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**Udog** · 01-01-2013, 10:31 PM

NFL odds: Wild Card Weekend opening line report

The dust has settled after 17 weeks on the NFL gridiron and now it’s time to separate the men from the boys.

Three of the four matchups have been determined for Wild Card Weekend and oddsmakers are scrambling to set their lines. We chatted with Peter Korner, founder of Nevada-based oddsmaking service The Sports Club, about the opening odds for this weekend’s playoff games.

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-8, 46)

Adrian Peterson’s career-high 34 carries led the Vikings to their fourth straight victory (4-0 ATS) Sunday to set up a rematch with Green Bay at Lambeau Field. Despite Minnesota’s hot run, Korner’s team of oddsmakers decided on a suggested spread of Green Bay -8 with home-field advantage in mind.

“We pumped it up a little,” Korner told Covers. “This is going to be a tough cover for Green Bay.”

Korner’s crew also suggested a total of 46, but that number could plummet rapidly depending on the weather conditions at Lambeau.

Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens (-4.5, 47)

This game features two teams heading in different directions. The Ravens stumbled into the playoffs, dropping four of their last five games while the Colts finished strong with victories over the Chiefs and Texans.

Korner’s team had this game between Ravens -3 and -6, but settled right in the middle at -4.5.

“We didn’t want to give bettors a deal,” says Korner. “Indy is not as good on the road.”

The heart and soul of the Baltimore defense will be back to pester Colts QB Andrew Luck in his playoff debut. Linebacker Ray Lewis (triceps) was activated from IR prior to Week 17 and will suit up for this one.

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans (-5, 45)

The Texans had multiple opportunities to clinch a bye, but back-to-back losses dropped them to the No. 3 seed in the AFC to set up a date with the streaking Bengals.

“Cincinnati is hotter than hell,” notes Korner. “This one would have been Houston -7 or -8 a few weeks ago. But we had to account for how well the Bengals are playing, so we settled at Texans -5.”

The Bengals have picked up wins in seven of their last eight games, covering the spread in each of those victories.

**Udog** · 01-01-2013, 10:31 PM

NFL Wild Card Round betting trends to watch for

Home cooking. It used to be a solid handicapping edge during the playoffs.

Not so anymore.

For the longest time backing home teams in the NFL postseason has been a solid moneymaker, going 167-135-6 (55.1 percent) dating back to 1980.

Today, however, that would be a mistake as the success of home teams in the playoffs has dissolved quicker than an Alka Seltzer in a cold glass of water.

A closer look finds home teams just 113-102-5 ATS (52.7 percent) since the 1990 season and, even worse, 64-66-1 ATS (49.2 percent) since 2000. Thus, like the economy, NFL playoff hosts have fallen on hard times.

The key today to winning in the playoffs is breaking the games down into rounds. And in doing so it’s wise to remember the linemakers have made the visiting teams more attractive than ever before.

Let’s take a look into opening round time-tested theories involving unrested, No. 3 or lower seeded teams, in playoff games.

Note: All results are ATS (Against The Spread) and are since 1980, unless noted otherwise.

Stun Guns

Teams in NFL Wild Card round contests playing off a straight-up season-ending loss as a favorite tend to bounce back, going 21-11-1 ATS - including 10-3 ATS at home.

This year finds the Texans and Packers return home looking to right themselves from road favorite losses last weekend.

Division Downers

Wild card road teams have a difficult time after dueling a division opponent in their season-ending finale, going 20-40-1 ATS – including 0-4 ATS last year.

Send these highwaymen out as dogs of more than three points and the task worsens as they are 4-30 SU and 9-25 ATS.

Not a good sign for the Bengals, Colts and Vikings this week.

ATS Diabetes

Like kids in a candy store, NFL Wild Card teams playing off huge regular season wins tend to crash and burn in these playoff openers.

Teams off a SU underdog win are just 11-23 SU and 13-20-1 ATS, including 3-13 SU and 4-12 ATS if the total in the game is set at more than 41 points.

So long Vikings.

In a similar vein, teams suffer from more than a sugar rush in opening-round playoff games if they managed to they beat the spread by 12 or points, going just 5-15-1 ATS when on the road during this round.

The Colts look to throw a show this Sunday.

**Udog** · 01-01-2013, 10:32 PM

NFL
Dunkel

Wild Card Round

Cincinnati at Houston
The Bengals look to build on their 4-0 ATS record in their last 4 road games. Cincinnati is the pick (+4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Texans favored by only 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+4 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

SATURDAY, JANUARY 5

Game 101-102: Cincinnati at Houston (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 135.851; Houston 138.397
Dunkel Line: Houston by 2 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Houston by 4 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+4 1/2); Over

Game 103-104: Minnesota at Green Bay (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 134.082; Green Bay 144.563
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 10 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 8; 46
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-8); Under

SUNDAY, JANUARY 6

Game 105-106: Indianapolis at Baltimore (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 131.150; Baltimore 133.812
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 2 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 6 1/2; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (+6 1/2); Under

Game 107-108: Seattle at Washington (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 141.159; Washington 142.642
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Seattle by 3; 45
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+3); Over

**Udog** · 01-01-2013, 10:32 PM

NFL
Long Sheet

Wild Card Round

Saturday, January 5

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CINCINNATI (10 - 6) at HOUSTON (12 - 4) - 1/5/2013, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 111-143 ATS (-46.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
HOUSTON is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 20-6 ATS (+13.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 34-16 ATS (+16.4 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 2-0 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 2-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (10 - 6) at GREEN BAY (11 - 5) - 1/5/2013, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 33-20 ATS (+11.0 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 33-20 ATS (+11.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 56-34 ATS (+18.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 4-2 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 5-1 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, January 6

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INDIANAPOLIS (11 - 5) at BALTIMORE (10 - 6) - 1/6/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-0 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 1-0 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SEATTLE (11 - 5) at WASHINGTON (10 - 6) - 1/6/2013, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 53-81 ATS (-36.1 Units) off a division game since 1992.
SEATTLE is 22-43 ATS (-25.3 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
SEATTLE is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 1-0 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 1-0 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 01-01-2013, 10:32 PM

NFL
Short Sheet

Wild Card Round

Saturday, January 5, 2013

Cincinnati at Houston, 4:30 ET NBC
Cincinnati: 5-17 ATS after allowing 200+ rushing yards
Houston: 18-7 ATS vs. conference opponents

Minnesota at Green Bay, 8:00 ET NBC
Minnesota: 2-12 ATS away off a home win by 3 points or less
Green Bay: 10-2 ATS vs. division opponents

Sunday, January 6, 2013

Indianapolis at Baltimore, 1:00 ET CBS
Indianapolis: 7-1 ATS after winning 3 of their last 4 games
Baltimore: 0-6 ATS at home off a road loss

Seattle at Washington, 4:30 ET FOX
Seattle: 14-28 ATS off a home division win
Washington: 7-0 ATS off a home game

**Udog** · 01-01-2013, 10:33 PM

NFL

Wild Card Round

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Trend Report
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Saturday, January 5

4:30 PM
CINCINNATI vs. HOUSTON
Cincinnati is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 6 games on the road
Houston is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

8:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. GREEN BAY
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 17 of Green Bay's last 23 games at home
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

Sunday, January 6

1:00 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. BALTIMORE
Indianapolis is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Indianapolis is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Baltimore's last 9 games when playing Indianapolis
Baltimore is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indianapolis

4:30 PM
SEATTLE vs. WASHINGTON
Seattle is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games
Washington is 7-14 SU in its last 21 games at home
Washington is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Seattle

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**Udog** · 01-03-2013, 09:38 AM

Where the action is: NFL Wild Card midweek line moves

The NFL Wild Card weekend odds have been up since late Sunday and books have been busy taking bets and making adjustments on the four postseason matchups. We chat with Aron Black of Bet365.com about the NFL betting patterns heading into the weekend:

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans – Open: -5, Move: -4, Move: -4.5

Early money pushed this spread off -5 and as low as -4 at some books before coming back up to settle at -4.5. According to Black, the money is very even with a slight lean toward Houston. However, the Texans' recent struggles have scared away plenty of bettors.

“Not as many buying in as they would have if Houston had just an average finish to season, which probably would have translated to a line closer to -6 or -6.5,” Black told Covers.

The sharp money has mostly sided with the home team and Black expects the public to jump on Houston as well, moving the line back to -5 or even -5.5 before Saturday.

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers – Open: -7.5, Move: -9.5

Depending on where you play, the Vikings are anywhere between 8 and 9.5-point underdogs in this rematch of Week 17’s thrilling finale.

At Bet365.com, Black reports a slight lean toward Minnesota +8 from the betting public. He believes the classic Lambeau Field environment will play a big part in the outcome of Saturday’s game. The extended forecast is calling for cloudy skies and temperatures in the low 20s.

“Conditions will be a factor in this one,” says Black. “A dome team going to Lambeau is always going to favor Green Bay. Sharp money has been swerving this one so far and I can see the line dropping a touch to Minnesota.”

Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens – Open: -7, Move: -6.5

The Colts weren’t supposed to be playing in January but here they are, taking on the Ravens in the AFC Wild Card round. Action on the spread has been split for the most part but books are seeing money come in on Indianapolis’ moneyline (+235), expecting more surprises from this team.

“Indianapolis has obviously been a surprise given how they were year last, but they have had a great season from rookie QB Andrew Luck and the bettors are at least split so far on who’s going to cover,” says Black. “Not sure this one will move much, but weather on the day may force something.”

The forecast for Sunday’s early game is calling for cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid 30s with winds blowing WNW at 11 mph in Baltimore – a far cry from the cozy climate of the domed Lucas Oil Stadium.

Seattle Seahawks at Washington Redskins – Open: +2.5, Move: +3

Early action on the Seahawks has this spread sitting on the key number of 3 and Black says it will take a lot to move off the field goal before Sunday night. So far, action on Seattle is coming in at a 2-to-1 ratio and books are juggling the juice heading toward the weekend.

This game throws some mystery at bettors with two rookie quarterbacks leading the charge and its the only game this weekend where the home team is the underdog. Both Russell Wilson and Robert Griffin III have played beyond their years, but Black feels Wilson has been the better of the two down the stretch.

“A lot has been written and lots of press given to Griffin and how good he has been this season. But looking at the numbers, Wilson at least holds his own and has had much better numbers leading down to the end of the season,” he says. “This game looks to be possibly the most exciting game of the wild card games.”

**Udog** · 01-03-2013, 11:18 PM

NFL poolies betting cheat sheet: Wild Card Weekend

Cincinnati at Houston (-4.5, 43)

The Bengals won seven of their final eight games to secure consecutive postseason appearances for the first time since the 1981-82 seasons. Cincinnati's defense has been sensational in the second half of the campaign, not allowing more than 20 points and limiting six of its last eight opponents to 13 points or fewer. The Texans have dropped two straight SU and ATS and quarterback Matt Schaub has thrown only one TD pass against three interceptions in the past four games. The Bengals are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall and have covered the number in their past four road games.

Minnesota at Green Bay (-9.5, 46)

The Packers have won 26 of their last 28 games (including the postseason) at Lambeau Field. They are just 2-4 in their last six home playoff games, however. Aaron Rodgers threw four touchdown passes and amassed a season-high 365 yards for Green Bay in last week’s setback to the Vikings and has been at his best down the stretch, totaling 10 touchdowns and no interceptions in the Packers' final three regular-season games. Stopping Adrian Peterson will be the No. 1 goal for the Green Bay defense. The MVP candidate shredded the Packers for 409 yards in two meetings this season. The Vikings are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.

Indianapolis at Baltimore (-6.5, 47)

The Ravens, who have dropped four of their last five games, are fueled by their own inspiration after future Hall of Fame linebacker Ray Lewis announced he will retire at the conclusion of the season and could be potentially playing in the final game of his career. Wide receiver Anquan Boldin will also be back on the field after his one-week hiatus with a bruised shoulder. Colts rookie quarterback Andrew Luck is cruising into the postseason on a high. The top overall pick has thrown five touchdowns without an interception in his last three games - and the Colts have won nine of 11 following their 28-16 triumph over AFC South champion Houston. The Colts are 8-0 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Ravens, but keep in mind those covers were during the Peyton Manning era in Indianapolis.

Seattle at Washington (3, 46)

The Redskins will host a playoff game for the first time in 13 years on Sunday. Washington has won seven consecutive contests SU and ATS, while Seattle enters on a five-game SU winning streak (4-1 ATS). Both teams feature potent rushing attacks, but the Seahawks have the edge on defense. Seattle allowed an average of 321.6 yards for the league's fourth-best mark while Washington allowed an average of 390.8 for the NFL's fourth-worst. Seattle is 6-0 ATS in its last six games against a team with a winning record.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-05-2013, 02:49 AM

Bengals at Texans: What bettors need to know

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans (-4.5, 43)

A stunning late-season swoon cost the Houston Texans what appeared to be a certain first-round bye in the playoffs and put them in the position of having to host the surging Cincinnati Bengals on Saturday in the AFC wild-card round. The Texans were tied for the best record in football and were in the driver's seat for the top seed and home field throughout the playoffs before stumbling down the stretch with losses in three of their final four games. That included back-to-back defeats to Minnesota and Indianapolis to close out the regular season.

The Bengals, on the other hand, had little margin for error after a four-game losing streak left them wobbling at 3-5 at the season's midway point. Cincinnati regrouped to win four straight and seven of its final eight to secure consecutive postseason appearances for the first time since the 1981-82 seasons. The game will be a rematch of last season's first-round meeting in Houston, won 31-10 by the Texans.

TV: 4:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE: The LVH opened the Texans as 5-point favorites and the line has bounced around between Houston -4 and -5 all week at most shops.

CONSENSUS: Nearly 52 percent of Covers Consensus players like the Texans to cover and 58 percent are on the over.

ABOUT THE BENGALS (10-6): Cincinnati's defense has been sensational in the second half of the season, not allowing more than 20 points and limiting six of its last eight opponents to 13 points or fewer. The only defeat in the final eight games came on a last-second field goal to Dallas. The Bengals ranked second in the league with 51 sacks and showed their defensive mettle by winning at Pittsburgh 13-10 in Week 16 to clinch a playoff slot. Cincinnati rested many of its starters in the regular-season finale, but has questions about its running game after 1,000-yard rusher BenJarvus Green-Ellis was held to 15 yards by the Steelers. He is also dealing with a sore hamstring. Second-year quarterback Andy Dalton has tossed only two TD passes in the past three games but, like Schaub, has an elite wideout in A.J. Green, who registered 97 receptions and 11 touchdowns.

ABOUT THE TEXANS (12-4): Houston managed a single offensive touchdown the past two games in squandering a pair of chances to sew up a first-round bye. But while many point to the 42-14 beating at New England on Dec. 10 as the start of the Texans' skid, they have been inconsistent for the past seven weeks, beginning with consecutive overtime wins over Jacksonville and Detroit. Quarterback Matt Schaub has thrown only one TD pass against three interceptions in the past four games. WR Andre Johnson has been the only reliable target in that span, hauling in 38 catches to finish the season with 112 receptions and 1,598 yards. Running back Arian Foster rushed for 1,424 yards and scored a league-high 17 touchdowns. Defensive end J.J. Watt had 20 1/2 sacks to anchor a defense that was the league's best for much of the season but allowed at least 28 points in four of the last seven games.

TRENDS:

* Bengals are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.
* Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.
* Under is 8-0 in Bengals’ last eight games following a win.
* Under is 4-1 in Texans’ last five games overall.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Foster rushed for 153 yards and two touchdowns in Houston's playoff win over the Bengals last season.

2. Dalton, who was picked off three times in the postseason loss to Houston, threw 11 interceptions in the first eight games this season but only five in the final eight.

3. The Texans beat the Bengals twice last season, clinching the AFC South title on a last-second 20-19 win at Cincinnati.

**Udog** · 01-05-2013, 09:26 AM

NFL

Wild Card Round

Saturday, January 5

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Vikings at Packers: What bettors need to know
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Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay (-9.5, 46)

Just six days after an instant classic in the regular-season finale, the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings will meet in the first round of the playoffs on Saturday night. The Vikings used a last-second field goal to steal the win on Sunday at home and grab the final wild-card spot in the NFC. This time, the Packers will have the home field advantage as the No. 3 seed and NFC North champion.

Vikings running back Adrian Peterson came up nine yards short of beating Eric Dickerson’s season record but made the play when it counted on Sunday, breaking through on a 26-yard run to set up Blair Walsh’s 29-yard field goal in the final seconds. Aaron Rodgers threw four touchdown passes and amassed a season-high 365 yards for Green Bay in the setback and has been at his best down the stretch, totaling 10 touchdowns and no interceptions in the Packers' final three regular-season games.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE: Books are seeing heavy action on the Vikings that has moved the line to Green Bay -7.5 at some offshores.

CONSENSUS: Nearly 68 percent of Covers Consensus players like the Vikings to cover and 65 percent are on the over.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-20s with a slight chance of freezing rain. Winds will blow out of the west at 5 mph.

ABOUT THE VIKINGS (10-6): Minnesota needed to win its final four games of the regular season just to reach the playoffs and knocked off playoff contenders Chicago, Houston and Green Bay in those final weeks. Peterson carried it 34 times for 199 yards in Week 17 and averaged 159.8 yards over the final 10 games of the regular season despite being less than a year removed from major knee surgery. While Peterson’s performance has been consistent, quarterback Christian Ponder’s effort in the finale was more of a surprise. The second-year starter passed for 234 yards and a season-high three touchdowns without an interception for a career-best 120.2 rating. The Vikings have some big questions on defense, as cornerback Antoine Winfield left Sunday’s game with a hand injury and is questionable. Rodgers threw for three scores with Winfield off the field.

ABOUT THE PACKERS (11-5): Green Bay did not have the same motivation as Minnesota last week, with the Packers' postseason spot already assured. They could have earned a first-round bye with a victory, but the “win or go home” mentality that will be there this week was not on display in Minneapolis. Rodgers is working with a battered receiving corps with Randall Cobb (ankle) questionable and Jordy Nelson (hamstring) limited. Greg Jennings caught a pair of touchdown passes last week in his best game of the season and could get a lot more attention from the Minnesota secondary on Saturday. Stopping Peterson will be the No. 1 goal for the defense. The MVP candidate shredded Green Bay for 409 yards in two meetings this season.

TRENDS:

* Vikings are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.
* Packers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a loss.
* Vikings are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings in Green Bay.
* Over is 4-0 in Packers’ last four playoff home games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. This will mark just the second meeting between the two division rivals in the playoffs. The Vikings won a wild-card game at Lambeau Field in 2004.

2. The Packers have won 26 of their last 28 games (including the postseason) at Lambeau Field. They are just 2-4 in their last six home playoff games, however, including a loss to the New York Giants in the divisional round last season.

3. Minnesota is tied for 27th in the NFL with just 10 interceptions - three by Winfield.

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**Udog** · 01-05-2013, 09:28 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wild Card Round

Bengals (10-6) @ Texans (12-4)—Houston blew #1 seed and first round bye with losses last two weeks; only once in last nine games have Texans won field position battle- they have only three takeaways in last four games (-2). Cincy won/covered seven of last eight games, losing to Dallas in game they controlled but screwed up late; they lost 31-10 here in this same exact game LY. In their history, Bengals are 0-5 in road playoff games; they’ve allowed 17 or less points in their last eight wins. This is a team that lost four games in row in Weeks 5-9, all games with spread of 4 or less points. Cincy has +11 turnover ratio in last 10 games, after being -7 in first six (+4 for year). Bengals are 6-2 on road this year (lost at Ravens in Week 1, Browns in Week 6); they’re 4-3 vs spread as underdogs this year, 3-1 at home. Houston lost three of last four games, but is 5-3 as home favorite this year, winning at home by 20-24-30-12-6-12 points, with losses to Packers/Vikings. AFC North road underdogs are 4-6 vs spread outside its division. AFC South home favorites are 5-2. Seven of last eight Bengal games, four of last five Texan games stayed under the total.

Vikings (10-6) @ Packers (11-5)—Home team won both series games this year, both played in December, with Minnesota running ball for 240-217 yards in those games; Vikings won/covered last four games, all as underdogs- they ran ball for average of 203 ypg in last five games, behind solid OL and behind prolific RB Peterson, but their problem is this: Minnesota is 3-5 on road this year, with all three wins in domed stadiums; they’re 0-4 outdoors this year, losing by 12-10-18-9 points, and their QB is Florida State alum who is suspect to make big plays in winter weather if needed. Vikings lost five of last six vs Packers, losing last three visits here, by 4-38-9 points. Green Bay blew bye with 37-34 loss to Vikings last week, fifth time this year (1-4) Pack didn’t have takeaway. Both teams had trouble getting other off field on 3rd down this year; in their meetings, Packers were 15-29 on third down, Minnesota 12-24. Underdogs are 4-3 vs spread last seven times divisional foes met in this round. Home favorites are 4-3 vs spread in NFC North divisional games; NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 26-29-2. Average total in last nine series games is 53.1.

Colts (11-5) @ Ravens (10-6)—Lot of sidebars in this game; Colts coming back to Baltimore (they’re 9-3 vs Ravens, winning eight of last nine meetings, three of last four played here), former Indy coach Caldwell is now calling plays for Baltimore, former Raven DC Pagano replaced Caldwell as Colts’ head coach, returning from bout with leukemia to resume coaching last week, Ray Lewis’ pending retirement after a great 17-year career. Baltimore ended 8-game series losing streak with 24-10 win over Colts here LY, but they limp into playoffs, losing four of last five games; they fired their OC in December, rare occurrence for team with winning record- they were actually underdogs in last four games. Ravens are 2-4 as home favorite this year, winning at home by 31-1-7-2-35-19 points (lost to Steelers/Broncos). Indy has issues; they allowed 352 rushing yards at woeful Chiefs two weeks ago, but in storybook season (they were 1-15 LY), have overcome all odds behind rookie QB Luck. AFC North home favorites are 5-8 vs spread; AFC South road underdogs are 6-9. Colts won five of last six games, are 6-4 vs spread as underdogs this year, 2-4 away from home.

Seahawks (11-5) @ Redskins (10-6)—Since 2006, road favorites in Wild Card round (non-divisional winner favored over divisional winner) are 3-5 vs spread. Two rookie QBs, two hot teams. Seattle won five in row, seven of last eight games; they had scored 58-50-42 points in consecutive games before Rams challenged them in 20-13 Seattle win last week. Should be noted that Seahawks are 2-5 in true road games this year (beat Bills in Toronto), winning 16-12 at Carolina, 23-17 in OT at Chicago, game that ultimately cost Lovie Smith his job, so Hawks are not stellar road team (lost at Arizona-Rams-Lions-Miami). Washington won/covered last seven games, pulling out win last Sunday night over rival Cowboys in what was essentially a play-in game; they’ve run ball for average of 180.6 ypg over last five games. Redskins won six of last eight games with Seattle, but two losses came in ‘05/’07 playoffs, both played out west. Seattle is +12 in turnovers in last four games (+12 for season), Washington is +10 in last six games, +16 for season. NFC West road faves are 3-2 vs spread. NFC East favorites are 6-15 vs spread, 5-9 at home. Five of last six Seattle games, three of last four Redskin games went over the total.

**Udog** · 01-05-2013, 09:30 AM

NFL line moves: Saturday's wild card games

The NFL Wild Card weekend odds have been up since late Sunday and books have been busy taking bets and making adjustments on the postseason matchups. We chat with Aron Black of Bet365.com and get an update on the NFL betting patterns heading into Saturday.

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans – Open: -5, Move: -4.5

Bet365 is getting interest in the Bengals straight up from bettors and expects the Texans to be a popular moneyline parlay bet down the stretch.

“I think more people will look at Houston as the team they were before the limp to the end of the season,” Black told Covers.

The Texans are seeing more action on the spread the last few days and that trend is expected to continue through Saturday.

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers – Open: -8, Move: -7.5

The Vikings were getting heavy attention from bettors throughout the week, but now the action has leveled out on both teams for the spread. Green Bay is drawing heavy action on the moneyline, but books are paying close attention to the weather forecast tomorrow night and will be adjusting totals accordingly.

“The move down to Green Bay -7.5 is not big off -8, but it will coincide with the total drop if the weather forecast calls for freezing rain,” says Black. “That move may not come until much closer to kick off.”

The total currently sits at 46, and forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-20s with a slight chance of freezing rain at Lambeau Field on Saturday night.

**Udog** · 01-06-2013, 01:05 AM

NFL

Wild Card Round

Sunday, January 6

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Colts at Ravens: What bettors need to know
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Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens (-7, 47)

Chuck Pagano's battle against leukemia has been one of the most inspirational storylines of the NFL season. For the visiting Indianapolis Colts to continue their spirited campaign, they'll need to upend Pagano's former team in the fourth-seeded Baltimore Ravens during Sunday's wild-card matchup. The Ravens are fueled by their own inspiration after future Hall of Fame linebacker Ray Lewis announced that he will retire at the conclusion of the season.

Baltimore enters the contest having lost four of its last five, although coach John Harbaugh elected to rest most of his starters in a 23-17 loss to Cincinnati last week. While Joe Flacco was given the majority of the day off versus the Bengals, rookie Andrew Luck is cruising into the postseason on a high. The top overall pick has thrown five touchdowns without an interception in his last three games - and the Colts have won nine of 11 following their 28-16 triumph over AFC South champion Houston.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE: Ravens -7, O/U 47

CONSENSUS: Over 65 percent of Covers Consensus players like Indy to cover and 55 percent are on the under.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-40s with sunny skies. Winds will blow out of the WSW at 5 mph.

ABOUT THE COLTS (11-5): With nine more wins than the 2011 campaign, Indianapolis posted the NFL's third-best turnaround in history. Luck has played a significant role in the Colts' resurgence, having led them on seven game-winning drives in the fourth quarter over overtime. His 4,374 yards are the most by a rookie quarterback. Bruce Arians has guided the team in the absence of Pagano, who was a defensive assistant coach for four years with Baltimore and defensive coordinator in 2011.

ABOUT THE RAVENS (10-6): Lewis has been sidelined 10 games with a torn right triceps, but the two-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year expects to play on Sunday. How much he'll play is in limbo, but wide receiver Anquan Boldin will be on the field after his one-week hiatus with a bruised shoulder. Boldin has fared well versus Indianapolis, collecting 19 receptions for 221 yards and a touchdown in three career games. Ray Rice rushed for 103 yards and a score and added six receptions in a 24-10 win over the Colts on Dec. 11, 2011.

TRENDS:

* Colts are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Ravens are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Colts are 8-0 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in Ravens’ last five home games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Flacco has struggled in three meetings versus Indianapolis, throwing a total of five interceptions - including two in a 20-3 divisional playoff loss at Lucas Oil Stadium three years ago.

2. Jim Caldwell, who was Indianapolis' coach from 2009-11, is now Baltimore's offensive coordinator.

3. The Colts have yielded 374.3 total yards per contest, which ranks 26th in the league.

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**Udog** · 01-06-2013, 01:08 AM

NFL

Wild Card Round

Sunday, January 6

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Seahawks at Redskins: What bettors need to know
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Seattle Seahawks at Washington Redskins (3, 46)

The Washington Redskins mortgaged their future last year to trade up and take Robert Griffin III with the No. 2 overall draft pick. Despite the hype, few could have anticipated that Griffin would provide such an immediate dividend. The Redskins closed the season with seven consecutive wins to claim the NFC East title and secure their first playoff berth since 2007. Yet, when Washington takes the field to host the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday afternoon in the wild-card round, there is debate in some circles as to whether Griffin will even be the best rookie quarterback on the field.

Unheralded third-round selection Russell Wilson has played brilliantly in piloting the Seahawks to five straight wins to set up the second postseason matchup in league history - and the second in as many years - featuring rookie starting QBs. As befitting his draft status, Griffin received more hype due to his all-around skills, but Wilson closed with a rush and threw more touchdown passes (26 to 20) than his counterpart. One stat which illustrates the success of both players: Griffin and Wilson finished third and fourth in passer rating at 102.4 and 100.0, respectively,

TV: 4:30 p.m.ET, FOX.

LINE: Seahawks -3, O/U 46

CONSENSUS: Over 51 percent of Covers Consensus players like Seattle to cover and 51 percent are on the under.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-40s with partly cloudy skies. Winds will be light out of the SSW.

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (11-5): Seattle closed the season with a 20-13 victory over St. Louis, but it was a dominating three-game stretch prior to that victory that opened eyes coast-to-coast. The Seahawks annihilated San Francisco, Buffalo and Arizona by a combined 150-30, becoming the first team in 62 years to amass that many points in a three-game stretch. Wilson threw 16 touchdown passes and only two interceptions over the final eight games and running back Marshawn Lynch churned out ten 100-yard games - including four straight to close the season - to finish third in the league with 1,590 yards. Seattle was equally impressive on the other side of the ball, surrendering a league-low 15.3 points per game. The Seahawks will get a boost in the secondary when starting CB Brandon Browner returns from a four-game suspension for violating the league's drug policy.

ABOUT THE REDSKINS (10-6): Griffin set a rookie record with 815 rushing yards but is still dealing with a sprained knee ligament that caused him to sit out a game and limited his mobility in season-ending wins over Philadelphia and Dallas. He threw for only 100 yards against the Cowboys, although he still managed to run for 63 yards and a score. Like Wilson, Griffin has a hard-charging running back to lean on in fellow rookie Alfred Morris, a sixth-round pick out of Florida Atlantic. Morris finished second in the league with 1,613 yards and capped off the regular season by running over the Cowboys for 200 yards and three touchdowns. Washington's defense is vulnerable against the pass (281.9 yards), ranking 30th in the league, but was fifth against the run (95.8). It has steadily improved in the second half, allowing an average of eight fewer points over the final eight games.

TRENDS:

* Seahawks are 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record.
* Redskins are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in Seahawks’ last four road games.
* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Washington.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Seahawks defeated the Redskins in the playoffs in 2005 and 2007, but they have lost eight straight postseason games on the road.

2. Washington rallied from a 10-point, fourth-quarter deficit to win in Seattle 23-17 in November 2011.

3. Wilson was named the league's rookie of the month for December. Griffin claimed the monthly honor in September and November

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Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Wild Card Round (Saturday, January 5 - Sunday, January 6)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Wild Card Round (Saturday, January 5 - Sunday, January 6)

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