Announcement

**dss_pansat** · 12-19-2012, 01:41 AM

2012 ncaaf bowl

STRATEGY

1) MOTIVATION

* Do they want to be here?
How can you tell?...maybe best to ask yourself...when the season began...where did they expect to be?
Have they achieved their goals?...or do they still have 'unfinished business' ?

2) MATCH-UP

* Some consider this more important....and it probably is in the later...more prestigious bowls
What can a team do (offensively)?...Can their opponent stop it?....and vice-versa
First look at common opponents for hints....then strength of schedule.... and strength of conferences (especially helpful in later bowls)
Don't forget often overlooked areas like special teams....and turnovers
Consider if either team will have a crowd edge

3) BOWL / COACH HISTORY

* Seems like maybe an overrated factor....but not at all..
Some coaches have their teams ready...some don't....some no doubt just like the extra work (it amounts to an extra spring practice kinda)
Remember (most of) these games are more like exhibition games....some teams are fired up and building for next year....some can't wait for the season to end......

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IDEAS

1) JUST PICK THE WINNER
*that's right..the SU winner of the game almost always covers too
in the 'lesser' bowls....about an 80% + proposition...slightly less in the bigger bowls
**remember this in your bowl confidence entries.....a team you really like to cover...better pick em to win too

2) Lean DOGS...in early bowls...FAVORITES in the BCS / more prestigious bowls....
* a long held handicapping rule...maybe not as reliable today with the parity we see....< hate it
**also....if BOTH teams fired up...maybe avoid a side play and play the total instead

3) The early bowls...with lower betting volume...may offer more value...the greater number of wagers (as in Super Bowl)...the tighter the lines
* just means you have to work harder...or pass...

4) Crowd edge / travel / weather...
*look for a potential crowd edge...some teams very far away will have virtually only a few parents there..a team accustomed to playing before 100,000 or so....may struggle before 20,000 or so (their opponent maybe used to it).....check ticket sales to gauge interest
in general...the warm weather team has an edge (can work outside everyday)....check and see if an indoor facility is available...
remember due to budget issues...some teams may take a REALLY long BUS ride...instead of fly...

5) Look for match-up advantages....
*especially a strong defensive team...vs a top offensive team after a long lay-off...best is maybe a strong running team vs a weak rushing D...as it takes a lot of pressure off the QB...minimizing te turnover risk..
look to strength of schedule...and strength of conference to give you hints

6) INJURIES
*some teams hit hard with injuries...may emerge a totally different team....especially if these guys are leaving and need a big game

7) FADE
**SENIOR heavy teams off a disapponting year...they often are not looking for redemption...but to chase azz and get drunk...
*the 'bubble-burst' team....looking for a great bowl....and end up in the Weedeater Bowl wtf.....**NEVER play....a 'bubble-burst team
* the Heisman winner...all the BS takes a ton of time away from game prep....plus everyone telling him how awesome he is...while his opponents are sick of getting asked...how do you ever plan to stop this awesome individual?
*the team with the extra long lay-off....vs the team with a shorter one....esp if the former is an offensive team....the latter defensive
*TURNOVER prone teams..the lay-off ain't gonna fix it
* the bowl virgin...just happy to be here...key is the HC treats it as a vacation...
****the interim HC...that has ZERO chance of getting the job...the coaches are spending all their time looking for another job (if they wait it's too late)
*cold weather teams....with no indoor facility...tough to stay in top condition if you can't work outside
*warm weather teams...playing in cold weather....Miami...USF come to mind,,,
*teams in a 'lesser' bowl with key players looking for an NFL contract...all they want to do is not get hurt...you might think they need a big game to impress scouts....NO
*** average teams that FINISHED strong.....just the opposite of what most think...often these teams revert back to their old self after a long lay-off
**NEVER play....a 'bubble-burst team

8) PLAY ON
*the team with the better QB...
*the team with the better D...special teams
*a good team that finished poorly.....again the opposite of what most think....the key is the strong team will emerge much omproved...and now offers great value maybe
*the team returning to the same bowl...if they lost the last time here
*a senior heavy team....IF MOTIVATED...avoid if in a lesser bowl maybe....and/or in a party city...
*the team with the interim HC...that the players want to get hired...if the guy has a real shot
*the team from the tougher conference..that played a tougher schedule

9) As always...if you like the FAVORITE....and / or the OVER.....
*bet it EARLY
And...if you like the DOG....and / or the UNDER...maybe best to wait....(unless your side is unusually popular)

10) look to play dogs...especially when getting DD (double-digits)...these hit at about a 65% + rate or better over the years....6-10 pt dogs about 60 or so
$$$ remember that since strong dogs often win outright...don't be afraid to play several on the ML

**dss_pansat** · 12-19-2012, 01:43 AM

2012 ncaaf bowl

CONFERENCE STUFF

best ATS last 6 years
*SU record next

1) IND- 64% 5-6
2) MTW- 59% 20-9
3) SEC- 58% 34-19
4) BE - 55% 23-10
5) P12- 54% 18-17
6) SB - 54% 7-6
7) B10- 50% 17-29
8) WAC- 49% 9-16
9) ACC- 48% 19-30
10) CUSA- 47% 14-19
11) B12- 38% 25-22
12) MAC- 38% 8-18

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COACHING STUFF

Team Out In

Arkansas John L. Smith Brett Bielema
Arkansas State Gus Malzahn Bryan Harsin
Auburn Gene Chizik Gus Malzahn
Boston College Frank Spaziani Steve Addazio
California Jeff Tedford Sonny Dykes
Cincinnati Butch Jones Tommy Tuberville
Colorado Jon Embree Mike MacIntyre
FIU Mario Cristobal ?
Georgia State Bill Curry Trent Miles
Idaho Robb Akey Paul Petrino
Kent State Darrell Hazell
Kentucky Joker Phillips Mark Stoops
Louisiana Tech Sonny Dykes Skip Holtz
N.C. State Tom O'Brien Dave Doeren
N Illinois Dave Doeren Rod Carey
Purdue Danny Hope Darrel Hazell
SJose State Mike MacIntyre ?
Southern Miss Ellis Johnson Todd Monken
Temple Steve Addazio ?
Tennessee Derek Dooley Butch Jones
Texas Tech T Tuberville Kliff Kingsbury
USF Skip Holtz Willie Taggart
UTEP Mike Price Sean Kugler
W Kentucky Willie Taggart Bobby Petrino
WMichigan Bill Cubit ?
Wisconsin Brett Bielema

BOWL COACH:
Arkansas State -John Thompson, DC
Cincinnati - Steve Stripling, defensive line coach
Kent State - Darrell Hazell, departing head coach
N.C. State - Dana Bible, offensive coordinator
Northern Illinois - Rod Carey, offensive line coach named new head coach
Purdue - Patrick Higgins, wide receivers coach
San Jose St - Kent Baer, DC
Texas Tech - Chris Thomsen, offensive line coach
Western Kentucky - Lance Guidry, defensive coordinator
Wisconsin - Barry Alvarez, former head coach and current AD

BEST/WORST BOWL COACHES
ats / su

Bronco M 5-2 5-2
Saban 4-1 4-1
Richt 7-4 6-5
M Riley 5-1 4-2
Peterson 5-1 5-1
Jimbo F 2-0 2-0
Patterson 7-4 4-6-1
Mack 9-4 5-8
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P Johnson 0-4 0-4
Snyder 6-7 4-9
Ault 3-6 2-6
Spurrier 2-4 2-4
Solich 1-3 1-3
Dantonio 1-4 2-3
Dabo 1-3 1-3
O'Leary 1-3 1-3

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TEAM ROLES

ATS

Boise 9-3
AF 13-6
Fla St 22-10
Kan St 4-11
WV 7-15
TTech 6-13
Cuse 11-5
Navy 8-4
Nevada 2-7
Texas 9-18
Rutgers 5-2

SU

NW 1-9 *last win during Nuremberg Trials...
Ohio 1-5
S Caro 5-12
TTech 12-22
FSU 24-14
Va Tech 9-16

FAV

Fresno 0-6
Nevada 0-5
TT 3-10
WV 0-7
Texas 6-13
Oreg 2-7
TCU 2-6-1
LSU 7-4
AF 4-1
Okie St 8-3

DOG

Ga Tech 5-3
NC St 7-4
SMU 4-0
Okie St 0-5
NOTRE DAME 5-9

FAV / DOG.....O/U
*ties dropped

2011 fav 18-15 ATS...O/U 14-20
*DOG won 11 games SU...SU winner 30-4 ATS

2010 fav 20-13 ATS...O/U 17-16
* dog won 10 SU...SU winner was 29-4 ATS

2009 fav 14-20 ATS...O/U 15-19
*dog won 17 games!...O/U 15-19

2008 fav was 16-18...O/U 13-21
*dog won 12

2007 fav 17-15...O/U 16-16
*dog only won 8

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TRAVEL STUFF

*in GENERAL..it takes the human body ONE DAY to recover / and return to peak performance ability...
from each time zone crossed......

closest...
S Diego St home field
Vandy home city
Texas 74 miles
UCF 93 miles
ULM 105
Clemson 110
UCLA 112
ULL 123
Duke 122
CMich 124
A&M 153
OU 173
Ole Miss 167

too damm far
SMU 3794 miles
Fresno 2517
Navy 2465
SJSU 2419
Wisc 1662
Tulsa 1657
Oreg St 1711
Mich St 1618
GTech 1290
Baylor 1173
MInny 1059

*few of largest disparities

Texas (74) <> Oreg St (1711)
UCLA (112) <> Baylor (1173)
Ball St (873) <> UCF (93)
Tree (320) <> Wisc (1662)
Toledo (1657) <> Utah St (259)

Announcement

2012 ncaaf bowls

2012 ncaaf bowls

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