NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 1 (Thursday, September 5 - Monday, September 9)

[Udog]

NFL Trends and Indexes

Thursday,September 5 - Monday, September 9

Additional trends and information will be added as available.

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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[Udog]

NFL odds: Week 1 opening line report

The NFL Week 1 odds are about as fresh as your gym bag, having been on the board since the middle of summer.

While these spreads and totals have taken action over the past few months, the majority of money is still to come. We talk to oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com about some of the more intriguing opening NFL odds, line adjustments and where these numbers could close come kickoff.

Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos – Open: -9, Move: -9.5, Move: -7.5

The Thursday night opener has been up and down over the summer, with the latest wave of action coming in on the Ravens following Broncos LB Von Miller’s suspension and injuries to the Denver offensive line.

“On Sunday, we moved the line in Baltimore’s favor again to +7.5 as 70 percent of current action on the spread is backing the Super Bowl champs,” Mike Perry of Sportsbook.com tells Covers. “I think this line stays at -7.5 until kickoff on Thursday. Seven is too important a number and we don’t want to get middled by people who could buy off this number.”

Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers – Open: +3, Move: +2.5, Move: +4

The Seahawks were the sexy offseason pick after a brilliant 2012 effort. Carolina, however, turned heads down the home stretch of the season, going 5-1 SU and ATS in the final six games.

Early action saw sharp money take Seattle but some books dropped this spread with money on the Panthers at home. Perry says this could end up being the biggest decision for the books in Week 1, with 86 percent of money siding with the Seahawks.

“We moved the line to -4 Sunday, as we are exposed so much on Seattle,” he says. “This line should stay at -4, until Sunday morning, where I could see us going to -4.5 to try and get some money on the Panthers.”

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers – Open: -5, Move: -4.5, Move: -4

Up until last season, when New England trounced Tennessee in Week 1, the Super Bowl loser had failed to cover the spread in their opener in 12 straight seasons. Action has sided with San Francisco for this playoff rematch with the Packers, including early sharp money. According to Perry, nearly 70 percent of handle is on the 49ers.

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys – Open: -3, Move: -2.5, Move: -3

This Sunday Night Football grudge match has hovered around a field goal most of the summer. According to Perry, about 60 percent of the action is on the Cowboys at home. Dallas won the season opener in New York last season but went a dismal 1-7 ATS as a host in 2012.

“When talking NFL spreads, the three is stronger than Matt Cushman’s word - played by Beau Bridges in Jerry Maguire. Cushman’s word was stronger than oak,” jokes Perry. “I will tell you that we won’t move off -3 until game time. Oh yeah, Cushman lied."

[Udog]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 1

Baltimore at Denver
The Broncos are seeking revenge from last years playoff loss to the Ravens and look to build on their 4-0 ATS record in their last 4 Thursday games. Denver is the pick (-8) according to Dunkel, which has the Broncos favored by 11. Dunkel Pick: Denver (-8). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 5

Game 451-452: Baltimore at Denver (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 131.325; Denver 142.477
Dunkel Line: Denver by 11; 44
Vegas Line: Denver by 8; 48
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-8); Under


SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 8

Game 453-454: New England at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 138.298; Buffalo 131.258
Dunkel Line: New England by 7; 54
Vegas Line: New England by 10 1/2; 50
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+10 1/2); Over

Game 455-456: Tennessee at Pittsburgh (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 122.529; Pittsburgh 135.053
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 12 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 7; 42
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-7); Over

Game 457-458: Atlanta at New Orleans (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 135.997; New Orleans 136.658
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 1; 50
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 3; 54
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+3); Under

Game 459-460: Tampa Bay at NY Jets (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 128.977; NY Jets 122.921
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 6; 42
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay by 3; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-3); Over

Game 461-462: Kansas City at Jacksonville (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 116.824; Jacksonville 125.182
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 8 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 3 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+3 1/2); Under

Game 463-464: Cincinnati at Chicago (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 136.753; Chicago 132.177
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 4; 38
Vegas Line: Chicago by 3; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+3); Under

Game 465-466: Miami at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 129.760; Cleveland 132.640
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 3; 44
Vegas Line: Cleveland by 1; 41
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-1); Over

Game 467-468: Seattle at Carolina (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 145.320; Carolina 139.276
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 6; 42
Vegas Line: Seattle by 3; 45
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-3); Under

Game 469-470: Minnesota at Detroit (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 139.523; Detroit 127.632
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 12; 50
Vegas Line: Detroit by 4 1/2; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+4 1/2); Over

Game 471-472: Oakland at Indianapolis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 124.852; Indianapolis 136.150
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 11 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 9 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-9 1/2); Under

Game 473-474: Arizona at St. Louis (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 124.599; St. Louis 126.510
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 2; 44
Vegas Line: St. Louis by 4 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+4 1/2); Over

Game 475-476: Green Bay at San Francisco (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 137.355; San Francisco 145.495
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 8; 45
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 4 1/2; 49
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-4 1/2); Under

Game 477-478: NY Giants at Dallas (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 135.438; Dallas 133.983
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 1 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Dallas by 3; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+3); Over


MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 9

Game 479-480: Philadelphia at Washington (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 130.142; Washington 131.203
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 54
Vegas Line: Washington by 4; 51
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+4); Over

Game 481-482: Houston at San Diego (10:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 133.892; San Diego 128.357
Dunkel Line: Houston by 5 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: Houston by 3 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-3 1/2); Under

[Udog]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 1

Thursday, September 5

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BALTIMORE (14 - 6) at DENVER (13 - 4) - 9/5/2013, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 1-1 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 1-1 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, September 8

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NEW ENGLAND (13 - 5) at BUFFALO (6 - 10) - 9/8/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 99-69 ATS (+23.1 Units) in road games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 99-69 ATS (+23.1 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 154-113 ATS (+29.7 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 83-59 ATS (+18.1 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 2-2 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 3-1 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TENNESSEE (6 - 10) at PITTSBURGH (8 - 8) - 9/8/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 91-60 ATS (+25.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 46-23 ATS (+20.7 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 1-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 1-1 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (14 - 4) at NEW ORLEANS (7 - 9) - 9/8/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 24-46 ATS (-26.6 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 3-1 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 3-1 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TAMPA BAY (7 - 9) at NY JETS (6 - 10) - 9/8/2013, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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KANSAS CITY (2 - 14) at JACKSONVILLE (2 - 14) - 9/8/2013, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CINCINNATI (10 - 7) at CHICAGO (10 - 6) - 9/8/2013, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MIAMI (7 - 9) at CLEVELAND (5 - 11) - 9/8/2013, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 1-0 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 1-0 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SEATTLE (12 - 6) at CAROLINA (7 - 9) - 9/8/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 1-0 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 1-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (10 - 7) at DETROIT (4 - 12) - 9/8/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 21-41 ATS (-24.1 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 42-64 ATS (-28.4 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 3-0 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 2-2 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OAKLAND (4 - 12) at INDIANAPOLIS (11 - 6) - 9/8/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in dome games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ARIZONA (5 - 11) at ST LOUIS (7 - 8 - 1) - 9/8/2013, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 94-126 ATS (-44.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 2-2 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
ST LOUIS is 2-2 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (12 - 6) at SAN FRANCISCO (13 - 5 - 1) - 9/8/2013, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 151-108 ATS (+32.2 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-0 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-0 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY GIANTS (9 - 7) at DALLAS (8 - 8) - 9/8/2013, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 3-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 3-1 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, September 9

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PHILADELPHIA (4 - 12) at WASHINGTON (10 - 7) - 9/9/2013, 7:10 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 51-81 ATS (-38.1 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 2-2 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 2-2 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (13 - 5) at SAN DIEGO (7 - 9) - 9/9/2013, 10:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 20-3 ATS (+16.7 Units) against AFC South division opponents since 1992.
HOUSTON is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 21-6 ATS (+14.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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[Udog]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 1

Ravens @ Broncos—Baltimore hit 70-yard TD pass in last minute to force OT and stun Broncos here in LY’s playoffs, but Lewis/Reed/Boldin/Pitta are all gone, and Denver (12-1 in last 13 home openers, 9-4 vs spread) has revenge motive for season opener. Broncos will miss suspended LB Miller; they were 6-1 vs spread as HFs LY, after being 5-24-2 from ‘06-’11; addition of Welker at WR should make their offense even better. Ravens covered five of last seven road openers, are 11-6 as regular season road dogs under Harbaugh, which doesn’t include three road covers in LY’s playoffs. First time in decade Super Bowl champs open on road; ’03 Bucs won 17-0 at Philly in similar scenario decade ago. Last ten SB champs are 6-2-2 vs spread in season opener the next year.

Patriots @ Bills—New England is 23-2 in last 25 series games, 8-1 in last nine visits here, with seven of eight wins by 13+ points, but 36-year old Brady is without his top five receivers from LY, so hard to say how their passing attack will fare. Since ’04, NE is 33-20-1 as AF; they’re 17-6-2 in last 25 games as a divisional AF, 5-2 in last seven road openers, 6-3 as favorite in road openers. New coach, new QB for Buffalo, but not sure if it'll be Kolb or rookie Manuel yet. Bills are 3-9-1 in last 13 games as an AFC East home dog, 5-9-1 overall as home dog since 2008. Bills covered four of last five home openers, with four of those five games going over total. Average total in last four series games is 70.8. Over last three seasons, Patriots are +70 in turnovers, Buffalo -31.

Titans @ Steelers—Pittsburgh won its last ten home openers, going 8-2 vs spread, 7-2 as favorites; their last four home openers stayed under total, as have 13 of Titans’ last 16 road openers. Pitt won three of last four games vs Titans, winning by 3-8-21 points. Tennessee lost four of last five visits here, with three of last four losses by 21+ points- they’re 6-6 as road dogs under Munchak, 5-4 in non-divisional games. Since ’06, Titans are 28-19-1 as single digit dogs. Steelers are -23 in turnovers last two years, after being +31 from ’04-’10; they’re going to try and run ball more, to take heat off defense/Big Ben, but OL hasn't looked good in exhibitions. Over last three years, Pitt is 9-6 vs spread in non-divisional home games; they’re 22-22-1 as HFs under Tomlin. Titans lost 16-14/ 38-10 in road openers under Munchak.

Falcons @ Saints—Payton returns to Superdome sidelines after year suspension. Saints are 11-3 in last 14 renewals of this 46-year old rivalry; Falcons lost eight of last nine visits here, with four of eight losses by 8+ points. Saints covered five of last six NFC South home games; they’re 8-4 in last dozen games with spread of 3 or less points, but under Smith, Atlanta is 23-10-2 vs spread in low spread games. Falcons are 8-5 vs spread in last 13 tries as road dog, but just 2-5 in last seven as a divisional road dog- they’ve lost five of last six road openers, with seven of their last nine going under total; Payton is 3-0-1 in last four tries as favorite in HO. 11 of Saints’ last 16 Superdome openers also stayed under, but nine of last 11 series totals were 48+.

Buccaneers @ Jets— Revis returns to old home with former Rutgers coach Schiano; Tampa Bay is 26-47 SU on road since ’04, 6-11-1 vs spread in last 18 games as road favorite. Bucs lost five of last seven road openers, with four of last five going over total. Rex is 3-1 in home openers here; they were 4-13 in last 17 HOs before he became coach. Jets won nine of ten games vs Bucs, winning all six played here, with four of six wins by 15+ points. Jets are 3-2 as home dogs under Ryan, but 8-16 vs spread in last 24 games vs NFC foes. Gang Green is 15-10 under Ryan in games with spread of 3 or less points, 10-7 at home. Not sure how much home field edge Gang Green has if they get off to rough start; two new coordinators, HC with reduced influence, major QB dilemma.

Chiefs @ Jaguars—Two teams breaking in new coaches; Reid is only one of eight new NFL HCs this year who has been HC previously- he’s a good one, winning his last four road openers, but Chiefs are 3-6 in this series, losing four of five visits here, with only win in ’01. This is teams’ first meeting in three years. Since 2007, KC is 1-10-1 vs spread as favorite of 3 or less points- they were 0-5 LY in games with spread of 3 or less, part of reason why coaching change was made- they’re 3-8 in. Bradley was DC in Seattle; since ’07, Jags are 8-18 vs spread as dogs of 3 or less points- they’re 8-16 vs spread in last 24 games as home dog, 3-8 as non-divisional home dog. Over last five years, Chiefs are just 12-28 SU on road- they are 1-2 as road favorites since ’07, favored in only three of last 48 road tilts.

Bengals @ Bears—Edge to Cincy for having same HC/QB/coordinators as LY, while Chicago brought QB guru Trestman in from CFL to mentor star signal caller Cutler. Smith was just 4th coach since 1990 to get canned after winning 10+ games that season- new systems usually take some getting used to. Cincy won four of last five series games; they won four of five visits here, are 13-4-1 vs spread in last 18 games vs NFC opponents. Bengals are 4-10 in last 14 road openers (4-5 as road dog in road openers) with five of last six going over total. Bears won seven of last eight home openers, with over 7-4 in their last 11. Cincy is 10-6-1 vs spread in last 17 games as an underdog. Since ’07, Bears are 12-19-1 as home favorites, 7-13-1 in non-divisional games, but they’re 6-4-2 vs spread in last dozen games vs NFC foes.

Dolphins @ Browns— Not sure what to expect from Browns’ new head coach Chudzinski, but OC Turner is superior coordinator and will improve play of 2nd-year QB Weeden, who is older than most 2nd-year guys, having played six years of minor leaguer baseball. This is 15th season for “new” Browns; they’ve been 1-0 once in previous 14 years, going 1-13 vs spread in home openers, with seven of last ten home openers staying under total. Miami lost eight of last nine road openers, with 14 of last 19 (and last four in row) staying under total- they’ve lost last four games vs Browns, last two by total of four points. Fish lost last three visits here, by 10-1-22 points. Unusually strong stat for Dolphins: since 2003, under a few coaches, they’re 32-16-2 vs spread in non-divisional road games.

Seattle @ Carolina—Seahawk defense will be weakened early in year by 4-game suspensions, but they’re fashionable pick to win NFC and have quality depth; Hawks are 14-5-1 vs spread in non-divisional games last two years, but they’ve also lost last six road openers and failed to cover last eight. Seattle is 14-34 SU on road last six years; they’re 1-4 as road favorites under Carroll, 5-12-1 in last 18 games on grass, 5-12 in last 17 games as a favorite of 3 or less points. Cam Newton gets new OC (Chudzinski left to be Browns’ HC) in former Bama coach Shula, not an upgrade. Panthers are 9-13 as home dog since 2006, 7-13 in last 20 non-divisional home games, 2-7 in last nine home openers (3-10 vs spread in last 13) and 7-6 in last 13 games where spread is 3 or less points. Home team won five of six series games; Seahawks’ 16-12 win here LY was their first in three visits here, in state where Russell Wilson played three of his four college years.

Minnesota @ Detroit—Vikings traded up to get WR Patterson in effort to balance offense by upgrading passing game to take pressure off star RB Peterson. Minnesota is 22-5 in last 27 series games (won 20-13/34-24 LY); home teams won five of last seven in series, as Vikes lost two of last three here after winning seven of eight here before that. Minnesota’s last five series wins are by 7+ points, their last seven series losses are by 7 or less points. Since 2008, Vikings are 3-8 as divisional road underdog; they’ve lost seven of last nine road openers, dropping last three by 5-7-3 points. Detroit is 11-5-1 vs spread in last 17 home openers, with four of last five going over total; Lions are 3-5-2 in last 10 tries as a divisional home favorite- they’re 8-3-4 in last 15 games where spread was 3 or less points, 8-8 as home favorite overall in Schwartz era. Seven of Vikings’ last nine road openers stayed under the total.

Oakland @ Indianapolis—Odd stat on Raiders; they’re 11-23 vs spread in last 35 games as a non-divisional road underdog, 18-2 in last 20 games as a divisional road dog- overall since ’08, they’re 22-17 as road dogs, but covered just four of last 19 games on artificial turf. Colts lost OC Arians to Arizona, brought in Luck’s old OC from Stanford; they’re 11-17 as home favorites since ’08, 3-7 in non-divisional games. Indy won eight of last ten home openers, covering six, but most of that was with Manning under center. Oakland covered four of last five as an underdog in road openers; QB Pryor is making his first road start. Raiders are 8-6 in series, losing last three, with road team winning four of last five meetings; this is Oakland’s first visit to Indy since 2004- they won two of three prior visits. Over is 10-3-1 in last 14 Raider road openers.

Arizona @ St Louis—Cardinals hired Arians as HC, Palmer as QB to upgrade offense that finished last in rushing three of last five years, and gave up 162 sacks last three years (-49); they’re 4-20 SU in last 24 road games, but have won seven of last eight visits here, their former home. Rams upgraded OL and have new WRs, expectations are higher for QB Bradford in Fisher’s second year as HC. St Louis swept Redbirds 17-3/31-17 LY, after losing 10 of previous 11 games in this divisional rivalry. St Louis has no recent successful trends; they’re 9-19 in last 28 games as a home favorite, 2-10 in divisional games; they’ve lost five of last six home openers (1-6-1 as favorite in HO’s), while Arizona won four of last five road openers, covering all five games under previous HC Whisenhunt (now OC in San Diego). Cardinals are 8-6-1 as road dog last two years, but covered just two of last seven as a road dog vs NFC West opponents. Four of last six series totals were 32 or less.

Green Bay @ San Francisco—Last year was first time in decade Super Bowl loser covered its opener the next year. 49ers beat Pack twice LY, 30-22 in opener at Lambeau, then 45-31 in home playoff game, ending 1-13 series skid (five of 13 losses were playoff games) vs Green Bay, which is 6-2 in last eight visits here, with last win back in ’06. Niners are +37 in turnovers in two seasons under Harbaugh; they were -21 the four years before that; they’ve got injury issues (Crabtree/Willis) early this year, and are still looking for decent backup QB behind Kaepernick, with Smith off to KC. SF is 11-3-1 as HF under Harbaugh, 8-1 in non-divisional games- since ’09, they’re 23-7-1 SU at home. Packers won six of last seven road openers; they’re 17-7-1 as road dog under McCarthy, but they’re 4-6 in last ten non-divisional road games. Niners won six of last eight home openers; they’re 8-1-1 vs spread in last ten. Last five series totals were all 49+.

Giants @ Dallas—Cowboys are hideous 3-17 as home favorite under Garrett; they’ve covered only five of last 21 divisional home games, are 5-12-1 in last 18 games where spread was 3 or less points. Enter 73-year old (new DC) Monte Kiffin, whose mission is to upgrade Dallas defense that allowed 34 ppg in losing its last four home games to Giants, who are 8-3 in last 11 games vs Cowboys, with road team winning five of last six meetings. Big Blue covered seven of last ten tries as road underdog, 14 of last 21 divisional road games- they’re 14-7-1 vs spread in last 22 games where spread was 3 or less. Cowboys are 5-2 in last seven home openers, but failed to cover last five, all as favorites. Giants are 7-5 as dogs in road openers, 4-3 in last seven SU; 11 of their last 13 road openers went over total. Giants have some injury issues on OL, potential problem for less-than-mobile QB Manning. Seven of last eight series totals were 45+.

[Udog]

NFL

Week

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Trend Report
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Thursday, September 5

8:30 PM
BALTIMORE vs. DENVER
Baltimore is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Baltimore is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Denver
Denver is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
Denver is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Baltimore


Sunday, September 8

1:00 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. NY JETS
Tampa Bay is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Tampa Bay is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games on the road
NY Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games at home
NY Jets are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay

1:00 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. BUFFALO
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 6 games when playing Buffalo
New England is 18-1 SU in its last 19 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Buffalo's last 15 games when playing at home against New England
Buffalo is 4-8-1 ATS in its last 13 games when playing New England

1:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. NEW ORLEANS
Atlanta is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta
New Orleans is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games

1:00 PM
MIAMI vs. CLEVELAND
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games on the road
Miami is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Cleveland's last 10 games
Cleveland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
CINCINNATI vs. CHICAGO
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Cincinnati's last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 6 games when playing Chicago
Chicago is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
Chicago is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. PITTSBURGH
Tennessee is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
Tennessee is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 6-12 SU in its last 18 games when playing Tennessee
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Tennessee

1:00 PM
SEATTLE vs. CAROLINA
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Carolina
Seattle is 7-15 SU in its last 22 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games
Carolina is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home

1:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. DETROIT
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games on the road
Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games at home
Detroit is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. JACKSONVILLE
Kansas City is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Kansas City is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Jacksonville
Jacksonville is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
OAKLAND vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Oakland is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Oakland is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games
Indianapolis is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games at home

4:25 PM
GREEN BAY vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Green Bay is 12-4-2 ATS in its last 18 games when playing San Francisco
Green Bay is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games when playing San Francisco
San Francisco is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 5 games

4:25 PM
ARIZONA vs. ST. LOUIS
Arizona is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Arizona's last 10 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games

8:30 PM
NY GIANTS vs. DALLAS
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of the NY Giants last 8 games
NY Giants are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Dallas is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Dallas's last 7 games at home


Monday, September 9

7:10 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. WASHINGTON
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Philadelphia's last 10 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Philadelphia's last 12 games when playing on the road against Washington
Washington is 8-15 SU in its last 23 games when playing Philadelphia
Washington is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Philadelphia

10:20 PM
HOUSTON vs. SAN DIEGO
Houston is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Houston is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of San Diego's last 13 games
San Diego is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games at home


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[vinnyvegas]

How last ten defending Super Bowl champs did in their first game the next season; notice the last nine all played their opener at home.........

2003-- Buccaneers W17-0 at Philadelphia, +3

2004-- Patriots W27-24 vs Indianapolis, -3

2005-- Patriots W30-20 vs Oakland -7.5

2006-- Steelers W28-17 vs Miami -1

2007-- Colts W41-10 vs New Orleans -5.5

2008-- Giants W16-7 vs Washington -4.5

2009-- Steelers W13-10 vs Tennessee -6.5

2010-- Saints W14-9 vs Minnesota -5

2011-- Packers W42-34 vs New Orleans -5

2012-- Giants L17-24 vs Dallas -5

2013-- Ravens, +7, 48 at Denver.

[Udog]

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 1

First Post

Thursday, September 5, 2013

Baltimore at Denver, 8:30 ET NBC
Baltimore: 6-1 Over in the first month of the season
Denver: 10-2 ATS as a favorite

[Udog]

NFL

Thursday, September 5

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Game of the Day: Ravens at Broncos
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Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos (-7.5, 48)

The Denver Broncos have had nearly eight months to stew over a stunning season-ending loss in January - one that propelled the Baltimore Ravens on their surprising run to a Super Bowl championship. Denver has a chance to exact some revenge when they host the Ravens on Thursday night in the NFL's season-opening game. Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning had won nine straight against the Ravens, including a 17-point rout a month earlier, before Baltimore's 38-35 double-overtime playoff victory.

Much has changed for both teams since Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco averted a certain defeat with a 70-yard tying touchdown strike to Jacoby Jones with 31 seconds to play in regulation. Baltimore has undergone a dramatic roster overhaul, with future Hall of Famer Ray Lewis sliding into retirement, perennial Pro Bowl safety Ed Reed lost to free agency and the trade of Super Bowl hero Anquan Boldin to San Francisco. Flacco became the league's highest-paid player, while Denver added some key pieces to fortify Manning's offense.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE: The Broncos opened at -9 and were bet up as large as -10.5 at some books. Recent action has been on the Ravens and has dropped the spread to as low as -7 at some markets. The total opened at 49.5 and has been bet down to 48.

WEATHER: There is a 16 percent chance of thunderstorms in Denver with temperatures in the mid 80s and winds blowing south at 5 mph.

ABOUT THE RAVENS (2012: 10-6, tied for first AFC North, 6-9-1 ATS): Flacco's regular-season numbers were ordinary - 3,817 yards with 22 TD passes and 10 interceptions - but he was off the charts in the postseason with 11 scoring passes and zero picks en route to winning Super Bowl MVP honors. Third-year speedster Torrey Smith heads an inexperienced receiving corps that suffered a jolt when starting tight end Dennis Pitta dislocated his hip, putting his season in jeopardy. Ray Rice has rushed for at least 1,143 yards in four straight seasons and leads all NFL backs with 278 receptions during that span, but questions abound on a defense that surrendered nearly five points more per game in 2012 than in the previous season.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (2012: 13-3, first AFC West, 10-6 ATS): Manning guided Denver to the No. 1 seed in the playoffs and 11 consecutive wins to close the regular season after sitting out 2011 due to multiple neck surgeries. Wideouts Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker both went over 1,000 yards and combined for 179 catches and 23 touchdowns and will be joined by reception machine Wes Welker, who had at least 111 catches in five of six seasons with New England. Rookie running back Montee Ball set the FBS record for career touchdowns but will open the season as the backup to Ronnie Hillman. Denver also has a huge void to plug on defense after sack-master Von Miller was suspended six games for violating the league's drug policy.

TRENDS:

* Ravens are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Ravens are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Denver.
* Under is 5-1 in Broncos' last six Thursday games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Manning's 37 TD passes and 4.659 yards last season were both the second-highest totals of his storied career.

2. Baltimore's John Harbaugh is the first coach to win a playoff game in each of his first five seasons.

3. Ravens DE Elvis Dumervil, a three-time Pro Bowler with Denver, wound up signing with Baltimore in March after his signed contract agreement with the Broncos arrived just minutes after the league deadline.


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[Udog]

NFL

Thursday, September 5

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos: Tale of the tape
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The Baltimore Ravens and Denver Broncos kickoff the 2013 NFL schedule Thursday night. We break down each side and let you know which team has the edge with our Tale of Tape for Thursday Night Football.

Offense

Peyton Manning is the biggest offensive weapon on the field Thursday and has added a new WR to his arsenal in former Patriots slotman Wes Welker. He joins downfield threats Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker on an offense that averaged 30.4 points per game.

Denver’s rushing attack is a bit of an unknown heading into Week 1. The Broncos selected Wisconsin TD machine Montee Ball in the draft. He’ll share duties with RB Ronnie Hillman. Without a proven ground game, Baltimore could tee off on Manning with the pass rush.

Baltimore is hoping its heavy investment in QB Joe Flacco pays off. During their improbable run to the Super Bowl, Flacco was at the wheel of an explosive attack that averaged 31 points on 275.5 passing yards a game. Anquan Bolden is no longer in the mix and TE Dennis Pitta is out for the year, but WR Torrey Smith always seems to play well in primetime.

Ray Rice remains the backbone of the Baltimore ground game. The shifty RB rushed for 1,143 yards and is just as dangerous catching the ball. He was a beast versus Denver in the AFC Divisional Round, running up 131 yards and a touchdown.

Edge: Denver


Defense

Linebacker Elvis Dumervil traded hats this offseason, signing with Baltimore after a fax fiasco in Denver. That pickup shifts the defensive edge in this Week 1 matchup drastically, even more so now that Broncos LB Von Miller is suspended for six games.

The Ravens still have a nasty front seven, anchored by LB Terrell Suggs, who was a one-man wrecking crew with two sacks, a forced fumble and 10 tackles versus Denver in the playoffs. Baltimore’s secondary took a step back this offseason due to the loss of veteran S Ed Reed. Even with him, the Ravens surrendered some big numbers during last year’s postseason but were able to outscore their opponents.

The Broncos’ daunting pass rush has been subdued. Denver doesn’t have Dumervil or Miller pressuring the passer, which should allow Flacco plenty of time to pick apart a secondary that has seen better days. Champ Bailey is still an elite CB and gets some help from the addition of Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, however, those two haven’t been at 100 percent all summer.

Edge: Baltimore


Special teams

Nothing gives those long field goals extra pop like the thin Mile-High air. Denver kicker Matt Prater is a threat for three points as soon as the ball crosses the 50-yard line. Broncos kick return specialist Trindon Holliday went for scores on punt and kickoff returns last season but has plagued his squad with costly fumbles. On the other side of the kickoff, Denver budged for a respectable average of 22.1 yards on kickoffs and just 6.2 on punts – lowest in the AFC.

The word is out on speedster Jacoby Jones, who highlighted Super Bowl XLVII with a 108-yard kickoff-return TD. Baltimore ranked tops in the NFL with an average of 27.3 yards per kickoff and added 9.4 yards per punt return. We'll see what the new kickoff rule does to those stats this season. The Ravens were sound on return coverage, giving up 23.2 yards per kickoff and 7.8 yards per punt in 2012.

Kicker Justin Tucker was surefooted in the Super Bowl, making two key FGs in the fourth quarter. He finished sixth in FG conversions, with his three misses coming from between 40-49 yards away. There won’t be any jitters in his boots for the season opener.

Edge: Baltimore


Notable quotable

"The no-huddle offense is a great tool, a great strategy. You obviously have to be in great shape as a football team and your opponent has to be in great shape to keep up with you. But you have to execute quicker, you have to think quicker. You have to be able to operate in that kind of environment, but you force your opponent to do the same. It fits our philosophy." – Ravens head coach John Harbaugh on defending Broncos’ no-huddle in thin Denver air.

“When we're on the field on offense -- I love our fans' excitement -- but if we can just find that controlled noise level. I believe we are going to go for it on some fourth downs this year and maybe not cheering when we're going for it on fourth down – wait and see and if we get it, cheer then. To me, it's a hard thing. These fans have so much enthusiasm, but for a receivers' standpoint, you'd love to have that homefield advantage where you wouldn't have to signal at home.” – Peyton Manning on crowd noise distracting the offense at Sports Authority Field.


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[Udog]

Where the action is: NFL mid-week line moves

The weekend is almost here, which means the first NFL Sunday of the season is drawing closer. We talk to sportsbooks about the betting action on Week 1’s slate of games and where those odds could end up come kickoff.

Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns – Open: Pick: Move: -1

Both these teams are expected to improve on their 2012 marks, however, there can only be one winner in this Week 1 test. This spread has teetered on the pick’em since opening this spring but recent money has made Cleveland a slight home favorite.

“On Sunday, we got wiseguy play on Cleveland at pick’em, so moved to the current number of Browns 1,” Mike Perry of Sportsbook.com tells Covers. “Sixty-eighth percent of the money is back Cleveland.”

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills – Open: +7.5, Move: +9.5, Move: +10.5

Ever since the Bills QBs started dropping like flies, money on the Patriots has pushed this spread up as many as three points at some books. Buffalo will march out rookie passer E.J. Manuel in Week 1 and that’s enough to convince the majority of bettors to like New England.

“The New England Patriots were seeing 82 percent of the action as 9.5-point favorites on the road against the Buffalo Bills (18 percent),” SportsInteraction.com’s Frank Doyle says.

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys – Open: -3, Move: -3.5

Books opened this NFC East grudge match at a field goal but wiseguy money on the home side has forced them to tack on the half-point hook for this Sunday Night Football showdown. According to Sportsbook.com, 65 percent of the action was on the Cowboys at -3. Now, since the adjustment, that lean has been trimmed to 60 percent.

“I didn’t think we would move off three on this game, but on Monday we got sharp action on Dallas, so moved them to -3.5,” says Perry.

Houston Texans at San Diego Chargers – Open: +3, Move: +4, Move: +5.5

The final Monday Night Football game of Week 1 will undoubtedly draw a ton of money from bettors either looking to build on their earlier winnings or chasing their losses from Sunday. Some books have taken one-sided money on the Texans and have this spread as big as Houston -5.5.

“This will be the biggest decision for NFL Week 1 for the book,” says Perry. “On Monday, we moved this from Houston -4 to -5 based on heavy action, not sharp action. Wednesday we moved the game again in Houston’s favor, once again because of heavy action, and that’s where it stands now.”

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers – Open: 50.5, Move: 48.5

Maybe it’s Week 1 rust or bettors buying into the Packers’ new dedication to defense, but this total has been trimmed as many as two points at some markets. However, the Packers and Niners topped the total in both meetings last season.

“You could see this coming,” says Doyle. “In a game that means a ton to both teams and features San Francisco’s defense, this total has dropped from 50 at the open to 48.5 now.”

[Udog]

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 1

Sunday, September 8, 2013

New England at Buffalo, 1:00 ET
New England: 31-16 ATS away with a total of 45.5+ points
Buffalo: 11-3 Over in the first half of the season

Tennesse at Pittsburgh, 1:00 ET
Tennesse: 4-0 Over vs. AFC North opponents
Pittsburgh: 46-23 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points

Atlanta at New Orleans, 1:00 ET
Atlanta: 7-3 Over away with a total of 49.5+ points
New Orleans: 8-1 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less

Tampa Bay at NY Jets, 1:00 ET
Tampa Bay: 7-1 Over vs. non-conference opponents
New York Jets: 2-6 ATS vs. non-conference opponents

Kansas City at Jacksonville, 1:00 ET
Kansas City: 27-13 Under in the first two weeks of the season
Jacksonville: 5-11 ATS as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points

Cincinnati at Chicago, 1:00 ET
Cincinnati: 5-0 ATS as a road underdog of 3 points or less
Chicago: 15-10 Over playing on a grass field

Miami at Cleveland, 1:00 ET
Miami: 7-3 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less
Cleveland: 24-8 Under as a home favorite of 3 points or less

Seattle at Carolina, 1:00 ET
Seattle: 19-7 ATS vs. conference opponents
Carolina: 9-1 Over as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points

Minnesota at Detroit, 1:00 ET
Minnesota: 12-6 ATS with a total of 42.5 to 49 points
Detroit: 21-41 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points

Oakland at Indianapolis, 1:00 ET
Oakland: 25-11 Under away with a total of 45.5+ points
Indianapolis: 8-1 ATS playing in dome stadiums

Arizona at St. Louis, 4:25 ET
Arizona: 5-1 Under as a road underdog of 7 points or less
St Louis: 6-0 ATS vs. division opponents

Green Bay at San Francisco, 4:25 ET
Green Bay: 17-9 Over playing on grass fields
San Francisco: 11-3 ATS in the first half of the season

NY Giants at Dallas, 8:30 ET NBC
NY Giants: 25-9 Under away with a total of 45.5+ points
Dallas: 0-6 ATS as a home favorite


Monday, September 9, 2013

(TC) Philadelphia at Washington, 7:10 ET ESPN
Philadelphia: 0-7 ATS with a line of +3 to -3
Washington: 6-0 ATS vs. division opponents

(TC) Houston at San Diego, 10:20 ET ESPN
Houston: 19-8 ATS vs. conference opponents
San Diego: 5-11 ATS in home games


(TC) = Time Change

[Udog]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 1

Each week, we break down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are three of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 1:

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-3, 54)

Falcons RB Steven Jackson vs. Saints dinged-up defense

Atlanta will waste no time getting their new offensive weapon in the mix, handing off and tossing short to RB Steven Jackson Sunday. Jackson’s smashmouth style will take full advantage of a hobbled Saints defense that is missing key cogs in the linebacker corps.

New Orleans, which is also making a switch to the 3-4 defense under new coordinator Rob Ryan, is without linebackers Jonathan Vilma, Victor Butler and Will Smith, and their backups have been hindered by injuries all offseason. The Saints were dead last in the NFL in rushing defense in 2012, laying down for 147.6 yards per game.

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins (-3.5, 51.5)

Eagles diminutive WRs vs. Redskins strong secondary

The Eagles are coming up short in the wide receiver department in more than one way. Philadelphia, which lost taller WRs Jeremy Maclin and Arrelious Benn this summer, has a serious height disadvantage. The Eagles are left with 5-foot-9 DeSean Jackson, 5-foot-8 Damaris Johnson, and 6-foot Jason Avant as real receiving weapons. Six-foot-3 WR Riley Cooper is better served as a blocker because of his lack of speed.

Washington has tinkered with its secondary after being gashed by the pass last season. The Redskins are hoping FS Brandon Meriweather will be able to go, but even if he can’t Washington should lean on its size advantage in the secondary. Only two Redskins CBs are under six feet – standouts DeAngelo Hall and Josh Wilson.

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5, 48.5)

Giants’ lack of LB coverage vs. Cowboys TE Jason Witten

The Giants know Dallas TE Jason Witten all too well. The future Hall of Famer has long been a thorn in New York’s side and totaled 167 yards on 18 catches the last time he faced the G-Men. That familiarity with Witten won’t help the Giants linebackers, who were exploited in coverage this preseason, watching the Jets and Patriots pick apart their LBs with passes underneath.

On top of that, New York will assign S Ryan Munday to Witten Sunday night, his first Week 1 start and just his fifth overall career start. Fellow S Antrel Rolle told the media Witten won’t catch 18 passes again. Sure, but you can at least pencil him in for seven or eight. That’s more than enough touches to do damage.

[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, September 8

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Sunday's NFL Week 1 betting cheat sheet
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (+9.5, 51)

The Bills are beginning a new era with first-year head coach Doug Marrone and rookie quarterback E.J. Manuel. Manuel underwent knee surgery on Aug. 18 but is ready to go for the season opener, pushing rookie free agent Jeff Tuel back to the bench.

Tom Brady lost most of his receiving corps with Aaron Hernandez in jail, Wes Welker in Denver and Brandon Lloyd off to free agency. The perennial Pro Bowler has a slew of rookies at wide receiver to go along with import Danny Amendola until Rob Gronkowski recovers from back and forearm surgeries.

LINE: Buffalo opened as a 6.5-point home underdog but has been bet up as high as +9.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Patriots (-6.0) + Bills (+6.0) – home field (-3.0) = Bills +9.0
WEATHER: Temperatures in the mid 60s, 29 percent chance of rain, winds NNE 7 mph
TRENDS:

* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Patriots are 19-8-1 ATS in their last 28 meetings.
* Road team is 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings.

Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7, 42)

Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has taken the Steelers to three Super Bowls - winning two - in his nine seasons, but he missed three games to injury in 2012 and starts the year with questions in the receiving corps and running game.

Titans counterpart Jake Locker sat out five games a year ago and has yet to prove he is the answer after being drafted No. 8 overall in 2008. Both teams have major questions on defense - the Steelers allowed nearly 100 points more last season than in 2011 and Tennessee was shredded for an NFL-worst 471 points.

LINE: Pittsburgh opened a 7.5-point favorite and has moved to -7. The total has dropped from 43.5 to 42.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Tennessee (+4.5) + Pittsburgh (-2.0) + home field (-3.0) = Steelers -9.5
WEATHER: Temperatures in mid 70s, 27 percent chance of showers, winds NNW 5 mph
TRENDS:

Over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Pittsburgh.
Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-3, 54)

The Saints have dominated the series in recent years, winning 11 of the past 14 meetings, but they missed the playoffs last year for the first time since 2008. With head coach Sean Payton returning after being suspended last season for his role in the team's bounty scandal, New Orleans hopes to regain its supremacy over the division.

Granted, the Saints handed the Falcons their first loss last year, a 31-27 defeat in Week 10 in New Orleans, and it did little to slow Atlanta on its way to the NFC Championship Game. The Falcons returned the favor in Week 13 in Atlanta, picking off Drew Brees five times in a 23-13 win. Atlanta upgraded its offense by signing running back Steven Jackson and also coaxed tight end Tony Gonzalez back for one more season.

LINE: New Orleans opened as a 2-point favorite and moved to -3. The total has remained steady at 54.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Atlanta (-4.5) - New Orleans (-2.5) + home field (-3.0) = Saints -5
WEATHER: N/A
TRENDS:

* Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings in New Orleans.
* Falcons are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Underdog is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Jets (+3.5, 39.5)

New York coach Rex Ryan looks to exploit a Buccaneers pass defense that allowed an NFL-worst 297.4 yards per game last year with rookie quarterback Geno Smith, who earned the starting nod after Mark Sanchez injured his shoulder during the fourth quarter of a preseason game .

Bucs RB Doug Martin looks for an encore after rushing for an impressive 1,454 yards and 11 rushing touchdowns during his rookie campaign. Greg Schiano's first year with Tampa Bay also saw Josh Freeman throw for a franchise-record 4,065 yards and 27 touchdowns - although nine of his 17 interceptions came in the final three games.

LINE: New York opened as 1.5-point underdogs and moved to +3.5. Total opened at 41.5 and moved to 39.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Tampa Bay (+3.0) - New York (+6.0) + home field (-3.0) = Pick
WEATHER: Temperatures in mid 70s, 15 percent chance of early showers, winds NNW 14 mph
TRENDS:

* Buccaneers are 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Buccaneers are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 road games.
* Under is 4-1 in Jets’ last five games overall.

Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5, 41)

Sunday is the debut of two new head coaches, as Gus Bradley takes over in Jacksonville and Andy Reid guides the Chiefs after a long tenure in Philadelphia. It's the first meeting since 2010, when the Chiefs clobbered the Jaguars 42-20 in Kansas City, avenging a 24-21 loss in Jacksonville a year earlier.

Both did their best to address issues through the draft and free agency and have playoff hopes - however unrealistic they are. Among the key matchups will be Jacksonville's ability to establish the run and take some pressure off quarterback Blaine Gabbert and the Jaguars' ability to slow down Jamaal Charles and force quarterback Alex Smith into third-and-long situations.

LINE: Jacksonville opened as a 1.5-point underdog and has moved to +4.5. The total climbed from 41 to 41.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Kansas City (+2.0) – Jacksonville (+7.5) + home field (-3.0) = Jaguars +2.5
WEATHER: Temperatures in mid 80s, partly cloudy skies, winds East 8 mph
TRENDS:

* Chiefs are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games in Week 1.
* Jaguars are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games in Week 1.
* Under is 4-0 in Jaguars’ last four home games.

Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (+3.5, 44.5)

The Seahawks won their final five regular-season games and even notched a playoff win behind quarterback Russell Wilson and now face high expectations. Carolina finished with a flurry last season with four consecutive wins and the pressure is on third-year quarterback Cam Newton to deliver the franchise’s first playoff spot since 2008.

Carolina coach Ron Rivera needs a winning season in his third year at the helm after going 13-19 over his first two seasons. Mike Shula is the Panthers’ new offensive coordinator after Rob Chudzinski left to become head coach of the Cleveland Browns.

LINE: Carolina opened as a 3.5-point underdog and moved to +4.5. Total opened at 45.5 and moved to 44.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Seattle (-8.0) + Carolina (+1.5) + home field (-3.0) = Panthers +6.5
WEATHER: Temperatures in the high 80s, partly cloudy skies, winds ENE 9 mph
TRENDS:

* Seahawks are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.
* Panthers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games.
* Over is 6-2 in each Panthers and Seahawks’ last eight games overall.

Cincinnati Bengals at Chicago Bears (-3, 41.5)

With a brand new coach and a healthy Cutler on board, the Bears begin the slow climb back to playoff contention. Replacing Lovie Smith is offensive guru Marc Trestman, who is coming off a successful coaching stint with the Montreal Alouettes of the Canadian Football League.

Bengals QB Andy Dalton and the offense faded down the stretch in 2012 and was held to 198 total yards in a first-round playoff loss to the Houston Texans.. The Bengals have won five of their last six on the road against NFC teams and are 4-1 all-time at Chicago.

LINE: Chicago opened as a 3.5-point favorite and has moved to -3. The total opened at 43.5 and moved to 41.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Cincinnati (-1.0) – Chicago (-2.0) + home field (-3.0) = Bears -4
WEATHER: Temperatures in low 70s, partly cloudy skies, winds NE 13 mph
TRENDS:

* Bengals are 1-4 ATS in their last five games in Week 1.
* Under is 7-2 in Bears last nine games in Week 1.
* Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.

Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns (Pick, 41)

This game marks the debut of Browns head coach Rob Chudzinski, who spent the last two years as the Carolina Panthers’ offensive coordinator. Chudzinski and new offensive coordinator Norv Turner could rely heavily on RB Trent Richardson with top WR Josh Gordon suspended for violating the league’s drug policy.

Miami quarterback Ryan Tannehill threw 12 touchdown passes as a rookie, though only three of those scoring aerials were to wide receivers. There will be no excuses for that this season, as the Dolphins signed former Steelers wideout Mike Wallace to generate big plays in the passing game.

LINE: Game opened pick and some books are dealing Cleveland -1.5. The total has moved from 41 to 40.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Miami (+1.5) – Cleveland (+4.0) + home field (-3.0) = Browns -0.5
WEATHER: Temperatures in the low 70s, 25 percent chance of thunderstorms, winds NNE 13 mph
TRENDS:

* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Dolphins are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Browns are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games in Week 1.

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-5, 46.5)

Vikings RB Adrian Peterson has vowed to shatter the single-season rushing mark this season. Minnesota’s offense is still a major question mark. Christian Ponder, who has surpassed 300 yards only twice in 26 starts, may be on a short leash. Minnesota swept the season series a year ago, including a 20-13 victory in Detroit.

Detroit added Reggie Bush to bolster a backfield that's been non-productive for several seasons. Bush's dual-threat presence should take some of the onus off the oft-weary shoulders of quarterback Matthew Stafford, who threw just 20 touchdown passes last season after tossing a career-high 41 in 2011. Detroit enters the season riding an eight-game losing streak.

LINE: Detroit opened as a 3-point favorite and has moved to -5. The total has moved from 47 to 46.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Minnesota (+1.0) – Detroit (+1.0) + home field (-3.0) = Lions -3
WEATHER: N/A
TRENDS:

* Vikings are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
* Underdog is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings.

Oakland Raiders at Indianapolis Colts (-10.5, 47)

The athletic but unproven Terrelle Pryor has reportedly won the Raiders QB competition with Matt Flynn and is poised to establish himself for a squad that ranked 26th in the NFL in scoring last year. Pryor threw for 150 yards and two touchdowns and ran for 49 yards and a score in Week 17 last season in his only career start.

Colts QB Andrew Luck was 7-1 at home in 2012, winning the last six. Seven of the eight home contests were decided by a touchdown or less, giving Luck plenty of time to display his abilities in the clutch. Luck's favorite target again figures to be 13-year standout Reggie Wayne, who amassed 106 catches and 1,355 yards last season.

LINE: Indianapolis opened as a -8.5 favorite and moved to -10.5. The total moved from 49 to 47 points.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Oakland (+8.0) - Indianapolis (+1.0) + home field (-3.0) = Colts -10
WEATHER: N/A
TRENDS:

* Colts are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games.
* Raiders are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall.
* Under is 11-2 in Colts last 13 home games.

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (-4.5, 48.5)

Green Bay fell 45-31 to San Francisco in the NFC divisional round but is in good shape heading into 2013 with QB Aaron Rodgers in his prime and a host of receiving weapons at his disposal. He'll be put to the test in Week 1 against a vaunted 49ers defense that finished second in the league in fewest points against.

The San Francisco offense belongs to quarterback Colin Kaepernick. The Green Bay defense is ready to go after the nimble QB, who racked up 181 rushing yards and two touchdowns against Green Bay in their playoff showdown.

LINE: San Francisco opened -5 and has dropped to -4.5. The total has been adjusted from 50.5 to 48.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Green Bay (-6.5) – San Francisco (-8.0) + home field (-3.0) = 49ers -4.5
WEATHER: Temperatures in low 70s, clear skies, winds WSW 6 mph
TRENDS:

* Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings.
* Packers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven meetings in San Francisco.
* Packers are 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 meetings.

Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams (-4.5, 41.5)

Longtime Tennessee coach Jeff Fisher is back for his second season with the Rams while Bruce Arians takes the reins for the Cardinals. He will be charged with reviving a team that produced an NFC-low 250 points and lost 11 of its final 12 games after bolting out to a 4-0 start last season.

St. Louis, surprisingly, had the best record within its division and looks to continue its ascent behind a youthful squad that features electrifying rookie receiver Tavon Austin. Daryl Richardson gets first crack at replacing free-agent departure RB Steven Jackson in the backfield and will run behind a beefed-up line that added former No. 1 overall pick Jake Long.

LINE: St. Louis opened as a 5-point favorite and moved to -4.5. The total has moved from 41 to 41.5 points.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Arizona (+5.0) – St. Louis (+2.5) + home field (-3.0) = Rams -5.5
WEATHER: N/A
TRENDS:

* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in St. Louis.
* Under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.
* Rams are 7-0 ATS in their last seven vs. NFC West.

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5, 48.5)

The New York Giants attempt to continue their dominance at Cowboys Stadium Sunday night. New York has won all four of its games in Dallas' new stadium since it opened in 2009, including a 29-24 triumph on Oct. 28. The Giants have captured six of the last eight overall meetings between the NFC East rivals.

New York hopes to have Victor Cruz in the lineup as the wide receiver suffered a bruised heel in the second week of the preseason and just returned to practice on Monday. Dallas looks to improve upon the 19th-ranked defense in the league in 2012. In an effort to accomplish this goal, the club replaced defensive coordinator Rob Ryan with Monte Kiffin and switched to a 4-3 alignment.

LINE: Dallas opened as a 3-point favorite and has moved to -3.5. The total has moved from 49 to 48.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: New York (-3.0) - Dallas (-1.5) + home field (-3.0) = Cowboys -4.5
WEATHER: N/A
TRENDS:

* Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings in Dallas.
* Giants are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.


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[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, September 8

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Sunday Night Football: Giants at Cowboys
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New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5, 50)

The New York Giants attempt to continue their dominance at AT&T Stadium when they visit the Dallas Cowboys inr the season opener for both teams Sunday night. New York has won all four of its games in Dallas' new stadium since it opened in 2009, including a 29-24 triumph on Oct. 28. The Giants have captured six of the last eight overall meetings between the NFC East rivals.

New York hopes to have Victor Cruz in the lineup as the wide receiver suffered a bruised heel in the second week of the preseason and just returned to practice on Monday. Dallas, which has missed the playoffs each of the last three seasons, looks to improve upon the 19th-ranked defense in the league in 2012. In an effort to accomplish this goal, the club replaced defensive coordinator Rob Ryan with Monte Kiffin and switched to a 4-3 alignment.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE: The Cowboys opened at -3 and have been bet up to -3.5.

WEATHER: N/A

ABOUT THE GIANTS (2012: 9-7, second NFC East): For the second straight season, running back Andre Brown was placed in the injured reserve/designated to return list - this time with a cracked bone in his left leg. Brown, who missed all of 2012 with a fractured left leg, is eligible to play on Nov. 10 against Oakland - putting plenty of pressure on David Wilson in the meantime. While Andre Brown may return at some point, safety Stevie Brown was lost for the season after suffering a torn anterior cruciate ligament in the team's third preseason game.

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (2012: 8-8, third NFC East): Tony Romo will be under the microscope like never before, as he was signed to a six-year, $108 million contract extension in the offseason despite tying a career high with 19 interceptions in 2012. Offensive coordinator Bill Callahan will succeed head coach Jason Garrett as the play-caller in an effort to help Romo improve upon his career-worst 90.5 passer rating from last season. Romo did, however, set franchise records in passing yards (4,903) and completions (425) last season.

TRENDS:

* The Cowboys are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 versus the NFC East.
* The Giants are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.
* The over is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Dallas.
* The road team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. New York QB Eli Manning has started 135 consecutive games, the longest active streak in the league. He is the only signal-caller in team history to pass for 3,000 yards and 20 touchdowns in eight straight seasons.

2. High-scoring games have been the norm of late in the all-time series. The Giants have scored at least 20 points in seven of the last eight meetings, while the Cowboys have done the same in eight of the last nine matchups.

3. Giants DE Jason Pierre-Paul is questionable for the season opener. Pierre-Paul did not play in the preseason after undergoing back surgery in June


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