Serious Question...How Much Would You Hedge On This ???? Possible 33 K Payout

[Spark]

I'd guarantee myself 15k either way.

[GOLDENGREEK]

Did it a few more times..its actually 27,000..not 33,000

[GoldenDomer79]

Greek, Id like to say be a tough guy a ride it out but that would be dumb, I would say like 10 K on NE...

[savage1]

I always hedge 1/3 to 1/2 when I have one piece remaining in a parlay dependent on how I have been doing overall and how strongly I feel about the remaining game.

[plandbill]

yes I meant buy NE down, sorry , buy it down to 8.

[st bobby]

When I hedge I want to cover my losses and make a little. We are gambling here so lets still gamble. You can lose between 2-3 K. You can win 27k. Id hedge about 7-10k. you win decent if houston loses but if they win like you suspect you win up to 27k. Thats how Id do it.

Must say everytime during bowl games I hedged I won parlay outright. Well one time I didn't I bet more on the team I needed I lost. So hedge it and cover your ass but let the parlay be the big money winner. You hate to hedge 50/50 and have the parlay hit and give half of it back.

[bigjimt]

GG

First you need to accurately calculate your risk vs. reward for all wagers that only have the one remaining variable of Hou +9 (or more). Any other bets with other pending games should not be included in this calculation.

Im gonna assume conservative round numbers for my hypothetical example and guess you're risk 2k to win 25k.

To give myself the best chance to cover as many key numbers as possible I'd buy New England down to -6 -180 for potential middling purposes.

Now you need to determine how much profit you want to lock in. Many people above have mentioned taking around 1/3rd. That works out fairly well for this example if you want to lock down 8k of profit.

NE -6 -180. Risk 18000 to win 10000

Results:

NE wins by 10+ +8000
NE wins by 9. All of the parlays win at a lower percentage +10k on top
NE wins by 7or8. 25k + 10k = 35k
NE wins by 6. +25k
NE wins by 5 or less or Hou wins. +7000

Ok in my round number example you're on guaranteeing 7k but I think you get the idea. Feel free to manipulate the actual wager size to fit your comfort zone but I think NE -6 -180 gives you the best way of maximizing hedge/middle value.


Good luck. Hope this helps.



JimT

[soxx9]

Congrats & I would cover about 1/4 of it (8k)

[Ldawg]

When I hedge I want to cover my losses and make a little. We are gambling here so lets still gamble. You can lose between 2-3 K. You can win 27k. Id hedge about 7-10k. you win decent if houston loses but if they win like you suspect you win up to 27k. Thats how Id do it.

Must say everytime during bowl games I hedged I won parlay outright. Well one time I didn't I bet more on the team I needed I lost. So hedge it and cover your ass but let the parlay be the big money winner. You hate to hedge 50/50 and have the parlay hit and give half of it back.

st. bobby option is the way I would roll .... gl Greek

Opt. B do nothing and sell shares on BC

[GOLDENGREEK]

gg

first you need to accurately calculate your risk vs. Reward for all wagers that only have the one remaining variable of hou +9 (or more). Any other bets with other pending games should not be included in this calculation.

Im gonna assume conservative round numbers for my hypothetical example and guess you're risk 2k to win 25k.

To give myself the best chance to cover as many key numbers as possible i'd buy new england down to -6 -180 for potential middling purposes.

Now you need to determine how much profit you want to lock in. Many people above have mentioned taking around 1/3rd. That works out fairly well for this example if you want to lock down 8k of profit.

Ne -6 -180. Risk 18000 to win 10000

results:

Ne wins by 10+ +8000
ne wins by 9. All of the parlays win at a lower percentage +10k on top
ne wins by 7or8. 25k + 10k = 35k
ne wins by 6. +25k
ne wins by 5 or less or hou wins. +7000

ok in my round number example you're on guaranteeing 7k but i think you get the idea. Feel free to manipulate the actual wager size to fit your comfort zone but i think ne -6 -180 gives you the best way of maximizing hedge/middle value.


Good luck. Hope this helps.



Jimt

great stuff... I did take any wagers that had other plays ( seattle , under houston out ) ...the 2000/ 27,000 is accurate

I APPRECIATTE THE TIME YOU TOOK THE HELP OUT..THANK U

[GOLDENGREEK]

Everyone has been great..thanks for all the advice...a little less that 4 hrs to decide...right now im thinking of hedging 8000-10,000..halfbuy down to 6.5 or 7 and the rest at -9

[SteinDallas]

You thought there was Value in Houston or you wouldnt of bet it. I seee No Reason Here to Hedge cant middle cant really buy point to help. Your up a bundle this is when you turn the light off on them. Or the Opposite and bett 30k on NE if you think the value has changed.

[st bobby]

Lets go Texans. One more half for GG big payoff.

[bigjimt]

I cannot tell a lie.

I'm rooting for a NE 6 7 8 or 9 point victory without a single dollar of my own money wagered in the hopes that GG followed my advice/analysis.

[PhilJr]

So what did you end up doing?