The Bum's NBA Best Bets For January !

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday, January 26

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Cleveland - 7:00 PM ET Cleveland +6 500
Toronto - Over 197 500

New York - 7:00 PM ET Philadelphia +3.5 500
Philadelphia - Under 192 500

Chicago - 7:00 PM ET Washington +1.5 500
Washington - Over 185 500

Minnesota - 7:30 PM ET (Charlotte -3 500 POD )Charlotte - Under 193 500

Brooklyn - 8:00 PM ET Houston -3.5 500
Houston - Over 201 500

Golden State - 8:30 PM ET Golden State +2 500
Milwaukee - Under 208 500

Phoenix - 8:30 PM ET San Antonio -9 500
San Antonio - Under 200.5 500

Sacramento - 9:00 PM ET Denver -13 500
Denver - Over 212 500

Indiana - 9:30 PM ET Indiana +2 500
Utah - Under 184 500

L.A. Clippers - 10:00 PM ET Portland -1 500 POD # 2
Portland - Under 191 500

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Long Sheet

Sunday, January 27

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MIAMI (28 - 12) at BOSTON (20 - 23) - 1/27/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in home games on Sunday games over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 15-25 ATS (-12.5 Units) in all games this season.
BOSTON is 157-199 ATS (-61.9 Units) in home games revenging a loss vs opponent since 1996.
BOSTON is 75-103 ATS (-38.3 Units) in home games after allowing 105 points or more since 1996.
BOSTON is 69-107 ATS (-48.7 Units) in home games after scoring 105 points or more since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 12-9 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 11-10 straight up against BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
13 of 21 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OKLAHOMA CITY (34 - 10) at LA LAKERS (18 - 25) - 1/27/2013, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 26-16 ATS (+8.4 Units) in all games this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 26-15 ATS (+9.5 Units) as a favorite this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 113-82 ATS (+22.8 Units) in road games since 1996.
LA LAKERS are 17-26 ATS (-11.6 Units) in all games this season.
LA LAKERS are 15-26 ATS (-13.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) in home games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 37-54 ATS (-22.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 7-5 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 9-4 straight up against LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
7 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DETROIT (16 - 27) at ORLANDO (14 - 28) - 1/27/2013, 6:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 36-17 ATS (+17.3 Units) after allowing 105 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
ORLANDO is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) as a favorite this season.
ORLANDO is 7-15 ATS (-9.5 Units) in home games this season.
ORLANDO is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in home games revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
ORLANDO is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 5-4 against the spread versus ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
ORLANDO is 5-4 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ORLEANS (14 - 29) at MEMPHIS (28 - 14) - 1/27/2013, 6:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MEMPHIS is 25-15 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all games this season.
MEMPHIS is 62-41 ATS (+16.9 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 39-22 ATS (+14.8 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) after allowing 85 points or less over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) after a win by 10 points or more this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 53-37 ATS (+12.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) in road games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 49-28 ATS (+18.2 Units) in road games in January games since 1996.
NEW ORLEANS is 23-11 ATS (+10.9 Units) in road games revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MEMPHIS is 5-4 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
MEMPHIS is 6-3 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
7 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (25 - 18) at NEW YORK (26 - 15) - 1/27/2013, 6:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 56-83 ATS (-35.3 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points since 1996.
ATLANTA is 55-85 ATS (-38.5 Units) in a road game where where the total is between 190 and 194.5 points since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW YORK is 4-3 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
NEW YORK is 4-3 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHOENIX (15 - 29) at DALLAS (18 - 25) - 1/27/2013, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHOENIX is 21-34 ATS (-16.4 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in January games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) in home games after a division game over the last 3 seasons.
PHOENIX is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 42-65 ATS (-29.5 Units) in a home game where where the total is between 200 and 204.5 points since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 8-1 against the spread versus PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 8-1 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
7 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PORTLAND (22 - 21) at LA CLIPPERS (32 - 13) - 1/27/2013, 9:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CLIPPERS are 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in home games in January games over the last 3 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) on Sunday games over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 31-18 ATS (+11.2 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 138-190 ATS (-71.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
PORTLAND is 6-3 against the spread versus LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
PORTLAND is 5-4 straight up against LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Sunday, January 27

Hot Teams
-- Miami won its last four games (2-6 last eight AF).
-- Thunder won eight of last ten games (11-7 AF).
-- Grizzlies won four of last five games (12-8-1 HF).
-- Hawks won their last three games (4-6 AU).
-- Dallas won five of its last seven games (5-2 last seven HF).

Cold Teams
-- Celtics lost last six games, scoring 90 or less four times (3-2 HU).
-- Lakers lost four of last five games (0-2 HU).
-- Pistons lost four of last six games (3-8 last 11 AU). Orlando lost last four games, three by six or less points (0-7 last seven HF).
-- Hornets lost three of last four games (14-6 AU).
-- New York lost three of its last four at home (2-8 last ten HF).
-- Suns lost eight of last eleven games (5-3-1 last nine AU).
-- Portland lost six of last eight games (4-0 last four AU). Clippers lost their last four games (9-4 last 13 HF, 0-3 last three).

Totals
-- Five of last six Boston home games stayed under the total.
-- Seven of last nine Laker games stayed under the total.
-- 14 of last 16 Orlando games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Memphis games stayed under total.
-- Last three Atlanta games went over the total; Knicks' last five games all stayed under.
-- Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Phoenix games.
-- Over is 8-3 in Portland's last eleven home games.

Back-to-backs
-- New York is 3-5 vs spread if it played night before.
-- Phoenix is 3-7 vs spread if it played night before, 3-3 on road.
-- Portland is 5-5 vs spread if it played night before. Clippers are 4-5 if they played night before, 0-2 if they lost.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Sunday, January 27

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Trend Report
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1:00 PM
MIAMI vs. BOSTON
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games
Miami is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Boston
Boston is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Boston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games

3:30 PM
OKLAHOMA CITY vs. LA LAKERS
Oklahoma City is 6-1 SU in their last 7 games when playing LA Lakers
Oklahoma City is 4-13 SU in their last 17 games when playing on the road against LA Lakers
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the LA Lakers last 6 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City
LA Lakers are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City

6:00 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. MEMPHIS
New Orleans is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Memphis
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing Memphis
Memphis is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing New Orleans
Memphis is 17-6 SU in its last 23 games at home

6:00 PM
DETROIT vs. ORLANDO
Detroit is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Detroit is 4-18 SU in its last 22 games on the road
Orlando is 7-15 ATS in its last 22 games when playing at home against Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Orlando's last 6 games when playing at home against Detroit

6:30 PM
ATLANTA vs. NEW YORK
Atlanta is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Atlanta is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
New York is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New York's last 5 games

7:30 PM
PHOENIX vs. DALLAS
Phoenix is 2-13 SU in its last 15 games on the road
Phoenix is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Dallas
Dallas is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing Phoenix
Dallas is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games at home

9:30 PM
PORTLAND vs. LA CLIPPERS
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Portland's last 11 games on the road
Portland is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
LA Clippers are 18-7 SU in their last 25 games
LA Clippers are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Sunday, January 27

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NBA on ABC: Heat at Celtics, Thunder at Lakers
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Miami Heat at Boston Celtics (+3.5, 188)

The Boston Celtics are heading toward oblivion and their next opponent could speed up their journey. The skidding Celtics will attempt to avoid a seventh consecutive loss when they host the Miami Heat and ex-teammate Ray Allen in a Sunday matinee. Boston saw its losing streak reach six games in stunning fashion, blowing a 27-point lead in Atlanta and falling in double overtime to the Hawks on Friday night. The skid, coming on the heels of a six-game winning streak, dropped the Celtics three games below .500.

Miami, which owns the best record in the Eastern Conference, has ripped off four straight victories after steamrolling the Detroit Pistons 110-88 on Friday night. The Heat have been rather ordinary away from home with a 10-9 record, but they won their last two road games in impression fashion by knocking off Golden State and the Los Angeles Lakers on back-to-back nights. Boston is the first stop of a four-game road trip for Miami, which will have played 10 of 12 games away from home when it's over.

TV: 1 p.m., ABC

CONSENSUS: 66 percent of Covers Consensus plays are on Miami while 43 percent are on the under.

ABOUT THE HEAT (28-12, 20-20-0 ATS): Allen played a pivotal role in Boston's run to a championship in 2008, but the sight of him in a Miami uniform has to be galling for Celtics fans - particularly after he turned down a more lucrative offer from Boston to sign with the Heat in the offseason. Content to be a role player with Miami, Allen is averaging 11.4 points and shooting 44.6 percent from behind the arc. He told the Sun-Sentinel of South Florida he doesn't know what kind of greeting to expect. "I have great memories. ... I'll always cherish those moments," he said. "Regardless of how they respond to me, it won't change how I feel."

ABOUT THE CELTICS (20-23, 14-26-3 ATS): Guard Avery Bradley may feel a little extra pressure due to Allen's return. He replaced Allen in Boston's starting lineup last season, leading to speculation that was among the reasons Allen's opted to take his shooting talents to South Beach. Known as one of the league's better on-ball defenders, Bradley has his second-highest output with 14 points on 6-of-11 shooting against Atlanta. It was only the third time in 12 games that Bradley scored in double figures. He missed the first two months while recuperating from two shoulder surgeries.

TRENDS:

* Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.
* Under is 19-8-1 in the last 28 meetings in Boston.
* Home team is 16-7 ATS in the last 23 meetings.
* Heat are 2-10 ATS in the last 12 meetings in Boston.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. Miami beat the Celtics in seven games in the Eastern Conference finals last season, winning Game 6 in Boston behind 45 points from LeBron James.

2. Celtics PG Rajon Rondo is coming off back-to-back triple-doubles for Boston, which last lost six straight from April 4-15, 2007.

3. Allen, the NBA's career 3-point leader, scored 19 points in a 120-107 season-opening win over Boston.



Oklahoma City Thunder at Los Angeles Lakers (+3, 207)

The Los Angeles Lakers finally squeezed out a win on Friday to snap a four-game slide. If they want to make it back-to-back triumphs, the host Lakers will have to figure out a way around the NBA-best Oklahoma City Thunder on Sunday. Los Angeles found a formula against the Utah Jazz on Friday with Kobe Bryant acting mainly as a distributor on offense while the team played strong defense.

The Thunder are making the final stop in a six-game road trip and have taken three of the first five after easily dispatching the Sacramento Kings on Friday. Oklahoma City is the top scoring team in the NBA and will test Los Angeles’ new-found defense with two of the best scorers in the league in Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. The Lakers have won their last five games when allowing less than 95 points.

TV: 3:30 p.m. ABC

CONSENSUS: 85 percent of Cover Consensus plays are on Oklahoma City while 69 percent are on the under.

ABOUT THE THUNDER (34-10, 26-16-2 ATS): Oklahoma City has shown signs of fatigue on the current trip but had a day off on Saturday to rest up for the Lakers. The Thunder squandered a late lead in a loss at Golden State on Wednesday and got off to a sluggish start at Sacramento on Friday before busting out and pushing the lead to as much as 25 points in the third quarter en route to a 105-95 triumph. Sunday marks the end of a stretch of 11 of 13 games on the road for Oklahoma City, which included a 116-101 victory over the Lakers at Staples Center on Jan. 11. Durant went for 42 points and Westbrook added 27 and 10 assists as the Thunder shot 50.6 percent in the easy victory.

ABOUT THE LAKERS (18-25, 17-25-1 ATS): For all the talk of Los Angeles’ issues on offense, the team ranks among the top scoring teams in the NBA at an average of 102.3 points. The overlooked problem has been on the defensive end, where the Lakers rank in the bottom five in points allowed. They made a much stronger effort on that end against Utah on Friday, holding the Jazz to 37 points in the first half. Bryant handed out a season-high 14 assists while matching a season-low with only 10 field goal attempts in the 102-84 victory. Los Angeles held a team meeting before a loss to Memphis on Wednesday to air some grievances and looked like a more cohesive unit on Friday. The Lakers are still seven games below .500 but will face four straight teams with losing records after the Thunder exit Staples Center.

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Thunder are 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings in Los Angeles.
* Thunder are 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Favorite is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Road team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. Oklahoma City has taken each of the first two meetings this season and have won four straight and eight of the last 10 in the series.

2. Los Angeles coach Mike D’Antoni was reportedly given a vote of confidence by team management.

3. Lakers C Dwight Howard (shoulder) collected 17 points and 13 rebounds on Friday after leaving the previous game with the injury.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Dunkel

Phoenix at Dallas
The Mavericks look to build on their 7-0 ATS record in their last 7 games when playing with 1 days rest. Dallas is the pick (-7) according to Dunkel, which has the Mavericks favored by 9. Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-7). Here are all of today's picks.

SUNDAY, JANUARY 26

Game 801-802: Miami at Boston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 124.324; Boston 117.559
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 7; 181
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 4; 187 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-4); Under

Game 803-804: Oklahoma City at LA Lakers (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 124.426; LA Lakers 122.912
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 1 1/2; 212
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 3 1/2; 206 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (+3 1/2); Over

Game 805-806: Detroit at Orlando (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 116.242; Orlando 119.085
Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 3; 191
Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 1 1/2; 195 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Orlando (-1 1/2); Under

Game 807-808: New Orleans at Memphis (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 115.161; Memphis 125.886
Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 10 1/2; 182
Vegas Line & Total: Memphis by 7 1/2; 178 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-7 1/2); Over

Game 809-810: Atlanta at New York (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 117.175; New York 120.153
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 3; 196
Vegas Line & Total: New York by 6; 192
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+6); Over

Game 811-812: Phoenix at Dallas (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 114.754; Dallas 123.527
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 9; 197
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 7; 201
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-7); Under

Game 813-814: Portland at LA Clippers (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 118.520; LA Clippers 123.905
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 5 1/2; 195
Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 7 1/2; 191 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Portland (+7 1/2); Over

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Sunday, January 27

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Bank shots: NBA betting news and notes
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Each week, we look back on the NBA betting scene and give you the best –and worst – basketball bets, as well as some spots to keep an eye on with the upcoming schedule.

For the week of Jan. 20-26.

Hottest ATS team

Washington Wizards (3-1 SU, 4-0 ATS)

The Wizards are on a red-hot 10-game cover streak. Washington has thrived since PG John Wall returned from injury and continues to defy oddsmakers as an underdog. The Wizards host the Kings Monday before heading out on a three-game road swing.

Coldest ATS team

Los Angeles Clippers (0-4 SU, 0-4 ATS)

The Clippers have been money for bettors all season long but they’re currently mired in a mid-season slump. Los Angeles has failed to cover in five straight games – four times as favorites. The Clippers host Portland Sunday and then head out on a season-long eight-game road trip beginning Wednesday in Minnesota.

Best over team

Milwaukee Bucks (2-1 SU, 3-0 over/under)

The Bucks have soared over the total in four consecutive games. Milwaukee’s offense has come alive during that stretch, averaging 109.2 points per game. The Bucks hit the court again Tuesday in Detroit before two tough contests against the Bulls and Knicks.

Best under team

New York Knicks (1-2 SU, 0-3 over/under)

The Knicks have gone low in five straight and six of their last seven games. New York is averaging just 84.6 points over the last three games – 11.5 points lower than its 96.1 season average. The Knicks kick off a five-game homestand beginning Sunday when Atlanta rolls into town.

Scouting the schedule:

-The Philadelphia 76ers kicked off their season-long eight-game homestand with a win over the Knicks Saturday night. The Sixers are 16-6 O/U at the Wells Fargo Center.

-The New Orleans Hornets play eight of their nine games away from home, but that isn’t necessarily a bad thing for their backers. The Hornets boast an impressive 14-7 ATS mark on the road.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Short Sheet

Sunday, January 27

Miami at Boston, 1:00 ET ABC
Miami: 8-1 Under off a win by 15+ points
Boston: 1-8 ATS off a road loss by 10+ points

Oklahoma City at LA Lakers, 3:30 ET ABC
Oklahoma City: 17-5 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points
LA Lakers: 8-20 ATS after playing as a favorite

Detroit at Orlando, 6:05 ET
Detroit: 15-5 ATS after allowing 110+ points
Orlando: 1-8 ATS as a favorite

New Orleans at Memphis, 6:05 ET
New Orleans: 14-6 ATS off a home game
Memphis: 12-3 Under after allowing 85 points or less

Atlanta at NY Knicks, 6:35 ET ESPN
Atlanta: 0-8 ATS off BB ATS wins as favorites
NY Knicks: 17-7 ATS at home off a road game

Phoenix at Dallas, 7:35 ET
Phoenix: 11-1 Under playing with same-season revenge
Dallas: 15-4 ATS at home off a division game

Portland at LA Clippers, 9:35 ET
Portland: 2-15 ATS off BB ATS wins
LA Clippers: 12-3 ATS on Sundays

[StarDust Bum]

Inside the Paint - Sunday

January 27, 2013

Three seasons ago, the Los Angeles Lakers defeated the Boston Celtics 4-3 in the 2009-10 NBA Finals. The championship was the second straight for the “Purple and Gold” and it was also their third consecutive trip to the finals for the club. In the 2007 season, Boston humbled Los Angles in six games of the finals.
Fast forward to the 2012-13 season and both teams are barely clinging on to that recent history. If you follow the Association daily, you obviously know these teams have no shot of winning this season or to be brutally honest, not in the near future either. Unless some serious changes are made!

It took them a couple months but the oddsmakers have finally noticed how listless these teams have performed. Despite losing in Game 7 of last year’s Eastern Conference Finals to Miami, Boston (20-23 straight up, 14-26 against the spread) is a 28/1 choice at Sportsbook.ag to win the finals this season.

Los Angeles (18-25 SU, 17-25 ATS) is listed at a 40/1 price and that number is still too low. It should probably be 100/1 but the oddsmakers don’t want to put at risk. However, they’re four games out of the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference and it’s an uphill battle here on out.

On Sunday, the two most recognizable franchises in the NBA can make a statement with home victories against the two teams that squared off in last year’s finals, Miami (28-12 SU, 20-20 ATS) and Oklahoma City (34-10 SU, 26-16 ATS).

Let’s take a closer look at the two nationally televised matchups on ABC, which tip at 1:05 p.m. ET.

Miami at Boston: The Heat opened as a 3 ½-point road favorite and bettors could be hesitant to back the defending champions because their road record is 10-9 SU and 8-11 ATS. However, Miami is facing a Boston team that has dropped six straight games. Three of those setbacks occurred at TD Garden, where the team has gone 13-9 SU and 8-12 ATS this season. As an underdog this season, Boston is just 5-11 against the number.

Miami beat Boston 120-107 at home in the season opener on Oct. 30 and it covered as a 6 ½-point favorite. This was a tight game down the stretch and a lot closer than the 13-point margin. Ray Allen sparked the Heat with 19 off the bench and the former Celtic will be making his first return to Boston on Sunday.

Including last year’s Eastern Conference Finals, the ‘over’ is on a 6-2 run between these teams. Sunday’s ‘over/under’ is hovering around 188 points. The Heat offense has started to click, posting 100-plus points in their last two games albeit against the Raptors and Pistons.

However, Boston has only eclipsed the century mark once during its current six-game slide and that came in Friday’s 123-111 overtime loss at Atlanta. Also, the ‘under’ has cashed in seven of the last eight games played at TD Garden and the lone ‘over’ ticket snuck in during an overtime loss to Chicago (99-100) on Jan. 18.

Oklahoma City at L.A. Lakers: The Thunder opened as a 3 1/2-point road favorite and the number dropped to three, which could seem a little low. Just over two weeks ago, Oklahoma City blasted Los Angeles 116-101 as a six-point favorite from the Staples Center. The Lakers didn’t have All-Star center Dwight Howard in the lineup but is he worth three points? If you’ve seen this guy play, you’re aware that he’s lost a step defensively and his offensive game doesn’t fit, which explains the daily trade rumors out of Los Angeles.

When the Lakers did have Howard suited up against OKC on Dec. 7, he had 23 points and 18 rebounds. Guess what? The Thunder failed to cover the number (7 ½) but they still notched a 114-108 win at home and that’s with L.A. outscoring the Thunder 33-25 in the final 12 minutes. To be fair, Steve Nash and Pau Gasol didn’t play in that loss and they’re both expected in action on Sunday.

Including Kobe Bryant, all four played on Friday and they cruised past Utah 102-82 as a five-point home favorite. The victory snapped a four-game losing skid for the Lakers. The Jazz aren’t a bad team but they don’t have a talented point guard to attack the Lakers, which is their major weakness on defense. Oklahoma City has that type of player and his name is Russell Westbrook. The All-Star out of UCLA scored 33 in the first meeting at home and 27 two weeks ago in Los Angeles.

The Thunder will be playing the final game of their six-game road trip, which has seen the team go 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS in the first five contests. Including these outcomes, OKC has gone 15-7 SU and 12-8 ATS on the road this season.

The total is hovering around 207 points, which is down from the opener of 210. The Lakers have seen the ‘under’ go 13-9 at Staples Center and the Thunder are 13-9 to the ‘under’ on the road.

MVP Odds and Future Props

If you’re looking for a tightly contested wager, then you should turn your attention to this year’s Most Valuable Player award. Oklahoma City’s Kevin Durant is now the 5/6 (Bet $120 to win $100) favorite at Sportsbook.ag while Miami’s LeBron James is a 7/5 (Bet $100 to $140) choice. After those two All-Stars, the Clippers’ Chris Paul and the Knicks’ Carmelo Anthony are next in line at 10/1 odds. In case you’re wondering, Kobe Bryant is listed at 25/1 (Bet $100 to win $2,500) and the Celtics’ Rajon Rondo has the same odds as well.

Another betting option at Sportsbook.ag that has value is the 2013 NBA Finals Possible Matchups prop. If you believe Oklahoma City and Miami will meet again, then take advantage of the 3/1 odds (Bet $100 to win $300). I personally don’t see anybody beating the Heat in the East and if you believe that statement, then perhaps check out these other options, which can create some nice hedge bets come the postseason.

Heat vs. Clippers (9/2)
Heat vs. Spurs (11/2)
Heat vs. Grizzlies (20/1)
Heat vs. Lakers (28/1)
Heat vs. Nuggets (32/1)
Heat vs. Warriors (65/1)

[StarDust Bum]

Hoop Trends - Sunday

January 27, 2013

ATS TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Celtics are 0-10 ATS (-8.2 ppg) since January 02, 2004 as a home dog off a loss in which they led at the end of the third quarter.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Celtics are 0-10 OU (-10.0 ppg) since May 12, 2008 as a dog when their DPA was at least plus 15 points in their previous game.

PLAYER TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Pistons are 10-0 OU (13.1 ppg) since March 14, 2012 as a dog after winning the previous matchup in which Tayshaun Prince was not the Pistons’ high scorer.

CHOICE TREND:

-- The Lakers are 0-10 OU (-15.0 ppg) since December 22, 1997 as a dog with at most one day of rest after a win in which they shot less than 60% from the free-throw line.

ACTIVE TRENDS:

-- The Heat are 0-9 OU (-13.8 ppg) since April 08, 2012 after winning the previous matchup in which Lebron James was not the Heat’s high scorer.

-- The Celtics are 8-0 ATS (10.2 ppg) since March 26, 2007 at home as a dog after losing the previous matchup in which Rajon Rondo was not the Celtics’ high scorer.

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday, January 27

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Miami - 1:00 PM ET Boston +3.5 500
Boston - Under 187.5 500

Oklahoma City - 3:30 PM ET Oklahoma City -3 500
L.A. Lakers - Under 206.5 500

Detroit - 6:00 PM ET Orlando -2 500
Orlando - Over 195.5 500

New Orleans - 6:00 PM ET New Orleans +7.5 500 POD
Memphis - Under 178.5 500

Atlanta - 6:30 PM ET Atlanta +5 500
New York - Under 192 500

Phoenix - 7:30 PM ET Phoenix +7 500
Dallas - Under 201 500 POD TOTAL

Portland - 9:30 PM ET L.A. Clippers -6.5 500
L.A. Clippers - Under 191 500

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Dunkel

Golden State at Toronto
The Warriors look to build on their 13-3 ATS record in their last 16 games against Toronto. Golden State is the pick (-1) according to Dunkel, which has the Warriors favored by 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Golden State (-1). Here are all of today's picks.

MONDAY, JANUARY 28

Game 701-702: Golden State at Toronto (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 121.548; Toronto 119.179
Dunkel Line & Total: Golden State by 2 1/2; 198
Vegas Line & Total: Golden State by 1; 202
Dunkel Pick: Golden State (-1); Under

Game 703-704: Sacramento at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 108.460; Washington 123.738
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 15 1/2; 208
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 8; 201
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-8); Over

Game 705-706: Memphis at Philadelphia (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 119.432; Philadelphia 120.242
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1; 181
Vegas Line & Total: Memphis by 3 1/2; 178
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+3 1/2); Over

Game 707-708: Orlando at Brooklyn (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 111.306; Brooklyn 123.836
Dunkel Line & Total: Brooklyn by 12 1/2; 190
Vegas Line & Total: Brooklyn by 9; 194 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Brooklyn (-9); Under

Game 709-710: Charlotte at Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 109.269; Chicago 123.111
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 14; 182
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 711-712: Indiana at Denver (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 119.247; Denver 123.491
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 4; 198
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 5 1/2; 194 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+5 1/2); Over

Game 713-714: Houston at Utah (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 118.713; Utah 120.807
Dunkel Line & Total: Utah by 2; 212
Vegas Line & Total: Utah by 4; 207 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+4); Over

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, January 28

Hot Teams
-- Wizards won seven of last ten games (2-2 HF).
-- Brooklyn won its last seven home games (4-2-1 HF with PJ).
-- Bulls won six of last eight games (5-16 HF).
-- Nuggets won nine of last eleven games (12-7 HF).
-- Rockets won three of last four games (6-12-1 AU). Utah won seven of last nine games (9-6 HF).

Cold Teams
-- Toronto lost six of last eight games (6-5 HF). Warriors lost four of last five on road (10-6-1 AU, 2-4 last six).
-- Kings lost last four games, all by 9+ points (8-11 AU).
-- Grizzlies are 4-5 in their last nine games (7-3-1 AF). Philly lost seven of last ten games (5-2 HU).
-- Orlando lost its last five games. (12-5-1 AU).
-- Bobcats are 0-6 vs spread in game after last six wins (9-11 AU).
-- Indiana lost six of last eight road games (5-12 AU).

Totals
-- Six of last eight Toronto games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Wizard games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last eight Memphis games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 14-2-1 in last seventeen Orlando games.
-- Six of last eight Charlotte road games stayed under the total.
-- Seven of last ten Indiana games stayed under the total; eight of last 10 Denver games went over.
-- Four of last five Houston games stayed under the total.

Back-to-backs
-- Memphis is 5-2 vs spread on road if it played night before.
-- Orlando is 3-1 vs spread on road if it played night before.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Monday, January 28

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
SACRAMENTO vs. WASHINGTON
Sacramento is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Sacramento is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Washington's last 16 games when playing at home against Sacramento
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Washington's last 8 games at home

7:00 PM
MEMPHIS vs. PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Memphis's last 7 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Memphis's last 8 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games

7:00 PM
GOLDEN STATE vs. TORONTO
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Golden State's last 5 games
Golden State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Toronto's last 8 games
Toronto is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games

7:30 PM
ORLANDO vs. BROOKLYN
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Orlando's last 17 games
Orlando is 14-4 SU in its last 18 games when playing Brooklyn
Brooklyn is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Orlando
Brooklyn is 4-14 SU in its last 18 games when playing Orlando

8:00 PM
CHARLOTTE vs. CHICAGO
Charlotte is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Chicago
Charlotte is 3-12 SU in its last 15 games on the road
Chicago is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against Charlotte
Chicago is 7-18 ATS in its last 25 games at home

9:00 PM
INDIANA vs. DENVER
Indiana is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Denver
Indiana is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Denver's last 7 games
Denver is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games

9:00 PM
HOUSTON vs. UTAH
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing Utah
Houston is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Utah's last 5 games when playing Houston
Utah is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Long Sheet

Monday, January 28

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GOLDEN STATE (26 - 17) at TORONTO (16 - 28) - 1/28/2013, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GOLDEN STATE is 34-21 ATS (+10.9 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in a road game where where the total is between 200 and 204.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
TORONTO is 63-89 ATS (-34.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 2-1 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 2-1 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SACRAMENTO (16 - 29) at WASHINGTON (11 - 31) - 1/28/2013, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SACRAMENTO is 17-26 ATS (-11.6 Units) in all games this season.
SACRAMENTO is 35-48 ATS (-17.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
SACRAMENTO is 29-49 ATS (-24.9 Units) against Southeast division opponents since 1996.
SACRAMENTO is 17-29 ATS (-14.9 Units) after allowing 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 27-14 ATS (+11.6 Units) in all games this season.
WASHINGTON is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in January games this season.
WASHINGTON is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in non-conference games this season.
WASHINGTON is 292-356 ATS (-99.6 Units) in home games since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
SACRAMENTO is 3-1 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
SACRAMENTO is 3-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MEMPHIS (28 - 15) at PHILADELPHIA (18 - 25) - 1/28/2013, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MEMPHIS is 25-16 ATS (+7.4 Units) in all games this season.
MEMPHIS is 34-14 ATS (+18.6 Units) when playing on back-to-back days over the last 3 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 70-47 ATS (+18.3 Units) against Atlantic division opponents since 1996.
MEMPHIS is 55-36 ATS (+15.4 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 25-39 ATS (-17.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MEMPHIS is 3-1 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
MEMPHIS is 3-1 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ORLANDO (14 - 29) at BROOKLYN (26 - 18) - 1/28/2013, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ORLANDO is 32-50 ATS (-23.0 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 20-33 ATS (-16.3 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BROOKLYN is 5-5 against the spread versus ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
ORLANDO is 7-3 straight up against BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHARLOTTE (11 - 32) at CHICAGO (26 - 17) - 1/28/2013, 8:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 4-4 against the spread versus CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 5-3 straight up against CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANA (26 - 18) at DENVER (27 - 18) - 1/28/2013, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANA is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
DENVER is 66-52 ATS (+8.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) against Central division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 29-16 ATS (+11.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 3-1 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 3-1 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (24 - 22) at UTAH (24 - 20) - 1/28/2013, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) after allowing 105 points or more this season.
UTAH is 33-20 ATS (+11.0 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
UTAH is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
UTAH is 5-3 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
UTAH is 4-4 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
6 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons