The Bum's 2013 Kentucky Derby Scoops and Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Saturday's six-pack

CBS from Chicago posted some experts' picks for the Kentucky Derby:

-- John Asher, Vice President of Racing Communications at Churchill Downs: 1. Revolutionary, 2. Orb, 3. Normandy Invasion

-- Jill Byrnem, Official Handicapper at Churchill Downs: 1. Revolutionary, 2. Orb, 3. Normandy Invasion

-- Ed DeRosa, Director of Marketing for Brisnet.com: 1. Itsmyluckyday, 2. Revolutionary, 3. Goldencents

-- James Scully, Editor of the Handicapper’s Edge: 1. Orb, 2. Itsmyluckyday, 3. Overanalyze

-- Mitch Rosen, Program Director of 670 The Score: 1. Revolutionary, 2. Will Take Charge, 3. Overanalyse

-- Matt Abbatacola, Executive Producer at 670 The Score: 1. Verrazano, 2. Overanalyze, 3. Frac Daddy.

-- Adam Hoge, Sports Editor of CBS Chicago-- 1. Revolutionary, 2. Goldencents, 3. Will Take Charge.


*****

Armadillo: Saturday's Den: DDLohaus analyzes the Kentucky Derby...........

2013 Kentucky Derby Analysis
To quote one of my favorite movies “What a day”.. Well maybe Mother Nature isn’t going to cooperate but nevertheless, 20 horses will be going to the post for the 139th Run for the Roses.
The controversial point system appears to have sorted out the top 20 and away we go….

As I write this the weather appears to be less than ideal yet somehow I believe the 100,000+ fans will still make the best of what promises to be a great day of racing (and wagering!).

As I go over the field I see an excellent opportunity to get value and with the uncertain forecast makes the race even more appealing, if not more difficult to handicap.

Key Contenders:

Orb has done nothing wrong leading up to this race and there is no reason to believe he won’t fire his best shot here. He seemed to have something left in the tank in last which should have him primed for a big race. Top veteran jockey points to a lot to like.

Verrazano heads a group of five (yes five) from Todd Pletcher. He is undefeated and we all know he is being handled right. While a winner in last, I am not convinced it was that good an effort. Don’t know if it was the distance but I think he may not be at his best at ten furlongs. With that said it is awfully hard to pick against him.

Revolutionary is another out of the Pletcher stable and one that I think moves up on a wet track. Nice wide move in last and gets a jockey who knows his way around Churchill Downs (and the winners circle). Castellano picking another is a question mark and I question some of his competition but this guy would not be a surprise.

Normandy Invasion ran second to Verrazano in the Wood but the way he did it has me a little excited. He closed well into a slow pace and galloped out strongly. This guy hasn’t won in a while and has trouble at the start; which in this field may not be a bad thing if he can save some ground and tuck in behind the first flight. Third off the layoff and a very talented trainer says that if he is good enough he can take it all.

Goldencents ran a real nice race in the SA Derby but it seemed to be the perfect set-up. Listen, Pitino is king of the world right now and Doug O’Neil knows how to win the big ones. Ran second to Shanghai Bobby last year and that one was a monster…tough call…

Second Tier:

Itsmyluckyday: Solid horse who may have run his best race in last…maybe he can fire again but must beat a better field along with likely more traffic in front of him.

Java’s War: Bluegrass winner has some appeal but little success at CD and a history of gate/start troubles tells me he won’t be ready when the gate opens

Vyjack: Handled grade III company and made a nice showing when stepped up to grade I
caliber horses. Since I like Normandy Invasion I like this one a little too. Use in exotics.

Mylute: Last was really nice effort but earlier races a bit too inconsistent to give me a lot of confidence in this guy. Ambitious jockey means they will be trying.

Frac Daddy: Has danced with the big boys on more than one occasion and has had very good success at CD; may like home course advantage…

Selections:

I really liked the last race of Normandy Invasion. I tend to favor horses that were moving well late in a race leading up to a stakes race. He closed into a slow pace and I think he was screaming for a little more distance. Orb is strictly the one to beat. No knock here as he seems to keep getting better and better…can’t win them all (can they?). Revolutionary moves up on wet surface and Borel knows how to navigate this oval…

I think there are a legitimate ten (10) horses that can win this race and a lot depends on track condition, position, trip and luck. The value is ALWAYS there and I know I say this every year but if you like a horse and have your reasons, it’s a good bet. Listen, if we knew the winners in advance we’d all be rich…the race must be run and no-one really knows…
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[StarDust Bum]

Kentucky Derby betting: Horse-by-horse preview and picks

Two trail blazers will try to make history in Saturday's Kentucky Derby. Rosie Napravnik rides Mylute trying to become the first woman to win the race and Kevin Krigger looks to become the first African-American jockey to win the Run for the Roses in over a century.

Here's a look at Saturday's 19-horse field and the Kentucky Derby odds after the No. 1 horse, Black Onyx, was scratched:

2. Oxbow (Jockey-G. Stevens) 30-1

Ran a dismal fifth as the second choice in the Arkansas Derby. Lacked the gate speed and really didn't close well either.

3. Revolutionary (C. Borel) 10-1

Three-time Kentucky Derby winner Calvin Borel makes this one a legitimate threat. Revolutionary has won three straight, including a gritty effort in the Louisiana Derby.

4. Golden Soul (R. Albarado) 50-1

Had a rough trip finishing fourth in the Louisiana Derby. Is a hard-working colt but barely drew into the field and doesn’t figure to be in the mix.

5. Normandy Invasion (J. Castellano) 12-1

All the signs point to a major effort from this one. He’s in fine form and Castellano chose to ride him over Revolutionary.

6. Mylute (R. Napravnik) 15-1

Reunited with Napravnik, who was aboard in Mylute's last win in an allowance race at Fair Grounds, he was heavily raced as a two year old. Trainer Tom Amoss said he lacks the killer instinct but he's been improving and a threat to hit the board.

7. Giant Finish (J. Espinoza) 50-1

Figures to be the longest shot on the board. Didn't have the speed to take the lead at 23-1 in a Grade III event last time out. Pass.

8. Goldencents (K. Krigger) 5-1

How's this for a daily double? Louisville coach Rick Pitino will try to become the first coach to win an NCAA basketball title and the Kentucky Derby in the same year. Trainer Doug O'Neill won the race last year with I'll Have Another.

9. Overanalyze (R. Bejarano) 15-1

Was a bit rank in winning the Arkansas Derby and had to survive a claim of foul in the race but it was still an impressive performance.

10. Palace Malice (M. Smith) 20-1

Could move up on an off track. He’s bred for the distance and has worked well. By Curlin and adds blinkers. He’ll get a call at some time in the race.

11. Lines of Battle (R. Moore) 30-1

Trained in Ireland by Aidan O'Brien, he’s shown he can get the distance but he’s loaded with so many other variables. Has never raced on dirt and has run just once this year.

12. Itsmyluckyday (E. Trujillo) 15-1

Has the second-best Beyer speed figure in the race and was a solid second to favorite Orb in the Florida Derby. Figures to be there, maybe second.

13. Falling Sky (L. Saez) 50-1

After relinquishing the lead in the Arkansas Derby, this one dug back in and reclaimed the edge before fading in the stretch. Figures to set the pace again here.

14. Verrazano (J. Velazquez) 4-1

One of five horses trainer Todd Pletcher will saddle in the race. No horse that didn’t run as a two year old has won the Kentucky Derby since 1882, but Verrazano has won all four of his starts including a game effort as the well-bet favorite in the Wood Memorial.

15. Charming Kitten (E. Prado) 20-1

The fact that this one has never run on a dirt track before raises a red flag. Works weren't bad but there are too many questions to recommend.

16. Orb (J. Rosario) 7-2

Shug McGaughey star was installed as the morning-line favorite after winning each of his three races this season. Has the hottest jockey in the sport aboard and, while the post is unfavorable, his workouts are certainly sharp. McGaughey has never won the Kentucky Derby and said if his horse can get a clean trip to the first turn he can win it. If...

17. Will Take Charge (J. Court) 20-1

Trainer D. Wayne Lukas last won the Kentucky Derby with Charismatic in 1999. Has the game passed him by? The No. 17 horse has never won the Derby.

18. Frac Daddy (V. Lebron) 50-1

Was no match for Overanalyze in the Arkansas Derby despite a good run toward the front. The added distance in the Kentucky Derby could prove costly.

19. Java's War (J. Leparoux) 15-1

Has tactical speed but may choose to unleash his solid stretch run here. Has won three of his seven races and was a fine second to Verrazano in the Tampa Bay Derby.

20. Vyjack (G. Gomez) 15-1

Colt has been under 24-hour surveillance after three of trainer Rudy Rodriguez's horses have tested positive for a banned substance in the past year. He must be related to A-Rod. Vyjack doesn't have the pedigree.

Picks: Orb, Itsmyluckyday, Normandy Invasion
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[StarDust Bum]

Kentucky Derby weather report: rain expected

Churchill Downs will see overcast skies with rain showers. Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with winds blowing between 5-15 mph.

At 5:00 p.m. ET, roughly 85 minutes before the race, the forecast calls for nine mph winds going south with showers.

No horse has an edge in the sloppy conditions. All 19 horses are inexperienced on muddy tracks, according to UPI.

"It'll make the Derby much more wide open," said Frac Daddy and Java's War trainer Kenny McPeek. "How they handle it and what kind of trips they get are completely out of our control."

Normandy Invasion trainer Chad Brown said he doesn't train his horses on wet tracks.

"I don't know if you can teach them to like it. We're going to find out with them," Brown said to UPI.

Golden Soul's trainer, Dallas Stewart, says that his horse is "out of a Mr. Prospector mare and they love the mud."

Here's the odds for the race:

Verrazano +300
Orb +300
Goldencents +350
Itsmyluckyday +400
Revolutionary +550
Normandy Invasion +1,000
Overanalyze +1,200
Java's War +1,500
Mylute +1,500
Vyjack +1,800
Will Take Charge +2,000
Palace Malice +2,200
Frac Daddy +2,500
Oxbow +3,000
Lines Of Battle +3,000
Golden Soul +4,500
Falling Sky +5,000

Black Onyx has been scratched from the race due to a bone chip in his front left ankle.
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[StarDust Bum]

Black Onyx scratched from Kentucky Derby

May 3, 2013



LOUISVILLE, Ky. (AP) - Long shot Black Onyx was a late scratch for the Kentucky Derby because of a chip in his left ankle, leaving 19 horses to vie for the roses.

The scratch occurred Friday after early wagering for the race had opened, so Black Onyx's No. 1 post position will be left empty on Saturday. The remaining horses will stay in their original starting gate positions.

Trainer Kelly Breen said the colt looked good training on Friday, but he had some swelling in the ankle, so an X-ray was taken which revealed the chip.

``He's back in the barn. He's not feeling that bad because he just tried to bite me,'' Breen said. ``It couldn't have been worse timing.''

He said it's too early to know if Black Onyx will need surgery or just recover on his own.

Jockey Joe Bravo was left without a Derby mount. He hasn't won the race in two previous attempts.

``I'm just very thankful that the horse is going to be OK,'' he said. ``I'm just really sorry for the whole team.''

The scratch came too late for Fear the Kitten to get into the Derby. The colt was on the list of also eligibles as the 21st qualifier in the point standings which determine the field.

Black Onyx qualified for the Derby by winning the Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park. He was 50-1 on the morning line.

[StarDust Bum]

Shug’s Derby Diary: Final Preparations

Shug McGaughey has saddled nine Eclipse Award champions and nine Breeders’ Cup winners during a Hall of Fame training career that has spanned more than three decades. The native of Lexington, Ky., looks to win the race of his dreams as he prepares Orb for the Kentucky Derby on May 4. McGaughey, 62, is taking visitors to America’s Best Racing along for the ride. Here is the second installment of his Derby Diary, as told to Tom Pedulla:

I could not stop smiling after Orb worked four furlongs in 47 4/5 seconds on Monday at Churchill Downs. I felt relieved to have it behind us and I was elated with how well it went. I sent him out with Jennifer Patterson, who has worked him every time and is able to give me what I want every time. She is a huge part of our team and she delivered again.

One of Orb’s few flaws is a tendency to wait on horses once he makes the lead, thinking he has done enough. So I sent him out with a stablemate, Overwhelming, as company with the hope that he would put her away and keep on going. He did that as easily as you would ever want to see. Jennifer said she never had him at a high gallop.

The work was another sign of what I have known since he shipped from Payson Park to Churchill Downs. Not all horses like this track. He is just fine with it and, after running him three times at speed-favoring Gulfstream Park, I cannot wait to run him here. I would not be surprised if he is the post-time favorite. He has done so well here and people have seen it.

In this business, it is rare when everything goes according to plan. So far, this has. He had gate problems early in his career, so that is always something for us to pay attention to. He went to the gate last Friday morning and he was perfect. I schooled him in the paddock last Saturday. It went as well as I could expect.

I can’t tell you how he is going to handle the huge crowd on Derby day. It is a concern, but it is a concern for every horse. It is something they have never seen before and will never see again. We’ll just try to stay cool – him and me.

I know I will get nervous as the big day approaches. For now, I keep telling myself that we have done everything we can do. We needed things to go the right way, and they have. My people have done a wonderful job of being as all in as I am. It takes a team, and I could not be happier with the members of my team.

That group includes, of course, our jockey, Joel Rosario. As pleased as I was with how John Velazquez handled Orb when he won the Fountain of Youth and the Florida Derby, I was equally satisfied to regain Rosario once Velazquez took another direction with Verrazano.

Rosario rode the horse earlier and no jockey in the world is hotter than he is right now. He is on fire. His confidence has to be through the roof, and my confidence in him is through the roof. He is a young, energetic rider trying to get accomplished what every young rider – and one older trainer – wants to get accomplished.

I will not give him a lot of prerace instructions. I know our horse will go the mile and a quarter, and that means a lot. I do think it will be important to get Orb into the race early. There does not look to be a great deal of pace and I do not want to leave him with too much to do. Beyond that, I will wish Joel good luck and tell him to ride his race because no one can be sure what will happen once those gates open.

It has meant so much the last few weeks to have people I never met before wish us good luck. I was going through the airport in New York last weekend and it happened. It seems that everywhere I go, people are wishing us well.

I have been asked many times what it would mean to my career to finally win the Derby. I can only tell you this is the race that is on top of my list and has been for a long time.

Will it happen? With a 20-horse field, so much will depend on the trip. If all goes well, I think we have a tremendous opportunity to win. If it does not, we will pack up and wait for the next crop of 2-year-olds to arrive with the hope they always bring.

[StarDust Bum]

Not on my tickets

LINES OF BATTLE: None of the Coolmore stock from Ireland ever has done anything off the plane in the Kentucky Derby, and this year’s UAE Derby was one of its weakest ever, with Soft Falling Rain skipping the race to run in the Godolphin Mile. The UAE Derby also lacked a Godolphin blueblood of any repute this year, so there’s less to appreciate about that race than even Daddy Long Legs a year ago. And he finished last under distress in Louisville. Lines of Battle clearly is not the worst horse in the race, but he would appear once again miscast in the wrong race in his stable’s pursuit of history.

GIANT FINISH: The last horse to enter the Derby picture just before the draw, this New York-bred has not faced top competition. His pressing, forward style likely will find him chasing quicker runners and giving way when the real running begins. Trainer Tony Dutrow said he would send an assistant down to saddle the horse. If the trainer’s not showing up, neither is my money.

FALLING SKY: Rarely are horses who finish in the high teens in the Derby the late-running plodders, so the weakest of the early pacesetters and chasers often end up in retreat. If he gave away five lengths late in the Arkansas Derby and Tampa Bay Derby with modest paces, the extra distance, bigger field, and increased pressure Saturday could triple that total, unless he runs the race of his life. Faith in him delivering such a performance, not shown anywhere in his past performances, has checked out of my hotel. I would love more than anyone to see a grandson of Sea Hero win this, as he still rates one of my favorite horses – and Derby winners – ever. But fondness doth not make a wallet thick.

VYJACK: There’s no mystery about it: Vyjack is as mysterious as any horse in this year’s Derby. He won four straight starts before suffering his first loss in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial, where he finished a length behind Verrazano in third. After the race, word from the ownership was that Vyjack bled (through Lasix). That soon changed to a lung infection, and regardless of the ailment, Vyjack was shipped from his Aqueduct home base to the Fair Hill training center in Maryland so he could be treated in the hyperbaric oxygen chamber. If it was a lung infection and it has cleared up, we could see a return to his big win in the Gotham Stakes. The gelding looked to have special qualities in that score, like Smarty Jones in 2004. But if he carries an issue with bleeding through Lasix, the demands of the Kentucky Derby, in conjunction with a pedigree that’s already sketchy to achieve the trip, could result in a total retreat. This is a horse who could finish first or last and makes it difficult for me to put him in the middle ground. He has the ability to become the next Kentucky Derby winner but will have to do it with my cash sitting on the sidelines. If you’re ranking the most talented of this crop, he’s way farther up the charts than this. But for Saturday’s race, we have too many other options with less mystery.

BLACK ONYX: If you’re building a statue of a Derby winner, hire this guy to be the stand-in model. Unfortunately, he was scratched from the Derby on Friday morning.

WILL TAKE CHARGE: The long layoff and lack of a 1 1/8-mile prep are two serious violations of trust when it comes to a Derby horse for me. I’ve been a fan of this guy since Keeneland last fall, and his Unbridled’s Song-Take Charge Lady pedigree made him a dream date for a return to the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes. The fact that trainer D. Wayne Lukas opted to train him for seven weeks instead of running in a race he was born to compete in makes me skeptical that he is about to peak. We’ve seen Will Take Charge show speed in some races and settle more in others. Given that he’s fresh, the Rebel winner might find himself chasing faster horses early but overeager and resisting to settle. If that’s the case, the 10 furlongs are going to get him. He needs too much to go right for me to recommend, even if I am a fan.

FEAR THE KITTEN: This also-eligible entrant did not make the Derby field because Black Onyx was not scratched until after the Friday morning cutoff time.

GOLDEN SOUL: There’s not much difference between Golden Soul and the aforementioned Fear the Kitten. They ran second and third in the Grade 3 Lecomte while employing similar tactics, and neither has won a race this year or a stakes. If you don’t think the pace comes back the block, this son of Perfect Soul becomes very difficult to recommend. Yes, he’s a closer, but the pedigree doesn’t scream for 10 furlongs. Still, he edged Fear the Kitten in New Orleans and seems marginally better on dirt than that rival. The Louisiana Derby rates as my top prep of the season, and that race’s fast pace likely aided his rally from last of 14 to be fourth. He’s going to pass some horses, but how many remains a number too low for me to use in the superfecta.

MYLUTE: When you ask a good horse to run a bit farther than he’s most likely capable of, his final placing most often is more a product of the competition. Against the right field, with the right pace setup, overcoming pedigree and past-performance limitations can be achieved. It’s all about the matchups in that case. But when the rivals number 19, including nine coming off major graded stakes victories, the possibilities for a horse like Mylute to stave off so many challengers becomes a losing numbers game. This is one of the most talented middle-distance horses in the entire 2013 crop from this eye, but his inability to close out a two-turn race four times in five tries speaks to a massive challenge Saturday. Expect him to be much closer to the pace in the Derby than he was at Fair Grounds, and he will continue to hang on as long as the closers sputter. Those who launch from the back with fervor, however, likely collar him.

CHARMING KITTEN: I love the fact that his dam is named Iteration, which means to repeat a process over and over with the hope that you achieve a desired result. Owners Ken and Sarah Ramsey are going to run their entire litter of Kittens until one hits in the Kentucky Derby. But that forecast this year looks cloudy at best, even if I’ve twisted in the wind more so on this horse than I probably should. I like the turf-to-Poly-to-dirt progression that’s worked so well in recent years for Animal Kingdom, Paddy O’Prado, and others. And Charming Kitten was moving quite well on the back end of the Blue Grass. But trainer Todd Pletcher criticized this colt’s workout earlier in the week, and that’s a situation you simply don’t see unless the workout was decidedly on the disappointing side. I toyed with the three Blue Grass alumni for inclusion on my tickets and will stand against this pricy option with some hesitation.

JAVA’S WAR: Like Charming Kitten, this colt was ringing the bell late in the Grade 1 Blue Grass. But unlike Charming Kitten, we’ve seen what this Ken McPeek trainee can do on dirt, and it was a solid second in the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby. But the audible to run in the Blue Grass was owner Charles Fipke’s, not McPeek’s, and the trainer had cautioned publicly after the Tampa Bay Derby that Java’s War was too small and not built for the rigors of the first Saturday in May. He circled the field in the Blue Grass for a rally that even befuddled a Polytrack student like me. Java’s War wouldn’t be the first horse slight of build to win the Derby. And on dam-side pedigree, which I deem most important for distance success, he’s wonderfully bred to be a successful runner at the Derby distance and beyond. I don’t think he’s of the quality of Dullahan from the 2012 Blue Grass, who wound up third in the Derby, which means his late rally could fall just outside the exotics. But I’m not sure he’s handling the track well enough here this week to make the exotics radar, so I have moved him down some.

OXBOW: I wouldn’t be shocked if veteran jockey Gary Stevens tries to pull a Winning Colors and fires this horse to the lead. Nobody will out-pedigree him for Churchill Downs and 1 1/4 miles. His daddy won the Breeders’ Cup Classic here, and his dam is a sister to Tiznow, who won the first of his two BC Classics under the Twin Spires. The question for Oxbow becomes whether he’s moving the right way coming into the Derby. His Arkansas Derby was subpar in a poor change of tactics, and his training at Churchill Downs has not led anyone to believe that a big bounce-back is near. This is a horse I like a whole bunch, but I’m not sure the Derby works for him. It’s about peaking on the right day, and I’ve lost some faith that Oxbow’s day can be this Saturday. I’ll be cheering for the Golden Boys, Lukas, and Stevens but keeping the gold in my pocket after a tough decision.

VERRAZANO: Fool me three times, and my cap will be doffed for good. Countdown readers may recall (why do I remind you of my bad opinions?) that I swung against Verrazano in the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby and Grade 1 Wood Memorial, each time in favor of horses with the home-field advantage at better prices. Rewinding the video, that didn’t work out too well, as the unbeaten colt kept on winning. Now he comes to Louisville as one of the expected Derby favorites, except that no one with a keyboard or microphone picks him to win this time. I’ve been picking against him all spring. This is a bandwagon that you might not want to board. Furthering things I really shouldn’t remind anyone of, it was early in 2012 that I deemed Verrazano’s older brother, El Padrino, as perhaps Todd Pletcher’s best-prepared early-season Derby hope ever and even went as far as to circle him as the winner before anything bloomed that spring. By the time May rolled around, El Padrino looked like a hot mess at Churchill Downs and was badly off form. The twist here is that Verrazano is the anti-El Padrino, lacking any of that good juvenile foundation but coming into the Derby in a more positive shine. No, the Wood Memorial didn’t dazzle anyone on margins, but it was good enough that it lured John Velazquez off of Grade 1 Florida Derby winner Orb in order to stick with him. If you think Velazquez was tied to Pletcher and that was the lone reason, look no further than to see fellow Pletcher pilot Javier Castellano abandon Revolutionary for the Chad Brown-trained Normandy Invasion. When it comes to Derby mounts, you ride the horse, not the barn. Velazquez’s faith in Verrazano merits weight in our handicapping decisions; it’s not simply a “yes, sir” deal with the barn. To the point of the rider, lest we forget Velazquez is coming back from a fractured rib and wrist in recent days, and those are two pretty important pieces of the operation for a jockey. Couple that with a lack of a 2-year-old foundation that very well could catch up with Verrazano. No unraced juvenile has won the Derby since 1882, and that’s because those horses lacked months of 2-year-old training. Most unraced 2-year-olds are dealing with shin issues and growing pains that prevent them from training, or else they would be at the track. Only a few times in a century does a freak like Curlin or Bodemeister come along and challenge that norm. But even those horses failed to smell the roses. If you believe Verrazano brings more to the party than Curlin or Bodemeister, you go to the windows. If you don’t, you roll the dice like I’m going to Saturday. What’s the penalty for “fool me three times,” anyway?

[StarDust Bum]

Exotics inclusions

FRAC DADDY: Respect the Arkansas trail to Churchill or be beaten by it. That’s the mantra since 2004, when a long procession of horses from that circuit first started dotting the Derby superfecta. They haven’t missed one since. Frac Daddy made a premature move down the backstretch of the Arkansas Derby, one that left him in a drive far too long. If Victor Lebron harnesses the move better Saturday, this Churchill Downs-loving colt appears to want the distance. Not every Oaklawn raider has been a Smarty Jones, Bodemeister, or Curlin in repute. There are Kentucky Derby superfecta fillers like Steppenwolfer, Papa Clem, and Denis of Cork. This is a physically strong, stout colt who has not had the smoothest of seasons, with foot and lung issues. I don’t see him winning, but an exotics jolt approaching 30-1 or 40-1 is not without intrigue as I punch the SAM machine.

NORMANDY INVASION: While he’s narrowly built like Real Quiet, I’m not sure that leggy, slender look will play well in a 20-horse field with his past running style. Normandy Invasion seems a bit fresh in his training of late for his closing style, and perhaps Brown wants him up closer to the pace, but this is no time to change tactics. This is a supremely talented colt with a high ceiling, and he’s capable of more than his 1-for-5 record, but did he get enough out of his two preps? Given the putrid record of the Wood Memorial alumni here the past decade (none in the money since 2003), you wouldn’t be against the grain so much if you took a shot eliminating him. But it’s no easy thing to do with a horse who obviously calls out to you on the screen that he’s a player. I will be including underneath, but probably not an exacta player.

GOLDENCENTS: No horse in Derby 139 appears more dependent on the pace than the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby winner. From point A to point Z, he may be the fastest horse on the trail. But who pushes him off those points across the alphabet soup and pushes his buttons of patience likely decides his fate. While I abandoned his predecessor, I’ll Have Another, from win contender to exotics contender last year after he drew post 19, Goldencents started his evaluation below the win cusp for me, even before the pill pull. I respect him, but I don’t trust him. The California crop has been so bad this year that it resembles nothing of the stalwarts whom that coast boasted in 2012. Horses like Creative Cause, Bodemeister, Paynter, and I’ll Have Another all seem in a league far above what was on display in 2013 out west. The mere fact that Bob Baffert developed not a single Derby horse to make the gate this year puts raises suspicion about just how good Goldencents may be. Stacking up contenders based on strength of schedule still holds merit. To his credit, and why Goldencents is not a toss-out, is the fact that he hit the road at age 2, won a very productive edition of the Grade 3 Delta Jackpot, and was a solid second in the Grade 1 Champagne to since-injured champion juvenile Shanghai Bobby. Where he falls short of I’ll Have Another would be on pedigree for the distance. He’s simply not as well-bred for the route as last year’s champ. But he’s still a viable candidate to take them a very long way and see his number in lights.

ITSMYLUCKYDAY: The Florida winter flash has much more physical presence than I had known. “Lucky” looks like a machine. While it’s fair to wonder if he peaked too early in the year, it’s to trainer Eddie Plesa Jr.’s credit that he backed off of running in February’s Fountain of Youth. That rest might be exactly the right remedy that most early-winter horses who peak too soon aren’t ever given. Itsmyluckyday has been given time to reboot this year, and the spacing of his races and talents could take him a long way Saturday. The pedigree still seems a bit short to win the shooting match. And realistically, you have to assume Orb must come back to him to reverse the Florida Derby finish. Those two factors lead me to put this horse on the bottom of the exotics and not the win end, but he’s a very serious top-five player.

PALACE MALICE: No horse adding blinkers has won the Kentucky Derby since Sea Hero in 1993, but I thought Palace Malice looked exceptional in his workout inside of Overanalyze in recent days. He never gave an inch and galloped out best. The dam-side pedigree built for turf is what I love in a Derby gene pool, and with sire Curlin on top, Palace Malice theoretically should be better the longer he goes. Granted, that defies this horse’s past performances, where he’s guilty of flattening out late in races. My first take on him was that he had a stamina issue, the classic “hanger” who can’t finish his drink. But some “hangers” have idling issues more so than fitness, and increased focus could make them resist the urge to idle when they’ve drawn alongside their rivals. Blinkers on, for a horse like Palace Malice, could make a monumental difference. Albeit a workout and nowhere near the Derby distance, I thought his morning move in blinkers was a step in the direction that this one-time “hanger” might be a price banger to watch. I’ve mentioned my deep respect for this year’s Louisiana Derby, and it’s a fact that the Polytrack preps at Keeneland and Turfway have been highly potent in the Derby superfectas (since 2007, Keeneland’s first spring meet with Polytrack, every year except 2008 has had at least one Polytrack prepper). We talked about this horse back in January in Countdown as one of Las Vegas’s hottest winter-book plays (he was 35-1 at Wynn Las Vegas despite not racing since August), and he’s grown on me in recent weeks. If not for the blinkers, I’d probably be less interested. With them, he’s a horse at 20-1 or 30-1 under Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith, who could be just what your exotics need under a potentially formful win result. And if he’s still a hanger, he wouldn’t be the first to stick the landing on the bottom of a trifecta or superfecta.

OVERANALYZE: Trainer Pletcher called his final Derby workout “the best I’ve seen him breeze ever.” I won’t use words like “best” and “ever” with Overanalyze, but I did rank him as the top 2-year-old of 2012, and his Arkansas Derby victory was as good visually as anyone this season. Granted, it was slow. But it looked good and was done the right way, with a pounce and draw-away style. The success of the Arkansas Derby as the key prep for Louisville has been unmatched since 2004, so winning the Arkansas Derby in commanding fashion makes you a player even if that race appears to be a peg below its par. In Rafael Bejarano, you get one of the best riders in the game not to have won a Kentucky Derby, and it’s only a matter of time before that changes. Two wins at 1 1/8 miles in the Remsen and Arkansas Derby add up to respect. It’s fair to note that he’s run big races every other race, so he’s on pattern to throw a dud. That can be a physical issue when some horses do not reproduce their best every time, but sometimes it’s just a coincidence. The beauty of taking the optimistic view here is that Overanalyze will be every bit of 15-1 or 20-1, so you’ll get paid to err on the side risk.

Win contenders

REVOLUTIONARY: The term “battle-tested” gets tossed around often on the Derby trail, and it’s something for which I’ve always had a fondness. You don’t measure great athletes by their best days. You measure them by their greatest successes when they don’t have their best stuff. Even when faced with impossible adversity in the Withers Stakes this winter at Aqueduct, Revolutionary escaped a race that less than 1 percent of the current horse population could have won. The athleticism to navigate through the stretch that day defies speed figures, brilliance, and the calling cards many horseplayers employ. And if you want speed and brilliance, it’s not like Revolutionary hasn’t shown that. Dial back to his fall maiden win at Aqueduct. Backers will get “Mr. Derby” aboard in Calvin Borel. I hear moans that Borel hurts your price, but price only matters if you win. Losers still cost $2 where I come from. There’s no one you’d want up in this race more than Borel, and if you’re fortunate enough to win, the point or two on the tote board won’t crush your weekend. The pedigree is a slick mix of speed up top by sire War Pass and stamina on the bottom with Runupthecolors, the winner of the Grade 1 Alabama at 1 1/4 miles. Revolutionary’s gallop-out after the Louisiana Derby rates as one of the best I’ve seen on the trail for a horse making that next distance step. If it rains, and the forecast says it could, remember that sire War Pass won the 2007 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Monmouth on perhaps the sloppiest track ever for a major race.

ORB: The Kentucky Derby often comes down to the “now” horse, the one ready to run the race of his life. No horse or jockey is any more “right now” than Orb and pilot Joel Rosario. Fans who watched Rosario make a record-breaking mockery of the Keeneland meeting in April know what I’m talking about. And it’s obvious that Orb has become the “buzz” horse since arriving in Louisville, stealing the spotlight from New Yorkers Verrazano and Normandy Invasion. His recent workouts have cut the price on Orb from what I felt would have been 7-1 or 8-1 to probably 7-2 or 4-1, and that’s a tough pill to swallow if you’ve been hedging on his relative merits against the rest of the field. But I’ve never doubted his talents and place among this crop since he closed twice to win over a Gulfstream Park strip where closers just don’t win like that. Admittedly, there is some Shug McGaughey-homerism going on with a lot of horseplayers who want to see the lovable horseman get his first Derby win. I won’t argue against that sentiment, as there won’t be a more deserving guy under the Twin Spires on Saturday. The only concern will be if Orb can keep it together mentally before the race. If he stays composed, faith in Rosario and the horse to work out the trip are at a maximum level.

It’s a two-horse Derby in my eyes, and the last time I said that was 2006, when Barbaro and Lawyer Ron stood out from the field. The former won by a dominant margin, while the latter exited with a knee chip and later became a champion at age 4. The top pair in this year’s Derby give me that same vibe.

High Fives

Jeremy Plonk’s top-five rated performances by class so far this season (Dec. 26 to present).

Stakes Race
1. ORB (Florida Derby, Gulfstream, March 30)
2. ITSMYLUCKYDAY (Holy Bull, Gulfstream, Jan. 26)
3. VERRAZANO (Wood Memorial, Aqueduct, April 6)
4. VYJACK (Gotham, Aqueduct, March 2)
5. REVOLUTIONARY (Withers, Aqueduct, Feb. 2)

[StarDust Bum]

Kentucky Derby Contender Workouts


HORSE / TRAINER DATE TRACK DISTANCE TIME COMMENT

Orb
S. McGaughey 4/29 Churchill 4f 47.89 Orb impresses in final workout

Oxbow
D. Lukas 4/29 Churchill 5f 59.82 Lukas sends out Derby pair

Will Take Charge
D. Lukas 4/29 Churchill 5f 1:00.82 Lukas prepares two for Derby

Black Onyx
K. Breen 4/27 Churchill 4f 48.59 Black Onyx readies for Derby

Charming Kitten
T. Pletcher 4/27 Churchill 4f 48.31 Charming Kitten no match for Revolutionary

Frac Daddy
K. McPeek 4/27 Churchill 5f 1:02.00 Frac Daddy stronger of McPeek duo

Java's War
K. McPeek 4/27 Churchill 5f 1:02.00 McPeek duo works at Churchill

Mylute
T. Amoss 4/27 Churchill 4f 50.60 Napravnik works Mylute

Normandy Invasion
C. Brown 4/27 Churchill 5f 58.89 Normandy Invasion looks sharp

Overanalyze
T. Pletcher 4/27 Churchill 4f 46.90 Pletcher horses work

Palace Malice
T. Pletcher 4/27 Churchill 4f 47.10 Pletcher duo works in company

Revolutionary
T. Pletcher 4/27 Churchill 4f 48.11 Strong work for Revolutionary

Falling Sky
J. Terranova 4/26 Churchill 6f 1:13.49 Falling Sky turns in final prep

Golden Soul
D. Stewart 4/26 Churchill 5f 1:00.74 Golden Soul on the outside looking in

Vyjack
R. Rodriguez 4/26 Churchill 5f 1:00.36 Vyjack finishes under urging

Goldencents
D. O'Neill 4/25 Santa Anita 6f 1:16.20 Goldencents puts in final work

Itsmyluckyday
E. Plesa 4/25 Calder 4f 53.00 Slow work for Itsmyluckyday

Code West
B. Baffert 4/22 Churchill 5f 1:01.20 Code West's work more impressive than final time

Oxbow
D. Lukas 4/21 Churchill 5f 1:01.00 Oxbow has strong five-furlong breeze

Mylute
T. Amoss 4/21 Churchill 4f 47.80 Napravnik works Mylute

Normandy Invasion
C. Brown 4/21 Churchill 4f 48.12 Normandy Invasion prepares for Derby

Orb
S. McGaughey III 4/21 Payson Park 5f 1:02.20 Orb works before shipping to Churchill

Revolutionary
T. Pletcher 4/21 Churchill 4f 48.73 Revolutionary works at Churchill

Verrazano
T. Pletcher 4/21 Churchill 5f 59.95 Derby favorite arrives at Churchill

Will Take Charge
D. Lukas 4/21 Churchill 1 mile 1:41.75 Will Take Charge goes a mile

Vyjack
R. Rodriguez 4/19 Fair Hill 4f 51.64 Vyjack works at Fair Hill

Itsmyluckyday
E. Plesa 4/18 Calder 8f 1:43.10 Itsmyluckday has final tune-up

Goldencents
D. O'Neill 4/18 Santa Anita 4f 48.40 Goldencents learns to relax

[StarDust Bum]

My Derby Picks:

WPS- NORMADY INVASION

EXACTA BOX - 3, 5, / 3,5 6,10,19

TRIFECTA BOX - 3, 5, / 3,5 6,10,19/3,5 6,10,19