2-0) @ Ravens (1-1)—Houston is first team since AFL merger in 1970 to win first two games, both on last play of game; they’ve outrushed first two opponents by 46 yards/game, even though they were outscored 31-14 in first halves. Texans crushed Baltimore 43-13 at home LY, ending six-game series skid vs Ravens; they’re 0-3 here, with last loss 20-13 in ’11 playoffs. Over last 10+ years, Ravens are 6-8 as home dogs, 2-3 under Harbaugh- they’re 20-15 under him in games where spread was 3 or less points. Since 2010, Texans are 8-5-1 as road favorites- they’re 8-0-1 vs spread in last nine games where spread was 3 or less. Star WR AJohnson (concussion) is doubtful here. Ravens averaged just 2.8 yards/rush in first two games; they won last week despite getting shut out in first half. Consistent Houston offense gained 449-452 yards in first two games, just wished they’d put pedal to metal in first half, too.

Rams (1-1) @ Cowboys (1-1)—Home team lost six of last nine series games, but Rams lost 35-7/34-7 in last two visits here; St Louis was awful in first half in Atlanta last week (trailed 24-3) then fought back and made game of it- they’re 7-2 as road dog under Fisher, 5-2 vs spread coming off a loss. Cowboys are 4-17 as home favorites under Garrett, 3-10 vs non-divisional foes, 10-13-1 coming off loss. First two Dallas games were decided by total of six points; Cowboys ran ball 39 times for only 124 yards (3.2/carry) in first two games despite OL coach Callahan calling plays. Improvement in Ram offense is obvious, with five TD drives of 80+ yards already, but none of less than 80, so defense/special teams have to step up and make life easier. This will be as close to a home game as Bradford gets in NFL; he averaged 7.9/6.4 per pass attempt in first two games, without getting sacked. From 1973-80, these teams met six times in eight years, just in playoff games.

Cardinals (1-1) @ Saints (2-0)—New Orleans escaped by skin of teeth two weeks in row but was much better on offense in home opener, averaging 9.2 yards per pass attempt, compared to 5.9 in rain-delayed road opener last week. Payton covered last nine games as Superdome favorite (they were 3-3 LY, when Payton was suspended); since ’08, Saints are 16-5-1 vs spread as non-divisional home favorites. Arizona fought back from down 21-10 to win home opener last week, throwing for 261 yards, even with Fitzgerald hampered by leg injury; they’re 9-6-1 in last 16 games as road underdog, but over last 10+ years, Arizona is just 23-36-1 vs spread coming off a win. Teams haven’t met since 2010; Cardinals lost five of last six visits here, last of which was 45-14 loss in ’09 playoff game, Kurt Warner’s last NFL game, and Redbirds’ last playoff game. Cardinals’ last win on Bourbon Street was in 1996.

Lions (1-1) @ Redskins (0-2)— Desperate times for Washington team that was outscored 50-7 in first half of first two games; they’ve already allowed nine offensive TDs, four on drives of less than 50 yards. Debate rages whether RGIII is hurt or if his knee brace is hindering him; they’ve outscored foes 40-21 in second half, but cow was out of barn in both games by then. Defense allowed 402 rushing yards in first two games; since ’06, Washington is 8-18-1 as a home favorite. Detroit is 5-10-1 in game following its last 16 losses, 10-13-2 as road dog under Schwartz, First outdoor game for Lion squad that blew 21-10 lead on road last week, wasting a defensive TD; Detroit has twice as many penalty yards (189-92) as its opponents; Home teams won 11 of last 13 series games; Lions lost their last 20 visits here; last time this franchise beat Redskins on road was in 1935, when Skins were based in Boston. Oy.

Packers (1-1) @ Bengals (1-1)—Short week for Cincy after beating rival Steelers Monday, just their second home win in last dozen tries vs Pitt; in comes Green Bay with much more potent offense than Steelers- Rodgers passed for 480 yards last week, had 322 at halftime- they averaged 8.3/9.6 yards/pass attempt in first two games. Bengals lead seldom-played series 6-5; Pack lost three of four visits here, with only win in 1998. Since ’10, Bengals are just 12-13 SU at home; they’re 15-8-1 in last 24 games where spread was 3 or less points, 13-6-2 vs NFC teams and 16-6 in game following their last 22 wins. Under McCarthy, Green Bay is 22-14-2 in games where spread was 3 or less, 17-7 in last 24 games vs AFC and 15-10 in game following their last 25 wins. This season, AFC teams are off to 5-1 start vs NFC. Packers ended 2.5-year streak last week of not having a 100-yard runner in any game when Starks broke century mark vs Redskins.

Giants (0-2) @ Panthers (0-2)— Two desperate teams battle for first win here. Giants allowed 77 points in first two games, turning ball over ten times (-8); its tough for an immobile QB when his OL isn’t very good, and injuries have damaged Giants’ OL. Big Blue has already allowed two defensive scores and a TD on a punt return. Since 2006, Giants are 14-7-1 vs spread as road underdog of 3 or less points. Panthers are 8-17 SU in last 25 home games, 4-4 as home favorite under Rivera; Carolina lost its first two games by total of six points, allowing Buffalo’s rookie QB to drive 80 yards in last minute last week to win game on final play. Teams split eight series games, with five of last six meetings decided by 13+ points with average total in last four, 51.0; Giants (+2.5) waxed Carolina here 36-7 in Week 3 LY, thanks to a +5 turnover margin. Thru two games this year, Giants have run ball only 33 times for 73 yards (2.2/carry) and dropped back to pass 95 times.

Falcons (1-1) @ Dolphins (2-0)—Miami starts season with pair of road wins; they didn’t have penalty in win at Indy last week. Fish outscored first two opponents 24-6 in second half after not leading either game at halftime. Dolphins are just 2-8 in last ten home openers, failing to cover last three tries as a favorite in HO’s. Under Smith, Falcons are 23-10-2 in games where spread was 3 or less points; Miami is 6-3 under Philbin in those type games. Atlanta dropped back to pass 86 times in first two games, with only 30 runs and now new RB Jackson is hurt already- they’ve won three of last four games with Miami, after losing six of first seven; they’re 2-5 in south Florida, with last visit in ’05. Average total in last three meetings was 29.3. Falcons are 21-11 vs spread in last 32 games on grass. Over is 8-3 in Miami’s last 11 home openers, with last four going over the total. Falcons are a better team than either club Miami beat so far, but enthusiasm is high for the Dolphins.

Colts (1-1) @ 49ers (1-1)—Coach Harbaugh faces team he once led to playoffs as its QB; 49ers got drilled 29-3 in Seattle last week- since ’09, Niners are 17-5-3 in game following a loss, 5-1-1 under Harbaugh. 23 penalties for 206 yards in two games is red flag for SF, Luck returns to Bay Area with Indy squad that lost last three road openers, by 10-27-20 points; Indy is 1-10-1 vs spread last 12 times they were a dog in a road opener. Colts are 13-25 on 3rd down in two games, with only six total penalties; they’ve won last two games in this seldom-played series that was divisional rivalry in late 60’s. Indy lost four of last five visits here, winning 28-3 in ’05. Indy is 16-11-1 vs spread in last 28 games on grass, 11-6 in last 17 games as non-divisional road dog, 4-2 in last six as double digit dog. 49ers played Pack/Seattle to open season, so this is actually step down in class for them; SF is 9-1 as non-divisional HF under Harbaugh, 4-3 as double digit favorite.

**Udog** · 09-21-2013, 09:48 PM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 3

Sunday's Games

Jaguars (0-2) @ Seahawks (2-0)—Major letdown spot for 20-point home favorites, after blasting rival 49ers last week, and with road trip to Houston on tap; Jax head coach Bradley was Seattle’s DC last few years and being non-conference game, there would be no reason for Carroll to bury Jags late, if it comes to that. But Jax is off to awful start, scoring one TD on first 24 drives, with 14 3/outs, averaging 2.3/5.0 yards/pass attempt; they’ve been outrushed 341-105, outscored 31-5 in first half, outsacked 11-4. Seattle’s defense allowed one TD on first 18 drives, forcing six 3/outs; Seahawks are 8-3 as home favorites under Carroll; over last decade, they’re 7-3-1 as double digit favorites. Jaguars have been double digit dog in six of last 29 games, going 5-1 vs spread. Seattle won four of six games in this seldom-played series; Jags lost both visits here, 24-15/41-0. Seattle has seven takeaways in first two games (+5); their defense is very good. Still hard to lay 20 in an NFL game.

Bills (1-1) @ Jets (1-1)—Two rookie QBs in series where Ryan is 6-2 vs Buffalo, 5-12 vs rest of division; five of last six series games were decided by 16+ points; Bills lost last three visits here by 31-4-20 points, with average total in those games 57.7; this is first road start for Manuel, who led game-winning, 80-yard drive in last minute vs Carolina last week. Bills ran ball well in first two games, averaging 142.5 ypg; Jets held Bucs/Pats to average of 59.5 ypg, so good matchup there. Gang Green is 16-10 vs spread under Ryan in games with spread of 3 or less points but since ’06, they’re just 6-14-1 in divisional home games. Bills had 8 and 15-yard deficits in field position in first two games. Jets split pair of games decided by total of four points; Bills split their pair, with games decided by total of three points. Bills lost seven of last nine road openers SU, but covered seven of last eleven. Last two years, Buffalo was 4-9-1 as a road underdog.

Bears (2-0) @ Steelers (0-2)— Not sure what to make of Chicago after winning first two home games by total of four points; they won last week 31-30, despite giving up TDs on both offense/special teams. Since ’08, Bears are 9-4-1 as road favorites; they’re 6-4-3 vs AFC teams; 1-5-1 in last seven games where spread was three or less points. Short week for Pitt after Monday night loss in Cincy; in first two games they’ve run ball 31 times for only 76 yards, converted 7 of 25 on third down, been outsacked 7-1. Over last decade, Steelers are 5-0 vs spread as home dogs, covering one game as home dog in each of last three years, but this is also first Tomlin team to be two games under .500 at any point of season. Pitt won three of last four series meetings, with average total in last three, 30.0; Bears are 1-6-1 in last eight visits here, with only win in ’89. Chicago is 2-4 in last six road openers, with eight of their last nine AOs staying under the total.

Monday's Game

Raiders (1-1) @ Broncos (2-0)—Over last seven years, Oakland is amazing 18-3 vs spread as a divisional road underdog, but they’ve lost last three games vs Denver by 14-31-13 points. Broncos appear to be offensive juggernaut, scoring 90 points in first two games (11 TDs, two FGA on first 26 drives), with four drives of 40 or less yards plus a PR for TD. Raiders won four of last five visits here, with wins before Manning came to town (they lost 37-6 here LY). Raiders split pair of close games this year without getting a takeaway; they’ve run ball for 171-221 yards in first two games, with Pryor’s mobility a key factor. Bronco defense allowed only 58-23 rushing yards in first two games, and they’re still missing some key pieces- Denver is 3-1 as double digit favorite under Fox, after being 2-12-1 in that role in eight years before he became HC. From 2006-11, Broncos were 5-24-2 as Mile High favorites; they’re 7-1 in that role since #18 became their QB.

**Udog** · 09-21-2013, 10:08 PM

NFL

Sunday, September 22

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Packers at Bengals: What bettors need to know
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Green Bay Packers at Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5, 49.5)

The Cincinnati Bengals feel that Monday night's win over rival Pittsburgh signaled a changing of the guard in the AFC North. No longer the Steelers' patsies, Cincinnati now battles one of the NFC's powers when it hosts Green Bay on Sunday afternoon. The Bengals may still have concerns at quarterback but their backfield tandem of BenJarvus Green-Ellis and rookie Giovani Bernard certainly delivered on Monday.

It's no secret what Green Bay's top-ranked offense brings to battle. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers was masterful picking apart the Washington secondary a week ago. Rodgers, who has won eight of his past 10 starts against AFC teams, racked up a career-high 480 yards through the air despite hardly throwing a pass in the fourth quarter and he could find plenty of room against an injury-riddled Cincinnati defense.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Packers -3. O/U: 48.5.

LINE: The Bengals opened +1 and are currently +2.5. The total opened at 48 and is now 49.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-60s and wind will blow across the field at 6 mph.

ABOUT THE PACKERS (1-1): Green Bay raced out to a 31-0 lead and cruised to the lopsided win over Washington. While Rodgers' performance was typical, the Packers got a surprising 132-yard effort on the ground from running back James Starks, who replaced Eddie Lacy after the rookie left the game with a concussion. Starks became the first back in the past 45 Packer games to go over the century mark and he'll likely get the call again as second-round pick Lacy has yet to be medically cleared.

ABOUT THE BENGALS (1-1): Bernard looked explosive in catching one scoring pass and running for another TD in the Bengals' 20-10 win over the Steelers. Cincinnati has won the past two meetings against Green Bay and sacked Rodgers six times in its most recent game (2009) but it will be without veteran defensive end Robert Geathers who joined three Bengal linebackers on injured reserve. While questions still abound on Andy Dalton's deep passing ability, he has thrown for 280 and 282 yards in his first two starts and unveiled a new weapon in athletic rookie tight end Tyler Eifert on Monday.

TRENDS:

* Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.
* Bengals are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games in Week 3.
* Over is 5-1 in Packers last six games overall.
* Under is 9-1 in Bengals last 10 games following a ATS win.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Packers were forced to juggle their secondary last week after three DBs suffered hamstring injuries. All are questionable for Sunday.

2. Green Bay ranks 30th in passing defense, yielding an average of 359 yards.

3. The Bengals were just 4-4 at home last season.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 3 (Thursday, September 19 - Monday, September 23)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 3 (Thursday, September 19 - Monday, September 23)

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment