Divisional Playoff Picks w/a big play

[roccodean]

1-5*

1* 6.5 point tease Denv -2.5/Seat +9 (-120)

Adding SF as my big play, waiting on the line

analysis on all plays to follow

[jt4545]

good luck

[CashMoney]

That teaser is cash Rocco was looking at the same one trying lock my money on something for sure and that looks like the for sure cash!!!!!!!

[roccodean]

3* SF over GB (Possible 4* Upgrade)
As of now (Wednesday) the line is SF -3 but +110, it may drop so I would wait to try to get it under 3
Im going to make this simple...SF is a much better team than Green Bay! Green Bay has been overrated all year and now is the perfect time to take advantage. San Fran is a tough, physical team that is going to beat up the finesse team that GB is. GB can't stop the run (4.5 YPR, 26th during reg season) and that plays directly into SF's hands because they average an amazing 5.1 YPR (3rd during reg season). With Kaepernick's run ability this will put further pressure in GB;s poor run D. GB's strength is Rodgers and their pass game, but SF has one of the best pass D's in the league (6.1 YPPA, 2nd during regular season). Also, GB has allowed 51 sacks this year (2nd most during reg season) and SF will be knocking Rodgers all over the place. The teams that Green Bay had trouble with this year are the physical teams that are going to body you off the line and knock Rodgers down (Seattle, NYG, SF). GB can't run (3.9 YPR) and they definitely won't be able to run this week against a SF D that allows only 3.7 YPR (3rd). The biggest concern of the game is this being Kaepernicks first game, but he as proven to be an above average QB and all he has to do is not make mistakes, which he has also proven to do. He has thrown an INT only 1.3% of his passes this year; compare that to Rogers who has thrown an INT 1.4% this year (he has the lowest of all time at 1.7% for his career) and Manning at 1.8% this year. My calculated line is SF -5.5, but Vegas lowered it because they know the public will be on GB because they are a popular team. Gimme the Niners!!!!

1* Tease: Denver -2.5/Seattle +9 (Possible 2* upgrade)
If your book has -9 on Denver I rec'd a 6.5 point tease to get it under 3 (-120)
Denver
Balt has an average team and face Denver, who is the best team in the AFC (and 2nd best in the NFL). Balt won't be able to score vs Denver who allows 3.6 YPR (2nd during regular season) and 6.4 YPPA (5th during regular season). Balt's pass D is average (7 PPA) and will allow Manning to have a big game. This line is accurate (my calculated line is 9.6).
SEA
Seattle is much better than ATL, but I am being safe and teasing them because of motivation. Everybody is doubting ATL and everyone is picking SEA (like Cin/Hou last week) and I think ATL will be playing with a chip on their shoulder. That said, Seattle's numbers are WAY better than ATL. Seattle is 5th in run O and 4th in pass O. They will face an ATL D that is terrible allowing 4.8 YPR (29th) and 7.4 YPPA (20th). Defensively, Seattle allows only 6.2 YPPA (3rd during regular season). My calculated line is Seattle -1.4. If you take Seattle you are basically saying they will win the game, and the numbers support this. But I can't go against my gut that says ATL will play above their stats and keep this close and maybe even win, bit it won't be a blowout..so give me the tease.

[3rdmckid]

bump

[Kaptain]

gl today and tomorrow

[roccodean]

thanks guys
keepng SF 3*

Seat scaring me...too many people doubting ATL. If den side of tease hits might take atl -2.5 for half teaser to try middle

[Sirporkie]

GL Rocco

[roccodean]

Glad i hit big play on SF...good luck whoever you take

NE vs. Hou

No Play, but lean Houston

This line is inflated because Houston got blown out at NE a few weeks ago (that line closed at 5.5). Last game, Houston was down 21-0 before you blinked. This time I think it will be different and they will be able to establish the run and hence take advantage of NE's weak pass D (allows 7.7 YPPA, 28th during regular season). I think Houston's D is capable of holding NE to under their season average (nobody can stop NE completel). Houston allowed 4 YPR (9th) and 6.7 YPPA (9th). NE schedule was very soft this year. The only teams they beat that made the playoffs are this Houston team, Denver (week 5 when Denv wasn't nearly as good as they are now), and Indy (who were the worst statistical playoff team in years). NE was 3-3 vs. teams with a winning record this year. I lean Houston, but not making a play because there is not enough value (my calc line is NE -8.5).