NFL Week 17 Plays

[roccodean]

1*: .66-.75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units

Possibly 2 more plays

1* Minn +3.5 over GB (possible 2* upgrade)

1* Phil +7.5 over NYG (possilbe 2* upgrade)

analysis to follow, may add st lou

GL!

[roccodean]

PHIL
The Giants just aren't a good team and don't deserve to be a TD+ favorite. This line is inflated (my line has NYG-6) because NYG is in a "must win", but teams that are eliminated from the playoffs are actually 62% ATS against teams that have to win to make the playoffs (last 20+years). Trends are only valuable if they have a reason to make sense and this one does. The line is often inflated and the opposing team is playing loose and playing spoiler. Although the Giants can make the playoffs they need Minn and Chi to lose (later games) so they know in reality it is unlikely. After losing last week I think they are going to be down and might even lose this game straight up. The Giants D is terrible; they are 28th vs the run and dead last vs the pass. I think Vick is going to have a redemption game this week. Philly applies to a 105-78 ATS trend playing against the giants (a revenge indicator). Philly spoils the Giants playoff hopes in this game.

MIN
Both of these teams will be motivated to win, but I think that Green Bay is overvalued. Their strength is their pass game (8th in YPPA), but Minne is very good on pass D (9th in YPPA). Minnesota and AP average 5.4 YPR (best in the league) and face a GB D that is bad allowing 4.4 YPR (22nd). Because of GB's blowout last week, we are getting line value here; teams that win at home by 21+ to extend winning streak are 27-55-3 ATS on the road the next week if not a dog of 7.5+. Give me the Vikes!

[CheCheBoFumbe]

Thanks for the info Rocco

[Kaptain]

gl rocco

[Governor]

Great regular season !