The Bum's Sept. CFB POD's-Stats-News !

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Power Rankings


Conference Rankings

Despite Miami's huge win over Florida, the ACC remains in fourth place thanks to Virginia getting pasted at home by Oregon courtesy of a little Pac-12 muscle-flexing. Though the Hurricanes and Seminoles look solid in joining Clemson as the pride of the league, the rest of the conference is just 13-7. The Pac-12 adds another ranked squad in impressive-looking Arizona, while the Big Ten picked up a key win thanks to Michigan's handling of Notre Dame. Texas' loss to BYU brought another round of blushes for the ordinary-looking Big 12.

1) SEC
2) Pac-12
3) Big Ten
4) ACC
5) Big 12
6) American Athletic Conference (AAC)
7) Mountain West
8) MAC
9) C-USA
10) Sun Belt

BCS Championship Prediction
Alabama vs. Oregon - The Ducks ventured to the East coast and wrecked shop in Charlottesville, but their job of getting here looks even more complicated given how physical Stanford looked in its debut against San Jose State. The Quack Attack visits Palo Alto on Nov. 7.

Heisman Watch
1) Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M
2) Tahj Boyd, QB, Clemson
3) Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville

If he conquers Alabama again, Manziel may give Uncle Nate the green light to see how much a second Heisman could fetch on eBay if sold together as a set. He continues to get the proper respect here as reigning champion. Meanwhile, Dabo Swinney needs to take notice of how long their coaches left Johnny and Teddy Football out there to pad stats if he wants to give Boyd a fair crack at this.

Team to Watch
Ohio State - Quarterback Braxton Miller's status makes Ohio State's trip to Berkeley interesting in Week 3. Although California is young and struggled mightily with FCS member Portland State last weekend, they're still easily the top non-conference opponent the Buckeyes will run into until bowl season arrives. Considering Florida A&M is on the schedule next week, Urban Meyer has to be giving serious consideration to the cautious approach of sitting his Heisman candidate in the hopes he'll be back at full strength when Wisconsin visits the Horseshoe on Sept. 28. Do the Buckeyes have enough to win without him thousands of miles from home against the first truly gifted quarterback they'll run into this season? Decisions, decisions.

Top 25 - Week 1
Rank School Betting Notes Prev
1 Alabama, (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS)
-- BYE 1
2 Oregon, (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS)
-- Beat Virginia 59-10 2
3 Clemson, (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS)
-- Beat South Carolina State 52-13 3
4 Stanford, (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS)
-- Beat San Jose State 34-13 7
5 Ohio State, (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS)
-- Beat San Diego State 42-7 5
6 Louisville, (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS)
-- Beat Eastern Kentucky 44-7 6
7 Michigan, (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS)
-- Beat Notre Dame 41-30 10
8 Texas A&M, (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS)
-- Beat Sam Houston State 65-28 9
9 Oklahoma State, (2-0 SU, 0-2 ATS)
-- Beat Texas-San Antonio 56-35 8
10 LSU, (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS)
-- Beat UAB 56-17 12
11 Florida State, (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS)
-- BYE 13
12 Miami, Fl. (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS)
-- Beat Florida 21-16 18
13 Georgia, (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS)
-- Beat South Carolina 41-30 20
14 South Carolina, (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS)
-- Lost to Georgia 41-30 4
15 Oklahoma, (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS)
-- Beat West Virginia 16-7 13
16 UCLA, (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS)
-- BYE 17
17 Wisconsin, (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS)
-- Beat Tennessee Tech 48-0 19
18 Washington, (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS)
-- BYE 21
19 Arizona State, (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS)
-- Beat Sacramento State 55-0 22
20 Baylor, (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS)
-- Beat Buffalo 70-13 23
21 Northwestern, (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS)
-- Beat Syracuse 48-27 24
22 Ole Miss, (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS)
-- Beat SE Missouri State 31-13 25
23 Florida, (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS)
-- Lost to Miami (FL) 21-16 15
24 Notre Dame, (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS)
-- Lost to Michigan 41-30 16
25 Arizona, (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS)
-- Beat Buffalo 58-13 NR

Dropped out: Texas

On the cusp: Nebraska, Fresno State, Utah, Texas Tech, Michigan State, BYU, Texas, TCU, UCF, Georgia Tech

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4th Quarter Covers - Week 2

September 10, 2013


Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in the second weekend of college football. Each week there are several teams that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows, get the details in this weekly column.

East Carolina (-19½) 31, Florida Atlantic 13: While the overall statistics in this Conference USA opener were almost even East Carolina pulled to a 31-6 lead and past the spread with a touchdown run late in the third quarter. The Pirates were deep in FAU territory early in the fourth quarter after a fumble but East Carolina gave the ball back with their own fumble. Late in the game Florida Atlantic missed a field goal but then with just over a minute left the Owls stole the cover with a touchdown as almost half of the total yardage for the Owls came on the final three drives.

Oklahoma State (-30) 56, Texas-San Antonio 35: Those laying the four touchdown plus spread with the Cowboys had to feel pretty comfortable with Oklahoma State up 42-7 entering the fourth quarter as the offense led by J.W. Walsh was incredibly efficient a week after greatly struggling against Mississippi State. Oklahoma State would add two more touchdowns in the fourth but the defense clearly let up as the Roadrunners hit a few big plays and wound up with four fourth quarter touchdowns to bring the final margin to just 21 points. Texas-San Antonio ended up with over 500 yards in the game though over half of that total came on the final four possessions late in the game.

Houston (-3½) 22, Temple 13: With over 500 yards of offense the Houston offense looked on track but the Cougars trailed at halftime and after settling for two short field goals in the third quarter Houston led just 15-13 heading into the final frame. Temple had a 78-yard drive late in the third quarter but they missed a field goal and the Owls could not take advantage of a fourth quarter opportunity near mid-field after a fumble. Temple’s last shot was ended with an interception deep in its own territory and Houston punched in a spread-winning touchdown with just over a minute to go in a game where the scoring did not match up with the yardage as Houston kicked four field goals of fewer than 25 yards.

Ohio (-3½) 27, North Texas 21: The spread on this game opened as high as -8 before dropping sharply throughout the week as most on the favored Bobcats wound up with a win. It did not look likely late in the game as the score was tied 21-21 well into the fourth quarter before Ohio settled for a go-ahead field goal with eight minutes to go, up three but short of the spread. North Texas was not able to move the ball on its final two possessions however and a 22-yard field goal for Ohio with just over a minute to go was enough to cash favorite tickets for most. Ohio had a big yardage edge but also had a defensive touchdown that changed the game early.

North Carolina (-20) 40, Middle Tennessee State 20: North Carolina led 23-0 at the half with two interceptions in UNC territory proving costly for Middle Tennessee State. The Blue Raiders made it a game in the second half however, ending up with over 400 yards and 26 first downs. After a defensive touchdown early in the fourth cut the lead to just 13 the underdog cover looked likely but North Carolina went up by 27 with just over two minutes to go after Middle Tennessee State was stopped on fourth down tries on consecutive possessions. With 25 seconds left the Blue Raiders found the end zone again to bring the final margin to just 20, and leaving a close call for everyone involved on the game. North Carolina was a 21½-point favorite early in the week before the line dipped as low as 18½ late in the week. On Saturday the line climbed back to close at -20 or 20½ so timing was everything for your result. Both teams missed two-point conversions in the game, plays that ended up proving to be pretty important in the spread result.

Ohio State (-29½) 42, San Diego State 7: While there was no scoring in the fourth quarter San Diego State certainly had opportunities to spoil the cover for the Buckeyes as the Aztecs had two fourth quarter turnovers deep in Ohio State territory with one touchdown being enough to flip the result. The first half also ended with San Diego State on the Ohio State two-yard line as this game was a definitely a bit closer than the score suggests, though Ohio State did play much of the way without star QB Braxton Miller and the emotional toll his loss may have had.

Duke (-4) 28, Memphis 14: While beating Memphis does not warrant great celebration this was a big win for a Duke program that has struggled on the road. The Blue Devils allowed Memphis to tie the game 14-14 early in the fourth quarter but Duke’s offense was sharp late, delivering back-to-back 75-yard touchdown drives late to seal the win and cover even without starting QB Anthony Boone.

Missouri (-14½) 38, Toledo 23: The yardage in this game was nearly dead even but Missouri pulled to a 24-9 lead after a 70-yard interception return early in the second half. That margin of 15 was just past the closing line on this game but earlier in the week Missouri was often favored by as many as 17. Toledo scored back-to-back touchdowns and opted to go for 1 on the second touchdown late in the third quarter to trail by one. Missouri scored on the next two possessions however to get back up by 15 as the entire fourth quarter was played on the Toledo side of the field and the Rockets left with another commendable but unsatisfying loss against a SEC team.

Penn State (-28½) 45, Eastern Michigan 7: The Eagles actually scored first in this game but Penn State was able to eventually pull away. The Lions led by just 10 at the half and by just 17 entering the fourth quarter as covering this huge spread looked doubtful most of the way. Three fourth quarter touchdowns provided enough of cushion however with a few big plays late. The Penn State defense certainly starred however with Eastern Michigan punting after no more than five plays in all seven second half possessions.

Minnesota (-16½) 44, New Mexico State 21: After getting three return touchdowns in the opener the Gophers had more big play magic with punt return and fumble return touchdowns to pull away at New Mexico State. Minnesota led by just 16 entering the fourth quarter but pulled up 44-14 before a late New Mexico State score in the final minute. Minnesota had a huge edge on the ground but still allowed 356 yards.

New Mexico (+7½) 42, UTEP 35: The Miners led 28-21 going into the fourth quarter, meaning a push for most as the line was at seven much of the week before a late rise. New Mexico put together consecutive scoring drives to turn the tables however. UTEP was able to force overtime with a 14-play drive to score with just over a minute to go. Going first the Lobos only took three plays to score in overtime and in a dramatic finish New Mexico stopped UTEP on 4th and one after an eight-play series to win the game.

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Pac-12 Report - Week 3

September 11, 2013

For the second straight week, there was a shocker in the Pac-12. Perhaps just for one week, the Washington State Cougars and their fans can say they held sole possession of first place in the Pac-12. Washington State won an ugly, low-scoring game at Southern California by a 10-7 margin. It was completely unexpected in that Wazzu won outright, but also combined with USC for just 17 total points in what is usually a wide-open, high-octane offense league.

What surprises might we see this weekend? There are quite a few games worth keeping an eye on in the Pac-12. Stanford, UCLA and Washington all head east, while Arizona State, California and Oregon all welcome opponents from the eastern time zone. It will be interesting to say the least.

Last weekend, the league went 9-1 straight up and 6-4 ATS. The home teams were 6-1 straight up and 3-4 ATS, while road teams were 3-0 straight up and ATS. The 'over' went 6-4 in Week 1, with the 'over' going 4-3 for the home teams.

2013 PAC-12 STANDINGS
Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Arizona 2-0 0-0 2-0 1-1
Arizona State 1-0 0-0 1-0 1-0
California 1-1 0-0 0-2 2-0
Colorado 2-0 0-0 2-0 1-1
Oregon 2-0 0-0 2-0 2-0
Oregon State 1-1 0-0 0-2 1-1
Southern California 1-1 0-1 0-2 0-2
Stanford 1-0 0-0 0-1 0-1
UCLA 1-0 0-0 1-0 1-0
Utah 2-0 0-0 2-0 2-0
Washington 1-0 0-0 1-0 0-1
Washington State 1-1 1-0 2-0 0-2


UCLA at Nebraska (ABC, 12:00 p.m. ET)
UCLA stunned Nebraska by a 36-30 score Sept. 8, 2012, and you know fans of Big Red have had this game circled on the calendar for a while. The Huskers will be looking for redemption when QB Brett Hundley and the Bruins invade Lincoln Saturday. It will be interesting to see how the Bruins handle what will be, to them, a 9am kickoff time. It wouldn't be surprising to UCLA get off to a bit of a slow start, and that time difference situation should not be ignored. The total is set around 70 points, and all trends point to a high-scoring affair. The over is 7-1 in UCLA's past eight, and 5-1 in their past six against a team with a winning record, while the over is 4-0 in Nebraska's past four, and 4-0-1 against a team with a winning record, remember that early kickoff time. The teams might be playing catch-up to make the game go over t

Boston College at Southern California (Pac-12 Network, 3:00 p.m. ET)
USC head coach Lane Kiffin is feeling an intense white-hot heat in L.A. following an uninspired 10-7 setback against Washington State last weekend. The Trojans look like they still have plenty of talent at the skill positions, but WR Marqise Lee has had a case of the dropsies on more than one occasion, and USC is not playing anywhere near their capabilities. USC is just 1-6 ATS in their past seven against a team with a winning record, they're 0-5 in their past five non-conference games and 0-5 in their past five games overall dating back to last season's stumbling down the stretch. BC looked solid last week against Wake, with RB Andre Williams running hot. The Eagles have offensive weapons in QB Chase Rettig and WR Alex Amidon, too, so it would be wise for USC not to write them off. However, over the years, Boston College has been a completely different animal on the road, failing to cover their past six road contests. This will be interesting to watch, if nothing more than to see what happens if USC loses another game at home when they enter play as a double-digit favorite. The boobirds will be out early if QB Cody Kessler doesn't get off to a hot start.

Tennessee at Oregon (ABC, 3:30 p.m. ET)
The Tennessee Volunteers head west trying to corral the high-flying Oregon Ducks. It will be an interesting measuring stick game for the Vols, who are 2-0, but haven't really been tested in wins over Austin Peay and Western Kentucky. Oregon rolled up huge numbers in their opener against Nicholls State, and they hammered Virginia on the road by a 59-10 score. There might be no slowing down the Ducks offense, who have nearly caused the total to go over themselves in each of their first two contests. With Tennessee averaging 48.5 ppg, and Oregon averaging 62.5 ppg, the 'over' is looking like a very tempting play. Also keep in mind that Tennessee is 3-9-1 ATS in their past 13 against a team with a winning record, and Oregon is 7-1 ATS in their past eight against a team with a winning record. Will the Ducks win by four touchdowns or more, though?

Washington at Illinois (Big Ten Network, 6:00 p.m. ET)
Personally, the Washington-Illinois game is the one Pac-12 game I am looking forward to the most. Washington whipped Boise State 38-6 in their opener back on Aug. 31, while Illinois has shown amazing offense in their first two games, both victories. The Illini was particularly impressive in hammering Cincinnati 45-17, and they have averaged 43.5 ppg through two games. The 'over' has cashed in each of their games thus far. It will be interesting to see if Illini QB Nathan Scheelhaase can continue his effective play. Washington RB Bishop Sankey rolled up 161 rushing yards with two scores against Boise State, and he'll now test the Illini defense. The Huskies are 6-1 ATS over their past seven games, and 4-1 ATS in their past five againts a team with a winning record. Illinois is 4-0 ATS in their past four neutral site games, but they are just 2-9 ATS in their past 11 overall, and 1-7 ATS in their past eight games against a team with a winning record.

Ohio State at California (FOX, 7:00 p.m. ET)
Ohio State QB Braxton Miller (knee) suffered a sprained knee in last weekend's blowout win over San Diego State, but QB Kenny Guiton came on and performed admirably. Still, playing on the road against a quality opponent might be a different story if Guiton is thrust into action again. The Buckeyes are 28-10-1 ATS in their past 39 road games, and 8-2-1 ATS in their past 11 against Pac-12 opponents. Cal kept it surprisingly close last season in Columbus, falling just 35-28 in the Horseshoe. RB Brandon Bigelow torched the Buckeyes for 160 yards and two touchdowns on just four carries, and he will be a secondary story to the Ohio State QB situation. The spread for this game hinges on the knee of Miller.

Wisconsin at Arizona State (ESPN, 10:30 p.m. ET)
The Badgers hit the road for the first time in 2013, and this will obviously be their biggest test of the season. The Badgers have covered a pair of 44 1/2-point spreads against Massachusetts and Tennessee Tech, and they have yet to yield a point this season. That has caused each of their first two games to go 'under'. They'll get a much sterner test against AZ State. The Sun Devils also have yet to be scored upon this season, blanking Sacramento State 55-0 in their only game Sept. 5. There are a lot of unknowns in this game, making it a bit difficult to handicap. How good are the defenses for these teams? We'll find out in the first quarter. The total is rather low at 52 1/2. The 'over' has cashed in 20 of Arizona State's past 28 games, and is 4-1 in their past five non-conference tilts. The 'over' is also 11-4 in their past 15 home games, while the 'over' has cashed in four of Wisconsin's past five road games. The 'over' is also 15-6-1 in Wisconsin's past 22 games against a team with a winning record.

Other Games
Stanford at Army (CBS SN, 12:00 p.m. ET )
Fresno State at Colorado (2:00 p.m. ET )
Southern Utah at Washington State (Pac-12 Network, 6:30 p.m. ET)
Oregon State at Utah (10:00pm ET)
Texas-San Antonio at Arizona (10:30 p.m. ET)

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ACC Report - Week 3

September 11, 2013

The Atlantic Coast Conference has really picked up some much-needed credibility over the first two weekends of the season. First off, Clemson slayed Georgia in a visit to Death Valley in Week 1, and then Miami held court at Land Shark Stadium last weekend against Florida. Two wins against some of the SEC's biggest names definitely has the ACC trending upward.

This weekend, there aren't many marquee games in the league, but Virginia Tech does have a difficult trip to Greenville against Conference USA's East Carolina, and Boston College could make waves by beaten a wounded, yet still dangerous Southern California out on the coast.

Overall, the league went 8-3 straight-up and 6-5 ATS. Home teams went 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS, while road teams went 1-2 straight-up and 1-2 ATS. The 'under' went 7-4 in Week 2, with the 'under' going 4-4 at home.
2013 ACC STANDINGS
Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Boston College 2-0 1-0 1-1 0-2
Clemson 2-0 0-0 1-1 2-0
Duke 2-0 0-0 2-0 0-2
Florida State 1-0 1-0 1-0 1-0
Georgia Tech 1-0 0-0 1-0 1-0
Maryland 2-0 0-0 2-0 1-1
Miami (Fla.) 2-0 0-0 1-1 0-2
North Carolina 1-1 0-0 1-1 0-2
North Carolina State 2-0 0-0 1-1 0-2
Pittsburgh 0-1 0-1 1-0 1-0
Syracuse 0-2 0-0 1-1 1-1
Virginia 1-1 0-0 1-1 1-1
Virginia Tech 1-1 0-0 0-1-1 0-1-1
Wake Forest 1-1 0-1 0-2 0-2

Virginia Tech at East Carolina (Saturday - 12:00 p.m. ET)
Neither of these teams have been particularly strong against the spread in recent times in non-conference battles. The Hokies were crushed in their opener against Alabama, before pushing a 42-point spread against Western Carolina at Blackburg. The Hokies hit the road this weekend, and they better be ready for the Shane Carden-Justin Hardy connection. East Carolina has failed to cover either of their first two games against inferior opponents Old Dominion or Florida Atlantic, although they just missed covering by one point in each. In fact, FAU scored a late touchdown in the final moments for a backdoor cover last Thursday in Greenville. The 'under' might be the more sound play, as it is 12-5 in Virginia Tech's past 17 road games against a team with a winning home record, while the under is 5-1 in East Carolina's past six against ACC foes.

Boston College at Southern California (3:00 p.m. ET)
USC head coach Lane Kiffin is feeling an intense white-hot heat in L.A. following an uninspired 10-7 setback against Washington State last weekend. The Trojans look like they still have plenty of talent at the skill positions, but WR Marqise Lee has had a case of the dropsies on more than one occasion, and USC is not playing anywhere near their capabilities. USC is just 1-6 ATS in their past seven against a team with a winning record, they're 0-5 in their past five non-conference games and 0-5 in their past five games overall dating back to last season's stumbling down the stretch. BC looked solid last week against Wake, with RB Andre Williams running hot. The Eagles have offensive weapons in QB Chase Rettig and WR Alex Amidon, too, so it would be wise for USC not to write them off. However, over the years, Boston College has been a completely different animal on the road, failing to cover their past six road contests. This will be interesting to watch, if nothing more than to see what happens if USC loses another game at home when they enter play as a double-digit favorite. The boobirds will be out early if QB Cody Kessler doesn't get off to a hot start.

Georgia Tech at Duke (ESPNU, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Duke was mighty impressive hitting the road for a win last week, albeit against a less-than-stellar Memphis team. Still, this is Duke we're talking about, and they are usually a doormat. The Blue Devils lost QB Anthony Boone to a broken collarbone, however, and they will hand the reins over to QB Brandon Connette on a full-time basis. He has been impressive to date, but can he do well against a good team at home? The Yellow Jackets have covered five conference games in a row, and six of their past seven overall. Duke, on the other hand, has failed to cover each of its past four ACC games, and they're 0-4 ATS in their past four against teams with a winning record. If the Blue Devils are going to continue to gain credibility, covering an eight-point spread at home against a team they haven't fared well against over the years would be another big step forward. Georgia Tech is 7-2 ATS in the past eight meetings in this series.

Nevada at Florida State (ESPN, 3:30 p.m. ET)
The Wolf Pack continue their ambitious out-of-conference schedule, landing in Tallahassee Saturday. They've already faced a Top 25 team at UCLA, and they were smashed 58-20 back on Aug. 31. Nevada has plenty of firepower, and it all starts with QB Cody Fajardo. They are averaging 28.0 ppg, thanks to a 36-7 victory over Cal-Davis in Reno last weekend. Fajardo not only can do it with his arm, but he has three rushing touchdowns as well. Florida State has just one game under their belt, and QB Jameis Winston is already a legend in Tally. He helped work over Pittsburgh back on Sept. 2, leading the Seminoles to 377 passing yards in a 41-13 victory. Nevada is just 5-12-1 ATS in their past 18 non-conference games, and 1-5 ATS in their past six road contests.

Maryland at Connecticut (7:30 p.m. ET)
The Terrapins have been one of the bigger surprises in the ACC, and perhaps their hot start secretly has teams happy they will be leaving the league after this season. Maryland stomped Florida International in their first contest, and they roughed up Old Dominion last weekend. Connecticut opened their season Aug. 29 with a 33-18 setback against FCS opponent Towson, and have had more than two weeks to lick their wounds. Make no mistake, they'll be ready for the challenge from Maryland after pouring over video from their embarrassing loss. Of course, they had a whole summer to get ready for their opener and look how that turned out. UConn is just 2-7-1 ATS in their past 10 games overall, and 1-4-1 ATS in their past six at home. Maryland enters as a seven-point favorite, and the public has pounded the Terps at a nearly three-to-one clip.

Other Games
Louisiana-Monroe at Wake Forest (12:30 p.m. ET)
New Mexico at Pittsburgh (12:30 p.m. ET)
Wagner at Syracuse (4:00 p.m. ET)

Byes
Clemson, Miami (Fla.), North Carolina, North Carolina State, Virginia

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Beyond the BCS: Capping college football's small conferences

Some of the best betting value in college football is hiding beyond the BCS, in the small conferences. Each week, Covers Experts’ Doc’s Sports will look at the little programs that could help you make big cash this college season.

Team to watch: Rice Owls

This week: -6.5 vs. Kansas

Rice kicked off its season with a tough road date at Texas A&M, but it accounted itself relatively well by pinning 31 points on the Aggies and covering the 28-point spread in a 52-31 loss. The Owls were even better last year against Kansas, going into Lawrence as 12-point underdogs and coming away with a 25-24 win.

Are the Jayhawks in line for some revenge? Maybe not. They are 1-4 ATS in their last five overall, 0-4-1 ATS in their last five non-conference games, and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 against C-USA opposition. Rice is 4-0 ATS in its last four overall, 5-0 ATS in its last five out of conference, and 5-0 ATS in its last five against teams with winning records.

Team to beware: New Mexico State Aggies

This week: +6.5 vs. UTEP

It’s not like New Mexico State scheduled Texas and Minnesota to begin its season in order to get battle-tested for conference play. After all, the Aggies are independent. So it’s hard to see anything good having come from those two contests. New Mexico State lost at Texas 56-7 and to Minnesota 44-21. The Longhorns rushed for a bloated 359 yards and the Golden Gophers racked up 342 yards on the ground.

The Aggies are going up against a UTEP squad that gained 280 yards on 46 carries in a 42-35 loss last weekend. UTEP is 4-0 (3-1 ATS) in the last four season’s against New Mexico State. The Aggies’ own trends are not encouraging, either. They are 0-6 ATS in their last six overall, 0-5 ATS in their last five non-conference contests, and 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.

Total team: Troy Trojans

This week: 66.5 at Arkansas State

Quarterback Corey Robinson, who has surpassed 3,000 yards through the air in each of his first three seasons, is already up to his old tricks. Through two games of 2013, Robinson has completed a ridiculous 47 of 51 passes for 499 yards and five touchdowns without throwing an interception. Troy also rushed for a combined 419 yards in victories over UAB and Savannah State.

The over is 8-1 in the Trojans’ last nine overall, including 2-0 this year (they beat UAB 34-31 and Savannah State 66-3). Four of their last five non-conference games have gone over the total. Troy is facing an Arkansas State team that is averaging 547 yards per game, including 329.5 on the ground, in 2013.

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NCAAF
Long Sheet

Week 3

Thursday, September 12

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TCU (1 - 1) at TEXAS TECH (2 - 0) - 9/12/2013, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TEXAS TECH is 68-42 ATS (+21.8 Units) in home games since 1992.
TEXAS TECH is 68-42 ATS (+21.8 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
TEXAS TECH is 94-66 ATS (+21.4 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TEXAS TECH is 1-0 against the spread versus TCU over the last 3 seasons
TEXAS TECH is 1-0 straight up against TCU over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TULANE (1 - 1) at LOUISIANA TECH (1 - 1) - 9/12/2013, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TULANE is 72-102 ATS (-40.2 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
TULANE is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in a road game where the total is between 56.5 and 63 since 1992.
LOUISIANA TECH is 18-33 ATS (-18.3 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TROY (2 - 0) at ARKANSAS ST (1 - 1) - 9/12/2013, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARKANSAS ST is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
ARKANSAS ST is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
ARKANSAS ST is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARKANSAS ST is 2-0 against the spread versus TROY over the last 3 seasons
ARKANSAS ST is 2-0 straight up against TROY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NCAAF
Short Sheet

Week 3

Thursday, September 12, 2013

TCU at Texas Tech, 7:30 ET
TCU: 1-8 ATS after scoring 37 points or more
Texas Tech: 24-11 ATS in BB home matchup

Tulane at Louisiana Tech, 7:30 ET
Tulane: 1-15 ATS after a loss by 3 or less point
Louisiana Tech: 16-10 ATS in all games

Troy at Arkansas State, 7:30 ET
Troy: 1-5 ATS off a home win
Arkansas State: 20-8 ATS in all games




NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 3

Thursday's games

Texas Tech (-1.5) beat TCU 56-53 LY, despite being outgained by 127 yards, primarily because of +3 turnover ratio. Red Raiders passed for 910 yards on 106 passes in first two games- they're 7-3 as home dogs since '06. TCU is down to one quality QB with Pachall (arm) out for eight weeks; Horned Frogs allowed 404 rushing yards first two games, including 207 to SE Louisiana- they're 1-4 as road faves last 2+ years. Neither team has much experience on OL; Tech has new coach, new QB, five new starters on OL.

Tulane (-6.5) lost at home to I-A newbie South Alabama last week, after being outgained by I-AA Jackson State week before. Since 2010, Green Wave is 9-7-1 as road underdogs; Tech lost 15 of 22 starters from LY; they're 4-6 as home favorites last 3+ years, but with a new coach, new QB and five new starters on OL, hard to endorse laying poiints. Since '07, Skip Holtz is 10-18 vs spread as a home fave, at ECU/USF. These teams haven't met since '98.

Arkansas State beat Troy last two years, with two different coaches; its 4th coach in four years for ASU now- they got drilled 38-9 by Malzahn and Auburn last week, outgained only 468-422. Red Wolves are 10-4 vs spread as home favorites since '10- they beat Troy the last two seasons, 41-34/45-14 Trojans' QB Robinson has more career starts (38) than his whole starting OL combined; he's completed 58-64 passes in first two games, rallying his team back from down 17-7 at half to beat UAB in OT in opener. Troy is 13-11-1 vs spread in last 25 games as a road dog.




NCAAF

Week 3

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Trend Report
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Thursday, September 12

7:30 PM
TCU vs. TEXAS TECH
TCU is 16-7 SU in its last 23 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of TCU's last 6 games
Texas Tech is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Texas Tech is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games

7:30 PM
TROY vs. ARKANSAS STATE
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Troy's last 9 games
Troy is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games
Arkansas State is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
Arkansas State is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Troy

7:30 PM
TULANE vs. LOUISIANA TECH
Tulane is 3-21 SU in its last 24 games
Tulane is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Louisiana Tech is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Louisiana Tech is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games at home

[StarDust Bum]

Tech Trends - Week 3

September 11, 2013


Thursday, Sept. 12

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend


TCU at TEXAS TECH...TCU now 4-11-1 vs. line last 17, but Gary Patterson is 5-1 as a visiting dog since 2011. TT only 8-10 vs. line at home the past three years for Tuberville. TCU, based on team trends.


TULANE at LA TECH...La Tech (no covers last 7) and Skip Holtz (0-7 last 6 and 4-18-1 last 23 vs. line at USF & LT) both slumping badly of late. Tulane, based on LT negatives.
at TROY at ARKANSAS STATE...ASU 20-8 vs. line since 2011. Red Wolves also 10-4 as Jonesboro chalk since 2010. ASU also won and covered last two vs. Troy after losing and failing to cover previous four. ASU, based on team trends.


Friday, Sept. 13

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend


AIR FORCE at BOISE STATE (Friday, September 13)...Boise 2-10 vs. line against FBS at Bronco Stadium in 2011-12 as the old blue carpet magic has disappeared lately. But AFA only 3-12 vs. line since 2012. Slight to AFA, based on team trends.

[StarDust Bum]

TCU at Texas Tech

September 11, 2013


The third week of the college football season starts off with a Lone Star state matchup from the Big XII between TCU and Texas Tech. Last year’s meeting was the first between the schools as Big XII foes and it was certainly memorable with a 56-53 outcome. Take a closer look at this week’s opening game to start off the next football week.

Matchup: Texas Christian Horned Frogs at Texas Tech Red Raiders
Venue: Jones AT&T Stadium in Lubbock, Texas (fieldturf)
Date: Thursday, September 12, 2013
Time/TV: 7:30 PM ET – ESPN
Line: TCU -3, Over/Under 63
Last Meeting: 2012 at TCU, Texas Tech (+1½) 56, TCU 53 (3OT)

It has been four years since the fallout between Mike Leach and Texas Tech, but the program has been handed back to one of Leach’s former quarterbacks. Kliff Kingsbury is off to a 2-0 start as a head coach after a successful 2012 season as the offensive coordinator at Texas A&M. A big surprise for the Red Raiders has been walk-on freshman Baker Mayfield winning the job and succeeding as the new quarterback in Lubbock. It has been just two weeks and the competition has been light, but the Red Raiders have been the second-most productive passing team in the country with over 450 yards per game.

While Texas Tech twice went to bowl games in the post-Leach era under Tommy Tuberville, the team has not reached the same heights, though they were ranked as high as #15 in the polls last season after a 6-1 start. In four of the final six games of last season, the Red Raiders allowed 50 or more points and while Texas Tech emerged a bowl winner, it was a fortunate comeback victory against a mediocre Minnesota team. The defense does return a decent amount of experience, but after allowing 490 yards in the opening game against SMU, it is still a glaring concern for the team. While TCU had a marquee opening week game, this is the big early season game for Texas Tech as a win here could allow for a potential 6-0 or 7-0 start before the schedule gets very difficult late in the season.

TCU had all sorts of problems on and off the field last season, still managing to end up 7-6, but there was a great optimism that this year’s team could compete much better in the second year in the Big XII. Most projected TCU to be one of the best defensive teams in a conference often lacking strong defense and the offense appeared to be in good hands with the return of senior quarterback Casey Pachall. Trevone Boynkin played significantly last season in Pachall’s absence and was expected to still have a significant role on the team, but he takes over as the full-time leader for the time being with Pachall injured last week. Gary Patterson’s TCU teams have won 11 or more games in seven of the last 10 years, but there is not much margin for error remaining for the Frogs to reach that mark this season.

In the highly-anticipated opener with LSU at Cowboys Stadium, TCU stayed in the game and lost respectably by just 10 points, but the statistics suggested that the margin of victory could have been more significant. Last week, TCU won by 21 over Southeastern Louisiana, but it was a game where the Frogs were not dominant and if not for a turnover edge might have been even closer. Texas Tech won convincingly on the scoreboard over Stephen F. Austin last week, but four turnovers from the offense left a bit of a concern. This is definitely a big game in the Big XII standings as while neither team has looked like an elite contender for the league title, the struggles of Texas on defense, Oklahoma on offense, and the daunting distractions hitting Oklahoma State this week could open up the race.

The key matchups in this game should be the TCU pass rush led by Devonte Fields going against the inexperience of Mayfield. The young quarterback has not thrown an interception yet despite throwing 90 passes, but this will be the toughest test he has faced by far and he will need to make good decisions while wisely using his mobility to his advantage. TCU has an experienced secondary that is expected to be among the best in the Big XII if not the nation led by cornerback Jason Verrett, who projects as a possible first round NFL pick.

TCU should be able to run the ball in this matchup even if the rushing numbers for the Frogs have not been exceptional so far. Trailing much of the way in the opener forced more passing and needless to say, Texas Tech does not have the same talent on defense as LSU. Boykin is a threat on the ground at quarterback and while B.J. Catalon only has 111 rushing yards so far this season, he has rushed for over 5.8 yards per carry after averaging 4.7 yards per carry last season. TCU has some inexperience on the offensive line and Texas Tech returned its entire starting front seven from last season. The Red Raiders will never rank highly in defensive statistics due to the pace of the offense, but there are some playmakers on the defense led by defensive ends Kerry Hyder and Delvon Simmons.

If this year’s game resembles last season’s game it should be must-see TV and with an underwhelming Thursday NFL matchup this will be a game to keep an eye on. The stakes are big for both teams as while both squads are likely headed to the postseason again there may be an opportunity for the winner to rise in the Big XII picture.

Last Meeting: Last season, Texas Tech led 21-20 at halftime last season in Fort Worth with the Red Raiders ranked #18 in the nation. TCU moved the ball well but consistently had to settle for field goals, eventually taking a 26-21 lead early in the fourth quarter. Texas Tech stepped up on defense to force consecutive 3-and-outs and the Red Raiders were up by 10 with just over four minutes to go after Kenny Williams broke a touchdown run from mid-field. TCU answered with a 60-yard touchdown pass and forced a punt to get the ball back with just over a minute to go, down three. The Frogs were able to quickly get into field goal position, but with four plays from inside the Texas Tech 20, they had to settle for the tying kick to go to overtime. Neither team faced much stress in the first two overtimes with matching touchdowns in both sessions. In the third overtime, TCU had to settle for a field goal and in four plays, Texas Tech found the end zone for the win, 56-53.

Series History: Texas Tech is 12-5-2 SU since 1980, but last season’s meeting was the first since 2006. The ATS results have split in the last eight meetings going back to 1991. The last time TCU played in Luboock was 2004, losing 70-35 as just a 6-point underdog.

Line Movement: The road favorite spread has been steady at -3 while the total has climbed from 62 to 63.

TCU Historical Trends: The Frogs have been an excellent road team, going 36-10 S/U on the road since 2005 with a solid 25-19-2 ATS mark. TCU failed in both instances as a road favorite last season, but they are 9-7 ATS in that role since 2009. TCU is 29-21-1 ATS as a favorite of less than 10 since 1995, but just 2-5 ATS in that role the last two seasons.

Texas Tech Historical Trends: Since October of 1994, Texas Tech is on an 18-8 ATS run as a home underdog. The Red Raiders are just 3-3 ATS in that role the past three seasons since Leach left. Texas Tech is just 11-14 as an underdog since 2007, including losing in each of the last three instances last season. Texas Tech has just four S/U wins in 16 attempts as underdog since 2010.

There are two other college games Thursday night:

Tulane at Louisiana Tech 7:30 PM ET (FS1)
Line: Louisiana Tech -8½, Over/Under 57

A big improvement is expected for Tulane this season, but losing to recent FBS entrant South Alabama last week was a big blow to entertaining any bowl hopes for the Wave. Tulane rallied after falling behind 28-7, but it was not enough as they failed late in the game on what would have been a tying 2-point conversion. With a new coaching staff and few experienced players, it is expected to be a big transition season for Louisiana Tech, a 9-3 team last year. Lamar was one of the worst teams in the Southland last season, so struggling in a narrow win last week was not a great showing for the Bulldogs. Historically, Ruston has been a very tough place to play, but Tulane is a team with a much higher ceiling than they have had in most recent seasons. Tulane is just 4-19 S/U on the road since 2009 while Louisiana Tech is 23-15-2 ATS at home since 2005.

Troy at Arkansas State 7:30 PM ET (ESPNU)
Line: Arkansas State -8½, Over/Under 66½

Troy is 2-0, but Savannah State was a one-win FCS team last season, so the blowout result is not worth much credit and the opening win over UAB featured some good fortune. Arkansas State has been the Sun Belt champion the last two years with two different coaches and new leader Bryan Harsin had a better showing than it looked last week in a 38-9 loss at Auburn. The Red Wolves had more first downs and similar yardage production against the Tigers, but settled for three field goals and failed going for it on fourth down on three long drives to come up empty. Senior quarterback Adam Kennedy has run the offense with success and the Troy defense will face a jump in competition this week. Arkansas State is 12-1 S/U at home the last two plus seasons and Troy has allowed 86 points in this matchup the last two years. Larry Blakeney is one of the longest tenured coaches in the nation as this is his 23rd season at Troy. He has just nine returning starters this season but the Trojans are 2-0, looking to return to a bowl game after losing seasons the last two years. Troy is just 3-6 ATS in this series since 2004 and Arkansas State is 11-5 ATS as a home favorite since 2010.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 3

TCU at Texas Tech
The Red Raiders look to take advantage of a TCU team that is coming off a 38-17 win over SE Louisiana and is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games following a SU victory. Texas Tech is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Raiders favored by 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Texas Tech (+3 1/2). Here are all of this week's games.

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 12

Game 103-104: TCU at Texas Tech (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: TCU 95.059; Texas Tech 97.362
Dunkel Line: Texas Tech by 2 1/2; 58
Vegas Line: TCU by 3 1/2; 62 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas Tech (+3 1/2); Under

Game 105-106: Tulane at Louisiana Tech (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulane 65.292; Louisiana Tech 89.393
Dunkel Line: Louisiana Tech by 24; 62
Vegas Line: Louisiana Tech by 7; 57
Dunkel Pick: Louisiana Tech (-7); Over

Game 107-108: Troy at Arkansas State (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Troy 76.914; Arkansas State 82.086
Dunkel Line: Arkansas State by 5; 72
Vegas Line: Arkansas State by 8; 66 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Troy (+8); Over




NCAAF

Thursday, September 12

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Thursday's NCAAF action: What bettors need to know
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Troy Trojans at Arkansas State Red Wolves (-7.5, 66.5)

Troy boasts one of the best non-BCS QBs in Corey Robinson. The senior has passed for nearly 500 yards over his first two games, connecting on five touchdowns, including four in the Trojans’ 66-3 blowout of Savannah State last weekend. Senior transfer Wilson Van Hooser is expected to be in the receiving corps and returning kicks after missing Week 2 with a concussion.

Arkansas State was mauled by Auburn, 38-9, last weekend but takes on a familiar foe in Troy Thursday. The Red Wolves have defeated the Trojans SU and ATS the past two seasons, covering as favorites in each of those games. Arkansas State and QB Adam Kennedy were able to move the ball against Auburn but got shut down in the red zone.

WEATHER: Temperatures in mid 80s, 17 percent chance of thunderstorms, winds west 4 mph.

LINE: Arkansas State opened at -10.5 and has been bet down to -7.5. The total is at 66.5.

TRENDS:

* Road team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Trojans are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five conference games.
* Red Wolves are 5-0 ATS in their last five conference games.


Tulane Green Wave at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (-7.5, 57)

Tulane couldn’t complete the comeback against South Alabama in Week 2 and was disappointed with its defensive performance, giving up 31 points in the first half. Head coach Curtis Johnson has shuffled his stop unit in hopes of sparking a sense of urgency versus Louisiana Tech. He is also looking to run the ball more after picking up only 45 yards on 27 carries last week.

The Bulldogs took a licking from North Carolina State in the season opener and picked up an easy victory over FCS Lamar in Week 2. Louisiana Tech welcomed RB Tevin King back after he missed last season with a knee injury, rushing for 182 yards last week. Fellow RB Kenneth Dixon, who ran for 1,194 yards and 27 TDs last year, injured his knee versus Lamar and could be a game-time decision Thursday.

WEATHER: Temperatures in low 90s with partly cloudy skies and winds blowing north at 1 mph.

LINE: La. Tech opened at -7.5. The total has moved from 57 to 57.5.

TRENDS:

* Green Wave are 0-4 ATS in their last four games in September.
* Bulldogs are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* Over is 21-8 in Bulldogs’ last 29 home games.


TCU Horned Frogs at Texas Tech Red Raiders (+3, 63)

Trevone Boykin replaced Casey Pachall as the starter last season and did just enough to get Texas Christian into a bowl game. He’ll take over at quarterback again Thursday, when the 24th-ranked Horned Frogs open Big 12 play on the road against Texas Tech. Boykin went 3-6 as a freshman in 2012 after Pachall left the team to seek treatment for substance abuse addiction and replaced him again Saturday, when Pachall broke his left arm in a win over Southeastern Louisiana.

Pachall is expected to miss eight weeks, but Boykin threw for a career-high 332 yards and four touchdowns in his third career start against the Red Raiders, who went on the road to upset TCU 56-53 in triple overtime last season. The win turned out to be a high point for Texas Tech, which went on to lose four of its last five regular-season games. The Red Raiders have opened 2-0 for the ninth straight year, averaging 51 points behind walk-on freshman quarterback Baker Mayfield.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the mid 80s, partly cloudy skies, winds blowing SE at 9 mph.

LINE: TCU opened as a 3-point favorite and is as high as -3.5 at some books. Total has moved from 62 to 63.

TRENDS:

* Horned Frogs are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 conference games.
* Red Raiders are 5-0 ATS in their last five games in September.
* Over is 6-0 in Red Raiders' last six games overall.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Long Sheet

Week 3

Thursday, September 12

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TCU (1 - 1) at TEXAS TECH (2 - 0) - 9/12/2013, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TEXAS TECH is 68-42 ATS (+21.8 Units) in home games since 1992.
TEXAS TECH is 68-42 ATS (+21.8 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
TEXAS TECH is 94-66 ATS (+21.4 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TEXAS TECH is 1-0 against the spread versus TCU over the last 3 seasons
TEXAS TECH is 1-0 straight up against TCU over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TULANE (1 - 1) at LOUISIANA TECH (1 - 1) - 9/12/2013, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TULANE is 72-102 ATS (-40.2 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
TULANE is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in a road game where the total is between 56.5 and 63 since 1992.
LOUISIANA TECH is 18-33 ATS (-18.3 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TROY (2 - 0) at ARKANSAS ST (1 - 1) - 9/12/2013, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARKANSAS ST is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
ARKANSAS ST is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
ARKANSAS ST is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARKANSAS ST is 2-0 against the spread versus TROY over the last 3 seasons
ARKANSAS ST is 2-0 straight up against TROY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NCAAF
Short Sheet

Week 3

Thursday, September 12, 2013

TCU at Texas Tech, 7:30 ET
TCU: 1-8 ATS after scoring 37 points or more
Texas Tech: 24-11 ATS in BB home matchup

Tulane at Louisiana Tech, 7:30 ET
Tulane: 1-15 ATS after a loss by 3 or less point
Louisiana Tech: 16-10 ATS in all games

Troy at Arkansas State, 7:30 ET
Troy: 1-5 ATS off a home win
Arkansas State: 20-8 ATS in all games




NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 3

Thursday's games

Texas Tech (-1.5) beat TCU 56-53 LY, despite being outgained by 127 yards, primarily because of +3 turnover ratio. Red Raiders passed for 910 yards on 106 passes in first two games- they're 7-3 as home dogs since '06. TCU is down to one quality QB with Pachall (arm) out for eight weeks; Horned Frogs allowed 404 rushing yards first two games, including 207 to SE Louisiana- they're 1-4 as road faves last 2+ years. Neither team has much experience on OL; Tech has new coach, new QB, five new starters on OL.

Tulane (-6.5) lost at home to I-A newbie South Alabama last week, after being outgained by I-AA Jackson State week before. Since 2010, Green Wave is 9-7-1 as road underdogs; Tech lost 15 of 22 starters from LY; they're 4-6 as home favorites last 3+ years, but with a new coach, new QB and five new starters on OL, hard to endorse laying poiints. Since '07, Skip Holtz is 10-18 vs spread as a home fave, at ECU/USF. These teams haven't met since '98.

Arkansas State beat Troy last two years, with two different coaches; its 4th coach in four years for ASU now- they got drilled 38-9 by Malzahn and Auburn last week, outgained only 468-422. Red Wolves are 10-4 vs spread as home favorites since '10- they beat Troy the last two seasons, 41-34/45-14 Trojans' QB Robinson has more career starts (38) than his whole starting OL combined; he's completed 58-64 passes in first two games, rallying his team back from down 17-7 at half to beat UAB in OT in opener. Troy is 13-11-1 vs spread in last 25 games as a road dog.




NCAAF

Week 3

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Trend Report
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Thursday, September 12

7:30 PM
TCU vs. TEXAS TECH
TCU is 16-7 SU in its last 23 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of TCU's last 6 games
Texas Tech is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Texas Tech is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games

7:30 PM
TROY vs. ARKANSAS STATE
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Troy's last 9 games
Troy is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games
Arkansas State is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
Arkansas State is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Troy

7:30 PM
TULANE vs. LOUISIANA TECH
Tulane is 3-21 SU in its last 24 games
Tulane is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Louisiana Tech is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Louisiana Tech is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games at home

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

09/07/13 70-*37-*1 65.42% +*14650 Detail

09/06/13 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail

09/05/13 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail

09/02/13 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail

09/01/13 4-*0-*0 100.00% +*2000 Detail

Totals 79-*42-*1 65.29% +16400


Thursday, September 12

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Troy - 7:30 PM ET Arkansas State -7 500 POD # 3

Arkansas State - Under 67.5 500 POD # 5


Tulane - 7:30 PM ET Louisiana Tech -7 500 POD # 1

Louisiana Tech - Over 59 500 POD # 6


Texas Christian - 7:30 PM ET Texas Tech +3 500 POD # 2

Texas Tech - Under 60.5 500 POD # 4

[Kaptain]

as always....gl BUM

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

09/07/13 70-*37-*1 65.42% +*14650 Detail

09/06/13 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail

09/05/13 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail

09/02/13 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail

09/01/13 4-*0-*0 100.00% +*2000 Detail

Totals 79-*42-*1 65.29% +16400


Thursday, September 12

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Troy - 7:30 PM ET Arkansas State -7 500 POD # 3

Arkansas State - Under 67.5 500 POD # 5


Tulane - 7:30 PM ET Louisiana Tech -7 500 POD # 1

Louisiana Tech - Over 59 500 POD # 6


Texas Christian - 7:30 PM ET Texas Tech +3 500 POD # 2

Texas Tech - Under 60.5 500 POD # 4

like the Tul/LaTech OVER and Tech......get em bum

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 3

FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 13

Game 109-110: Air Force at Boise State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Air Force 79.848; Boise State 90.236
Dunkel Line: Boise State by 10 1/2; 53
Vegas Line: Boise State by 24; 57 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Air Force (+24); Under




NCAAF
Long Sheet

Week 3

Friday, September 13

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AIR FORCE (1 - 1) at BOISE ST (1 - 1) - 9/13/2013, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
AIR FORCE is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
AIR FORCE is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
AIR FORCE is 23-44 ATS (-25.4 Units) off a loss against a conference rival since 1992.
BOISE ST is 109-69 ATS (+33.1 Units) in all games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 109-69 ATS (+33.1 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 88-58 ATS (+24.2 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
BOISE ST is 52-33 ATS (+15.7 Units) in home games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 52-33 ATS (+15.7 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 66-42 ATS (+19.8 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
BOISE ST is 67-41 ATS (+21.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
BOISE ST is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in a home game where the total is between 56.5 and 63 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
AIR FORCE is 1-0 against the spread versus BOISE ST over the last 3 seasons
BOISE ST is 1-0 straight up against AIR FORCE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NCAAF
Short Sheet

Week 3

Friday, September 13, 2013

Air Force at Boise State, 8:00 ET ESPN
Air Force: 1-13 ATS off a conference loss by 21+ points
Boise State: 14-4 Under at home off a home game




NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 3

Friday's game

Boise State (-11) beat Air Force 37-26 at home in '11, with total yardage 423-408 in its favor; Broncos are 2-10 as home favorites last two years, after being 28-15 in that role from '04-'10. Over last nine years, Falcons are 15-14-1 as road underdogs- they're 8-16 vs spread in last 24 league games. Boise got whacked 38-6 at Washington; this is their first D-I tilt since then, curious to see how they respond. Air Force gave up 577 TY at home to Utah State last week, 360 thru air, as Aggies converted 11-15 on third down. Air Force is outmanned, but will always give an effort.




NCAAF

Week 3

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Trend Report
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Friday, September 13

8:00 PM
AIR FORCE vs. BOISE STATE
Air Force is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Air Force is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Boise State is 23-2 SU in its last 25 games at home
Boise State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Friday, September 13

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Air Force at Boise State: What bettors need to know
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Air Force Falcons at Boise State Broncos (-23.5, 57)

Boise State's dalliance with the Top 25 may have been brief, but the Broncos showed last week that they're eager to return. Fresh off a 49-point drubbing of Tennessee-Martin, head coach Chris Petersen's club looks to continue its march toward a Mountain West Conference title as it entertains the Air Force Falcons on Friday night. Air Force had to do without starting quarterback Kale Pearson last time out, and it showed as the Falcons were thumped 52-20 by Utah State.

Air Force head coach Troy Calhoun has already made peace with the fact that Peterson, who suffered a knee in the season-opening 38-13 victory over Colgate, likely won't return against the Broncos. That should spell concern for a Falcons squad that struggled to fashion any sort of aerial attack against the Aggies last weekend. Boise State had no such trouble against Tennessee-Martin, as quarterback Joe Southwick racked up 234 passing yards and five touchdowns.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN

LINE: Boise State has been a steady 23.5-point favorite throughout the week. The total has dropped slightly from 57.5 to 57.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the mid-80s with partly cloudy skies and winds blowing S as high as 11 mph.

ABOUT AIR FORCE (1-1, 0-2 ATS): Calhoun was succinct when explaining his team's loss, which was punctuated by a stretch in which Utah State scored on four straight series to effectively put the game away. "I think we got thumped in every possible way in this game," Calhoun told the Air Force News Service. "In the first half, we had a chance to make some plays that we didn't make." The Falcons boast a potent running game that has averaged better than 285 yards per game - good for 18th in the nation - and should excel in the triple-option offense against a Boise State team that has struggled with run defense.

ABOUT BOISE STATE (1-1, 1-1 ATS): Last weekend's win was critical in helping restore the confidence of a Broncos team that plummeted out of the rankings following a 38-6 loss to the Washington Huskies in the season opener - the program's worst defeat since 2005. The Boise State defense still surrendered 362 total yards to Tennessee-Martin and has allowed an average of 210 rushing yards through the first two games - and Petersen blames tackling troubles. "You create space, you're going to miss tackles. We have to get more guys to the point of attack. One guy is not going to make the tackle in space."

TRENDS:

* Air Force is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games.
* The over is 6-1 in the Falcons' last seven September games.
* Boise State is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 conference games.
* The under is 5-2 in the Broncos' last seven games following a SU win of more than 20 points.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Broncos are 80-4 at home since 2000.

2. Air Force is 12-10 in Mountain West road games under Calhoun.

3. Boise State prevailed 37-26 in the only previous meeting between the teams back in 2011.

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

09/12/13 2-*3-*1 40.00% -*650 Detail
09/07/13 70-*37-*1 65.42% +*14650 Detail
09/06/13 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
09/05/13 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
09/02/13 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
09/01/13 4-*0-*0 100.00% +*2000 Detail

Totals 81-*45-*2 64.29% +15750

Friday, September 13

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Air Force - 8:00 PM ET Boise State -23.5 500 POD # 1


Boise State - Over 58 500 POD # 2