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National League East betting preview
Welcome to the National League East, a.k.a. Downtown Abby, where three teams (Nationals, Braves, Phillies) will live upstairs, and the other two (Mets, Marlins) occupy the lower quarters.
WASHINGTON NATIONALS
World Series futures: 7/1
Season win total: 92.5
Division odds: 10/11
Washington has added a few key ingredients to the mix that produced 98 wins last season. Denard Span gives the Nats the legit leadoff hitter they’ve been seeking for years, and Rafael Soriano could be the lights-out closer that’s been missing. Bryce Harper may move to the three-hole in a lineup that should score plenty. But the strength of the team is its starting pitching. Stephen Strasburg will no longer be wearing a 160-inning choke chain, and Dan Haren is an upgrade in the back of a rotation that also includes Gio Gonzalez and Jordan Zimmerman.
ATLANTA BRAVES
World Series futures: 14/1
Season win total: 87
Division odds: 8/5
Atlanta is now flush with Uptons (BJ and Justin) in the outfield and appears to have enough pitching depth to hang with Washington at the top of the division, especially if Kris Medlen and Mike Minor come close to replicating their 2012 second-half success. Jason Heyward joins the Uptons in giving Atlanta a better-than-decent offensive outfield, but will they be a huge upgrade from the departed Martin Prado and Michael Bourn? Andrelton Simmons looks like the real deal at SS, but he’s still a kid.
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
World Series futures: 20/1
Season win total: 84
Division odds: 7/2
Philadelphia had a boatload of injuries last season (Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Roy Halladay) and it certainly impacted the bottom line (81-81, 17 games behind the Nats). But do the Phillies have to bitch about it all the time? The Phillies will have pretty much the same cast this season, with Michael Young taking over at 3B. Three of the five expected starters (Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee and Nats castoff John Lannan) are lefties, and if the staff has a good season, wacko closer Jonathan Papelbon will have a ton of saves.
NEW YORK METS
World Series futures: 100/1
Season win total: 74.5
Division odds: 25/1
Cy Young Award winner R.A. Dickey was traded, leaving David Wright to turn chicken droppings into chicken salad. It won’t be easy, as the Mets don’t look appreciably better than last year’s 74-win team. Johan Santana will anchor the staff, but with his aching arm there are no guarantees he can get to 25 starts. Frank Francisco had 19 saves last season, but with this weak lineup there won’t be a lot of closing opportunities.
MIAMI MARLINS
World Series futures: 300/1
Season win total: 63.5
Division odds: 100/1
Salary dumps never go over well with the fan base, especially right after public funds are used to help build a new stadium. Clueless owner Jeffrey Loria, who gutted the Expos like a bluefish and forced the team to move to D.C., is in retrench mode after sending the core his roster (Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, Josh Johnson, John Buck and Emilio Bonifacio) to the Blue Jays for some kids. Pretty much all that’s left from an offense that was 29th in the league last year is slugger Giancarlo Stanton, and even if Stanton hits 120 homers it won’t come close to making up for a no-name pitching staff that will give up a lot of runs.
NL Central Division preview: No more Astros to pick on
The new-look National League Central Division never seems to get the respect it deserves, but that could change in 2013.
The St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds are the frontrunners for the NL Central crown, but don't discount the Milwaukee Brewers and Pittsburgh Pirates. It could be another long season for the Chicago Cubs as they continue their rebuilding process.
NL Central teams no longer have the Houston Astros to beat up on throughout the course of the season, which should increase the competition level between the other five clubs.
Chicago Cubs (2012: 61-101 – 25.68 units, 74-82-6 over/under)
Division odds: 20/1
Season win total: 72.5
Why bet the Cubs: Starlin Castro is an up and coming talent with Anthony Rizzo backing him in the lineup. Darwin Barney is a capable No. 2 hitter and is a gold glove fielder. Jeff Samardzija has talent along with Matt Garza if both can stay healthy. Edwin Jackson is a decent No. 3 starting pitcher with veteran experience.
Why not bet the Cubs: Fourteen different pitchers had a 5.00 ERA or worse last year. Only one regular offensive player batted .300 or better and that was Reed Johnson who is no longer with the club. Shortstop Starlin Castro had 27 errors which is a huge issue at such an important defensive position. Carlos Marmol is inconsistent as a closer and will cost Chicago some games.
Season win total pick: Under 72.5
Cincinnati Reds (2012: 97-65 - +18.73 units, 60-89-13 over/under)
Division odds: 10/17
Season win total: 91
Why bet the Reds: Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips lead a solid lineup from top to bottom that should improve with the addition of Shin-Soo Choo. Ryan Ludwick has hit over .300 in his last 80 games and seems to fit nicely into a group that needed a little more power. The rotation features plenty of power arms in Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, and Homer Bailey. This pitching staff gets even more powerful when considering the relief corps. Aroldis Chapman, Sean Marshall and Jose Arredondo are all solid options late in games.
Why not bet the Reds: The bench isn't very deep, so injuries to this lineup will be problematic. Votto and Phillips must remain healthy for this offense to be potent.
Season win total pick: Over 91
Milwaukee Brewers (2012: 83-79 - -9.18 units, 89-68-5 over/under)
Division odds: 15/2
Season win total: 81
Why bet the Brewers: Ryan Braun is the only player in baseball with 100+ runs and 100+ RBI in each of the last four seasons. Jean Segura could stabilize the shortstop position after hitting .329 in his last 22 games. Yovani Gallardo is an underrated ace with at least 200+ strikeouts in four straight years. The rest of the rotation is filled with potential in Mike Fiers, Wily Peralta, and Marco Estrada.
Why not bet the Brewers: John Axford struggled as the team's closer with a 5-8 record with a 4.67 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 75 appearances last year. Chris Narveson and Estrada are injury- prone. The bench is suspect as Mat Gamel has not lived up to his potential. Aramis Ramirez, Corey Hart, and Rickie Weeks are inconsistent. Weeks and Ramirez both struggled at the beginning of the season last year.
Season win total pick: Under 81
Pittsburgh Pirates (2012: 79-83 - -2.58 units, 69-84-9 over/under)
Division odds: 12/1
Season win total: 77
Why bet the Pirates: This young lineup should continue to improve and get better each season. Andrew McCutchen is a duel offensive threat with his speed and power. Three Pirates hit at least 25 home runs last seasons with Pedro Alvarez and Garrett Jones joining McCutchen. The team ERA was under 4.00 for the first time since 1998. They acquired Wandy Rodriguez in the middle of last season and he brings experience to the starting rotation.
Why not bet the Pirates: The Pirates finished just 16-36 in their last 52 games of the 2012 season. The back end of the pitching rotation is a problem. James McDonald could be the ace of the staff, but he also pitched like a rookie at times last season. The bullpen lost Joel Hanrahan who was a stabilizing force and is now depending upon Mark Melancon and Jason Grilli to lock things down.
Season win total pick: Over 77
St. Louis Cardinals (2012: 88-74 - -4.23 units, 78-79-5 over/under)
Division odds: 9/4
Season win total: 86
Why bet the Cardinals: A solid offensive lineup returns. Allen Craig ranked seventh in the NL in batting average and slugging. Matt Holliday had a team-high 102 RBIs with Jon Jay hitting over .300 as a leadoff hitter. The bench got stronger with the addition of utility man Ty Wigginton. Adam Wainwright will be back for a full season after elbow surgery last year and is joined by Jaime Garcia and Lance Lynn in the pitching rotation. Shelby Miller is waiting in the wings as well.
Why not bet the Cardinals: While there is talent in the starting rotation, there is also some uncertainty. Jaime Garcia was inconsistent away from home with some terrible numbers on the road last year. Lance Lynn's stamina faltered at the end of the season and Jake Westbrook's ERA has been 4.65 or worse in two of the past three years. Offensively, health could become a problem with Holliday, Rafael Furcal, and potentially Carlos Beltran.
Season win total pick: Over 86
National League West preview: Will Dodgers' deep pockets pay off?
The defending World Series champion Giants aren’t the favorites to win the National League West crown. The Dodgers and their bulging pocketbook take top billing but there is plenty of value below them in the NL West. Three out of the division's five clubs turned a profit in 2012.
Arizona Diamondbacks (2012: 81-81 - -11.34 units, 77-77-8 over/under)
Division odds: +750
Season win total: 82.5
Why bet the Diamondbacks: The rotation is back and even better with the addition of Brandon McCarthy. Ian Kennedy, Trevor Cahill, and Wade Miley were solid last year with a combined 94 starts and all three return for the D-backs. They added Martin Prado to a lineup that was in need of some re-tooling. Aaron Hill will enjoy the bigger gaps in a hitter's park after putting up 76 extra-base hits last year. The bullpen is a strength with J.J. Putz pitching well as the closer.
Why not bet the Diamondbacks: The lineup may be weaker with the departure of Justin Upton. The last spot of the pitching rotation is a question mark with Patrick Corbin, Tyler Skaggs and possibly Josh Collmenter fighting for it. Heath Bell struggled with Miami last season and Arizona's bench is not deep, so injuries could become an issue.
Season win total pick: Under 82.5
Colorado Rockies (2012: 64-98 - -19.36 units, 84-73-5 over/under)
Division odds: +2,200
Season win total: 71.5
Why bet the Rockies: The lineup plays well in the thin air and altitude at home, where they are capable of scoring runs. Carlos Gonzalez, Troy Tulowitzki and Todd Helton are back, and if healthy will still be a potent part of this lineup. The team is scrapping the pitch limit for the starters which should help them focus and also take pressure off the bullpen. When healthy, Jhoulys Chacin and Jorge De La Rosa are solid pitchers.
Why not bet the Rockies: Health is a major issue for this team. Helton is a year older and Tulo is always a threat for a trip to the disabled list. Nicasio, De La Rosa, and Chacin were all injured at some point last season. Jeff Francis and Drew Pomeranz round out the rotation and neither were good last year. The bullpen is filled with relative no-names and could struggle this season in new roles.
Season win total pick: Under 71.5
Los Angeles Dodgers (2012: 86-76 – +2.74 units, 71-82-9 over/under)
Division odds: -120
Season win total: 91.5
Why bet the Dodgers: The lineup is fierce with Hanley Ramirez, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, and Adrian Gonzalez. When Carl Crawford is ready, he will add another dimension of speed and contact to the group. The rotation features two of the best pitchers in baseball with Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke at the top. Watch out for Hyun-Jin Ryu who led the Korean Baseball Organization in strikeouts five times. A lot of power arms in the bullpen.
Why not bet the Dodgers: The lineup struggled at times last season. Chad Billingsley and Josh Beckett round out the pitching rotation and both are very inconsistent. Crawford's health will be an issue, along with Kemp and Billingsley. There has been a lot of money spent on this roster which sometimes leads to underperformance.
Season win total pick: Under 91.5
San Diego Padres (2012: 76-86 - +4.48 units, 85-73-4 over/under)
Division odds: +1,800
Season win total: 74.5
Why bet the Padres: The fences are going to be brought in closer at Petco Park, which should benefit this offensive lineup and help the power numbers for Chase Headley, Carlos Quentin and Yonder Alonso. Clayton Richard is a fantastic pitcher at home. The bullpen is still strong with Huston Street and Luke Gregorson.
Why not bet the Padres: The back end of the rotation is weak with Jason Marquis, Eric Stults, and potentially Anthony Bass. The Padres' offensive lineup is still a major question mark, especially with Yasmani Grandal out for the first 50 games of the season. The bench is weak and lacks power.
Season win total pick: Over 74.5
San Francisco Giants (2012: 94-68 - +19.99 units, 86-70-6 over/under)
Division odds: +200
Season win total: 88
Why bet the Giants: Pitching is stellar as usual with Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, and Ryan Vogelsong anchoring the starting rotation. Sergio Romo and Javier Lopez are fantastic in the bullpen as well. The offensive lineup will have a full season of Hunter Pence and Buster Posey, which should lead to better results.
Why not bet the Giants: How will Tim Lincecum be this season? He was weak as a starter, but was effective out of the bullpen. The lineup struggled scoring runs at times last year. The team also has the pressure of being the defending World Series champions. How will they handle the expectations and will there be a letdown?
Season win total pick: Over 88
Welcome to the National League East, a.k.a. Downtown Abby, where three teams (Nationals, Braves, Phillies) will live upstairs, and the other two (Mets, Marlins) occupy the lower quarters.
WASHINGTON NATIONALS
World Series futures: 7/1
Season win total: 92.5
Division odds: 10/11
Washington has added a few key ingredients to the mix that produced 98 wins last season. Denard Span gives the Nats the legit leadoff hitter they’ve been seeking for years, and Rafael Soriano could be the lights-out closer that’s been missing. Bryce Harper may move to the three-hole in a lineup that should score plenty. But the strength of the team is its starting pitching. Stephen Strasburg will no longer be wearing a 160-inning choke chain, and Dan Haren is an upgrade in the back of a rotation that also includes Gio Gonzalez and Jordan Zimmerman.
ATLANTA BRAVES
World Series futures: 14/1
Season win total: 87
Division odds: 8/5
Atlanta is now flush with Uptons (BJ and Justin) in the outfield and appears to have enough pitching depth to hang with Washington at the top of the division, especially if Kris Medlen and Mike Minor come close to replicating their 2012 second-half success. Jason Heyward joins the Uptons in giving Atlanta a better-than-decent offensive outfield, but will they be a huge upgrade from the departed Martin Prado and Michael Bourn? Andrelton Simmons looks like the real deal at SS, but he’s still a kid.
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
World Series futures: 20/1
Season win total: 84
Division odds: 7/2
Philadelphia had a boatload of injuries last season (Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Roy Halladay) and it certainly impacted the bottom line (81-81, 17 games behind the Nats). But do the Phillies have to bitch about it all the time? The Phillies will have pretty much the same cast this season, with Michael Young taking over at 3B. Three of the five expected starters (Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee and Nats castoff John Lannan) are lefties, and if the staff has a good season, wacko closer Jonathan Papelbon will have a ton of saves.
NEW YORK METS
World Series futures: 100/1
Season win total: 74.5
Division odds: 25/1
Cy Young Award winner R.A. Dickey was traded, leaving David Wright to turn chicken droppings into chicken salad. It won’t be easy, as the Mets don’t look appreciably better than last year’s 74-win team. Johan Santana will anchor the staff, but with his aching arm there are no guarantees he can get to 25 starts. Frank Francisco had 19 saves last season, but with this weak lineup there won’t be a lot of closing opportunities.
MIAMI MARLINS
World Series futures: 300/1
Season win total: 63.5
Division odds: 100/1
Salary dumps never go over well with the fan base, especially right after public funds are used to help build a new stadium. Clueless owner Jeffrey Loria, who gutted the Expos like a bluefish and forced the team to move to D.C., is in retrench mode after sending the core his roster (Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, Josh Johnson, John Buck and Emilio Bonifacio) to the Blue Jays for some kids. Pretty much all that’s left from an offense that was 29th in the league last year is slugger Giancarlo Stanton, and even if Stanton hits 120 homers it won’t come close to making up for a no-name pitching staff that will give up a lot of runs.
NL Central Division preview: No more Astros to pick on
The new-look National League Central Division never seems to get the respect it deserves, but that could change in 2013.
The St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds are the frontrunners for the NL Central crown, but don't discount the Milwaukee Brewers and Pittsburgh Pirates. It could be another long season for the Chicago Cubs as they continue their rebuilding process.
NL Central teams no longer have the Houston Astros to beat up on throughout the course of the season, which should increase the competition level between the other five clubs.
Chicago Cubs (2012: 61-101 – 25.68 units, 74-82-6 over/under)
Division odds: 20/1
Season win total: 72.5
Why bet the Cubs: Starlin Castro is an up and coming talent with Anthony Rizzo backing him in the lineup. Darwin Barney is a capable No. 2 hitter and is a gold glove fielder. Jeff Samardzija has talent along with Matt Garza if both can stay healthy. Edwin Jackson is a decent No. 3 starting pitcher with veteran experience.
Why not bet the Cubs: Fourteen different pitchers had a 5.00 ERA or worse last year. Only one regular offensive player batted .300 or better and that was Reed Johnson who is no longer with the club. Shortstop Starlin Castro had 27 errors which is a huge issue at such an important defensive position. Carlos Marmol is inconsistent as a closer and will cost Chicago some games.
Season win total pick: Under 72.5
Cincinnati Reds (2012: 97-65 - +18.73 units, 60-89-13 over/under)
Division odds: 10/17
Season win total: 91
Why bet the Reds: Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips lead a solid lineup from top to bottom that should improve with the addition of Shin-Soo Choo. Ryan Ludwick has hit over .300 in his last 80 games and seems to fit nicely into a group that needed a little more power. The rotation features plenty of power arms in Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, and Homer Bailey. This pitching staff gets even more powerful when considering the relief corps. Aroldis Chapman, Sean Marshall and Jose Arredondo are all solid options late in games.
Why not bet the Reds: The bench isn't very deep, so injuries to this lineup will be problematic. Votto and Phillips must remain healthy for this offense to be potent.
Season win total pick: Over 91
Milwaukee Brewers (2012: 83-79 - -9.18 units, 89-68-5 over/under)
Division odds: 15/2
Season win total: 81
Why bet the Brewers: Ryan Braun is the only player in baseball with 100+ runs and 100+ RBI in each of the last four seasons. Jean Segura could stabilize the shortstop position after hitting .329 in his last 22 games. Yovani Gallardo is an underrated ace with at least 200+ strikeouts in four straight years. The rest of the rotation is filled with potential in Mike Fiers, Wily Peralta, and Marco Estrada.
Why not bet the Brewers: John Axford struggled as the team's closer with a 5-8 record with a 4.67 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 75 appearances last year. Chris Narveson and Estrada are injury- prone. The bench is suspect as Mat Gamel has not lived up to his potential. Aramis Ramirez, Corey Hart, and Rickie Weeks are inconsistent. Weeks and Ramirez both struggled at the beginning of the season last year.
Season win total pick: Under 81
Pittsburgh Pirates (2012: 79-83 - -2.58 units, 69-84-9 over/under)
Division odds: 12/1
Season win total: 77
Why bet the Pirates: This young lineup should continue to improve and get better each season. Andrew McCutchen is a duel offensive threat with his speed and power. Three Pirates hit at least 25 home runs last seasons with Pedro Alvarez and Garrett Jones joining McCutchen. The team ERA was under 4.00 for the first time since 1998. They acquired Wandy Rodriguez in the middle of last season and he brings experience to the starting rotation.
Why not bet the Pirates: The Pirates finished just 16-36 in their last 52 games of the 2012 season. The back end of the pitching rotation is a problem. James McDonald could be the ace of the staff, but he also pitched like a rookie at times last season. The bullpen lost Joel Hanrahan who was a stabilizing force and is now depending upon Mark Melancon and Jason Grilli to lock things down.
Season win total pick: Over 77
St. Louis Cardinals (2012: 88-74 - -4.23 units, 78-79-5 over/under)
Division odds: 9/4
Season win total: 86
Why bet the Cardinals: A solid offensive lineup returns. Allen Craig ranked seventh in the NL in batting average and slugging. Matt Holliday had a team-high 102 RBIs with Jon Jay hitting over .300 as a leadoff hitter. The bench got stronger with the addition of utility man Ty Wigginton. Adam Wainwright will be back for a full season after elbow surgery last year and is joined by Jaime Garcia and Lance Lynn in the pitching rotation. Shelby Miller is waiting in the wings as well.
Why not bet the Cardinals: While there is talent in the starting rotation, there is also some uncertainty. Jaime Garcia was inconsistent away from home with some terrible numbers on the road last year. Lance Lynn's stamina faltered at the end of the season and Jake Westbrook's ERA has been 4.65 or worse in two of the past three years. Offensively, health could become a problem with Holliday, Rafael Furcal, and potentially Carlos Beltran.
Season win total pick: Over 86
National League West preview: Will Dodgers' deep pockets pay off?
The defending World Series champion Giants aren’t the favorites to win the National League West crown. The Dodgers and their bulging pocketbook take top billing but there is plenty of value below them in the NL West. Three out of the division's five clubs turned a profit in 2012.
Arizona Diamondbacks (2012: 81-81 - -11.34 units, 77-77-8 over/under)
Division odds: +750
Season win total: 82.5
Why bet the Diamondbacks: The rotation is back and even better with the addition of Brandon McCarthy. Ian Kennedy, Trevor Cahill, and Wade Miley were solid last year with a combined 94 starts and all three return for the D-backs. They added Martin Prado to a lineup that was in need of some re-tooling. Aaron Hill will enjoy the bigger gaps in a hitter's park after putting up 76 extra-base hits last year. The bullpen is a strength with J.J. Putz pitching well as the closer.
Why not bet the Diamondbacks: The lineup may be weaker with the departure of Justin Upton. The last spot of the pitching rotation is a question mark with Patrick Corbin, Tyler Skaggs and possibly Josh Collmenter fighting for it. Heath Bell struggled with Miami last season and Arizona's bench is not deep, so injuries could become an issue.
Season win total pick: Under 82.5
Colorado Rockies (2012: 64-98 - -19.36 units, 84-73-5 over/under)
Division odds: +2,200
Season win total: 71.5
Why bet the Rockies: The lineup plays well in the thin air and altitude at home, where they are capable of scoring runs. Carlos Gonzalez, Troy Tulowitzki and Todd Helton are back, and if healthy will still be a potent part of this lineup. The team is scrapping the pitch limit for the starters which should help them focus and also take pressure off the bullpen. When healthy, Jhoulys Chacin and Jorge De La Rosa are solid pitchers.
Why not bet the Rockies: Health is a major issue for this team. Helton is a year older and Tulo is always a threat for a trip to the disabled list. Nicasio, De La Rosa, and Chacin were all injured at some point last season. Jeff Francis and Drew Pomeranz round out the rotation and neither were good last year. The bullpen is filled with relative no-names and could struggle this season in new roles.
Season win total pick: Under 71.5
Los Angeles Dodgers (2012: 86-76 – +2.74 units, 71-82-9 over/under)
Division odds: -120
Season win total: 91.5
Why bet the Dodgers: The lineup is fierce with Hanley Ramirez, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, and Adrian Gonzalez. When Carl Crawford is ready, he will add another dimension of speed and contact to the group. The rotation features two of the best pitchers in baseball with Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke at the top. Watch out for Hyun-Jin Ryu who led the Korean Baseball Organization in strikeouts five times. A lot of power arms in the bullpen.
Why not bet the Dodgers: The lineup struggled at times last season. Chad Billingsley and Josh Beckett round out the pitching rotation and both are very inconsistent. Crawford's health will be an issue, along with Kemp and Billingsley. There has been a lot of money spent on this roster which sometimes leads to underperformance.
Season win total pick: Under 91.5
San Diego Padres (2012: 76-86 - +4.48 units, 85-73-4 over/under)
Division odds: +1,800
Season win total: 74.5
Why bet the Padres: The fences are going to be brought in closer at Petco Park, which should benefit this offensive lineup and help the power numbers for Chase Headley, Carlos Quentin and Yonder Alonso. Clayton Richard is a fantastic pitcher at home. The bullpen is still strong with Huston Street and Luke Gregorson.
Why not bet the Padres: The back end of the rotation is weak with Jason Marquis, Eric Stults, and potentially Anthony Bass. The Padres' offensive lineup is still a major question mark, especially with Yasmani Grandal out for the first 50 games of the season. The bench is weak and lacks power.
Season win total pick: Over 74.5
San Francisco Giants (2012: 94-68 - +19.99 units, 86-70-6 over/under)
Division odds: +200
Season win total: 88
Why bet the Giants: Pitching is stellar as usual with Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, and Ryan Vogelsong anchoring the starting rotation. Sergio Romo and Javier Lopez are fantastic in the bullpen as well. The offensive lineup will have a full season of Hunter Pence and Buster Posey, which should lead to better results.
Why not bet the Giants: How will Tim Lincecum be this season? He was weak as a starter, but was effective out of the bullpen. The lineup struggled scoring runs at times last year. The team also has the pressure of being the defending World Series champions. How will they handle the expectations and will there be a letdown?
Season win total pick: Over 88
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