NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 15 (Thursday, December 13 - Monday, December 17)

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Sunday Night Football: Niners at Patriots

San Francisco 49ers at New England Patriots (-4.5, 46)

The sizzling New England Patriots looks for their eighth straight win when they host NFC powerhouse San Francisco in a battle royale on Sunday night. The Patriots continue to knock off challengers with ease while steadily climbing the ladder in the AFC standings. Once 1-2 on the season, New England looks to gain the top seed in the AFC to earn home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. After embarrassing Houston on Monday night, it stamped itself as the best team in the conference.

The 49ers have been a bit inconsistent since inserting the speedy Colin Kaepernick under center. Kaepernick, who is 3-1 as a starter since replacing Alex Smith at quarterback, sealed last week's 27-13 win over Miami with a 50-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter. RB Frank Gore, who went over the 1,000-yard mark in the game, continues to provide San Francisco with balance on offense but it’s clearly the Niners’ defense which makes them a Super Bowl threat. That unit ranks second in the NFL in total defense.

TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE: Patriots -4.5, O/U 46.5

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-30s with an 85 percent chance of rain. Winds will blow out of the east at 6 mph.

ABOUT THE 49ERS (9-3-1): Expect San Francisco to try to control the ball against the Patriots, who are the runaway leader in the NFL with 475 points scored. That could mean a big workload for Gore, who tied Roger Craig and Joe Perry for the franchise mark with his 50th career rushing touchdown last week. The 49ers rank second in the NFL in rushing, averaging over 160 yards a game on the ground, to take a lot of the pressure off the shoulders of Kaepernick. A week after Kaepernick struggled in a 16-13 overtime loss at St. Louis, the second-year pro went for 18-for-23 with a 100.2 passer rating. Aldon Smith continues to be a menace on defense and set the team mark with two more sacks against the Dolphins to give him 19.5 on the season.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (10-3): Tom Brady picked apart Houston last week, throwing four more touchdown passes, and stamped himself as the leader in the MVP race. Brady is tied for the NFL lead in passer rating and threw a pair of TD passes to tight end Aaron Hernandez, whose immense talent has allowed tight end Rob Gronkowski to recover from a broken forearm at his own pace. New England humiliated the Texans, who before the game labeled it as the biggest game in their franchise’s history. The Patriots, who are accustomed to playing big games, raced out to a 21-0 lead on the way to a 42-14 romp. New England continues to roll through the second half of recent seasons. The three-time Super Bowl champs have won 20 straight games at home in December.

TRENDS:

* 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Over is 4-1 in 49ers’ last five games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in Patriots’ last four vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 5-1 in Patriots’ last six December games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. San Francisco is 4-2 on the road. New England is 5-1 at home.

2. Brady has 29 touchdowns and just four interceptions this season. He has thrown a TD pass in 45 straight games, the third-longest streak in history.

3. The 49ers suspended little-used RB Brandon Jacobs for the rest of the season.

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Capping Sunday's must-win NFL games

It’s Week 15 and the playoff pressure is mounting for a handful of NFL teams. This week’s schedule features a pair of games that have both combatants fighting for their playoff lives.

Let’s break down a betting strategy for these key matchups that feature teams on the outside looking in with the help of the Covers Experts.

Minnesota Vikings at St. Louis Rams (-1, 39)

The Vikings proved they’ve still got some fight left in them after last week’s win over the Bears in Chicago. Minnesota shot out of the gates with a 5-1 SU record, but is just 3-5 since. The Rams are headed in the opposite direction. St. Louis is 3-0 SU and ATS over its last three overall, including a huge victory over the Niners in Week 13.

“I often feel that desperation is a factor oddsmakers have a hard time properly quantifying into a line," says Covers Expert David Chan. "Did that team start the year red-hot, only to stumble through the middle of the season and then find itself in a must-win game near the end of the year (Vikings)? Or did it start slowly, and then come on like gangbusters to end the season, needing one or two more wins to keep its playoff hopes alive (Rams)?”

Adrian Peterson has carried the Vikings all season long, but he faces a tough Rams run defense this week.

“While they likely won't be able to shut him down entirely, I do feel that the Rams will be more successful in slowing Peterson down than other teams have been lately,” says Covers Expert Ben Burns. “The Rams haven't allowed any running back to gain more than 65 yards against them in the last four games.”

Pittsburgh Steelers at Dallas Cowboys (+1, 44)

There’s no shortage of storylines coming into this game for the Cowboys. They’re still dealing with the death of Jerry Brown and now have concerns about the health of WR Dez Bryant.

“The biggest thing about this matchup is the emotional state of the Cowboys,” says Covers Expert Steve Merril. “We saw the Chiefs play well and then struggle the following week after their tragedy and you have to wonder if Dallas will have that problem this week.”

Bryant has vowed to play this week despite nursing a fractured left index finger. But can bettors expect the same offensive output from him this week?

“I feel the Bryant injury is a big deal," notes Covers Expert Bryan Power. “It severely limits what the Cowboys can do in the passing game, and keep in mind they’re facing the No. 1 pass defense in the league."

Another thing to keep in mind is how horrible Dallas is against the spread at home this season. They've failed to cover in all six games.

The Steelers hung on for dear life when Ben Roethlisberger fell to shoulder and rib injuries. Charlie Batch found some muster in his old legs to keep them in the playoff hunt, but Big Ben showed some rust in last week’s loss to the Chargers and put his team's back against the wall.

“Big Ben should bounce back this week as he is the ultimate competitor, although historically he's not as strong on the road with 38 career wins and a 90.1 QB rating, says Covers Expert Chris Elliott. "This game comes down to whoever runs the ball effectively. Expect a low- scoring game and a tight finish.”

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NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 15

Each week, we break down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 15:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-4, 53.5)

Buccaneers’ ball-hawking defense vs. Saints’ turnover troubles

The obvious mismatch in this NFC South showdown is the Saints’ powerful passing attack versus the Bucs’ busted pass defense. However, a quick look at New Orleans’ numbers against the Giants last week will take the shine off that battle. Drew Brees passed for 354 yards but was picked off twice – his ninth interception in the last three games – while New Orleans also lost two fumbles.

Tampa Bay may be getting burned by opposing QBs but they have capitalized when those arms made mistakes. The Bucs have picked off 17 passes this season – fourth in the NFL – and took three of those back to the house. Veteran corner Ronde Barber leads the team with four INTs and is probably the one player in the NFL that knows Brees the best. He recorded an INT in Tampa Bay’s loss to New Orleans in Week 7.

Washington Redskins at Cleveland Browns (+1, 43.5)

Redskins’ hobbled QB Robert Griffin III vs. Browns’ sack attack

Despite some tight lips in the nation’s capital this week, it appears that Robert Griffin III will play on a gimpy right knee Sunday. Griffin suffered a sprained ACL against Baltimore last week and is officially listed as questionable. The dual-threat rookie QB went through Wednesday’s practice without issue but will be tested by a relentless pass rush in Cleveland.

The brightest spot for the Browns is their ability to get to the quarterback. Cleveland ranks seventh in the NFL with 34 sacks this season, including five versus former QB Brady Quinn in a win over Kansas City last weekend. You can expect the Browns will bring pressure early and test the mobility of RG3 and his wonky knee. Add to that some slick playing conditions in Cleveland, with a 54 percent chance of rain and winds getting up around 15 mph.

Carolina Panthers at San Diego Chargers (-3, 44.5)

Panthers’ coach Ron Rivera vs. Chargers’ coach Norv Turner

Panthers head coach Ron Rivera is well schooled in the “Book of Norv”, having spent four seasons as Turner’s assistant with the Chargers, two as the Bolts’ defensive coordinator. When Rivera took the gig in Carolina, he raided the cupboards and took offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski and secondary coach Steve Wilks with him.

Turner isn’t just going up against three former pupils but also his own son, Scott, who is the Panthers offensive quality control coach. The two usually talk every day but have had radio silence since last Sunday. Turner is on his way out of San Diego after a disappointing season and won’t be throwing any wrinkles into this usual bag of tricks. There won’t be many surprises for the Panthers coaches Sunday.

San Francisco 49ers at New England Patriots (-5, 46)

Niners’ crappy kick coverage vs. Patriots’ sound special teams

In a game this tight, every yard is going to matter and field position may just dictate the winner. The Niners are a solid unit on both sides of the ball but their glaring weakness is on special teams. San Francisco has allowed foes to average 28.1 yards per kick return – worst in the NFL. The 49ers gave up some big returns to Miami last weekend, allowing an average of 30.6 yards per return on five kickoffs.

New England’s special teams are far from dangerous but they do have touchdowns on both kickoff and punt returns this season. The Patriots have shown more life on punt returns, averaging 14 yards per return. On the other side of the ball, New England allows just 20.3 yards per kickoff (third lowest) and 5.9 yards per punt (fourth lowest).

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Alright, Bum! Thank you very much! Here's a little more......

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Capping Sunday's must-win NFL games

It’s Week 15 and the playoff pressure is mounting for a handful of NFL teams. This week’s schedule features a pair of games that have both combatants fighting for their playoff lives.

Let’s break down a betting strategy for these key matchups that feature teams on the outside looking in with the help of the Covers Experts.

Minnesota Vikings at St. Louis Rams (-1, 39)

The Vikings proved they’ve still got some fight left in them after last week’s win over the Bears in Chicago. Minnesota shot out of the gates with a 5-1 SU record, but is just 3-5 since. The Rams are headed in the opposite direction. St. Louis is 3-0 SU and ATS over its last three overall, including a huge victory over the Niners in Week 13.

“I often feel that desperation is a factor oddsmakers have a hard time properly quantifying into a line," says Covers Expert David Chan. "Did that team start the year red-hot, only to stumble through the middle of the season and then find itself in a must-win game near the end of the year (Vikings)? Or did it start slowly, and then come on like gangbusters to end the season, needing one or two more wins to keep its playoff hopes alive (Rams)?”

Adrian Peterson has carried the Vikings all season long, but he faces a tough Rams run defense this week.

“While they likely won't be able to shut him down entirely, I do feel that the Rams will be more successful in slowing Peterson down than other teams have been lately,” says Covers Expert Ben Burns. “The Rams haven't allowed any running back to gain more than 65 yards against them in the last four games.”

Pittsburgh Steelers at Dallas Cowboys (+1, 44)

There’s no shortage of storylines coming into this game for the Cowboys. They’re still dealing with the death of Jerry Brown and now have concerns about the health of WR Dez Bryant.

“The biggest thing about this matchup is the emotional state of the Cowboys,” says Covers Expert Steve Merril. “We saw the Chiefs play well and then struggle the following week after their tragedy and you have to wonder if Dallas will have that problem this week.”

Bryant has vowed to play this week despite nursing a fractured left index finger. But can bettors expect the same offensive output from him this week?

“I feel the Bryant injury is a big deal," notes Covers Expert Bryan Power. “It severely limits what the Cowboys can do in the passing game, and keep in mind they’re facing the No. 1 pass defense in the league."

Another thing to keep in mind is how horrible Dallas is against the spread at home this season. They've failed to cover in all six games.

The Steelers hung on for dear life when Ben Roethlisberger fell to shoulder and rib injuries. Charlie Batch found some muster in his old legs to keep them in the playoff hunt, but Big Ben showed some rust in last week’s loss to the Chargers and put his team's back against the wall.

“Big Ben should bounce back this week as he is the ultimate competitor, although historically he's not as strong on the road with 38 career wins and a 90.1 QB rating, says Covers Expert Chris Elliott. "This game comes down to whoever runs the ball effectively. Expect a low- scoring game and a tight finish.”

[Udog]

Where the action is: Sunday's NFL line moves

Pittsburgh at Dallas – Open: pick, Move: +1.5

Dez Bryant is likely to play despite nursing a fractured left index finger in this clash between two teams vying for a playoff spot, but that hasn’t stopped the flood of money coming in on the away team.

“Public betting has moved the Pitt line with a 2-to-1 bet count and one-sided volume,” says Brent. “The sharps haven’t gotten involved in this matchup as of yet. This may end up being a large decision game for the books.”

New York at Atlanta – Open: pick, Move: -1.5

This battle between division leaders is a tough game to handicap, causing a tug of war between sharps and the betting public.

“This game has seen a public vs. sharp opinion,” says Brent. “The public has poured in bets backing the Giants. The result of those opposite opinions has created a 3-to-1 bet count in favor of the Gmen, but a contrasting 2-to-1 money position favoring the Falcons.”

San Francisco at New England – Open: -3, Move: -4.5

The betting public is infatuated with the Patriots after their dominant win over the Texans last week. And who can blame them?

“The bet count on this game is currently coming in at 3-to-1 for the Pats with a lot of teasers in play for the spread on this game as well," notes Brent. “The sharps have not had much say on the side in this match up, but they did raid the total early hitting the under 48.”

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Right on dog....no problem.....

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NFL

Monday, December 17

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Monday Night Football: Jets at Titans
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New York Jets at Tennessee Titans (-1, 42)

The New York Jets remain an unlikely contender for a postseason spot and will seek their third straight victory when they visit the Tennessee Titans on Monday night. Despite an offense that remains in shambles, New York has posted back-to-back victories over the Arizona Cardinals and Jacksonville Jaguars - teams with a combined one win in the last nine games - to stay within striking distance of the No. 6 seed in the AFC. The Titans are the latest struggling opponent for the Jets, having lost three straight and five of six. Tennessee has issues on both sides of the ball, with the defense surrendering at least 30 points in seven of the first nine games and the offense having bogged down since quarterback Jake Locker returned from injury.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Titans -1, O/U 42

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-50s with partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out of the west at 8 mph.

ABOUT THE JETS (6-7): With Mark Sanchez continuing to flounder, New York finally reverted to its preseason promise of a ground-and-pound attack in last week's 17-10 win at Jacksonville. Bilal Powell rushed for 78 yards and a TD on 19 carries and Shonn Greene had 77 yards and a score on 20 rushes. That allowed coach Rex Ryan to keep the ball out of the hands of Sanchez, who threw for only 111 yards after being benched the previous week in favor of third-stringer Greg McIlroy. New York's receiving corps has been decimated by injuries, leading to the decision to bring back well-traveled veteran Braylon Edwards earlier this week. The Jets' defense has permitted a combined 16 points in the last two games after getting shredded for 49 by New England on Thanksgiving night.

ABOUT THE TITANS (4-9): Locker missed five games earlier in the season due to injury and he has shown little progression since returning to the lineup. The second-year QB has thrown seven interceptions in the past three games, including one from his own end zone that helped wipe out Tennessee's 13-point halftime lead against Indianapolis a week ago. Despite his struggles - among the reasons for the dismissal of offensive coordinator Chris Palmer - the Titans are not shy about having Locker air it out. He's attempted an average of 40 passes in the last three games, and they are not coming when the team is forced to play catch-up. Running back Chris Johnson has rushed for 1,000 yards for five straight seasons, but he is averaging only 3.3 yards per carry in the last three games.

TRENDS:

* Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.
* Titans are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Jets are 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Under is 6-0-1 in Titans’ last seven games vs. a team with a losing record.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Tennessee has won four of its last five Monday night games.

2. Edwards was claimed off waivers from Seattle this week despite posting on his Twitter account that New York's management was "idiots" for the way Sanchez has been utilized.

3. Titans TE Jared Cook, the team's second-leading receiver, is done for the season after suffering a torn rotator cuff in last week's game.


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NFL

Monday, December 17

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Tale of the tape: Jets at Titans
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Take a quick glance at the tale of the tape for Monday night’s showdown between the New York Jets and Tennessee Titans.

Offense

Mark Sanchez has continued to struggle despite less-than-stellar competition. The Jets' embattled quarterback is 22 of 40 for 208 yards with three interceptions and a fumble over the last two games. With Sanchez continuing to flounder, New York finally reverted to its preseason promise of a ground-and-pound attack in last week's 17-10 win at Jacksonville. Bilal Powell rushed for 78 yards and a TD on 19 carries and Shonn Greene had 77 yards and a score on 20 rushes. New York's receiving corps has been decimated by injuries, leading to the decision to bring back well-traveled veteran Braylon Edwards (hamstring) earlier this week. He is probable to suit up Monday night.

Titans QB Jake Locker missed five games earlier in the season due to injury and he has shown little progression since returning to the lineup. The second-year QB has thrown seven interceptions in the past three games, including one from his own end zone that helped wipe out Tennessee's 13-point halftime lead against Indianapolis a week ago. Running back Chris Johnson has rushed for 1,000 yards for five straight seasons, but is averaging only 3.3 yards per carry in the last three games. Tight end Jared Cook, the team's second-leading receiver, is done for the season after suffering a torn rotator cuff in last week's game.

Edge: Titans


Defense

The Jets' defense has permitted a combined 16 points in the last two games after getting shredded for 49 by New England on Thanksgiving night. But keep in mind those dominant performances the past two weeks were against the NFL’s two worst offenses (Arizona, Jacksonville).

The Titans put together a dominant defensive first half — holding the Colts to 111 total yards, sacking Andrew Luck three times last week. The Tennessee stop unit limited the league’s third-best offense at the time to 269 yards and 4-of-12 third-down conversions. It also scored a touchdown. The Titans allow an average of 127 rushing yards, tied for 23rd in the league.

Edge: Jets


Special teams

The Jets rank eighth in opponents’ kickoff-return average and lead the league with 22 opponents’ drives starting inside their own 20. Kicker Nick Folk has made only 76 percent of his field goal attempts this season, ranking him 32nd in the league in that category.

Titans return specialist Darius Reynaud enjoyed success early in the season, but teams are now avoiding him. He returned just one punt for 14 yards in last week’s loss to the Colts and was ripped by the local media for his poor decision-making the week before against Houston. Rob Bironas and Brett Kern are one of the better kicking/punting duos in the league.

Edge: Titans


Word on the street

“Big, talented, physical guy (Locker). Almost has a mentality of a running back when he takes off with it. Obviously, he’s a great athlete, he has a big arm. He’s a guy, certainly, you have to worry about. Not only with his arm, but his scrambling ability as well.” – Jets head coach Rex Ryan on Jake Locker.

“We have a young quarterback and most teams have to decide, do we want to try to confuse him and go after him, or make him read coverage? I'm sure they'll do a little bit of both.” – Titans head coach Mike Munchak on what he expects from the Jets defense.


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