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2* San Francisco over Baltimore (possible upgrade)
Play at -4 or better
90% of the action hasn't come in yet. I predict the public will be on Baltimore. I doubt it will get to -3, but it is worth the wait.
Also, with the public betting on Balt's money line, SF money line bet is a great play especially at -160 or better.
This is a rare Super Bowl in that I think there is actually value in the line. With so much money pouring in on this game ($90+ million in Nevada alone) the line is usually accurate, but not this year. My calculated line is SF-5.2, but Baltimore has become the darling of the NFL after beating Denver and NE and public money far outweighs sharp money in the big game. It's funny how short the public bettors memory is. A few games ago, they couldn't get enough money against Baltimore. Balt ended the season 1-4 SU and ATS. The public was betting the house against them in the Wildcard round against Indy (who was one of the worst statistical playoff teams in the last decade). So, 120 minutes of football has changed everything? Let's take a closer look at those games. They then beat Denver on a 70 yard bomb (ESPN stats calculated that they had less than a 3% chance to win that game before that play). And, last week they beat NE but NE was actually +0.2 YPP (yards/play) (historically equates to a small victory) but the Pats were also -3 in turnovers (teams that are -3 in TO only win SU about 15% of the time, and cover less) and 1-4 in the red zone. SF has one of the best all around offenses in the last few years. They average 5.2 YPR (2nd). Their YPR was good even before Kaepernick took over center. Kaepernick has averaged 8.3 YPPA (would have been tied for 1st during the regular season). People are talking about how Kaep will react under the lights, but I am not concerned. His INT % is 1.3% (3 int's in 223 passes). This is compared to Flacco who as a 2.2% interception rate. Baltimore's D is only slightly above average. They allow 6.4 YPPA (10th) and 4 YPR. SF has averaged 26 PPG versus defenses that have collectively allowed 21.9 PPG. I think that SF's body of work is better...let's go Niners!
2* San Francisco over Baltimore (possible upgrade)
Play at -4 or better
90% of the action hasn't come in yet. I predict the public will be on Baltimore. I doubt it will get to -3, but it is worth the wait.
Also, with the public betting on Balt's money line, SF money line bet is a great play especially at -160 or better.
This is a rare Super Bowl in that I think there is actually value in the line. With so much money pouring in on this game ($90+ million in Nevada alone) the line is usually accurate, but not this year. My calculated line is SF-5.2, but Baltimore has become the darling of the NFL after beating Denver and NE and public money far outweighs sharp money in the big game. It's funny how short the public bettors memory is. A few games ago, they couldn't get enough money against Baltimore. Balt ended the season 1-4 SU and ATS. The public was betting the house against them in the Wildcard round against Indy (who was one of the worst statistical playoff teams in the last decade). So, 120 minutes of football has changed everything? Let's take a closer look at those games. They then beat Denver on a 70 yard bomb (ESPN stats calculated that they had less than a 3% chance to win that game before that play). And, last week they beat NE but NE was actually +0.2 YPP (yards/play) (historically equates to a small victory) but the Pats were also -3 in turnovers (teams that are -3 in TO only win SU about 15% of the time, and cover less) and 1-4 in the red zone. SF has one of the best all around offenses in the last few years. They average 5.2 YPR (2nd). Their YPR was good even before Kaepernick took over center. Kaepernick has averaged 8.3 YPPA (would have been tied for 1st during the regular season). People are talking about how Kaep will react under the lights, but I am not concerned. His INT % is 1.3% (3 int's in 223 passes). This is compared to Flacco who as a 2.2% interception rate. Baltimore's D is only slightly above average. They allow 6.4 YPPA (10th) and 4 YPR. SF has averaged 26 PPG versus defenses that have collectively allowed 21.9 PPG. I think that SF's body of work is better...let's go Niners!
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