NFL Week 15 Including Thursday Play

[roccodean]

more to follow

1*: .66-.75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units


2* Phil +3.5 over Cinci (possible upgrade)
2* at +3 or better
This is the perfect storm for Philly to get the W here. Cinci was hot with playoff aspirations and were up 19-10 to Dallas and then got beat. They are still in the hunt, but I love going against teams that won a few games in a row, then lose one (the line is often inflated). On the other hand, Philly is playing for nothing and is playing loose. Foles looked good last week throwing for 380+ yards. Cinci is a young team that is forced to travel on a short week after getting their hearts ripped out. Phil averages 4.7 YPR (5th) vs Cinci's D that is 15th vs the run. Cinci's pass D is average (12th). Cinci is average offensively (12th in YPR and 14th in YPPA). There is a solid long term trend favoring Philly that is 182-126 ATS. Also, teams playing road non-conf games (Cinci) before they play a road division game are14-37 SU and 18-33 ATS. Home teams are 35-22 against the spread since the NFL debuted Thursday Night Football in 2006. Philly applies to a 31-6 ATS subset of this.

[roccodean]

took half my bet at 3.5 and going to wait to see if can get 4+ after public talks on cinci

[roccodean]

Phil +4.5...grab it while its hot! Like money line too...think great chance win SU

[roccodean]

1* Pit over Dallas (possible 2* upgrade)
Play at -2.5 or better
Dallas stinks...there I said it. They average 3.4 YPR (dead last in NFL) and they are 11th in YPPA. Defensively they allow 4.5 YPR (23rd) and are 23rd in YPPA. Pittsburgh has been up and down the last few weeks, but now that Ben had another week to heal I think they get the win here. They are off a fav loss of 7+ which puts them in a great position for the W here. Dallas is not going to put points on the board. They only allow 3.7 YPR (4th in NFL) and are 1st in the league in YPPA. They will be able to take advantage of Dallas' weak D. There is a 154-94 ATS trend favoring Pitt. My line is Pit -3.

[yabmane]

You can get Phila +5 right now.

[roccodean]

You can get Phila +5 right now.

5.5 now......arhhhhh...hopefully doesnt come into play

[ravenmaniac]

Gl RD

[roccodean]

Phil officially 3*...love em

[Kaptain]

gl tonight rocco

[jt4545]

Good luck tonight

[Sirporkie]

GL Rocco. I like the eagles play

[roccodean]

1* Chicago +3 over GB (possible 2* upgrade)
Play at +3 or better
Statistically GB is only slightly better than Chic, so I will take the FG with the home dog here. GB's only statstical advantage is Rodgers (9th in YPPA), but Chi has one of the best pass D's in the league (4th in YPPA). Other than that they are very similar. GB is 20th in YPR and Chi is 18th. Defensively GB is 24th vs the run and Chi 22nd. So I am getting a home div dog that should be a pick 'em as a FG dog...I'll take it. GB has been overvalued all year because the public loves betting them, so I am going to take advantage


locked in Pit -1

[roccodean]

May add:Oak,Ariz,Ten,SF,Hou tease (if can get 2.5,not sure other side maybe Cle at>7). Already took SF +6 small when it was avail just bc thought that was best line but might buy back.

[ravenmaniac]

Saw a stat the other day that was interesting but I don't have the guts to play em. Since 2002 teams that have lost by 50 points or more are 11-2 ATS the next game. If the Cards had even a half ass QB I would have taken them, but not with the group they have.

[roccodean]

Saw a stat the other day that was interesting but I don't have the guts to play em. Since 2002 teams that have lost by 50 points or more are 11-2 ATS the next game. If the Cards had even a half ass QB I would have taken them, but not with the group they have.

agree raven....Teams losing by 35 or more points are 68-46 ATS the following week...dont know if have the sack to take Ariz