NBA Game 7 Poll (+ ESPN INSIDER Prediction)

[wayne1218]

Who Do You Like?

[wayne1218]

ESPN INSIDER

LAS VEGAS -- With the Miami Heat forcing a Game 7 against the San Antonio Spurs, Thursday night will be must-see TV on ABC (9 p.m. ET/6 p.m. PT).

The Heat prevailed 103-100 in overtime Tuesday after trailing by 10 at the start of the fourth quarter and were still down 5 with 21 seconds left in regulation. It was the 13th time they had avoided back-to-back losses since their losses on Jan. 8 and 10, but it was the first time in that stretch they had failed to cover the spread, as they closed as a 7-point home favorite.

As most people following the series know, these teams have alternated wins, with the Spurs winning the odd-numbered games and the Heat winning the even (note: The Heat also did this in the Eastern Conference finals against the Indiana Pacers and have alternated wins and losses for 13 straight games -- 12 if you don't count the first game, for the nitpickers out there). But Game 6 was the first time in the NBA Finals that the winning team didn't also cover and the point spread actually came into play. The over also is 4-2, as the first two games stayed under but the past four games have gone over the betting total (the Game 6 result comes with an asterisk, as the consensus over/under was 192 and it was tied 95-95 at the end of regulation).

Let's look at where the betting value lies in Game 7.

The Game 7 line opened Sunday night with most Las Vegas books going with the Heat minus-6.5 (though it was as high as 7 at the MGM properties and as low as 6 at the Wynn and Boyd Gaming books). By the time of this writing Wednesday morning, it looks like 6 is "the number," as the LVH, William Hill and South Point -- which all opened at 6.5 -- are now down to 6. This makes sense, since the Heat were favored by 5 in Game 1 at home (which they didn't cover), 6 in Game 2 (which they did) and then up to 7 in Game 6 (which they won but did not cover) -- so now we're right back to the middle at 6.
I wouldn't expect any major line movement by tipoff Thursday night as there doesn't appear to be any "sharp" or "square" side to this game. You'll hear plenty of both on each side. The Treasure Island did post a Heat minus-5.5 line early Wednesday morning, but I don't see the line heading that way. This looks more like a case where the books that have Heat minus-6 will attract more action on the favorite, while those that stick with Heat minus-6.5 will get more on the underdog Spurs, and we'll see it waver back and forth between the two numbers. Money-line wagering to win the game straight up should also be pretty balanced.

As of Wednesday morning, the consensus money line had the Heat minus-280 with the Spurs plus-240. If you take away the vig from each side, the leaves a line of 260, which equates to the Heat having a 72.2 percent chance to win and the Spurs at 27.8 percent.

Tuley's Take on Game 7

The people who end up backing the Heat are likely to point out that LeBron James and Co. & the better team and it's his/their destiny to get the second of many titles. To justify laying the points, they'll point to the Eastern Conference finals, where the Heat also struggled through a seven-game series but then blew out the Pacers 99-76 when it counted.

Those on the Spurs will make the argument that they've been the better, more balanced team this series and should have closed it out by now. At worst, they're on equal footing with the Heat at three wins apiece, but don't forget that they're actually 4-2 ATS with not only the 2-1 ATS mark at home but 2-1 ATS in Miami.

Now, it won't come as a surprise to regular ESPN Insider readers that I'm siding with the underdog, but I'd also like to point out that I'm not obligated to make a pick at all, and I would exercise that right if I didn't think I was getting enough points. However, I do think this should be a lot closer to pick 'em (which makes the plus-240 on the money line tempting, though I'm thinking I'll personally pass on that like I did in Game 6) as it would hardly be worthy of the word "upset" if the Spurs pull out the victory.

I'll also mention that I prefer going under 190 points. If it wasn't for overtime in Game 6, the under would be 3-0 in the games played in Miami. Besides, championship games tend to be played more conservatively with so much on the line, and the under is usually the way to go (and then we just hope for no overtime!).

The pick: Take the Spurs plus-6 (6.5 if you can get it) with a lean on under 190.

[kbsooner21]

Spurs!!!

[jcindaville]

Spurs!

[jcindaville]

Checking some service plays

So far the services are on the following

Spurs + 6 (11)
Miami - 6 (5)

Over (3)
Under (10)

Services leaning hard to Spurs and under right now

L@ng has lost 7 in a row and is releasing a 200 star pick, of course he had lost 600 the last 7 days. Haha

[Tnbreakers]

Sa

[Jimmy The Greek]

Jc you gonna post langs pick later?

[jcindaville]

Jc you gonna post langs pick later?

It's Spurs + the points

[Jimmy The Greek]

Thank you

[10DimeBry]

Miami by 15 +

stay tuned