Friday's Trends and Indexes - 4/19 (NBA, NHL, MLB, Misc.)

[Udog]

NBA

Saturday, April 20

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NBA Eastern Conference playoff preview: Round 1
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The Eastern Conference playoffs are a complicated sandwich of sorts. On top you have the Miami Heat and on the bottom the Milwaukee Bucks. But in between is one of the tightest and most competitive groups in years.

Teams seeded No. 2 through No. 7 have just as much of a chance to make the conference finals as the clubs ranked above or below them. The Knicks, Pacers, Nets, Bulls, Hawks and Celtics are all capable of beating each other on any given night. That parity should open up value in the series prices and Eastern Conference futures market.

No. 1 Miami Heat vs. No. 8 Milwaukee Bucks

Season series: Heat won 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS, 1-3 O/U

Series prices: Miami -6,000, Milwaukee +4,000

Why bet Miami: Why not? The Heat are hands down the class of the NBA and have been waiting for this moment since hoisting last year’s Larry O’Brien Trophy. Miami continued to build on its NBA-best record despite resting LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh over the final weeks of the schedule, and kept covering thanks to a deep and experienced bench.

Why bet the Bucks: Milwaukee has known its first-round opponent for some time now and has had plenty of tape to hammer out a game plan for the Heat. In their one win over Miami, the Bucks were able to force 22 turnovers. They rank second in the NBA in forcing turnovers (16.1) while the Heat coughed the ball up 14 times a night – fourth most in the league.

No. 2 New York Knicks vs. No. 7 Boston Celtics

Season series: Knicks won 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS, 1-3 O/U

Series prices: New York -400, Boston +300

Why bet the Knicks: The Celtics were one of the few Eastern Conference playoff teams the Knicks beat up on, with N.Y. going 3-1 SU and ATS. New York defeated Boston by an average of more than 13 points in its three wins over the Celtics. The Knicks are also expected to have Tyson Chandler and Kenyon Martin back for the playoffs.

Why bet the Celtics: Boston has used a platoon of athletic guards – Avery Bradley, Courtney Lee and Jordan Crawford – to replace Rajon Rondo, giving the Celtics scoring depth off the bench. Boston also heads into the postseason with a heavy heart following the bombings at the Boston Marathon. The Celtics could step up as inspiration for a city in need of some good news.

No. 3 Indiana Pacers vs. No. 6 Atlanta Hawks

Season series: Split 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS, 3-1 O/U

Series prices: Indiana -600, Atlanta +400

Why bet the Pacers: Indiana earned the No. 3 seed in the East despite having its star forward Danny Granger for just five games all season. The Pacers are a tough out at home, where they went 30-10 SU (22-18 ATS). They rebound well and play tight defense – two key components for any successful postseason run.

Why bet the Hawks: Indiana limped into the postseason with just one win in its final six games. The Hawks, who are a tough road team - 23-18 ATS - could steal a game or two in Indianapolis. The teams split their four games SU and ATS this year but Atlanta has been the better wager, going 10-4 ATS in their last 14 head-to-heads.

No. 4 Brooklyn Nets vs. No. 5 Chicago Bulls

Season series: Bulls won 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS, 2-2 O/U

Series prices: Brooklyn -165, Chicago +145

Why bet the Nets: Brooklyn is peaking at the right time and a lot of that is due to Deron Williams. After playing much of the season injured, Williams is feeling good and was filling it up down the home stretch. The Nets were stellar in tight games this season, boasting a 9-4 SU record in games decided by three points or less and were 5-0 in overtime affairs.

Why bet the Bulls: Chicago has played its best ball against Eastern Conference playoff teams. The Bulls were 12-7 SU and 14-5 ATS versus teams seeded No. 2 through No. 7. The case isn’t completely closed on Derrick Rose’s possible return, but Chicago has managed to get along without him. The grimy Bulls are more than comfortable playing at the Nets’ slow-motion pace.


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[Udog]

NBA

Saturday, April 20

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NBA Western Conference playoff preview: Round 1
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It was a wild ride in the Western Conference and the fun won’t end with the regular season. Oklahoma City edged out San Antonio for the top seed while the L.A. Lakers, expected to run the table in the conference, squeaked into the No. 7 spot on the final night of the season.

The L.A. Clippers, Denver and Memphis have all looked like title contenders at times this year and Golden State and Houston are as dangerous as any team with their high-powered offenses. Needless to say, there are more surprises in store for the West during the postseason.

No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. No. 8 Houston Rockets

Season series: Thunder won 2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, 3-0 O/U

Series prices: Oklahoma City -2,000, Houston +1,200

Why bet the Thunder: Oklahoma City lost just seven games at home and went 27-14 ATS as a host this season. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook are a handful for Houston’s porous defense and combined to average just under 50 points in the three games with the Rockets. Houston’s up-and-down game leads to a league-high 16.4 turnovers a game.

Why bet the Rockets: Houston can explode offensively and finished second in the NBA with 106 points per game. The Thunder have struggled in close games, going just 3-6 SU in contests decided by three points or less. And don’t forget about former OKC guard James Harden, who averaged more than 29 points in the three games versus his former club, including a 46-point performance in their last meeting.

No. 2 San Antonio Spurs vs. No. 7 Los Angeles Lakers

Season series: Spurs won 2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS, 0-3 O/U

Series prices: San Antonio -1,600, Los Angeles +1,000

Why bet the Spurs: San Antonio lost only six games at home all season while L.A. was terrible on the road, going 16-25 SU and 15-25-1 ATS. Spurs PG Tony Parker is going to be a handful for the Lakers’ unathletic duo of Steven Blake and Steve Nash, who is less than healthy. San Antonio shoots better than 79 percent from the foul line, L.A. shoots an NBA-worst 69.2 percent. No Kobe. Who makes the tough shots?

Why bet the Lakers: Pau Gasol and Dwight Howard is the best frontcourt tandem in the league and should push the Spurs around under the basket. Los Angeles was the second-best rebounding team in the NBA while San Antonio finished second last on the glass in the West. Lakers get Games 3, 4 and 6 at Staples Center, where they have lost just once since the All-Star break (13-1 SU, 7-6-1 ATS).

No. 3 Denver Nuggets vs. No. 6 Golden State Warriors

Season series: Nuggets won 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS, 3-1 O/U

Series prices: Denver -600, Golden State +400

Why bet the Nuggets: Denver was the best home team in the NBA, going 38-3 SU and 28-13 ATS inside the thin air of the Pepsi Center. The Nuggets dominate the boards, ranking tops in the league in rebounding, especially on the offensive glass. Denver is tough to game plan for with seven active players averaging nine or more points. The Nuggets rolled into the postseason, losing only two of their final 10 games.

Why bet the Warriors: Golden State can bust a game wide open with its 3-point threats, topping the NBA from distance at 40.3 percent. Stephen Curry has been insane since his All-Star snub, averaging 26 points since the break. Andrew Bogut is getting back into shape and could be a problem for Denver down low, especially if Kenneth Faried continues to miss time.

No. 4 Los Angeles Clippers vs. No. 5 Memphis Grizzlies

Season series: Clippers won 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS, 1-3 O/U

Series prices: Los Angeles -185, Memphis +145

Why bet the Clippers: Los Angeles brings momentum into the postseason, having won seven straight to end the year (5-2 ATS). The Clippers have the mental edge over Memphis, having won the season series and eliminated the Grizzlies in last year’s playoffs. L.A.’s athletic frontcourt of Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan made life tough for Memphis leading scorer Zach Randolph last spring. The Clips thrive on turnovers, leading the league in steals and forcing opponents to cough the ball up 16.1 times per game.

Why bet the Grizzlies: Memphis’ slowed-down pace could keep the Clippers’ fastbreak in check and limit turnovers. The Grizzlies were the best team in the West at limiting turnovers, coughing the ball up just 14 times a game. Memphis has excelled in tight games, going 4-1 in overtime and 6-4 in games decided by three points or less. The Clippers were 0-2 in OT and just 3-5 in games decided by three or less.


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[Udog]

NBA

Saturday, April 20

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NBA betting review: Best and worst wagers of the season
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The 2012-13 NBA regular season has come to a close, so it’s time to review the best and worst bets in the Association prior to the playoffs.

Best ATS

Overall: Oklahoma City Thunder (49-31-2 ATS) – The Thunder had massive expectations heading into the 2012-13 campaign and they sure didn’t disappoint bettors.

Home: Denver Nuggets (28-13 ATS) – Bettors cashed on the Nuggets all season long, especially at home where they had an astounding 38-3 straight-up record.

Road: Dallas Mavericks (27-14 ATS) – The Mavericks aren’t playoff bound, but bettors loved their performances away from Dallas this year.

Worst ATS

Overall: Charlotte Bobcats (31-50-1 ATS) – The Bobcats struggled to win 21 games and bettors shouldn’t be surprised by their awful ATS record. Better luck next year.

Home: Chicago Bulls (13-28 ATS) – The Bulls were a fade all year long at the United Center, but were 23-18 ATS on the road.

Road: Charlotte Bobcats (14-26-1 ATS) – The Bobcats were seemingly double-digit dogs in every road game, but they still couldn’t cover the points.

Best over

Overall: Sacramento Kings (48-32-2 over/under) – The Kings allowed 105.1 points per game, which made them an awesome over play.

Home: Sacramento Kings (26-13-2 O/U) – The Kings averaged 95.9 points per game on the road this season, but put up 104.6 per contest at the friendly confines of Sleep Train Arena.

Road: Denver Nuggets (26-14-1 O/U) - The Nuggets averaged 103.9 points per game on the road and gave up 104.4 - the perfect recipe for an over play.

Best under

Overall: Memphis Grizzlies (31-50-1 over/under) – Memphis was the only team in the league not to surrender more than 90 points per game (89.3).

Home: Memphis Grizzlies (14-27 O/U) – The Griz held opponents to only 87 points per game at home.

Road: Washington Wizards (12-29 O/U) – The Wiz put up almost 98 points per game at home but went cold away from the Verizon Center, averaging 88.6 points.


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[Udog]

NBA

Saturday, April 20

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NBA season win totals: Lakers fall 16 wins shy
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The Los Angeles Lakers didn't live up to their high expectations in the regular season, which is why the Lake Show is the biggest underachiever with the 2012-13 NBA win total props finishing 16 games below its win total line, according to BetOnline.com.

The Houston Rockets weren't expected to be in the playoffs when the props were released, but when they acquired James Harden from Oklahoma City three days before the season began, the original total of 31 was bound to go over. The Rockets' +14 differential finishes as the biggest gain in the league.

Teams went a combined 13-14-3 over/under on season win totals. The total fell between one and two games of the projected marks for seven different teams.

Three teams that overachieved:
Houston +14 (31 win total prop, 45 wins), Golden State +12 (35, 47), New York +8 (46, 54)

Three teams that underachieved:
LA Lakers -16 (61, 45), Philadelphia -15 (49, 34), Boston -10 (51, 41)

Three pushes:
Utah 43, Charlotte 21, Oklahoma City 60

Total earnings if a $100 bettor went 27-0-3: $2,352.07


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[Udog]

NBA

Saturday, April 20

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NBA opening round betting strategies
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With help from our trusted well-oiled database, let’s examine four time-tested proven theories that have lined our pocket during the opening round of the NBA playoffs.

All results are since 1991 unless noted otherwise.

No. 8 Seeds Are Behind The 8-Ball

For the most part, No. 8 seeds in the NBA playoffs are teams that likely scratched and clawed their way into the postseason. Not good enough to be seriously considered threats against top-seeded opponents but just barely better than the dregs of the league.

Rest assured, their life expectancy is not long at all, as they’ve lost over 70 percent of the time (45-114) in games against No. 1 seeds since 1996. In fact, only the 1996 New York Knicks, the 2007 Golden State Warriors and last year’s 2012 Philadelphia 76ers were good enough to pull the rug on top-seeded foes and advance to the second round of the playoffs

And you can virtually write them off in games against No. 1 seeds that are off back-to-back SU and ATS wins. These guys scratch out of the match with alarming regularity, going 3-23 SU and 7-19 ATS, including 1-13 SU and 2-12 ATS whenever the 8-ballers are off a loss of 14 or more points in their last game.

Upset Losers Are Winners

No, it’s not an oxymoron. Instead, it’s a powerful handicapping edge. It occurs whenever a team was upset as a favorite in an opening round game and is at home in the game immediately thereafter.

That’s confirmed by the fact that they are 56-35-4 ATS, a rock solid number. If they were upset at home in this round and return home they improve to 52-14 SU and 39-24-3 ATS, including 24-1 SU and 18-6-1 ATS when squaring off against a No. 6 or lower seed.

Don’t be afraid of these chalkbusters. That’s because they don’t lose their composure. Instead they almost always elect to dig deep and respond with aplomb in games after being embarrassed.

Double-Digit Dogma

Surprisingly, in the right role, double-digit underdogs do well in opening round contests, especially when playing off a playoff loss. These overweight puppies are 28-16-2 ATS in this role, including 17-8-1 ATS versus a non-division foe.

And if these same guys are involved in a game with the over/under set at 193 or higher they zoom to 15-3 ATS.

Granted, these dogs are not exactly pedigree puppies but the fact of the matter is they tend to come up big against disinterested favorites not capable of chopping heavy lumber.

And Down Goes Frazier

The psyche of teams that are not playing well comes immediately to the surface during the opening round of the NBA playoffs. That’s evidenced by the fact teams riding a three game-exact loss skein are wobbly and often one punch away from being counted out.

With glass-like jaws, these swirling teams are just 6-30 SU and 11-25 ATS away from home this round, including 1-10 SU and 2-9 ATS in lid-lifters.

Worst of all, road dogs of more than six points on a three game exact losing skid are 3-23 SU and 7-19 ATS on their way to the canvas.

Golden Trend

The Golden State Warriors are 12-1-1 ATS as dogs or favorites of less than three points in the first round of the playoffs, including 8-0 ATS when taking eight or less points.

Enjoy the opening round of the 2013 NBA playoffs.


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[Udog]

NBA
Dunkel

Memphis at LA Clippers
The Clippers look to open up the playoff series and take advantage of a Memphis team that is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. LA is the pick (-5) according to Dunkel, which has the Clippers favored by 7. Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (-5). Here are all of Saturday's picks.

SATURDAY, APRIL 20

Game 701-702: Boston at New York (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 117.623; New York 121.749
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 4; 193
Vegas Line & Total: New York by 6 1/2; 190 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+6 1/2); Over

Game 703-704: Golden State at Denver (5:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 118.735; Denver 131.308
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 12 1/2; 207
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 7 1/2; 210 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-7 1/2); Under

Game 705-706: Chicago at Brooklyn (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 115.395; Brooklyn 123.314
Dunkel Line & Total: Brooklyn by 8; 178
Vegas Line & Total: Brooklyn by 4 1/2; 182 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Brooklyn (-4 1/2); Under

Game 707-708: Memphis at LA Clippers (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 121.842; LA Clippers 128.811
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 7; 184
Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 5; 179
Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (-5); Over

[Udog]

Online sportsbook posts Week 1 NFL pointspreads

The 2013 NFL schedule was released Thursday night and oddsmakers didn’t waste any time posting odds for Week 1 of the season. BetOnline.com posted their spreads for the opening week matchups Friday morning:

Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos (-7.5)

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (+5)

Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5)

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-2)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Jets (-2.5)

Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars (Pick)

Cincinnati Bengals at Chicago Bears (-4)

Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns (+1.5)

Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (+3.5)

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-2.5)

Oakland Raiders at Indianapolis Colts (-7)

Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams (-4)

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (-4.5)

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-3)

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins (-6.5)

Houston Texans at San Diego Chargers (+2.5)

[Udog]

Capping the NFL sked: Week-by-week breakdown

September feels like an eternity away, but the NFL schedule is out, and it’s never too early for bettors to begin handicapping the 2013-14 campaign.

Here’s a look at a key matchup for each week of the new schedule:

Week 1: Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos
The Kickoff game will feature the Super Bowl champions on the road due to a scheduling conflict with the Baltimore Orioles.

Week 2: Denver Broncos at New York Giants
Big brother Manning plays little brother Manning for the third time.

Week 3: Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens
Ed Reed will return to Baltimore as a Texan after finally capping off his Hall of Fame career with a Super Bowl ring.

Week 4: New England Patriots at Atlanta Falcons
These two high-powered offenses square off for the first time since 2005.

Week 5: Houston Texans at San Francisco 49ers
Houston beat the 49ers in the last meeting in 2009, 24-21.

Week 6: Green Bay Packers at Baltimore Ravens
Green Bay beat the Ravens in the last meeting 27-14 in 2009 at Lambeau.

Week 7: Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts
The greatest Colt of all time returns to Indianapolis as a Bronco to see his successor, Andrew Luck, in action.

Week 8: Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
In Week 17 last season, Adrian Peterson finished eight yards short of Eric Dickerson's all-time single season rushing record. And the Vikings won to clinch a playoff berth and a rematch with the Packers.

Week 9: Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots
The teams have split the past four meetings, dating back to 2007.

Week 10: Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons
A rematch of the classic NFC Divisional playoff game when Matt Ryan led the Falcons down the field for Matt Bryant's game-winning field goal.

Week 11: San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints
The Saints were 5-5 last season and looking like a playoff contender before running into Colin Kaepernick.

Week 12: Denver Broncos at New England Patriots
Manning Brady XV.

Week 13: Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens
Will the best rivalry in the NFL have the same juice without Ray Lewis and James Harrison?

Week 14: Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers
With both teams beefing up in the offseason -- Anquan Boldin to San Fran, Percy Harvin to the Pacific Northwest -- and the hate-on Jim Harbaugh and Pete Carroll have had since their days coaching in the Pac-10, this could turn into the new Ravens-Steelers.

Week 15: Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts
These teams split the season series last season, with the home team prevailing and covering at home.

Week 16: Pittsburgh Steelers at Green Bay Packers
Rematch of Super Bowl XLV where the Packers brought the Lombardi back home.

Week 17: Washington Redskins at New York Giants
While the NFC East champion Redskins split the series against the Giants last year, they went 2-0 ATS.

[Udog]

NHL
Short Sheet

Friday, April 19

Pittsburgh at Boston, 7:05 ET NHL
Pittsburgh: 13-2 SU after having won 12 or more of their last 15
Boston: 31-48 SU in home games revenging 2 consecutive losses to opponent as a favorite

NY Rangers at Buffalo, 7:05 ET
NY Rangers: 15-6 SU after playing a home game
Buffalo: 21-27 SU in home games off a win or tie in their previous game

Dallas at St. Louis, 8:05 ET
Dallas: 4-18 SU when playing on back-to-back days
St. Louis: 17-5 SU after winning their previous game in overtime

Nashville at Chicago, 8:35 ET NBCSN
Nashville: 0-6 SU after playing 4 consecutive home games
Chicago: 20-5 SU after a 2 game unbeaten streak

Anaheim at Calgary, 9:05 ET
Anaheim: 7-2 SU in a road game where where the total is 5.5
Calgary: 5-13 SU after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread

Edmonton at Colorado, 9:05 ET
Edmonton: 31-21 SU off 2 consecutive losses against division rivals
Colorado: 4-15 SU after having lost 2 of their last 3 games

[Udog]

MLB
Short Sheet

Friday, April 19

National League

Atlanta at Pittsburgh, 7:05 ET MLB
Hudson: Atlanta 20-7 SU when playing on Friday
Rodriguez: Pittsburgh 9-0 OVER after a game where they had 6 or more extra base hits

St. Louis at Philadelphia, 7:05 ET
Garcia: St Louis 80-59 SU in road games with an on base percentage of .285 or worse over their last 5 games
Halladay: Philadelphia 14-25 SU after a loss by 2 runs or less

Miami at Cincinnati, 7:10 ET
Slowey: 21-40 SU after having lost 3 of their last 4
Latos: 20-3 SU as a favorite of -150 or more

Washington at NY Mets, 7:10 ET
Strasburg: Washington 72-45 SU in night games
Harvey: NY Mets 2-9 SU in home games after 2 or more consecutive road games

Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee, 8:10 ET
Samardzija: CHI Cubs 4-18 SU as a road underdog of +100 to +125
Estrada: 50-16 SU in home games after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6

Arizona at Colorado, 8:40 ET
Kennedy: 16-9 TSR as an underdog of +100 or higher
Chacin: 15-27 SU at home when the money line is +125 to -125

San Diego at San Francisco, 10:15 ET
Volquez: San Diego 17-36 SU when playing on Friday
Bumgarner: San Francisco 26-11 SU after scoring 3 runs or less 2 straight games


American League

NY Yankees at Toronto, 7:05 ET
Pettitte: NY Yankees 22-7 SU when playing on Friday
Morrow: Toronto 30-51 SU after allowing 2 runs or less

Kansas City at Boston, 7:10 ET MLB
Shields: Kansas City 18-9 SU after scoring 4 runs or less 5 straight games
Buchholz: Boston 3-10 SU in home games when playing on Friday

Oakland at Tampa Bay, 7:10 ET
Anderson: Oakland 10-1 SU after a win
Cobb: Tampa Bay 6-17 SU after a loss by 4 runs or more

Seattle at Texas, 8:05 ET
Saunders: Seattle 16-7 SU after scoring and allowing 3 runs or less last 2 games
Darvish: Texas 27-33 SU after 2 straight games where they committed no errors

Cleveland at Houston, 8:10 ET
Myers: Cleveland 17-6 OVER in road games after 3 or more consecutive home games
Harrell: Houston 19-55 SU after 2 or more consecutive road games

Minnesota at Chicago White Sox, 8:10 ET
Worley: Minnesota 41-23 OVER after a game where the bullpen gave up no runs
Peavy: CHI White Sox 16-29 SU in home games after 2 or more consecutive unders

Detroit at LA Angels, 10:05 ET
Sanchez: Detroit 9-19 SU on the road with a money line of -100 to -125
Hanson: 8-1 TSR as an underdog of +100 or higher


InterLeague

LA Dodgers at Baltimore, 7:05 ET MLB
Ryu: LA Dodgers 7-14 SU off a loss to a division rival as a home favorite
Hammel: 13-5 SU in the first half of the season