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Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 4
Saturday's games
Top 13 games
Florida won its last eight games vs Tennessee, covering five of last six; Vols lost last four visits here, by 10-10-39-9 points (1-3 vs spread). In last 13 meetings, Gators are +13 in turnovers; last time Tennessee had a positive turnover ratio vs Florida was 1999. Nationwide, home favorites are 3-8 vs spread so far, in conference play. Florida is 5-7 as home fave under Muschamp, who covered once in last eight games as double digit favorite. Tennessee gave up 687 yards in 59-14 loss at Oregon last week; they're 2-6 in last eight games as a road underdog.
First ACC road game for Pitt squad that is 7-3 vs spread in last 10 games as a road favorite; Panthers have a senior QB, decent experience on OL- they split pair of home games, drilling New Mexico last week after FSU QB winston carved them up in opener. Since '05, Duke is 12-24 vs spread as a home underdog; they gave up 344 rushing yards in 38-14 loss to Georgia Tech in ACC opener last week. Nationwide, conference home underdogs are 4-6 vs spread so far this season.
Underdogs are 7-1-1 vs spread in last nine North Carolina-Georgia Tech games; Tar Heels lost last seven visits here (1-4-1 vs spread in last six). Tech is 13-2 in last 15 series games, winning last four by average score of 39-27- they had 380 rushing yards in 68-50 win at UNC last year. Tech is 13-11-1 as home favorite under Johnson; they've got national TV game vs Va Tech coming up Thursday. Carolina lost six of last eight on ACC road, with four of six losses by 7 or less points- they're 1-3-1 vs spread in last five games as a road underdog.
West Virginia won its last seven games vs Maryland, in series where the favorite is 10-5 vs spread in last 15 meetings. WVU scored 31+ points in last six series games, but they struggled on offense in first two games, vs Wm Mary/Oklahoma, before improving vs Georgia State last week. WV is 5-2 as underdog under Holgorsen, but they've got new QB, young OL. Terps are 4-5 as favorite under Edsall, 2-0 this year; Maryland gained 501 yards in 32-21 win (-6) at UConn last week, avenging LY's loss to the Huskies. Senior QB completed 67% of passes in first three games.
Air Force won six of last seven games vs Wyoming, in series where dog is 7-1 vs spread last eight years. Cowboys won two of last three series games; dogs covered five of last six series games played here. Air Force allowed 94 points in losing its two I-A games this year, getting smoked by Utah State (52-20), Boise (42-20). Inexperienced Falcons (30 starts back from LY on OL and new QB) are 5-2 as home dogs under Calhoun. Wyoming is 2-3 as road favorite under Christensen; they had 602 yards (219 running/383 passing) in 37-34 loss at Nebraska, a positive sign.
Utah-BYU is bitter rivalry where underdog is 12-4 vs spread the last 16 years, with three of last four meetings decided by 3 or less points; Utes are 5-3 in last eight visits here, with dogs 7-1 vs spread in eight games. BYU ran ball for 550 yards in 40-21 waxing of Texas last game, after it lost opener in monsoon at Virginia. Utah lost 51-48 at home to Oregon State last week; they're 10-10 as road dog under Whittingham. This used to be conference game, but BYU went independent, Utes went to Pac-12, which makes rivalry game little more important for Cougars.
Utah State is already playing third road game this month; since '07, State is 23-8 vs spread as road dog, going 14-2 under former coach Anderson (now at Wisconsin). Aggies have best QB (Keeton/24 starts) in this game vs USC, which is 8-4 in its last 12 games as home favorite. Trojans had excellent balance (257 yards running, 264 passing) in easy win over BC last week, after being held to 193 TY in upset loss to Wazzu. goes to Arizona State Thursday night, better not look past this gritty foe that lost its season opener 30-26 at end to Utah of Pac-12.
Houston is 8-3 in last 11 games vs inner-city rival Rice, winning last two years, 35-14/73-34; underdogs are 7-5 vs spread in last 12 series games, but this is no longer league rivalry, with Cougars in AAC now. Houston had last week off after winning AAC opener at Temple; they're 14-7 in last 21 games as favorite, 4-4 under Levine. Owls are 7-1-1 vs spread in last nine games as underdog; they outgained Kansas by 100 yards in last week's 23-14 win, after hanging with A&M in the half Manziel sat out- they lost 52-31 when Manziel played the second half.
Underdogs are 10-5-1 vs spread in last 16 Michigan State-Notre Dame games, 6-2 in last eight series games played here; Irish whacked Spartans 31-13/20-3 last two years, after Spartans got win 34-31 two years ago, pulling fake FG in OT. State is 8-6 as road dog under Dantonio; they've struggled on offense so far, gaining 297-265 yards in two non-covers vs I-A foes. Irish are playing third straight Big Dozen foe and Oklahoma is coming to town next week; over last decade, ND is 18-32-2 when giving points at home, 8-9-3 under Kelly.
First road game for Kansas State squad that is 15-3 vs spread in last 18 games as road dog; they lost at home to I-AA team, then spanked couple of I-A stiffs. Texas is in freefall, giving up 84 points in losing last two games to BYU, Ole Miss; they've already axed their DC, the QB is hurt and rumors are everywhere that Mack Brown is lame duck. Longhornns gave up 550 rushing yards at BYU, then 272 at home to Rebels- they got outgained by total of 363 yards in two losses. Since 2009, Texas is 9-15 vs spread when laying points at home.
Arizona State won wild game at home last week, when refs screwed up spotting ball and didn't allow Wisconsin to try chip shot FG to win on last play, but a win is a win; ASU is facing Stanford for first time since 2010- favorites covered four of last five in series. Sun Devils lost five of last six visits here, with favorites 5-1 vs spread in those games- they are 12-20-2 as road dogs since '03. Stanford coasted past Army last week on east coast- they're 2-8 in last ten games as home favorites. Cardinal has experience edge on OL, ASU has it at QB. Interesting game.
LSU won four of last five games with Auburn; favorites covered four of those five games. Auburn lost last six visits to LSU by average score of 31-14 (2-4 vs spread). This is first road game for Auburn QB Marshall, who has been shaky throwing ball but did lead game-winning drive in last minute vs Miss State last week. Auburn is 2-7 as road underdog since Cam Newton left town. LSU is 7-18-1 vs spread in its last 26 SEC home games- they beat TCU in Ft Worth (semi-road game) then crushed pair of stiffs. QB Mettenberger is playing great under OC Cam Cameron.
Missouri was outgained 387-384 in last game by Toledo; they had last week off, while Indiana was crushing pretty good Bowling Green squad 42-10 (-2.5) week after they lost at home to Navy. Big Dozen teams are 7-9 vs spread in non-league games; SEC teams 7-10, 1-3 on foreign soil. Hoosier QB Sudfeld is completing 71% of passes- Indiana is 7-4 in last 11 games as home underdog (4-4 under Wilson). Hoosiers have 19 of 22 starters back from LY; progress is expected. Missouri covered nine of last 12 games as a road favorite.
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Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 4
Saturday's games
Top 13 games
Florida won its last eight games vs Tennessee, covering five of last six; Vols lost last four visits here, by 10-10-39-9 points (1-3 vs spread). In last 13 meetings, Gators are +13 in turnovers; last time Tennessee had a positive turnover ratio vs Florida was 1999. Nationwide, home favorites are 3-8 vs spread so far, in conference play. Florida is 5-7 as home fave under Muschamp, who covered once in last eight games as double digit favorite. Tennessee gave up 687 yards in 59-14 loss at Oregon last week; they're 2-6 in last eight games as a road underdog.
First ACC road game for Pitt squad that is 7-3 vs spread in last 10 games as a road favorite; Panthers have a senior QB, decent experience on OL- they split pair of home games, drilling New Mexico last week after FSU QB winston carved them up in opener. Since '05, Duke is 12-24 vs spread as a home underdog; they gave up 344 rushing yards in 38-14 loss to Georgia Tech in ACC opener last week. Nationwide, conference home underdogs are 4-6 vs spread so far this season.
Underdogs are 7-1-1 vs spread in last nine North Carolina-Georgia Tech games; Tar Heels lost last seven visits here (1-4-1 vs spread in last six). Tech is 13-2 in last 15 series games, winning last four by average score of 39-27- they had 380 rushing yards in 68-50 win at UNC last year. Tech is 13-11-1 as home favorite under Johnson; they've got national TV game vs Va Tech coming up Thursday. Carolina lost six of last eight on ACC road, with four of six losses by 7 or less points- they're 1-3-1 vs spread in last five games as a road underdog.
West Virginia won its last seven games vs Maryland, in series where the favorite is 10-5 vs spread in last 15 meetings. WVU scored 31+ points in last six series games, but they struggled on offense in first two games, vs Wm Mary/Oklahoma, before improving vs Georgia State last week. WV is 5-2 as underdog under Holgorsen, but they've got new QB, young OL. Terps are 4-5 as favorite under Edsall, 2-0 this year; Maryland gained 501 yards in 32-21 win (-6) at UConn last week, avenging LY's loss to the Huskies. Senior QB completed 67% of passes in first three games.
Air Force won six of last seven games vs Wyoming, in series where dog is 7-1 vs spread last eight years. Cowboys won two of last three series games; dogs covered five of last six series games played here. Air Force allowed 94 points in losing its two I-A games this year, getting smoked by Utah State (52-20), Boise (42-20). Inexperienced Falcons (30 starts back from LY on OL and new QB) are 5-2 as home dogs under Calhoun. Wyoming is 2-3 as road favorite under Christensen; they had 602 yards (219 running/383 passing) in 37-34 loss at Nebraska, a positive sign.
Utah-BYU is bitter rivalry where underdog is 12-4 vs spread the last 16 years, with three of last four meetings decided by 3 or less points; Utes are 5-3 in last eight visits here, with dogs 7-1 vs spread in eight games. BYU ran ball for 550 yards in 40-21 waxing of Texas last game, after it lost opener in monsoon at Virginia. Utah lost 51-48 at home to Oregon State last week; they're 10-10 as road dog under Whittingham. This used to be conference game, but BYU went independent, Utes went to Pac-12, which makes rivalry game little more important for Cougars.
Utah State is already playing third road game this month; since '07, State is 23-8 vs spread as road dog, going 14-2 under former coach Anderson (now at Wisconsin). Aggies have best QB (Keeton/24 starts) in this game vs USC, which is 8-4 in its last 12 games as home favorite. Trojans had excellent balance (257 yards running, 264 passing) in easy win over BC last week, after being held to 193 TY in upset loss to Wazzu. goes to Arizona State Thursday night, better not look past this gritty foe that lost its season opener 30-26 at end to Utah of Pac-12.
Houston is 8-3 in last 11 games vs inner-city rival Rice, winning last two years, 35-14/73-34; underdogs are 7-5 vs spread in last 12 series games, but this is no longer league rivalry, with Cougars in AAC now. Houston had last week off after winning AAC opener at Temple; they're 14-7 in last 21 games as favorite, 4-4 under Levine. Owls are 7-1-1 vs spread in last nine games as underdog; they outgained Kansas by 100 yards in last week's 23-14 win, after hanging with A&M in the half Manziel sat out- they lost 52-31 when Manziel played the second half.
Underdogs are 10-5-1 vs spread in last 16 Michigan State-Notre Dame games, 6-2 in last eight series games played here; Irish whacked Spartans 31-13/20-3 last two years, after Spartans got win 34-31 two years ago, pulling fake FG in OT. State is 8-6 as road dog under Dantonio; they've struggled on offense so far, gaining 297-265 yards in two non-covers vs I-A foes. Irish are playing third straight Big Dozen foe and Oklahoma is coming to town next week; over last decade, ND is 18-32-2 when giving points at home, 8-9-3 under Kelly.
First road game for Kansas State squad that is 15-3 vs spread in last 18 games as road dog; they lost at home to I-AA team, then spanked couple of I-A stiffs. Texas is in freefall, giving up 84 points in losing last two games to BYU, Ole Miss; they've already axed their DC, the QB is hurt and rumors are everywhere that Mack Brown is lame duck. Longhornns gave up 550 rushing yards at BYU, then 272 at home to Rebels- they got outgained by total of 363 yards in two losses. Since 2009, Texas is 9-15 vs spread when laying points at home.
Arizona State won wild game at home last week, when refs screwed up spotting ball and didn't allow Wisconsin to try chip shot FG to win on last play, but a win is a win; ASU is facing Stanford for first time since 2010- favorites covered four of last five in series. Sun Devils lost five of last six visits here, with favorites 5-1 vs spread in those games- they are 12-20-2 as road dogs since '03. Stanford coasted past Army last week on east coast- they're 2-8 in last ten games as home favorites. Cardinal has experience edge on OL, ASU has it at QB. Interesting game.
LSU won four of last five games with Auburn; favorites covered four of those five games. Auburn lost last six visits to LSU by average score of 31-14 (2-4 vs spread). This is first road game for Auburn QB Marshall, who has been shaky throwing ball but did lead game-winning drive in last minute vs Miss State last week. Auburn is 2-7 as road underdog since Cam Newton left town. LSU is 7-18-1 vs spread in its last 26 SEC home games- they beat TCU in Ft Worth (semi-road game) then crushed pair of stiffs. QB Mettenberger is playing great under OC Cam Cameron.
Missouri was outgained 387-384 in last game by Toledo; they had last week off, while Indiana was crushing pretty good Bowling Green squad 42-10 (-2.5) week after they lost at home to Navy. Big Dozen teams are 7-9 vs spread in non-league games; SEC teams 7-10, 1-3 on foreign soil. Hoosier QB Sudfeld is completing 71% of passes- Indiana is 7-4 in last 11 games as home underdog (4-4 under Wilson). Hoosiers have 19 of 22 starters back from LY; progress is expected. Missouri covered nine of last 12 games as a road favorite.
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