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**Udog** · 01-27-2013, 12:56 PM

NFL odds: Super Bowl XLVII opening line report

It was a Sunday the Harbaugh family will never forget.

Baltimore’s John and San Francisco’s Jim will be the first brothers to ever square off in a Super Bowl on Feb. 3 in New Orleans after leading their respective teams to victories on Sunday.

We chat with Pete Korner, founder and owner of Nevada-based oddsmaking service The Sports Club, about his suggested spread for Super Bowl XLVII.

Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers (-5, 52)

While speaking with Korner about this year’s Super Bowl odds he made one thing very clear – this decision was “very tough to make.”

Korner’s stable of oddsmakers varied between Niners -5 and -3, but he ultimately decided to send out a suggested spread on the high end at -5, well above what most shops decided to open at.

“We have been high on favorites and totals all year,” Korner told Covers.

What makes setting lines for the Super Bowl unique is the two-week layoff before the big game and the international interest it draws.

“The trick is trying to set a line that will encourage two-way action for the entire two weeks leading up to the game,” Korner says. “I don’t mind being a little high.”

Sportsbook directors in Vegas are predicting an early flood of San Fran money and aren’t expecting to see two-way action until the line eventually hits Niners -6, according to Korner. The proximity of the 49ers to Nevada should boost the amount of money being wagered.

Most offshores and Vegas books opened with a total between 48 and 49, well below The Sports Club’s suggested number of 52. San Francisco has played over the number in nine of its last 10 games overall and Joe Flacco has the Baltimore offense averaging 30 points per game in the playoffs. Remember, Flacco helped his team put up 38 points against a stout Denver defense a couple weeks ago.

“What makes Flacco’s run impressive is that he’s done it in adverse weather conditions,” says Korner. “He’s done it in the cold and wind at two very tough venues (Denver, New England) for an opposing QB."

Most Vegas shops are currently hovering around Niners -4 with a total of 48 as of Monday morning. Korner expects books will see peak action early on Super Bowl Sunday.

**Udog** · 01-27-2013, 12:56 PM

Where the action is: Early Super Bowl XLVII line moves

The odds for Super Bowl XLVII are only a few days old and already books are making major adjustments to both the spread and total.

We talk with Jeff Stoneback, sportsbook manager at the MGM Mirage in Las Vegas, and Aron Black of online sportsbook Bet365.com about the early action coming in and where the odds could end up come February 3.

Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers – Open: -5, Move: -3.5

Some books opened the 49ers as big as 5-point favorites for Super Bowl XLVII after their thrilling win over the Atlanta Falcons in the NFC Championship Game. However, the Ravens' victory over the New England Patriots in the AFC title game has won over early-bird bettors, moving the spread as low as -3.5.

According to Black, the move on the spread has a lot to do with the action coming in on Baltimore’s moneyline odds. The Ravens opened as big as +170 to win the Super Bowl but have since been bet down to as low as +145.

“Though we are pretty balanced on the spread, we are seeing a lot of money on Baltimore straight up,” Black told Covers. “Our opening moneyline was +165, but with the money being taken here, which I can imagine is same for many others, the moneyline is now +150 with the move to 3.5.”

Similar betting patterns in Las Vegas have trimmed Baltimore’s odds. Stoneback says the bet count is fairly balanced, with a very slim lean toward San Francisco (17 more bets as of Tuesday afternoon) but there is a lot more money riding on the Ravens as underdogs.

“It’s all Baltimore in terms of money right now,” Stoneback told Covers. “It’s about 5-to-1 in favor of the Ravens. We have more bets on San Francisco but the larger bets are on Baltimore.”

Stoneback says that action forced MGM to trim their opening spread from 4.5 to 3.5, but also says the book doesn’t like to risk having to refund all the wagers on the biggest betting day of the year if the game comes in on four points. MGM made a similar move last year, going from Patriots -3.5 to -2.5 to avoid the risk of a refund on Super Bowl XLVI.

As for the total, the number opened at 49 and has dropped to as low as 47.5 with early money siding with the under. Stoneback believes those betting the Ravens also see Baltimore turning Super Bowl XLVII into a defensive battle, as it is their best chance of winning – much like the AFC title game.

MGM properties have yet to open their full card of Super Bowl prop bets yet, but have posted spreads for each of the quarters. According to Stoneback, sharp money jumped all over those odds and has flipped the prices on the two teams. San Francisco opened at -0.5 (-125) for the first quarter and is now -0.5 (+115). A similar move was made for the third and fourth quarters.

“They pounded us. It was amazing,” Stoneback says of the instant sharp action on the quarter spreads. “It was just big bets – limit play, limit play, limit play at every property. Just like sharks.”

Bettors waiting to see if the spread comes down further or if it will go back to its opening numbers may be wasting their time. According to Black, outside of freak injuries or out-of-the-blue suspensions, the Super Bowl XLVII odds may have found their place for the next two weeks of wagering.

"I don’t think it will move too much more until we get closer to the game," he says. "You never know what may happen but I would say the moves have been made for now."

**Udog** · 01-27-2013, 12:56 PM

Where the action is: Super Bowl mid-week line moves

The common trend, no matter if you’re betting Super Bowl XLVII in Las Vegas or online, is that the public loves the Baltimore Ravens. So much so, that sportsbooks have dropped the underdog from as high as +5 to +3.5 heading into the weekend before the Super Bowl.

Some books are dealing the 49ers at the discounted spread despite a strong belief that San Francisco should be a 5-point or even bigger favorite in New Orleans on Feb. 3.

“We believe that the line should be much greater on San Francisco, maybe more towards a 6-point spread,” Scott Birnie, a senior trader for UWin.com, told Covers. “However, Vegas and ourselves are trying not to lay anymore of the ‘People’s Favorite’.”

In Las Vegas, most sportsbooks are dealing San Francisco -3.5, adjusting the juice from -115 to -110 with money still coming in on Baltimore. According to Jay Rood, sportsbook director at the MGM Mirage, Ravens money outnumbers 49ers money at a 3-to-1 count.

“The San Francisco money could be waiting on the sideline waiting for us to go to -3 at some point,” Rood told Covers.

The one-sided wagering on the Ravens isn’t just reserved to the spread. Books are getting a lot of wagers on the moneyline, expecting Baltimore to win straight up – especially after big wins at Denver and New England in the postseason.

San Francisco opened as a -205 moneyline favorite but has since been bet down to as low as -164, with the Ravens coming back at +150 after opening as +170 moneyline pups.

While the early action had dictated some adjustments, only about 20 percent of the total handle for Super Bowl XLVII will come in before the weekend of the Big Game.

As for some of the early Super Bowl prop bets attracting action, ‘Will there be a special teams touchdown’ (Yes +175), ‘First Player to Score a TD’ (Anquan Bolden +1,200), Coin Toss (58 percent on tails), and the halftime show props are all popular plays.

“’Will Beyonce show cleavage’ number is sharp as we are getting even action on the Yes (-500) and No (+300),” Dave Mason of BetOnline.ag told Covers.

**Udog** · 01-27-2013, 12:57 PM

Super Bowl XLVII action report: Some books move to 3-point spread

Super Bowl XLVII is just one week away. While action has been hot and heavy at sportsbooks online and in Nevada, the bulk of the bets will come over the next seven days.

We talk with Jay Kornegay, sportsbook director at the LVH Superbook in Las Vegas, Aron Black of Bet365.com, and oddsmakers at online book BetDSI.com about the Super Bowl odds as the week-long countdown begins in New Orleans.

Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers (-3.5, 47.5)

Most sportsbooks are dealing the favored 49ers at -3.5. However, some markets have stayed high with San Francisco -4 while others have gone as low as -3. But if you’re going to grab the Niners at a field-goal spread expect to pay a hefty price. Juice is as high as -125 on the short spread.

One of the books dealing a field-goal spread is Bet365.com, which moved to -3 after taking one-sided money on Baltimore since opening.

"Yeah, the dreaded break to the key number. Not a decision taken easily," Black told Covers. "Since the move we have taken some more San Francisco money. I think many were waiting for the better price on the flat three. We may have to go back to 3.5. But for now, we have made the move and we shall see whether it was right or not."

The LVH Superbook is currently dealing San Francisco at -3.5 and has begun to take some big bets on the Niners after a week of one-sided Baltimore action. According to Kornegay the bet count is balancing out and he doesn’t expect their spread to shrink before kickoff on Feb. 3.

“I doubt it,” Kornegay told Covers about a move to -3. “We’re expecting more San Francisco money this week, especially in the last 48 hours. If it goes anywhere, it’ll go back up to -4.”

As for moneyline wagering, a flood of bets on the Ravens to win straight up has pushed the price on San Francisco from -205 to as low as -159 in some markets. BetDSI.com is currently dealing the 49ers as -175 moneyline favorites, which is drawing the attention of wiseguys.

“The majority of action that has been wagered has come from the public at this time,” BetDSI.com told Covers. “The only sharp action that has been put in play has been on the San Francisco moneyline.”

According to BetDSI.com, the money wagered and the bet count is still leaning toward the underdog Ravens but the allure of the favorite will draw in the recreational bettors closer the game day

**Udog** · 01-27-2013, 12:57 PM

NFL Super Bowl XLVII betting trends and notes

Unlike Romulus and Remus, Jim and John Harbaugh will not be fighting to a terrible death. Instead, they are the first pair of brothers to coach against each other in a Super Bowl.

In addition, this game marks Baltimore linebacker Ray Lewis’ last game in his NFL career. The mercurial future Hall of Famer and Super Bowl XXXV MVP will be performing his final dance at the Superdome on February 3.

As such, Super Bowl XLVII will be filled with plenty of firsts… and lasts.

Let’s take a look at how Baltimore and San Francisco arrived to New Orleans and what history says about their chances of hoisting the trophy.

All results are ATS (against the spread) unless noted otherwise.

Oh, brother

Baltimore’s John Harbaugh has been at his best when playing with a week or more of rest in his NFL career, going 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS. In addition, John is 30-12 SU against teams he managed to defeat in a previous meeting.

The Ravens downed the Niners, 16-6, on Thanksgiving Day last year, marking the only time Brother Jim has come up short in a non-conference tilt, as he is 7-1 SU and ATS against the AFC. That ties into his 19-5 SU and 18-4-2 ATS record in all games played outside the NFC West division.

Under his lead, San Francisco is an eye-opening 25-1-1 SU in games in which it rushes the ball 25 or more times a game.

In addition, the Harbaughs bring smiles to the face of over players with Jim going 10-1 SU and 8-2-1 over/under in games when the total is set at more than 43 points, while John is 5-1-1 over/under in games identically set at more than 43 points.

Warning: 12 of the 18 Super Bowl games on artificial turf have played under the total.

Advantage: Even

Commonality

These two teams squared off against two common opponents on 2012, the New England Patriots and the New York Giants.

The Ravens were 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS, winning the total yardage stats by an average 127 yards per game.

The Niners went 1-1 SU and ATS despite being out-yarded in both games by an average 86 yards per game.

In head-to-head games against fellow playoff squads this season, Baltimore went 4-3 SU and ATS and 3-4 ITS (In The Stats), while San Francisco was 5-2 SU and 3-3-1 ATS and 3-4 ITS.

Advantage: Ravens

Not so sweet favorites

The sporting public loves backing favorites and when it comes to the Super Bowl it’s like putting kids in a candy store. They go crazy.

As a result the public today suffers from a severe case of betting diabetes. That’s because overloading on these super-sweet favorites has proven to be an unhealthy experience, with favorites sporting a 20-12 SU and 13-17-2 ATS record, including 5-10-2 ATS the last 17 games.

Super Bowl favorites (read: San Francisco) taking on opponents off back-to-back SU and ATS wins are just 13-10 SU and 7-14-2 ATS.

Twenty-eight points is the cut-line for favorites in Super Bowl games. Since 1980, those who failed to score 28 points in the big game are 1-16-1 ATS. Those who managed to tally 28 or more points are 12-1-1 ATS.

FYI: Baltimore has surrendered 28 or more points in 13 of 93 games under John Harbaugh, including twice in 12 playoff games.

Advantage: Ravens

Conference call

Much like the National League’s one-time mastery over the American League, the NFC has held the upper hand over the AFC in Super Bowl games since the 1980 season, going 21-10 SU and 20-9-3 ATS, including 4-0 SU and ATS the last four years.

However, the NFC is only 6-9 SU and 8-6-1 ATS in the last 13 Super Bowl contests.

Ironically this game marks the seventh year in a row that the NFC representative squared off against the AFC East in its designated non-conference clashes.

This is only the second time in the last 11 years the AFC is the underdog.

Advantage: Niners

Statistically speaking

Baltimore’s 364 yards per game offense is 11th best in the league while it’s 361 YPG defense ranks No. 21.

San Francisco owns a Top-10 ranked offense and defense, averaging 375 YPG on offense and 308 YPG On defense.

From Game 9 out, or the 2nd half of the season, the Ravens’ net yardage (offense gained and defense allowed) improved 31 YPG. Surprisingly, the Niners’ net yardage slipped 29 YPG over the same span.

Advantage: Even

Defense rules… most of the time

It’s no surprise that 39 of the 46 Super Bowl winners have owned Top-10 ranked defenses.

What is surprising, though, is that while clubs with the better defense have gone 22-10 SU and 17-13-2 ATS in the big game since 1981, these teams are only 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS over the last six years.

Advantage: Niners

**Udog** · 01-27-2013, 12:58 PM

NFL
Dunkel

Baltimore vs. San Francisco
The 49ers look to build on their 9-3 ATS record in their last 12 non-conference games. San Francisco is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the 49ers favored by 6. Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-3 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 3

Game 101-102: Baltimore vs. San Francisco (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 136.325; San Francisco 142.495
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 6; 44
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 3 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-3 1/2); Under

NFL
Long Sheet

Sunday, February 3

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BALTIMORE (13 - 6) vs. SAN FRANCISCO (13 - 4 - 1) - 2/3/2013, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 1-0 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 1-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NFL
Short Sheet

Sunday, February 3

Baltimore vs. San Francisco, 6:30 ET CBS
Baltimore: 6-0 Under away off BB ATS wins
San Francisco: 10-2 ATS with a total of 42.5 to 49 points

NFL

Super Bowl XLVII

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Trend Report
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6:30 PM
BALTIMORE vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games
San Francisco is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 5 games

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**Udog** · 01-28-2013, 02:43 PM

Wiseguy Report: Sharp money on Super Bowl props

It’s no secret where the early money has come on the Super Bowl. At the opening number, San Francisco was as high as a 5.5-point favorite offshore, with mostly -5’s here in Las Vegas. But we’ve seen steady Baltimore money pour in since that time, driving the line down to the -3.5 or -4 range at every sportsbook in town; numbers that are currently attracting two-way action. I expect the 49ers to be in that same pointspread range (-3.5 or -4) between now and kickoff.

The early sharp money has also come in support of the under. One prominent offshore book opened the total at 52.5, and here in Vegas we saw several books open with a total of 50. Through the first week of Super Bowl betting, the under has been a popular wiseguy choice. The prevailing current offshore number is 47.5; here in Vegas we’re looking at mostly 48’s. I do expect the public to be squarely on the over Sunday – this total could easily get bet up a notch or two.

The Super Bowl is a unique animal when it comes to moneylines, particularly at the sportsbooks here in Vegas. We get a boatload of tourists in town for the big game, and those tourists have a strong tendency to bet the moneyline when supporting the underdog. Right now, San Francisco is in the -170 to -180 range on the moneyline, with the Ravens sitting at +150 to +160 in most locations.

But as we approach the game, we can expect the books to start adjusting the moneyline downwards to cope with the influx of Ravens ML bets. Don’t be shocked if at some point over the weekend, we see the 49ers in the -160 or -165 range, more typical of a three-point favorite, not a four-point favorite. Bettors who favor the 49ers are likely to pounce on that marketplace inefficiency in the 24-48 hours before kickoff.

For professional level bettors, wagering on the Super Bowl is not about side, total or moneyline bets – it’s about the props! Last year’s Patriots/Giants big game matchup generated just shy of $94 million in wagers at Nevada’s sportsbooks; a high percentage of which was on the proposition wagers. This year, sportsbooks are anticipating similar action.

The MGM/Mirage books were the first to open any proposition wagers to the betting public, hanging lines for all four quarters of the game. The sharps pounced all over MGM’s numbers, flipping the plus prices on the two sides. For example, San Francisco opened -0.5 (-125) for the first quarter. Within hours, the 49ers were -0.5 (+115).

Sportsbook manager Jeff Stoneback, talking about the flurry of sharp money, right from the get-go. “They pounded us. It was amazing. It was just big bets – limit play, limit play, limit play at every property. Just like sharks.”

But it’s Jay Kornegay and his staff at the LVH who are the true pioneers; the industry leaders when it comes to Super Bowl props. I’ll happily give them the attention they deserve here. The LVH numbers were posted this past Thursday, and their 24-page prop booklet features more than 300 additional wagering opportunities.

I was at the Superbook when the numbers were posted, and frankly, most of the sharp bettors in the book seemed to be extremely disappointed in what they found. Here are quotes that I overheard from four different pro bettors who all wished to remain anonymous.

“These are the best prop numbers I’ve ever seen.” “I have more respect for the LVH today than I’ve ever had.” “Jeez, they used to just throw stuff up there; not anymore!” “My goal is to bet as little as possible at the LVH. I want to bet against the dum-dum books.”

But for all the whining and complaining about how good the LVH’s prop sheet was this year, those same pro bettors weren’t shy about laying down limit wagers. Here are some of the most popular wiseguy bets from the LVH this past weekend. If you’re looking for one prevailing theme on these wagers, it’s ‘less offense, more defense’. All props listed are at -110 both ways unless otherwise noted.

Bettors were bearish on Ray Rice. Rice’s rushing yards opened at 66.5, but that was bet down to 63.5. Rice’s rushing yards opened at +11.5 vs. Frank Gore’s rushing yards, bet up to +17.5. The Ravens team rushing total opened at over/under 108.5; bet down to 100.5 by Sunday night. Rice’s receiving yardage total was bet down from 29.5 to 25.5. His longest reception was bet down from 16.5 yards to 14.5 yards, with a +110 on the over. His longest rush was bet down from -14.5 to -13.5. The under 6.5 yards on Rice’s first reception now has a -140 price tag attached. Even Rice’s rushing attempts were bet down from 17.5 to 17.

But while bettors were fading Rice, they were supporting his backfield mate Bernard Pierce. Pierce’s rushing yards total got bet up from 29.5 to 32.5. His longest rush (O/U 9.5 yards) now has a -120 attached to the over and his total receiving yards went from over 1.5 (+140) to over 1.5 (-110).

The LVH wasn’t shy about moving numbers, not just the juice. Torrey Smith’s first reception got bet down from over/under 14.5 yards to O/U 13.5 yards, -120 on the under. Dennis Pitta’s first reception got bet down from 9.5 to 8.5 yards, and his total receiving yards were bet down from 47.5 to 45.5. Frank Gore’s receiving yards went from an opener of 19.5 to the current number of 14.5. LaMichael James' longest rush went from 13.5 to 11.5 with a +110 on the over, and his total rushing yards got bet down from 30.5 to 25.

Many of these bets were ‘arbitrage’ type wagers, as bettors took advantage of the variance in the posted numbers both here in town and offshore. And bettors took their time to read the fine print. LVH ‘total and assisted tackles’ numbers excluded sacks, but included special teams tackles; not the case at some other books. Perhaps that’s a big reason why Terrell Suggs O/U 4.5 tackles went from over -145 to over +110 at the LVH, without a corresponding move elsewhere.

The cross-sports props are always a thought provoking handicap, and we saw early money come on props involving hockey, soccer, basketball and golf.

Barcelona’s Lionel Messi goals opened at -0.5 (-125) vs. Frank Gore touchdowns, bet up to -170. The New York Islanders total points from John Tavares vs. the total number of scores in the last two minutes of the first half went from pk +100 to pk +150. Dwyane Wade points vs. the Raptors opened -4 (-110) vs. Colin Kaepernick completions. Kaepernick +4 now has a -140 price tag attached. Chris Bosh points vs. the largest lead of the Super Bowl went from -0.5 (-110) to -145. And Lee Westwood’s final round score at the Dubai Desert Classic vs Ray Rice rushing yards went from -3 to -5.5.

Let’s not forget special teams! Bettors didn’t touch 49ers kicker David Akers' total points (O/U 7.5), but Baltimore’s Justin Tucker went from 7.5 (U -120) to under -160. And money came on the over for both Sam Koch’s longest punt (56.5 yards, O -130) and Andy Lee’s longest punt (57.5, O -140)

Arguably the single biggest mover from the LVH openers came on the ‘total net yards for both teams’ prop. That number opened at 749.5 and got bet down again and again, currently sitting at 718.5 yards.

**Udog** · 01-29-2013, 10:06 AM

Young QBs struggle in Super Bowl debuts

San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick will join some elite company when he takes the field for Super Bowl XLVII on Feb. 3.

The Nevada product will have been on this Earth for exactly 25 years and 91 days this Sunday when he takes his first Super Bowl snap and become the sixth-youngest QB to ever play in the big game.

Here’s a look at the five QBs ahead of Kaepernick on the list and how they performed in their respective Super Bowl debuts as youngsters. None of the previous QBs racked up anything close to mind-blowing numbers in their first appearances.

1) Dan Marino - 23 years 127 days

Marino and the Dolphins squared off against the San Francisco 49ers and Joe Montana in Super Bowl XIX. The Dolphins, who had 74 rushing attempts in the previous two weeks, ran the ball only eight times in this game. Marino finished with 29 completions out of 50 attempts for 318 yards, throwing one touchdown pass and two picks. The Dolphins fell 38-16 in what was Marino's only Super Bowl appearance.

2) Ben Roethlisberger - 23 years 340 days

The Pittsburgh Steelers won Super Bowl XL 21-10 over the Seattle Seahawks on February 5, 2006. But Roethlisberger had one of the worst passing games of his career, completing just nine of 21 passes for 123 yards and two interceptions. His atrocious passer rating of 22.6 was the lowest in Super Bowl history by a winning quarterback. Roethlisberger became the youngest quarterback to win the Super Bowl, a record previously held by New England’s Tom Brady.

3) David Woodley - 24 years 97 days

The Dolphins had a tough matchup against the Washington Redskins in Super Bowl XVII. At the time, Woodley was the youngest Super Bowl starting quarterback in NFL history when he took the field. Despite starting the game well with a 76-yard touchdown pass to Jimmy Cefalo, Woodley and the entire offense struggled after that, going 0-for-8 passing in the second half. The Redskins won 27-17.

4) Tom Brady - 24 years 184 days

The Patriots were listed by Las Vegas oddsmakers as 14-point underdogs against the NFC champion St. Louis Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI. Brady was named MVP in the 20-17 Patriots victory while throwing for 145 yards, one touchdown, and no interceptions, becoming the then-youngest quarterback to ever win a Super Bowl.

5) Drew Bledsoe - 24 years 347 days

Bledsoe led the Patriots to Super Bowl XXXI, where they lost to the Green Bay Packers by a score of 35-21. Bledsoe completed 25 of 48 passes for 253 yards, with two touchdowns and four interceptions in the loss.

**Udog** · 02-01-2013, 08:19 AM

Can bettors take advantage of Super Bowl ref?

A referee can have a drastic impact on any NFL game, and normally the officiating crew for the Super Bowl every year consists of battle-tested veterans that are accustomed to the pressure of the Big Game.

Jerome Boger, who has never previously officiated a conference championship game or Super Bowl, is the referee assigned to work Super Bowl XLVII. That decision by the NFL is stirring a huge controversy ahead of Sunday’s showdown between the San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens.

Boger, a referee with seven years of experience and two as a line judge, got the nod over veteran referees Ed Hochuli and others with significant playoff and Super Bowl experience, causing many to question the league’s rating system for its officials. But that isn’t what should concern bettors Sunday.

Boger’s crews are notoriously known for cracking down on holding penalties, calling a league-high 18 holding penalties against defensive linemen since 2008. That is about triple the average and six more than Ed Hochuli’s posse. In fact, Boger’s crews have called an alarming 151 offensive holding penalties from 2010-2012. The Ravens were flagged for 18 offensive holding penalties (ninth in the league), while the 49ers were close behind with 17 (12th) this season.

Although Boger loves to blow the whistle on holding, he tends to be more lenient in other aspects of the game. He called an average of 11.42 penalties over 12 games this season - one less than the league average. Boger issued an average of 97.25 penalty yards per game – 8.2 yards below the combined league mark. He was also recently criticized for being too lenient in the next-to-last game of the season between the Raiders and Panthers. Carolina QB Cam Newton bumped Boger while disputing a call. Newton was penalized but not ejected because Boger said he didn't feel the bump was enough to warrant an ejection, as the rules require.

This is important to note because both the Ravens and Niners have a reputation for being “dirty” teams. Baltimore racked up a league-high 1,127 penalty yards and San Francisco was wrung up for 960 due to flags this season. The Ravens had the most unnecessary roughness calls (14) in the league and were also flagged for four roughing the passer penalties. San Francisco wasn’t far behind with 12 unnecessary roughness fouls to its credit. It will be interesting to see if Boger exhibits the same laid-back demeanor Sunday and if both teams will take advantage of it.

A few more important notes about Boger:

- He has officiated two games involving the 49ers this season and the Niners put up 45 points in both of them. Boger was in control of San Francisco’s 45-3 thumping of Buffalo in Week 5 and was also the main man for the Niners’ 45-31 win over Green Bay in the divisional round of the playoffs. Both of those games played over their respective totals.

- Teams played over the total in seven of Boger’s 12 games officiated this season and combined for an average of 42.8 points per game. The total is currently set at 47 for Sunday's game.

- After a 26-3 win over San Francisco in Week 6, New York Giants offensive coordinator Kevin Gilbride suggested 49ers defensive lineman Justin Smith "gets away with murder" by holding opponents to free up outside linebacker Aldon Smith for sacks. Expect Boger to have a keen eye on Smith Sunday.

- Boger will not be working with his regular crew Super Bowl Sunday. The seven-man crew has a combined 77 years of officiating experience and 50 combined playoff assignments.

**Udog** · 02-01-2013, 05:04 PM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Sunday, February 3

Super Bowl, New Orleans
We talked two weeks ago about success #4 seeds have in conference title games; well, since 1990, six #4 seeds made it to a Super Bowl- the last five went 5-0 vs spread, going 3-2 SU (Buffalo got crushed in '92). #4 seeds are division winner with worst record in conference, but they get in the tournament, get a home game in first round, and they've done well. Baltimore is a #4 seed.

I'm disregarding Baltimore's 16-6 win over the 49ers LY, since it was a Thursday game, so Niners had long trip on very short prep, an impossible situation.

49ers have advantage of having played in Superdome this year, winning 31-21 in Week 12 game; Ravens have only one game ever in this building, back in '06. San Francisco is 3-2 in domed stadiums this year; Ravens lost 43-13 at Houston, in their only dome game this year.

This is only 5th Super Bowl since 1990 with neither #1 seed, but 3rd in last five years; three of other four were decided by 7 or less points. NFC teams are 4-1 in last five Super Bowls, underdogs covering four of those five games.

Both teams looked dead during the playoffs; 49ers were down 17-0 in Atlanta in NFC title game, Ravens needed a ridiculous 70-yard bomb to tie game at Denver in last minute. Kaepernick had never started a game before this season, he is the 4th Super Bowl QB to say that-- two of first three won that first game.

NFC is generally better than the AFC, 49ers are higher-seeded team in the better half of the league, so logic dictates they'll win, but one red flag for the 49ers is their kicker, David Akers, who has had a bad year. Baltimore has a terrific kicker in rookie Tucker. I'm predicting the first overtime game in Super Bowl history, with the Ravens winning, 23-20.

**Udog** · 02-02-2013, 08:49 AM

Super Bowl action report: Lines getting longer, 49ers money rolling in

Action on the Super Bowl is starting to pick up Friday afternoon as tourist roll into Las Vegas and online books watch their servers hum with the flood of Big Game bets.

We chat with Jeff Stoneback, sportsbook supervisor at the MGM Mirage in Las Vegas, and Aron Black of Bet365.com as we head into the Super Bowl weekend.

Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers (-3.5, 47.5)

Bets slowly rolled in over the past two weeks, but lines are getting longer at Las Vegas sportsbooks and the majority of those bettors are putting their money down on the San Francisco 49ers.

Books expected this push from the public after taking one-sided action on the Baltimore Ravens for nearly two weeks. The MGM Mirage is dealing the 49ers -3.5 (-120) and is bracing for some big bets, which had to be approved, to come in.

“Right now we’re getting more San Francisco money, but we’re waiting on some larger wagers to come in and we don’t know who they’re betting,” says Stoneback, referring to some renowned casino players and guests expected to flirt with seven-figure wagers Sunday. “Those will make an impact.”

As for the total, both Nevada and online books expect a lean towards the over in the hours before kickoff. Stoneback believes the total, which stands at 47.5, could get as high as 49 before sharps buyback on the under.

The futures odds are an interesting market for most sportsbooks. San Francisco entered the season as the overall favorite to win the Super Bowl and has drawn a lot more attention in the second half of the NFL season.

“Futures wise, we want Baltimore,” Black told Covers. “San Francisco has been heavily backed all season, which died down when Smith went out. But with Kaepernick’s performances and San Francisco winning, they were very popular for the Super Bowl book going into the playoffs.”

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