Announcement

**Udog** · 07-18-2013, 08:37 AM

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

Odds to win the Pac-12 football championship this season........

3-2-- Oregon-- New coach; are 7-0 as road favorites last two years.

7-2-- USC-- Kiffin one of three ex-NFL HC's coaching in this league.

9-2-- Stanford-- 12-2 vs spread as road favorites last three seasons.

13-2-- UCLA-- Special teams ranked #93/#72 in country last two years.

7-1-- Arizona-- Entire defense returns; 8-14 vs spread last 22 as favorite.

8-1-- Arizona State-- Doubled sack total, from 26 in '11 to 52 LY.

10-1-- Oregon State-- 15 starters back; 16-6 as road dogs last four years.

12-1-- Washington-- 18 starters back; 15-9 vs spread at home since '09.

18-1-- Utah-- +42 in turnovers last six years; 19-12 last 31 as a dog.

50-1-- California-- New coach, new QB; 2-8 as home dogs since 2005.

50-1-- Washington State-- Minus-46 in turnovers last five seasons.

75-1-- Colorado-- Last winning season '05; 10-26 as road dog since then.

*****

Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but..........

13) This is the week of the year when my sleep clock gets totally messed up, watching British Open out here in Las Vegas; it comes on at 1am, goes off at noon- won't be much time to sleep once baseball resumes on Friday.

12) Cellphones have made life easier for most of us, but not golf caddies, who are tormented by the thought of a photo being clicked while his guy is hitting a shot. Phil Mickelson's caddy had an exchange with a fan early in the round Thursday.

11) Alex Rodriguez thinks he's going to be back in the Bronx Monday, but Brian Cashman calling San Diego about Chase Headley says otherwise.

10) Miami beat the Knicks 113-68 in a summer league game Wednesday night; how in God's name do you allow 113 points in a 40:00 game?

We're all about college basketball; here is an overview of five college hoop tournaments whose brackets were announced this week:
9) Maui Classic-- Eight years ago, Gonzaga beat Michigan State in triple OT on Maui, in one of the best college games of the last decade. Zags are back in paradise, as is Richard Pitino, whose Gophers face Syracuse in first round.

8) Old Spice Classic, Orlando-- I'm thinking Marcus Smart can do for Oklahoma State what Carmelo Anthony did for Syracuse in 2003; Butler will be an interesting study this year, their first year without Brad Stevens. .

7) Puerto Rico-- Florida State-VCU is excellent first round game; winner probably gets Michigan. Georgetown is favorite on other side of bracket, but will get tested by the Charlotte-Kansas State winner. .

6) Charleston-- How will New Mexico do with Craig Neal replacing Steve Alford as coach? Georgia-Davidson, Nebraska-UMass are interesting first round games. Temple-Clemson should be low-scoring.

5) Diamond Head-- Boise State returns 92% of its scoring, is expected to win a depleted Mountain West, but they have road game in first round against host Hawai'i. South Carolina-Santa Clara is interesting first round tilt.

Elsewhere..........
4) Thomas Bjorn hit a shot on the 1st hole at Muirfield that shattered the lens of an ABC camera, ruining an $80,000 camera. Whoops.

3) They had 4.5 inches of rain in 90 minutes in Mt Airy, NC Wednesday; that is an awful lot of rain in a short period of time.

2) Tampa Bay Bucs' kicker Connor Barth tore his achilles tendon, is out for the year; Lawrence Tynes will start the season as the Buc kicker.

1) College football starts six weeks from tonight.

**Udog** · 07-18-2013, 08:38 AM

Favorites and live long shots to win MLB MVP awards

The MLB All-Star break is the perfect time for prop bettors to weigh the last three and a half months and search for value in the American and National League MVP odds.

We take a look at the favorites and some live long shots to earn each league’s top individual honor.

American League MVP

Favorite: Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers (+150)

Cabrera is ahead of his Triple Crown pace from 2012, hitting .365 with 30 HRs and 95 RBIs at the break. The Tigers are fighting off the Cleveland Indians in the AL Central and more of the same from “Miggy” would mean another trip to the postseason and likely another MVP honor.

Long shot: Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays (+1,000)

Longoria struggled through foot pain for most of the first half of 2013 and was snubbed by the All-Star Game, despite being one of the best two-way players in the majors. Tampa Bay was the hottest team entering the break and if Longoria can spark the Rays’ run to the top of the AL East, there’s a good chance he could win over MVP voters.

National League MVP

Favorite: Yadier Molina, St. Louis Cardinals (+250)

The Cardinals catcher has been the heart and soul of the club for a while now and is putting together a solid 2013 campaign, leading the NL with a .341 BA. For everything he’s done at the plate this year, Molina’s biggest strength is behind the plate, handling a staff ranked third in ERA (3.40).

Long shot: Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants (+450)

Depending on where you bet, the Giants’ downfall has juiced Posey’s odds to win MVP with some markets offering the catcher as high as +1,200. The NL West is about as predictable as a “Sharknado”, so if the defending World Series champs can repeat their run of 2012 – 48-28 after the break – Posey’s price is right.

Odds to win AL MVP

Miguel Cabrera (Tigers) +140
Chris Davis (Orioles) +300
David Ortiz (Red Sox) +800
Evan Longoria (Rays) +1000
Josh Donaldson (Athletics) +1200
Dustin Pedroia (Red Sox) +1200
Adrian Beltre (Rangers) +1200
Mike Trout (Angels) +1500
James Loney (Rays) +2000
Joe Mauer (Twins) +2000

Odds to win NL MVP

Yadier Molina (Cardinals) +250
Paul Goldschmidt (Diamondbacks) +300
Joey Votto (Reds) +350
Carlos Gonzalez (Rockies) +450
Buster Posey (Giants) +450
Michael Cuddyer (Rockies) +1200
Allen Craig (Cardinals) +1200
Matt Carpenter (Cardinals) +1200
Carlos Gomez (Brewers) +1500

**Udog** · 07-18-2013, 08:39 AM

WNBA
Dunkel

Chicago at New York
The Liberty look to bounce back from their 74-53 loss to Indiana and build on their 4-1 ATS record in their last 5 games following an ATS defeat. New York is the pick (+5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Liberty favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: New York (+5 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

THURSDAY, JULY 18

Game 651-652: Chicago at New York (11:00 a.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 111.373; New York 112.879
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 1 1/2; 148
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 5 1/2; 153 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New York (+5 1/2); Under

Game 653-654: Phoenix at Los Angeles (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 106.470; Los Angeles 122.268
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 16; 177
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles by 11 1/2; 171 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-11 1/2); Over

WNBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, July 18

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CHICAGO (10 - 4) at NEW YORK (6 - 8) - 7/18/2013, 11:05 AM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW YORK is 71-49 ATS (+17.1 Units) when playing with 3 or more days rest since 1997.
NEW YORK is 76-53 ATS (+17.7 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more since 1997.
NEW YORK is 33-18 ATS (+13.2 Units) after scoring 55 points or less since 1997.
NEW YORK is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) revenging a home loss versus opponent over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 6-5 against the spread versus NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 6-5 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHOENIX (8 - 7) at LOS ANGELES (11 - 4) - 7/18/2013, 10:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHOENIX is 15-34 ATS (-22.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 11-27 ATS (-18.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in July games over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 11-23 ATS (-14.3 Units) in May, June, or July games over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) when playing with 3 or more days rest over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 8-23 ATS (-17.3 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 7-22 ATS (-17.2 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) revenging a home loss versus opponent over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 13-29 ATS (-18.9 Units) after allowing 75 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 17-30 ATS (-16.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
PHOENIX is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in July games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LOS ANGELES is 7-4 against the spread versus PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
LOS ANGELES is 8-3 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WNBA

Thursday, July 18

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Trend Report
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11:00 AM
CHICAGO vs. NEW YORK
Chicago is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing New York
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games on the road
New York is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of New York's last 9 games at home

10:00 PM
PHOENIX vs. LOS ANGELES
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Phoenix's last 10 games when playing on the road against Los Angeles
Phoenix is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Los Angeles
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Los Angeles's last 10 games when playing at home against Phoenix
Los Angeles is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Phoenix

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**Udog** · 07-18-2013, 08:41 AM

CFL
Dunkel

Toronto at Winnipeg
The Argonauts look to build on their 4-1 ATS record in their last 5 games at Winnipeg. Toronto is the pick (Pick) according to Dunkel, which has the Argonauts favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: Toronto. Here are all of this week's CFL picks.

FRIDAY, JULY 19

Game 421-422: Toronto at Winnipeg (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 113.061; Winnipeg 111.075
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 2; 58
Vegas Line: Pick; 53
Dunkel Pick: Toronto; Over

SATURDAY, JULY 20

Game 423-424: Montreal at Calgary (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 109.531; Calgary 122.495
Dunkel Line: Calgary by 13; 48
Vegas Line: Calgary by 7; 52
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-7); Under

Game 425-426: Edmonton at BC (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 106.521; BC 120.171
Dunkel Line: BC by 13 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: BC by 8 1/2; 50
Dunkel Pick: BC (-8 1/2); Under

SUNDAY, JULY 21

Game 427-428: Hamilton at Saskatchewan (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Hamilton 112.968; Saskatchewan 116.906
Dunkel Line: Saskatchewan by 4; 60
Vegas Line: Saskatchewan by 6; 57
Dunkel Pick: Hamilton (+6); Over

CFL
Long Sheet

Week 4

Friday, July 19

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TORONTO (1 - 2) at WINNIPEG (1 - 2) - 7/19/2013, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WINNIPEG is 23-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
WINNIPEG is 4-3 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 4-3 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Saturday, July 20

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MONTREAL (1 - 2) at CALGARY (2 - 1) - 7/20/2013, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MONTREAL is 14-26 ATS (-14.6 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CALGARY is 5-0 against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 4-1 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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EDMONTON (1 - 2) at BRITISH COLUMBIA (2 - 1) - 7/20/2013, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 20-39 ATS (-22.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 6-3 against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 7-2 straight up against EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, July 21

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HAMILTON (1 - 2) at SASKATCHEWAN (3 - 0) - 7/21/2013, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SASKATCHEWAN is 56-36 ATS (+16.4 Units) when playing on a Sunday since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 47-25 ATS (+19.5 Units) in July games since 1996.
HAMILTON is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SASKATCHEWAN is 2-2 against the spread versus HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
SASKATCHEWAN is 2-2 straight up against HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 4

Toronto (1-2) @ Winnipeg (1-2)-- Underdogs are 12-3 vs spread in last 15 Argo-Bomberr games; Argonauts won four of last five series games, winning six of last eight visits here; under is 5-3 in those eight games. Road teams won four of last six in series. Both teams are off to shaky starts; Toronto allowed 32.3 ppg so far, giving up 160-224 rushing yards last two weeks. Winnipeg is already -6 in turnovers, being minus in every game; both its losses are by five points, losing only home game 38-33 to Montreal, 25-20 at Winnipeg. Argos trailed all three games at halftime- they had 446 passing yards in last week's loss.

Montreal (1-2) @ Calgary (2-1)-- Stampeders (+2) won 22-14 in Montreal last week, their fourth win in last five series games; Calgary outgained Alouettes by 118 yards despite six Montreal sacks. Five of last seven series games went over total. Road team won all three Montreal games; Als scored 11-14 points in home losses last two weeks, with both games staying under- they scored 38 in only win- they've been outscored in second half in every game so far. Calgary has been outscored 55-22 in second half of games. Six of last eight series games went over the total.

Edmonton (1-2) @ BCLions (2-1)--Hard to tell much about Eskimos, since their last two games were played in monsoons. Lions won seven of last eight games against Edmonton; under is 8-4 in last twelve series games; BC (-3.5) won 17-3 in Edmonton last week, with Edmonton getting shut out in second half. Lions allowed total of 19 points last two games, after giving up 44 at Calgary in their opener- they ran ball for 160-197 yards last couple of games. Favorites covered four of last six series games, only three of last nine played here. Eskimos had three takeaways in their win; they didn't have any in either loss.

Hamilton (1-2) @ Saskatchewan (3-0)-- TiCats (+3.5) upset Roughriders 35-34 here LY, their first win in Regina in at least a decade, just their third win in last 18 games against the Riders. Underdogs are 4-1-1 vs spread in last six series games, 3-1-1 in last five played in Regina. Saskatchewan won its first three games, scoring 34.7 ppg, with all three tilts over the total; they've run ball for 173 ypg, and turned it over only once (+4). Hamilton gave up 147.3 rushing yards/game so far; they averaged over 11 yards/pass attempt last week, as they came from behind to beat Winnipeg for their first win this season.

CFL

Week 4

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Trend Report
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Friday, July 19

8:00 PM
TORONTO vs. WINNIPEG
Toronto is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games on the road
Winnipeg is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Toronto
Winnipeg is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto

Saturday, July 20

7:00 PM
MONTREAL vs. CALGARY
Montreal is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Calgary
Montreal is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Calgary
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Calgary's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Calgary's last 7 games when playing Montreal

10:00 PM
EDMONTON vs. BRITISH COLUMBIA
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Edmonton's last 7 games when playing on the road against British Columbia
Edmonton is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against British Columbia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of British Columbia's last 7 games when playing at home against Edmonton
British Columbia is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games

Sunday, July 21

7:00 PM
HAMILTON vs. SASKATCHEWAN
Hamilton is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Hamilton's last 14 games when playing Saskatchewan
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Saskatchewan's last 5 games when playing at home against Hamilton
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Saskatchewan's last 14 games when playing Hamilton

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Announcement

Thursday's Trends and Indexes - 7/18 (MLB, WNBA, CFL, Misc.)

Thursday's Trends and Indexes - 7/18 (MLB, WNBA, CFL, Misc.)

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