NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Week 3 (Thursday, September 12 - Saturday, September 14)

[Udog]

NCAAF

Saturday, September 14

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Alabama at Texas A&M: What bettors need to know
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Alabama Crimson Tide at Texas A&M Aggies (+7.5, 60)

The two-time defending national champions take on the Heisman Trophy quarterback who nearly derailed their title defense a year ago when top-ranked Alabama travels to No. 6 Texas A&M for a Southeastern Conference showdown Saturday afternoon. Star quarterback Johnny Manziel and the Aggies put their nation-best eight-game winning streak on the line against Alabama's vaunted defense in one of the most-anticipated matchups of the season. Last year in Tuscaloosa, Ala., Manziel's Heisman campaign hit high gear when he orchestrated a 29-24 upset of the undefeated Crimson Tide.

Coach Nick Saban has had two weeks to prepare for Manziel and the Aggies' high-powered offense, as the Crimson Tide had a week off following a 35-10 win over Virginia Tech in the opener. Alabama hasn't lost a road or neutral-site game since Nov. 6, 2010, a span of 15 games - the longest active streak in the nation. It's the first trip to College Station, Texas, for the Crimson Tide since a 30-10 victory in 1988.

TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the low 90s with partly cloudy skies and a 10 percent chance of rain. Winds blowing ENE at 6 mph.

LINE: Alabama opened as a 6-point favorite and was bet up as high as -9.5 before coming down to -7.5. Total opened at 56 and was bet up as high as 63 before coming down to 60 points.

ABOUT ALABAMA (1-0, 1-0 ATS): The Crimson Tide were dominant on defense and special teams against the Hokies but experienced the growing pains associated with an inexperienced offensive line. Three of Alabama's five touchdowns in the opener were produced by the defense and special teams, and Christion Jones accounted for three of the scores with a 74-yard punt return, a 93-yard kickoff return and a 39-yard touchdown catch. The non-traditional scores helped mask a lackluster offensive effort, as Alabama managed only 206 total yards.

ABOUT TEXAS A&M (2-0, 1-1 ATS): Coach Kevin Sumlin's team continues to put up huge offensive numbers, averaging 58.5 points and 600 yards through two games, but the defense has been susceptible even against inferior opponents. After being suspended for the first half of the opener against Rice, Manziel came off the bench to throw three touchdown passes, and he rolled up 462 total yards and four scores (three passing) last week against Sam Houston State. The Aggies might need more eye-popping numbers from Manziel this week, as the defense has surrendered 29.5 points and 449.5 yards per contest.

TRENDS:

* Crimson Tide are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 road games.
* Aggies are 4-0 ATS in their last four conference games.
* Alabama head coach Nick Saban is 32-17 SU and ATS in revenge spots during his college career – including 11-0 SU and 8-3 ATS when favored by more than seven points.
* Texas A&M head coach Kevin Sumlin is 0-6 ATS in his career against .666 or greater foes with revenge.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Since the start of the 2008 season, Alabama is 41-0 when it has fewer turnovers than its opponent and 51-0 when rushing for at least 140 yards.

2. Texas A&M is 1-4 all-time at home against top-ranked teams. Alabama is the first No. 1 team to visit College Station since the Aggies upset Oklahoma 30-26 in 2002.

3. The Aggies have surpassed 400 total yards in 14 consecutive games. Alabama has not allowed an opponent to reach 400 yards since Texas A&M did so last season.


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[Udog]

Where the action is: Saturday's NCAAF line moves

By the way Week 3 of the college football season is revving up, you’d think Alabama at Texas A&M is the only game on the board.

While the media blitzes the bad blood in the SEC, bettors are voicing their opinions at the sportsbooks and have plenty of lines on the move. We talk to sportsbooks about the biggest adjustments heading into the weekend:

Louisville Cardinals at Kentucky Wildcats – Open: +10, Move: +16

This Blue Grass rivalry doesn’t hold the same weight on the gridiron as it does on the hardwood. Bettors have piled on the Cardinals and Heisman hopeful Teddy Bridgewater, driving the spread up as many as six points.

“This is biggest decision for Saturday’s college football, as the Cards are getting 91 percent of the cash,” Mike Perry of Sportsbook.com tells Covers.

Maryland Terrapins at UConn Huskies – Open: +8, Move: +6

Action on the home side has moved this spread past the key number at most books. Maryland has overwhelmed weaker competition in the first two weeks, outscoring opponents 71-13. UConn had a bye week to prepare for the Terps and wash the taste of a 33-18 Week 1 loss to FCS Towson out of its mouth.

“A juiced opener has been moved off the key number to 6.5. However, there’s been a lot of action on Maryland -6.5 since the move,” Aron Black of Bet365.com tells Covers.

Stanford Cardinal at Army Black Knights – Open: +27.5, Move: +31

The Cardinal continue to be a popular spread pick in their second game of the season. Stanford, ranked No. 4 in the land, will be up against the always-tricky Army spread attack, which was tops in the FBS last season. According to Sportsbook.com, 89 percent of the action is on Stanford.

Washington Huskies vs. Illinois Fighting Illini – Open: 62, Move: 63, Move: 62

The total for this Pac-12 versus Big Ten showdown at Soldier Field has been dancing all week with the sharp and public money on opposite sides. The Huskies blew out Boise State 38-6 in their opener while Illinois is coming off an upset over Cincinnati, winning 45-17 in Week 2.

“There is a sharp versus public split on the total with sharps playing Under 63.5 and 62.5, and the public going Over at any price,” an oddsmaker for BetDSI.com tells Covers.

UCLA Bruins at Nebraska Cornhuskers – Open: -4.5, Move: -3.5

Another Pac-12 versus Big Ten game has taken one-way action on the road team, moving the Bruins to near field-goal underdogs in Lincoln and it may not stop there.

“UCLA has been a popular dog and has moved down to 3.5 and is still getting played,” says Black. “We might go off juiced +3.”

UTEP Miners at New Mexico State Aggies – Open: +7, Move: +4.5

Sharp money has its fingerprints all over this small-conference matchup, pushing the home underdog down 2.5 points at some books and moving the total as many as 2.5 points as well.

“Seeing both public and sharps hitting the Over,” says BetDSI.com. “Sharp money is at Over 54.5 and 55.5. The line is now up to 57.”

Fresno State Bulldogs at Colorado Buffaloes – Open: +10, Move: +7.5

Wiseguys are getting down on Colorado, with Fresno State coming to the thin air of Folsom Field in Week 3. The Buffaloes have revenge on their minds as well after getting smacked 69-14 by FSU last September.

“The most popular underdog with sharps is Colorado,” says Perry. “Fresno State opened -10 and wiseguy money on the Buffs has caused the number to go to -8. Sixty-two percent of the action is on Colorado.”

UL Monroe Warhawks at Wake Forest Demon Deacons - Open: 53.5, Move: 50.5

After being shutout by Oklahoma, the Warhawks put 48 points up against FCS Grambling State in Week 2. Wake Forest has had a tough time scoring to start the year, managing only 10 points in a loss to Boston College. That's enough to have this total trending downward as we head toward the weekend.

"Sharps pushing the under value from 54 and 53, and now down to 50.5," says BetDSI.com.

[Udog]

Essential betting tidbits for Week 3 of college football

We dug up these vital betting tidbits for Saturday's early college football action that will help you make the right call before kickoff.

-Some big line moves for the 12 p.m. ET games as of late Friday morning: Tulsa-Oklahoma -27 to -24.5, Stanford-Army +27.5 to +30, UCLA -Nebraska -7.5 to -3.5, Georgia State-West Virginia -37 to -40, Louisville-Kentucky +10 to +14, Akron-Michigan -35.5 to 37.

-More special teams gaffes from Tulsa last week. Fumble on a punt return, two missed field goals from short range (a problem going back to last season), and a punt return TD against. This has become a key betting factor for Tulsa games. +24.5 at Oklahoma.

-Virginia Tech easily beat FCS Western Carolina last week but QB Logan Thomas had 5 pass progression errors in the game. Not good considering Thomas, who loves to run, has had his had his running plays limited this season. -7.5 at ECU

-Blake Bell will start at QB in place of the injured Trevor Knight. This could actually be a good thing for the Sooners after Knight struggled with passing accuracy against West Virginia (10-of-20).

-The average weight of Stanford's offensive line outweighs Army's defensive line by 70 pounds. The defensive line outweighs the Black Knights' O-line by 40 pounds on average. Stanford +30 at Army.

-Stanford has 25 straight games with at least one takeway, longest streak in the nation.

-Keep in mind it could feel like 9 a.m. (Pacific Time) to the Cardinal when they play Army Saturday at noon ET at West Point.

-Seven players on Nebraska's front seven have made their college debuts over the past two weeks. They're in tough against a UCLA team that put up 653 yards on the Huskers last year. Nebraska -3.5

-UCLA has the No. 3 offense in the country so far with 647 yards per game.

-Kentucky freshman wide receiver Ryan Timmons told Kentucky.com he expects a high-scoring game against Louisville on Saturday. The total was at 60 late Friday afternoon.

-Brady Hoke has doughnuts coming for the first 5,000 students to go to the game vs. Akron on Saturday. He calls noon games "doughnut games" because he used to buy a doughnut before he played football at that time as a youth player. He says the Wolverines love these games. Michigan is -37.

-Bowling Green is one of 18 FBS teams who have started the year at 2-0 ATS. +3 at Indiana.

-You might want to look at first half wagers for Oregon this season. "Oregon has an FBS-high 60 TD drives that lasted 2 minutes or less since the start of last season. 40 of those 60 came in the first half" according to ESPN's stats & info.