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**Udog** · 01-17-2013, 10:11 AM

Patriots open as big faves in AFC Champ. Game

The New England Patriots opened as 9.5-point favorites when they host the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Championship Game next Sunday.

Mike Perry, oddsmaker for Sportsbook.ag, has opened the floodgates at New England -9.5 with the total set at 51 after the Patriots’ 41-28 victory over the Texans. However, the win did come at a cost. New England lost tight end Rob Gronkowski after he re-injured his surgically repaired right forearm in the first quarter while diving to make a catch. Running back Danny Woodhead (thumb) was also forced to leave the game.

When asked if the potential loss of Gronkowski next week factored into his line for the AFC Championship Game Perry simply replied, “not really. Not with the way this Pats offense is rolling.”

The Patriots lost 31-30 at Baltimore in Week 3, but covered the spread as 2.5-point underdogs – the only time New England has been a pup this season.

Online sportsbook BetOnline has opened the Patriots as 7.5-point favorites with the total also at 51.

Niners open as 3-point faves in NFC Champ. Game

The San Francisco 49ers opened as 3-point favorites when they visit the Atlanta Falcons in the NFC Championship Game next Sunday.

Mike Perry, oddsmaker for Sportsbook.ag, opened the floodgates at San Francisco -3 with the total set at 47.5 after Atlanta’s dramatic 30-28 victory over the Seahawks. Perry was contemplating a line of Niners -1 after the Falcons took a 20-0 lead at the half, but wasn't impressed with Atlanta's near collapse in the second half and pumped the line up to Niners -3.

Online sportsbook BetOnline has also opened the 49ers as 3-point favorites with a total of 47.5.

**Udog** · 01-17-2013, 10:11 AM

Where the action is: NFL playoffs mid-week line moves

Conference Championship Sunday is one of the biggest betting days of the year and the odds for the AFC and NFC title games have already seen adjustments – and it’s only mid week.

We talk to Aron Black of Bet365.com about where the action is and where the odds will end up come kickoff:

San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons – Open: +3, Move: +4

Books weren’t stuck on the key number of three, quickly moving to 3.5 and as high as 49ers -4 with action coming in early on the road team. According to Black, money on the Niners is outnumbering action on the Falcons at 6-to-1 and this is “so far the biggest bandwagon game we have had in the playoffs."

“I don’t really see this changing, and can see San Francisco going -4.5 by game time,” Black told Covers. “Obviously, weather has no part to play in this game, so if San Francisco is getting the money now, they will still get played as the week goes on.”

While the 49ers are the popular spread pick, action on the moneyline for the NFC Championship is even. Atlanta opened as a +160 underdog to win outright and is currently being dealt as high as +175 in some markets.

“Those who like the Falcons are going straight up and ignoring the 4-point start,” says Black.

The total opened at 48 points and has since risen to 49.

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots – Open: -9, Move: -8.5

Surprisingly, some online books have moved down from the opening spread of New England -9.

Action is coming in on the Ravens’ spread at a 3-to-1 pace while others are waiving the points and taking Baltimore on the moneyline to win straight up. According to Bet365.com, money on the Ravens to win SU is outnumbering action on the Pats’ moneyline at 9-to-1.

“There are many who feel that the nine is too high and the +325 straight up is tempting many to get down on the dog,” says Black. “It looks like most feel that if (the Ravens) can go to Denver as 9.5-point dogs and win at elevation in double overtime, then they should be able to do it in New England.”

Black says this line could continue to drop as Sunday inches closer, expecting the spread to come down as low as New England -8. And, much like last week, the late AFC game will be the biggest decision for books on Championship Sunday.

The total, which opened at 51 points, is leaning toward the over and is up as high as 52.5 at some online markets.

**Udog** · 01-17-2013, 10:12 AM

Handicapping NFL Championship Games

And then there were four.

NFL’s version of the ‘Final Four’ kicks off this Sunday in the Championship Games where surprises aplenty have certainly been the buzzword.

That’s confirmed by the fact that underdogs have managed to pull off upsets in 14 of 44 title games since the 1990 season, the most recent being the New York Giants win at San Francisco last season en route to capturing Super Bowl XLIV.

Let’s take a quick look at what’s worked and what hasn’t in the Championship Games, because when it comes to handicapping games at this stage of the season we can use every edge imaginable.

Note: all results are ATS (Against The Spread) and are since the 1990 season, unless noted otherwise.

Gravity Alert

While high-scoring games are the norm in the NFL these days, teams arriving to the Championship Round off a high-scoring effort in their last game tend to come back to earth harder than a skydiver with a faulty chute.

Consider: nearly half of the 17 teams in this round who put 38 or more points on the scoreboard in a Divisional Round victory fell short of the Super Bowl, going 9-8 straight-up.

Worse, these teams are just 9-8 SU and 4-13 ATS, including 1-12 ATS when facing a foe that tallied less than 34 points in its previous game.

With Baltimore and New England canceling one another out, that puts San Francisco on warning this Sunday.

Situational Circumstances

The linemakers have done a nice job overall during this round, with favorites checking in at 23-21 ATS, and home teams 20-24 ATS.

Home chalk of 9 or more points has struggled, though, posting a dismal 2-8 ATS mark.

In addition, teams who played in a Wild Card game are 11-13 SU and 14-10 ATS in title tilts, including 5-0 ATS when facing opposition that scored more than 35 points in the division round.

That’s music to the ears of Baltimore backers.

Over There

Points aplenty in this league of late have forced the linesmakers to raise the over/under totals bar.

It's what happens when there have been 27 OVERS and 17 UNDERS in Championship Games.

Surprisingly, the higher the total the more OVERS there have been as games with a posted total set at 46 or more points going 9-3 OVER.

Been There Done That

Three of the four head coaches have had the luxury of coaching teams in Championship Games – namely Bill Belichick and the Harbaugh brothers, Jim and John.

Jim’s Ravens are 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS, while John’s 49ers fell as 2-point home favorites last year.

New England’s Belichick brings a lofty 5-1 SU and 3-3 ATS record with the Patriots in Championship Games. The Hoodie has been favored by 7 or more points in two of those contests, losing the money both times – including last year’s 23-20 win-no-cover over the Ravens.

Enjoy the games and good luck as always.

**Udog** · 01-17-2013, 10:14 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Conference Championships

Sunday, January 20

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SAN FRANCISCO (12 - 4 - 1) at ATLANTA (14 - 3) - 1/20/2013, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 22-12 ATS (+8.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 22-12 ATS (+8.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 1-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BALTIMORE (12 - 6) at NEW ENGLAND (13 - 4) - 1/20/2013, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 51-31 ATS (+16.9 Units) revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 94-68 ATS (+19.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 66-41 ATS (+20.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 1-1 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 2-1 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NFL
Short Sheet

Conference Championships

Sunday, January 20, 2013

San Francisco at Atlanta, 3:00 ET FOX
San Francisco: 5-1 Over off a win by 14+ points
Atlanta: 3-19 ATS at home off a home win

Baltimore at New England, 6:30 ET CBS
Baltimore: 6-1 ATS as a #4 seed in the playoffs
New England: 11-1 Over off a home win by 10+ points

NFL

Conference Championships

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Trend Report
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3:00 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. ATLANTA
San Francisco is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 7 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 7 games when playing San Francisco
Atlanta is 7-14 ATS in its last 21 games when playing San Francisco

6:30 PM
BALTIMORE vs. NEW ENGLAND
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 7 games when playing on the road against New England
Baltimore is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against New England
The total has gone OVER in 12 of New England's last 15 games
New England is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games

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**Udog** · 01-18-2013, 08:57 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Conference Championships

Baltimore at New England
The Patriots look to take advantage of a Baltimore team that is coming off a 38-35 OT win over Denver and is 0-3-1 ATS in its last 4 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. New England is the pick (-8) according to Dunkel, which has the Patriots favored by 12 1/2. Dunkel Pick: New England (-8). Here are all of this week's picks.

SUNDAY, JANUARY 20

Game 301-302: San Francisco at Atlanta (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 142.495; Atlanta 135.119
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 7 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 3 1/2; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-3 1/2); Over

Game 303-304: Baltimore at New England (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 134.360; New England 146.945
Dunkel Line: New England by 12 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: New England by 8; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New England (-8); Under

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Conference Championships

Last six times #1 seed played #2 seed in NFC title game, #1 seed won, but dogs covered four of last five NFC title games overall. Over last five years, underdogs are 6-4 vs spread in this round. Atlanta is underdog at home despite 8-1 mark in Georgia Dome, with only loss in meaningless Week 17 game. Smith/Ryan combo got monkey off back with first playoff win last week; they have Falcons here for first time since 27-10 loss at Philly eight years ago. 49ers lost this game at home LY, but now have more mobile Kaepernick at QB-- he dominated game against Green Bay last week, running ball for 181 yards, passing for 263 after throwing an early pik-6. SF is 2-2 in domes this year, losing at Rams/Vikings, winning at Cardinals/Saints. Eight of last nine Niner games went over total, including last five in row; six of last eight Atlanta games stayed under.

Since 1990, #4 seeds are 6-1 in conference title games, with '08 Cardinals only team that was at home; #4 seeds are 4-0 SU at #2 seeds in this round. Patriots (+3) led 13-0 after first quarter, lost 31-30 to Ravens in Baltimore back in Week 3, in flagfest (24 accepted penalties/218 yards) where Baltimore gained total of 503 yards, with Flacco averaging 9.8 ypa less than 24 hours after WR Smith (6 catches, 127 yards) lost his brother in motorcycle accident. Game ended on FG by rookie PK Tucker, who replaced Cundiff after he missed tying FG at end of LY's AFC title game, won 23-20 by Patriots (-7). Ravens playing with emotion trying to get leader Lewis into Super Bowl in his last year playing. Last time same two teams played in same stadium in consecutive conference title games was in '78-'79, when Oilers lost twice in Pittsburgh. 12 of last 15 Patriot games went over.

**Udog** · 01-18-2013, 08:58 AM

NFL Conference Championship betting cheat sheet

San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons (3.5, 48)

Versatile quarterbacks have given the Falcons nightmares this season. Carolina's Cam Newton threw for 502 yards with four TDs while rushing for 202 and two scores in two games against them in 2012. In last Sunday's 30-28 win over Seattle, Seahawks rookie signal-caller Russell Wilson passed for 385 yards with two TDs while running for 60 and a score on seven carries. Niners QB Colin Kaepernick rushed for a quarterback playoff-record 181 yards last week with a pair of touchdowns and overcame an early interception returned for a TD by throwing for 263 with two scores. Atlanta defensive end John Abraham, who will be one of the keys to keeping Kaepernick in the pocket, tweaked his ankle against the Seahawks and is listed as questionable for this week, though the Falcons expect him to play. The Falcons are 0-5 ATS in their last five playoff games.

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots (-8.5, 51)

The AFC championship will feature the same teams from the year before for the first time in 25 years when the Patriots host the Ravens. The last three matchups have been decided by a total of seven points, including the Ravens' 31-30 victory in Baltimore in Week 3. Ravens QB Joe Flacco has been sensational in the two playoff victories, throwing for 613 yards with five touchdowns and no interceptions. Flacco's the only QB in league history to reach the playoffs in each of his first five seasons and has torched the Patriots for 973 yards with seven TDs vs. two interceptions in the last three games. New England amassed a league-high 557 points during the regular season and had its sixth 40-point game last week. Tight end Rob Gronkowski re-injured his broken forearm early in last week's victory, depriving Brady of a target that has accounted for 38 touchdowns in his first 43 NFL games. The Patriots are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 playoff games and the underdog is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-19-2013, 09:46 PM

NFL Championship Round bloggers give one reason to bet their team

The NFL Playoffs are down to four teams, with San Francisco and Atlanta fighting for the NFC crown and Baltimore and New England renewing their rivalry in the AFC.

If you’ve looked these matchups over 1,000 times and still don’t know who to bet, perhaps it’s time to call in the experts. We’ve enlisted the help of NFL bloggers from each of the four remaining teams, asking for one reason to bet their side this Sunday.

San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons (+3.5, 48)

WHY SAN FRANCISCO COVERS

David Fucillo writes for Niners Nation. You can follow them on Facebook or Twitter @NinersNation.

The 49ers will cover on Sunday because the Falcons will be unable to sufficiently game plan against Colin Kaepernick. If they keep a linebacker to spy on him, it potentially opens up the middle of the field. If they don't spy him, they risk getting burned on the ground. They will be playing down either way.

WHY ATLANTA COVERS

Dave Choate is the editor-in-chief at The Falcoholic. You can follow him on Twitter at @TheFalcoholic.

For the Falcons to cover, they'll need to slow down a high-flying 49ers offense and bring firepower of their own. The key? Stop Michael Crabtree and the 49ers' dynamic tight ends and hold the edges against Colin Kaepernick. Also, don't be afraid to pass the ball deep and challenge the Niners secondary.

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots (-8, 51)

WHY BALTIMORE COVERS

Despite losing in last year’s AFC Championship Game, Joe Flacco outperformed Tom Brady. When the teams played in Week 3, Flacco outplayed Brady again. Flacco is currently the highest-rated passer in the postseason, registering a 120.0 quarterback rating by completing 30 of 57 passes for 613 yards, five touchdowns and no interceptions during wins against Indianapolis and Denver.

WHY NEW ENGLAND COVERS

Joe Soriano is the lead editor for Musket Fire. You can follow them on Facebook and Twitter @Musket_Fire.

The addition of Aqib Talib to the Pats secondary allowed Devin McCourty to move to safety, where he is even better than at CB. In fact, McCourty has allowed a QB Rating of just 10.2 since the switch to safety. Those position changes have led to a terrific upswing in the Pats ability to stop opposing passing offenses, and their improvement on pass defense is going to be the difference-maker this time around in holding down Torrey Smith and the Ravens pass offense.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-19-2013, 09:48 PM

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Conference Championships

Each week we take a look at some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL in order to find hidden betting value. Here are four mismatches you may not have considered when capping the NFL Conference Championship games:

San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons (+3.5, 49)

Niners’ TE Vernon Davis vs. Falcons’ weakness to TEs

Everyone is pointing to the Falcons’ issues stopping the run this weekend but 49ers TE Vernon Davis could be the real killer. As pointed out by Mark Sandritter of The Falcoholic, Atlanta has struggled against tight ends this season. According to Sandritter, opposing tight ends averaged 85.7 yards in the Falcons’ three losses this season.

Seahawks TE Zach Miller finished with 142 yards and a TD versus the Falcons last week, and Saints athletic TE Jimmy Graham punished Atlanta for 146 yards and two scores in Week 10. Davis has been quiet since Week 11 but is one of the physically dominant TEs in the NFL and has shown up in the big games.

Falcons K Matt Bryant vs. Niners K David Akers

Matt Bryant is quickly becoming “the” clutch kicker in the NFL. His 49-yard field goal in the dying seconds of last weekend’s Divisional Round game resurrected Atlanta’s Super Bowl hopes after an embarrassing fourth-quarter collapse. Bryant has won five games for the Falcons in the fourth quarter over the past three seasons – more than any other kicker in the league.

David Akers entered the postseason not knowing if he would be the Niners’ kicker for the playoffs following a dismal regular season in which he connected on just 29 of his 42 field-goal attempts. San Francisco is sticking it out with Akers, who was called into duty once – a 36-yard FG – last weekend. The 49ers could find themselves going for it on fourth down rather than turning to the erratic Akers.

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots (-9.5, 51)

Ravens’ passive possessions vs. Patriots’ clock-eating ability

We looked at a similar mismatch last week for the Ravens versus the Broncos, and Baltimore – despite winning – lost the time of possession battle 40:06 to 36:36 and held on to the ball for only 26:24 in regulation before hogging it in the two overtime periods. The Ravens rank 30th in the league in average TOP (27:38) and lost the TOP battle with the Pats in their Week 3 meeting, 31:03 to 28:57.

New England is 12th in the NFL in average TOP, holding on to the ball 30:33 per game despite running a no-huddle attack. The Patriots’ dink-and-dump offense can chew clock like a cheap steak if they want and will likely try to wear down an aging Ravens defensive corps playing its third postseason game. The emergence of the rushing attack will also help New England control the pace of the game.

Ravens’ emotion vs. Patriots’ lack of intimidation

The Patriots win most games before they even hit the field. New England has a psychological edge over the majority of opponents, especially when inside the chilly confines of Gillette Stadium. However, that leg-up doesn’t work with the Ravens, who fear no team – especially during Ray Lewis’ swan song.

Not only is Baltimore eating up the emotional push from their captain but they also ride a huge wave of momentum after stealing a win in double overtime from Peyton Manning and the AFC’s No. 1 seed. On top of that, the Ravens proved they could beat the Patriots in Week 3 and still want revenge for last year’s AFC Championship loss to New England. The Patriots had won 11 straight home playoff games before losing to the Baltimore in the AFC Divisional Round in 2009.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-19-2013, 09:49 PM

Take it or leave it: Capping Ravens-Patriots rematch

The New England Patriots and Baltimore Ravens are very familiar with each other. Not only did these teams clash in last year’s AFC Championship Game but they also butted helmets back in Week 3 of the regular season.

We asked some of Covers Experts’ sharpest minds to help bettors handicap this rematch, telling you what to take and what to leave from Baltimore’s last-second 31-30 win over New England back on September 23.

Take

Running Rice

Ravens RB Ray Rice had 101 yards and a score, as well as 49 yards receiving, in the Week 3 win over the Patriots and is coming off a huge 131-yard effort in the upset over Denver last weekend. New England, which ranked ninth against the rush (102.1 ypg), gave up 90 yards and a TD to Houston RB Arian Foster, who added 63 yards and a score receiving.

“The Pats had no answer for Ray Rice in the previous meeting and given what we saw from Rice last week, we might expect that trend to continue,” says Covers Expert Jesse Schule.

Touchdown Torrey

Ravens WR Torrey Smith was one of the incredible stories of the season, putting together a 127-yard, two-touchdown performance versus the Patriots in Week 3 after his brother died in a motorcycle accident that morning. Smith has since become Baltimore’s best deep target and had two touchdowns versus Denver.

“He's Baltimore's more dangerous downfield weapon and quite capable of putting together a similar performance in the rematch,” says Covers Expert Teddy Covers.

Emotion

Baltimore is a team that thrives on emotion. The Ravens came out swinging in Week 3 looking to avenge a loss to the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game the year before, led by Smith’s inspired decision to play despite the death of his brother. Baltimore is still out for payback and is sparked by the swan song of team captain Ray Lewis, who will retire at the end of the season.

“The Ravens had every reason to be fired up for the Wk 3 battle with New England,” says Covers Expert Bryan Power. “This will still be an emotional Baltimore team (this weekend) as every game can now be Lewis' last.”

Leave

Throw from Joe

Joe Flacco stretched the legs of the Ravens’ new offensive system in Week 3, hanging 382 yards and three TD passes on the Patriots. However, Baltimore leaned more on Rice and the running game last week, trying to keep the ball out of Peyton Manning’s hands. Expect a similar game plan versus Tom Brady.

“I don't expect to see another aerial assault from the Ravens this week,” says Covers Expert Sean Murphy. "Rice seemed to regain his form last week. A heavier workload seems to suit him well, and I don't think that will be lost on head coach John Harbaugh or offensive coordinator Jim Caldwell.”

Flags a flyin’

New England and Baltimore combined for 24 penalties and 218 penalty yards in Week 3, none more crucial than a pass interference call on Patriots CB Devin McCourty in the final minute that help set up Justin Tucker’s game-winning 27-yard field goal as time expired. Those calls came from replacement refs and there were just seven whistles for a total of 38 yards in last year’s AFC Championship.

“The refs controlled the first meeting, dominating the game,” Teddy Covers says of the Week 3 game. “I don't expect a penalty-fest this time around.”

Pats’ pointless push

New England managed to run for only 77 yards on 34 attempts in Week 3 – its lowest output on the ground this season. The Patriots have since been able to gain traction with the run, averaging 126.5 rushing yards over their last 11 contests. That includes 122 yards on 24 carries – 5.08 yards per attempt – and two scores against Houston’s seventh-ranked run defense last week.

“After finishing 20th in rushing offense a year ago, the Patriots are seventh this year which has contributed to their top NFL ranking both in total offense and scoring offense,” says Covers Expert Matt Fargo.

**Udog** · 01-20-2013, 07:43 AM

Where the action is: NFL Championship action report

NFL Championship Weekend is one of the craziest times for bookmakers both online and in Nevada. With two huge title games on tap Sunday, action has been pouring into the sportsbook, forcing oddsmakers to adjust and re-adjust their lines.

We talk to oddsmakers at online sportbook BetDSI.com about the latest lines move and betting patterns for the two conference championship games:

San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons – Open: +3.5, Move: +4.5, Move: +4

The early money moved this spread an entire point, with a ton of action coming in on the road team.

According to BetDSI.com, San Francisco bets are outnumbering Atlanta wagers at a 3-to-1 pace while action on the Niners is outnumbering that on the Falcons at 2-to-1. However, there is a split developing between public money and sharp money as Sunday draws closer.

“The public affection for the Niners and their second-year QB Colin Kaepernick has created massive public betting action,” says BetDSI.com. “Sharp money backing Atlanta at +4 and +4.5 is also focused on the second-year QB, albeit more in a negative sense knowing how hard it is for a young QB to hit the road and get playoff victories.”

As for the moneyline, the majority of wagers are taking the home underdog at +185. Atlanta opened as low as +160 on the moneyline last Sunday.

Total bettors are siding with the over, pushing the number from 47 to 49. Under money started to come in and has the majority of books dealing a total of 48.5.

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots – Open: -9.5, Move: -10.5, Move: -7.5

The Patriots have been public darlings all season but after opening as 9.5-point favorites and drawing some early action, books have taken one-sided money on the Ravens and have dropped the spread as low as 7.5.

“The public love affair with New England may be over this week with an even distribution of wagers and volume wagered for both teams,” says BetDSI.com.

Sharp money grabbed Baltimore at the discount spread when it jumped to double figures and have rode the Ravens all way down to +8 and +7.5. Buyback on New England at that spread has a sharp-versus-public dynamic forming for Sunday’s AFC Championship Game.

As for the total, bettors have sided with the over and recent sharp action has bumped the number from 51 to 51.5.

**Udog** · 01-20-2013, 07:46 AM

NFL

Conference Championships

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NFC Championship betting preview: 49ers at Falcons
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San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons (+3.5, 48)

The San Francisco 49ers are returning to the NFC championship game for the second time in as many years, but this time the offense is significantly different. Colin Kaepernick put together one of the most dynamic performances for a quarterback in playoff history to help topple Green Bay on Saturday in the divisional round and will be looking to repeat the effort when the 49ers visit the top-seeded Atlanta Falcons on Sunday.

The Falcons got a strong performance of their own from quarterback Matt Ryan in the divisional round but will be home underdogs against San Francisco after squandering a big lead and needing a late field goal to survive the Seattle Seahawks. Atlanta is 8-1 at home, including the playoff victory, but has serious questions about its defense after surrendering 21 fourth-quarter points in the divisional win. Kaepernick has proven he is equally comfortable throwing the ball and pulling it down to run - a combination Atlanta struggled against with Russell Wilson last weekend.

TV: 3 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE: The 49ers opened as 3.5-point road favorites has have been bet up as high as -4. The total has moved from 48 to 48.5.

CONSENSUS: 58 percent of Covers Consensus bets are on the Niners while 65 percent are on the over.

ABOUT THE 49ERS (12-4-1, 10-7 ATS): Kaepernick faced the questions that any first-time starter faces going into his first playoff game and answered every one against the Packers. After throwing an interception on his first series, Kaepernick set a playoff record for rushing yards by a quarterback with 181 and passed for 276, totaling four touchdowns along the way. The 25-year-old made a strong connection with wide receiver Michael Crabtree and helped open things up on the ground for Frank Gore, who rushed for over 100 yards (119) for the first time since Week 7. Defensively, San Francisco finished third in the NFL during the regular season but showed some cracks in the first half against Aaron Rodgers and company in the divisional round. Defensive tackle Justin Smith is dealing with a torn triceps and the 49ers struggled at times to get pressure on Rodgers.

ABOUT THE FALCONS (14-3, 9-7-1 ATS): Ryan does not have the same ability to escape the pocket that Rodgers has and will need more from his offensive line against the San Francisco pass rush. Ryan finally proved he could win a playoff game last weekend, throwing three touchdown passes and driving Atlanta for the game-winning field goal in the final seconds. Overlooked is the fact that the Falcons’ defense put Ryan in the position to come back by breaking down in the fourth quarter. Ranked 24th in the regular season, Atlanta’s defense allowed Wilson to pass for 385 yards and rush for another 60 while squandering a 20-point lead. Defensive end John Abraham, who will be one of the keys to keeping Kaepernick in the pocket, tweaked his ankle against the Seahawks and is listed as questionable for this week, though the Falcons expect him to play. Atlanta has had trouble with mobile quarterbacks like Wilson and Cam Newton, who used a similar read-option offense to put up 58 points in two regular-season games.

TRENDS:

* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Underdog is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings.
* 49ers are 24-11-1 ATS in their last 36 games overall.
* Falcons are 0-5 ATS in their last five playoff games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The 49ers (1995) and the Falcons (1999) have gone a combined 32 years without a Super Bowl appearance.

2. The teams have not met since the 2010 regular season, when Ryan led a game-winning drive for a field goal with two seconds left in a 16-14 triumph. Atlanta has taken four straight in the series.

3. San Francisco LT Joe Staley suffered a bruised arm in the divisional round and is listed as probable for Sunday.

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**Udog** · 01-20-2013, 07:48 AM

NFL

Conference Championships

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AFC Championship betting preview: Ravens at Patriots
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Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots (-8, 51)

The Baltimore Ravens took down one future Hall of Fame quarterback on the road last week and will to repeat that feat when they visit Tom Brady and the New England Patriots in Sunday's AFC championship game. It will be a rematch of last season's conference title game, when the Patriots eked out a 23-20 victory after Ravens kicker Billy Cundiff missed a game-tying 32-yard field goal in the final seconds. The teams have become increasingly familiar with one another, with Sunday's meeting marking the sixth time they will square off in four seasons.

The last three matchups have been decided by a total of seven points, including the Ravens' 31-30 victory in Baltimore in Week 3. The AFC North-champion Ravens stifled Indianapolis 24-9 before stunning Peyton Manning and the top-seeded Denver Broncos 38-35 in overtime to prolong linebacker Ray Lewis' final season and reach their third title game in five seasons. No. 2 seed New England pulled away in the second half for a 41-28 victory over Houston but lost star tight end Rob Gronkowski in the process.

TV: 6:30 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE: The Patriots opened as high as -9.5 and was bet up to -10.5 at some markets. However, action is coming in on the Ravens and has dropped the spread as low as 7.5. The total has moved from 51 to 51.5.

CONSENSUS: 69 percent of Covers Consensus picks are on Balimore while 62 percent are on the over.

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for cloudy skies and temperatures in the low 30s. Winds are expected to blow west at 12 mph.

ABOUT THE RAVENS (12-6, 8-9-1 ATS): Quarterback Joe Flacco raised more than a few eyebrows when he said earlier in the season that not only does he consider himself a top-five quarterback, but he feels he's "the best." No one's laughing now. Flacco has been sensational in the two playoff victories, throwing for 613 yards with five touchdowns and no interceptions. He also saved Baltimore's season last week by connecting with Jacoby Jones on a 70-yard scoring strike with 31 seconds left to send the game into overtime. Flacco's the only QB in league history to reach the playoffs in each of his first five seasons and has torched the Patriots for 973 yards with seven TDs vs. two interceptions in the last three games. Ray Rice rushed for 131 yards and a score last week and speedster Torrey Smith had TD receptions of 59 and 32 yards. He burned the Patriots for a pair of scoring passes earlier this season. Lewis has 32 tackles in the playoff games after returning from a 10-game injury absence, but this is not a typical Ravens defense. Last week's game marked the highest point total ever allowed by Baltimore in the postseason.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (13-4, 10-7 ATS): New England amassed a league-high 557 points during the regular season and had its sixth 40-point game last week. Gronkowski re-injured his broken forearm early in last week's victory, depriving Brady of a target that has accounted for 38 touchdowns in his first 43 NFL games. Still, Brady threw for 344 yards and three touchdowns to surpass Joe Montana for the most career postseason victories with 17. Brady had 335 yards and a scoring pass in Week 3, but he's had his struggles against the Ravens. He was intercepted twice in last season's AFC title game and failed to throw a TD pass for the first time in 36 games. New England unveiled another weapon on offense last week in running back Shane Vereen, who caught a pair of scoring passes and rushed for another TD while registering 124 total yards. TE Aaron Hernandez did not play in the early-season matchup and will provide a matchup issue for Baltimore's aging linebacking corps. The midseason acquisition of cornerback Aqib Talib has helped solidify an improving defense that limited five of the final six regular-season opponents to under 20 points.

TRENDS:

* Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in New England.
* Underdog is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Road team is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. New England owns a 14-3 home playoff record, the best mark in history for any team with a minimum of 10 games.

2. Baltimore handed New England one of those postseason home defeats with a 33-14 rout on Jan. 10, 2010.

3. Brady has thrown 41 career playoff touchdowns, trailing only Montana (45) and Brett Favre (44).

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