The Bum's Sept. CFB POD's-Stats-News !

[StarDust Bum]

College football betting weather report: Saturday's forecasts

Find out how weather will impact your college football bets for Saturday's matchups:

Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles at Wisconsin Badgers (-45, 58.5)

The forecast in Madison is calling for temperatures in the high-70s and there is also a 42 percent chance of thunderstorms.

Bowling Green Falcons at Kent State Golden Flashes (+6.5, 44.5)

Temperatures will be in the mid-70s with a small 22 percent chance of rain in the forecast for Dix Stadium.

South Florida Bulls at Michigan State Spartans (-23, 43.5)

Rain looms in the forecast for this game in East Lansing as there is a 30 percent chance of showers in the forecast.

Florida Gators at Miami Hurricanes (+3, 48)

Temperatures will be in the mid-80s with a 20 percent chance of thunderstorms in the forecast.

South Carolina State Bulldogs at Clemson Tigers (-52.5, 58.5)

The forecast is calling for temperatures in the mid-80s with an outside possibility of rain at 20 percent.

Weber State Wildcats at Utah Utes (-23, 48.5)

There is a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms in the forecast for Salt Lake City with wind blowing across the field at 8 mph.

New Hampshire Wildcats at Central Michigan Chippewas (-3, 62)

Temperatures will be in the low-80s with a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms in the forecast.

Utah State Aggies at Air Force Falcons (+9.5, 59)

Temperatures will be in the low-80s but rain could threaten with a 20 percent chance of thunderstorms. Wind will blow at 10 mph towards the north end zone of Falcon Stadium.

Idaho Vandals at Wyoming Cowboys (-28, 65.5)

Forecasts in Laramie are calling for temperatures in the low-80s with a 37 percent chance of thunderstorms.

Syracuse Orange at Northwestern Wildcats (-17, 53)

Temperatures will be in the low-80s and forecasts are calling for a 21 percent chance of thunderstorms.

James Madison Dukes at Akron Zips (-3, 52.5)

Temperatures will be in the high-70s in Akron, but the threat of thunderstorms exists as the game progresses with a 22 percent chance.

Texas Longhorns at BYU Cougars (+7, 57.5)

Temperatures will be in the mid-80s with wind blowing across the field at 6 mph. There is a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms in the forecast.

Prairie View A&M Panthers at Texas State Bobcats (-31, 55.5)

A 20 percent chance of thunderstorms looms early in this game, but should subside as the game progresses. Temperatures will be in the low-90s.

Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks at Texas Tech Red Raiders (-38, 74)

Temperatures will be in the high-80s with winds blowing towards the north end zone at 8 mph.

Nicholls State Colonels at Western Michigan Broncos (-28.5, 53.5)

There is a 20 percent chance of rain in the forecast for Nazareth. Temperatures will be in the low-80s.

UAB Blazers at LSU Tigers (-34.5, 62)

A 20 percent chance of rain could hit early in the game, but the threat will disappear as the game progresses.

Sam Houston State Bearkats at Texas A&M Aggies (-36.5, 69)

Temperatures will be in the low-90s with a 20 percent chance of rain looming around kickoff.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Michigan Wolverines (-4, 50)

This chapter in the rivalry could be wet one as there is a 29 percent chance of thunderstorms in the forecast at the Big House. Temperatures will be in the mid-70s.
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[StarDust Bum]

Where the action is: Saturday's NCAAF line moves

Books and bettors are both getting a grip on the college football season, which means plenty of line movement in Week 2 of the season. We talk to sportsbooks about the biggest adjustments to the odds heading into the weekend:

South Florida Bulls at Michigan State Spartans – Open: -24.5, Move: -23

Michigan State is still ironing out the wrinkles and has some health issues heading into Week 2, which has trimmed this spread a touch.

“Doubtfuls for Michigan State have seen this line creep down, but still obviously strong to the Spartans,” Aron Black of Bet365.com tells Covers. “Money is still coming on them at the adjusted line.”

Oklahoma State Cowboys at Texas-San Antonio Road Runners – Open: +31.5, Move: 26.5

The Cowboys took a while to get going against Mississippi State in Week 1 but found their high-scoring form in the second half. Some markets opened this one way too high and since the adjustment, the majority of money is on OSU and could take this spread back up.

“Heavy action on Cowboys,” says Mike Perry of Sportsbook.ag. “On Friday, we moved OSU to -28 with 85 percent of cash on Oklahoma State.”

Toledo Rockets at Missouri Tigers – Open: -14.5, Move: -17.5, Move: -17

The Rockets are known for giving BCS programs a run for their money. This line jumped as many as three points, thanks to sharp money on Missouri, before bettors came back on Toledo, which is garnering 66 percent of the handle.

“Sharps are doing what sharps do in Week 2: touching double-digit dogs and smaller-market games,” says an oddsmaker with BetDSI.com.

Cincinnati Bearcats at Illinois Fighting Illini – Open: +12, Move: +7.5

The Bearcats beat up on Big Ten foe Purdue in Week 1 and opened as hefty favorites versus Illinois. However, early money made it clear the Illini have plenty of fight in them this weekend.

“Smart money says the opener gave too much to Cincy on the road,” says Black. “Although the line has gone to the Illini, the money is coming in now on the smaller spread on Cincinnati.”

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Tennessee Volunteers – Open: -9.5, Move: -13.5

Bettors expect a letdown from WKU after upsetting Kentucky in Week 1. Action has also bumped the total for this game from 55 to 58 points.

“Both sharp and public money is backing the Over Western Kentucky- Tennessee total, shooting from 55 to 58 with no buy back,” says BetDSI.com.

Oregon Ducks at Virginia Cavaliers – Open: +25.5, Move: +23.5, Move: 24.5

Some markets dropped the original line but most books opened Oregon -23 and have taken nothing but Ducks action, with sharp money getting a deal with Oregon on the road against a weaker ACC opponent.

“Ninety percent of money is on the Ducks,” says Perry. “This will be one of the five biggest decisions for the shop.”

Arkansas State Red Wolves at Auburn Tigers – Open: -13, Move: -10.5

Not everyone is buying into Auburn after its opening win over Washington State. The Tigers take on a dangerous Red Wolves squad, which has drawn the majority of spread bets and all the SU money, dropping from +390 to +330.

“Too much respect to Auburn with the early line,” says Black. “There has to be some respect given to a (ASU) team that went for 509 yards rushing last week.”

Idaho Vandals at Wyoming Cowboys – Open: -21.5, Move: -30, Move: -28.5

This line has moved as much as a full touchdown at some books while others opened Wyoming -27.5 and took sharp action on the home side, which pumped the line to -30. Wiseguys bought back the Vandals and has the line at -28.5 at most shops.

San Jose State Spartans and Stanford Cardinal – Open: -22, Move: -25.5

Stanford makes its debut against a familiar foe in SJSU. The Cardinal are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Spartans, but just escaped with a 20-17 win as 25.5-point favorites last fall. While the spread has climbed at most shops, Sportsbook.com is taking big money on San Jose State.

“Sharp money on San Jose State moved the line from Stanford -27.5 to -26,” says Perry. “About 72 percent of cash is on San Jose State.”

Sam Houston State Bearkats at Texas A&M Aggies - Open: -46.5, Move: -37

This game stinks of lookahead for the Aggies, with Alabama waiting on next week’s schedule. Johnny Manziel was the brunt of media criticism all week after his antics during the limited performance versus Rice in Week 1. A dark cloud resounds over this BCS-versus-FCS matchup and bettors have moved this line nearly 10 points since post.

[StarDust Bum]

Essential betting tidbits for Week 2 of college football

Below is a list of at least one betting tidbit for a plethora of matchups featuring two FBS schools on Saturday.

-Miami-Ohio gave up 374 yards in the second half last week to Marshall while only gaining 55 on offense. +17 at Kentucky this week.

-Penn State's offense managed just 57 yards rushing last week. Not much help for freshman QB Chistian Hackenburg. -24 vs. Eastern Michigan this week.

-Temple starting Quarterback Connor Reilly is expected to play but is nursing a sprained ankle. He led the owls in rushing yards last week at Notre Dame with 65. +3 vs. Houston.

-Kent State has covered the spread in the last four meetings with Bowling Green. +7 home dogs on Saturday.

-FCS McNeese State obliterated South Florida 53-21 last week. Bulls were 20.5-point faves. They are 23-point underdogs this week at Sparty, a swing of 43.5 points in spreads from Week 1 to 2.

-Michigan State wide receivers had six drops in Week 1 - a problem carried over from last season - as the offense struggled against Western Michigan.

-Oklahoma State opened as a 31.5-point road favorite at Texas Sam Antonio State and sharp action moved the line down as low as 26.5 by Friday afternoon.

-Cincinnati opened as a 12-point road favorite at Illinois and sharp action bet the line down to 7.5. Cincy has covered four in a rown and seven of eight going back to last season.

-The Gators have failed to cover in their last six games as favorites going back to last season. -3 on the road at Miami.

-Miami has scored at least 30 points in its last five games going back to last season.

-Big line moves in the Western Kentucky-Tennessee matchup. Line bet up to 13.5 from 9.5 and total bet up to 58 from 55.5.

-Middle Tennessee QB Logan Kilgore has a shoulder injury but is expected to play at North Carolina. All the early money us on the Blue Raiders though, moving the line from 21.5 to 17.5.

--Ball State started five new starters on the offensive line last week and gave up three sacks. -8 vs. Army.

-Mizzou has been bet up from -14.5 to -17 vs. Toledo. The Tigers have an off week next week before traveling to Indiana.

-Toledo's last seven games have played under the total. Missouri's last four have played over.

-Buffalo-Baylor is the highest total on the board of FBS matchups at 69 (dude).

-San Diego State lost to FCS Eastern Illinois last week at home as 14-point faves. A lot of sharp action came in on a quality Eastern Illinois team last week though so consider that for this week's game. Aztecs getting 28 points at Ohio State.

-Oregon gained 772 yards (500 on the ground) last week vs. FCS Nicholls State. -23 at Virginia.

-Air Force crushed Colgate by a score of 38-13 last week, but the Falcons lost Junior QB Kale Pearson to an ACL injury. Sophomore Jaleel Awini will start. +9.5 as the Falcons host Utah State Saturday.

-The under is 4-0 in the South Alabama Jaguars last four non-conference games. Total of 49 as the Jags are on the road to face Tulane.

-Wyoming racked up 602 yards of offense in Nebraska one week ago while Idaho surrendered 591 - 404 of which came through the air - in a loss to North Texas. The Cowboys are 28-point home faves.

-The Gamecocks are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six meetings with Georgia. The Bulldogs are 3.5-point faves.

-Memphis had a bye week to open the season the team has used that week off to better prepare for the Duke Blue Devils. Memphis are 4-point home dogs.

-Northwestern QB Kain Colter was injured last week versus Cal and is probable Saturday. But backup QB Trevor Siemian led Northwestern to a victory over Syracuse in the 2012 season opener. Northwestern is a 16.5-point home favorite against Syracuse Saturday.

-Seeing some sharp buy back on Idaho Saturday morning at Wyoming. Idaho quarterbacks coach was Wyoming running backs coach last season.

-Tulane has covered its last seven games going back to last season. 71% of the Covers Consensus is on the Green Wave today -6.5 vs. South Alabama.

-Nebraska gave up five touchdowns against Wyoming one week ago. Nebraska's defense was on the field for a total of 6 minutes and 41 seconds for those five TD drives. The Huskers are 28-point home faves against Southern Miss.

-LSU ended a streak of 331 straight carries without a fumble last week when the Tigers had one against TCU. -34.5 at home vs. UAB.

-The Kansas State Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four games versus opponents from the Sun Belt Conference. They are 10.5-point faves against UL Monroe Saturday.

-For whatever it's worth, ESPN's Kirk Herbstreit said he'd be shocked if West Virginia can hang around with Oklahoma today. Sooners opened -19.5 and bet up to 21.5 by early Sat. morning.

-Tulsa's field goal woes carried over from last season when walk-on kicker Carl Salazar missed two of less than 40 yards in a 34-7 loss at Bowling Green. Freshman Daniel Schwarz was 12-of-18 last year and five of his six misses were from 36 yards or less. -10.5 at home vs. Colorado State.

-Tulsa only picked up 51 rushing yards in the opener, ranking them 110th in the nation. Tulsa is a 10.5-point home fave against Colorado State.
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[StarDust Bum]

Early Session of POD'S:

Saturday, September 7

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Miami (Ohio) - 12:00 PM ET Kentucky -17 500
Kentucky - Under 54 500

Eastern Kentucky - 12:00 PM ET Louisville -40.5 500 POD # 5
Louisville -

Norfolk State - 12:00 PM ET Norfolk State +40 500
Rutgers -

Eastern Michigan - 12:00 PM ET Penn State -24.5 500 POD # 4
Penn State - Over 49 500

Houston - 12:00 PM ET Temple +3 500
Temple - Under 67 500

Tennessee Tech - 12:00 PM ET Wisconsin -44 500
Wisconsin -

Missouri State - 12:00 PM ET Missouri State +24.5 500
Iowa -

Bowling Green - 12:00 PM ET Bowling Green -7 500
Kent State - Over 44.5 500

Indiana State - 12:00 PM ET Indiana State +17 500
Purdue -

Southeastern Louisiana - 12:00 PM ET Southeastern Louisiana +43 500
Texas Christian -

South Florida - 12:00 PM ET South Florida +23 500 POD # 3
Michigan State - Under 43.5 500

Cincinnati - 12:00 PM ET Illinois +7.5 500 POD # 6
Illinois - Over 54.5 500

Florida - 12:00 PM ET Miami +3 500
Miami - Under 47.5 500

Oklahoma State - 12:00 PM ET Texas-San Antonio POD # 2+27.5 500
Texas-San Antonio - Under 60 500

Western Kentucky - 12:21 PM ET Western Kentucky +13.5 500
Tennessee - Over 58 500

Middle Tennessee - 12:30 PM ET Middle Tennessee +17.5 500
North Carolina - Over 65 500

South Carolina State - 12:30 PM ET Clemson -52.5 500
Clemson -

Army - 1:00 PM ET Ball State -8.5 500 POD # 1
Ball State - Under 61.5 500

Western Carolina - 1:30 PM ET Western Carolina +42 500
Virginia Tech -

Maine - 2:00 PM ET Maine -3.5 500
Massachusetts -

Weber State - 2:00 PM ET Utah -22 500
Utah -

Chattanooga - 2:00 PM ET Georgia State +10 500
Georgia State -

Tennessee-Martin - 3:00 PM ET Boise State -34.5 500
Boise State -

New Hampshire - 3:00 PM ET Central Michigan -2.5 500
Central Michigan -

Toledo - 3:30 PM ET Toledo +17 500 POD # 8
Missouri - Over 66 500

Buffalo - 3:30 PM ET Baylor -27.5 500
Baylor - Over 69 500

Alcorn State - 3:30 PM ET Alcorn State +41.5 500
Mississippi State -

San Diego State - 3:30 PM ET Ohio State -28 500
Ohio State - Under 56 500

Oregon - 3:30 PM ET Oregon -23.5 500
Virginia - Over 61 500

Utah State - 3:30 PM ET Utah State -9.5 500 POD # 7
Air Force - Under 58.5 500

South Alabama - 3:30 PM ET Tulane -6.5 500
Tulane - Under 49 500

[StarDust Bum]

Afternoon Games:


Idaho - 4:00 PM ET Wyoming -28 500 POD # 2
Wyoming - Under 65.5 500

Old Dominion - 4:00 PM ET Maryland -19 500
Maryland -

South Carolina - 4:30 PM ET South Carolina +3.5 500 POD # 3
Georgia - Under 56 500

Duke - 4:30 PM ET Duke -4 500
Memphis - Over 54 500

Portland State - 5:00 PM ET California -27.5 500 POD # 1
California -

James Madison - 6:00 PM ET James Madison +3.5 500
Akron -

Syracuse - 6:00 PM ET Northwestern -16.5 500 POD # 5
Northwestern - Over 53 500

Navy - 6:00 PM ET Navy +13 500
Indiana - Under 68 500

Richmond - 6:00 PM ET North Carolina State -30.5 500
North Carolina State -

Southern Mississippi -6:00 PM ET Southern Mississippi +27.5 500
Nebraska - Under 59.5 500

UL Lafayette - 6:30 PM ET UL Lafayette +11 500 POD # 4
Kansas State - Over 61 500

Gardner Webb - 6:30 PM ET Marshall -42.5 500
Marshall -

[StarDust Bum]

Earlier Results From This Morning:

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

09/07/13 24-*8-*1 75.00% +*7600 Detail

09/06/13 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
09/05/13 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
09/02/13 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
09/01/13 4-*0-*0 100.00% +*2000 Detail

Totals 33-*13-*1 71.74% +9350

[StarDust Bum]

Evenng POD'S:


Samford - 7:00 PM ET Arkansas -32.5 500
Arkansas -

Alabama-Birmingham - 7:00 PM ET Alabama-Birmingham +34.5 500
Louisiana State - Over 61.5 500

SE Missouri State - 7:00 PM ET SE Missouri State +49.5 500
Mississippi -

North Texas - 7:00 PM ET North Texas +4 500
Ohio - Under 58.5 500

West Virginia - 7:00 PM ET Oklahoma -21.5 500
Oklahoma - Under 56 500

Sam Houston State - 7:00 PM ET Texas A&M -35 500
Texas A&M -

Grambling State - 7:00 PM ET Grambling State +47 500
UL Monroe -

Stephen F. Austin - 7:00 PM ET Texas Tech -34.5 500
Texas Tech -

Savannah State - 7:00 PM ET Savannah State +51.5 500
Troy -

Nicholls State - 7:00 PM ET Western Michigan -28 500
Western Michigan -

Colorado State - 7:00 PM ET Tulsa -13 500
Tulsa - Over 54 500

Texas - 7:00 PM ET Texas -8 500
Brigham Young - Over 56 500

Prairie View A&M - 7:00 PM ET Prairie View A&M +31 500
Texas State -

South Dakota - 7:00 PM ET Kansas -28.5 500
Kansas -

Lamar - 7:00 PM ET Lamar +28.5 500
Louisiana Tech -

Arkansas State - 7:30 PM ET Auburn -10.5 500 POD # 1
Auburn - Over 61.5 500

Austin Peay - 7:30 PM ET Austin Peay +47 500
Vanderbilt -

Montana State - 8:00 PM ET Montana State +10 500
Southern Methodist -

New Mexico - 8:00 PM ET New Mexico +7 500
Texas El Paso - Over 51 500

Central Arkansas - 8:00 PM ET Colorado -13.5 500 POD # 2
Colorado -

Notre Dame - 8:00 PM ET Notre Dame +5 500 POD # 6
Michigan - Under 50 500

Minnesota - 8:00 PM ET Minnesota -16 500
New Mexico State - Over 52 50

Hawaii - 8:00 PM ET Hawaii +27 500 POD # 5
Oregon State - Under 56.5 500

UC - Davis - 9:05 PM ET Nevada -19.5 500
Nevada -

Cal. Poly - SLO - 10:00 PM ET Fresno State -28.5 500
Fresno State -

Washington State - 10:30 PM ET Washington State +14.5 500
Southern California - Over 53.5 500

Arizona - 10:30 PM ET UNLV +11.5 500 POD # 4
UNLV - Over 61.5 500

San Jose State - 11:00 PM ET San Jose State +24.5 POD # 3 500
Stanford - Under 49 500

[LeRoy]

Nice day Bum stay HOT

[StarDust Bum]

Thanks Leroy......looking for a good day tomorrow also......

Good Luck to you and the rest of the gang who were on board today......

[StarDust Bum]

Week 2 Results and Total for the Year:

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

09/07/13 70-*37-*1 65.42% +*14650 Detail

09/06/13 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
09/05/13 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
09/02/13 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
09/01/13 4-*0-*0 100.00% +*2000 Detail

Totals 79-*42-*1 65.29% +16400

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports Saturday.......

13) Washington State 10, USC 7-- Lane Kiffin has a QB controversy, and it ain't good; his two QB's combined to go 11-21 for 54 yards passing in this dismal performance, including a pick-6 near the end of the first half that gave Wazzu its only TD. Thats right, Mike Leach won SU as a 15-point road dog in a game where his offense didn't score a TD. Alrighty then.

12) BYU 40, Texas 21-- What in the name of Robbie Bosco is going on here? BYU completed only 9-27 passes, but ran the ball for an school-record 550 yards-- let me repeat that, TEXAS GAVE UP 550 RUSHING YARDS TO BYU. Mack Brown becomes the early favorite to replace Lee Corso on the GameDay program if Mr Corso decides to retire after this season.

BYU QB Hill ran for 259 yards on 17 carries, 2nd-most by any D-I QB in the last ten years. Oy.

By the way, if you go to a BYU game, bring an umbrella; they've had lengthy weather delays in each of their first two games.

11) Miami 21, Florida 16-- Gators recruited Jeff Driskel instead of Teddy Bridgewater; whoops. Florida outgained Miami 413-212, but turned the ball over five times, three times in the red zone. Miami will be in the top 25 this week for the first time in three years.

10) Georgia 41, South Carolina 30-- Dawgs beat Carolina for first time in four years, as two SC assistant coaches got into a brief scuffle on the sideline, during the game. They're both defensive coaches-- the Gamecock defense had a very bad day, allowing 229 rushing yards, 309 passing.

9) Iowa 28, Missouri State 14-- Crowd of 64,201 in Iowa City was smallest for a Hawkeye home game in a decade. That can be bad for a head coach's job security, especially if that coach makes a whole lot of money.

8) Tennessee 52, Western Kentucky 20-- Hilltoppers turned ball over five times in a six-play span in the first quarter, which might amuse me if I hadn't picked them on this site. WKU trailed 31-3 before they punted, which has to be some kind of a record. They got within 31-17, then threw two more picks in Tennessee's end zone. Don't win a lot with seven turnovers.

7) Michigan State 21, South Florida 6-- Recruit a QB, Willie Taggart; USF was 6-26 passing for 66 yards, converted once on 13 third down plays. They lost to McNeese State last week by 30 points. McNeese State is I-AA.

6) Oklahoma State 56, Tex-San Antonio 35-- Cowboys tried onside kick while up 21 with 10:00 to go; T. Boone Pickens must've laid the 26 points.

5) Michigan 41, Notre Dame 30-- Highlight of this game was Eminem's appearance in the ABC booth during the second half; it raised awkward to a whole new level. NCIS star Mark Harmon was there too; Michigan honored his late dad Tom, who won the 1940 Heisman Trophy.

4) Oregon 59, Virginia 10-- Memo to Virginia coaches; Ducks went for two points after their first TD in their last two games LY; put your defense on the field and anticipate a fake. No one blocks extra points anyway.

Might also be good advice for Mike Shanahan Monday night; curious to see if the Eagles try any fake PATs with Chip Kelly their new coach.

3) Red Sox had been shut out in five of John Lackey's last 11 startts, so they took care of business early Saturday, racing out to a 10-2 lead in the 4th inning. Boston has scored 54 runs in its last four games, but Jacoby Ellsbury may also have a broken foot, which would be a very expensive fracture, since he is a free agent after this season.

2) Of the 25 guys on the Mets' Opening Day roster, only three have been on the active roster all year: Dillon Gee-Daniel Murphy-Latroy Hawkins. For a team with a $93M payroll, they're not very good, but at least they're not paying Vernon Wells $18M to play for another team, like the Angels are.

1) 1,034 optimistic humans entered LVH's football handicapping contest, the #1 football handicapping contest in the world- they pick five NFL games a week against the spread, with first place taking home $542,850.

Total prize pool, with a $1,500 entry fee, is a cool $1,551,000.

[StarDust Bum]

College football odds: Week 3 opening line report


The centerpiece of Week 3 of the NCAA football season is easily the Alabama Crimson Tide (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) at the Texas A&M Aggies (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS).

Peter Korner, founder of Nevada-based odds consultants The Sports Club, thinks Nick Saban and 'Bama will be more prepared this season.

"Knowing Alabama and knowing Saban, and this being a return matchup for them, I think they're going to be a bit more ready than Texas A&M," Korner told Covers.

Aggies' QB Johnny Manziel put up big stats against Sam Houston State in Week 2 with 403 yards and three TDs through the air and 36 yards rushing with one TD. The Aggies racked up 65 points in the rout, but should, perhaps, be alarmed with their defense. The Bearkats put up 28 points in the game, led by a stellar display from running back Timothy Flanders who tallied 170 yards on 19 carries and a pair of TDs.

Alabama, on the other hand, is coming off a bye week and defeated the Virginia Tech Hokies 35-10 in their Week 1 opener. Saban and the Crimson Tide will be out for revenge after their 29-24 defeat to Texas A&M one season ago.

"This was one of our toughest ones and will be a fun game to watch," says Korner. "We had a low of +3 and a high of +10.5 so we set the line at +7.5. I think Alabama is going to be a bit more ready for this one."

Here’s a look at a few other interesting games on the horizon, with help from Mr. Korner:

UCLA Bruins at Nebraska Cornhuskers (-4.5)

The Bruins (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) are another team coming off a bye week after a big 58-20 victory over Nevada in Week 1. Sophomore QB Brett Hundley was sharp going 22-for-33 for 274 yards passing and running for 63 yards - including a 37 yard TD scamper in the first quarter.

The Cornhuskers (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) throttled Southern Miss 56-13 in Week 2 after escaping with a 37-34 victory over Wyoming in Week 1.

"Nebraska always seems to be a betting favorite and we had anything from -3.5 to -7 and I put it at -4.5," says Korner. "It's going to be a very tight game and UCLA definitely has the tools to win this one straight up."

Tennessee Volunteers at Oregon Ducks (-28)

Chip Kelly may have left for the NFL, but the Oregon Ducks' (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) offense keeps on rolling. The Ducks are averaging 62.5 points per game through their first two matchups and are second in the country averaging 425 rushing yards per game.

The Volunteers (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) have gotten themselves off to a nice start, crushing the likes of Austin Peay and Western Kentucky. This will be their first real test however, and traveling up the Pacific northwest to face the Oregon attack is a tough task.

"We had this anywhere from -26 to -31 and I put it -28. I like this even higher," says Korner. "Oregon will do whatever they do and it will be fourth quarter time where it will probably be right around there and it will be up to Oregon whether they want to bomb them out or just coast."

Washington Huskies at Illinois Fighting Illini (+10)

The Washington Huskies (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) had a wonderful Week 1 victory over Boise State and had a week off to enjoy it. The Huskies should be very well prepared to go into Chicago's Soldier Field and attempt to knock off another big program.

A tough Week 1 victory over Southern Illinois was softened by a big win over Cincinnati in Week 2 and the Illini (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) will look to continue rolling in Week 3. They boast the 10th most passing yards per game (363.5) but Washington's defense stymied a potent Boise State team in Week 1.

"We had +7 to +10 here so I kept it on the topside at -10 with Washington," said Korner. "Illinois just isn't all that good."

[StarDust Bum]

College football line watch: Jump on BC +14 now

Each week during the college football season, renowned Las Vegas wiseguy and Covers Expert Bruce Marshall looks at the NCAAF odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

Boston College Eagles (+14) at USC Trojans

True, this number projected closer to three TDs a few weeks ago. But that was before we had a chance to take a look at the product the under-fire Lane Kiffin has put on the field this season at USC. And before the rumor mill began to really whirr in L.A., where some wise-guy Trojan backers are now joking that Nancy Grace might begin telecasting her HLN show from the SC campus until AD Pat Haden decides what to do with his coach. Thus, this matchup vs. BC becomes a litmus test for the “Reputation vs. Realty” theory, as the eye test through two weeks would hardly suggest the Trojans even being favored in this game. Expect more discounting of SC in the marketplace as the wagering public becomes keen to Kiffin’s five straight spread losses and 3-12 mark vs. the line since last season. And with the offense looking a mess (especially at QB) and Kiffin walking some very thin ice with dissatisfied SC boosters (and, at some point, we assume, AD Haden), we hardly see any appetite to “buy” on the Trojans, even from those who wear the Cardinal & Gold blazers. Remember, like an airline bankruptcy, it takes a while for the wagering public to come to the reality that former power program isn’t very good anymore, but we suspect the anti-SC sentiment is just revving up in the marketplace.

Meanwhile, the last memory of new HC Steve Addazio’s edition at BC was the impressive Friday night beatdown the Eagles inflicted upon Wake Forest, and in combo with the anti-Kiffin sentiment, this number should drop well below 2 TDs as the week progresses. BC supporters should grab the available 14s while they can.

Spread to wait on

Virginia Tech Hockies (-7.5) at East Carolina Pirates

A few years ago, we could always count on some VPI money showing up at windows of Las Vegas sports books as the Hokies became a lower-grade “public” team for HC Frank Beamer. Now, however, with only eight spread covers in their last 30 games dating to late in the 2010 season, pro-Hokie support in Vegas has disappeared faster than Mitt Romney after last November’s election. Early pricing on this Saturday’s matchup at East Carolina has Beamer laying a tick over 7 at most Nevada outlets. But with so many wagerers burned by VPI the past few years, expect some anti-Hokie money to show up soon, especially with close followers a bit intrigued by ECU and its gunslinger QB Shane Carden.

This price should move beneath the key number of 7 at some point later in the week. So, if looking to beat the crowd to a VPI resurgence and back the Hokies, you might as well wait for a few days, when it would be no surprise if the price dips below that very-key number of 7.

Total to watch

Vanderbilt Commodores at South Carolina Gamecocks

The marketplace usually reacts to pronounced team pointspread trends with a bit more vigor than it does to “totals” tendencies. Nonetheless, we are going to be intrigued if there is much “under” pressure at the Las Vegas sports books with this SEC matchup on Saturday at Williams-Brice Stadium. Both Vandy and South Carolina have already been involved in a couple of nationally-televised shootouts this season, but the recent series history between these two has been overwhelmingly to the “under” side, with none of the last four games even cracking a combined 30-point barrier, and “unders” 5-0-1 the last six meetings. In fact, the Dores and Gamecocks have not cracked this week’s early posted “total” of 50 since way back in 2005, when Jay Cutler was still throwing passes for Vandy.

The majority of “totals” moves have been upwards this season, but we’ll see how much emphasis the marketplace puts upon the low-scoring history between these two SEC East rivals, or if the public needs more current evidence to push this “total” downward.

[StarDust Bum]

See spot. See spot bet: This week's best spot bet opportunities

Spot bets are a classic handicapping practice that has proven profitable no matter what sport you’re betting. Whether it’s a team looking past this week’s opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots.

Lookahead spot

It was more of the same for the Indianapolis Colts in Week 1. A year after squeaking out so many close wins on last-minute drives, Indianapolis and QB Andrew Luck put together another come-from-behind victory versus Oakland Sunday.

Some say these nail bitters prove the Colts don’t belong in the Super Bowl conversation. Indy will get the chance to prove those doubters wrong when they tangle with San Francisco in Week 3. However, lurking in a potential lookahead spot are the Miami Dolphins in Week 2. Miami rolled Cleveland in its opener and its defense picked off three passes and forced two fumbles in the win. The Fins are getting a field goal on the road.

Letdown spot

One of the big shockers from Week 2 of the college football season was Illinois’ 45-17 thrashing of Cincinnati. Books had the Illini pegged as 7.5-point home underdogs before things took a bad turn for the Bearcats. The momentum swung when a Cincy TD run was called back in the third quarter and QB Munchie Legaux was knocked out of the game in the fourth.

Illinois took full advantage and heads into Week 3’s date with Washington at a surprising 2-0. Oddsmakers opened the Illini as 8-point home dogs and sharp money chased that spread all the way to +10.5. It seems the wiseguys are also expecting a letdown from Illinois in Week 3.

Schedule spot

The Pittsburgh Pirates wrap up a nine-game road trip with an interleague set against the Texas Rangers this week. The Pirates, reeling from a draining three-game series with the St. Louis Cardinals (going 0-3), will get no mercy from the Rangers or the scorching Texas sun.

Temperatures in Arlington are expected to hit the high 90s during the Bucs’ stay, especially during the final game of the series Wednesday. East Coast clubs have notoriously wilted in the Texas heat and you can expect Pittsburgh to be running on fumes during this interleague showdown.

[StarDust Bum]

Week 2 Rewind

September 10, 2013


On the night Michigan honored Heisman winner Tom Harmon, Devin Gardner wore the legendary quarterback’s No. 98 and led the Wolverines to a 41-30 win over Notre Dame in the final game (at least for now) of this storied rivalry.

Other than one bad play, an interception for a pick-six, Gardner was nothing short of sensational against the Irish. The junior QB threw for 294 yards and four touchdowns while also rushing for 82 yards and one TD. Jeremy Gallon hauled in eight receptions for 184 yards and three TDs.

Brady Hoke’s team covered the spread as a five-point favorite, improving to 16-0 straight up and 10-5 against the spread in home games on his watch. The Wolverines will play host to Akron as an enormous favorite in Week 3.

Notre Dame fell to 4-2 ATS as a road underdog during Brian Kelly’s tenure. The Irish is back on the road again Saturday at Purdue.

Despite a dominant performance from its defense, Florida couldn’t overcome five turnovers and lost a 21-16 decision at Miami as a three-point ‘chalk.’ Both schools saw the ‘under’ improve to 2-0 when the 37 combined points never threatened the 47-point total.

Miami QB Stephen Morris threw a pair of first-quarter TD passes and Duke Johnson put the game on ice with a short scoring run late in the fourth quarter. The Hurricanes went to 4-0 ATS as home underdogs during Al Golden’s tenure.

UF has only itself to blame for the gut-wrenching defeat. The Gators committed three turnovers in the red zone and were also stopped on downs at the UM 17. They wasted a special performance from a defense that limited Miami to just 10 first downs and 212 yards of total offense.

Will Muschamp’s team has an open date before facing Tennessee at The Swamp.

Georgia avoided a 0-2 start and snapped a three-game losing streak against South Carolina by winning a 41-30 decision over the Gamecocks as a 3.5-point home favorite. Aaron Murray finally delivered against a top-10 opponent, throwing for 309 yards and four TDs without an interception.

UGA hooked up its supporters thanks to a goal-line stand late in the fourth quarter. The 71 combined points soared ‘over’ the 56-point total, improving to 2-0 for the Bulldogs.

South Carolina fell to 14-10-1 ATS as a road underdog under Steve Spurrier. The Gamecocks can’t afford to look past Vanderbilt in Columbia this weekend.

Oregon has taken the cash in nine consecutive games as a road favorite after blasting Virginia 59-10 in Charlottesville. The Ducks covered as 26-point ‘chalk’ behind 321 yards (199 passing, 122 rushing) from sophomore QB Marcus Mariota, who opened the scoring on the initial drive with a 71-yard TD scamper.

BYU bounced back from a Week 1 loss at Virginia to spank Texas 41-20 as a seven-point home underdog. Taysom Hill rushed 17 times for 259 yards and three TDs, as the Cougars gashed the Longhorns for 549 yards on the ground.

After giving up 679 yards of total offense, Mack Brown reassigned defensive coordinator Manny Diaz and replaced him with Greg Robinson. As many bettors should recall, Robinson’s defenses at Michigan were a disaster when he served as Rich Rodriguez’s DC.

Brown isn’t the only coach feeling the heat. Lane Kiffin is rapidly losing support at USC after getting upset 10-7 by Washington St. The Trojans lost outright as 16-point home favorites, generating only 193 yards of total offense.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Oklahoma will start Blake Bell at QB Saturday vs. Tulsa. The ‘Belldozer’ will replace redshirt freshman Trevor Knight, who is out 1-2 weeks with a knee injury. Knight completed only 21-of-48 (43.8%) passes for 205 yards and was intercepted three times in two games. The Sooners failed to cover the number in a 16-7 win over West Va.

--Cincinnati senior QB Munchie Legauz is ‘out’ for the season after suffering a severe knee injury in a blowout loss at Illinois.

--Cincy’s loss at Illinois doesn’t help Louisville’s chances of getting to Pasadena. The Cardinals sure could use a UFC win Saturday at Penn St.

--Texas Tech’s Baker Mayfield is the first player at a BCS school to ever start a season opener at QB as a walk-on true freshman. His numbers after two starts: 71.1 completion percentage, 780 passing yards, 7/0 TD-INT ratio and a team-high 82 rushing yards.

--BYU senior WR Cody Hoffman returned to make two receptions for 68 yards in his team’s win over Texas. Hoffman missed the Week 1 loss at UVA with a hamstring injury.

--Northwestern star RB Venric Mark sat out Saturday’s 48-27 win over Syracuse with a lower body injury. With home games vs. a horrible Western Michigan team and Maine looming, the Wildcats could conceivably allow Mark to sit out and get healthy in these next two games. Then they have an open date before hosting Ohio St. on Oct. 5.

**Five Games to Watch**

1-UCLA at Nebraska -- Nebraska gave up 601 yards of total offense in its 37-34 season-opening win over Wyoming. The Cornhuskers are 18-17 ATS as home favorites under Bo Pelini following Saturday’s 56-13 win over So. Miss as 28-point ‘chalk.’ Going back to last season, the ‘over’ is on a 6-1-1 run in Nebraska’s last eight games. UCLA had an open date after trouncing Nevada, 58-20, as a 20.5-point home favorite. Looking for a sleeper Heisman candidate? Feast your eyes on sophomore QB Brett Hundley, who had 337 yards (274 passing 63 rushing) and four TDs (two apiece rushing and passing) against the Wolf Pack. The ‘over’ has hit in seven of UCLA’s last eight games. Kickoff is scheduled for noon Eastern on ABC.

2-Ole Miss at Texas -- The Rebels are hoping to avenge a 66-31 loss to Texas in Oxford last season. They are 5-1 ATS in six road games under Hugh Freeze. The Longhorns might be without starting QB David Ash, who left the BYU game with a head injury. Texas will definitely be without WR Daje Johnson due to an ankle injury. Ole Miss won’t have its best offensive lineman (Aaron Morris) and leading returning tackler (Denzel Nkemdiche) due to injuries. I can’t believe that I’m not going to be able to watch this game because of the Longhorn Network.

3-Tennessee at Oregon – The Ducks dealt out a ruthless beating when they went to Neyland Stadium in 2010 and emerged with a 48-13 victory. Just like three years ago, the Volunteers are breaking in a new coach. Butch Jones has led UT to back-to-back wins, including a 52-20 triumph over Western Kentucky as a 13-point home favorite. Oregon senior WR Josh Huff is ‘questionable’ with a leg injury. ABC will have the telecast a 3:30 p.m. Eastern.

4-Wisconsin at Arizona St. -- ASU will be seeking revenge for a 20-19 loss at Camp Randall in 2010. The Sun Devils, who were favored by 5.5 as of late Monday night, are 5-1 ATS as home favorites under Todd Graham. The Badgers have 45-0 and 48-0 home wins over UMass and Tennessee Tech, respectively. New Wisconsin coach Gary Andersen has a 13-2 spread record in his last 15 games going back to last season with Utah St.

5-Vanderbilt at South Carolina -- Vandy might be catching South Carolina in a good spot following its pivotal loss at Georgia. But the Commodores won’t have two of their best players in WR Chris Boyd (indefinite suspension) and LB Chase Garnham (leg). On the bright side, they have HC James Franklin and WR Jordan Matthews, who has 16 catches for 289 yards and two TDs. ESPN will have the telecast at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.