NFL Trends and Indexes - Division Round (Saturday, January 12 - Sunday, January 13)

[Udog]

Where the action is: NFL Divisional Round line moves

Action on this weekend’s NFL Divisional Round playoff games is picking up as game time draws near. We talk with BetDSI.com about where sharp and public money are playing as well as where the line could end up by kickoff.

Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos (-9.5, 46)

According to BetDSI.com, public and sharp money is split on this early AFC game. The betting public is siding with the Broncos at home but wiseguy action has jumped on the Ravens. While the money is balanced on both sides, Denver is taking more bets at a 2-to-1 pace. Sportsbooks are also seeing a lot of Broncos teaser action, which has been the case all season.

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (-2.5, 44.5)

Most books have remained steady on the field-goal spread, not wanting to move off the key number. Some books are reporting one-sided money on the Packers but BetDSI.com is getting hit with late 49ers money from the sharps. According to their oddsmakers, San Francisco is outnumbers Green Bay at 3-to-1 in terms of action and bets placed.

Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons (-3, 45.5)

This spread was available as low as Falcons -1 but has since climbed as high as a field goal at some markets. The Seahawks’ move to +3 has attracted some added wagers from the wiseguys and has the bet count very balanced heading into the weekend. Atlanta, however, has the edge in action, outnumbering Seattle at 2-to-1 when it comes to the money.

Houston Texans at New England Patriots (-9.5, 47.5)

Despite a lopsided loss at New England in Week 14, sharps have sided with the Texans since opening. The bet count and action wagered is fairly split between Houston and New England, but the Patriots have grabbed a lot more teaser money. According to BetDSI.com, “bettors have gone teaser crazy on the Patriots in this matchup, taking the line to the -2 to 2.5 ranges”. There are also plenty of New England moneyline bets (-435) tied into parlays.

[Udog]

NFL

Division Round

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Seahawks at Falcons: What bettors need to know
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Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons (-3, 45.5)

Since the Atlanta Falcons made Matt Ryan their franchise quarterback, they have been synonymous with incredible success at home. While that has continued this season, the Falcons are more focused on ending another pattern that has emerged since Ryan and head coach Mike Smith came on board in 2008: an inability to win in the postseason. Top-seeded Atlanta has another chance to rectify its recent playoff struggles when it hosts the red-hot Seattle Seahawks on Sunday in the NFC divisional round. The Falcons are 0-3 in the playoffs over the past four seasons and were destroyed in their last two postseason appearances by a combined 72-23.

Seattle arrives in Atlanta as the team that no one wants to play. The Seahawks have ripped off six consecutive victories and turned in an impressive performance last weekend, erasing an early 14-0 deficit in Washington to eliminate the Redskins 24-14. Seattle has allowed the fewest points in the league (15.3 per game) and has shaken its reputation as a team unable to win away from CenturyLink Field by prevailing in its last three road games. The Falcons have won the past three meetings.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE: Atlanta opened as low as a 1-point favorite and has been bet up to -3. The total has moved from 45.5 to 46.

CONSENSUS: 53 percent of Covers Consensus picks are on the Falcons while 51 percent are on the over.

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (12-5, 12-5 ATS): Seattle did not deviate from its game plan despite the early two-touchdown deficit at Washington and rallied behind rookie quarterback Russell Wilson, who threw for 187 yards and a touchdown and ran for 67 yards on eight carries. Wilson continues to play with the poise of a veteran, throwing 17 touchdown passes and only two interceptions in the past nine games. He has the luxury of a sledgehammer behind him in running back Marshawn Lynch, who rushed for a season-high 132 yards and a touchdown. Lynch, who finished third in the league with 1,590 yards, has reeled off five straight 100-yard games and 11 overall this season. He had only 24 yards on eight carries in last season's 30-28 loss to the Falcons in Seattle. The defense suffered a huge blow with an injury to DE Chris Clemons, who leads the team with 11.5 sacks.

ABOUT THE FALCONS (13-3, 9-6-1 ATS): Atlanta won its first seven home games before falling to Tampa Bay in a meaningless regular-season finale. That gave Ryan a 33-6 career record at the Georgia Dome. The former No. 3 overall pick posted career highs with 4,719 yards and 32 touchdowns passes and has perhaps the league's most complete receiving corps at his disposal. Roddy White and deep threat Julio Jones each surpassed 1,100 yards and combined for 17 scoring passes while ageless tight end Tony Gonzalez hauled in 93 receptions for 930 yards and eight touchdowns. The running game ranked just 29th in the league with an average of 87.3 yards. Michael Turner posted only two 100-yard games and ran for more than 52 yards once in the second half of the season. Atlanta's defense surrendered an average of 18.7 points and will hope sack leader John Abraham (10) is recovered from an ankle injury.

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Underdog is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Over is 5-1 in Seahawks last six playoff games.
* Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their last four playoff games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Seattle has outscored the opposition 217-74 during its six-game winning streak.

2. The Falcons have scored at least 30 points in each of their last three wins over the Seahawks, including the narrow victory at Seattle last season.

3. The Seahawks signed PK Ryan Longwell to replace the injured Steven Hauschka.


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[Udog]

NFL

Division Round

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Texans at Patriots: What bettors need to know
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Houston Texans at New England Patriots (-9.5, 48.5)

The Houston Texans were comfortably sailing along atop the AFC before meeting the New England Patriots last month. A lopsided setback led to two more losses in their final three games. The AFC South-champion Texans rebounded with a 19-13 triumph over sixth-seeded Cincinnati in last week's wild-card match, setting up a return date on Sunday with Tom Brady and the second-seeded Patriots in Foxboro, Mass.

Houston coach Gary Kubiak will need to have a better plan for Brady, who dissected his defense for 296 yards and four touchdowns on a national stage as New England cruised to a 42-14 victory on Dec. 10. Should the AFC East-champion Patriots emerge victorious on Sunday, Brady will surpass boyhood idol Joe Montana for the most postseason wins (17) by a starting quarterback. Brady is 10-2 at home during the postseason, but just 6-6 in his last 12 overall starts in the playoffs.

TV: 4:30 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE: New England opened at -9 and has been bet up to -9.5 while the total opened at 48.5, dropped to 47.5 and has been bet up to 49.

CONSENSUS: 52 percent of Covers Consensus plays are on New England while 69 percent are on the over.

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for fog and a chance of showers later in the evening with temperatures in the mid 40s. Winds are expected to blow south at 6 mph.

ABOUT THE TEXANS (13-4, 10-7 ATS): Arian Foster scored the game's lone touchdown last week and compiled 174 total yards from scrimmage (140 rushing, 34 receiving). Foster's dual threat was rendered nearly obsolete after the Patriots breezed to an early 21-0 lead. The electric runner was held to 46 yards on the ground. Houston would be wise to feed Foster the ball on Sunday; the Texans are 8-0 when he rushes for at least 100 yards.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (12-4, 9-7 ATS): Brady isn't shy about distributing the ball as he guides the league's highest-scoring team. Wes Welker, who had 118 catches for 1,354 yards this season, was held to just three receptions in the teams' earlier meeting. Rob Gronkowski, who was a spectator against the Texans earlier this season, led the Patriots with 11 touchdowns. Fellow tight end Aaron Hernandez, who had two scores versus Houston, and wideout Brandon Lloyd could be the wild cards in the high-octane attack.

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Home team is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Patriots are 1-8 ATS in their last nine playoff games.
* Under is 7-3 in Texans last 10 road games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. New England led the NFL with a plus-24 turnover differential. Houston was second in the AFC with a plus-12 margin.

2. Houston stud WR Andre Johnson mustered nearly 100 yards per contest this season, and fell just five yards shy of that average on eight catches versus the Patriots in Week 14.

3. New England coach Bill Belichick needs one more postseason win to move past Joe Gibbs (17) for third place on the NFL's all-time list. Tom Landry recorded 20 victories while Don Shula is second with 19.


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