Tweet
1* Tease:
Atlanta to 10.5 or more
NE to 2.5 or less
ATL
It is not a debate that this line is wrong. Even Vegas knows the line is wrong, but with so much money coming from he public (on SF in this game) during the playoffs, they need some money coming in on Atlanta. Here's proof that this line is wrong. Future Super Bowl lines are now available and are as such: NE -6 vs. ATL and NE -2.5 vs. SF. This implies that on a NEUTRAL field SF should be -3.5 vs. Atlanta! So, why are they -4 AT Atlanta? Simple...public perception. At halftime of the ATL/SEA game this line was SF -1 vs. Atl. Then, when Seattle came back it opened at -3 and has shot to -4. My calculated line is SF -1.5 (so their original line was correct). Add in SF's dominant peformance versus GB (which was easy to predict because GB is soft) and there is your inflated line. If you blindly bet ATL (or teams/lines that provide value) you will win in the long run. By my calculations ATL has a 54% chance to cover. But, in 1 game anything is possible and SF's stats are way better (as far as yards and yards/play). The thing is, ATL consistently outplays their stats. SF averages 5.1 YPR and 7.7 YPPA. They allow 3.7 YPR and 6.1 PPA. On the other end, ATL averages 7.8 YPPA and 3.7 YPR. Defensively, they allow 4.8 YPR and 7.4 YPPA. So, how did ATL win so many games this year? They get it done when and where it matters. They were 45% on 3rd down conversion (2nd during regular season) and they scored a TD 59% of the time in the red zone (6th during the regular season). I bet against ATL very often this year because of the bad stats, but I think that they are actually undervalued here. Bottom line, the value is on ATL but SF stats are superior and can cover so I am going to tease ATL up.
NE
Let me start by saying there is no way Balt is going to win this game. They are coming off 2 games in 6 days including playing 5 quarters in high altitude last week. Conversely, NE had an easy win at home last week. That said, the line is correct (my calculated line is NE -8.2) so there is not value on NE...hence the tease. NE is another team (like ATL) that consistently outplays their stats. They average 4.2 YPR and 7.6 YPPA. Their run D is very good allowing 3.9 YPR (6th during the reg season). Their pass D through the year wasn't good (7.2 YPPA), but the last 3 weeks they have only been allowing 6.5 YPPA. This is pretty amazing: NE averaged 35.2 PPG versus teams that collectively allowed 22.6 PPG. Balt's D is middle of the road allowing 7 YPPA and 4 YPR. In the offensive side they average 4.3 YPR and 7 YPPA. Give me NE in a teaser!
Atlanta to 10.5 or more
NE to 2.5 or less
ATL
It is not a debate that this line is wrong. Even Vegas knows the line is wrong, but with so much money coming from he public (on SF in this game) during the playoffs, they need some money coming in on Atlanta. Here's proof that this line is wrong. Future Super Bowl lines are now available and are as such: NE -6 vs. ATL and NE -2.5 vs. SF. This implies that on a NEUTRAL field SF should be -3.5 vs. Atlanta! So, why are they -4 AT Atlanta? Simple...public perception. At halftime of the ATL/SEA game this line was SF -1 vs. Atl. Then, when Seattle came back it opened at -3 and has shot to -4. My calculated line is SF -1.5 (so their original line was correct). Add in SF's dominant peformance versus GB (which was easy to predict because GB is soft) and there is your inflated line. If you blindly bet ATL (or teams/lines that provide value) you will win in the long run. By my calculations ATL has a 54% chance to cover. But, in 1 game anything is possible and SF's stats are way better (as far as yards and yards/play). The thing is, ATL consistently outplays their stats. SF averages 5.1 YPR and 7.7 YPPA. They allow 3.7 YPR and 6.1 PPA. On the other end, ATL averages 7.8 YPPA and 3.7 YPR. Defensively, they allow 4.8 YPR and 7.4 YPPA. So, how did ATL win so many games this year? They get it done when and where it matters. They were 45% on 3rd down conversion (2nd during regular season) and they scored a TD 59% of the time in the red zone (6th during the regular season). I bet against ATL very often this year because of the bad stats, but I think that they are actually undervalued here. Bottom line, the value is on ATL but SF stats are superior and can cover so I am going to tease ATL up.
NE
Let me start by saying there is no way Balt is going to win this game. They are coming off 2 games in 6 days including playing 5 quarters in high altitude last week. Conversely, NE had an easy win at home last week. That said, the line is correct (my calculated line is NE -8.2) so there is not value on NE...hence the tease. NE is another team (like ATL) that consistently outplays their stats. They average 4.2 YPR and 7.6 YPPA. Their run D is very good allowing 3.9 YPR (6th during the reg season). Their pass D through the year wasn't good (7.2 YPPA), but the last 3 weeks they have only been allowing 6.5 YPPA. This is pretty amazing: NE averaged 35.2 PPG versus teams that collectively allowed 22.6 PPG. Balt's D is middle of the road allowing 7 YPPA and 4 YPR. In the offensive side they average 4.3 YPR and 7 YPPA. Give me NE in a teaser!
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