The Bum's Week # 1 NCAA Football Pod's !

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

-- Johnny Manziel is suspended for the first half of Texas A&M's game vs Rice Saturday. Whether that is the end of the drama, who knows?

-- Felix Hernandez gave up nine runs in three IP vs Texas; in his last five starts, he's allowed 22 runs in 27 IP.

-- Marlon Byrd hit a 3-run homer in his first game for the Pirates; he'll hit between McCutchen/Alvarez, pretty good spot in the Bucs' order.

-- Padres designated Edinson Volquez Sunday; looks like he will get picked up by the Dodgers to replace Chris Capuano in the rotation.

-- Yaisel Puig got pulled from Wednesday's game in the 4th inning, but they didn't say why, but he acts like he doesn't care a lot of the time. Stuff like this is why some scouts were wary of him despite his vast talent.

-- Is Casper Wells the first position player to pitch for two different teams in the same season? He's played for four different teams this year.


*****

Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Searching for the meaning of life...........

13) Orioles were an amazing 29-9 in one-run games LY, 25-14 in two-run games, so they were 54-23 in close games, 39-46 in all others.

This year, Baltimore is still strong in two-run games (15-5) but they’ve slipped to 14-24 in one-run games, so despite being much better in games decided by 3+ runs (41-32) this year, their record isn’t as good as LY, though you could make argument they’re actually a more talented team now.

12) Of the 22 kids in Georgia’s two-deep defensive depth chart, 8 are true freshmen, two others will also be playing their first college game Saturday. Dawgs have a very, very young defense.

11) August RBI leaders: Miguel Cabrera 31 (no surprise), Martin Prado 30 (big surprise).

10) Arizona-Boston-Philly are tied for MLB lead with 11 walk-off wins. D’Backs are 15-5 in extra inning games, 27-15 in one-run games.

9) Green Bay cut backup QB Graham Harrell this week, and Jets scooped him up, giving them five QBs on the roster; like Geno Smith, Harrell also played a while under Dana Holgorsen (at Texas Tech), so you wonder if he was brought in to help Smith some.

8) Over his last 106 IP, Atlanta closer Craig Kimbrel has allowed only 72 baserunners while striking out 177 batters.

7) Reggie Theus is now hoop coach at Cal-Northridge; one of his assistants used to be at Seton Hall which helps explain how Matadors just landed a transfer from South Orange, big guy Kevin Johnson, who averaged 2.9 ppg in the Big East LY. Kid like that could help in the Big West.

6) If you have DirecTV, CBS Sports Network is now Channel 221 (used to be 613) and Fox Sports 1 is 219. Good move to put all the like channels near each other.

5) Hard to believe, but the Tigers are 13-15 in Justin Verlander’s starts this season; 7-7 on road, 6-8 at home.

4) If you’re on Twitter and you want to laugh, follow pro wrestler Al Snow Guy comes up with some funny stuff almost every day.

3) Has to be exciting for a Pirate fan to see them adding players on August 27. They’re trying dammit; if Marlon Byrd plays like he did with the Mets, he’ll help them a lot.

2) It just looks odd to see that Bobby Hurley is the basketball coach at Buffalo; when I was in college, our school played in the same D-III league as the Bulls, and we were better than them. Buffalo’s current AD is the son of the Duke AD, so that move makes more sense once you know that.

1) Baseball rosters can expand Sunday, which gives contenders an edge, since losing teams aren’t going to spend the money to bring extra players up, when their season is already pretty much over. Lot of debate whether to keep this system or tweak it somehow. Baseball seems more open to change these days, and that’s mostly a good thing.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday, August 29

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Liberty - 6:00 PM ET Kent State -18.5 500 POD # 3
Kent State -

North Carolina - 6:00 PM ET South Carolina -11 500
South Carolina - Under 57 500

Presbyterian - 6:30 PM ET Presbyterian +37.5 500
Wake Forest -

Tulsa - 7:00 PM ET Tulsa +3.5 500 POD # 2
Bowling Green - Under 50 500

Illinois State - 7:00 PM ET Illinois State +11.5 500
Ball State -

Akron - 7:00 PM ET Akron +23 500 POD # 4
Central Florida - Over 55.5 500

Indiana State - 7:00 PM ET Indiana -25 500
Indiana -

UNLV - 7:00 PM ET Minnesota -14 500
Minnesota - Over 51.5 500

Southern Utah - 7:30 PM ET South Alabama -17.5 500
South Alabama -

Towson - 7:30 PM ET Connecticut -16.5 500
Connecticut -

Western Carolina - 7:30 PM ET Middle Tennessee -32.5 500
Middle Tennessee -

Utah State - 8:00 PM ET Utah State +2.5 500 POD # 1
Utah - Over 51.5 500

Jackson State - 8:00 PM ET Jackson State +25 500
Tulane -

Mississippi - 9:15 PM ET Vanderbilt +3.5 500 POD # 5
Vanderbilt - Over 53 500

Sacramento State - 10:00 PM ET San Jose State -18.5 500
San Jose State -

Rutgers - 10:30 PM ET Fresno State -10.5 500 POD # 6
Fresno State - Under 54.5 500

Southern California - 11:00 PM ET Hawaii +23.5 POD # 7 500
Hawaii - Over 54 500

[Kaptain]

gl this year BUM....thanks....lock and load

[StarDust Bum]

Right back at ya Kapt........

[StarDust Bum]

Friday's Betting Notes

August 28, 2013


**Western Michigan at Michigan State**

-- As of Monday, most betting shops had Michigan State installed as a 27 1/2-point favorite with a total of 44 1/2.

-- Mark Dantonio’s team finished 2012 with a disappointing 7-6 straight-up record to go with a 5-8 against-the-spread mark. The Spartans lost five games by a combined 13 points with their only lopsided defeat coming in a 20-3 home loss to Notre Dame.

-- Last season’s issues had nothing to do with the defense. This unit gave up only 16.3 points per game and held opponents to 19 points or fewer in four losses. This group will be stout again in 2013 with seven returning starters, including first-team All Big Ten linebacker Max Bullough, who had a team-high 111 tackles. Bullough also had 10 tackles for loss, 2.5 sacks, three QB hurries and one interception.

-- Michigan St.’s 2013 offense was pedestrian if not downright abysmal. The Spartans averaged only 20.0 PPG despite having a RB who ran for 1,793 yards. But Le’Veon Bell isn’t around anymore and Dantonio hasn’t been in any hurry to declare returning starting QB Andrew Maxwell as this year’s starter. Maxwell completed only 52.5 percent of his passes for 2,606 yards with a 13/9 TD-INT ratio in 2012.

-- Michigan St. compiled an atrocious 0-6 spread record as a home favorite last season. During Dantonio’s tenure, the Spartans are 14-20-1 ATS as home ‘chalk.’

-- Michigan St. starting junior offensive tackle Skyler Burkland is out for the season. Burkland started 11 of 12 games last season and participated in 775 plays. The defensive line could be thin in Week 1 due to the ‘doubtful’ status of nose tackles Lawrence Thomas (undisclosed) and James Kittredge (hernia).

-- Western Michigan went through its worst season since 2004 when it finished 4-8 both SU and ATS last season. This prompted the school to hand Bill Cubit a pink slip following an eight-year tenure.

-- P.J. Fleck is the new head coach. He is familiar with the MAC after a stellar playing career at No. Illinois, where he served on the coaching staff for three seasons. Fleck spent last season in the NFL on Tampa Bay’s staff.

-- Western Michigan returns five starters on offense and seven on defense. Tyler Van Tubbergen returns as the starting QB for his senior campaign. As a junior, Van Tubbergen split time with Alex Carder, throwing for 1,825 yards with a 15/11 TD-INT ratio.

-- Western Michigan will be without its best WR Jaime Wilson due to an ankle injury. Wilson, who had a team-high 67 receptions for 792 yards and six touchdowns last year, isn’t expected to be back until late September or early October.

-- Kickoff is slated for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on Friday night. The Big Ten Network will provide the telecast.

**Florida Atlantic at Miami**

-- As of Monday, most spots had Miami as a 32 1/2-point favorite with a total of 53 1/2.

-- Al Golden’s team can go to a bowl game for the first time since he took over in 2011. The Hurricanes finished 2012 with a 7-5 SU record and an 8-3-1 ATS mark. They return 10 starters on offense and eight on defense.

-- UM senior QB Stephen Morris threw for 3,345 yards with a 21/7 TD-INT ratio last season. Morris has his top three WRs back, including Phillip Dorsett and his 58 receptions for 842 yards and four TDs. Perhaps most important, the ‘Canes have dynamic sophomore RB Duke Johnson back in the fold. Johnson rushed for 947 yards and 10 TDs while averaging 6.8 YPC last year.

-- If Miami is going to have a shot at winning the ACC, it has got to improve on defense. This unit gave up 30.5 PPG in 2012.

-- Miami owns a 5-5 spread record in 10 games as a home favorite during Golden’s tenure.

-- Florida Atlantic enters its first season in Conference USA after limping to a 3-9 SU record last year. However, the Owls posted a profitable 8-4 ATS ledger. They return six starters on offense and nine on defense.

-- FAU went 6-1 ATS as a road underdog last season.

-- This is the first meeting between these schools.

-- ESPNU will provide television coverage at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.

**Texas Tech at SMU**

-- Most books are listing Texas Tech as a 5 1/2-point favorite with a total of 59 1/2.

-- Texas Tech has a new head coach in Kliff Kingsbury, who is the school’s second all-time leading passer and the youngest BCS coach in America. Kingsbury was Kevin Sumlin’s offensive coordinator at Texas A&M last season, helping Johnny Manziel win the Heisman Trophy.

-- Texas Tech finished 2012 with an 8-5 SU record and a 6-7 ATS mark. The Red Raiders beat Minnesota 34-31 at the Car Care Bowl, but they failed to cover as 13-point ‘chalk.’

-- Sophomore Michael Brewer was expected to take over as the new starter at the QB position. As a redshirt freshman, Brewer connected on 34-of-48 passes for 375 yards with four TDs and zero interceptions. However, a back injury has Brewer sidelined with two freshman QBs competing for the job. The winners will have one of the Big 12’s top WRs in Eric Ward, who had 82 receptions for 1,053 yards and 12 TDs last season. The Red Raiders also return their leading rusher, Kenny Williams, who had 824 rushing yards and five TDs while averaging 5.8 YPC.

-- Texas Tech returns five starters on offense and eight on defense.

-- Texas Tech owns a 5-0 spread record in its last five games as a road favorite.

-- In addition to Brewer, starting OG Tony Morales is ‘out’ with a shoulder injury. Also, starting WR/TE Jace Amaro has to sit out the first half due to a suspension. Amaro had 25 catches for 409 yards and four TDs last year.

-- SMU compiled a 7-6 SU record to go with an 8-5 ATS mark in 2012. The Mustangs ended the year on a high note by spanking Fresno St. 43-10 as 13-point underdogs at the Hawaii Bowl. They bring back six starters on offense and five on defense.

-- Senior QB Garrett Gilbert, a transfer from Texas, struggled early in his first season in June Jones’s offense. But Gilbert played much better late in the year and finished with 2,932 passing yards. His favorite target in 2013 will be Jeremy Johnson, who had 67 receptions for 679 yards and three TDs last season.

-- As a home underdog on Jones’s watch, SMU has posted an 8-3 spread record.

-- SMU has lost 14 in a row to Texas Tech in this rivalry.

-- Kickoff is slated for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

[StarDust Bum]

Friday, August 30

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Morgan State - 7:00 PM ET Morgan State +33 500 POD # 5
Army - Over 54.5 500 POD # 6

Samford - 7:00 PM ET Georgia State +7.5 500
Georgia State - Over 50.5 500

Western Michigan - 8:00 PM ET Western Michigan +27.5 500 POD # 4
Michigan State - Under 45 500 POD # 3

Florida Atlantic - 8:00 PM ET Florida Atlantic +31 500
Miami - Under 53.5 500

Texas Tech - 8:00 PM ET Texas Tech -5 500 POD # 1
Southern Methodist - Over 60.5 500 POD # 2

Southern - 8:30 PM ET Southern +40 500
Houston - Over 59.5 500

North Dakota State - 8:30 PM ET North Dakota State +14 500 POD # 6
Kansas State - Over 48.5 500

Northern Arizona - 10:00 PM ET Northern Arizona +33.5 500
Arizona - Under 64 500 POD # 7

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

-- NFL settled its concussion lawsuit with former players; will cost all 32 teams roughly $30M each. Legal experts say they got off pretty cheap.

-- Towson 33, UConn 18-- Hideous loss for Huskies, who were outgained 393-290, so it wasn't even a fluke. Still think if you lose to a I-AA team, it should make you automatically ineligible for a bowl game. Seriously.

-- Miguel Cabrera left with an abdominal injury, is day-to-day for Tigers.

-- Dennis Erickson is offensive coordinator at Utah; pretty good guy to be a college assistant coach. Utes beat Utah State 30-26; good ballgame.

-- In nine baseball games Thursday, only four teams scored 4+ runs.

-- Ole Miss 39, Vanderbilt 35-- Who needs preseason games? This was a tremendously exciting game where both teams took the leads with big plays in the last 2:00. It'll be a while before another game is this entertaining.
Late Night Update:

-- Rutgers-Fresno State combined for 1,085 yards of total offense, Fresno stops the Knights on a 2-point play, wins 52-51 in OT, in game that ended right at 3am here in the east.


*****

Armadillo: Friday's List of 13: Random stuff with long weekend here...........

13) Baseball GMs come from many different backgrounds. Theo Epstein (Cubs) went to Yale, Sandy Alderson (Mets) Harvard, Jon Daniels (Rangers) Cornell. Not sure when being an Ivy Leaguer made you GM material, but Brian Sabean (world champ Giants) went to Eckerd, Dave Dombrowski (Tigers) Western Michigan and Billy Beane (A’s) never went to college.

None of those Ivy Leaguers is a better GM than Beane, that’s for damn sure. (Full disclosure: Beane’s top assistant (David Forst) went to Harvard)

12) Hero of the Day. Dave Dombrowski’s wife is the former Karie Ross, undoubtedly the most attractive anchor (1988-90) in ESPN history. A former cheerleader at Oklahoma during the Barry Switzer era, she once did a remote from outside that Sooners’ locker room that started with Switzer having his arm around her (he was on crutches with a broken leg). For landing Ms Ross as his wife, Dombrowski is our Hero of the Day.

11) Theo Epstein’s sister was a writer for the TV show Homicide; his uncle and granddad wrote the screenplay for Casablanca.

10) If you combine the August stats of Dodger pitchers Kershaw-Greinke-Nolasco, you get 13-2, 1.30, and that doesn’t even include lefty Ryu, who is pretty good, too. Not sure why they went after Edinson Volquez, but they did- he’d have to be a reliever in the playoffs.

9) Yahoo.com points out that Oklahoma State’s football team has 67 players from Texas; the Longhorns have only two players from Oklahoma.

8) San Diego Chargers held their walkthrough this week on the aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan, which must’ve been an interesting experience.

7) Everyone Needs a Job Dept: Former Boston College hoop coach Al Skinner was hired was by former assistant Tim O’Shea to be an assistant coach at Bryant College.

6) Over the last four years, Felix Hernandez is 4-11, 4.69 against the Rangers; he is 0-4, 7.57 against them this year. He’s been pretty tough against everyone else; maybe he tips his pitches and Rangers are the only ones who picked it up.

5) Before training camp began, what were odds that Matt Simms would start a game at QB for the Jets? He wasn’t a starter in college (Tennessee) and the Vols weren’t very good when he was there.

4) Mostly Meaningless Stat Dept: Carolina Panthers’ 2013 opponents had a .543 winning %age last year, highest in NFL; Denver Broncos’ opponents (.430) had the worst.

3) Brooklyn Nets are having training camp at Duke; apparently, there are no cruddy, old arenas in the NY/NJ area, so they’re going to GM Billy King’s alma mater. Nets’ coach Jason Kidd beat Duke in the NCAAs when he was a player at Cal.

2) Further proof the LVH Sportsbook is the best one in Las Vegas; they have lines on all the college football games this weekend, even ones where I-A teams play I-AA teams. Plus they have excellent cheesesteak sandwiches and mini corn dogs in the deli in the back of the room.

1) As good a season as Dodgers are having, the next new pitcher (Volquez??) they use will be their 26th this season, most in franchise history.

[StarDust Bum]

FRIDAY, AUGUST 30

Game 149-150: Western Michigan at Michigan State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Michigan 77.866; Michigan State 97.121
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 19 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 27 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Western Michigan (+27 1/2); Over

Game 151-152: Florida Atlantic at Miami (FL) (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida Atlantic 64.085; Miami (FL) 99.430
Dunkel Line: Miami (FL) by 35 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: Miami (FL) by 32 1/2; 53 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (FL) (-32 1/2); Under

Game 153-154: Texas Tech at SMU (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas Tech 90.967; SMU 81.675
Dunkel Line: Texas Tech by 9 1/2; 55
Vegas Line: Texas Tech by 5 1/2; 59
Dunkel Pick: Texas Tech (-5 1/2); Under

[StarDust Bum]

Friday, August 30

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W MICHIGAN (4 - 8) at MICHIGAN ST (7 - 6) - 8/30/2013, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MICHIGAN ST is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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FLA ATLANTIC (3 - 9) at MIAMI (7 - 5) - 8/30/2013, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TEXAS TECH (8 - 5) at SMU (7 - 6) - 8/30/2013, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TEXAS TECH is 92-66 ATS (+19.4 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
SMU is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in a home game where the total is between 56.5 and 63 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

[StarDust Bum]

Friday, August 30

7:00 PM
SAMFORD vs. GEORGIA STATE
Samford is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Samford is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
No trends available

7:00 PM
MORGAN ST vs. ARMY
Morgan St is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Morgan St is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Army is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Army is 2-14 SU in its last 16 games

8:00 PM
FLORIDA ATLANTIC vs. MIAMI
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Florida Atlantic's last 6 games
Florida Atlantic is 4-21 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games
Miami is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home

8:00 PM
WESTERN MICHIGAN vs. MICHIGAN STATE
Western Michigan is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Western Michigan is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Michigan State is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Michigan State's last 8 games at home

8:00 PM
TEXAS TECH vs. SOUTHERN METHODIST
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Texas Tech's last 5 games when playing Southern Methodist
Texas Tech is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Southern Methodist
Southern Methodist is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Southern Methodist's last 5 games when playing Texas Tech

8:30 PM
NORTH DAKOTA STATE vs. KANSAS STATE
North Dakota State is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
North Dakota State is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Kansas State is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas State's last 6 games

8:30 PM
SOUTHERN U vs. HOUSTON
Southern U is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Houston is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games

10:00 PM
NORTHERN ARIZONA vs. ARIZONA
Northern Arizona is 1-18 SU in its last 19 games on the road
Northern Arizona is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Arizona's last 9 games
Arizona is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

[StarDust Bum]

NCAA line watch: Jump on Boise State now

Each week we'll look at the odds and tell you which one to bet now, bet later, and which totals to watch as the week plays out.

SPREAD TO BET NOW

BOISE STATE +4 at Washington

This number has been moving in U Dub’s direction ever since it was first posted in early June. Lots of hype for the Huskies, with an overreaction to their returning starter count, the re-christening of Husky Stadium, and the revenge angle versus Boise from the Las Vegas Bowl last December. Not to mention being a chic pick to emerge in the Pac-12 from many preseason publications. All very superficial arguments ignoring the fact that U Dub might have hit a plateau for head coach Steve Sarkisian, who is feeling a bit of heat to get his team above the 6 or 7-win level. Shrewd investors are taking a more cautious wait-and-see attitude with the Huskies. Now that the number has crashed through an expected resistance point at 3, however, grab the Broncos before the “sharps” jump in and trigger an expected buy-back on Boise to drop the price before kickoff. The wagering public will soon remember that Boise is 84-8 SU for HC Chris Petersen!

SPREAD TO WAIT ON

WASHINGTON STATE Plus at Auburn

This price has moved in Auburn’s direction with no resistance shown at 14, as the Tigers have been bet up to 15 and 15 ½ at many Las Vegas outlets. New Auburn HC Gus Malzahn is being given plenty of respect in the marketplace as he returns to the Plains, and some sharp SEC observers are on record as saying the Tigers could make a big jump from last year’s 3-9 disaster, which is contributing to the “buy” pressure and growing sentiment in the marketplace that Auburn is a team to watch. Meanwhile, Wazzu is flying well beneath the radar and is certainly no team du jour in the mind of the pundits after a disappointing effort a year ago for then-new HC Mike Leach, but the public is forgetting that the Cougs weren’t too much worse than Auburn a year ago. There is more run left in this Tiger price move; expect this number to climb some more and reach another key number at 17 later in the week, which is when some Cougar money will finally be tempted to jump into the fray.

TOTAL WATCH

WYOMING at NEBRASKA

College “totals” often make dramatic late-week moves and this matchup at Lincoln is an early candidate to adjust sharply. A handful of LV wagering outlets have posted a 65 on this game early in the week, but we expect the “total” to soar several points higher as the realization that both teams (especially Wyo) have defensive questions and each returns a prolific QB, Brett Smith for the Cowboys and Taylor Martinez for the Huskers. There’s nobody we know in Las Vegas who is thinking about an “under” in any game involving these two until further notice, so we advise a quick “over” purchase before the “total” climbs near (or above) 70.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 1

Friday's games
Michigan State won its last four games (3-1 vs spread) with Western Michigan, with three of four wins by 24+ points; last meeting was in 2010. Spartans were 0-6 as home favorites LY, are 20-30-1 in that role over last decade- they do have senior QB (13 starts) and four starters back on OL. Broncos are 8-13-1 as road dogs since ’08, 9-13-1 out of conference since ’07; they lost four starters on OL and have senior QB who has only eight career starts.

This will be Florida Atlantic’s Super Bowl, getting to play Miami week before ‘canes play Florida; teams haven’t met. Owls were 8-2 as dogs LY, after being 13-28-2 as road dogs from ’05-’11. Its certainly a road game but not a road trip for FAU, which has a new QB and three new starters on OL. Miami has senior QB (17 starts) and all five starters back on OL, so they’re looking for big things this year. ‘canes 5-5 as home favorites under Golden, 20-34 if you go back to ’03- they’re 5-8 vs spread in last 13 non-league games.

Texas Tech won last seven games with SMU, with six wins by 14+ points, but teams haven’t met since ’07; first game as Tech coach for former NFL QB Kingsbury, whose Red Raiders are 11-3-1 as road favorites since ’07, 8-4 out of conference since ’10. Mustangs have senior (25 starts) QB but three new starters on OL; they’ve covered six of last seven tries as home dog, with home side covering 12 times in last 16 games where SMU was an underdog. SMU is 11-8 in last 19 non-league games. Tech has new coach, new QB, three new starters on OL; road opener has to be at least a little dicey.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF Opening Line Report: Manziel worth at least 10 points

Calling this an “Opening Line Report” is a bit misleading in Week 1 of the college football schedule. Many of these spreads have been taking action for some time now.

But, for the sake of argument and for those who haven’t looked at a NCAAF spread since the BCS title game, we break down a few of the “opening lines” for the kickoff to the college season and get the low down on the odds from Las Vegas linesmaker Peter Korner.

Week 1 is the toughest set of odds to cook up, according to Korner, due to the fact oddsmakers have very little to go on for the 2013 season. Spreads and totals are based more on last year’s success, returning starters and coaches’ game plans.

“We really have no idea,” Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, tell Covers. “We put out our numbers, everyone else puts out theirs and we go from there. Week 1 and 2 are the toughest because we don’t have much to go on to gauge these teams.”

Rice Owls at Texas A&M Aggies (-27, N/A)

As of this writing, I imagine Johnny Manziel in a musty interrogation room with a searing light in his face, getting grilled by the NCAA fuzz. Oddsmakers - at least the ones hanging lines on this Week 1 opener - expect the Heisman winner to be on the field Saturday.

Korner sent out Texas A&M at -28 and most books followed suit with similar numbers. The Aggies are acting like Manziel will be taking snaps but if for some reason Autograph Gate turns “Johnny Football” into “Johnny Sideline”, Korner predicts this spread could swing as many as 10 points in the other direction.

“I expect him to be penalized in some way,” he says. “If he is out, I think he’s worth at least 10 points. He’s the team’s leading passer and rusher. That’s huge. It’s a big drop off and we’ve never really seen the guys in behind him. Texas A&M would still be a big favorite, though.”

USC Trojans at Hawaii Warriors (+21.5, 53.5)

Opening the season in Hawaii is more an extension of summer vacation than Week 1 of the schedule. The Trojans, for the first time in a long time, aren’t among the BCS favorites and some people may be selling Southern Cal short.

Korner sent out a suggested line of USC -23 for this Thursday night “Degenerate Special” (11 p.m. ET kickoff) and books trimmed that spread as low as -21.5. The Trojans will be without RB Silas Redd, who won’t make the trip due to a bum knee, but Korner thinks there is plenty of firepower on the USC depth chart.

“They should win big with their bench on the field,” Korner says of Southern Cal. “There will be plenty of scoring. We had the total much higher at 58.”

Southern Cal and Hawaii have played four times since 2003, topping the number in the first three meetings before staying under the 62-point total with a 49-10 USC win last season.

Georgia Bulldogs at Clemson Tigers (+2, 72)

This SEC-versus-ACC showdown is the crown jewel of the Saturday slate, pitting the No. 5 Bulldogs against the No. 8 Tigers.

Korner and his stable of oddsmakers submitted spreads of either Clemson -1 or Pick’em, eventually sending out the home side as a slight fave. The betting public is buying up the SEC representative, moving this spread to UGA -2.

“The spread isn’t going to matter in this game,” says Korner. “Whether it’s Clemson -1 or Georgia, I don’t think it will come into play. Whoever wins will cover. Georgia is the better team and would be a favorite on a neutral field but I’m not going to make them the favorite just because they’re from the SEC. 'SEC Bias', I don’t know what that means.

[StarDust Bum]

Beyond the BCS: Capping college football's small conferences

Some of the best betting value in college football is hiding beyond the BCS, in the small conferences. Each week, Covers Experts’ Doc’s Sports will look at the little programs that could help you make big cash this college season.

Team to watch: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

Week 1 odds: +4.5 vs. Kentucky

An intriguing matchup not only pits instate competitors against each other but also head coaches with new jobs: Western Kentucky’s Bobby Petrino vs. Kentucky’s Mark Stoops. Western Kentucky went to a bowl game for the first time last year and Willie Taggart promptly bolted for South Florida.

Enter Petrino, who will implement his pass-happy offense under a new starting quarterback Brandon Doughty. The Hilltoppers’ feature running back, though, is the same. Senior Antonio Andrews rushed 304 times for 1,684 yards and 11 touchdowns last season.

Western Kentucky, which beat host Kentucky 32-31 in overtime last September, is 4-0 ATS in its last four games against the SEC and 5-1 ATS in its last six non-conference dates. Petrino is 8-0 in season openers as a college head coach.

Team to beware: Bowling Green Falcons

Week 1 odds: -3.5 vs. Tulsa

Bowling Green returns 17 starters from a 2012 squad that compiled a respectable 8-5. Some of the personnel losses, however, are key. Defensive tackle Chris Jones (12.5 sacks) and linebacker Dwayne Woods graduated. On the other side of the ball, running back Anthon Samuel transferred to Florida International and offensive lineman Fahn Cooper also left in unexpected fashion.

Tulsa is a team that could capitalize on the absences of Jones and Woods in the middle of the Falcons’ defense. The Golden Hurricane finished ninth in the nation with 245.7 rushing yards per game last season while averaging 34.7 points per contest. Tulsa was 5-1 ATS in its last six games of 2012. Bowling Green, meanwhile, is 2-5 in its last seven contests out of conference.

Total team: Troy Trojans

Week 1 odds: 63 vs. UAB

The over was 4-0 in Troy’s last four home games of 2012 and 6-1 in the team’s last seven contests overall. Looking back long term, the Trojans have gone over the total 21 times in their last 28 non-conference games. They host UAB Saturday and it looks like another non-conference date that should go over the total of 63.

Corey Robinson, already the most accomplished quarterback in Troy history with at 3,000 passing yards in each of his first three seasons, is back for his senior campaign. On the other side of the ball, Troy allowed 30.5 points and 443.6 yards per game last year. Its defensive unit returns only four starters, which may be a good thing in the long run, but not for Week 1 of the season. The Trojans beat the Blazers 39-29 in 2012 and another shootout can be expected.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Friday, August 30

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Friday's NCAAF action: What bettors need to know
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Western Michigan Broncos at Michigan State Spartans (-28, 44.5)

Michigan State’s offensive identity remains a mystery heading into its season opener on Friday against visiting Western Michigan, which was picked to finish fifth in the MAC’s West Division. Fortunately for the Spartans, their vaunted defense again should rank among the nation’s best this season. Even with an offense that’s a work in progress, Michigan State figures to be a difficult matchup for the Broncos and 32-year-old first-year head coach P.J. Fleck.

Spartans head coach Mark Dantonio held an open competition at quarterback before finally naming senior Andrew Maxwell as his starter on Tuesday, but sophomore Connor Cook also is expected to play in the season opener. Thanks to a forgiving early-season schedule, Michigan State has some time to figure out its offense before visiting Notre Dame on Sept. 21. The Spartans should be able to rely on their defense to get past Western Michigan, which faces three Big Ten teams in the first four weeks.

Key betting stat: Broncos are 1-8 ATS in their last nine vs. Big Ten.

Florida Atlantic Owls at Miami Hurricanes (-31.5, 53.5)

With expectations on the rise, Miami looks to begin its season in impressive fashion when Florida Atlantic visits on Friday night. Al Golden, starting his third season as the Hurricanes’ coach, admitted this week that he has “a lot of concerns” about his team, even though Miami is the preseason favorite to win the ACC Coastal Division. Those concerns do not include senior quarterback Stephen Morris, who is coming off a terrific 2012 season.

Morris passed for 3,345 yards last year – the fifth-highest single-season total in Hurricanes history. In his final four games, Morris completed 60 percent of his passes for 1,131 yards with 11 touchdowns and no interceptions. In addition to Morris, Florida Atlantic will have its hands full with Duke Johnson, Miami’s electrifying running back who racked up 2,060 all-purpose yards as a freshman last season.

Key betting stat: Under is 42-19-1 in Hurricanes' last 62 home games.

Texas Tech Red Raiders at SMU Mustangs (+4, 59.5)

Texas Tech coach Kliff Kingsbury won’t be alone in making his debut in a high-profile role Friday at SMU. The Red Raiders are expected to rotate freshmen quarterbacks Davis Webb and Baker Mayfield as projected starter Michael Brewer is battling a back injury. Kingsbury, who guided Johnny Manziel to the Heisman Trophy as the offensive coordinator at Texas A&M last season, turned 34 earlier this month but remains the second-youngest active head coach in college football.

SMU will have an experienced quarterback operating its pass-heavy offense. Garrett Gilbert spent parts of three seasons at Texas - starting every game in 2010 - and is pegged to lead the Mustangs for a second straight year. Cutting down on turnovers will be key as Gilbert helps transition SMU into the newly formed American Athletic Conference. He committed five turnovers after taking over for injured starter Colt McCoy in the loss to Alabama in the 2010 BCS title game, was intercepted 17 times as the starter the following year and picked off 15 times last season.

Key betting stat: Mustangs are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 vs. Big 12.

North Dakota State Bison at Kansas State Wildcats (-13)

Kansas State briefly flirted with an undefeated season and a spot in the BCS Championship Game last season behind quarterback and Heisman Trophy finalist Collin Klein before settling for the Big 12 title. Klein is gone, along with most of the defensive front seven, giving the Wildcats a new look when they begin the 2013 campaign by hosting North Dakota State on Friday. The Football Championship Series power is trying to knock off an FBS school for the fourth straight season.

The Bison have claimed back-to-back FCS Championships and won at Kansas in 2010, versus Minnesota in 2011 and at Colorado State in 2012. The experienced squad takes on a Kansas State team that is going into the season unranked despite a BCS Bowl appearance in January. The Wildcats still are trying to settle on a starting quarterback as Jake Waters and Daniel Sams battle for the position.

Key betting stat: Over is 9-1 in Wildcats' last 10 home games.

Southern Jaguars at Houston Cougars (-40)

The Houston Cougars begin what they hope will be a bounceback season in the new American Athletic Conference when they host Southern University in the opener for both teams Friday at Reliant Stadium. After a 13-1 record and a TicketCity Bowl win in 2011, Houston stumbled to a 5-7 mark last year in head coach Tony Levine's first full season. However, the Cougars return 10 starters from an offense that averaged 32.4 points.

Junior quarterback David Piland is back for a third year under center after producing 2,929 passing yards and 16 touchdowns last season, the program's last in Robertson Stadium. He will lead a squad that will play its home games at three different locations before moving into a new stadium in 2014. Southern, which has not had a winning campaign since 2009, is entering its first full season under head coach Dawson Odums, who served on an interim basis for the final nine games in 2012.

Key betting stat: Over is 6-2 in Cougars' last eight Friday games.

Northern Arizona Lumberjacks at Arizona Wildcats (-34.5)

A pair of running backs will be in the spotlight when Arizona hosts Northern Arizona on Friday. Arizona junior Ka'Deem Carey led the nation in rushing yards (1,929) in 2012 and Northern Arizona senior Zach Bauman, a 2013 nominee on the Walter Payton Award watch list, is coming off his third consecutive 1,000-yard season. The Wildcats and Lumberjacks last met in 2011, with the Wildcats scoring an easy 41-10 victory in coach Rich Rodriguez's Arizona debut.

Both teams are replacing their starting quarterbacks. Cary Grossart, a two-year starter for Northern Arizona, leaves as the school's all-time leader in completion percentage (66.3). Arizona is in the process of finding a successor to Matt Scott, who ranked second in the Pac-12 in completions (301) and passing yards (3,620) last season.

Key betting stat: Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last six Friday games.