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NFL YTD 30-16 +20.45 units
3* 2-0 +6.0 units
2* 10-5 +9.0 units
1* 18-11 +5.45 units
Lost my only play last weekend on GB.
4* Patriots -7 1/2 (-115)
1) Many make the argument that Baltimore has New England's number, pointing to the game earlier this season, last year's conf final in which NE didn't cover and the generally close games they have played. This is looking backwards. I am looking forward.
2) Baltimore is drained. After an emotional win in playoff week one, they played a long two-overtime game last week in altitude and were chasing and scrapping the whole way. Their aging defense now faces an offense that has been close to unstoppable.
3) New England should have won the Super Bowl last year and has been the NFL's best team for years but hasn't won rings in years. This team is too good to keep being denied. This game is one of those that will seem obvious after it is played.
4) The high winds expected for this game don't bode well for Flacco who is dependent on the deep ball. He was aided last week by outsanding catches on dubiously thrown passes.
5) Do we really expect Brady to be the turnover machine Manning was last week?
6) While the New England defense is vulnerable to the run, if the Patriots jump out to an early lead Baltimore may have to pass a lot.
7) Foxboro is one of the few places left in the NFL where there is a legitimate home field edge.
8) Let's be honest. Baltimore hasn't played well in weeks and its win last week was fluky.
No bet is perfect. My big worry is Baltimore's great run offense against New England's awful run defense. Everything else points to the Patriots.
Slight lean in the other game to Atlanta who likely would have been favored over SF at home as recently as three weeks ago.
3* 2-0 +6.0 units
2* 10-5 +9.0 units
1* 18-11 +5.45 units
Lost my only play last weekend on GB.
4* Patriots -7 1/2 (-115)
1) Many make the argument that Baltimore has New England's number, pointing to the game earlier this season, last year's conf final in which NE didn't cover and the generally close games they have played. This is looking backwards. I am looking forward.
2) Baltimore is drained. After an emotional win in playoff week one, they played a long two-overtime game last week in altitude and were chasing and scrapping the whole way. Their aging defense now faces an offense that has been close to unstoppable.
3) New England should have won the Super Bowl last year and has been the NFL's best team for years but hasn't won rings in years. This team is too good to keep being denied. This game is one of those that will seem obvious after it is played.
4) The high winds expected for this game don't bode well for Flacco who is dependent on the deep ball. He was aided last week by outsanding catches on dubiously thrown passes.
5) Do we really expect Brady to be the turnover machine Manning was last week?
6) While the New England defense is vulnerable to the run, if the Patriots jump out to an early lead Baltimore may have to pass a lot.
7) Foxboro is one of the few places left in the NFL where there is a legitimate home field edge.
8) Let's be honest. Baltimore hasn't played well in weeks and its win last week was fluky.
No bet is perfect. My big worry is Baltimore's great run offense against New England's awful run defense. Everything else points to the Patriots.
Slight lean in the other game to Atlanta who likely would have been favored over SF at home as recently as three weeks ago.
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