NFL Week 2

[roccodean]

good luck

1*: .66-.75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units

Line listed is the consensus line when game is posted, and these will be what I use for my record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.

All rankings are based on yards/rush and yards/pass attempt-this is more accurate than total yards.

More plays to follow-please check back

1* NYJ +12 over NE
I am going to make this simple. The Pats shouldn't be double digit favorites against the Youngstown State Penguins. You can't lose your top 5 recievers and continue to be dominant. The Public thinks they will continue to be good because of Brady and Bellichick but I think this is the year they fell off. It is going to take about 5 weeks until he public jumps off their bandwagon (and hence we lose line value) so we have to fade them now. As you can see in the Pit/Cinci line the oddsmakers have already adjusted for how bad Pit is going to be, but they haven't adjusted NE yet. NE should have lost to Buff and only managed 4.7 YPP. The Jets beat TB last weeks, but they will be bad this year. But, their D looked strong only allowing 4.2 YPP. I think their D will keep them in it and they will be able to cover the big number. There is a 78-34 ATS trend against NE based on this high line and their poor performance last week.

[wayne1218]

rocco, I have a really tough time gauging N.E. on the 1st meeting with Buffalo. They have met Buffalo in week 1 three times in the last 11 years. They won by 1 at Home and went (10-6) that season, losing in the Playoffs. They won by 2 at Home one year and went (12-4) that season and lost in the AFC Title game. The 1 time in that span that they started the season in Buffalo, they lost 31-0. They went (14-2) that year and Won the SB. I have learned 2 things with this team over the years, don't base anything on their meetings with Buffalo and as long as Brady is healthy, they will win. If you look at that team that opened the year losing 31-0 @ Buffalo, you would be shocked at how ugly their team looked at the skill positions. They had NOBODY and still Won the SB.

I know I am a N.E. fan but i'm sorry, I just don't see it. Not with Brady there. I can promise you he will find a way to win and he will do it with veterans or with rookies at the WR spot. It doesn't matter. Vegas isn't stupid and they had their win total at 11.5 this season for a reason. JMO

[wayne1218]

Now I don't know what they do tomorrow. My opinion is just based on your thoughts for their season. GL with the play!

[roccodean]

Now I don't know what they do tomorrow. My opinion is just based on your thoughts for their season. GL with the play!

Appreciate your input Wayne. I have a bet on NE's under season win total as well. Every year they outplay their advanced stats (bc of their hi 3rd down eff rate and redzone effic), but I feel they have reached their tipping point. We will see. Good luck whoever you back.

[IMALLABOUTMONEY]

good luck

1*: .66-.75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units

Line listed is the consensus line when game is posted, and these will be what I use for my record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.

All rankings are based on yards/rush and yards/pass attempt-this is more accurate than total yards.

More plays to follow-please check back

1* NYJ +12 over NE
I am going to make this simple. The Pats shouldn't be double digit favorites against the Youngstown State Penguins. You can't lose your top 5 recievers and continue to be dominant. The Public thinks they will continue to be good because of Brady and Bellichick but I think this is the year they fell off. It is going to take about 5 weeks until he public jumps off their bandwagon (and hence we lose line value) so we have to fade them now. As you can see in the Pit/Cinci line the oddsmakers have already adjusted for how bad Pit is going to be, but they haven't adjusted NE yet. NE should have lost to Buff and only managed 4.7 YPP. The Jets beat TB last weeks, but they will be bad this year. But, their D looked strong only allowing 4.2 YPP. I think their D will keep them in it and they will be able to cover the big number. There is a 78-34 ATS trend against NE based on this high line and their poor performance last week.

Couldnt agree more but I think that game will be decided on the interceptions NE grabs from an inexperienced QB playing in NEW ENGLAND. GLLLLLLLLL

[roccodean]

Couldnt agree more but I think that game will be decided on the interceptions NE grabs from an inexperienced QB playing in NEW ENGLAND. GLLLLLLLLL

def concerns me

[Spark]

Good Luck rocco

[jcindaville]

GL Rocco

[BigWeiner]

I agree on your logic with the Pats, they are definitely over-rated, but I think the Jets are terrible, and Geno isn't close to ready. The rest of the team will compete. I see a low scoring gross game. Really like Cincy against Pitt, two teams in opposite directions.

[Kaptain]

gl tonight

[wayne1218]

Great call rocco. You were right on!

[jcindaville]

Thanks Rocco!

[roccodean]

Great call rocco. You were right on!

Thanks wayne.

[roccodean]

2* NYG +4.5 over Denver
No team is ever as good (or bad) as they looked in the previous week. Denver looked great week 1 and that's why this line is where it is (too high). Their offense looked great (7.5 YPP), but their D did look spotty at time. I think the G Men will expose them even more this week. Despite losing to Dallas the Giants outplayed them (by a lot). They were +3.6 in YPP which should equate (historically) to a 20+ point win, but hey were -5 in turnovers. These turnovers won't last and I expect a bounce back week for the G-Men. My calculated line is Denv-2.5 so the value definitely lies on the Giants crossing the key number of 3. I would put a small percent of your wager on the money line as well.

[roccodean]

1* Miami +3 over Indy
If you follow me you know I am low on Indy. They did nothing to disprove my theory last week. They should have lost to OAK, but they were a lucky +2 in TO ratio. Remember, TO's are the key in NFL. The team with less TO's cover 77% of the time. Indy allowed 5.9 YPP to the Raiders and only managed 5.2 YPP. Although they were playing the Browns, Miami's D looked good. Their offense did not look strong (4.2 YPP) but against Indy's D they will be fine. I have a 122-71 ATS trend favoring the Phins. My calculated line is Mia +1.5 so there is some value on the Phins.