The Bum's NFL Team Preview Of Each Divisions !

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Three NFL teams drawing sharp action this offseason

Not one single snap has been taken in the 2013 NFL season but plenty of sharp handicappers already have their minds made up on a handful of teams.

With the release of early odds, like win totals, Games of the Year, and futures, bettors can voice their opinion well before Week 1 of the schedule. We talked to sportsbooks and pro handicappers about which NFL teams are being bet by the wiseguys this summer.

Sharps like…

New Orleans Saints

Win total: 9.5 (Over -130)
Divisional odds: +200
Super Bowl odds: +2,500

The Saints forget about 2012 and “Bounty Gate”, returning head coach Sean Peyton to the sidelines. New Orleans has one of the most lethal passing attacks in the league, headlined by QB Drew Brees, and a move to the 3-4 should wake up the defense.

Expert opinion: Teddy Covers, pro handicapper, “Last year was a wasted season for the Saints, with all of their coaching upheaval, but Sean Payton and his complete staff are poised for a return to the playoffs in 2013. Wiseguys have been betting on New Orleans all summer, driving up their pointspreads and season win total while driving down their odds to win the NFC South and/or the Super Bowl.”

Miami Dolphins

Win total: 7.5 (Over -160)
Divisional odds: +450
Super Bowl odds: +5,000

The Dolphins enter Year 2 under QB Ryan Tannehill and gave the second-year passer some new toys. Miami added WRs Mike Wallace and Brandon Gibson along with TE Dustin Keller. The AFC East is weak with even the Patriots looking shaky this offseason.

Expert opinion: Aron Black, Bet365.com, “Not surprisingly, as with other future markets, this play is also based on the perceived weakness that many feel New England will have, given the tight ends’ situations. If they get nine or more wins, then they will be right in the mix for the Super Bowl.”

Kansas City Chiefs

Win total: 7.5 (Over -115)
Divisional odds: +800
Super Bowl odds: +5,000

The Chiefs went through the ringer last year but have come out the other side looking like a different team in 2013. New QB Alex Smith and new head coach Andy Reid can breathe life into a franchise that still has a ton of talent – six Pro Bowlers last year.

Expert opinion: Michael Stewart, CarbonSports.ag, “The team we've seen the most ‘over’ money so far on are the Chiefs. After only winning two games last year, no way this team isn't going to see more success this season. New coach and new QB should bring a winning attitude. We opened (their win total at) 7 (Over -130) and are dealing 7.5 (-115) right now.”
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2013 NFL training camp preview: Indianapolis Colts


The Colts saw great things from Andrew Luck last season. Now it's time for the next step. The Colts saw great things from Andrew Luck last season. Now it's time for the next step.

Last offseason, the Colts were fresh off a 2-14 season, Peyton Manning had just been released, and Andrew Luck was the new franchise quarterback. The front office and coaching staff were also dumped, the roster overhauled with young, unproven talent (save Reggie Wayne, who signed a modest deal to stay in Indianapolis), and a team with virtually no expectations won 11 games and made the playoffs.

Now that it appears Rome has been built in a day, the Colts hope to improve on their 2012 successes. But once you get past the 11-5 record and just how good Luck is -- and will be -- questions remain. According to FootballOutsiders.com's metrics, Indianapolis ranked 18th in the league in offense and 31st in defense.

Though Luck flourished in Bruce Arians' scheme, he was sacked 41 times. Arians is now the head coach in Arizona and Luck has been reunited with his college OC, Pep Hamilton.

But whomever's calling plays or whatever the scheme, the basic tenet of protecting the quarterback remains. Which is why general manager Ryan Grigson wasted little time signing former Lions first-round pick Gosder Cherilus and making him the starting right tackle. The team also used its second- and third-round picks in April's NFL Draft to take guard Hugh Thornton and center Khaled Holmes. The theme: Protect the face of the franchise.


Key changes

Veteran Matt Hasselbeck provides the Colts something they didn't have in 2011 -- a legitimate backup quarterback. Not only that, Hasselbeck seems to embrace his role as mentor (something he did with Jake Locker in Tennessee).

Wayne had 100 catches last season but the second-leading receiver, wide receiver Donnie Avery, is now with the Chiefs. The Colts hope second-year tight ends Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen become a bigger part of the passing game, but the team also signed former Raiders first-rounder Darrius Heyward-Bey in the hopes that getting out of Oakland will do for him what it did for Randy Moss when he was traded to the Patriots in 2007. (That's probably a tad optimistic, but even a fraction of Moss' production would be welcome.)

The defense -- which was supposed to improve under coach Chuck Pagano, the former Ravens defensive coordinator -- didn't look much different than the previous versions, at least in terms of production. The Colts moved to a 3-4 front last offseason, and that proved to be a lot to ask for defensive end lifer Dwight Freeney. He managed just five sacks and is now in San Diego. Grigson gave former Packers linebacker Erik Walden a four-year, $16 million contract this spring and he'll replace Freeney on the depth chart. Freeney's bookend, Robert Mathis, returns after racking up eight sacks in '12. The team also used its first-round pick on Florida State defensive end Bjoern Werner, who is -- you guessed it -- currently transitioning to outside linebacker.

In the secondary, cornerback Jerraud Powers is gone (he's now with the Cardinals) and the Colts signed underrated Greg Toler (formerly of the Cardinals), whom CBSSports.com's Pete Prisco identified as one of the top under-the-radar free agents. The Colts gave former Jets safety LaRon Landry $24 million, which seems like a lot of money to devote to a player who struggles with injuries and man coverage. Still, the plan is that he'll become the defense's enforcer, something that was lacking a season ago.


Position battle

Nose tackle Aubrayo Franklin was signed this offseason and he'll compete with second-year player Josh Chapman for the starting gig. Franklin's a grizzled veteran, arriving in Indy after stints in Baltimore, San Francisco, New Orleans and most recently San Diego. He's also familiar with defensive coordinator Greg Manusky's scheme from their time together with the 49ers. Chapman, meanwhile, hasn't played a down since the Colts drafted him out of Alabama in 2012.


New scheme

Pep Hamilton replaces Bruce Arians as offensive coordinator, which means the team will transition to a West Coast-inspired scheme. (Though Hamilton prefers to call it a "No Coast offense" because, according to Hasselbeck, Hamilton says he doesn't "care what people have done in the past, we’re going to do whatever it takes.")

Hasselbeck added: "You can feel the footprint of Peyton Manning and that offense still in this playbook, stuff that they’ve done. Stuff that was good with Reggie Wayne. Stuff that was just good for the guys here, that’s worked with Clyde Christensen, the quarterbacks coach. Then there is a good element of the stuff that Bruce Arians had success with last year that worked with Andrew (Luck). Then there is the stuff that Pep did at Stanford with Jim Harbaugh and kind of what the 49ers are doing."


Bubble watch

The Colts signed running back Ahmad Bradshaw, which means Delone Carter could find himself on the wrong side of the final 53. Carter is fourth on the depth chart behind Bradshaw, Vick Ballard and Donald Brown.

Backup safety Joe Lefeged was arrested in late June on gun charges. Depending on how the legal process plays out, he could be looking for work in the coming weeks.


Unheard-of-guy to watch

Greg Toler was taken by the Cardinals in the fourth round of the 2009 draft. He arrived with few expectations, a former semi-pro player who shined at Division II St. Paul's (Va.) before getting drafted. By 2010, he was a starter but missed the 2011 season with an ACL injury. Here's how Pete Prisco described Toler in February:

"At 6-feet, 190 pounds, he is a capable man-cover player who is also a willing tackler. That's the one thing that surprised me on tape: His willingness to tackle. He throws his body around, but he's also more than capable of staying with good receivers. He can play press-man, off-man and he seems comfortable playing zone.

"For a team looking for a 28-year-old corner who would seem to have his best football in front of him, Toler would make a ton of sense."

Clearly, Grigson agreed.


Biggest concerns

With the upgrades to the offensive line and the expectation that Luck will be even better than he was as a rookie, the questions about the 2013 Colts start on defense. The hope is that the offseason additions of Franklin up front, Walden and Werner at linebacker, and Landry and Toler in the secondary will yield results in the form of fewer points and more sacks and turnovers. But even if this transition proves to be a multi-year process, Luck and Indy's offense has shown that they can carry the load.


Something to prove

Darrius Heyward-Bey had four forgettable years in Oakland where he was plagued by expectations, injuries and drops. In Indy, he'll learn from Reggie Wayne, have one of the league's best young quarterbacks throwing him passes, and do it all while playing for a stable franchise, something he never experienced with the Raiders.

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2013 NFL training camp preview: Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars hope new additions like Luke Joeckel and Mohamed Massaquoi will help right the ship. The Jaguars hope new additions like Luke Joeckel and Mohamed Massaquoi will help right the ship.

Coach Mike Mularkey lasted one season in Jacksonville, going 2-14, the worst record in team history. Owner Shahid Khan wants to make the Jaguars relevant again and unlike some of his counterparts, he's happy to hire the football people to see that vision through. New general manager David Caldwell and new coach Gus Bradley have been tasked with revitalizing a franchise that came into the league in 1995 and then proceeded to make the playoffs four straight years from 1996-1999, including two AFC Championship Game appearances. In the 13 years since: Two trips to the playoffs and nine seasons of sub-.500 football.

One thing those early Jags teams had that the current version doesn't: A franchise quarterback. Jacksonville drafted Blaine Gabbert 10th overall in 2011 but the results have been mostly disappointing. Like his AFC South counterpart in Tennessee, Jake Locker, the 2013 season will be a make-or-break one for Gabbert.

To be fair, Gabbert had little help; the Jaguars were last in the league in scoring last season, managing 15.9 points per game. And according to FootballOutsiders.com's metrics, the unit was just as bad throwing the ball (28th) as it was at running it (27th). It didn't help that running back Maurice Jones-Drew was sidelined for the final 10 games with a foot injury, the wide receivers struggled to get open, or that the offensive line and Gabbert combined to allow 50 sacks.


Key changes

The Jaguars selected Luke Joeckel with the second overall pick in April's draft and he will begin the season at right tackle. The team cut ties with wide receiver Laurent Robinson after one disappointing season, but signed former Browns wideout Mohamed Massaquoi, who has plenty of big-play ability but was plagued by injuries during his four years in Cleveland.

The team added running back Justin Forsett while MJD recovers from his Lisfranc injury, and drafted jack-of-all-trades Denard Robinson in April. For an idea of how the Jaguars plan to use him, consider this: Robinson was listed on the team's official depth chart as OW, a nod to Robinson describing himself as an "offensive weapon" leading up to the draft. He attends meetings with the running backs, but the expectation is that he'll see time at wide receiver and returner, too. Caldwell has said previously that the plan is to get Robinson 10-15 touches a game.

On defense, linebacker Daryl Smith is now with the Ravens, although he missed all but two games last season with a groin injury. The unit added cornerbacks Alan Ball, formerly of Dallas, as well as veteran Marcus Trufant, the Seahawks' former first-round pick. The team also addressed the secondary through the draft. Second-rounder Jonathan Cyprien will be the starting strong safety, replacing Dawan Landry. Third-round cornerback Dwayne Gratz, who has drawn comparisons to 49ers CB Carlos Rogers, could also find himself in the starting lineup.

The addition of former Titans Sen'Derrick Marks allows the Jaguars to move Tyson Alualu from defensive tackle to defensive end, and Roy Miller arrives from Tampa Bay where he was known for his ability to wreak havoc for opposing interior offensive linemen.


Position battles

Former Bears outside linebacker Geno Hayes could line up next to Paul Posluszny and Russell Allen. But Hayes will have to battle second-year player Julian Stanford for that right. Stanford was signed as an undrafted free agent out of Wagner in 2012 with eye-dropping measurables (including a 4.51 40 time).

Ball signed with the Jaguars for the chance to start, after starting just three games in Dallas the past two seasons. With Derek Cox, Aaron Ross and Rashean Mathis no longer with the team, the path to the top of the depth chart is wide open. It appears that Gratz will be penciled in on one side while Ball and Trufant will compete for the other job. "I just wanted an opportunity,” Ball said in June. “There's a new system being built, and I think it's going to be special. I want to be a part of it."


New schemes

New offensive coordinator Jedd Fisch is installing a zone-blocking scheme. Fisch spent a year in Denver, where the scheme was popularized by offensive line coach Alex Gibbs and then-coach Mike Shanahan, who had a knack for turning any back into a 1,000-yard rusher.

Bradley, who was the defensive coordinator in Seattle before replacing Mularkey, will keep the Jaguars' 4-3 defensive front. “We'll have some basic philosophies that we're going to incorporate scheme-wise," Jags defensive coordinator Bob Babich told the team's website back in January. "There are going to be a lot of different things we'll look at. We're going to look to play fast, and we want to get better every day."
Bubble watch

Cornerback Mike Harris' roster spot appeared in doubt after the team drafted three cornerbacks in April. But Harris showed well during offseason workouts and is currently listed as the backup behind Gratz. Trufant could also be on the wrong side of the roster bubble should he struggle with injuries, something that has plagued him during his career. Center Brad Meester returns for his 14th season, but if Mike Brewster impresses in training camp, there's a slim chance the team could choose to cut ties with Meester.


Unheard-of-guy to watch

Ace Sanders or Dwayne Gratz, take your pick. Sanders is only 5-feet-7, 175 pounds, but he's an explosive returner. A year ago, the Jags used a third-round pick on punter Bryan Anger and took some flak for it. (At the time, we joked that if the argument for taking Anger was that he changed field position, there are other ways to do that: draft players that help the offense get first downs.) Or, in the case of Sanders, draft someone who can change field position and have the Jags' offense take the field immediately afterward.

Gratz, meanwhile, arrived in Jacksonville after an under-the-radar career in UConn, playing in Blidi Wreh-Wilson's shadow (Wilson was drafted in the third round by the Titans). He's a physical corner with good hands, and he could make an immediate impact next to another rookie, strong safety Jonathan Cyprien.


Biggest concern

Blaine Gabbert. The NFL is a passing league woefully short of quality passers. Gabbert enters his third season with some pedestrian numbers. In 25 career games, he has completed 53.8 percent of his passes for 3,876 yards, 21 touchdowns and 17 interceptions. He has also been sacked 62 times. But it's not as bad as it looks, at least according to GM David Caldwell, who said that the Jaguars' research showed that when Gabbert had at least 2.6 seconds to throw he was in the top third of NFL quarterbacks. When he had less than 2.6 seconds to throw, the Jaguars' O-line gave up the third-most sacks in the league. The good news is that MJD will hopefully return to full health and lessen Gabbert's burden, wide receiver Justin Blackmon will be in his second season, and wide receiver Cecil Shorts will remain one of the NFL's great secrets.


Something to prove

In nine starts last season, Shorts caught 55 passes for 979 yards and seven touchdowns on one of the league's most inept offenses. The 2011 fourth-round pick out of Mount Union College had just two catches his rookie season, but unlike some players who arrive in the league with first-round pedigrees, Shorts has a chip on his shoulder.

"I want to be one of the elite receivers in this game," he told CBSSports.com's Pete Prisco in early June. "It's going to take a lot of work to get there. I know that."

Shorts has used the offseason to get stronger because having the world's best hands means little if he can't get off the line of scrimmage.

"When I watch film, guys like A.J. Green, Michael Crabtree, Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald, they all explode off the ball," he said. "Getting off the jam and being able to shed is important. You have to be strong to hold your own. I feel stronger. I feel more explosive."

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2013 NFL training camp preview: Houston Texans

The Texans won the AFC South last season, amassing a 12-4 record. The Texans won the AFC South last season, amassing a 12-4 record.

A year after making the playoffs for the first time in team history, it has become habit-forming for the Texans. We've gone from wondering if coach Gary Kubiak is on the hot seat to celebrating back-to-back 10- and 12-win seasons, division titles, and postseason appearances. Next up: Getting to the Super Bowl.

Key changes

Despite losing key contributors to free agency -- DE/OLB Connor Barwin (Eagles), S Glover Quin (Lions), RB Justin Forsett (Jaguars), FB James Casey (Eagles), and WR Kevin Walter (Titans) among them -- the Texans remain one of the AFC's best teams. Their biggest need heading into the offseason was at wide receiver, finding someone to not only make things easier for Andre Johnson, but to also open things up for a running game that sputtered at times last season.

To that end, the Texans selected wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins in the first round. Entering the draft, the knock against Hopkins was that he wasn't a burner. But he doesn't need to be in Houston's precision West Coast scheme. His size (6-1, 215) and his ability to catch anything thrown in his direction fits exactly with the Texans' need, which explains why he'll enter training camp as a starter.

The offensive line has quietly developed into one of the best units in the league. That said, right tackle is a concern. Derek Newton, a seventh-round pick in 2011, started 14 games last year had offseason knee surgery. Brennan Williams, a third-round pick this spring, injured his knee in minicamp. That leaves veteran Ryan Harris and rookie David Quessenberry, although Kubiak expects everyone to be healthy for training camp.

On defense, Barwin will be replaced by outside linebackers Whitney Mercilus and Brooks Reed, former first- and second-round picks. There are concerns about depth, however; Bryan Braman was signed as an undrafted free agent in 2011, and Sam Montgomery and Trevardo Williams are rookies, though both have gobs of potential.

Brian Cushing, who returns at inside linebacker after suffering an ACL injury last season, solidifies the middle of this defense, and Tim Dobbins was re-signed this offseason to back him up.

While it would have been nice to keep Quin in the secondary, the Texans landed future Hall of Famer Ed Reed. The team also drafted Reed's eventual replacement, hard-hitting safety D.J. Swearinger in the second round of the April draft.


Position battles

Kubiak expects Derek Newton, the team's starting right tackle from a year ago, to be fully recovered from knee surgery by training camp. But if he's not, rookie Brennan Williams and veteran Ryan Harris could compete for the gig. Kubiak admitted that Brennan Williams, like most rookies, struggled in OTAs. Harris, meanwhile, started two games last season in Newton's absence.

The starters are pretty much set at other positions, and any position battles will likely be for backup roles. For example: Sam Montgomery and Trevardo Williams at outside linebacker, and which backup running back -- Ray Graham, Cierre Wood, or someone else -- will earn a roster spot.


New schemes

Kubiak brought the West Coast offense to Houston with him from Denver, where he served as Mike Shanahan's offensive coordinator, and the Texans have never had problems scoring points. On the other side of the ball, defensive coordinator Wade Phillips has solidified a once porous unit. The centerpiece remains defensive end J.J. Watt, one of the NFL's best players. But the hope is that Ed Reed will bring experience to a secondary that is young and talented. The plan, once Reed recovers from offseason hip surgery, is to use him in a center fielder role rather than have two high safeties, which was often the case with Quin and Danieal Manning.

“He's a great player, but he's also a great communicator,” Phillips said of Reed back in March. “Part of his great playing skill is he's able to help other guys by letting them know where he's gonna help 'em, how he's gonna help 'em. His experience in that area is beyond most players. It is like a coach on the field, except it's a player on the field that has great anticipation for what's gonna happen. He studies the game. He knows what's happening from each formation, those kind of things, and then he's able to communicate those things to where he's gonna help people. That's over and beyond what players can do, but he is over and beyond what most players are.”


Bubble watch

There shouldn't be many surprises as August gives way to September, at least near the top of the Texans' roster. Due to salary cap issues or production, the team let plenty of veterans walk during free agency and several -- Shaun Cody, Stanford Routt and Barrett Ruud -- are still looking for work.


Unheard-of-guy to watch

Jared Crick has gotten lost in the shadow of Watt and Antonio Smith, and understandably so. But the second-year defensive end out of Nebraska is poised for a big year. He'll be a rotational player in 2013 and if all goes well, he'll likely replace Smith, whose contract is set to expire after the season. The Houston Chronicle 's Lance Zierlein described Crick as a traditional 3-4 defensive end you might find on the Steelers. Houston's scheme requires ends to play more like defensive tackles, which means getting into the backfield. Crick may not excel as a penetrator compared to Watt or Smith, but he'll be be stout against the run.

Another name to watch: Trevardo Williams. He left UConn as the all-time sack leader but he arrived in the NFL as an undersized outside linebacker. A defensive end in college who relied on his speed to get to the quarterback, he'll have to learn the complexities of Wade Phillips' defense before he'll see the field. In the meantime, he'll learn by watching Brooks Reed and Whitney Mercilus.


Biggest concerns

Ed Reed's health. The team admitted that Reed's offseason hip surgery came as a surprise, and in May, Phillips admitted to being a "little concerned." While Reed will eventually end up in Canton, CBSSports.com's Pete Prisco isn't convinced the Texans are better off by signing him.

“The bottom line is does Ed Reed bring street cred, football cred? Yes, he does," Prisco said in late May. "He's won a Super Bowl, but so what? What's it matter? If you can't play, you can't play and I just don't think he was very good last year. Now I will say he was hurt and he didn't tackle.”

Prisco's words are bolstered by ProFootballFocus.com's numbers -- Reed graded out well below Grover Quin, who left the Texans in free agency.


Something to prove

Arian Foster. It seems silly to mention Foster here given that he led the league in rushing in 2010 and ran for over 1,400 yards last season. But his average yards per carry dropped from 4.9 in '10 to 4.1 in '12, a career low. Foster, who missed some offseason workouts with a strained calf, expects to be ready for training camp. He also expects to rebound in 2013. "I just want to bounce back. I didn't feel like I had the best season last year,” he told the team's website in May. “I set a lot of personal goals, a lot of things that I do. I just didn't feel like I was at my best, and it's gonna change this year.”

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2013 NFL training camp preview: Tennessee Titans

If the Titans will rise to the top of the AFC South, they must see improvement from key players. If the Titans will rise to the top of the AFC South, they must see improvement from key players.

The Tennessee Titans haven't made the playoffs since 2008. The following two seasons -- Jeff Fisher's last two with the club -- the Titans were 8-8 and 6-10. Mike Munchak was hired in 2011 and won a respectable nine games his first season. By 2012, the team had slipped to 6-10 and it's reasonable to think that Munchak won't be back in Tennessee in 2014 if things don't improve.


The organization still has questions about quarterback Jake Locker, the eighth-overall pick in the 2011 NFL Draft, but he will begin the season under center with a new cast of characters around him. The hope: Locker -- and by extension running back Chris Johnson and the rest of the offense -- will become much more consistent. Last season, this group averaged 20.6 points per game, which ranked 23rd in the league. It was equal-opportunity ineptitude. The passing game ranked 29th in efficiency, according to FootballOutsiders.com's metrics, while the running game was 26th.
Put another way: There's a lot of room for improvement.


Key changes

The Titans used their No. 10 pick in the 2013 NFL Draft to beef up the offensive line, taking Alabama right guard Chance Warmack, who will immediately move into the starting lineup. Andy Levitre, formerly of the Bills and signed this offseason, will play left guard, and former 49ers tight end Delanie Walker will replace Jared Cook (who signed with the Rams) at tight end.

Running back Shonn Greene was added to spell Johnson, and should nothing go as planned, Ryan Fitzpatrick would replace Locker after the organization opted not to re-sign veteran backup Matt Hasselbeck (now with the Colts).

The Titans also bolstered their wide receiver corps. A year after using a first-round pick on Kendall Wright (who led the team with 64 receptions as a rookie), they selected Tennessee's Justin Hunter in Round 2 this April. At 6-4, 195, there are questions about his consistency and physicality, but he can make an immediate impact in the red zone, a huge problem for this offense a season ago.

To bolster a defense that allowed a league-worst 29.4 points per game last season, the Titans signed safeties Bernard Pollard (formerly of the Ravens) and George Wilson (formerly of the Bills). Up front, Sammie Lee Hill was signed away from the Lions to play defensive tackle.

Draft picks CB Blidi Wreh-Wilson, OLB Zaviar Gooden and DE Lavar Edwards will all use training camp to push for playing time. Quality depth is welcome on a defense where actually stopping people didn't appear to be a priority a season ago. Also brought on board to help: Gregg Williams, suspended for the 2012 season for his involvement in the Saints bounty scandal. He's officially listed as the senior assistant/defense, although Williams, who was Fisher’s defensive coordinator at one time, will be working closely with current defensive coordinator Jerry Gray.


Position battles

Wide receiver Nate Washington may be the grizzled veteran of the group, but he might not be atop the depth chart by the time the season starts. He'll face competition from a young group that includes Wright and Hunter. There are also questions about Kenny Britt and his otherworldly talent. The problem: The Titans never know which Britt will (or won't) show up.

At cornerback, Wreh-Wilson, a rangy athletic player from UConn, could push for playing time, although he had been working inside during minicamp.

Marc Mariani, who was lost for the 2012 season after breaking his leg in a preseason game, will have to fend off Darius Reynaud as the team's return specialist.


New schemes

So what's changing? Everything, to hear Wright tell it. When asked in June what was different about the Titans' offense, the second-year wideout said, "It's just a new playbook. There's nothing left over from last year."

Offensive coordinator Dowell Loggains, who replaced Chris Palmer during last season, has hinted at what the new-look scheme will look like. "We are going to be a run, play-action team first, but we're still going to drop back and throw the football."

This is good news for Chris Johnson, who insists every offseason that he wants more touches. And it could be good news for Locker, too; the offense won't be built around his ability to wing the ball all over the yard, but instead, his skills at managing an offense that features (a hopefully revitalized) CJ2K.


Bubble watch

With the addition of Hill and Antonio Johnson to beef up the defensive line, Karl Klug, who led the team in sacks in 2011, could be playing for his job.


Unheard-of-guy to watch

Blidi Wreh-Wilson may only be unheard of because he's a rookie who's been with the team since late April. But at 6-1, 195 pounds, he looks like an NFL cornerback. Whether he plays like one will be answered in the coming months but the Titans may have gotten a steal. Wilson, who was drafted in the third round, was considered a first- or second-round talent dating back to his senior season at UConn. He's a smart player who doesn't rely solely on this athleticism, and he can immediately match up with tight ends and bigger receivers.


Biggest concerns

While the defense was among the worst in the league in 2012, general manager Russ Webster spent the offseason stocking the roster with playmakers. The same holds for offense, too. The wild card to all this coming together: quarterback Jake Locker. It's officially his job to lose and it appears the entire organization has rallied behind him. But for the Titans to improve, Locker has to make better decisions. He completed just 56 percent of his passes last season, tossing 10 touchdowns against 11 interceptions. He was also sacked 25 times. The sack totals should decrease because of an improved offensive line and hopefully a more effective play-action running game. But ultimately, if Tennessee is going make the postseason, it'll come down to Locker.

Put another way: Three teams in 2012 qualified for the playoffs after going 6-10 the year before: the Colts, Redskins and Vikings. Two of those teams came into franchise quarterbacks, while the other had a stifling defense and the galaxy's best running back.


Something to prove

Chris Johnson is the reflexive answer here, but the reality is that CJ2K rushed for 1,243 yards last season, averaging 4.5 yards per carry. The bigger question heading into the season: Kenny Britt. Upside: He's avoided the legal issues that plagued him last offseason. Downside: He's never had more than 45 receptions in a season, and that came in 2012 when he also averaged a career-low 13.1 yards per catch. Britt's now entering the final year of his rookie deal and has endured three knee surgeries, including an ACL injury that limited him to just three games and 17 receptions in 2011.

"I'm going to be the receiver I was two years ago," Britt said in June, referring to the 2010 season when he had 42 receptions for 775 yards and nine touchdowns. "And I'm probably going to be even better than that because I've focused more on football than I ever have in my life the last few months."

[StarDust Bum]

2013 NFL training camp preview: Denver Broncos

Peyton Manning brought new life to the Broncos in 2012, and now he has Wes Welker for a target. Peyton Manning brought new life to the Broncos in 2012, and now he has Wes Welker for a target.

Tim Who? Peyton Manning's re-emergence as an elite quarterback made Broncos fans forget all about 2011's miraculous run as Denver finished tied with the Falcons for the best record in the NFL at 13-3, closing out the year on a whopping 11-game winning streak.

Only some blown coverage of Jacoby Jones by Denver's secondary puts the kibosh on an otherwise outstanding season. The Broncos won't be satisfied with anything less than a Super Bowl in 2013 and after an impressive offseason it's tough to blame them.

The one blemish on John Elway's mark since that ill-fated night against the Ravens is the fax machine goof that resulted in Elvis Dumervil leaving for Baltimore. (Hey, guess who's coming to town in Week 1!) Clearly Denver would prefer having him on the roster instead of lining up against them.


Key changes

The additions Elway made were impressive. Snaring Wes Welker from the Patriots might be my favorite offseason move in the entire NFL, if only for the multiple levels of drama it presents. Welker might not put up numbers the way he did in New England, but he's a big upgrade over Brandon Stokley and gives Denver what might be the best wide receiver corps in the NFL with Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker outside. The Broncos also landed Louis Vasquez from division rival San Diego; acquiring a Chargers offensive lineman isn't ideal, but Vasquez was the best player on a very bad offensive line.

Joel Dreessen makes the depth chart at tight end deeper and while the Broncos dumped Willis McGahee, they did boost the running back depth chart by selecting Montee Ball out of Wisconsin in the draft. Ball, Ronnie Hillman and Knowshon Moreno form an interesting group.

Defensively the Broncos clearly attacked the line: additions of Sylvester Williams via the draft and Terrance Knighton via free agency should do wonders to free up Denver's pass rushers and improve their ability at the point of attack. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie on a one-year deal just seems like a fantastic investment with little chance of backfiring too badly.

The only coaching change the Broncos saw was the departure of Mike McCoy to the Chargers. Adam Gase, just 34 years old, will take his place and has promoted the idea of having the team "play as fast as possible." Gase, who is younger than his quarterback, will obviously have plenty of say in what goes on with the Broncos attack and I'd expect them to play up-tempo. That's what worked last year and it's what works with Manning under center. But Denver's more or less running what Manning wants them to, and there's nothing really wrong with that.


Position battles

The offense is more or less set. Dreessen and Jacob Tamme could battle for the No. 1 tight end spot, but Manning's been on record as saying that Tamme is the fulcrum of Denver's offense. (He uses the defense's positioning against Tamme to diagnose coverage) Hillman, Ball and Moreno are likely to battle for a while to see who gets the most carries -- my early money is on Hillman nabbing the job, with Ball coming on strong and eventually taking most of the carries. Despite his strong close to last season, Knowshon doesn't seem well-liked by this coaching staff.

The linebacking corps should see a battle in the middle -- Nate Irving, Joe Mays, Steven Johnson and Stewart Bradley are the best candidates for the mike gig.
Bubble watch

McGahee was the biggest name on the chopping block, and he's already been chopped. There are rumors the Broncos dumped him because of injuries, but it's still got to be a bit concerning to head into camp with the lack of experience they have at running back. John Fox won't be scared to carry a few running backs, but with Lance Ball, Moreno, Hillman and Montee Ball on board, we could see someone dumped here.


Unheard-of-guy to watch

The real story of Broncos middle linebacker Nate Irving dates back to his college days, when he overcame a slew of injuries suffered during a life-threatening car accident that cost him the 2009 season and managed to return back to the NC State lineup. Irving's going to get the first crack at winning the middle linebacker job in Denver, and I think you'll see him produce in a big way. Irving's a tackling machine with lateral speed and the ability to lay down devastating hits. Middle linebackers are becoming less and less important in today's passing game, but they're still necessary and Irving could provide a nice prototype for what the modern-day mike could look like. I expect a big year from him.


Biggest concerns

There's little to worry about on the offensive end, save for Manning remaining healthy for another season. And in that vein, it's worth wondering how well the group of Hillman/Ball/Moreno can pass protect for the Broncos quarterback. Running backs are almost more important for their pass-blocking ability in a Manning-run system than they are for their rushing ability. I like this group's ability to catch passes and run draws but there's some concern about the pass blocking at the NFL level.

Defensively, the loss of Dumervil could show up in a big way. Williams, Pot Roast, Derek Wolfe and Robert Ayers form an alright defensive line, but they're certainly not the most proven or studly group out there. Will the absence of Doom mean more double teams for Von Miller? Almost certainly the linebacker, who played at a DPOY level last year, will see more protection shifted his way without Dumervil on one side of the ball.

The secondary's going to be a big concern until they shake off the memories of the loss against Baltimore. Champ Bailey, Chris Harris, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Rahim Moore and Mike Adams can be a very effective group -- they weren't bad until late in the season when the lights were brightest. Seeing how they bounce back from the postseason will be fascinating.


Something to prove

Welker could fit here, what with the drama surrounding his departure from New England. But the secondary makes more sense, and, more specifically, Moore and Bailey. Moore made the critical error that allowed Joe Flacco and the Ravens to advance, while Bailey was exposed in the playoffs. I think both players are fine -- Bailey's age is certainly a factor but he was strong for most of 2012 -- but they're going to have the world watching when they line up against Baltimore's receivers to kick off 2013.

[StarDust Bum]

2013 NFL training camp preview: San Diego Chargers

Have the Chargers underachieved, or have they just struggled from losing key talent? Have the Chargers underachieved, or have they just struggled from losing key talent?

At long last, the Chargers underwent a regime change. A.J. Smith guided the ship well for many years and Norv Turner came close to pushing San Diego over the top, but ultimately the results of the last few years were nothing short of underwhelming. Enter Tom Telesco and Mike McCoy, a dynamic pairing of GM and coach that could flip the Chargers back to respectability in rather short fashion

But make no mistake: just because this is the Chargers, it doesn't mean the team is supremely laden with talent. For whatever reason, the stereotype of San Diego over the past few years generally involves the word "underachieving." The reality is, especially on offense, the talent left the building.


Key changes

Philip Rivers' decline has been the subject of much scrutiny over the last few years, but you don't have to look hard to figure out why the once elite quarterback struggled: veterans like Vincent Jackson, Darren Sproles, LaDainian Tomlinson, Michael Turner, Marcus McNeill, Louis Vasquez and Kris Dielman are all gone.

Core groups can't last forever, but Smith's inability to replenish the talent pool (hello Buster Davis, Ryan Mathews and Robert Meachem, to name a few) led to the evaporation of Rivers protection and weapons, save for Antonio Gates, who's aged the whole time as well.

Fortunately the new boss folk wisely invested in trying to help out Rivers, bringing in Max Starks from free agency and drafting D.J. Fluker out of Alabama in the first round. Whether Fluker ends up moving guard is irrelevant, because Rivers just needed help after a barely passable group managed to rank dead last in Football Outsiders Adjusted Sack Rate (it essentially gauges pass protection) during the 2012 season.

The Bolts also added a pair of potential stars in the second and third rounds. I'm on record as hating the Manti Te'o selection in the second, primarily because Terron Armstead and Menelik Watson were on the board. But the Notre Dame linebacker's drawing rave reviews from minicamp; while pre-padded practices are too early to decide whether someone can succeed, I'm willing to acquiesce that McCoy and Telesco are smart people and could end up being right. Time will tell.

The Keenan Allen selection in the third has me much more excited. With Danario Alexander, Gates, Malcom Floyd and Allen, Rivers could have a restocked shelf. Danny Woodhead could end up being a stupendous addition in the dump-off game and might see some starts if (when?) Mathews gets hurt. Ken Whisenhunt signing on as offensive coordinator won't be anything but good for Rivers' game either. If he and McCoy can't fix the former NC State standout, it might be time for the two groups to move on.

Defensively, the Chargers made some savvy moves too. The addition of Dwight Freeney was almost in direct response to the torn ACL suffered by Melvin Ingram in OTAs. Freeney can play in the 3-4 and the 4-3, and while he's older, he flashed plenty last year. If the Chargers are right about their moves on Freeney, Te'o, free-agent signee Jarrett Johnson and incumbent Donald Butler could form a nice linebacking corps. Derek Cox is a steal at cornerback ... if he can stay healthy. John Pagano sticking around should result in some nice continuity for this unit, but it's a group that needs to hit on acquisitions or it could be trouble.


Position battles

Wide receiver's pretty, um, wide open: if Vincent Brown gets healthy or Allen comes on strong or Meachem ever manages to do what the Chargers are paying him to do, they could challenge Floyd for one of the starting spots. DX should be locked as the No. 1 as long as he's healthy -- Alexander's play late last season was spectacular.

Offensive line could be interesting. If Jeromey Clary and Chad Rinehart are indeed the answer at guard, then it makes no sense to move Fluker. But his versatility could certainly help.

I'm sure the Chargers would love for Larry English to realize his potential and challenge someone on the defensive side of the ball, but it's a pretty good bet that he ends up becoming a backup again this season.


Scheme changes

As similar as things are on the defensive end with Pagano retained, they'll be completely different on the offensive end with McCoy and Whisenhunt running things. Whisenhunt has had great offenses in Pittsburgh and in Arizona before and McCoy made his name with his malleability in Denver, flipping effortlessly from Kyle Orton to Tim Tebow and then to Peyton Manning. Expect a concept-based passing offense in San Diego ( think Erhardt-Perkins but without the same complexity as the Patriots run) with a zone-read rushing attack.

McCoy's fortunate in that he'll once again fire up a new offensive scheme with a talented, cerebral, veteran quarterback already under center. Expect him to adjust to Rivers' strengths and weaknesses.

"Football's always football," McCoy said last May. "We laugh about that, because it's not that complicated. Every Monday, we call it 'Thievery Night,' you look at the touchdowns and explosive plays, see that stuff week-to-week, and see who's doing what, and take what you can. Football's still football. Everyone's running the same plays, and it's a matter of some running one concept more than another team is. It all boils down to the same thing."


Bubble watch

It's going to be fascinating to see how the Chargers handle three distinct groups: the receivers, the offensive line and the linebackers. With a major injury already occurring to Ingram, they obviously understand the importance of depth at that position, particularly in a 3-4, blitz-heavy defense. But how many roster spots will they really have once they try to create depth at receiver and offensive line, two positions that obviously are very much in flux for this roster. It seems crazy that Meachem wouldn't make the team (he will), but how much depth at wide receiver is worth sacrificing for depth at offensive line. All told the Chargers brought in nine (9!) new offensive lineman to try to revamp their biggest weakness from 2012: King Dunlap, Starks, Fluker, Chad Rinehart, Rich Ohrnberger, Colin Baxter, Brandyn Dombrowski, Michael Harris, Randy Richards and Nick Becton won't all stick around.

Properly managing the depth at these various positions will tell us a lot about how the Chargers really feel towards their new acquisitions.


Unheard-of-guy to watch

Who is Chad Rinehart, you ask? Great question. He's a converted guard with just 21 starts over the last four years (14 at guard the last two years for Buffalo) but he could be a big-time addition for the Chargers, who also brought along his former offensive line coach from the Bills in Joe D'Alessandris. If Rinehart can step in and start -- and the Chargers sure think he can -- and fill the hole created by the departure of Louis Vasquez, it'll be a monster addition for the Bolts.


Biggest concerns

The Chargers have addressed some issues this offseason by beefing up the offensive line and improving the weapons for Rivers. But those are still the two biggest concerns: healthy play from the offensive line and a semblance of pass protection in 2013 will drastically change the way that Rivers is able to play under center. With time in the pocket, he won't feel like he's forced to make a play happen and he's a good bet to cut down on the slew of turnovers that plagued him the last two years.


Something to prove

Two guys are a no-brainer here for me. There's obviously Rivers, who's coming off a pair of seasons in which he had a combined 59 turnovers. That is ... a lot. He needs this new coaching staff to get him back on track and convince folks that he can be an elite quarterback again, even at the age of 31. Rivers won't be a free agent until 2016 technically, but 2013 very much feels like a make-or-break year for him in San Diego. And Mathews, drafted to replace LdT, has never lived up to expectations. He's got two more years left on his rookie contract and it's not like Woodhead is going to straight-up replace him. But if Mathews can't step up his game and avoid injury as he has in the past few years, it's hard to imagine him lasting forever in San Diego either.

[StarDust Bum]

2013 NFL training camp preview: Kansas City Chiefs

Under new management: The Chiefs will look to regroup with coach Andy Reid and QB Alex Smith. Under new management: The Chiefs will look to regroup with coach Andy Reid and QB Alex Smith.

Few NFL organizations underwent a facelift the way the Chiefs did this offseason. Andy Reid wasn't unemployed long, getting the boot from Philadelphia and quickly landing in a favorable situation in KC, replacing Romeo Crennel and the last vestiges of an old coaching staff's regime (Crennel worked under Todd Haley, who was fired the year before).

The change was necessary. GM Scott Pioli had fallen out of favor with the fans and management after whiffing on Cassel as the savior under center. Crennel motivated as an interim in 2011, but flopped out last year. A team that some people -- no joke -- picked to win the AFC West was the worst team in football.

There wasn't any semblance of offense, aside from the frustration of not properly using Jamaal Charles. The Cassell-Brady Quinn rotation at quarterbacks was a train wreck that helped the Chiefs score more than 20 points just four teams all year. Blech.

The talent on the defensive side of the ball continues to impress (Justin Houston was a rare bright spot as he emerged last season), but Reid didn't take long to put his meaty fingerprints all over the organization.


Key changes

Pioli was shipped out of town and replaced by Reid's buddy John Dorsey. Incumbent Matt Cassel never stood a chance; he was given the boot and Reid made the bold move of trading for Alex Smith, whom he's apparently coveted since Smith was slinging passes in college at Utah. It sounds like Reid's got some read-option tricks on his sleeve; the idea of Jamaal Charles and Alex running out of the pistol is enticing regardless of how you feel about these new formations.

The defense got Smith'd up too, with Dolphins cornerback Sean Smith -- one of the more talented players in free agency -- coming to KC on a deal (three years, $16.5 million) that looks quite favorable for the Chiefs after a market never really formulated for cornerbacks. A secondary of Brandon Flowers, Smith, Eric Berry and Kendrick Lewis looks pretty formidable at this stage. Don't sleep on the additions of Mike DeVito and Geoff Schwartz along the defensive and offensive lines, respectively.

Reid also managed to make a slew of moves that kept the Chiefs' surprisingly talented core (when you consider they won two games last year anyway) together. Dwayne Bowe was given a new contract before he could hit the open market, freeing up the franchise tag for left tackle Branden Albert.

And there was, of course, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft. For the first time in his coaching career, Reid drafted an offensive lineman with a pick in the top 15. With Albert in camp, Fisher's a good bet to start on the right side of the line. Having a right tackle as the cornerstone of your first draft is weird, but it makes sense for this team's roster construction. Having an Andrew Luck or Robert Griffin III sitting atop the draft would've been ideal, naturally. But in lieu of that, Reid's built a roster that can compete right away in a division that, while not up for grabs thanks to Peyton Manning, isn't as stout as some other spots.


Position battles

The Chiefs are so odd for a two-win team. They've got the majority of their starters locked down and have a talented roster built already. Smith's the starter at quarterback, obviously, but seeing how things shake out with his possible backups could be interesting. Chase Daniel received a hefty contract in free agency to be a backup, Ricky Stanzi just never gets a chance and Tyler Bray's one of the more perplexing draftees in the 2013 class.

Knile Davis is an absolute burner who claims he's faster than Charles. He won't steal the starting job but it wouldn't be stunning if Reid let him steal some carries.

Anthony Fasano was signed as a free agent despite the presence of Tony Moeaki and could certainly challenge for the starting job. Moeaki was impressive as a rookie in 2010 but hasn't been the same since suffering a major injury in his sophomore campaign.

The biggest question mark, by far, is at wide receiver. Bowe's the unquestioned No. 1 on this roster but things get dicey after the former LSU star, especially with KC letting another of Pioli's free-agent busts, Steve Breaston, walk. Jon Baldwin was a first-round pick and he's got the talent, but is he mature enough to handle that sort of roll? Reid hasn't sounded entirely confident. Dexter McCluster's the football version of a "'tweener," not really fitting as anything more than a slot receiver for this unit. How Reid uses him will be fun to watch, but he's not the best man to challenge for the No. 2 spot. That honor goes to Donnie Avery, who had a strong season with the Colts in 2012 before signing with KC this offseason. If Avery beats out Baldwin, it's bad news bears for the youngster.


New schemes

A whole new coaching staff means a whole new scheme and the Chiefs should welcome change in this instance. Say what you want about Reid's failings in Philly during the latter stages of his run there, but the man knows what he's doing on offense. Smith will be the triggerman for Reid's west-coast, high-volume passing game. The style of play should fit Smith, who's excellent at short and intermediate throws, can put up a high completion number to pair with a low interception digit. Smith's accuracy down the field should be a concern, but Bowe probably won't care since he's finally catching passes from the first real quarterback of his pro career. Charles could flourish in Reid's system, the same way that Brian Westbrook and LeSean McCoy did with the Eagles. He's a similar-style back who excels in the passing game. Fisher's presence doesn't just beef up the line, but it provides some insurance with Albert's wonky back and, most importantly, brings some athleticism to the line. He'll be superb in the screen game for Reid and the Chiefs.

Defensively, Reid's wisely sticking with the 3-4. Though he could've opted to change things up, KC's personnel fits that scheme to well to make it worth busting up the defense at this point in time. Half the guys in the front seven -- Tyson Jackson, Dontari Poe, Derrick Johnson, Tamba Hali and Houston -- were big-time investments for that scheme. A switch now wouldn't be logical.


Bubble watch

Speaking of all those early-round picks, it's important to remember that new regime means no more loyalty for the old boss' picks. We saw that first hand this offseason as Reid let one of Pioli's previous early picks, Glenn Dorsey, bounce for San Francisco. Dorsey didn't work out well and it wasn't shocking to see him leave, but it's a reminder to guys like Jackson, Poe and anyone else who was previously locked in because of their draft status that


Unheard-of-guy to watch

Does Travis Kelce count here? More and more people are aware of third-round picks these days, and Kelce's off-field issues have drawn him some unwelcome notoriety. But on the field, he's a potential talent goldmine at a position where the Chiefs aren't completely set. Seriously, watch his highlights and you'll quickly understand exactly why Reid invested a third in this kid. His issues are personal stuff and injuries -- a year-long suspension and a hernia problem in 2012 sunk his stock. He can run block, make all the catches tight ends need to make, has a world of upside and can stretch the field while taking attention away from Bowe.


Biggest concerns

For everyone in this division, the biggest concern is having to play Peyton Manning twice -- the Broncos put everyone else in the AFC West at a distinct disadvantage when it comes to trying to win their division. Specifically to the Chiefs, however, the primary concern I see is Alex Smith continuing to resurrect his career and doing so away from the magical quarterback fixing umbrella that is Jim Harbaugh. Smith was headed straight for a non-Cantonized bust when Harbs took over in San Francisco, and the QB Whisperer's presence drastically changed the way Smith looked on the field. Andy Reid can get a lot out of quarterbacks, but assuming that Smith will magically solve the Chiefs issues at quarterback is a big leap of faith. They also need to find Smith weapons and doing so will obviously help him improve his game, but this season likely hinges on the performance of the former No. 1 overall pick, now on his second stop and umpteenth offensive coordinator.


Something to prove

Tyson Jackson and Dontari Poe aren't the same age but they do share many characteristics. Namely, they were drafted by Scott Pioli's regime and they haven't lived up to expectations quite yet. Poe's only played one year, of course, while Jackson is heading into his fifth season. Stepping up their game from "middling defensive lineman drafted in the top half of the first round during the NFL Draft" to "high draft picks worthy of being cornerstone pieces of defense" is critical for them if they want to hang around KC and justify their selections.

Smith fits here too, and it wouldn't be fair to not include Reid as well. He left Philadelphia somewhat in disgrace, with a magnificent run coming to a sputtering end. If he can flip the Chiefs around in quick fashion -- and I believe that he can -- it'll do wonders toward resorting his reputation as one of the top coaches in the league. And it'll do even more for Chiefs fans who've pined for success in recent years ... and never really got it.

[StarDust Bum]

2013 NFL training camp preview: Oakland Raiders

The Raiders enter camp with a whole new look thanks to lots of offseason roster changes. The Raiders enter camp with a whole new look thanks to lots of offseason roster changes.

Into the crevasse. That was the only approach Reggie McKenzie could take when he was put in charge of the Raiders, a wholesale disaster of a football team in 2011 when he took over. Unfortunately for McKenzie, that aspect of the team hasn't changed a bit. The Raiders are still awful and, for my money, are in a dogfight with the Jaguars in the Clown for Clowney Sweepstakes.

That's just what happens when you look at your roster, realize that it's full of bloated contracts for mediocre talent and set the whole thing on fire. This upcoming season shouldn't be about hope for Raiders fans, unless you're hopeful they get the No. 1 overall pick and can lock down Jadeveon Clowney or Teddy Bridgewater.

Not everything is awful, however. The Raiders had a first-round pick for the first time under McKenzie this year. And they used it on D.J. Hayden, a cornerback with heart issues; how he performs could weigh heavily on the GM's future. There's talent on the offensive line, what with Jared Veldheer having developed into one of the better (and more underrated) left tackles in the game. Darren McFadden is an All-World running back when he's in the right system and healthy. The former should occur in the power scheme Oakland plans to implement this year. The latter is about as likely as the sun hitting the sleep timer one day.


Key changes

There are reasons for excitement this year. But the heavy roster purge makes it difficult to truly get excited: Oakland dumped or let walk wideout Darrius Heyward-Bey, safety Michael Huff, linebacker Philip Wheeler, defensive lineman Desmond Bryant, defensive lineman Dave Tollefson, tight end Brandon Myers, punter Shane Lechler, defensive tackle Richard Seymour, cornerback Shawntae Spencer and linebacker Rolando McClain. (I think that's mostly everyone; all told the Raiders will have $32 million of dead money on their roster in 2013.)

Then there's the trade of Carson Palmer to the Cardinals: after giving up a first- and second-round pick for Palmer during the 2010 season, Oakland was forced to peddle the unhappy quarterback for peanuts this offseason. Lament the lack of talent in that group all you want, but the team was heavily invested in those players and ripping apart the roster never makes winning any easier.

The additions don't exactly add up: Matt Flynn is in at quarterback as is rookie Tyler Wilson. Saving the day is a big ask from that duo. Nick Roach, Jason Hunter, Vance Walker, Pat Sims, Mike Jenkins and Charles Woodson -- who, mind you, was drafted in 1998 -- are the pick-ups in free agency who will hope to patch together some decent defensive games.

Greg Olsen replaces Greg Knapp as offensive coordinator, a move that should help the offense -- the zone-running attack Knapp (almost inexplicably) implemented didn't do McFadden any favors. While Olsen was in charge of the Rams offense in 2006 and 2007, former St. Louis running back Steven Jackson had two of his best seasons ever, including a 1,528-yard year in 2006. Buccaneers fans will remember the sudden emergence of LeGarrette Blount as a 1,000-yard back during a strong year for Tampa Bay.


Position battles

Quarterback's the most intriguing spot: Flynn's the De facto starter because of, um, experience? Flynn's two career starts lead all four of the Raiders quarterbacks in career starts. (Think about that: Oakland has more quarterbacks -- four -- than those quarterbacks have career starts -- three. What could possibly go wrong?) But it wouldn't be that surprising if Terrelle Pryor or Wilson or, heck, even Matt McGloin managed to win the job. Flynn seems the safest, Pryor is the best bet to have a funky offense fashioned around him, Wilson has the most upside, and McGloin can't be ruled out because of everyone else on the depth chart. At least there's this: the last time Flynn was beat out in training camp by a rookie named Wilson it worked out really well for everyone involved. Except Flynn anyway.

Rookie Menelik Watson, who's raw but has a world of upside, is an interesting spot to try and win a tackle position on the right side against free-agent addition Khalif Barnes.

Tight end, with Richard Gordon, David Ausberry and Nick Kasa currently topping the depth chart, is wide open. So is cornerback -- Hayden, Tracy Porter, Jenkins and Joselio Hanson could end up in any kind of combination on the field for Oakland.


New schemes

Olsen's addition will mean an entirely different offense. McFadden's been meh in the zone-read scheme during his career in the NFL and he's been impressive in the power-run scheme. If he stays healthy, it could be a nice season. If Olsen's smart, he'll keep things flexible for the quarterbacks -- neither one is talented enough to warrant rigidly locking down a system.


Bubble watch

How about who's *not* on the bubble for the roster? McKenzie made it abundantly clear with his slew of chopping-block moves this offseason no one is above reproach when it comes to slicing, dicing and remaking the roster. That being said, a bad roster also provides an advantage for veterans and lower-name players to end up making the team. Connor Vernon's a talented possession receiver from Duke who might underwhelm with athleticism but will end up being a quality NFL player; not finding a way to get him on the roster would be a mistake, especially with a large, underwhelming group of wideouts that includes Denarius Moore, Jacoby Ford, Rod Streater (sleeper much?), Juron Criner and Josh Cribbs ahead of him.


Unheard-of-guy to watch

Gonna throw out Vernon again here: he's the ACC's all-time leader in receptions, he blossomed at Duke (particularly when David Cutcliffe took over) and I have a hard time believing he won't contribute in a meaningful way to an NFL roster at some point in his career. Maybe I'm wrong and Vernon never amounts to much, but a guy with his statistical pedigree, work ethic and football smarts doesn't just fall by the wayside.

Wilson's another guy to watch too -- it might be overblown at this point (it is July after all) to discuss how he looks in minicamps versus Flynn and the other quarterbacks. But the Raiders aren't exactly a modicum of stability right now. Wilson can come out, look good and steal the starting job from Flynn this year. When it comes to having a young, rebuilt team like this, nothing inspires quite like a successful rookie quarterback. And while Wilson's stats dipped precipitously in his final year at Arkansas, he'd lost Bobby Petrino, most of his wideouts and he was getting pummeled every time he dropped back. It wasn't that long ago he was a top prospect.


Biggest concerns

Ummmm, everything? If you're not worried about this Raiders team, you're doing it wrong. And that leads me to the biggest concern for Oakland -- a lack of patience in the rebuild job. I don't *know* that McKenzie is the guy for the job, but I think he's rebuilding the only way he could have and that's by setting everything on fire and suffering through a few tough years. Teams can rebuild on the fly in the NFL, but doing it after dealing away a No. 1 pick for Palmer is infinitely more difficult than your normal situation. Hayden and Watson not working out, or Flynn and an inexperienced group of quarterbacks absolutely flopping (even though they didn't cost much for the most part) or the Raiders simply not winning any games could lead to owner Mark Davis, recently of a literal PR nightmare, getting antsy with his trigger finger.

Other than that, the Raiders have an aging and/or inexperienced defense, no star power, a new offensive scheme, one prominent skill position player who is consistently suffering injuries and a roster pretty much bereft of talent. So no big deal really.


Something to prove

McFadden really stands out from the perspective that he's entering a contract year and has only eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark rushing once in his career. In 2010 he ran for 1,157 yards (and seven touchdowns) while playing (and starting) in 13 games, the most of his career. It'll be a tall task to repeat that impressive season, even with a new blocking system in place. McFadden averaged just 3.3 yards per carry last year and doesn't exactly have the stoutest offensive line to help him out in Oakland, Veldheer's presence aside. Producing at a high clip for a full season would equate to some big money in free agency but it's hard to imagine anyone being willing to trust McFadden for a full season right now.

[StarDust Bum]

2012 Season Recap - Part I

July 11, 2013

The 2012 regular season was completed months ago – so let’s take a closer look at my models and statistics, review some of the key data points, and discuss which indicators are solid when projecting strengths of certain teams.

The first metrics we will examine are my performance ratings model (PR). Below shows each team, broken down by offense, defense and total performance. In addition to those metrics I have also included blended SOS (Strength of Schedule) rating (1 is the toughest, and my formula for blended SOS is 75% opponents performance ratings and 25% opponents record), along with straight up (SU) wins for each team – the teams are sorted according to total performance rating.

Performance Ratings
Team Offense Rank Defense Rank Total Rank SOS Wins
DEN 52.2 3 50.4 1 102.6 1 25 13
SF 47.8 5 47.4 2 95.3 2 18 11
SEA 48.4 4 44.9 5 93.3 3 8 11
NE 55.4 1 35.1 25 90.5 4 24 12
HOU 45.2 10 44.2 6 89.4 5 27 12
GB 46.0 8 43.3 7 89.3 6 20 11
WAS 53.1 2 33.8 28 86.9 7 22 10
PIT 39.6 20 47.3 3 86.9 8 31 8
CHI 38.9 22 45.8 4 84.6 9 10 10
ATL 46.4 6 36.4 21 82.8 10 29 13
CAR 45.3 9 37.3 17 82.6 11 11 7
CIN 39.4 21 43.1 8 82.5 12 28 10
BAL 41.7 15 40.0 13 81.7 13 13 10
DAL 42.7 13 38.0 15 80.7 14 7 8
DET 43.2 12 36.9 18 80.1 15 6 4
MIN 42.1 14 37.5 16 79.6 16 6 10
BUF 41.6 16 36.3 22 77.8 17 31 6
NYG 44.3 11 33.2 29 77.5 18 4 9
TB 40.8 17 36.7 19 77.5 18 19 7
SD 36.9 24 40.3 12 77.2 20 27 7
NYJ 33.2 29 42.5 10 75.8 21 17 6
STL 37.4 23 38.2 14 75.7 22 2 7
MIA 34.7 26 40.7 11 75.4 23 21 7
IND 39.8 19 34.9 26 74.7 24 32 11
PHI 39.9 18 34.3 27 74.2 25 14 4
NO 46.3 7 27.5 32 73.8 26 3 7
OAK 36.8 25 35.8 23 72.5 27 23 4
KC 34.4 27 35.3 24 69.7 28 15 2
CLE 32.6 30 36.4 20 69.0 29 9 5
ARI 24.5 32 43.0 9 67.5 30 1 5
TEN 34.3 28 31.9 30 66.2 31 13 6
JAC 30.4 31 31.9 30 62.3 32 16 2


The above figures represent how each team stacked up in the statistics I utilize to track true team performance. Teams are rated on a scale of 160 per game, 80 on both offense and defense – so team’s that show a rating of 80 played average football, or an 8-8 type team over the course of a season.

A very important factor when developing any models to numerically gauge team performance is to include both stats that measure “per attempt” depending on the metric, but also taking a look at “total” performance in the same stat. For example, if one was to only use yards per rush and attempt to decipher if a team is solid running the ball with only that stat you could be misled – if team A rushes six times for 42 yards that would show 7 yards per carry, but if team B rushes for 100 yards on 20 carries that would show 5 yards per carry – and more than likely team B would represent a stronger running game then team A even though if you only use the yards per rush category you may not reach that conclusion. Let’s apply this reasoning to an example from the 2012 regular season:

Denver was the #14 rushing offense in the NFL according to my statistics. There was a significant difference between their yards per rush ranking of #27 vs. their total rushing yards ranking of #15. Why would there be this discrepancy? One reason is likely because Denver was often ahead in their games, and more relying on their ground game to stall out the clock when the game had already been decided versus using their rushing attack as their main mode of transportation during the critical stages of each game.

In addition, SOS is very important; it is actually flat out critical to be able to see how strong a team’s opponents are before rushing to state one team is better because their statistics say so. That phenomenon also needs to be applied to unit analysis – what I mean by that is when you are breaking teams down into rushing, passing, or any other bucket you may use. Once again let’s apply this reasoning to an example from the 2012 regular season – here are the top 5 rushing offenses according to my numbers last year, with the corresponding SOS for their opponents rush defense:

Washington: #1 rushing offense vs. #26 opponent’s rushing defense
Minnesota: #2 rushing offense vs. #15 opponent’s rushing defense
San Francisco: #3 rushing offense vs. #22 opponent’s rushing defense
Seattle: #4 rushing offense vs. #7 opponent’s rushing defense
New England: #5 rushing offense vs. #22 opponent’s rushing defense

After including category specific SOS we can see that although the Redskins posted the #1 rushing offense in the NFL according to my stats they accomplished this feat versus the 7th easiest schedule of opponent rushing defenses; conversely, we see the Seahawks at #4 in rushing offense, but they performed at that high level vs. the 7th toughest schedule of opponent rushing defense. As you can clearly see, including stat/category specific SOS can really assist in testing the true strength of a team’s performance.

Let’s take a closer look at the above table, and focus on the playoff teams. The top seven teams made the playoffs, then three of the next 4four missed (Atlanta only team that earned a berth); the final four spots were comprised of teams rated #12 Cincinnati, #13 Baltimore, #16 Minnesota and #24 Indianapolis – which is relatively in line with the type of team rankings we see making the playoffs over the last couple seasons. For comparative purposes Denver’s mark of 102.6 was the highest full season rating since this model has been tracking results commencing in 2008; on the flip side Jacksonville’s rating of 62.3, the worst of the 2012 NFL season, was still above the worst rating of the 2011 season, Indianapolis, who checked in at 58.4. Speaking of the Colts, see more about their 2012 season.

Next, let’s use the overall performance ratings and compare those to certain team’s corresponding records – indentifying which teams stand out for good or bad as that could be a solid indicator of upcoming success of failure:

Pittsburgh (8-8): The Steelers were easily the highest ranked team not to post an above .500 record. For the 2012 Steelers the problem was not on defense, where they continued to post solid results, checking in at #3; it was an offense that was just #20 in the NFL, as they struggled through many injuries and an inability to run the football (rushing offense was #25 in the NFL). In an improving division that has seen Cincinnati reach the playoffs in each of the last two seasons, along with the defending champion Baltimore Ravens, they need to get back to their bread and butter, running the football, to execute a turnaround.

Carolina (7-9): The Panthers were #11 in the performance ratings, suggesting a borderline playoff team. However, their 2012 story was that of a tough schedule – their SOS was #11, with only two teams ahead of them in the performance ratings facing a tougher schedule. Carolina suffered many tough, close defeats last season – and if those games flip, and the defense continues improving, there is a lot to like about Carolina’s chances heading into 2013.

Detroit (4-12): The Lions were the biggest underachieving record team of 2012 posting the third worst record in the NFL, yet settling into the #15 spot in the performance ratings – which typically corresponds to that of an 8-8 squad. What impacted the Lions? First was an SOS that was rated #6 in the NFL – notice no team above the Lions in the performance ratings faced a tougher schedule. Secondly and almost of equal importance was a TOM (Turnover Margin) that was (16) on the season – good for 3rd worst in the NFL. Time and time again we stress the point about TOM – perform well in that area and your chances for a .500 or above season are greatly enhanced; perform poorly there, especially amongst the worst in the NFL and you have no chance at reaching .500.

Indianapolis (11-5): No question about it the Colts were the biggest benefactors from breaks as far as records go last year posting 11 wins, and reaching the playoffs in rookie QB Andrew Luck’s inaugural season. The Colts rated just #24 overall in the performance ratings – a spot that does not even correlate to a .500 season, let alone a playoff berth. What drove their record so much higher than their true performance? The #1 factor was their SOS of #32, the easiest in the NFL. Every other statistic I track pointed to a sub .500 record, so be very aware of a potential big drop by the Colts in 2013.

[StarDust Bum]

2012 Season Recap - Part II

July 11, 2013

Top 5 Offenses

1) New England - No surprise here as the Patriots and Tom Brady were rated #2 offensively in each of the prior 3 seasons before securing the top spot last year. The top rated offense was fueled by a rushing attack that was ranked #5, passing game ranked #3, and a miscellaneous statistical bucket I track (for stats that are not either directly related to passing or rushing such as total first downs, time of possession, turnovers, etc…..) that was rated #1 in the NFL. Add it all up and the Patriots were the most robust offense in the NFL last season – and much more efficient in their rushing attack than many perhaps expected to see.

2) Washington - Another rookie quarterback, this time Robert Griffin III, led the Redskins to the playoffs and their best offense rating since I have been tracking these statistics. Previously, starting in 2011 and working backwards, the Skins offense was ranked #24, #29, #22 in those three seasons – which just goes to show what a dynamic QB can do for a franchise, especially when working with one of the best offensive minds in the game, Mike Shanahan.

3) Denver - Like the Redskins above, the Broncos had not enjoyed an offense ranked in the Top 20 in any one season since I started tracking this in 2009 until last season, when new QB Peyton Manning enjoyed a huge season and led Denver to the #3 overall offense in the NFL. Although the Broncos were just #14 in rushing offense, their passing offense led the NFL, along with their miscellaneous statistics. Look for things to only improve offensively this season in the Mile High city as top slot wide receiver Wes Welker left the Patriots to join rival Denver this offseason.

4) Seattle - Continuing with the theme of solid QB play for the top offenses in 2012, the Seahawks, led by rookie QB Russell Wilson, also make their first appearance in the Top 23 offenses in the NFL since my first season tracking these statistics in 2009. Like Brady, Griffin III, and P. Manning above, strong and smart QB play, along with a balanced offense led the ‘Hawks resurgence last season.

5) San Francisco - Perhaps it’s surprising to see a pair of NFC West teams among the Top 5 offenses in the NFL – but that is precisely what occurred last season as just like the Seahawks, the Niners made a move at QB inserting Colin Kaepernick and the offense took off with his insertion. The 49ers continue with their trademark smash-mouth football of HC Jim Harbaugh, checking in with the #3 rushing attack – however, the addition of the athletic Kaepernick really pushed the offense to that next level, a key reason SF reached the Super Bowl last season. CK is the 3rd first year starting QB of 2012 to lead a Top 5 offense.

Top 5 Defenses

1) Denver - Most people were drawn to the Broncos offense believing that is the unit that drove their 13-3 top mark in the NFL last season (tied with Atlanta). But when breaking down the numbers the Broncos defense was the bigger part of the equation, checking in with the top rated unit in the NFL. Denver truly had a dominant defense during the regular season checking in with the #1 rushing defense, #3 passing defense, and the #2 miscellaneous defense. And the two statistics that are extremely critical to success in the NFL on the defensive side of the ball, yards per pass attempt allowed and sacks – the Broncos led the NFL in both areas. With perhaps playing with a lead in 2013 even more so than in 2012 look for the Broncos defense to once again get after the passer, force turnovers, and be among the best units in the NFL.

2) San Francisco - In 2011 SF had the #4 overall defense in the NFL; in 2012 that unit moved up to #2, only trailing the Broncos because of a pass defense that was ranked just #7 in the NFL. As a sidebar the Broncos did truly have the better pass defense last season according to both the statistics, and stat specific SOS as Denver faced the #16 schedule versus opponents passing offenses, while San Francisco faced the #19 schedule versus opponents passing offenses. San Francisco was one of only two teams (Denver) to rank in the Top 7 of all 4 buckets tracked.

3) Pittsburgh - Second straight season the Steelers posted the 3rd best defense in the NFL, and the fourth straight season that PIT has posted a total defensive rank in the Top 4. The Steelers continued playing championship level defense in 2012, but it was the offense that betrayed them settling in at #20 – the first time they were outside the Top 13 since inception in 2009. Look for HC Mike Tomlin and his defense to continue playing strong heading into 2013, and for the Steelers to contend for at least a playoff berth come December.

4) Chicago - The Bears posted their best mark since inception in 2009, settling in at #4 overall defensively. However, like Pittsburgh, Chicago’s offense checked in at #22, which is ironically consistent with each of the prior three seasons (’11 - #21, ’10 - #23, ’09 - #24). Until the Bears improve on that side of the football they will struggle to compete with the elite of the NFC – which is a big reason ownership fired defensive minded HC Lovie Smith and brought in offensive mind Mark Trestman to run the team. How Trestman communicates and works with QB Jay Cutler will go a long way to deciding how successful a season the Bears enjoy in a rugged NFC North.

5) Seattle - Like division rival San Francisco and former division rival Denver, the Seahawks are one of three teams to have ranked in the Top 5 both offensively and defensively last season. The Seahawks defense has climbed the rankings steadily in each season since 2009 (#22, #21, #12, #5) – and a lot of the credit for that has to go to both HC Pete Carroll, along with former defensive coordinator Gus Bradley (now head coach in Jacksonville). New Seattle DC Dan Quinn joins the staff from the Florida Gators where he was DC last year, and how quickly the team adjusts to his schemes will tell a big part of the success Seattle could enjoy in 2013.

[StarDust Bum]

2013 NFL training camp preview: Washington Redskins

July 3, 2013 8:50 PM ET


Behind rising stars like Robert Griffin III and Alfred Morris, the Redskins perked up in 2012. Behind rising stars like Robert Griffin III and Alfred Morris, the Redskins perked up in 2012.

Is this Washington's year?

It might be. My belief: Robert Griffin III will return to football at an almost normal level. I don't think we'll see much of a difference at all.

If that does happen Washington is primed to make a surprise run similar to what Seattle did. The NFC East isn't dominant. Washington's defense could be better than people think and maybe keep them close in games against potential playoff foes like Green Bay or San Francisco.

Yes, it could happen. This could be Washington's year.


Key changes

Washington had no salary cap room this offseason and didn't sign one truly big free agent. Not one. But the Redskins did something else perhaps more important. They kept almost all of their own players from leaving for other teams.

This is a monumental thing because what has mostly changed within this organization from past years under owner Dan Snyder is that the team is drafting and collecting top talent once again. The raw talent on this team is becoming on par with other top organizations. Washington no longer drafts stupidly or chases 65-year-old free agents.

Washington didn't have a first-round pick in this past draft, but some of their choices could still have a significant impact on the season. Second-rounder David Amerson is 6-1, 205 pounds and runs a 4.3 40. He likely won't crack the starting lineup early, but there's a solid chance he will see significant playing time.

The team will be helped even more with its third-round pick, tight end Jordan Reed. Reed is one of these new types of players at the position -- speedy with the athleticism of a wideout.

Washington can pair Reed with Fred Davis and give teams matchup nightmares. If Washington does what a handful of others teams do and sometimes use two tights and two backs, well, that could pose a highly formidable offense.
Position battles

This is one of the few teams in football where the key positions are set. There won't be great many battles. It's one of the things that makes this team so formidable this season. They can spend camp fine-tuning instead of working in wholesale changes.


New schemes

The change in offense will come with Robert Griffin III. By all indications, not only is his knee healing well, it's also healing quickly. If he won't be at 100 percent by the start of the season, he will be damn close.

What the Washington coaches will do is not change how Griffin plays but slightly alter it. He'll pass more and that part of his game is sometimes forgotten. Griffin is an excellent passer because he can be highly accurate.

The coaches want Griffin to be more like Aaron Rodgers. Use that athletic ability to shift in the pocket.

Don't misunderstand. There will still be lots of read-option. They will use it more to fool opponents and then throw deep downfield than run it and cross their fingers, hoping he doesn't get hurt again.


Bubble watch

No key veterans are in jeopardy or on the bubble, but there is one to watch and that's linebacker London Fletcher. This is just an appreciation of the fact he's spent 16 years in the NFL at a horribly violent position. This will probably be his last year.
Unheard-of-guy to watch

Defensive back E.J. Biggers, a seventh round pick in Tampa who signed with Washington as a free agent, could provide some critical depth for the team.


Biggest concerns

The secondary. It's shaky, to say the least. What the team wants to see is more steady production from DeAngelo Hall. He's the key. If he can make extra plays from the slot, the secondary could improve dramatically.
Something to prove

Griffin wants to prove that he can be as good as he was last season. He knows there is doubt. He has expressed to teammates, I'm told, that he wants to be another example of how a player can come back and be the same after knee surgery. He wants to be, he has said privately, another Adrian Peterson. Can he do it?

Yeah, he can do it.

[StarDust Bum]

2013 NFL training camp preview: Dallas Cowboys

July 3, 2013 9:22 PM ET


After an 8-8 season in 2012, it's time for the Cowboys to find their potential. After an 8-8 season in 2012, it's time for the Cowboys to find their potential.

This year will be one of the most significant seasons in recent team history. It's clear that owner Jerry Jones continues to be less patient and increasingly irritated with the team's mediocrity. They haven't played in a Super Bowl since 1996 and Jones continues to hear the reason the team won was because of ex-coach Jimmy Johnson.

So Jones will not wait much longer for results from this coaching regime. One thing about the Cowboys' upcoming season is pretty clear: If Jason Garrett doesn't make the playoffs, he'll likely be fired. Players know this. The coaches know this. And that increases the pressure on everyone.


Key changes

The problem with the Cowboys is that while they’ve made some solid changes to the roster -- changes that in theory should help Dallas considerably -- one needed change wasn’t made: Jerry Jones still owns the team.

Jerry Jones sometimes -- check that, a lot of times -- interferes with the normal functions of the coaching staff. That one change, Jones ceasing to interfere, is why the Cowboys may still fail to advance deep into the playoffs.

Jones stripped Garrett of play-calling, duties Garrett held since 2007. Garrett was actually struggling with those duties. Jones is the owner and it's within his rights. It’s how it was done. And Jones basically told the media before Garrett did.

The unusual aspect of Jones’ actions cannot be overstated. Ask almost anyone in coaching or personnel around the sport and they will say this type of situation is untenable. They will also say Jones is the biggest reason the Cowboys have just one playoff victory in the 2000s.

So expect another interesting year in Dallas. Tony Romo, coming off a fat new contract extension, will have maybe more pressure than ever.

Yet there is the possibility that a myriad of changes could save everyone’s behind. The biggest come on defense. Coordinator Rob Ryan was fired and with him went his 3-4 defense. In comes Monte Kiffin and his 4-3.

The offense could still be formidable. Wide receiver Dez Bryant no longer quits on his routes and Miles Austin, when healthy, is still a top receiver. Romo does choke with almost sun-up and sun-down regularity, but he is also highly effective and dangerous. If somehow he can cut down on the turnovers, Dallas would be a playoff team every year -- despite Jones’ meddling.


Position battles

There is one of great significance and it’s at right tackle between Jermey Parnell and Doug Free. Free recently took a 50 percent paycut of his base salary. During OTAs, both players split time at the position. Since Romo spent so much time running for his life last season, the Cowboys better get this decision right.


New schemes

The switch to the 4-3 should greatly benefit the Cowboys but, more importantly, the switch to Kiffin will. Ryan was an egomaniac who wanted his scheme to be the star. Kiffin is all about the players. He’s freed them up from the technicalities and basically just told them: go get the quarterback. Go stop the run. Just ... go.

One other thing to look for in Dallas this season: Kiffin’s defenses almost always lead the NFL in forcing turnovers.
Bubble watch

There truly is only one person on the bubble in Dallas and that’s the head coach. Another year without making the postseason and Garrett is gone.


Unheard-of-guy to watch

Dwayne Harris returned punts about halfway through last season and showed such promise that it would not be a shock if he became a household name this year -- both as a special teams player and at wide receiver.
Biggest concerns

Handling the pressure. It is amazing when you compare the Cowboys to their biggest division rival, the Giants, how one team handles pressure versus the other. The Giants, most of the time, come up big. The Cowboys, most of the time, come up microscopic. What could change that is Kiffin. His calm demeanor tends to infect an entire franchise.
Something to prove

Again, it’s Romo. It’s always Romo. In some ways, it’s unfair. But still, it’s Romo. The $100 million contract only increases the weight on his shoulder pads even more.

[StarDust Bum]

2013 NFL training camp preview: Philadelphia Eagles

July 3, 2013 8:33 PM ET


From Michael Vick to DeSean Jackson to Chip Kelly, questions surround the Eagles this preseason. From Michael Vick to DeSean Jackson to Chip Kelly, questions surround the Eagles this preseason.

If the Eagles can find a decent quarterback (and that's a big if), and if they can keep that quarterback healthy (if it's Mike Vick, that's a huge if), and if Chip Kelly's offense can work (gigantic if) then the player who could have a monster year is wide receiver DeSean Jackson.

There continues to be talk that Jackson has a chip on his shoulder and this offseason he's worked as hard as ever. Jackson is still an intimidating weapon and if there's a miracle, and Kelly can reproduce a reasonable facsimile of his college offense, Jackson could be the one to benefit the most.


Key changes

For the first time since 1999, Andy Reid will not be coaching the Eagles. Think about that for a moment. This is a landmark year for the organization and it is also potentially a chaotic one. Chip Kelly is the coach now and he promises a more up-tempo style of offense. But many a college coach has promised to transform the NFL with their college-y ideas and many have failed. See: Spurrier, Steve, among others.

Kelly does inherit a team with talent. The cupboard, despite Philadelphia's dismal record last year, is not bare. LeSean McCoy missed four games last year but still had 1,213 total yards and five scores. What Kelly will have to do is patch an offensive line that was constantly injured last season. The quarterback situation is a mess. It's basically an open competition that Mike Vick will likely win but even if he does, Vick doesn't stay healthy. Fourth-round pick Matt Barkley will see playing time, maybe a significant amount.

The most interesting thing to watch will be Kelly. He wants to run 80 to 100 plays a game, which will never consistently happen. For the past 30 years, the average number of offensive NFL plays has been in the 60s. The Patriots last season once ran 92. That was considered Haley's comet territory. To run that many plays weekly is impossible and would lead to Kelly's offense being physically battered. There wouldn't be enough players to finish a season.


Position battles

The quarterback spot. That's the biggest. There are players on the Eagles who believe that Kelly will do everything in his power to name Barkley the starter.


New schemes

For all of its alleged fast pace and openness, Kelly will utilize two (and sometimes three) tight ends to shore up a shaky offensive line. It's yet another attempt by a team to duplicate the Rob Gronkowski/Aaron Hernandez tight end tandem that was the best in football until injuries and homicide charges destroyed it.

All indications are that the team will switch from a 4-3 to a 3-4. Philadelphia wants to do on defense what the Eagles will try on offense -- keep the game up-tempo and the team in attack mode.


Bubble watch

Tight end Clay Harbor spent time this offseason practicing at outside linebacker. Jason Avant, a wide receiver, practiced several times in the secondary. When the new coach puts a player at a different position, well, that does not bode well for the future of those players.


Unheard-of-guy to watch

Isaac Sopoaga was a crucial free-agent pickup because he's a ferocious run stopper.


Biggest concerns

Where to begin? Can Vick stay healthy? Can the offensive line? Can DeSean Jackson?

Most of all, will Kelly's schemes hold up?


Something to prove

This is for certain: Around the league, few coaches think Kelly will succeed. Coaches are a highly cynical bunch. They think the daily rigors of the sport will beat Kelly's schemes into oblivion and he'll be chased back to college. It will be up to Kelly to prove them wrong.

[StarDust Bum]

2013 NFL training camp preview: New York Giants

July 3, 2013 9:08 PM ET


The Giants have all the tools to succeed in 2013, so long as they stay healthy. The Giants have all the tools to succeed in 2013, so long as they stay healthy.

The Giants offense will be solid. It was so banged up last year the odds of that happening a second straight year are slim. The odds of Eli Manning not making the playoffs are slim. He's too good.

The greater question is the defense. It's also solid but if you talk to people around the sport the concern remains Jason Pierre-Paul's surgically repaired back. The feeling about Pierre-Paul, despite a down year last season, is that he's one of the great defensive weapons in football. Players like Mathias Kiwanuka are fine but they're not JPP.


Key changes

Last season for the Giants was, many believe in football, more of an anomaly than a predictor of things to come. The Giants went 3-5 in the second half of the year mostly because of injuries to key players like Hakeem Nicks. The Giants at times looked slow and old (even though they're not). The organization, in many ways, is the NFC equivalent of the Baltimore Ravens. Both general managers are at the top of their games, and don't mind releasing key veterans for slightly unproven talent. Giants general manager Jerry Reese may be the best at building team chemistry.

This season will be a true test of those skills. They dumped Ahmad Bradshaw and went with David Wilson. Wilson has playing experience but Bradshaw was one of the most underrated runners in the sport. Injuries kept him from being consistently great. They also have Andre Brown at the position. Where the Giants will prosper greatly, once again, is the interior of the defensive line. The signing of 305-pound defensive end Cullen Jenkins joins a line that is terrific at stopping the run. The pass rush is perhaps another story.

There likely won't be drama at the wide receiver position for camp. Nicks will show and Victor Cruz signed his restricted free tender so he'll be there. That receiving tandem remains one of the top ones in football when healthy.

One scout believes quarterback Eli Manning, with healthy receivers, and an explosive Wilson, will be this year's league MVP. If that happened the Giants would be back in the playoffs.


Position battles

The Giants drafted quarterback Ryan Nassib out of Syracuse. If Nassib shows even a modicum of ability, he'll beat out David Carr.

The Giants also drafted Juston Pugh and it's possible he could beat out David Diehl at right tackle (though my money is on Diehl).


New schemes

The Giants won't change a thing on either side of the ball. There's a feeling in the organization that injuries were the main problem last season, not scheme. It's possible the Giants run the ball more but they always go into camp saying that and then they turn the offense over to Manning. And why not.


Bubble watch

Diehl is a player to watch here. So is Carr. While Giants management has shown the propensity to go with younger and healthier stars, Coughlin usually sticks with reliable veterans as much as possible once camp and the season begins. This is a team where you simply won't see a great many veteran players shown the door.


Unheard-of-guy to watch

It may be difficult to call a guy who had an appearance in Jackass 3D unknown, but to many kicker Josh Brown isn't a household name yet he will play a key part in the team's season. Lawrence Tynes hit overtime kicks to get the Giants to a Super Bowl. He was released and Brown was signed. The Giants believe Brown gives them a little more distance on field-goal tries.


Biggest concerns

Nicks once possessed blazing speed but there are signs that he's slowing. If Nicks can't be, well, Nicks then it changes the entire dynamic of the passing game. Nicks draws so many double teams it opens up everything else for the offense.


Something to prove

It's Justin Tuck. He had four sacks last year and there's a loud undercurrent in football that he's basically done. While it's silly to doubt a consummate professional like Tuck, there is no question opposing coaches and scouts think he's in a free fall.

If there is one team that's engaged its cloaking device this offseason, and gone so far under the radar while teams like Seattle, Washington and San Francisco have gotten all of the press, it's the Giants. And that's exactly where they want to be.