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**StarDust Bum** · 06-01-2013, 06:27 PM

NFL Games of the Year: Line tight for Redskins-Cowboys

Odds are out for the biggest and best games of the upcoming NFL season. Covers Expert Bryan Power gives you his insight into some of these marquee matchups and predicts where the odds could move before kickoff.

NFL Week 6: Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-2)

Recent History: Dallas 15-9 SU, 10-14 ATS, Under 14-8-2

Early look at the Redskins: Robert Griffin III was all the rage in 2012, but with his health still in question for 2013, the market isn’t going to be nearly as kind to the Redskins. They came out of nowhere to win the NFC East last year, but they find themselves about even with the Cowboys and behind the Giants, according to this year’s odds. Most books have their win total at eight wins (with some 8.5’s). I don’t foresee a return trip to the playoffs in the Nation’s Capital.

Early look at the Cowboys: The familiar stench of disappointment was emanating from Big D at the end of last season after another Tony Romo Week 17 failure. But because of the talent here, and the star on the helmet, expectations will always be high for the Cowboys. Assuming the Redskins don’t repeat as NFC East Champs, that leaves the Boys or the Giants as the most likely contenders as the Eagles are still a rebuilding project. Most books have Dallas’ win total at 8.5.

Where this line will move: This is a Sunday night game and if Dallas is still less than -3, then expect the action to come in on them. However, the fact that Washington will be coming in off its bye week could limit that action.

**StarDust Bum** · 06-01-2013, 06:28 PM

NFL Games of the Year: Early money on 49ers over Colts

Odds are out for the biggest and best games of the upcoming NFL season. Covers Expert Bryan Power gives you his insight into some of these marquee matchups and predicts where the odds could move before kickoff.

NFL Week 3: Indianapolis Colts at San Francisco 49ers (-9)

Past history: San Francisco 1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 Under (since ’01)

Early look at the Colts: The Colts shocked everyone last season by improving their win total a full nine games in Andrew Luck’s rookie year. Yet, at the same time a minus-30 point differential for an 11-5 football team is eye opening. They beat a lot of bad teams close and had a favorable home schedule. The whole Chuck Pagano situation was a wonderful inspirational story, but it remains to be seen just how good of a head coach he truly is. Bruce Arians is now in Arizona after winning Coach of the Year in Pagano’s absence. Everyone expects this team to take a step back in 2013, which is evident by the Colts’ win total being at 8.5 (with some 8's out there).

Early look at the 49ers: Even with the possible season-ending injury to WR Michael Crabtree, the 49ers will be at the top of the short list of Super Bowl contenders. They are favored to win a tough NFC West and despite coming in at the lowest odds to win the Super Bowl, they are currently drawing the most action. They are projected to finish with 11 or more wins depending on the book.

Where this line will move: This line has already been bet up from the opening number of -7.5, but where it moves from here will depend on how the 49ers perform in their first two games. They open the season by hosting Green Bay, then traveling to Seattle. The Seahawks game, which is on a Sunday night, will have particular impact depending on the result. There’s a good chance the Colts could be 2-0 coming in, as they open at home versus the Raiders and Dolphins. Don’t be surprised to see the action come in on the dog in this one.

**StarDust Bum** · 06-02-2013, 10:52 AM

NFL Games of the Year: Bears-Steelers stuck on key number

Odds are out for the biggest and best games of the upcoming NFL season. Covers Expert Bryan Power gives you his insight into some of these marquee matchups and predicts where the odds could move before kickoff.

NFL Week 3: Chicago Bears at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)

Past History: 1-1 SU, ATS, 2-0 Under (since ’01)

Early look at the Bears: For a second straight season, the Bears collapsed down the stretch. They were the only team to win 10 games and miss the playoffs last season. Many tabbed them as a dark-horse Super Bowl contender at this time last year, but that’s not the case in 2013 as most books have their win total at 8.5, which in a tough NFC would probably have them on the outside looking in.

Early look at the Steelers: The Steelers rarely have back-to-back losing seasons, so after finishing just 8-8 (also fell apart late in the season), the knee-jerk reaction is to call for improvement and a return to the playoffs. Oddsmakers are calling for a three-horse race in the AFC North with the Steelers, Bengals and Super Bowl Champion Ravens having all near identical odds to bag the division title. Pittsburgh is projected at nine wins (some 9.5’s) at most books.

Where this line will move: It’s surprising to see the Steelers only get the token three points for home-field advantage in this one. It’s probably because sharp bettors would jump all over Pittsburgh at -2.5 or Chicago at +3.5. This will be the Bears' road opener after opening against the Bengals and Vikings at home. Pittsburgh should win its opener at home versus Tennessee, but could be off a loss in Week 3 as it travels to Cincinnati the week before. Either way, it would be tough to see this game coming off the key number of three.

**StarDust Bum** · 06-02-2013, 11:05 AM

NFL Top 4: Coaching moves total bettors should know

It was another busy offseason for the NFL coaching carousel. Eight teams found a new head coach, 13 new offense coordinators joined a staff, a dozen defensive coordinators were hired, and numerous other sideline swaps occurred.

With those coaching changes come major shifts in philosophy and game plan for many NFL teams, which means bettors will need to adjust accordingly when sizing up football totals this fall. Here are four coaching changes that could impact your over/under bets:

Chip Kelly, head coach, Philadelphia Eagles (2012: 4-12 SU, 9-7 O/U)

Kelly’s high-octane offense had college kids sucking wind against the Oregon Ducks, but how will this track meet translate to the pros? Many pundits doubt Kelly’s approach, stating that opponents have much more time to prepare for the quick, dink-and-dump attack.

Kelly and his crew say they’re throwing some wrinkles into the playbook and it could resemble the New England Patriots' offense more than what went on in Eugene. Books aren’t taking any chances, posting a lofty 51-point total for the Eagles’ opener at Washington on Monday Night Football.

Monte Kiffin, defensive coordinator, Dallas Cowboys (2012: 8-8 SU, 8-8 O/U)

Some would argue that the wrong coach was fired in Dallas this offseason, pointing the blame at head coach Jason Garrett rather than former DC Rob Ryan. But someone’s head had to roll. Enter 107-year-old Monte Kiffin and his switch from the 3-4 to the 4-3 defense.

Kiffin’s Tampa-2 pedigree will stop the Cowboys from bleeding big plays and pick off a more passes after recording only seven INTs last season. But perhaps the most important thing Kiffin brings to the table is a change in attitude, something Dallas desperately needs. Big D could be big on D when it settles into its new scheme.

Adam Gase, offensive coordinator, Denver Broncos (2012: 13-3, 10-5-1 O/U)

Giving a new offensive coordinator to a QB like Peyton Manning is like giving the UPS guy a Lamborghini. And Gase is putting the pedal to the metal. The Broncos' new OC is turning up the tempo and has Denver running a faster offense in Year 2 under Manning.

The faster attack will pay extra dividends at home in the thin air of Mile High, where opponents already struggle to breathe. The Broncos were one of the better over plays last season and, even though books will pad the numbers, they should continue to top the total, especially as hosts early into the schedule.

Kevin Spencer, special teams, San Diego Chargers (2012: 7-9 SU, 10-6 O/U)

Special teams have long been a thorn in the side of the Chargers. This offseason’s house cleaning brought in former Arizona special teams coach Kevin Spencer, who has two Super Bowl appearances on his special teams resume. He has his work cut out for him in San Diego, where seven punts have been blocked over the past three seasons.

How do special teams impact my over/under bets, you ask? Football is all about field position and solid kick coverage and punt protection can trim those would-be TDs into field goals. The Bolts have been among the top half of the league in defense in recent years, but hemorrhage avoidable points. Spencer will crack the whip and give some value back to the under in San Diego.

**StarDust Bum** · 06-05-2013, 02:40 AM

NFL Games of the Year: Packers slight dogs at Baltimore

NFL Week 6: Green Bay Packers at Baltimore Ravens (-1.5)

Early look at the Packers: Green Bay has won 10 games or more in four consecutive seasons and in five of the last six seasons overall. The Packers' season win total is 10.5 at most sportsbooks, so another double-digit win season is likely. This game is one of two in which the Packers are slated to be underdogs. Green Bay went 1-2 SU and ATS as an underdog last season.

Early look at the Ravens: Baltimore is the defending Super Bowl champion so it will have a target of its back all season. The Ravens broke the bank to sign QB Joe Flacco to a long-term deal, but in doing so they lost a bunch of key contributors. Baltimore will most likely regress from last season.

Where this line will move: Green Bay will be the better team this season and since this game is in Week 6, there’s a good chance the Packers will become the favorite.

**StarDust Bum** · 06-06-2013, 01:36 AM

AFC West Outlook

June 5, 2013

The Hall of Fame Game to open the NFL preseason is just two months away! The NFL draft and injury reports from mini-camps steal the spotlight in the summer, but the April release of 2013 schedule can be a more telling factor in how a team will fare next season. Take a look at the four teams in the AFC West this season. This division appears to be Denver's to lose, but there always seems to be a few surprises in the NFL each season.

Denver Broncos: After starting the 2012 season at 2-3, Denver rattled off 11 consecutive wins to close the regular season, tying Atlanta for the best record in the NFL. The only record that mattered was 0-1 however, as Denver was knocked out of the playoffs at home in a wild overtime game at home against the eventual Super Bowl champion Ravens. Usually first-place teams are dealt a difficult schedule the following year, but Denver has the lowest 2012 win percentage for its 2013 opponents in the entire NFL. That simplified approach to determining strength of schedule has many faults, but Denver certainly resides in a division that presents a great advantage over most of the other contenders in the NFL. San Diego and Kansas City are both going through coaching changes, while the Raiders are still a young team in flux with a second-year head coach. None of those three teams has had a winning record in either of the past two seasons. Denver went 6-0 last season in its division games with an average margin of victory of 17.5 points and the Broncos will likely be heavy favorites in each matchup again, as five of those six games will be in the second half of the season.

Denver again opens with a couple of big games right off the bat, opening the NFL season by hosting Baltimore and then traveling to New York in Week 2, facing the last two Super Bowl champions in the first two weeks of the season. Things soften considerably from there with early season meetings against two more teams in transition, Philadelphia and Jacksonville, with both of those games at home. In drawing the NFC East and the AFC South teams, there is significant travel ahead for the Broncos and two huge games with Indianapolis and New England will both be on the road. The Broncos close the season with four of the final six games of the season on the road, but it seems unlikely that Denver will be stuck in a tight division race barring a serious injury issues. It might make it tough to wrap up a protected top-2 seed if the Broncos should be caught in a tight race as games late in the year on the road might be difficult, even in this division. Overall, Denver fans should be thrilled with this slate, but a lot of things still have to go right to have back-to-back 13-3 seasons.

Denver Broncos 2013 Schedule Numbers:
2013 Opponents Win Percentage in 2012: .430
Games vs. 2012 Playoff Teams: 5 (two home, three away)
Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 9,849
Back-to-Back road game sets: 2
Primetime Games: 5 (two Thursday, Two Sunday night, One Monday)

Kansas City Chiefs: It was a disastrous and tragic season for the Chiefs on and off the field last season, but with veteran coach Andy Reid taking over and still plenty of holdover talent, Kansas City will be a candidate for a significant improvement. After going just 2-14 last season, there is nowhere to go but up and the Chiefs have a schedule that will afford many opportunities to find wins. In only one of the first nine games of the season will the Chiefs face a 2012 playoff team and they will face fellow teams in coaching transitions in two of the first three weeks. Kansas City also has five of the first eight games at home, which could afford an opportunity for a promising start to the season. Kansas City incredibly went 0-12 against the AFC last season and 0-6 within this division and had a bevy of other unflattering numbers including not leading in regulation at any point in the first eight games of last season. The Chiefs also had 37 turnovers last season, a simply astounding number and with the Chiefs losing five games by 10 points or less, it was a big factor that greatly impacted the season.

Adding Alex Smith and improving the offensive line should help in that regard and the schedule will present opportunities especially early in the year. The late-season schedule is much more difficult with two games against Denver in the span of three weeks as well as both games with San Diego late in the year. The Chiefs also must face Washington and Indianapolis in December, so Kansas City will likely need to get its wins early in the year to make a big leap in the standings. Ultimately the results for the Chiefs will depend on improving within the division and being able to get wins against Oakland and San Diego after going 0-4 in those games last season. With a reasonable slate, it is hard not to imaging the Chiefs showing an improved record this season, but a potential promising start could likely fade late in the year.

Kansas City Chiefs 2013 Schedule Numbers:
2013 Opponents Win Percentage in 2012: .473
Games vs. 2012 Playoff Teams: 5 (three home, two away)
Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 8,977
Back-to-Back road game sets: 1
Primetime Games: 1 (one Thursday)

Oakland Raiders: Oakland has significant travel ahead with two trips across the country to New York as well as trips to the Midwest. The Raiders will also face two sets of back-to-back road games with long travel in the span of five weeks. Oakland will only face five games against 2012 playoff teams all season and only three of those games are out of the division. Being the third-place team from this division last season features the disadvantage of playing the Steelers and Jets, perhaps a less favorable duo than second-place San Diego will face and the long travel particularly in the second half of the season could take a toll on this squad.

Oakland opens up with very tough games early in the season with 2012 playoff teams in three of the first four weeks of the season, although with home games with Jacksonville and San Diego as well as a trip to Kansas City in the first six weeks of the season, it would not be a shock to see the Raiders at 3-3 entering an early Week 7 bye week. If the Raiders do not have that kind of a start, it could be another rough season as the schedule is challenging in the middle before closing with five of the final six games of the season against teams that did not make the playoffs last season. The home meeting with Denver in Week 17 could also be an opportunity for a win as the Broncos have a good chance to be locked into a playoff spot and potentially resting players at that point in the season. Oakland won just four games last season, but this was an 8-8 team in both 2010 and 2011 and getting back into that range might be a possibility especially with two teams in this division going through a coaching transition, leaving the Raiders as one of the more stable teams in the group, though that may not last.

Oakland Raiders 2013 Schedule Numbers:
2013 Opponents Win Percentage in 2012: .469
Games vs. 2012 Playoff Teams: 5 (three away, two home)
Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 15,298
Back-to-Back road game sets: 2
Primetime Games: 2 (one Thursday, one Monday)

San Diego Chargers: After several years in a row of seemingly underachieving, the Chargers finally pulled the plug on the Norv Turner era. San Diego will go through a major transition this season, but in this division, the opportunity may be there to avoid a big step back. San Diego was even in point differential last season despite finishing just 7-9 and the Chargers had very good defensive numbers last season. Five of the nine losses came by seven points or less and the Chargers played two close games with division champion Denver despite losing both of those games. The Chargers went just 3-5 at home last season so that is a big area of concern and an easy way to find improvement, through San Diego will have a challenging home slate this season featuring four 2012 playoff teams plus the Cowboys and Giants. That does mean that San Diego will also have a very weak road schedule and the Chargers will get to play six of the first seven road games of the season against teams that had losing records last season before a Thursday night road finale late in the season at Denver.

San Diego does play two sets of back-to-back road games and those games could be made trickier by the first leg being in the east coast in both instances, making for taxing travel. San Diego will open the season Monday night at home against Houston and then face a short week with a long trip to Philadelphia so a slow start would not be a surprise for this team, even if the schedule grades out favorably on paper. San Diego will have the potential to close the year strong with four of the final five games of the season at home although several teams will be thrilled to visit San Diego in December to escape cold conditions at home. San Diego has not been that far from being a playoff caliber team in recent seasons, but the big changes coupled with a schedule that starts out tougher than it finishes could spell more disappointment in Southern California.

San Diego Chargers 2013 Schedule Numbers:
2013 Opponents Win Percentage in 2012: .457
Games vs. 2012 Playoff Teams: 6 (four home, two away)
Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 8,477
Back-to-Back road game sets: 2
Primetime Games: 3 (one Thursday, two Monday)

**StarDust Bum** · 06-06-2013, 01:39 AM

Freeney can't wait to get after Manning

June 5, 2013

SAN DIEGO (AP) - Dwight Freeney has already visualized sacking Peyton Manning.

Freeney and Manning were teammates with the Indianapolis Colts for 10 seasons, but the pass rusher could never hit the quarterback in practice.

Now he can get after Manning all he wants, twice a season.

Freeney, who went through his first practice with the San Diego Chargers on Wednesday, will face Manning and the AFC West rival Broncos on Nov. 10 at San Diego and Dec. 12 at Denver.

``I mean, it will be no different than how it was in practice but then I actually get to make contact,'' Freeney said. ``There's no red jersey, there's no halo, there's no I can't do this, I can't do that. It's just go after him. I've seen him more than anybody probably has seen him.''

Freeney said there was some interest from the Broncos after the Colts decided not to re-sign him, but that the Chargers afforded a better opportunity.

Freeney and Manning were teammates with the Colts from 2002-2011, although Manning missed the entire 2011 season due to a series of neck surgeries.

``Ten years of hearing him in the huddle in practice, going against him in practice every single day, not being able to hit him, is something for me,'' Freeney said. ``As a D-lineman, or rush man or linebacker, one of the things you really take pride in is hitting the QB. You kind of want to hit them all, whether they're on your team or not. For me, it's going to be interesting. It's going to be fun. Hopefully, I'll get some good opportunities this year.''

Freeney agreed to a two-year contract with the Chargers on May 18, literally as he was boarding a jet for a European vacation. The deal could be worth $13.35 million.

The deal to bring Freeney to the Chargers came four days after outside linebacker Melvin Ingram tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee in a padless practice. It also helped cushion the loss of outside linebackers Antwan Barnes and Shaun Phillips to free agency.

Freeney is 33 and entering his 12th season.

He was Indianapolis' career sacks leader with 107 1/2. After recording 13 1/2 sacks in 2009, his totals declined each of the past three years. He had five in 2012.

Freeney, a seven-time Pro Bowler, never seemed comfortable after moving from a 4-3 defensive end, where he spent his first 10 NFL seasons, to a 3-4 outside linebacker. The Chargers run a 3-4 defense.

Freeney said San Diego defensive coordinator John Pagano, the younger brother of Colts coach Chuck Pagano, told him there wasn't anything he did last year that was considered bad.

Freeney said he liked the sound of what John Pagano plans to do with him.

``I think the biggest thing was that, he was going to allow me to do a little bit of what I do,'' said Freeney, who will be used as an edge rusher on the right side. ``It wasn't, `Dwight, here, we're going to take you and put you in this thing and do things that you're not used to doing.' He said, `You know what, we're going to put you in place to make plays, in familiar places, so that you're comfortable and you can just ball out.'''

For Freeney, that means ``just being comfortable getting after the quarterback, getting after the running back, forward penetration. Not a lot of times am I going to be in reverse, you know, backpedaling, going away from the guy with the ball but I'm sure there will be times when I have to do it. Hopefully the blitz will get there. I'm going to have fun with it.''

Freeney was the 11th overall selection in the 2002 draft. During his time with the Colts, he combined with Robert Mathis to form one of the most fearsome pass-rush tandems in the league. His 44 forced fumbles are the most by any NFL player since 2002 and he was one of 13 players in Colts' history to participate in more than 100 victories.

Freeney led the NFL with 16 sacks in 2004.

Freeney said he thinks he has a lot left.

``We'll see what happens, but I feel good and I'm glad to be here.''

Chargers rookie general manager Tom Telesco was with the Colts before being hired by San Diego in January.

Freeney and the Chargers will play host to the Colts in a Monday night game on Oct. 14.

Also Wednesday, the Chargers signed first-round draft pick D.J. Fluker to a four-year contract. The right tackle was the last of San Diego's draft picks to sign.

**StarDust Bum** · 06-06-2013, 01:42 AM

Coaching Hot Seat

June 5, 2013

In a sense, every college football coach is on the hot seat. But there's no question that entering every gridiron campaign, some mentors are in more trouble than others. And, in a handicapping sense, it's always a good idea to know which coaches are sitting on the "hottest" of seats, as history has shown that it has been worthwhile to identify such potential trouble spots as early as possible in anticipation of possible meltdowns and strings of point-spread losses that often result.

Following is an early look at those coaches who look to be in the most danger entering this fall...

Lane Kiffin, Southern Cal...Add this tidbit to the trail of destruction Lake Kiffin has left in his wake throughout his coaching career; some Pac-12 insiders suggest that Kiffin actually had more than a bit to do with the dismissal of Southern Cal basketball coach Kevin O'Neill last January. Not directly, mind you, but the chain of events that led to the ouster of O'Neill in January might have indeed included controversies surrounding Kiffin and the support he had received from now-embattled AD Pat Haden. Many well-heeled Trojan boosters had seen all they needed last season from Kiffin, whose supposed national title-contending squad instead dropped off the national radar in November, allowed a school-worst 62 points vs. Oregon, lost to old and nasty rivals UCLA and Notre Dame, watched QB Matt Barkley's potential Heisman Trophy campaign go up in smoke, and ended up humiliating itself at the Sun Bowl when losing to a .500 Georgia Tech side to finish a dubious 7-6. Along the way were more curious incidents involving Kiffin and rumors of internal discord that surfaced after the bowl loss, part of an embarrassing adventure to El Paso. More than a few Trojan cigars were demanding action be taken by Haden, whose public pronouncement of "150%" support for Kiffin in early November was coming back to bite him hard. Enough so, according to various sources, that Haden was likely motivated to hit the eject button early at midseason on O'Neill, who was widely expected to get his pink slip anyway once the hoop season concludes. By jettisoning O'Neill just as the criticism of Kiffin was reaching its loudest, however, Haden at least temporarily quieted his growing legion of critics who suspected he didn't have the nerve to make a bold move befitting a top-flight AD. Whatever reprieve given Haden (and Kiffin) is expected to be short-lived, however; Haden will not be able to throw his new basketball coach Andy Enfield under a similar bus to deflect criticism any criticism directed at Kiffin this fall. Now Barkley is gone and a new QB must be groomed (heir apparent Max Wittek didn't get any pulses racing when subbing for a hurt Barkley last year) and the Trojans must quickly rediscover the swagger they lost a year ago. True, Kiffin has been operating with scholarship reductions dating to the Reggie Bush-related penalties from 2010, and a more-forgiving Pac-12 schedule (no Oregon or Washington this season) might help this fall, but the program needs to rebound quickly from last year's fiasco and for Kiffin to at least stay away from more unwanted controversies for Haden to justify staying the current course.

Bobby Hauck, UNLV...Talk about a predicament! You've compiled a 6-32 record in your first three seasons on the job, and your team has yet to win a road game during that span of time. The AD who hired you, maybe the only person in your corner in the entire city of Las Vegas, issues a must-win edict (at least a 6-6 record and a bowl bid) for your upcoming fourth season. Then, just after spring practice, that AD resigns under pressure, partly due to a reported dust-up with the school president who demanded an immediate upgrade in the football program and a dismissal of the coach if things didn't turn around by the third game of the season. According to some well-placed Mountain West sources, none of the above is fiction at UNLV, with the characters involved being HC Bobby Hauck, former AD Jim Livengood, and school prexy Neil Smatresk. While no one in the region doubts the magnitude of the rebuilding job Hauck inherited from predecessor Mike Sanford in 2010, and the signs of some palpable progress being made throughout the 2012 campaign, the Rebels collapsed once more at the end of last season, with humiliating road losses at Colorado State and Hawaii capping Hauck's third straight 2-win effort. Another slow start from UNLV could put Hauck in lame-duck status or a candidate for dismissal before Columbus Day, in which case the Rebel season could go up in a mushroom cloud as the remaining staff sends out feelers for future employment and the players themselves wonder about scholarship renewals with a new regime on the way. For Hauck to survive, the defense must plug its many leaks, promising soph QB Nick Sherry and sr. RB Tim Cornett cannot succumb to injury, and every break that has gone against UNLV the past quarter-century must turn around in a hurry. Given the specifics of this dire situation, Hauck appears the coach most likely to not make it to end of the regular season.

Mack Brown, Texas...A 22-16 record over the past three seasons and a growing collection of lopsided losses to eternal rival Oklahoma (the last of those by a 63-21 wipeout margin last October) are usually not the stuff of stability for a Longhorns football coach. So it's no wonder that a growing legion of Texas-exes are starting to believe that Brown is past his sell-by date, especially since the crowning glory of his 16-season tenure in Austin (the Vince Young-led 2005 national title) is looking a lot further back in the rear-view mirror these days. In Brown's defense, the Horns did show some signs of recovery last season, improving to 9-4, but this is Texas, where standards are awfully high and where sorts such as Fred Akers, David McWilliams, and John Mackovic have been dismissed for less. Making matters more complicated for Brown is that an annual haul of top-rated recruits has not delivered as expected. Some of the recent slump since the 2009 season BCS title game vs. Alabama can be blamed on QB problems post-Colt McCoy, though jr. David Ash performed with some flair last season and appears poised for a potential breakout this fall. If he doesn't, however, the pressure ratches up exponentially on Brown. But as most Big 12 insiders are quick to remind us, Mack will have a built-in safety blanket at Austin as long as AD DeLoss Dodds stays on the job. At 73, however, Dodds would seem to be looking at retirement sooner rather than later. Their relationship likely keeps Brown safe as long as the Horns stay above .500 and continue to qualify for bowls, but a popular belief among many in the region is that whenever Dodds rides off into the sunset, Brown rides with him.

Gary Pinkel, Missouri...Pinkel's career mark with the Tigers is nothing to sneeze at, as he's 12 wins from being the all-time school leader in coaching victories. But many in Columbia are wondering if Pinkel is going to stick around long enough at Faurot Field to set the mark. That's because Mizzou's move to the SEC started off more than a bit bumpy last season, made to look even worse by comparison to Texas A&M, which also made the switch (with a new head coach and frosh Heisman winner) from the Big 12 but flourished in its new and supposedly more-treacherous environs. Another round of beatings this fall might convince Tiger backers that Pinkel is not the guy to lead Mizzou on this new and difficult SEC adventure. A forgiving non-conference slate gives Pinkel a chance to gain some momentum this fall before SEC actions swings into gear, but keeping QB James Franklin in one piece and improvements on defense will be necessary for the Tigers to get back into the postseason mix. This season looks like a referendum on Pinkel, and anything less than a bowl invitation likely puts his 13-season tenure in jeopardy.

Kirk Ferentz, Iowa...Ferentz is signed thru 2020 in Iowa City, but the natives are nonetheless getting increasingly restless as the Hawkeyes have slipped to a 19-19 mark over the past three seasons and just 10-14 vs. mostly-modest Big Ten opposition during that span. Off-field issues and missing a bowl game last year have added to the angst among Iowa backers. Which has contributed to an growing belief among many Hawkeyes supporters that the program has already hit its apex for Ferentz, who was been able to keep his Iowa teams at least in Big Ten contention and in the bowl mix for most of his tenure. Not last year, however, with offensive problems looking acute in a 4-8 debacle, prompting Ferentz to answer critics by making several adjustments on his coaching staff. Ferentz, who in past years has often been the subject of interest from elsewhere (including the NFL) but has always remained loyal to Iowa, has not yet endured consecutive sub-.500 seasons with the Hawkeyes. But that could change, and soon. Expect the heat to turn up significantly if Iowa doesn't go "bowling" again this fall.

Mike Leach, Washington State...After Leach became the highest-paid employee in the history of the school last fall, Wazzu backers had reason to expect more than a 3-9 record that marked a regression from the end of the troubled Paul Wulff regime that preceded Leach's hire. Making matters more complicated for Leach were a series of negative storylines and accusations (many of those unproven ones from deposed WR Marquess Wilson) that offered unneeded distractions from the actions on the field. Which on their own were bad enough, with little resemblance to the Leach "Air Raids" that terrorized foes in his previous high-profile (and controversial) tenure at Texas Tech...or, for that matter, the last year of the Wulff regime in 2011. Along the way, Leach's besieged QBs endured a nation's-worst 57 sacks, the running game gained inches per carry, and the defense wasn't much good, either. With everything having gone so unexpectedly pear-shaped in the Palouse, some Pac-12 sources wondered if Leach might get the quick hook if the Cougs didn't rally for a dramatic Apple Cup win over rival U-Dub in the regular-season finale. The off-field distractions were responsible for much of that conjecture last season, and Leach must avoid similar controversies this fall. Although Leach's defense lacked playmakers last season, it was a surprise to see the offense stumble so badly. A repeat of 2012 would seem unlikely, especially if jr. QB Conner Halliday can stay healthy, but anything resembling last year's mess could put Leach in the soup.

Frank Beamer, Virginia Tech...Believe it or not, Beamer's name has been on this list before, and near the top of it, in fact, back in 1993. That was Beamer's seventh season on the job, and at the time, the Hokies had yet to qualify for a bowl game on his watch. But '93 was a breakthrough campaign, as QB Maurice DeShazo led VPI to the postseason and a rousing Independence Bowl win over Indiana, and the Hokies had taken flight, with a bowl streak that remains intact today. Although it took a narrow season-ending win over disappointing Virginia to keep the streak alive a year ago in a terribly-disappointing campaign at Blacksburg, causing many Hokie backers to wonder if the old coach and alum might be past his sell-by date, especially with few hints of the old "Beamer Ball" (defensive and special teams opportunism) anywhere to be seen last fall. Now, the pressure will be on those old Beamer staples, as well as much-hyped QB Logan Thomas, to deliver this fall. At the least, expect some public discussion about the future of d.c. Bud Foster, long considered Beamer's heir apparent but as of yet not aligned with any official successor plan at VPI. If the Hokies continue to flounder as they did a year ago, the eventual transition to Foster might become more problematic, too, and Bud might be more tempted than usual to seek employment elsewhere (he's been rumored for several jobs in recent years, including North Carolina's opening after 2011). Some in the region suspect that Beamer might want to stay through what would be his 30th season in 2016; if that is indeed the case, don't be surprised if VPI at least announces some successor plan with Foster.

Mike London, Virginia...After what seemed a breakthrough campaign in 2011 and a Chick-Fil-A Bowl berth vs. Auburn, UVa took several steps backward last fall when slumping to an ugly 4-8 mark. The pressure thus mounts on London, now in his fourth year, to stop the bleeding ASAP. His answer is a return to his preferred power-football style which will require a lot more from his infantry than its 129 ypg (and 96th ranking nationally) from a year ago. To that end, London has revamped his coaching staff, especially on the offensive end where several former FBS head coaches (including ex-NC State HC Tom O'Brien and ex-Colorado State HC Steve Fairchild) are now on staff. Unfortunately, both of last year's QBs have left the program; Michael Rocco transferred to Richmond and former Alabama transfer QB Phillip Sims, in contention for the starting job in spring, subsequently became academically ineligible, likely leaving the job to soph David Watford. There is some encouragement, however, as another respected assistant, Jon Tenuta, takes over a defense that on paper looks to be menacing, especially with seven starters (including the entire secondary) in the fold. But ACC sources almost all suggest that another bowl miss puts London in the crosshairs.

Charlie Weis, Kansas...Kansas is getting what it deserves with Weis, whose Notre Dame tenure ended in shambles, as did his brief stint as o.c. with the NFL Kansas City Chiefs and even more-desultory one-year run as o.c. at Florida, where HC Will Muschamp was relieved that Weis was able to escape Gainesville and become the Jayhawks' problem instead. After showing little patience for predecessor Turner Gill, the Weis hire was the brainchild of new AD Sheahon Zenger, who was rewarded with a 1-11 record (only win vs. FCS South Dakota State) in Weis' debut season that had many wondering why the plug had to be pulled so quickly on predecessor Gill. Now, Weis is banking hopes for a resurgence on BYU transfer QB Jake Heaps, who started some games for the Cougs as a frosh in 2011 before getting beaten out for the job by journeyman Riley nelson, and deciding to transfer thereafter. A bevy of juco transfers has also been enlisted for a hopeful quick fix, but this was not supposed to be the plan in Lawrence. Moreover, Weis' reputation as an offensive genius has taken quite a battering since his long-ago days as Bill Belichick's o.c. with the Super Bowl Patriots a decade ago, and the "D" didn't exactly respond to ex-Dallas Cowboys HC and d.c. Dave Campo in 2012, ranking 113th nationally. The memory of BCS-level teams in the not-so-long-ago Mark Mangino regime look a lot further back in the rear-view mirror these days. Can Weis survive another winless Big 12 season? And can AD Zenger survive another debacle with his hand-picked coach?

Tim Beckman, Illinois...The honeymoon period for new head coaches is not as long as it used to be; the aforementioned Turner Gill only got two years in Kansas, and he's not the only one who has been given a lot less rope by win-hungry fans and ADs in recent years. The next such example could be Beckman, who arrived in Champaign-Urbana amid much fanfare last season after a successful run at Toledo, but immediately had Illini fans wishing for a return to the Ron Zook years after an ugly 2-10 collapse that featured a complete meltdown on the offensive end and a winless mark in the Big Ten. Now, there are more than a few Illinois backers who wonder if Beckman is up to the job. The hope this season is that new o.c. and former Western Michigan HC Bill Cubit can straighten out the attack that floundered badly with co-coordinators Chris Beatty and Billy Gonzalez last season (both are no longer with the program). For Cubit to succeed he'll have to coax something more than inconsistency from forth-year starting QB Nathan Scheelhaase (learning his third different offensive system in four season), and the defense is also in rebuild mode after finishing a poor 93rd in scoring (32.1 ppg). Mostly, however, improvements need to happen fast with a desultory strike (out) force that ranked an awful 119th in scoring and total offense in 2012. Otherwise, more Illini backers will begin to suspect that Beckman isn't up to the job. After all, even Zook was able to get the Illini into minor-bowl territory during the later years of his tenure.

Randy Edsall, Maryland...The Terps have had egg on their face ever since the ham-handed handling of Ralph Friedgen's dismissal (engineered by new AD Kevin Anderson) following a successful 2010 campaign. Hired away from an impressive run at UConn that featured a Big East title and BCS berth (Fiesta) in 2010, Randy Edsall's College Park adventure has resulted in a 6-18 nightmare the past two seasons. Although the specifics of each campaign differed (mass defections gutting the 2011 team, eventual firing of both coordinators, and injuries that decimated the QB position wrecking 2012), no Terp backers are happy, and Edsall has to begin showing some progress this season as Maryland prepares for a move to the Big Ten in 2014. Keeping QB C.J. Brown healthy, and the ongoing improvement of homerun soph WR Stefon Diggs, would go a long way to solving many of the recent offensive woes, and the "D" performed with some flair for d.c. Brian Stewart (ex-Dallas Cowboys) last season. Still, a winning record and bowl berth are minimum expectations this season.

Others on the hot seat: Paul Pasqualoni, UConn; Jeff Quinn, Buffalo, Don Treadwell, Miami-Ohio; Ron English, Eastern Michigan; Doc Holliday, Marshall.; Kevin Wilson, Indiana.

**StarDust Bum** · 06-14-2013, 01:37 AM

NFC West Outlook

June 13, 2013

The Hall of Fame Game to open the NFL preseason is just around the corner, less than two months away. The NFL draft, free agency, and injury reports from mini-camps steal the spotlight in the summer but the April release of 2013 schedule can be a more telling factor in how a team will fare next season. Take a look at the four teams in the NFC West this season, a division that made a lot of noise in the NFC last season with the 49ers and Seahawks both among the final four in the conference.

Arizona Cardinals: The Cardinals were 4-0 to start the 2012 season including wins over Seattle and New England. Arizona won just once the rest of the way, finishing 5-11 and featuring the second worst point production in the NFL. The collapse led to a coaching change with Bruce Arians taking over for Ken Whisenhunt despite Whisenhunt taking the Cardinals to their first ever Super Bowl just a few years prior. The quarterback situation has been a huge problem for the Cardinals in recent years and veteran Carson Palmer was acquired to address that need but there are still many question marks for this team.

Arizona will be the clear 4th place team in this division in most predictions with a lot of stability with the three other franchises. Arizona will face daunting travel this season with a 750 mile trip to San Francisco as the shortest journey of the season and the Cardinals will play four games in the Eastern Time zone including two of those games on the second of back-to-back road game sets. Drawing Philadelphia and Detroit with the 4th place schedule does not appear to be a great advantage for Arizona and with all four NFC South teams on the slate it will not be easy to improve on a 3-9 NFC mark from last season given how tough this division will be. The Cardinals along with the rest of the NFC West will face the four AFC South teams and even though that includes two 2012 playoff teams that is a relatively favorable draw and will present games with Jacksonville and Tennessee, though the Cardinals have the misfortune of both of those games being on the road. Arizona was just 1-7 on the road last season and this year the road schedule will provide the easier opportunities for wins as none of the five out of division road games will come against a team that had a winning record last season.

That means a challenging home slate however with Carolina, Atlanta, Indianapolis, and Houston visiting Glendale. Arizona will open with three of the first four games of the season on the road and even through none of the first five opponents made the playoffs last season it will be a tough way to start the season for a team in transition. There are some positive pieces left behind on this roster but overall it does not appear that a quick turnaround season will be possible for the Cardinals through this schedule unless this team is ready for day 1 and can take advantage of a somewhat softer September slate on the road.

Arizona Cardinals 2013 Schedule Numbers:
2013 Opponents Win Percentage in 2012: .520
Games vs. 2012 Playoff Teams: 7 (five home, two away)
Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 13,691
Back-to-Back road game sets: 2
Primetime Games: 1 (one Thursday)

San Francisco 49ers: The 49ers made it to the Super Bowl last season and this team should be one of the favorites in the NFC in 2013. The 49ers will face an unbelievable amount of travel miles but they do face only seven true road games with a game in London. San Francisco will also play the key division road games with Seattle and St. Louis early in the year, getting the home games in the second time around which is generally considered more favorable. There are tough games ahead with both Green Bay and Washington as part of the 1st place schedule along with all four NFC South teams on the slate but the Falcons and Packers both have to travel to San Francisco. Five of the seven games against 2012 playoff teams will be at home so while there are some very tough games ahead for this team, most of the toughest games are at home.

The schedule will open with a bang however with four of the first five opponents being playoff teams from last year and the one foe that was not is a short week Thursday night road game against St. Louis, a team that handled the 49ers well last season. San Francisco could definitely face a rough start to the season including games with Green Bay and Seattle in the first two weeks and with a still young quarterback that has never opened the season as a starter, there could be some early trouble. San Francisco does have a softer slate in the middle of the season but there are three games in the Eastern Time zone and the final three home games of the season will be challenging with division games with St. Louis and Seattle and then a big NFC Championship rematch with Atlanta in the second to last game of the regular season.

Overall the road schedule is favorable in terms of the caliber of opponents and even though the travel to London is substantial, the 49ers will face a Jacksonville team that they will be heavily favored over. It will not be shocking to see the 49ers take a few early losses but this is a team that could provide value in the middle of the season and still deserves to be considered among the elite teams in the league, though matching the records of the past two seasons is not a given and this will not be an easy division to win.

San Francisco 49ers 2013 Schedule Numbers:
2013 Opponents Win Percentage in 2012: .520
Games vs. 2012 Playoff Teams: 7 (five home, two away)
Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 19,428 (includes 5,354 miles for a game in London)
Back-to-Back road game sets: 2 (includes a neutral site game in London)
Primetime Games: 5 (one Thursday, two Sunday night, two Monday)

Seattle Seahawks: Seattle ended up as one of the top statistical teams in the NFL last season and the Seahawks were very close to making it to the NFC Championship game led by rookie quarterback Russell Wilson. The race in this division is expected to come down to Seattle and San Francisco and while the Seahawks snag a schedule with a slightly lower 2012 win percentage than San Francisco, it is likely a tougher overall slate. Seattle will play a very difficult set of road games and historically the Seahawks are not the same team on the road, including going just 3-5 last season while a perfect 8-0 at home. Seattle faces four 2012 playoff teams on the road but also draws tough road games against the Panthers, Rams, and Giants and the toughest games from the NFC South and AFC South draws will be on the road. Seattle also has to play three separate sets of back-to-back road games which can be especially daunting considering there are no short trips from Seattle. In each of those three instances the second of the two games is the longer trip and could be a spot to fade the Seahawks.

Seattle opens the home schedule with its biggest game, hosting the 49ers and the home slate from there on is pretty favorable with Minnesota as the only winning team from 2012 faced in the final seven home games of the season. Another perfect record at home is very possible for this squad but even matching the 3-5 mark on the road from last season would be a solid accomplishment. Seattle certainly has the potential to meet last year’s 11-5 mark and considering this team was +167 in point differential last year the sky is the limit. The road slate is challenging however and if San Francisco can withstand its first month gauntlet the 49ers may be in a better position to take the division title again, forcing Seattle to another road-heavy path in the playoffs should they get there.

Seattle Seahawks 2013 Schedule Numbers:
2013 Opponents Win Percentage in 2012: .516
Games vs. 2012 Playoff Teams: 6 (two home, four away)
Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 17,548
Back-to-Back road game sets: 3
Primetime Games: 4 (one Thursday, one Sunday night, two Monday)

St. Louis Rams: While the Rams face long travel for all three division venues their central location does provide an edge in this division, facing far less travel overall than the other three foes. St. Louis was a bit of a surprise team last season with a 7-8-1 mark following up a league-worst 2-14 mark in 2011. One thing most forget that in this division that produced two of the final four teams left standing in the NFC, the Rams featured the best division record going 4-1-1, getting wins against both Seattle and San Francisco at home. The Rams were much less impressive statistically and incredibly this team won four times without scoring 20 points last season as the defense was sharp at times but overall not consistent.

St. Louis is a team that some will view as a possible breakthrough team in 2013 but the schedule is not overly favorable, particularly with a very tough road slate. Five of eight road games are against 2012 playoff teams and games at Dallas and at Carolina are not exactly cupcakes. Drawing Dallas and Chicago in the 3rd place draw illustrates how tough and deep the NFC is right now and the Rams have not displayed an overly tough home field edge, going just 4-4 last year. The big home game with San Francisco will come on a short week after two marquee road games and the home game with Seattle also comes after back-to-back road games which will make it tough to deliver a division sweep at home again this season. The Rams play three sets of back-to-back road games this season which will be a great challenge and they also play the top two AFC South teams Houston and Indianapolis on the road.

St. Louis does have a few favorable early season home games with Arizona, Jacksonville, and Tennessee visiting but overall this is a very tough schedule that is tied for the second toughest in the NFL according to 2012 win percentage. The Rams look like a competitive team that is capable of a few upsets but it will not be easy to take another step forward this season and finishing around .500 is likely the destination for the Rams. The early season schedule with four brutal road games and home contests with the 49ers and Seahawks in the first eight weeks may make a slow start likely and a step back season certainly a possibility if there are any unforeseen setbacks with injuries.

St. Louis Rams 2013 Schedule Numbers:
2013 Opponents Win Percentage in 2012: .539
Games vs. 2012 Playoff Teams: 7 (two home, five away)
Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 8,698
Back-to-Back road game sets: 3
Primetime Games: 2 (one Thursday, one Monday)

**StarDust Bum** · 06-14-2013, 01:41 AM

AFC South Outlook

May 18, 2013

The NFL draft is still the focus this time of the year but the recently released 2013 schedule can be a more telling factor in how a team will fare next season. Take a look at the four teams in the AFC South this season. This division will likely be considered the weakest in the NFL by many but with fairly favorable schedules all around the records may not reflect that. These teams will all face a lot of travel miles which could take a toll on the results as Houston looks for a third straight division title.

Houston Texans: Based on win percentage from last season the Texans have the sixth weakest schedule in the NFL and the second weakest of any division champion from 2012. Houston faces long travel with every road game being at least 795 miles away but that is a problem for Houston every year given how far spread out this division is. Houston will play all three division road games in the final four weeks of the season and the final two home games are hosting New England and Denver for a very tough finish to the season. Houston will also have a tough start to the season with a brutal early set of games with Baltimore, Seattle, and San Francisco consecutively starting in week 3. Houston will play seven games against teams that won at least 10 games last season as the overall strength of schedule is brought down with two games against Jacksonville, a team that went 2-14 last season.

Houston also draws all four AFC West teams along with the rest of the division. Houston will play two games in the Pacific Time zone and four games in the Eastern Time zone so there are some challenges with this slate and the travel. While there are several games where the Texans will play as heavy favorites it will likely be a more difficult slate than the team faced last season even with the division as a whole looking like one of the lighter groups in the league. Houston still should be considered the favorite in this division and they have a schedule that is very similar to what Indianapolis faces but the difference between those two teams last season was much greater than the one-game difference in the standings indicated. Houston was 115 points superior in point-differential compared with the Colts last season and the Texans were 6-2 in road games, a record they could certainly repeat with this year's road slate, even with some tough games early in the year.

Houston Texans 2013 Schedule Numbers:
2013 Opponents Win Percentage in 2012: .473
Games vs. 2012 Playoff Teams: 7 (four home, three away)
Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 9,654
Back-to-Back road game sets: 1
Primetime Games: 4 (one Thursday, Two Sunday night, One Monday)

Indianapolis Colts: After the Colts went 11-5 last season for a great turnaround behind rookie quarterback Andrew Luck, there will be many projecting a division championship this season. By 2012 winning percentage the Colts have the third weakest schedule in the NFL and there are only six games against 2012 playoff teams. There is some significant travel on this slate however with three road trips to the western part of the country in addition to long trips to Jacksonville and Houston. The AFC South plays the AFC West teams which is certainly an advantage and the Colts draw Denver at home in what will obviously be a game that captures the nation's attention with Peyton Manning returning. The second place schedule brings tougher than they might sound games with Miami and Cincinnati however, compared with the fourth place slate the Colts dealt with last season in the turnaround.

The coaching staff also loses Bruce Arians who led Indianapolis for most of last season while Chuck Pagano battled leukemia. That storyline certainly helped to bring the team together last season and not having that focus could be a possibility this year. Indianapolis was 11-5 despite being -30 in point differential last season as this was a team that won nine games by seven points or less and this was not a particularly impressive statistical team. Luck was asked to do a lot last season and while he delivered in some big 4th quarter moments his overall numbers were not efficient and he could face a sophomore slump with the league having a whole off-season to break down his film. This division draws the very tough set of NFC West teams and the Colts will have a tough time going 7-1 at home again having to host teams like Seattle and Denver just in the first half of the season. The Colts are a good candidate to start strong however with home games the first two weeks and losing teams from 2012 in three of the first four games. The schedule in the middle of the season looks daunting and a slight step backward is likely in 2013 as this team was fortunate to win 11 games last year.

Indianapolis Colts 2013 Schedule Numbers:
2013 Opponents Win Percentage in 2012: .461
Games vs. 2012 Playoff Teams: 6 (three home, three away)
Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 8,977
Back-to-Back road game sets: 2
Primetime Games: 4 (one Thursday, two Sunday night, one Monday)

Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jaguars will certainly be spending some time in the air this season with several incredibly long trips adding to the challenges for a team with a new coaching staff, an unsettled quarterback situation, and coming off an ugly 2-14 season. Jacksonville opens the season with four of the first six games on the road with three of those six games in the western part of the country and all four games as a part of two back-to-back road trips. Jacksonville has winnable games in the first two weeks with Kansas City and then a trip to Oakland but it will be a great challenge in the next six games leading up to a week 9 bye. Jacksonville gives up a home game to play in London where they will face the 49ers and the only break in that scheduling is that San Francisco must make significantly further travel.

There are some opportunities in the second half of the schedule, playing Tennessee twice, as well as games with Arizona, Cleveland, and Buffalo. Even with the loss of the home game and the long travel this is a schedule that a contending team would envy with nine games against teams that had a losing record last season. Three of the final four games of the season are also at home and while the Jaguars are not expected to be in the playoff mix this is a team that could finish with some positive momentum. If the Jaguars fail to win in the first two weeks however things could get very ugly for this squad and by midseason placing a call to the Tim Tebow camp to sell some tickets might be a reasonable idea. It would not be a surprise if the Jaguars improve by several games this season however as there are a lot of games where Jacksonville should feel like they can win even for a team in transition.

Jacksonville Jaguars 2013 Schedule Numbers:
2013 Opponents Win Percentage in 2012: .508
Games vs. 2012 Playoff Teams: 7 (two home, four away, one neutral)
Miles Traveled for 9 road/neutral games: 15,748 (includes 3,996 miles to London)
Back-to-Back road game sets: 3
Primetime Games: 1 (one Thursday)

Tennessee Titans: The Titans started out last season 1-4 to finish up 6-10 overall with no wins over teams that made the playoffs. This will be a critical third year for head coach Mike Munchak as well as quarterback Jake Locker as this team needs a rebound season. This is a division where a quick turnaround is possible as the Colts proved last year and Tennessee may be a candidate to take a positive step this season. The Titans do have a tough start to the season with back-to-back road games in Pittsburgh and Houston to open the year but then there are three straight home games against losing teams from 2012. Long trips to Seattle, Oakland, and Denver will be on this slate and the Titans have to play three straight road games late in the year with two of those games out west.

The Titans have five home games against losing teams from 2012 and getting to play four games against teams that made a coaching change could also provide opportunities. Having to play the Steelers and the Jets as part of the third place draw is less favorable than most years but overall this is a slate where the Titans can have some success. Improving in the division will likely make of break the team however after Tennessee went 1-5 in division games last season. The Titans will likely need to find a way to at least split with the Texans and Colts to have a shot at making a move upward this season. The early stretch of home games will be critical for the Titans as they host the Chargers, Jets, and Chiefs in succession starting in week 3. They need to win those games to offset very tough games in the rest of the first half schedule to make sure that the season does not turn into a disastrous one.

Tennessee Titans 2013 Schedule Numbers:
2013 Opponents Win Percentage in 2012: .488
Games vs. 2012 Playoff Teams: 7 (three home, four away)
Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 8,477
Back-to-Back road game sets: 3 (including a back-to-back-to-back set)
Primetime Games: 1 (one Thursday)

**StarDust Bum** · 06-14-2013, 01:42 AM

NFC North Outlook

April 27, 2013

The NFL draft gets all the attention this week, but the recent release of the 2013 schedule can be a more telling factor in how a team will fare next season. Take a look at the four teams in the NFC North in this schedule preview. The Minnesota Vikings made a big splash in the first round of the draft, but a daunting travel schedule is ahead for Minnesota this season. The Bears may have the most favorable schedule in the group, but a team in transition may not be able to take advantage. The schedule should point to a rise for the Lions and perhaps a small drop for the Packers in the NFC North, but time will tell if there will be enough of an impact to shake up the standings.

Chicago Bears: The Bears were 10-6 last season, but with another late-season collapse a bold coaching change was made. 57-year old CFL veteran Marc Trestman was certainly not a hire that many fell in love with and while he will inherit a team that can compete right away, there also will be elevated expectations for a first-year coach and a first-time NFL head coach, especially one that has been away from the NFL for almost a decade. Few 10-win teams get a 3rd-place schedule the following year, so the opportunity for the Bears to have early success is there. The 3rd-place games bring the Saints and the Rams and those are games Chicago will probably need to take if the playoffs are to be a reality as the NFC North draws the NFC East and AFC North teams for a rather difficult overall slate ahead.

Chicago will play four of the first six games at home, which could be very helpful for a team in transition. They will host 2012 playoff teams in the first two weeks, but Cincinnati and Minnesota are not as fearsome as some of the other playoff caliber teams in the league. The Bears are saddled with three separate sets of back-to-back road games this season, but compared with the rest of the division, Chicago has a favorable slate of road games with only one game outside of the division against a team that made the playoffs last season. Chicago also gets to play its Monday night game with Green Bay coming off a bye week and with a favorable late-season slate, another collapse is not likely this season. Chicago closes the season hosting Green Bay, but has Dallas, Cleveland, and Philadelphia in the three weeks prior to the finale. Chicago will not play a single game outside of the Eastern and Central time zones as the travel miles are among the lowest in the league. Overall, the Bears have the most favorable schedule in the NFC North and while repeating a double-digit win season in a coaching transition is a difficult task, Chicago has a good shot to move back into a playoff position this year if they can get off to another strong start.

Chicago Bears 2013 Schedule Numbers:
2013 Opponents Win Percentage in 2012: .502
Games vs. 2012 Playoff Teams: 7 (four home, three away)
Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 3,476
Back-to-Back road game sets: 3
Primetime Games: 3 (one Thursday, two Mondays)

Detroit Lions: With three 10-win teams from 2012 in the NFC North, the Lions are facing one of the toughest schedules in the league based strictly on last year’s results. After breaking into the playoffs in 2011, the Lions suffered a huge decline last season with a 4-12 record including losing each of the final eight games of the season. Despite being 4-12, the Lions were only outscored by an average of just four points per game and this is a talented team that could be a strong candidate for a rebound season. Given the climate in the locker room and the general sense of immaturity on the roster and starting with head coach Jim Schwartz, a scenario on the other end of the spectrum is certainly a possibility as well. Detroit failed to win a single game within the division last season, so that will be an obvious area where the Lions need to improve. Ford Field also saw the Lions go just 2-6 in home games despite an offense that was very productive, scoring over 23 points per game on average.

By finishing fourth in the division last year, the Lions are the only NFC North team that has Arizona and Tampa Bay on its schedule and that is certainly an advantage given the overall depth of the NFC and the teams that the rest of the division has to face in those match-ups. Detroit does have three sets of consecutive road games on the schedule this year and the Lions could know early how the season will turn out having to play four of the first six games of the season on the road. The late-season schedule is challenging with the Ravens, Giants, and Vikings in the final three weeks, but the Lions do get a bye week before their road meeting with the Bears and the three division home games come in relatively favorable spots on the schedule. Both of the big primetime games for the Lions will also be at home. The Lions certainly look like a team that should improve on last season’s ugly record, but whether they will improve enough to buy this coaching staff another season remains questionable in a very tough division.

Detroit Lions 2013 Schedule Numbers:
2013 Opponents Win Percentage in 2012: .539
Games vs. 2012 Playoff Teams: 7 (four home, three away)
Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 5,125
Back-to-Back road game sets: 3
Primetime Games: 2 (one Thanksgiving, one Monday)

Minnesota Vikings: The Vikings bolstered their roster with three first round picks and coming off a surprising 10-6 season and a trip to the playoffs, Minnesota might look like a team on the rise. The Vikings will be dealt one of the tougher schedules in the NFL, as they will play just seven home games by virtue of facing Pittsburgh in London. The road schedule is truly difficult as after the opening game at Detroit, Minnesota’s remaining seven road games will all be against teams that finished 8-8 or better last season. In the AFC North, draw the Vikings have road games against Baltimore and Cincinnati, the top two teams from that division last season and they will also have to play at Seattle in the second place NFC draw. There are winnable home games outside of the division with Cleveland, Carolina, and Philadelphia all visiting the Metrodome, but an early Week 5 bye could add to a challenging second half of the season schedule. Minnesota also plays its two biggest division road games, at Chicago, and at Green Bay in the second of back-to-back road games this season.

The Vikings open up with back-to-back road games in the division at Detroit and at Chicago and in late November, they have a brutal set of road games at Seattle and at Green Bay in back-to-back weeks. The home meeting with Green Bay will be a big Sunday night game for the Vikings, but it comes on the heels of a Monday night game in New York, giving the Vikings long travel and a short week for one of the biggest games of the season, while the Packers get to host the Browns leading up to that game. Minnesota went 4-2 in the NFC North last season and it will likely take a similar mark for Minnesota to flirt with the postseason again. With Chicago in a coaching transition and Detroit coming off a dreadful season, it is possible for Minnesota to maintain its place but the Vikings were a team that snuck out several narrow wins last season to sneak into the playoffs and a step-back season is probably a more likely scenario with this slate.

Minnesota Vikings 2013 Schedule Numbers:
2013 Opponents Win Percentage in 2012: .516
Games vs. 2012 Playoff Teams: 6 (two home, four away)
Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 11,365 (includes 4,280 to London)
Back-to-Back road game sets: 2
Primetime Games: 3 (one Thursday, one Sunday night, one Monday)

Green Bay Packers: The Packers will be the favorites to win the NFC North for the third straight season this year and Green Bay will likely be one of the popular picks to win the Super Bowl again. The Packers stumbled to an 11-5 finish last season and ending up in the #3 spot in the NFC playoff picture proved to be too difficult as Green Bay saw an early playoff exit for the second year in a row. Green Bay was the highest-scoring team in this division last season but in the playoffs the defense showed glaring concerns with an embarrassing loss at San Francisco to end the season. Green Bay will open the season where they left off with a Week 1 match-up at Candlestick Park, a contest they lost in during the opening week last season as well. Having to play San Francisco as well as Atlanta with the first-place schedule is certainly a challenge for the Packers and overall it is not an easy slate for the green and gold. The first four road games of the season will all be against 2012 playoff teams and Green Bay will only play one road game against a team that had a losing record last season, the division game at Detroit in early December.

In the AFC North draw, the Packers get road games against the Super Bowl champion Ravens as well as the Bengals and the Packers will also have to play a road game against another recent nemesis, the New York Giants. The Packers have gone 15-1 at home the last two seasons and that is a run that could continue with a relatively favorable home slate, though there are just four games against losing teams from 2012 on the schedule the whole season. Green Bay will not have to play consecutive road games at any point in the season which is a favorable break in the schedule, especially compared with the rest of the division but the closing schedule is tough with a gauntlet of big national games with Atlanta, Dallas, Pittsburgh, and Chicago as the final four opponents. The Packers also will play four road games in the Eastern Time zone as well as the opener in the Pacific Time zone for some lengthy trips. Green Bay will have its work cut out for it this season and the door may be open for a surprise in the NFC North, although none of the other three teams appear poised to make that leap.

Green Bay Packers 2013 Schedule Numbers:
2013 Opponents Win Percentage in 2012: .533
Games vs. 2012 Playoff Teams: 7 (three home, four away)
Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 6,785
Back-to-Back road game sets: 0
Primetime Games: 5 (one Thanksgiving, three Sunday night, one Monday)

**StarDust Bum** · 06-14-2013, 01:44 AM

NFC South Outlook

June 12, 2013

The Hall of Fame Game to open the NFL preseason is just around the corner, less than two months away. The NFL draft and injury reports from mini-camps steal the spotlight in the summer, but the April release of the 2013 schedule can be a more telling factor in how a team will fare next season. Take a look at the four teams in the NFC South this season. Atlanta ran away with this division last season, but all four teams look like potential playoff teams this season.

Atlanta Falcons: Atlanta had the best record in the NFL last season along with Denver and while the Falcons finally did win a playoff game, they will be remembered more for blowing a substantial lead in the NFC Championship game. All three NFC South opponents went just 7-9 last year, but all three Atlanta regular season losses came within the division. The NFC South figures to again be a very competitive division race after all four teams went 3-3 in the division last season. The Falcons alternated home and road games the entire way through last season en route to a great record and the top seed in the NFC, but this year they will face two sets of back-to-back road games and a couple of long trips late in the season with games in Phoenix, Toronto, Green Bay, and San Francisco. Being the only team in the NFC South that has to play Green Bay is certainly a disadvantage and the South will face off with the NFC West, meaning games with both Seattle and San Francisco. The AFC East draw does look promising at this point and the Falcons will face New England at home early in the season for a Week 4 Sunday night game.

The Falcons will only play two road games against teams that made the playoffs last season, but they are both late in the year in difficult circumstances. The final four weeks of the schedule are very difficult overall for the Falcons, so it is unlikely that this team will coast to a top seed in the conference this season. Atlanta also has an early Week 6 bye week which could magnify the difficulty of the December slate. The end results of the season for the Falcons will likely come down to the division games as they will not likely be able to produce a 10-0 mark outside of the division again with this schedule. Another 3-3 season in this division might mean missing the playoffs this year as the Falcons will play four games outside of the division against teams that would be considered in the top elite tier of the league. All signs point to a drop in record for Atlanta this season with a much tougher schedule in a division where there may not be much separation between the top and the bottom. Atlanta would still be a championship contender if they get into the playoffs but it will be a tougher regular season path.

Atlanta Falcons 2013 Schedule Numbers:
2013 Opponents Win Percentage in 2012: .504
Games vs. 2012 Playoff Teams: 5 (three home, two away)
Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 8,317
Back-to-Back road game sets: 2 (includes a neutral site game in Toronto)
Primetime Games: 5 (one Thursday, two Sunday night, two Monday)

Carolina Panthers: The Panthers were a popular pick to make a big rise last season after a strong finish to the 2011 season in Cam Newton’s rookie year. Carolina opened the year 1-6 for a great disappointment, but with wins in the final four games of the season, Carolina did finish 7-9 to improve by one game from the previous season. In year three for Newton and head coach Ron Rivera, the expectations will be higher this season and a push towards the playoff might be needed to avoid some big changes. Carolina has been dealt the most difficult schedule in the league according win percentage from last year as they catch a tough break, technically finishing in 2nd place in the NFC South last season and drawing the Vikings and the Giants as opposed to the 3rd and 4th place teams that New Orleans and Tampa Bay will face.

Carolina does draw an early Week 4 bye week which does not look ideal, but it will split up a tough early schedule with three of the first five on the road and the two home games coming against the Seahawks and Giants. While Carolina is capable of a big step forward season, this is a squad that could again struggle early in the year and see the tide turn against itself internally. November will also be a brutal month for the Panthers with games against Atlanta, San Francisco, and New England in consecutive weeks. The Panthers will play five straight games against teams that did not make the playoffs last season after that, but it is far from an easy stretch as two of the games will be against New Orleans, a team that will be ready for Carolina after the Panthers took both games last season. Carolina will likely be an exciting team that can compete with anyone and will be capable of upsets, but another mediocre season is probably the most likely result with a difficult schedule and a division that is not getting any easier.

Carolina Panthers 2013 Schedule Numbers:
2013 Opponents Win Percentage in 2012: .543
Games vs. 2012 Playoff Teams: 6 (three home, three away)
Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 8,996
Back-to-Back road game sets: 1
Primetime Games: 2 (one Thursday, one Monday)

New Orleans Saints: The Saints had a brutal off-season prior to last season and it showed with a 0-4 start to the year. The Saints were competitive the rest of the way and put up huge offensive numbers, but the defense allowed historic yardage numbers. New Orleans has made a lot of roster and administrative changes, but it should be a much smoother start to the season in 2013 with head coach Sean Payton back on the sidelines. The Saints also draw a reasonable starting schedule with only two games against 2012 playoff teams in the first 10 weeks of the season. There are some tough games on this schedule including road games at New England and at Seattle, but the third-place draw brings in Dallas and Chicago and the AFC East draw presents opportunities for wins. New Orleans is just two years removed from a 13-3 season, so this is a team that is capable of a quick turnaround back to the upper echelon of the NFC and while this is far from an easy schedule it might play out better than the slates that the chief division foes will face.

There are three sets of back-to-back road games on the schedule, including a brutal trip from Atlanta to Seattle in back-to-back weeks, but that difficulty is minimized a bit with the first game coming on a Thursday and the second game coming on a Monday. Overall, the road schedule is very difficult for the Saints as only one opponent finished worse than 7-9 last year. The Saints could get some early season momentum as they have perhaps the most favorable first half schedule in this division and they also have the latest bye week in the division. No slate in the NFC South is easy this season and ultimately New Orleans will need to improve in the divison, starting off with a huge opening game with Atlanta at home that could dictate the direction of the season. Overall, the Saints look like a serious threat to be in the playoff mix if they have a strong first month and can get quickly acclimated to the new defensive scheme.

New Orleans Saints 2013 Schedule Numbers:
2013 Opponents Win Percentage in 2012: .539
Games vs. 2012 Playoff Teams: 5 (two home, three away)
Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 9,052
Back-to-Back road game sets: 3
Primetime Games: 4 (one Thursday, one Sunday night, two Monday)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Buccaneers made an early splash last season starting out 6-4, before losing five of the final six games of the season to fall to 7-9. Getting to 7-9 and a three-way tie in the bottom of the NFC South may prove to be a big advantage this season, as Tampa Bay earned the fourth-place schedule for the 2013 season through ‘losing’ the tiebreakers. That advantage is pronounced given the draws of Philadelphia and Detroit versus the teams the rest of the division has to face from the NFC North and NFC East. Tampa Bay will play a team that finished with a losing record last season in six of eight home games this season and while the road schedule is more difficult, five of the eight games will be against teams that had losing records in 2012. By last season’s records, Tampa Bay has by far the weakest schedule in this division, but they will need to keep pace with this strong group of teams as it will not be easy to go 3-3 in the division again like last season when they caught a few teams by surprise early in the year. Tampa Bay does draw both New England and Seattle on the road for long trips and difficult environments, but getting a more favorable set of home games as a result should pay dividends.

Tampa Bay made very aggressive moves to address issues in the secondary this offseason and in this division with three explosive offensive attacks that should be money well spent as an improved pass defense would be very beneficial. Tampa Bay was just -5 in point differential last season, as this was a team that scored more than 24 points per game. Seven of last year’s nine losses came by eight points or less, so this is a team with a serious dark horse possibility in the NFC picture. This should be the most favorable schedule in this group of teams in the NFC South, far from a sure sign of success, but the opportunity will be there for the Buccaneers to make some noise this season and play itself into the playoff mix. That said with all four teams looking viable, someone will fall short of those goals and the Buccaneers certainly have less stability in key spots than the other teams that play in this division.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2013 Schedule Numbers:
2013 Opponents Win Percentage in 2012: .500
Games vs. 2012 Playoff Teams: 5 (two home, three away)
Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 9,587
Back-to-Back road game sets: 2
Primetime Games: 2 (one Thursday, one Monday)

**StarDust Bum** · 06-14-2013, 01:45 AM

AFC West Outlook

June 5, 2013

The Hall of Fame Game to open the NFL preseason is just two months away! The NFL draft and injury reports from mini-camps steal the spotlight in the summer, but the April release of 2013 schedule can be a more telling factor in how a team will fare next season. Take a look at the four teams in the AFC West this season. This division appears to be Denver's to lose, but there always seems to be a few surprises in the NFL each season.

Denver Broncos: After starting the 2012 season at 2-3, Denver rattled off 11 consecutive wins to close the regular season, tying Atlanta for the best record in the NFL. The only record that mattered was 0-1 however, as Denver was knocked out of the playoffs at home in a wild overtime game at home against the eventual Super Bowl champion Ravens. Usually first-place teams are dealt a difficult schedule the following year, but Denver has the lowest 2012 win percentage for its 2013 opponents in the entire NFL. That simplified approach to determining strength of schedule has many faults, but Denver certainly resides in a division that presents a great advantage over most of the other contenders in the NFL. San Diego and Kansas City are both going through coaching changes, while the Raiders are still a young team in flux with a second-year head coach. None of those three teams has had a winning record in either of the past two seasons. Denver went 6-0 last season in its division games with an average margin of victory of 17.5 points and the Broncos will likely be heavy favorites in each matchup again, as five of those six games will be in the second half of the season.

Denver again opens with a couple of big games right off the bat, opening the NFL season by hosting Baltimore and then traveling to New York in Week 2, facing the last two Super Bowl champions in the first two weeks of the season. Things soften considerably from there with early season meetings against two more teams in transition, Philadelphia and Jacksonville, with both of those games at home. In drawing the NFC East and the AFC South teams, there is significant travel ahead for the Broncos and two huge games with Indianapolis and New England will both be on the road. The Broncos close the season with four of the final six games of the season on the road, but it seems unlikely that Denver will be stuck in a tight division race barring a serious injury issues. It might make it tough to wrap up a protected top-2 seed if the Broncos should be caught in a tight race as games late in the year on the road might be difficult, even in this division. Overall, Denver fans should be thrilled with this slate, but a lot of things still have to go right to have back-to-back 13-3 seasons.

Denver Broncos 2013 Schedule Numbers:
2013 Opponents Win Percentage in 2012: .430
Games vs. 2012 Playoff Teams: 5 (two home, three away)
Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 9,849
Back-to-Back road game sets: 2
Primetime Games: 5 (two Thursday, Two Sunday night, One Monday)

Kansas City Chiefs: It was a disastrous and tragic season for the Chiefs on and off the field last season, but with veteran coach Andy Reid taking over and still plenty of holdover talent, Kansas City will be a candidate for a significant improvement. After going just 2-14 last season, there is nowhere to go but up and the Chiefs have a schedule that will afford many opportunities to find wins. In only one of the first nine games of the season will the Chiefs face a 2012 playoff team and they will face fellow teams in coaching transitions in two of the first three weeks. Kansas City also has five of the first eight games at home, which could afford an opportunity for a promising start to the season. Kansas City incredibly went 0-12 against the AFC last season and 0-6 within this division and had a bevy of other unflattering numbers including not leading in regulation at any point in the first eight games of last season. The Chiefs also had 37 turnovers last season, a simply astounding number and with the Chiefs losing five games by 10 points or less, it was a big factor that greatly impacted the season.

Adding Alex Smith and improving the offensive line should help in that regard and the schedule will present opportunities especially early in the year. The late-season schedule is much more difficult with two games against Denver in the span of three weeks as well as both games with San Diego late in the year. The Chiefs also must face Washington and Indianapolis in December, so Kansas City will likely need to get its wins early in the year to make a big leap in the standings. Ultimately the results for the Chiefs will depend on improving within the division and being able to get wins against Oakland and San Diego after going 0-4 in those games last season. With a reasonable slate, it is hard not to imaging the Chiefs showing an improved record this season, but a potential promising start could likely fade late in the year.

Kansas City Chiefs 2013 Schedule Numbers:
2013 Opponents Win Percentage in 2012: .473
Games vs. 2012 Playoff Teams: 5 (three home, two away)
Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 8,977
Back-to-Back road game sets: 1
Primetime Games: 1 (one Thursday)

Oakland Raiders: Oakland has significant travel ahead with two trips across the country to New York as well as trips to the Midwest. The Raiders will also face two sets of back-to-back road games with long travel in the span of five weeks. Oakland will only face five games against 2012 playoff teams all season and only three of those games are out of the division. Being the third-place team from this division last season features the disadvantage of playing the Steelers and Jets, perhaps a less favorable duo than second-place San Diego will face and the long travel particularly in the second half of the season could take a toll on this squad.

Oakland opens up with very tough games early in the season with 2012 playoff teams in three of the first four weeks of the season, although with home games with Jacksonville and San Diego as well as a trip to Kansas City in the first six weeks of the season, it would not be a shock to see the Raiders at 3-3 entering an early Week 7 bye week. If the Raiders do not have that kind of a start, it could be another rough season as the schedule is challenging in the middle before closing with five of the final six games of the season against teams that did not make the playoffs last season. The home meeting with Denver in Week 17 could also be an opportunity for a win as the Broncos have a good chance to be locked into a playoff spot and potentially resting players at that point in the season. Oakland won just four games last season, but this was an 8-8 team in both 2010 and 2011 and getting back into that range might be a possibility especially with two teams in this division going through a coaching transition, leaving the Raiders as one of the more stable teams in the group, though that may not last.

Oakland Raiders 2013 Schedule Numbers:
2013 Opponents Win Percentage in 2012: .469
Games vs. 2012 Playoff Teams: 5 (three away, two home)
Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 15,298
Back-to-Back road game sets: 2
Primetime Games: 2 (one Thursday, one Monday)

San Diego Chargers: After several years in a row of seemingly underachieving, the Chargers finally pulled the plug on the Norv Turner era. San Diego will go through a major transition this season, but in this division, the opportunity may be there to avoid a big step back. San Diego was even in point differential last season despite finishing just 7-9 and the Chargers had very good defensive numbers last season. Five of the nine losses came by seven points or less and the Chargers played two close games with division champion Denver despite losing both of those games. The Chargers went just 3-5 at home last season so that is a big area of concern and an easy way to find improvement, through San Diego will have a challenging home slate this season featuring four 2012 playoff teams plus the Cowboys and Giants. That does mean that San Diego will also have a very weak road schedule and the Chargers will get to play six of the first seven road games of the season against teams that had losing records last season before a Thursday night road finale late in the season at Denver.

San Diego does play two sets of back-to-back road games and those games could be made trickier by the first leg being in the east coast in both instances, making for taxing travel. San Diego will open the season Monday night at home against Houston and then face a short week with a long trip to Philadelphia so a slow start would not be a surprise for this team, even if the schedule grades out favorably on paper. San Diego will have the potential to close the year strong with four of the final five games of the season at home although several teams will be thrilled to visit San Diego in December to escape cold conditions at home. San Diego has not been that far from being a playoff caliber team in recent seasons, but the big changes coupled with a schedule that starts out tougher than it finishes could spell more disappointment in Southern California.

San Diego Chargers 2013 Schedule Numbers:
2013 Opponents Win Percentage in 2012: .457
Games vs. 2012 Playoff Teams: 6 (four home, two away)
Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 8,477
Back-to-Back road game sets: 2
Primetime Games: 3 (one Thursday, two Monday)

**StarDust Bum** · 06-14-2013, 05:48 PM

NFL Games of the Year: Giants road weary vs. Eagles in Week 8

Odds are out for the biggest and best games of the upcoming NFL season. Covers Expert Jesse Schule gives you his insight into some of these marquee matchups and predicts where the odds could move before kickoff.

NFL Week 8: New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (Pick)

Past History: Philadelphia is 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS since 2010.

Early look at the Giants: With a win total of 10, the Giants are expected to improve on a disappointing 9-7 season in 2012. The Giants will be coming off a Monday night game against Minnesota, playing on short rest. They also have a road-heavy schedule in the first half, playing five of eight away from New York.

Early look at the Eagles: The Eagles have a new coach and Chip Kelly has his work cut out for him. He hasn't made a lot of changes on offense, opting to keep Michael Vick at quarterback, but he's given the defense quite an overhaul.

Where this line will move: This will be the second meeting between these teams, and the result of the first meeting will likely have an impact on the line for this game. If Vick can stay healthy and the Eagles can string together a few wins, they might find themselves favorites by game day.
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**StarDust Bum** · 06-14-2013, 05:49 PM

NFL Top 3: Pass-happy teams looking to run more

The NFL is rapidly becoming a pass-happy league, with scores and totals reaching an all-time high. But no matter how far your quarterback can throw the ball, there is still two sides to the offensive playbook.

Running the football isn’t just about setting up big plays and eating the clock and these three teams are trying to prove it by adding a steady dose of ground to their air-it-out attacks this season. With that in mind, over/under bettors should keep close tabs on their totals, as a potent injection of the rushing game can keep scores low and under the number.

Green Bay Packers (2012: 11-5 SU, 8-8 O/U)

Pass offense: Ninth (253.1 ypg)
Run offense: 20th (106.4 ypg)

The Packers rushed for just over 106 yards per game last season, good for 20th in the league. Green Bay’s RB depth chart was a game of musical chairs, moving in guys like Ryan Grant, Cedric Benson, James Starks and Alex Green. Aaron Rodgers had to do some of the tough sledding himself, finishing second on the team in rushing.

The Cheeseheads feel much better about their ground game this season. They drafted Eddie Lacy and Johnathan Franklin and head coach Mike McCarthy told NFL.com there will be vast improvements to Green Bay’s running game. Don’t expect the Packers to air it out as much, at least not in the early going.

Dallas Cowboys (2012: 8-8 SU, 8-8 O/U)

Pass offense: Third (295.6 ypg)
Run offense: 31st (79.1 ypg)

The Cowboys ran the ball just 355 times in 2012. That ranked as the second fewest handoffs in the NFL and was a franchise low in rushing attempts. Part of the problem was an injury to RB DeMarco Murray, who missed six games in the middle of the schedule. The other issue was trigger-happy head coach Jason Garrett, who couldn’t help but let Tony Romo sling the ball on every snap.

The playbook has been plucked from Garrett’s clutches – we think – and turned over to new offensive coordinator Bill Callahan, who is a fan of the West Coast offense. While Callahan says he’s not straying too far from Garrett’s playbook, you can expect more touches for Murray and less long bombs in 2013.

Atlanta Falcons (2012: 13-3 SU, 5-11 O/U)

Pass offense: Sixth (281.8 ypg)
Run offense: 29th (87.3 ypg)

The Falcons have replaced one battering-ram RB with another, dumping Michael Turner for former Rams rusher Steven Jackson. However, it will be interesting to see how well Jackson does with defenses not stacking the box. Having a QB like Matt Ryan and a dangerous WR corps should keep opponents honest and give Jackson plenty of room, something he didn’t have in St. Louis.

According to Jeanna Thomas of The Falconholic, if you swapped out Jackson’s 2012 statistics with Turner’s, Atlanta’s run game would jump from 29th to 22nd overall. And that’s not considering Jackson’s ability to make gains on the screen pass. Early chatter out of camp is that the 30-year-old dreadlocked downhill runner looks like a 22 year old. If that’s the case, the Falcons could continue to play under the total with new life in the ground game.

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