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**StarDust Bum** · 07-29-2013, 11:08 AM

Preseason Report - Part II

July 26, 2013

In my first installment, I touched on some great angles that I’ve been following and cashing for plenty of seasons. In this piece, I’ve listed some new developing trends from the last few preseasons.

Baltimore Ravens – The usual letdown from the Super Bowl champs should be apparent this preseason, and add in of what I spoke about above with the training camp rule changes – I can see the Ravens playing higher scoring games this preseason. This trend showed up big time last year with three of the four preseason Baltimore games going Over the posted total.

Buffalo Bills - The Bills have started a money making preseason trend the last three years having seen the Over be the winning side in their last three dress rehearsal games with 38-7, 35-32, and 35-20 finals. This year’s dress rehearsal game is against the Redskins on Aug. 24th. I have to add here that Washington in their last 2 dress rehearsal games have seen a combined 112 points scored - So this play can turn into a preseason double unit play here on the Over.

Carolina Panthers – The Panthers have started a solid trend to look for in their first preseason game – it’s apparent that their coaching staff thru the years has put less emphasis on this first game as Carolina is on a five-year run going 0-5 ATS to start the preseason. This year’s opening game will be against a Bears team on Aug. 9 whom will have a new head coach in Marc Trestman who may be looking to impress with a win in his first career game as head coach.

Cincinnati Bengals – The Bengals used to be a team that always played hard in their last preseason game – however maybe it was because they just were playing against a Colts squad back then that just didn’t try in these meaningless preseason games. However in the past three years the Bengals have gone 0-3 against the spread. Something to watch for as once again Cincinnati finishes up with Indianapolis on Aug. 29 as Pagano seems like he wants to win these games.

Dallas Cowboys - We have some history to look back on here as in 2010 the Cowboys played against the Bengals in the Hall of Fame game. The Dallas offense could just manage three field goals and were held out of the end zone. Romo just played part of the first quarter and threw for just 59 yards. So I look for another conservative game plan from the Cowboys here - What really makes me like another lower scoring game in this spot here is that head coach of the Dolphins Joe Philbin came out last year in the Dolphins first preseason game and also used a vanilla offense game plan as Miami could only put up seven points on the scoreboard. This game has Under written all over it.

Plus one last think to mention here is that the last time the Cowboys played in the Hall of Fame game and played five preseason games – they sure didn’t try defensively in their final and fifth preseason game as 52 points were scored. Again something to look for this year as they play a Texans team on Aug. 29 that tends to play higher scoring games in their last preseason game.

Denver Broncos – Since coming over to Denver – John Fox has definitely had the Broncos ready to start the preseason as the result of both of his opening games had the Broncos and the Over being the winning sides - with Denver scoring a combined 55 points and both of these games were on the road. Denver opens up again on the road this year against the 49ers – So the Broncos will be a very live ‘dog in this spot.
However Fox sure hasn’t cared if the Broncos won in their dress rehearsal games as both have been losing efforts against the San Francisco and Seattle. This year’s dress rehearsal game will be on the Aug. 24 against the Rams.

Detroit Lions – The Lions have been a solid play in the preseason as of late going a solid 9-3 over the last three seasons – Plus if we get a closer look Detroit has finished the preseason strong going a perfect 3-0 in Game 4 of the preseason. This season the Lions finish up at Buffalo on Aug. 29th.

Green Bay Packers - Under head coach Mike McCarthy a solid trend has been in effect for years that has seen the Packers incorporate a wide-open game plan over the past six years that has seen the Over go an impressive 16-8 in the preseason. Last year this trend showed a backward trend – which I feel is good for us as I see the oddsmakers lowering these Green Bay totals some this year. You just watch have the Packers come out to start the preseason this year on both sides of the ball.

Houston Texans – The Texans seem to be fitting in nicely with the new CBA restrictions for the preseason as in the last two years the Kubiack lead Texans have gone 6-2 against the spread. Plus they are a perfect 4-0 in their first two preseason games of the year. This year Houston’s first two games will be against Minnesota on Aug. 9, and then against Miami at home on Aug. 17.

Indianapolis Colts – The Colts always never tried in these preseason games going back to when Dungy was the head coach, and were a definite fade candidate every year. However when Chuck Pagano was hired as head coach last season things sure changed – as the Colts went 3-1 against the spread while scoring 114 points in the process – which also saw the Over go 3-1. Something to watch this preseason as I feel the oddsmakers will still be releasing lines based on the Colts prior losing ways in the preseason.

Miami Dolphins – As always when a new head coach is hired we take a step back to see if we can find any preseason trends that we can make some money on. Well with Joe Philbin taking over as the Dolphins coach last season – we sure may have found a strong trend to watch for this preseason – as the Philbin lead Dolphins went a perfect 0-4 both straight up and against the spread last year. Strong watch here especially if the Dolphins start the preseason slow again.

Minnesota Vikings - With Leslie Frazier now settled in as head coach of the Vikings an early preseason trend has developed with the new CBA rules now in effect. Frazier’s style seems to not put much into the first preseason game for the Vikings – however in game #2 it looks like he tries to win this game – as in the past 2 preseason the Vikings are 0-2 in game #1 – while going 2-0 in Game 2. This year the Vikings open up against Houston on Aug. 9th – then head to Buffalo for Game 2.

New York Giants – A solid money-making trend has shown up for the Giants as of late as Tom Coughlin in the past three years has seemed to want to get the Giants last preseason done with in a hurry, which has produced three straight low-scoring games and the undergoing a perfect 3-0. So let’s look for the same result here as Bill Belichick seems very happy to play this kind of game in this scenario when the Giants and Patriots hook up on Aug. 29.

New York Jets – For the other New York team we have another strong trend that can make us some money this preseason – however this one is in the Jets first preseason game of the year – as head coach Rex Ryan has never liked playing this first preseason game, and I feel the new CBA rules have really effected the Jets a lot – as with reduced hitting in workouts it hurts the Jets physical style especially in Game 1 where the Jets under Ryan are a perfect 0-4 against the spread. Look for more of the same here this year as the Jets open up against a Lions team that likes to win their preseason games.

New Orleans Saints – Strong preseason trend we can follow with the Saints as their high-octane offense sure gears up as the preseason progresses. In the past three seasons the Saints have seen the over go a perfect 6-0 in their last 2 preseason games of the year with 51, 57, 60, 41, 51, and 61 points scored. This year the Saints finish up Houston on Aug. 25 and Miami on the Aug. 29.

Oakland Raiders – This Raiders write-up really should be in my favorite preseason trends – however I’ll leave it in this section for now – Oakland no matter who the head coach is always seem to finish the preseason on a down note – as in the past six years they are a perfect 0-6 against the spread in their last preseason game of the year. This year’s finale for the Raiders is on Aug. 29 against the Seahawks. Just to show you how bad the Raiders have been in this scenario lately the Seahawks have outscored them 41-6 the past two years.

Pittsburgh Steelers –In Part I of my report, I talked about how the new CBA preseason rules would affect the physical teams in the league, and the Steelers definitely fit into this mold. The change in style was apparent in last year’s preseason as the usually lower-scoring Pittsburgh games – showed a complete turnaround as the Steelers played three high-scoring games and ended the preseason seeing the Over go 3-1. With the oddsmakers still leaning towards the old trends for the Steelers will give us some solid value plays on the over this preseason.

San Francisco 49ers – With the 49ers just falling short in last year’s Super Bowl we may see a lackluster effort from them this preseason. However with Jim Harbaugh their head coach a repeat of last year’s preseason may be on the horizon where the 49ers went 3-1 both straight up and against the spread. Just watch how San Francisco comes out of the gate this preseason to get a gear on what mindset they have.

Seattle Seahawks - The new rules sure haven’t affected Pete Carroll and the Seahawks – as Seattle over the past two preseasons have gone 7-1 against the spread. Only thing to watch out for this year is that they will be without their sharp defensive coordinator Gus Bradley.

St. Louis Rams – The Rams will be a team to watch this preseason as Jeff Fisher always took the preseason seriously when he was with the Titans, and this sure carried over to the Rams in his first season with them as the Rams went 3-1 against the spread last year. Plus I also have to note here is that St Louis saw the Over go 3-1 in their four preseason games a year ago.

Tennessee Titans – Not too much to look at in Mike Munchak’s start of his coaching career in Tennessee – However I did find that the Titans as a underdog under Munchak have gone 3-1 against the spread the past two years.

Washington - Mike Shanahan has always taken these preseason games seriously, and a strong trend has developed since his return with the Redskins, and that is that Washington is a perfect 3-0 in their dress rehearsal game since Shanahan has returned dominating their opponent in all three of these games. Washington’s dress rehearsal game this year is against the Bills on Aug. 24.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-29-2013, 11:11 AM

Preseason Report - Part III

July 26, 2013

In Part I and II of the Preseason Report, we discussed trends for teams and more importantly, their coaches. As mentioned before, coaching is a key factor in the preseason and you should be aware of this year's head coaching changes. This season we have eight coaching changes coming into the 2013 season.

Here is this year's list:

Arizona - Bruce Arians - was the former Indianapolis Colts offensive coordinator - Arians filled in for head coach Chuck Pagano while he battled leukemia, and went 9-3 in his absence.

Buffalo - Doug Maronne - Syracuse head coach for the past 4 years - his prior NFL experience was with the New Orleans back in 2008 as the Saints offensive coordinator.

Chicago - Marc Trestman - Former coach of the Montreal Alouettes - NFL experience as an Offensive coordinator for the 49ers and Raiders.

Cleveland - Rob Chudzinski - Offensive coordinator of the Carolina Panthers - however the offense will be turned over to Norv Turner.

Jacksonville - Gus Bradley - Former defensive coordinator the last four seasons of the league-leading Seahawks defense.

Kansas City - Andy Reid - head coach of the Eagles the last 14 years.

Philadelphia - Chip Kelly - head coach of the Oregon Ducks - offensive genius of the Ducks high octane offense - first NFL coaching job.

San Diego - Mike McCoy - is the former Broncos offensive coordinator for the Broncos and helped lead Denver to the playoffs the past two seasons with two totally different quarterbacks' styles.

Here are each teams Quarterback Rotations for this Preseason (R - Rookie):

Arizona - Carson Palmer, Drew Stanton, Ryan Lindley, Caleb TerBush (R - Purdue)

Atlanta - Matt Ryan, Dominique Davis, Sean Renfree (R - Duke), Seth Doege (R - Texas Tech)

Baltimore - Joe Flacco, Tyrod Taylor, Caleb Hanie

Buffalo - Kevin Kolb, EJ Manuel (R - Florida State), Jeff Tuel (R - Washington State)

Carolina - Cam Newton, Derek Anderson, Jimmy Clausen, Colby Cameron (R - La. Tech)

Chicago - Jay Cutler, Josh McCown, Matt Blanchard

Cincinnati - Andy Dalton, John Skelton, Josh Johnson, Zac Robinson

Cleveland - Brandon Weeden, Jason Campbell, Brian Hoyer

Dallas - Tony Romo, Kyle Orton, Aaron Corp

Denver - Peyton Manning, Brock Osweiler, Zac Dysert (R - Miami, OH), Ryan Katz (R - San Diego State)

Detroit - Matthew Stafford, Shaun Hill, Kellen Moore

Green Bay - Aaron Rodgers, Graham Harrell, B.J. Coleman

Houston - Matt Schaub, T.J. Yates, Stephen McGee, Case Keenum

Indianapolis - Andrew Luck, Matt Hasselbeck, Chandler Harnish

Jacksonville - Blaine Gabbert, Chad Henne, Mike Kafka, Matt Scott (R - Arizona)

Kansas City - Alex Smith, Chase Daniel, Tyler Bray (R - Tennessee), Ricky Stanzi

Miami - Ryan Tannehill, Matt Moore, Pat Devlin

Minnesota - Christian Ponder, Matt Cassel, McLeod Bethel-Thompson, James Vandenberg (R - Iowa)

New England - Tom Brady, Ryan Mallett, Tim Tebow

New Orleans - Drew Brees, Seneca Wallace, Luke McCown, Ryan Griffin (R - Tulane)

New York Giants - Eli Manning, David Carr, Ryan Nassib (R - Syracuse), Curtis Painter

New York Jets - Mark Sanchez, Geno Smith (R - West Virginia), Greg McElroy, Matt Simms

Oakland - Matt Flynn, Terrelle Pryor, Tyler Wilson (R - Arkansas)

Philadelphia - Michael Vick, Nick Foles, Matt Barkley (Rookie - USC)

Pittsburgh - Ben Roethlisberger, Bruce Gradkowski, John Parker Wilson, Landry Jones (R - Oklahoma)

San Diego - Philip Rivers, Charlie Whitehurst, Brad Sorensen (R - Southern Utah), Mike Hermann (R - RPI)

San Francisco - Colin Kaepernick, Colt McCoy, Scott Tolzien, B.J. Daniels (R - South Florida)

Seattle - Russell Wilson, Brady Quinn, Tarvaris Jackson

St. Louis - Sam Bradford, Kellen Clemens, Austin Davis

Tampa Bay - Josh Freeman, Mike Glennon (R - N.C. State), Dan Orlovsky, Adam Weber

Tennessee - Jake Locker, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Rusty Smith, Nathan Enderle

Washington - Robert Griffin III (Will not play in preseason), Kirk Cousins, Rex Grossman, Pat White

**StarDust Bum** · 07-30-2013, 01:38 AM

Three things NFL bettors should watch during training camps

Football bettors got their first earful of NFL training camp noise this weekend. While the sports networks and talk radio waves are jammed packed with tidbits from camp, most of this information can be discarded, according to our Covers Experts.

But, there are some things pro handicappers keep close tabs on during NFL training. We asked our wiseguys what has their attention this summer:

Injuries

The injury bug bit hard in the first few days of training camp. The Denver Broncos lost starting center Dan Koppen for the season to a torn ACL and Jacksonville Jaguars QB Blaine Gabbert was carted off the field after spraining his ankle.

The Seattle Seahawks could be without new WR Percy Harvin for a while after he suffered a slight tear in his labrum and the Philadelphia Eagles won’t have WR Jeremy Maclin for 2013 after he tore his ACL.

“I just watch for injuries especially those on the offensive line,” says a capper for Doc’s Sports. “Having a banged-up line creates major issues for the quarterback and running back and it may take a few weeks for the backups to get up to par. If a team suffered a key offensive line injury it may be worth a look fading that team the first couple of weeks.”

NFC East bettors will also be keeping a watch on Robert Griffin III’s wonky knee and if the Washington Redskins’ dynamic QB will be ready to go – or even at 100 percent – come the season opener versus Philadelphia on Monday Night Football.

New coaches, new schemes

Eight teams have a new head coach, 13 have a new offensive coordinator and a dozen squads welcome a new defensive coordinator. Paying attention to how these teams adapt to their new coaches can pay off when Week 1 rolls around.

“When new OCs and DCs are brought in, it's usually because of either a new head coaching change or a change made out of necessity,” says pro capper Marc Lawrence. “They often times bring new playbooks, and as a result there is a new learning curve on each side of the ball.”

The most notable coaching swap was the Eagles’ hire of former Oregon skipper Chip Kelly, who brings his high-octane offense to the pros. Other teams and new hires under the microscope are the Cleveland Browns and new OC Norv Turner and Monte Kiffin calling the defensive shots in Dallas.

“This season there are a lot of interesting story lines involving new schemes for teams,” says Doc’s Sports. “Dallas is switching back to a 4-3 defense after nearly a decade in the 3-4. And not just any 4-3, but a Cover-2 scheme, which has seemingly fallen out of favor in recent seasons.”

Bettors should also make note of current NFL coaches on the hot seat and their demeanor heading into training camp. Covers Expert Bruce Marshall points the finger at Detroit Lions head coach Jim Schwartz, who is coming off a disappointing 4-12 SU and 6-10 ATS. Marshall says the fear of losing their job can motivate these coaches to pull out all the stops in the early season, and even press for victories in the preseason.

Quarterback situations

There are plenty of QB controversies brewing after the first weekend of training camp.

Of course, the New York Jets’ highly-publicized battle between Mark Sanchez and rookie Geno Smith has hogged the headlines this summer. But Buffalo, Philadelphia, Oakland and Jacksonville also have some tough calls to make under center.

“These are the teams where there's no true starter named yet,” says Covers Expert Will Rogers. “Whoever emerges will obviously have a significant impact on that team's respective season.”

Some cappers tab specific No. 1 quarterbacks and track their progress through training camp. Covers Experts’ Will Rogers has eyes for Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Josh Freeman and how hot his coaching staff is for him at the end of the summer.

“Rumor has it that the current coaching staff isn't in love with him, and why should they be given the way he finished last season?,” says Rogers. “They drafted Mike Glennon out of NC State as well, making matters more dicey.”

**StarDust Bum** · 07-31-2013, 11:06 AM

NFL preseason betting: Teams with the most QB depth

Handicapping preseason NFL action is a lot like picking winners on the baseball diamond. So much of your wager is riding on one position. In MLB, it’s the starting pitcher. In the NFL preseason, it’s the quarterback – or should we say quarterbacks.

Finding teams with starting experience on the depth chart is key to cashing in during the preseason. Starting QBs may only see a handful of tosses through the first two tune-up games, leaving passing duties to the second, third and sometimes fourth-string pivot.

Here are four teams who hold their preseason betting value long after the No. 1 QB takes off his helmet:

Philadelphia Eagles

QBs: Michael Vick, Nick Foles, Matt Barkley, Dennis Dixon

New head coach Chip Kelly has been working out his platoon of passers this summer, trying to find which QB best suits his up-tempo offense. Vick and Foles split time as the No. 1 last year and there is a movement lobbying for Barkley to take over the offense. Dixon could actually slide into the No. 3 spot if the Eagles drop Vick or Foles following camp.

Cincinnati Bengals

QBs: Andy Dalton, Josh Johnson, John Skelton, Zac Robinson

Dalton is maturing into one of the AFC’s best passers and has some experience behind him on the depth chart. Johnson has starts under his belt, going back to his days with Tampa Bay, and Skelton started 17 games in three years with Arizona. Robinson is currently out of action due to injury, so the preseason load could be spread amongst the top three QBs on the depth chart.

Seattle Seahawks

QBs: Russell Wilson, Brady Quinn, Tarvaris Jackson

Wilson’s sublime rookie campaign has the Seahawks looking to air it out a little more in 2013. However, Seattle may be without offseason addition WR Percy Harvin for the year and will use the preseason to fill that void in the WR corps. Quinn had 12 starts during this tenure in Cleveland and was the No. 1 for eight games in Kansas City last year. Jackson has 34 career starts, including 14 with Seattle in 2011.

Houston Texans

QBs: Matt Schaub, T.J. Yates, Case Keenum, Stephen McGee

Schaub passed for more than 4,000 yards, starting all 16 games for the Texans last year. Yates picked up starting stripes when Schaub got hurt in 2011, taking first-team snaps in five regular season games and two postseason performances. Keenum hasn’t seen any regular season action but has a stud passing pedigree, breaking records during this college days. McGee was buried on Dallas' depth chart for a few seasons but was actually impressive when he did get time under center.
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**StarDust Bum** · 07-31-2013, 11:07 AM

Three most profitable NFL preseason bets

Wagering on NFL preseason games is the sports bettors’ guilty pleasure. Like eating that pizza with the hot dog stuffed inside the crust, it may feel good at the time but you’re going to pay for it later.

I found myself betting on the NFL preseason during a trip to Las Vegas last August. I cashed in a small wager on the San Diego Chargers over the Green Bay Packers, cheering for Bolts backup QB Jarrett Lee to come through for me in crunch.

And therein lies the problem with betting on preseason games. My wager was weighing on the play of a quarterback who’s bagging groceries as the 2013 preseason approaches.

But, if you’re weak like me and need to get down something after months and months of pigskin-less play, these three teams have made the most preseason profits since 1995.

Seattle Seahawks (41-27 SU, 39-26-3 ATS)

The Seahawks’ 4-0 SU and ATS 2012 preseason was a forerunner for their regular season success, unearthing QB Russell Wilson as the steal of the NFL Draft. Seattle was a favorite in three of those four games and a short 1-point underdog in the other.

This year, the Seahawks have high expectations and are among the Super Bowl favorites. Seattle opens the tune-up schedule in San Diego, where oddsmakers have them set as a pick’em. The Seahawks will be busy auditioning WRs after losing Percy Harvin for what could be the entire season.

New York Jets (41-26 SU, 38-28-1 ATS)

The Jets entered last summer as the best preseason play since 2005, then proceeded to go 0-4 SU and ATS. New York was outscored 88-31 over those four warmup games, exposing a limp-noodle offense that would finish 30th in the NFL during the regular season.

It’s more of the same for Jets fans this offseason. Mark Sanchez is fighting off rookie Geno Smith for the starting gig. Reports out of camp say Smith is out of shape, which erases his athletic edge over the competition. New York kicks off the preseason slate in Detroit as 3.5-point road underdogs.

Denver Broncos (42-26 SU, 38-28-2 ATS)

The Broncos went 2-2 SU and ATS in last year’s preseason, being the most anticipated team due to the acquisition of Peyton Manning. Denver enters Year 2 with No. 18 under center and is working in some new weapons like WR Wes Welker and rookie RB Montee Ball.

The elephant in the room this preseason, however, is the Broncos offensive line. Center Dan Koppen went down with an ACL injury and J.D. Walton is recovering from ankle surgery. On top of that, Denver’s front office suffered some black eyes and star LB Von Miller is waiting on an appeal of a four-game suspension.

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Da Bum's 2013 Preseason Profit Report

Da Bum's 2013 Preseason Profit Report

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