MLB 2013: Three Futures Plays

[griswold]

2012 Final Record 23-22 +6.26 units

I ended 2012 baseball with a profit and once again won more than half my dog plays (17-16) and ended the season with a nice score on a 2* World Series bet on the Giants. I have three over/under win plays to start the season and will pop them into my record, win or lose, at the end of the regular season.

1* Red Sox UNDER 83 wins
Seeing as how I'm picking this once great franchise to finish dead last in the AL East, which is very strong this year, I don't see how they can finish over .500

1* Brewers UNDER 79 1/2 wins
They're going to start terribly. The starting pitching is shaky once you get past Gallardo and Lohse and the bullpen could be a train wreck, especially if Axford is as bad as he was last year. They actually start the season with Alex Gonzales, a journeyman shortstop, as their everyday first baseman! There's also a chance of a mid-season suspension of Ryan Braun. Aramis Ramirez had a career year last year and is likely to tail off. Losing Houston to the AL hurts the win totals of all NL Central teams.

1* Yankees UNDER 84 1/2 wins
This number is another case of Yankee reputation inflating the number. Who's even left on this team? There'll be a lot of empty seats behind home plate by late August. And, this Steinbrenner isn't going to spend money on overpaid players in mid-season like his father. The A-Rod and CC contracts continue to hamstring this franchise. Changing of the guard in the Al East this year.

Opinion only:
Cubs UNDER 73
This is an annual opinion. I always think the Cubs will be terrible which means I am almost always right.

[BigWeiner]

Good luck Gris. I played Astros under 59.5.

[wayne1218]

GL gris. The only one I disagree with is the Yankees. I think their pitching (Starters & pen) is pretty good and they always find a way to score runs. I like my chances with a team that has won the Division in something like 15 of the last 17 years and seemingly never ever misses the Playoffs.

I'm not sure they won't spend either. They just took on Vernon Wells and his 20+ million contract without blinking an eye over it. They will do it again in July if they need to. I know the Angels are paying a lot of it but money is one thing to the Yankees. Paper.

[savage1]

As I posted in another thread, I respectfully disagree with you on the Sox and have already bet on them to win more than 82 1/2 games and the O's to win over 79.
ps if Ortiz is not healthy and/or unproductive for most of the season, then of course my bet on the Sox will be in trouble.
That said, imo the Sox are going to surprise a lot of folks this season in the strength of their rebound, and I think most Sox diehards like myself will have a satisfying season even if they don't make the playoffs.
Good luck on the other two bets and especially the one on the Yankees for obvious reasons.

[wayne1218]

ps if Ortiz is not healthy and/or unproductive for most of the season, then of course my bet on the Sox will be in trouble.

LMAO - 8 Months ago he was "Day to Day" with a sore Achilles. He came back and played 1 game and that was it. Fast forward those 8 months to today and the guy still can't even run. Do you really think he is going to wake up any time soon and feel fine? LOL

8 FUCKIN MONTHS SAVAGE AND THE FUCKER STILL CAN'T PLAY. How fuckin stupid were the Sox for paying him a 2 year deal at his age and at those $ knowing he was hurt?

Can you say TRAIN WRECK?!?!

[Sirporkie]

GL Gris

[savage1]

LMAO - 8 Months ago he was "Day to Day" with a sore Achilles. He came back and played 1 game and that was it. Fast forward those 8 months to today and the guy still can't even run. Do you really think he is going to wake up any time soon and feel fine? LOL

8 FUCKIN MONTHS SAVAGE AND THE FUCKER STILL CAN'T PLAY. How fuckin stupid were the Sox for paying him a 2 year deal at his age and at those $ knowing he was hurt?

Can you say TRAIN WRECK?!?!

I agree with you to some extent about Ortiz.
As stated, if he can't contribut in a rspectable, then I am afraid imo 75-80 games max would be more realistic for games won this season.

[xstac2169]

I like Boston to rebound and be competitive but I do not see them as a 90 win team. I just do not think this Boston team has it in them to be honest. I think there are too many question marks with them due to injury concerns.

I really like the Baltimore over 79 wins and played that already. Agree that last year was not a fluke and think they can easily be a .500 ball club this year.

I agree with the analysis on Milwaukee and played that one as well. Outside of Gallardo and Braun (assuming there is no more steroid talk), they really do not have much to speak of. Also, with Lohse signing this late, how long before he really gets it going this year?

I also like the Kansas City over I believe 78.5 wins. I think they have done enough to easily be a .500 team.

[jt4545]

Gooid luck

[griswold]

One of the reasons for my Under on both the Yankees and Red Sox is teams play teams in their own division more times than they play teams in the rest of the league. That's a lot of games against Tampa and Toronto and, therefore, a lot of losses. Baltimore may be decent as well.

The AL itself is strong as ever. Texas and Detroit are still good; KC is improving, the White Sox are OK and the Angeles might win 90 games. Oakland may be good again and some people like Seattle.

In that environment, I just don't see NYY or Bos winning more than half their games.

One other point. If you add up all the over/under total wins, the average is OVER 81! That's because most people like to bet OVERs on their own team. The books have to shade the numbers higher to accomodate this. My own guess is the Yankees win 79 and Boston 76. Milwaukee might be only 74.

The tricky thing about this is that teams can make huge moves in mid-season that totally remake their rosters. But I think the Yankees and Boston are likelier to be sellers than buyers.

[savage1]

The rule in gambling is that "The Trend is your friend."
That said, for a team which has finished as high as second just once in the last 20 years, I think the Jays are getting way too much response.
A team which had almost as bad a record as the Sox last year and who simply added some high price players who couldn't get it done for the Marlins doesn't do it for me.
Imo they will be very lucky to even make the playoffs let along make it to the WS.

[Hoopster007]

I like Boston to rebound and be competitive but I do not see them as a 90 win team. I just do not think this Boston team has it in them to be honest. I think there are too many question marks with them due to injury concerns.

I really like the Baltimore over 79 wins and played that already. Agree that last year was not a fluke and think they can easily be a .500 ball club this year.

I agree with the analysis on Milwaukee and played that one as well. Outside of Gallardo and Braun (assuming there is no more steroid talk), they really do not have much to speak of. Also, with Lohse signing this late, how long before he really gets it going this year?
I also like the Kansas City over I believe 78.5 wins. I think they have done enough to easily be a .500 team.

They don't have much except the best offense in the NL that happened to be 3rdbest in the entire league last year. It's going to be a top 10 offense again and even with the average SP last year, they would have been right in the mix if the back end of the bullpen didn't blow so many games. I am not saying that your bet is bad but adding some info. If something happens with Braun they are screwed but if not they are going to win some games and make this bet very tight.