NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Bowl Season (Saturday, December 15 - Monday, January 7)

[Udog]

NCAAF

Friday, January 4

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Cotton Bowl: What bettors need to know
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Texas A&M Aggies vs. Oklahoma Sooners (+3, 73.5)

WHEN: 8:00 PM ET, Friday, January 4, 2013
WHERE: Cowboys Stadium, Arlington, Texas

AT&T COTTON BOWL GAME STORYLINES

1. Former Big 12 rivals Oklahoma and Texas A&M are set to square off in the Cotton Bowl, which features the added attraction of Heisman Trophy winner Johnny Manziel. The freshman quarterback accounted for 4,600 yards and 43 touchdowns and led the Aggies to a 10-2 record in their first season in the SEC.

2. Oklahoma has dominated the series against Texas A&M in recent years, with the Sooners going 11-2 under coach Bob Stoops, including wins in eight of the last nine meetings.

3. Texas A&M’s first 10-win season since 1998 was highlighted by a 29-24 victory over then-No. 1 Alabama on No. 10, while the Sooners’ two losses came by a combined eight points against opponents with a combined 21-3 record.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE: Texas A&M opened as a 3-point favorite and was bet up to as high as -4.5 before money on OU brought the spread back to -3. The total has moved from 71.5 to 73.5.

CONSENSUS: 59 percent of Covers Consensus picks are on Texas A&M while 61 percent are on the over.

TRENDS:

* Home team is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 meetings. Aggies are the Texas team in this matchup at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Aggies are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings.

ABOUT TEXAS A&M (10-2, 6-2 SEC, 7-5 ATS): This figures to be a high-scoring contest with the Aggies ranked third in the country in scoring at 44.8 points per game and Oklahoma tied for 12th at 40.2 points. Both teams are riding five-game winning streaks, with the Aggies’ only losses coming to Florida and LSU. Manziel is a true duel threat for the Aggies, who are 7-0 when he rushes for more than 100 yards. Texas A&M ranks 13th in the country in rushing offense at 235.1 yards per game, and the Aggies will look to establish their ground game behind offensive tackle Luke Joeckel, who received the Outland Award as the nation’s top interior lineman. Texas A&M allowed only 22.5 points per game, led by defensive end Damontre Moore's 12.5 sacks. The Aggies’ return game has been solid, but kicker Taylor Bertolet only made 13 of his 22 field goal attempts.

ABOUT OKLAHOMA (10-2, 8-1 Big 12, 6-6 ATS): Senior quarterback Landry Jones, who ranks fifth in the nation with 332.4 passing yards per game, is 3-0 in bowl games heading into his 50th and final career start. The Sooners scored 125 points in their last three games, and their offensive line allowed only six sacks in nine Big 12 contests. Wide receiver Kenny Stills has a team-high 11 touchdown receptions and junior Damien Williams led the ground attack with 902 yards rushing and 12 touchdowns. The Sooners boast the Big 12’s top pass defense, and safety Tony Jefferson led the team with 113 tackles. Oklahoma has forced 14 turnovers in the last nine games, with 11 coming off interceptions. The Sooners could be without wide receiver/punt returner Jalen Saunders, whose status is in doubt after he was arrested for marijuana possession on Dec. 2.


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[Udog]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Season

Saturday, January 5

Compass Bowl (Birmingham, AL)
Pitt is playing in this game for third year in row, which usually raises a red flag towards player apathy, but Panthers breathed sigh of relief when coach Chryst didn't bolt to Wisconsin; that would've been nightmare for Pitt program that is headed to ACC next year. Chryst is Pitt's 4th coach in last three years; they're 2-3 in last five bowls, scoring just 11.8 ppg. Ole Miss is in first bowl since '09; they figure to have crowd edge, since new coach Freeze has raised hopes in Oxford. Rebels won three of last four bowls, but last three were all Cotton Bowls- their last minor bowl was '02 win over Nebraska in Shreveport. Ole Miss is 8-3 vs spread this year, 4-1 as a favorite; all six teams that beat them are better than Pitt, whose QB Sunseri is son of former Alabama assistant coach who was at Tennessee this year, but Vols didn't play Ole Miss. Underdogs are 16-15 vs spread in bowls this season; under is 19-13. Big East teams are 3-1 in bowl games this year, 3-0 vs spread as underdogs. SEC teams are 4-3 SU/ATS; they've been favored in every game.

[Udog]

NCAAF

Saturday, January 5

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Compass Bowl: What bettors need to know
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Pittsburgh vs. Mississippi (-3, 53.5)

When: 1:00 PM ET, Saturday, January 5, 2013
Where: Legion Field, Birmingham, Alabama

BBVA COMPASS BOWL STORYLINES

1. Pittsburgh will be playing in Birmingham for the third straight year, but for the first time with the same man who coached the team during the regular season (Paul Chryst). Dave Wannstedt was fired prior to the team’s 27-10 win over Kentucky after the 2010 season before Todd Graham missed last season's 28-6 defeat against SMU to take over at Arizona State.

2. The Panthers boast a 3,000-yard passer and 1,000-yard rusher in the same season for the first time in school history. Tino Sunseri has thrown for 3,103 yards – the third highest single-season total by a Pittsburgh quarterback – while running back Ray Graham recovered from preseason knee surgery and has rushed for 1,042 yards.

3. Mississippi will be making its first bowl appearance since the 2009 season under first-year coach Hugh Freeze. Like Chryst – who was rumored to be a top candidate for the Wisconsin opening before Utah State's Gary Andersen accepted the job – Freeze will be staying put after signing an extension and leading the Rebels back to .500 after a dismal 2-10 record last season under Houston Nutt.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Mississippi -3, O/U 53.5.

CONSENSUS: Over 59 percent of Covers Consensus players like Ole Miss to cover and 61 percent are on the under.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-40s with a 30 percent chance of showers. Winds will be calm.

TRENDS:

* Under is 6-0 in Panthers’ last six bowl games.
* Rebels are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four neutral site games.
* Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last four non-conference games.

ABOUT PITTSBURGH (6-6, 3-4 Big East): The Panthers – who will move to the Atlantic Coast Conference next season – will be appearing in a bowl game for the fifth consecutive year and have reason to feel optimistic about their chances after a 4-2 finish, including a near-upset of No. 1 Notre Dame. Graham has already solidified his place among the most productive running backs in school history as he enters his final college game with 3,271 yards rushing and 4,943 all-purpose yards – both good for second place all-time with the Panthers. The Panthers committed only eight turnovers this season – tied with Ohio for the fewest in FBS.

ABOUT MISSISSIPPI (6-6, 3-5 SEC): The Rebels are 21-12 all-time in bowl games and have won eight of their past nine in the postseason. Quarterback Bo Wallace, who paced the Rebels with eight rushing scores, leads a ground game that has scored 23 touchdowns and averaged 169.7 yards this season in Freeze’s spread attack. Wallace threw for 294 yards and five touchdowns in the team’s last game – a 41-24 victory over Mississippi State – but moving the ball may not come as easy since Pittsburgh’s defense ranks in the top 25 in several categories: total (16th), scoring (21st), pass (24th) and rush (tied for 24th).


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[Udog]

Where the action is: Remaining bowl games

Bowl season is winding down, but some of the most anticipated matchups are still to come. We talk with online sportsbook BetDSI.eu about the biggest line moves on the board.

Compass Bowl

Pitt vs. Ole Miss (-3, 53.5)

Not a lot of betting on the side for this game as of yet, but the current bet and money counts are both about a 2-to-1 position in favor of Ole Miss. There was some sharp money on the over at the 51, 51.5, and 52 values pushing that total to its current 54 value. The money wagered is about 2-to-1 on the over and as the public chimes in, that number will more than likely escalate even further by kick off.


Go Daddy.com Bowl

Arkansas State vs. Kent State (-3.5, 61)

Most of the volume here has favored Arkansas State at the -3 number. There has been decent movement on the game, but nothing really sharp backing either side to this point. Arkansas St. is seeing a lean in its favor with almost a 2-to-1 in wager count and money wagered slightly favors Kent State. There was some respected money that did come in on the total at 61.5.


BCS Championship Game

Alabama vs. Notre Dame (9.5, 40.5)

Sharp money hit Alabama early at +7.5, +8, and +8.5, pushing the current line value to 9.5. The current situation and expectation is the public will be somewhat split on this game as it heads towards kick off. Sharp money is also backing the under at the 41 and 41.5 values. The total has a 2-to-1 money wagered lean on the under and the line is currently sitting at the 40 value.

[Udog]

NCAAF

Sunday, January 6

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GoDaddy.com Bowl: What bettors need to know
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Kent State vs. Arkansas State (-3.5, 62)

When: 9:00 PM ET, Sunday, January 6, 2013
Where: Ladd-Peebles Stadium, Mobile, Alabama

GODADDY.COM BOWL STORYLINES

1. Arkansas State and Kent State are victims of their own success, with both coaches taking jobs at other schools since the regular season concluded. Kent State's Darrell Hazell, the new coach at Purdue, is sticking around for the bowl game. Meanwhile, an interim coach leads Arkansas State into the Godaddy.com Bowl for the second consecutive season. Defensive coordinator John Thompson will lead the Red Wolves after Gus Malzahn left to take over at Auburn.

2. There are three 1,000-yard rushers in this game. Arkansas State's David Oku racked up 1,043 yards after spending 2011 completely out of football following his transfer out of Tennessee. Kent State has Trayion Durham and Dri Archer, the latter of whom was a consensus All-American at the kick return/all-purpose position. He's the first consensus honoree in Kent State history.

3. The key matchup is whether Kent State can slow down the Red Wolves' passing game. The Golden Flashes ranked 11th in the MAC and 108th nationally in pass defense, allowing 276.5 yards. That could be bad news against Arkansas State quarterback Ryan Aplin, the two-time Sun Belt Offensive Player of the Year who holds Sun Belt career records for total offense and passing yardage, and broke his own school record for single-season touchdowns with 23.

TV: 9 p.m. ET, ESPN

LINE: Arkansas State -3.5, O/U 62

CONSENSUS: Covers Consensus players are split 50/50 on who will cover while 71 percent are on the over.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-40s with clear skies. Winds will be light out of the north at 5 mph.

TRENDS:

* Red Wolves are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Golden Flashes are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 6-1 in Golden Flashes’ last seven vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 14-4-1 in Red Wolves’ last 19 non-conference games.

ABOUT KENT STATE (11-2, 8-1 MAC): The Golden Flashes won the East Division title in the MAC and is making their first bowl appearance since December 1972. Archer logged a 38.2-yard average on kickoff returns with three returns for touchdowns. Archer, who's scored 22 total touchdowns in 13 games, is the only player in the country with more than 1,300 yards rushing and 500 receiving. He also threw a 24-yard touchdown pass this season. Linebacker Luke Batton is the Golden Flashes' top defensive player. He has 132 total tackles and ranks as one of the top 20 most prolific defenders in the country. Kent State ranks second in Division I in turnover margin and - with 38 takeaways - is tied with Oregon for the nation's lead. The Golden Flashes have solid special teams. In addition to Archer's exploits as a returner, Kent State led the MAC in net punting and kicker Freddy Cortez closed the season with six straight made field goals.

ABOUT ARKANSAS STATE (9-3, 7-1 Sun Belt): The Red Wolves finished the regular season strong, scoring 131 total points in their final three games and topping 500 yards of offense in each of those contests. Arkansas State can break the school record for points in a season by scoring 20, a safe bet considering the Red Wolves topped 30 points in 11 of 13 games. Freshman wide receiver J.D. McKissic is Aplin's top target and - with 92 catches - needs three more to break the single-season reception record. Thompson, who in his first season as defensive coordinator, helped Arkansas State lead the Sun Belt in scoring defense for the second straight year. Linebacker Nathan Herrold has 109 tackles, the first Arkansas State defender to reach triple digits since 2007. Placekicker Brian Davis is a reliable weapon, with 40 made field goals for his career and a school-record 100 points this season.


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[Udog]

NCAAF

Monday, January 7

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BCS Championship Game: What bettors need to know
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Alabama vs. Notre Dame (9.5, 40.5)

When: 8:30 PM ET, Monday, January 7, 2013
Where: Sun Life Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida

BCS CHAMPIONSHIP GAME STORYLINES

1. Two of the most storied programs in college football history will square off for the national championship when undefeated and top-ranked Notre Dame collides with No. 2 and reigning champion Alabama on Jan. 7 at Miami's Sun Life Stadium. Despite its unrivaled tradition, Notre Dame has not won a national title since 1988 and has not been atop the rankings since 1993. Alabama, meanwhile, will be chasing its third national championship in the past four years under Nick Saban, who has restored the luster to one of the few programs that can stand up to Notre Dame's legacy. The teams have met six times, with the Fighting Irish winning five.

2. Notre Dame entered the season as an afterthought but slowly climbed up the rankings behind a bruising defense - led by standout linebacker Manti Te'o - that smothered one opponent after another. The Fighting Irish allowed a nation-low 10.3 points per game and withstood a number of close calls as its offense continued to evolve. Notre Dame's formula was similar to the one that brought two championships to Alabama and third-year coach Brian Kelly readily admits he used the Crimson Tide's style of play as a blueprint to get the Irish back into the national picture.

3. There's something to be said for been there, done that, and Alabama's recent experience on the biggest stage cannot be overlook. Never was that more apparent than in last season's BCS championship game, when the Crimson Tide avenged their only regular season loss with a dominating defensive effort in a 21-0 victory over LSU. And while Notre Dame always plays a schedule dotted with top programs, Alabama is part of college football's best conference in the SEC, which, by the way, has won all six BCS title games since its inception in 2006.

4. The Fighting Irish have been utilizing the no-respect card as a motivator throughout the season, and the oddsmakers provided them with more fuel by installing the one-loss Crimson Tide as a 10-point favorite. Notre Dame played perhaps its best game in a 30-13 rout at Oklahoma on Oct. 27 - another contest in which it was a huge underdog and the consensus was that the Irish could not compete.

5. Few would argue that Kelly has done the best coaching job in the country this season in compiling his second 12-0 regular season in four years (the previous one was at Cincinnati in 2009). But Saban is looked upon as a modern-day Bear Bryant in Tuscaloosa, not only winning two national titles with Alabama but claiming one at LSU in 2003. There have been whispers that Saban could be NFL-bound after the season, but he has steadfastly denied the rumors.

TV: 8:30 p.m., ESPN.

LINE: Alabama -9.5, O/U 40.5. Sharp money hit Alabama early at +7.5, +8, and +8.5, pushing the current line value to 9.5, according to BetDSI.eu. The current situation and expectation is the public will be somewhat split on this game as it heads towards kick off. Sharp money is also backing the under at the 41 and 41.5 values. The total has a 2-to-1 money wagered lean on the under and the line is currently sitting at the 40.5 value.

CONSENSUS: Over 65 percent of Covers Consensus players like Notre Dame to cover and 55 percent are on the over.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-70s with partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out of the ENE at 8 mph.

TRENDS:

* Crimson Tide are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Fighting Irish are 4-1 ATS in their last five neutral site games.
* Over is 5-1 in Crimson Tide’s last six bowl games.
* Under is 20-5-1 in Fighting Irish’s last 26 games on grass.

ABOUT ALABAMA (12-1, 7-1 SEC): The Crimson Tide will be happy to match muscle vs. muscle with Notre Dame's defense behind a powerhouse offensive line that averages 315 pounds per man. Alabama has a pair of 1,000-yard backs in junior Eddie Lacy and freshman T.J. Yeldon, who combined for 27 touchdowns and piled up 334 yards in the SEC title game win over Georgia. Quarterback AJ McCarron threw for 26 touchdowns against only three interceptions and showed he was much more than a caretaker of the offense by leading late drives to beat LSU and Georgia. His top weapon is Amari Cooper, who has 53 receptions and nine touchdowns. Notre Dame's defense has been getting all the publicity, but the Crimson Tide have their own elite linebacker in C.J. Mosley and held 10 opponents to less than 14 points while recording four shutouts.

ABOUT NOTRE DAME (12-0): Te'o, the Heisman Trophy runner-up, is the heart and soul of a defense that permitted only nine touchdowns overall and two on the ground. He has seven interceptions and played behind a stellar defensive front featuring ends Stephon Tuitt (12 sacks) and Kapron Lewis-Moore sandwiching the massive Louis Nix III. Notre Dame's running back corps of Theo Riddick, Cierre Wood and George Atkinson III combined for 2,000 yards and will test a defense that allowed a national-low 246 yards. Still, Notre Dame's offense revolves around dual-threat quarterback Everett Golson. He threw for 11 touchdowns against five interceptions and had four of of his five-highest passing totals in November. Golson also rushed for 305 yards and five scores and his ability to keep the chains moving against Alabama's defense will be vital.


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[Udog]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, January 7

BCS National Championship Game (Miami)
SEC teams won last six BCS championship games, covering last five as a favorite; only one of six games was decided by less than 10 points, with an average total of 45.8. Brian Kelly won two national titles at D-II level at Grand Valley State, so he's won games like this. Notre Dame is 2-3 in last five bowls, 1-1 under Kelly- they're 6-3 vs spread as underdogs in Kelly era, 2-0 this year. Alabama crushed its first eight opponents, but in last five, they had pair of 4-point wins with loss to Texas A&M, and its mobile QB. Crimson Tide is 6-6 when favored this year, 0-2 if laying single digits; they're 2-6 vs spread last eight times they laid single digits, but also won last three bowls, last two by combined score of 70-7. Irish won five games by 7 or less points, beating Purdue/Pitt by 3 points each; Pitt is only team all year that scored more than 17 points against Notre Dame. Alabama has experience edge at QB, Favorites are 17-16 against spread overall in bowls this season, covering last four; under is 20-14. SEC teams are 5-3 in bowls, 4-3-1 vs spread this season.