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Hoops YTD 50-36 +8.5 units
3* 0-1 -3.3 units
2* 1-3 -4.6 units
1* 49-32 +16.4 units
NBA 45-34 +5.7 units
College 5-2 +2.8 units
Playoffs 9-6 +6.0 units
Futures 1-0 +3.6 units
Pending:
3* Heat To Win Championship -130
When I made this bet and posted this play before Tuesday's game, part of the strategy was to be able to hedge back in game 7, or take SA plus points and go for a middle. But there's no hedging here. I think Miami wins and covers. San Antonio's collapse was epic. Their free throw shooting was abysmal and Tiago Splitter may have to go the rest of his life knowing if he could have made a free throw his team would have been NBA champions. That's a lot to bounce back from.
There is a strong long term trend to play the home team in NBA game sevens (although some upsets have come the last few years).
San Antonio is overmatched and showing signs of age (Duncan's disappearing act the last 20 minutes of game six; Ginobilli a non-factor) but plays the best team basketball in the NBA and has a major coaching advantage here. Miami is all banged up, Wade's knee is shot (look for major surgery in the off-season), Chris Bosh isn't scoring much. Still, they have the best player in the game and decent play from role players like Cole, Miller, Birdman and Chalmers.
But the big edge I think will be in matchups. san Antonio has been ignoring Ray Allen all series, defying him to launch his three point shots. That worked until it didn't work. I think Popovich will be forced to guard Allen outside tonight, providing a big boost to the inside play of Lebron, Bosh and Wade.
If I didn't have a spectacular bet riding (essentially laying -130 at pick 'em), I'd play Miami minus the points. That's my recommendation. But I'm not piling on, I'm a conservative bettor and will stand pat with the big play I have laying. It would be a great end to an excellent season for me that would have been better if not for poor picks on my 2* and 3* plays.
MY RECOMMENDATION FOR ANYBODY WITHOUT ANY PENDING FUTURE ACTION IS TO TAKE THE HEAT AND LAY THE POINTS. I'LL CALL IT MIAMI BY 11.
3* 0-1 -3.3 units
2* 1-3 -4.6 units
1* 49-32 +16.4 units
NBA 45-34 +5.7 units
College 5-2 +2.8 units
Playoffs 9-6 +6.0 units
Futures 1-0 +3.6 units
Pending:
3* Heat To Win Championship -130
When I made this bet and posted this play before Tuesday's game, part of the strategy was to be able to hedge back in game 7, or take SA plus points and go for a middle. But there's no hedging here. I think Miami wins and covers. San Antonio's collapse was epic. Their free throw shooting was abysmal and Tiago Splitter may have to go the rest of his life knowing if he could have made a free throw his team would have been NBA champions. That's a lot to bounce back from.
There is a strong long term trend to play the home team in NBA game sevens (although some upsets have come the last few years).
San Antonio is overmatched and showing signs of age (Duncan's disappearing act the last 20 minutes of game six; Ginobilli a non-factor) but plays the best team basketball in the NBA and has a major coaching advantage here. Miami is all banged up, Wade's knee is shot (look for major surgery in the off-season), Chris Bosh isn't scoring much. Still, they have the best player in the game and decent play from role players like Cole, Miller, Birdman and Chalmers.
But the big edge I think will be in matchups. san Antonio has been ignoring Ray Allen all series, defying him to launch his three point shots. That worked until it didn't work. I think Popovich will be forced to guard Allen outside tonight, providing a big boost to the inside play of Lebron, Bosh and Wade.
If I didn't have a spectacular bet riding (essentially laying -130 at pick 'em), I'd play Miami minus the points. That's my recommendation. But I'm not piling on, I'm a conservative bettor and will stand pat with the big play I have laying. It would be a great end to an excellent season for me that would have been better if not for poor picks on my 2* and 3* plays.
MY RECOMMENDATION FOR ANYBODY WITHOUT ANY PENDING FUTURE ACTION IS TO TAKE THE HEAT AND LAY THE POINTS. I'LL CALL IT MIAMI BY 11.
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