Sunday's Trends and Indexes - 1/27 (NBA, NCAAB, NHL, Misc.)

[Udog]

NHL
Dunkel

Buffalo at Washington
The Capitals look to build on their 5-1 record in their last 6 games against the Sabres in Washington. Washington is the pick (-120) according to Dunkel, which has the Capitals favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Washington (-120). Here are all of today's picks.

SUNDAY, JULY 27

Game 1-2: Buffalo at Washington (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 10.265; Washington 11.190
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-120); Under

Game 3-4: Pittsburgh at Ottawa (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 11.908; Ottawa 10.628
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-115); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-115); Over

Game 5-6: New Jersey at Montreal (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 11.075; Montreal 12.692
Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Montreal (-115); 5
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-115); Under

Game 7-8: Philadelphia at Tampa Bay (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 12.750; Tampa Bay 11.948
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Tampa Bay (-130); 6
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+110); Over

Game 9-10: Minnesota at St. Louis (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 11.724; St. Louis 11.389
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: St. Louis (-155); 5
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+135); Over

Game 11-12: Detroit at Chicago (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 11.202; Chicago 12.659
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-145); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-145); Under

Game 13-14: NY Islanders at Winnipeg (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Islanders 12.592; Winnipeg 11.347
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Islanders by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Winnipeg (-145); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (+125); Over

Game 15-16: Vancouver at San Jose (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Vancouver 11.578; San Jose 12.777
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (-130); Under

[Udog]

NHL

Sunday, January 27

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Red Wings at Blackhawks: What bettors need to know
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Detroit Red Wings at Chicago Blackhawks (-134, 5.5)

The Chicago Blackhawks attempt to set a franchise record with their sixth consecutive victory to start the season when they host the Central Division-rival Detroit Red Wings on Sunday. Chicago edged the Columbus Blue Jackets 3-2 on Saturday to match the 1971-72 club for the best start in franchise history. Four of the Blackhawks' five wins have come on the road, where they play their next six games following Sunday's contest.

Detroit is coming off a 5-3 home victory over the Minnesota Wild on Friday. Todd Bertuzzi scored twice in his season debut while Pavel Datsyuk added a goal and two assists as the Red Wings finally broke through on the power play, tallying twice on five opportunities. They had gone 0-for-15 with the man advantage over their first three games of the campaign.

TV: 7 p.m. ET, FSN (Detroit), CSN (Chicago)

ABOUT THE RED WINGS (2-2-0): Detroit played without three of its top six defensemen on Friday. Jonathan Ericsson and Carlo Colaiacovo were out with a shoulder injury while Ian White missed the contest with a lacerated leg. The Red Wings did get a player back on the blue line, however, as Jakub Kindl returned from a groin injury to make his season debut. Bertuzzi missed the first three games of the season with the flu, although he initially was diagnosed with mononucleosis.

ABOUT THE BLACKHAWKS (5-0-0): Right wing Jamal Mayers played in his second consecutive game after being scratched for Chicago's first three contests. The rugged Mayers saw only 4:44 of ice time on seven shifts and was involved in a fight with Columbus' Jared Boll in the second period. "I'm not going to change how I've played for the last 17 years," Mayers said. "I'm just going to play hard and keep it simple and skate and do the things I've done my whole career."

TRENDS:

* Blackhawks are 5-0 in their last five overall.
* Red Wings are 1-4 in their last five vs. Central foes.
* Under is 6-0 in the last six meetings.
* Under is 4-0 in Blackhawks’ last four home games.

OVERTIME:

1. The Blackhawks went 4-0-2 against the Red Wings last season, earning 10 of a possible 12 points.

2. Detroit C Darren Helm also made his season debut Friday after missing the first three contests with a back injury.

3. Chicago has lost to Detroit in regulation just once in the last 11 meetings between the Original Six rivals.


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[Udog]

NBA

Sunday, January 27

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Bank shots: NBA betting news and notes
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Each week, we look back on the NBA betting scene and give you the best –and worst – basketball bets, as well as some spots to keep an eye on with the upcoming schedule.

For the week of Jan. 20-26.

Hottest ATS team

Washington Wizards (3-1 SU, 4-0 ATS)

The Wizards are on a red-hot 10-game cover streak. Washington has thrived since PG John Wall returned from injury and continues to defy oddsmakers as an underdog. The Wizards host the Kings Monday before heading out on a three-game road swing.

Coldest ATS team

Los Angeles Clippers (0-4 SU, 0-4 ATS)

The Clippers have been money for bettors all season long but they’re currently mired in a mid-season slump. Los Angeles has failed to cover in five straight games – four times as favorites. The Clippers host Portland Sunday and then head out on a season-long eight-game road trip beginning Wednesday in Minnesota.

Best over team

Milwaukee Bucks (2-1 SU, 3-0 over/under)

The Bucks have soared over the total in four consecutive games. Milwaukee’s offense has come alive during that stretch, averaging 109.2 points per game. The Bucks hit the court again Tuesday in Detroit before two tough contests against the Bulls and Knicks.

Best under team

New York Knicks (1-2 SU, 0-3 over/under)

The Knicks have gone low in five straight and six of their last seven games. New York is averaging just 84.6 points over the last three games – 11.5 points lower than its 96.1 season average. The Knicks kick off a five-game homestand beginning Sunday when Atlanta rolls into town.

Scouting the schedule:

-The Philadelphia 76ers kicked off their season-long eight-game homestand with a win over the Knicks Saturday night. The Sixers are 16-6 O/U at the Wells Fargo Center.

-The New Orleans Hornets play eight of their nine games away from home, but that isn’t necessarily a bad thing for their backers. The Hornets boast an impressive 14-7 ATS mark on the road.


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[Udog]

NCAAB
Top 25 Short Sheet

Sunday, January 27

Michigan State at Indiana, 1:00 ET CBS
Michigan State: 0-8 ATS off BB games allowing 65 points or less
Indiana: 10-2 ATS at home off a home win by 10+ points

(TC) Creighton at Southern Illinois, 8:00 ET ESPNU
Creighton: 11-4 ATS after playing as a favorite
Southern Illinois: 8-20 ATS after losing 3 of their last 4 games

Michigan at Illinois, 6:00 ET BTN
Michigan: 23-11 ATS off 3+ conference games
Illinois: 0-6 ATS at home off a win by 10+ points

Florida State at Miami FL, 6:00 ET ESPNU
Florida State: 8-1 Over away off a home win
Miami FL: 6-0 ATS in home games


(TC) = Time Change

[Udog]

NBA
Short Sheet

Sunday, January 27

Miami at Boston, 1:00 ET ABC
Miami: 8-1 Under off a win by 15+ points
Boston: 1-8 ATS off a road loss by 10+ points

Oklahoma City at LA Lakers, 3:30 ET ABC
Oklahoma City: 17-5 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points
LA Lakers: 8-20 ATS after playing as a favorite

Detroit at Orlando, 6:05 ET
Detroit: 15-5 ATS after allowing 110+ points
Orlando: 1-8 ATS as a favorite

New Orleans at Memphis, 6:05 ET
New Orleans: 14-6 ATS off a home game
Memphis: 12-3 Under after allowing 85 points or less

Atlanta at NY Knicks, 6:35 ET ESPN
Atlanta: 0-8 ATS off BB ATS wins as favorites
NY Knicks: 17-7 ATS at home off a road game

Phoenix at Dallas, 7:35 ET
Phoenix: 11-1 Under playing with same-season revenge
Dallas: 15-4 ATS at home off a division game

Portland at LA Clippers, 9:35 ET
Portland: 2-15 ATS off BB ATS wins
LA Clippers: 12-3 ATS on Sundays

[Udog]

NHL
Short Sheet

Sunday, January 27

Buffalo at Washington, 3:05 ET NHL
Buffalo: 12-23 SU after losing 2 of their last 3 games
Washington: 18-9 Over off a road loss

Pittsburgh at Ottawa, 5:05 ET
Pittsburgh: 16-4 SU off a road loss
Ottawa: 16-6 Over off a road loss by 2+ goals

New Jersey at Montreal, 6:05 ET
New Jersey: 22-10 ATS off a home win
Montreal: 4-14 ATS after winning 2 of their last 3 games

Philadelphia at Tampa Bay, 6:05 ET
Philadelphia: 7-0 Over off a road win by 3+ goals
Tampa Bay: 12-1 SU at home with a total of 6+ goals

Minnesota at St. Louis, 8:05 ET NBCSN
Minnesota: 4-18 SU away off a loss
St. Louis: 12-1 SU at home off a win by 1 goal

Detroit at Chicago, 7:05 ET
Detroit: 6-12 ATS away after winning 2 of their last 3 games
Chicago: 13-2 ATS at home off 3+ games scoring 3+ goals

NY Islanders at Winnipeg, 8:05 ET
NY Islanders: 14-5 Over off BB road games
Winnipeg: 9-19 SU after winning 2 of their last 3 games

Vancouver at San Jose, 8:05 ET
Vancouver: 21-6 SU off 3+ Unders
San Jose: 3-11 SU on Sundays

[Udog]

NFL Pro Bowl: What bettors need to know

AFC vs. NFC (+1.5, 80)

Betting the Pro Bowl can be tricky. You never know who is going to play and for how long. One thing we do know is that defenses are hardly a factor in the Pro Bowl, as evidenced by the opening 84-point total, so we decided to break down the key offensive positions in an attempt to find a betting edge.

Quarterbacks

AFC- Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck, Matt Schaub

The AFC was hoping to have the Patriots’ Tom Brady to round out its QB carousel, but he won’t participate because of injury. Each of the AFC QBs has brought their favorite targets with them to Hawaii. Demaryius Thomas, Reggie Wayne, Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels should have excellent chemistry with their club QBs and that could make a difference in the game.

NFC – Drew Brees, Eli Manning, Russell Wilson

The NFC quarterbacks in this year’s game were supposed to be a completely different trio, but Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan and Robert Griffin III are all dealing with injuries. That being said, the NFC still boasts an elite crop of QBs led by Drew Brees. But only Manning (Victor Cruz) will be throwing to a target he’s accustomed to.

Edge: AFC


Running Backs

AFC – Arian Foster, Jamaal Charles, C.J. Spiller

The AFC can’t hold a candle to the elite crop of RBs the NFC is bringing to the table. Some would argue that Foster is the only back of this trio deserving of playing in the game.

NFC – Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch, Doug Martin

You’d be hard-pressed to find a better running trio in the NFL. Peterson nearly broke the single-season rushing record, Lynch rushed for over 1,500 yards and Martin shocked the football world with a breakout season as a rookie.

Edge: NFC


Receivers

AFC – A.J. Green, Andre Johnson, Reggie Wayne, Demaryius Thomas, Owen Daniels

As mentioned above, the AFC receiving corps will have familiarity with their team quarterbacks. Wayne and Thomas are used to snatching darts from Manning, while Daniels and Johnson already have excellent chemistry with Matt Schaub.

NFC – Julio Jones, Victor Cruz, Larry Fitzgerald, Vincent Jackson, Jason Witten

The NFC receiving group was supposed to be led by Calvin Johnson, but Megatron isn’t healthy enough to play after his record-setting campaign. Larry Fitzgerald is subbing in despite only having 798 receiving yards and four TDs this season.

Edge: AFC


Betting trends:

*The AFC posted a wild 59-41 victory over the NFC in the Pro Bowl last year.
*The AFC has won two of the last three Pro Bowls and holds a 15-12 all-time series lead.
*The NFC is 3-2 ATS in the last five Pro Bowls and the last three have played over the total.

Oddsmakers take (Courtesy of BetDSI.com)

"In a game that most people think should not be played, the Pro Bowl does offer betters a warmup before the Super Bowl next Sunday. So far this game has seen some sharp money hit the AFC at plus money and the line eventually flipped for this exhibition matchup between the two conferences. The total always gets a lot of public attention similar to the NBA All-Star Game. That public attention pushed the line a bit upward where it saw some buyback with sharp money hitting the under once it reached the 85 mark."

[StarDust Bum]

Inside the Paint - Sunday

January 27, 2013

Three seasons ago, the Los Angeles Lakers defeated the Boston Celtics 4-3 in the 2009-10 NBA Finals. The championship was the second straight for the “Purple and Gold” and it was also their third consecutive trip to the finals for the club. In the 2007 season, Boston humbled Los Angles in six games of the finals.
Fast forward to the 2012-13 season and both teams are barely clinging on to that recent history. If you follow the Association daily, you obviously know these teams have no shot of winning this season or to be brutally honest, not in the near future either. Unless some serious changes are made!

It took them a couple months but the oddsmakers have finally noticed how listless these teams have performed. Despite losing in Game 7 of last year’s Eastern Conference Finals to Miami, Boston (20-23 straight up, 14-26 against the spread) is a 28/1 choice at Sportsbook.ag to win the finals this season.

Los Angeles (18-25 SU, 17-25 ATS) is listed at a 40/1 price and that number is still too low. It should probably be 100/1 but the oddsmakers don’t want to put at risk. However, they’re four games out of the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference and it’s an uphill battle here on out.

On Sunday, the two most recognizable franchises in the NBA can make a statement with home victories against the two teams that squared off in last year’s finals, Miami (28-12 SU, 20-20 ATS) and Oklahoma City (34-10 SU, 26-16 ATS).

Let’s take a closer look at the two nationally televised matchups on ABC, which tip at 1:05 p.m. ET.

Miami at Boston: The Heat opened as a 3 ½-point road favorite and bettors could be hesitant to back the defending champions because their road record is 10-9 SU and 8-11 ATS. However, Miami is facing a Boston team that has dropped six straight games. Three of those setbacks occurred at TD Garden, where the team has gone 13-9 SU and 8-12 ATS this season. As an underdog this season, Boston is just 5-11 against the number.

Miami beat Boston 120-107 at home in the season opener on Oct. 30 and it covered as a 6 ½-point favorite. This was a tight game down the stretch and a lot closer than the 13-point margin. Ray Allen sparked the Heat with 19 off the bench and the former Celtic will be making his first return to Boston on Sunday.

Including last year’s Eastern Conference Finals, the ‘over’ is on a 6-2 run between these teams. Sunday’s ‘over/under’ is hovering around 188 points. The Heat offense has started to click, posting 100-plus points in their last two games albeit against the Raptors and Pistons.

However, Boston has only eclipsed the century mark once during its current six-game slide and that came in Friday’s 123-111 overtime loss at Atlanta. Also, the ‘under’ has cashed in seven of the last eight games played at TD Garden and the lone ‘over’ ticket snuck in during an overtime loss to Chicago (99-100) on Jan. 18.

Oklahoma City at L.A. Lakers: The Thunder opened as a 3 1/2-point road favorite and the number dropped to three, which could seem a little low. Just over two weeks ago, Oklahoma City blasted Los Angeles 116-101 as a six-point favorite from the Staples Center. The Lakers didn’t have All-Star center Dwight Howard in the lineup but is he worth three points? If you’ve seen this guy play, you’re aware that he’s lost a step defensively and his offensive game doesn’t fit, which explains the daily trade rumors out of Los Angeles.

When the Lakers did have Howard suited up against OKC on Dec. 7, he had 23 points and 18 rebounds. Guess what? The Thunder failed to cover the number (7 ½) but they still notched a 114-108 win at home and that’s with L.A. outscoring the Thunder 33-25 in the final 12 minutes. To be fair, Steve Nash and Pau Gasol didn’t play in that loss and they’re both expected in action on Sunday.

Including Kobe Bryant, all four played on Friday and they cruised past Utah 102-82 as a five-point home favorite. The victory snapped a four-game losing skid for the Lakers. The Jazz aren’t a bad team but they don’t have a talented point guard to attack the Lakers, which is their major weakness on defense. Oklahoma City has that type of player and his name is Russell Westbrook. The All-Star out of UCLA scored 33 in the first meeting at home and 27 two weeks ago in Los Angeles.

The Thunder will be playing the final game of their six-game road trip, which has seen the team go 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS in the first five contests. Including these outcomes, OKC has gone 15-7 SU and 12-8 ATS on the road this season.

The total is hovering around 207 points, which is down from the opener of 210. The Lakers have seen the ‘under’ go 13-9 at Staples Center and the Thunder are 13-9 to the ‘under’ on the road.

MVP Odds and Future Props

If you’re looking for a tightly contested wager, then you should turn your attention to this year’s Most Valuable Player award. Oklahoma City’s Kevin Durant is now the 5/6 (Bet $120 to win $100) favorite at Sportsbook.ag while Miami’s LeBron James is a 7/5 (Bet $100 to $140) choice. After those two All-Stars, the Clippers’ Chris Paul and the Knicks’ Carmelo Anthony are next in line at 10/1 odds. In case you’re wondering, Kobe Bryant is listed at 25/1 (Bet $100 to win $2,500) and the Celtics’ Rajon Rondo has the same odds as well.

Another betting option at Sportsbook.ag that has value is the 2013 NBA Finals Possible Matchups prop. If you believe Oklahoma City and Miami will meet again, then take advantage of the 3/1 odds (Bet $100 to win $300). I personally don’t see anybody beating the Heat in the East and if you believe that statement, then perhaps check out these other options, which can create some nice hedge bets come the postseason.

Heat vs. Clippers (9/2)
Heat vs. Spurs (11/2)
Heat vs. Grizzlies (20/1)
Heat vs. Lakers (28/1)
Heat vs. Nuggets (32/1)
Heat vs. Warriors (65/1)

[Udog]

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