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2* Detroit over Atl (Possible 3* upgrade)
Play at +3.5 or higher
Waiting for the public to take ATL and hope to get 4.5+
Buy low...that's how you make money in the stock market and betting sports. And Detroit is very low after losing to Arizona last week. This puts them in great position for the upset here. Because they lost as a big fav last week they qualify for a 128-68 ATS trend. Often late in the season bad teams are undervalued. In fact, teams that are 2 games or more below .500 are 199-167-6 ATS in the final two weeks of the regular season when facing a team at .500 or better. Amazingly, Atl is not that much better than Detroit statistically. Atl is 20th vs the pass (YPPA) and 30th vs the run (YPR). Offensively they have no run game (29th). Their pass D is good (5th), but Detroit's strength is against the pass (10th in YPPA). Detroit's strength of schedule is 6th vs Atlanta's 26th. Detroit is also in a good position here because they are off a blowout loss and these teams are 64% ATS since 2001. I would also take a piece on the money line here.
2* TB over St. Louis (Possible 3* upgrade)
Play at -3 or better
Don't be scare of TB's blowout loss last week, that actually put them in a good position for a W here. Teams off blowouts and shutouts are good plays long term and TB qualifies for a 15-2 ATS subset of this. Tampa Bay's flaw is their pass D, but the Rams pass offense isn't good (6.8 YPPA) so I don't think they will be able to exploit it. TB's run D is the best in the league so I can't see the Rams scoring often. This Tampa's final home game and they are off 4 straight L's so we will see them as focused as ever.
1* Tenn +13 over GB (Possible 2* upgrade)
GB is over value and has no reason to be a nearly 2 TD favorite. They allow 4.5 YPR (23rd) and Tenn averages 4.7 YPR (6th). Tenn will be able to run the ball effectively and keep GB's offense off the field. Big favs against bad teams are not good plays (105-151 ATS trend proving this). Tenn will keep this close and get the cover.
Play at +3.5 or higher
Waiting for the public to take ATL and hope to get 4.5+
Buy low...that's how you make money in the stock market and betting sports. And Detroit is very low after losing to Arizona last week. This puts them in great position for the upset here. Because they lost as a big fav last week they qualify for a 128-68 ATS trend. Often late in the season bad teams are undervalued. In fact, teams that are 2 games or more below .500 are 199-167-6 ATS in the final two weeks of the regular season when facing a team at .500 or better. Amazingly, Atl is not that much better than Detroit statistically. Atl is 20th vs the pass (YPPA) and 30th vs the run (YPR). Offensively they have no run game (29th). Their pass D is good (5th), but Detroit's strength is against the pass (10th in YPPA). Detroit's strength of schedule is 6th vs Atlanta's 26th. Detroit is also in a good position here because they are off a blowout loss and these teams are 64% ATS since 2001. I would also take a piece on the money line here.
2* TB over St. Louis (Possible 3* upgrade)
Play at -3 or better
Don't be scare of TB's blowout loss last week, that actually put them in a good position for a W here. Teams off blowouts and shutouts are good plays long term and TB qualifies for a 15-2 ATS subset of this. Tampa Bay's flaw is their pass D, but the Rams pass offense isn't good (6.8 YPPA) so I don't think they will be able to exploit it. TB's run D is the best in the league so I can't see the Rams scoring often. This Tampa's final home game and they are off 4 straight L's so we will see them as focused as ever.
1* Tenn +13 over GB (Possible 2* upgrade)
GB is over value and has no reason to be a nearly 2 TD favorite. They allow 4.5 YPR (23rd) and Tenn averages 4.7 YPR (6th). Tenn will be able to run the ball effectively and keep GB's offense off the field. Big favs against bad teams are not good plays (105-151 ATS trend proving this). Tenn will keep this close and get the cover.
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