NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Bowl Season (Saturday, December 15 - Monday, January 7)

[Udog]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Season

Monday, December 31

Music City Bowl (Nashville)
NC State fired Tom O’Brien after 7-5 year with senior QB that was expected to be better; have to believe Wilson’s success with Seahawks (he was basically cut by O’Brien before his senior year with Wolfpack) had something to do with it. Interim coach is OC Bible; interesting to see if he turns senior QB loose more than conservative O’Brien did. Vandy gets home game after winning last six games; they’re 2-2-1 in bowls in school history; this is first time they’ve gone to bowls in consecutive years. Commodores won this game 16-14 (+3.5) over Boston College four years ago, ending BC’s long bowl winning streak- their QB now is Jordan Rodgers, Aaron’s little brother. Vandy scored 17 or less points in all four of its losses; they scored 40+ points in four of last five games, and are 4-2 vs spread when favored this year. State is 2-4 away from home, allowing 35-44-43-62 points in the losses, 7-18 in wins. ACC teams are 3-4 in this game last seven years, 3-0 vs spread as an underdog; overall, dogs covered six of last eight Music City Bowls.

Sun Bowl (El Paso)
Look at USC’s schedule this year and tell me who their best win is; 38-17 over Arizona State Nov 10? That was also their only win in last five games, as they closed regular season with losses to UCLA/Notre Dame- they allowed 38+ points in three of last five games, so HC Kiffin fired DC Kiffin, his dad (And highly respected NFL DC). Trojan players making noise about not liking El Paso area; team showed up hour late for banquet planned by bowl, so no faith that favored USC (3-7 as favorite this year) will show up and play solid game; then again, Georgia Tech is rare bowl team with losing record coming in- they fired their DC during year, have trouble coming from behind because their passing game isn’t good. Jackets scored 33+ points in all six wins; they’re 3-2 vs spread as underdog, but are 0-6 SU when scoring less than 33 points, with three losses by 6 or less points, four more by 16+ points. Pac-12 teams won six of last Sun Bowl appearances (weren’t here in ’10); Tech lost this game 30-27 (-2) to Utah LY, its fourth straight bowl loss (0-4 vs spread) under option-loving Johnson.

Liberty Bowl (Memphis)
Bowl rematches are rare, but because Iowa State travels well (sold their 10,000 tickets for this quickly) we have one here; Cyclones outgained Tulsa 441-358, beat Golden Hurricane 38-23 in season opener. Tulsa wound up as C-USA champs, beating UCF twice in three weeks, while 6-6 State is only here because bowls need to make money so they can stay in business. Golden Hurricane won six of seven games decided by seven or less points. With revenge on their side, hard to buck Tulsa; they won three of last four bowls, scoring 63-45-62 points in wins, 21 in loss LY to BYU. Iowa State split last four bowls, with three of them decided by 4 or less points- they scored 14-13 in bowls under Rhoads. C-USA clubs lost four of last six appearances in this bowl, but Tulsa won last 31-24 (+7) over Fresno State in ’05. No Big X team has played here in last nine years. Iowa State is 5-0 when it scores 35+ points, 1-6 when it does not; Tulsa held six of last seven opponents under 28 points.

Chick-fil-A Bowl (Atlanta)
Vandy/LSU are first SEC teams to play in bowls this year; problem for LSU backers is whether Bayou Bengals are excited to be here after being in national title game LY. LSU was 5-0 before losing at Florida; seemed liked they lost confidence after that, with only one of its last five wins by more than seven points. LSU covered only two of last seven games as a favorite. Clemson gave up 70 points to West Virginia in its bowl LY, fourth loss in last five bowls for Tigers, despite being favored in all five games; they lost 23-20 to Auburn in this game five years ago (-2). LSU is 3-2 in last five bowls, beating Georgia Tech 38-3 in this game four years ago. Underdogs covered five of last seven in this bowl, with SEC teams 5-2 vs ACC squads. Clemson won three games this year where they gave up 31+ points- that won't workhere vs defensively-stout LSU. Clemson is 5-2 vs spread as an dog under Swinney, who is Alabama grad. LSU won/covered five of seven bowls under Miles (four of five that weren't for national title).

[Udog]

New Year's Day bowl betting trends and stats

January 1 signifies a new year and with it a bevy of college football bowl games.

Let’s take a look at what’s trending for the upcoming New Year’s Day bowl card.

Stats since 1990 unless specified.

Bowling for dollars

Here is a look at the most recent trends for each of the five major bowl games on Jan. 1:

• Capital One Bowl: The favorite is 3-1 ATS the last four years and 5-7 ATS the last 12. All seven dog wins have been straight up.

• Gator Bowl: The favorite has cashed in each of the last two years, snapping a four-year run by the dogs.

• Orange Bowl: The favorite is 1-4 ATS the last five years, with the dog winning straight up four times.

• Outback Bowl: Of the eight ATS dog wins, six have been in straight-up fashion.

• Rose Bowl: Pac-10/12 teams are 6-1 SU and ATS in the last seven games versus Big Ten opponents.


The good, the bad and the ugly

Good numbers: SEC bowl teams off a SU favorite loss (Mississippi State) are 10-1 ATS… MAC bowlers off a win (Northern Illinois) are 9-3 ATS vs. a .600 or greater opponents off a win.

Bad numbers… Big Ten bowl dogs off a loss of 17 or more points (Nebraska) are 1-5 ATS.

Ugly numbers… Big Ten bowl teams off a win (Wisconsin) are 3-15 ATS versus Pac-10/12 opponents.


Coach me up

• Michigan’s Brady Hoke is 8-0 ATS off a SU/ATS loss when his team has a .500 or greater win percentage.

• South Carolina’s Steve Spurrier is 9-1 ATS off a win versus a non-conference opponent off a SU/ATS loss.

• Oklahoma State’s Mike Gundy is 6-1 ATS in games off a SU favorite loss.

• Wisconsin’s Barry Alvarez is 8-3 SU and 7-4 ATS in bowl games.

• Mississippi State’s Dan Mullen is 1-18 SU and 5-14 ATS versus .750 or greater opponents.

• Florida State’s Jimbo Fisher is 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS versus .800 or greater opponents.


New Year’s babies

Favorites on New Year’s Day bowl games have been out of this world dating back to 1990.

That’s confirmed by a 70-52 ATS overall mark.

The best role for New Year's Day chalk is when they take on opponents with soft defenses, those allowing 20 or more points per game on the season. They zoom to 31-14 ATS in those situations.

Georgia, Mississippi State and Oklahoma State look to follow suit on Jan. 1.


New resolution

In keeping with the tradition of making - then breaking - new promises for the New Year, let’s see whether Mississippi State maintains status quo today.

The Bulldogs were 8-0 SU versus non-bowlers, but 0-4 SU and ATS and ITS (In The Stats) versus fellow bowl teams, this season.


Stat of New Year's Day

The favorite is 14-2 ATS in Oklahoma State’s last 16 bowl games.

[Udog]

NCAAF

Tuesday, January 1

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Outback bowl: What bettors need to know
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South Carolina Gamecocks vs. Michigan Wolverines (+5.5, 48)

WHEN: 1:00 PM ET, Tuesday, January 1, 2013
WHERE: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida

OUTBACK BOWL STORYLINES

1. Quarterback Denard Robinson, who is from Deerfield Beach, Fla., will return home for No. 19 Michigan, but could be used all over the field in his final college game with the emergence of Devin Gardner. Robinson hasn’t attempted a pass since injuring his right elbow on Oct. 27 but ran for 220 yards while helping to replace injured running back Fitzgerald Toussaint. In the four games since Robinson’s injury, Gardner has thrown for 1,005 yards and accounted for 15 touchdowns.

2. Robinson and Gardner will have to account for defensive end Jadeveon Clowney, the Hendricks Award winner who was named a first-team All-American and SEC Defensive Player of the Year for No. 11 South Carolina after setting single-season school records with 13 sacks and 21½ tackles for loss.

3. Neither team will have the benefit of playing with the 1,000-yard running back they had back in September. The Gamecocks’ Marcus Lattimore suffered a devastating knee injury on the same day Robinson was hurt while Toussaint was lost for the season with his own significant leg injury on Nov. 17 against Iowa.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: South Carolina opened at -4.5 and was bet up as high as -6 before settling at -5.5. The total has moved from 48 to 47.5.

CONSENSUS: 61 percent of Covers Consensus picks are on South Carolina while 58 percent are on the over.

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for cloudy skies and temperatures in the low 70s. Winds are expected to blow south at 6 mph.

TRENDS:

* Gamecocks are 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games.
* Wolverines are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five bowl games.
* Under is 4-0 in Gamecocks' last four bowl games.
* Over is 5-1 in Wolverines last six bowl games.

ABOUT SOUTH CAROLINA (10-2, 6-2 SEC, 8-4 ATS): The Gamecocks, who posted consecutive seasons with double-digit victories for the first time in school history, will be playing in the Outback Bowl for the fourth time and seeking consecutive bowl wins for the first time in school history. Coach Steve Spurrier has yet to name a starter at quarterback position after Dylan Thompson threw for 310 yards and three touchdowns in place of the injured Connor Shaw during the Gamecocks’ 27-17 regular-season finale win at Clemson. The Gamecocks are 17-2 against non-conference opponents over the last four years, with their last such loss coming to Florida State in the 2010 Chick-fil-A Bowl.

ABOUT MICHIGAN (8-4, 6-2 Big Ten, 5-7 ATS): While neutralizing Clowney will play a key role in determining their success, the Wolverines’ may be up to the task of limiting his effectiveness after their offensive line allowed a Big Ten-low 15 sacks. The Wolverines’ second-ranked pass defense could be tested in this game after starting cornerback J.T. Floyd was one of three players suspended for this game because of a violation of team rules; punter Will Hagerup and backup linebacker Brandin Hawthorne were the others. The loss of Floyd could loom large against receivers Ace Sanders and Bruce Ellington, who have each posted 100 yards receiving in a game since Lattimore went down.


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[Udog]

NCAAF

Tuesday, January 1

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Rose Bowl: What bettors need to know
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Wisconsin Badgers vs. Stanford Cardinal (-6.5, 47.5)

WHEN: 5:00 PM ET, Tuesday, January 1, 2013
WHERE: Rose Bowl, Pasadena, California

ROSE BOWL STORYLINES

1. The Rose Bowl was shaping up as a fairly nondescript matchup with Pac-12 champion Stanford squaring off against a five-loss Wisconsin squad. Then the Badgers unwittingly added some juice and an intriguing subplot to the "The Granddaddy of Them All" when coach Bret Bielema accepted a job at Arkansas, prompting former Wisconsin coach and current athletic director Barry Alvarez to return to the sideline on New Year's Day. Alvarez took Wisconsin to the Rose Bowl three times - and won them all.

2. It will be strength against strength in a no-frills, grind-it-out affair between two of the only three schools to be playing in a BCS bowl game for the third straight season. The Badgers rely on a powerhouse ground game led by touchdown machine Montee Ball, the Doak Walker Award winner as the nation's top running back. Stanford counters with a rugged defense that is ranked third nationally against the run with an average of 87.7 yards allowed per game.

3. While Wisconsin went 8-5, eighth-ranked Stanford carries a seven-game winning streak into the Rose Bowl, highlighted by a dramatic victory at then-No. 1 Oregon to dash the Ducks' national championship hopes. The Cardinal have not tasted defeat since an overtime loss at BCS Championship Game finalist Notre Dame on Oct. 13. They beat four ranked opponents to close the season, including UCLA twice. The Badgers, who are playing in Pasadena for the third straight season, beat Stanford in the Rose Bowl following the 1999 season.

TV: 5 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Stanford opened at -6.5 and was bet up briefly to -7 before coming down as low as -6. The total has moved from 47.5 to 47 at some books.

CONSENSUS: 54 percent of Covers Consensus picks are on Stanford while 58 are on the over.

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for clear skies and temperatures in the high 50s. Winds are expected to blow SW at 5 mph.

TRENDS:

* Badgers are 0-5 ATS in their last five non-conference games.
* Cardinal are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games.
* Under is 5-2 in Badgers' last seven bowl games.
* Over is 19-7 in Cardinal's last 26 vs. a team with a winning record.

ABOUT WISCONSIN (8-5, 4-4 Big Ten, 6-7 ATS): Ball could not quite match his brilliant 2011 season, when he finished fourth in the Heisman Trophy voting, but he still piled up 1,730 yards and ran for 21 scores to become the NCAA career leader with 82 touchdowns. He rushed for 202 yards and three touchdowns in a 70-31 drubbing of Nebraska in the Big Ten Conference title game as the Badgers rebounded from back-to-back overtime losses to end the regular season. Ball is not a one-man show in the backfield. James White had 109 yards and four touchdowns and Melvin Gordon added 216 yards on only nine carries as Wisconsin amassed 539 rushing yards against Nebraska. Quarterback Curt Phillips went 2-2 after replacing an injured Joel Stave (collarbone), who hopes to be cleared for the game. Wisconsin's defense ranks 12th nationally versus the run (111.3 yards).

ABOUT STANFORD (11-2, 8-1 Pac-12, 8-5 ATS): The Cardinal also feature a top back in Stepfan Taylor, who ran for 1,442 yards and 12 touchdowns to become the school's all-time leading rusher. Taylor had three straight 100-yard games after Kevin Hogan was inserted as the starting quarterback. Stanford's offense picked up with Hogan as the starter, scoring at least 27 points in four of his five appearances. Hogan completed 72.9 percent of his passes and his mobility added a new dimension to the offense. His top target is star tight end Zach Ertz, who set school records with 66 receptions and 837 yards and had 11 catches in the upset of Oregon. Linebacker Trent Murphy is the leader of a defense that led the nation with 56 sacks and 120 tackles for losses. Ed Reynolds is a big-play safety who intercepted six passes this season and returned three for touchdowns.


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[Udog]

NCAAF

Tuesday, January 1

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Heart Of Dallas Bowl: What bettors need to know
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Purdue Boilermakers vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys (-17, 70)

WHEN: 12:00 PM ET, Tuesday, January 1, 2013
WHERE: Cotton Bowl Stadium, Dallas, Texas

HEART OF DALLAS BOWL STORYLINES

1. Having survived the coaching carousel with Mike Gundy still at the helm, Oklahoma State will be looking for its third straight bowl win and fifth in the last seven seasons. Purdue was not quite as lucky when it came to the coaching turnover and will be led by interim Patrick Higgins after coach Danny Hope was let go. Former Kent State coach Darrell Hazell will take over the program after the contest.

2. The Cowboys suffered four of their five losses on the road this season but will be playing close enough to home in Dallas that they should be able to get the crowd behind them. Either way, the game will likely turn into a shootout. Oklahoma State was fourth in the nation in scoring (44.7 points) during the regular season while the Boilermakers averaged a shade less than 30 points and blasted Indiana 56-35 in their final game to become bowl eligible.

3. Purdue senior quarterback Robert Marve passed for seven touchdowns and one interception during the three-game winning streak that closed the regular season and will be getting a chance to shred a Cowboys' secondary that allowed 285.7 yards in the regular season. The Boilermakers’ bigger deficiency is against the run, where Oklahoma State running back Joseph Randle could do some damage.

TV: 12 p.m. ET, ESPNU.

LINE: Oklahoma State opened as high as -17.5 and was bet down to -16.5 before going back to -17. The total has moved from 69.5 to as high as 70.5.

CONSENSUS: 72 percent of Covers Consensus picks are on OSU while 62 percent are on the over.

WEATHER: The forecast in Dallas is calling for cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid 40s. Winds are expected to blow NW at 10 mph.

TRENDS:

* Boilermakers are 1-4 ATS in their last five bowl games.
* Cowboys are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
* Over is 7-3 in Boilermakers' last 10 games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in Cowboys' last four non-conference games.

ABOUT PURDUE (6-6, 3-5 Big Ten, 6-6 ATS): Hope compiled a 22-27 record over four seasons but the Boilermakers struggled against quality competition this season and won only three games in the Big Ten - against teams with a combined conference record of 4-20. Fortunately those three games came in the last three weeks of the season, allowing Marve and the offense to build a little momentum heading into bowl season. The defense was better than only Indiana in the Big Ten but Marve, who missed three games and was limited to a total of 17 passes in two others, won his job back in the final month and went for 348 yards and four touchdowns in the final win.

ABOUT OKLAHOMA STATE (7-5, 5-4 Big 12, 6-5 ATS): The Cowboys were rebuilding after waving goodbye to first-round NFL draft picks Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon, but Gundy and company were able to keep the offense rolling right along. Junior quarterback Clint Chelf wrestled away the starting job over the last month but could not keep up with the deficiencies on defense in losses at Oklahoma 51-48 and Baylor 41-34 to close the season. While the quarterback position has been the subject of some debate, Randle’s place in secure. The junior rushed for four scores in the loss to Oklahoma and finished the regular season with 1,351 yards and 14 touchdowns.


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[Udog]

NCAAF

Tuesday, January 1

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Gator Bowl: What bettors need to know
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Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Northwestern Wildcats (-1, 52)

WHEN: 12:00 PM ET, Tuesday, January 1, 2013
WHERE: EverBank Field, Jacksonville, Florida

TAXSLAYER.COM GATOR BOWL STORYLINES

1. It's a matchup of two teams on the rise who are trying to build winning traditions. Mississippi State has qualified for three consecutive bowl games for the first time since 1998-2000, and the Bulldogs have won five straight bowl games dating to the 1999 Peach Bowl. Northwestern has made five straight bowl games but has not won one since the 1949 Rose Bowl.

2. Northwestern is trying to claim its first 10-win season since 1995, when it reached the Rose Bowl under coach Gary Barnett, and give coach Pat Fitzgerald 50 victories, the most in school history. Fitzgerald is tied with Lynn Waldorf (1936-45) with 49 wins.

3. Both teams led their conferences in turnover margin, as Northwestern as plus-13 and Mississippi State was plus-17.

TV: 12 p.m. ET, ESPN2.

LINE: Mississippi State opened as a 2-point favorite and was bet up to -2.5 before money on Northwestern took the line all the way to Wildcats -1.5. The total has moved from 51.5 to 53.5.

CONSENSUS: 63 percent of Covers Consensus picks are on Northwestern while 62 percent are on the over.

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for cloudy skies and temperatures in the low 70s. Winds are expected to blow SW at 12 mph.

TRENDS:

* Bulldogs are 2-5 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.
* Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last four non-conference games.
* Under is 6-0 in Bulldogs' last six non-conference games.
* Under is 6-1 in Wildcats' last seven non-conference games.

ABOUT MISSISSIPPI STATE (8-4, 4-4 SEC, 6-6 ATS): The Bulldogs faltered in SEC play after a 7-0 start that saw them climb as high as No. 12 in the rankings. Three of their losses came against highly ranked opponents in Alabama, Texas A&M and LSU, but the regular season ended on a sour note with a 41-24 loss to rival Mississippi. The balanced offense is led by running back LaDarius Perkins (940 yards, eight touchdowns), quarterback Tyler Russell (2,791 yards, 22 touchdowns, six interceptions) and receiver Chad Bumphis (55 catches, 904 yards, 12 touchdowns). The defense was strong early in the season but didn't hold up as well against the SEC's top teams, allowing 37 or more points in all four losses.

ABOUT NORTHWESTERN (9-3, 5-3 Big Ten, 11-1 ATS): The Wildcats won their last two games of the regular season and three of their last four. Northwestern's spread offense has been one of the most productive in the nation on the ground, averaging 230.9 rushing yards with running back Venric Mark (1,310 yards, 11 touchdowns) and quarterback Kain Colter (820 yards, 12 touchdowns) leading the way. Colter also has passed for 796 yards with eight touchdowns and two interceptions while splitting time with Trevor Siemian (1,192 yards, six touchdowns, two interceptions). Mark needs 147 all-purpose yards to tie the Northwestern single-season record of 2,195 set by Damien Anderson in 2000. The defense is solid across the board but is especially tough against the run (123.8 yards per game).


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[Udog]

NCAAF

Tuesday, January 1

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Capital One Bowl: What bettors need to know
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Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Georgia Bulldogs (-8.5, 60)

WHEN: 1:00 PM ET, Tuesday, January 1, 2013
WHERE: Florida Citrus Bowl, Orlando, Florida

CAPITAL ONE BOWL STORYLINES

1. Which team can better handle disappointment? Instead of the BCS Championship Game and the Rose Bowl, Georgia and Nebraska are headed to Orlando. The Bulldogs came up five yards short of beating Alabama in the SEC Championship Game and playing for a national title. The Cornhuskers were demolished 70-31 by Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship Game, giving up an astounding 539 rushing yards. This is only the second all-time meeting - Nebraska beat Georgia 45-6 in the 1969 Sun Bowl.

2. The balanced Bulldogs scored three touchdowns against the Crimson Tide’s top-ranked defense - a fourth came on a blocked field goal - and face a Cornhuskers' defense allowing an average of 26.2 points. Georgia is on pace to set school records in scoring (37.2) and total offense (458.3), and quarterback Aaron Murray leads the nation in pass efficiency. He is the first player in SEC history to throw for 3,000-plus yards in three straight years.

3. Nebraska features the nation’s eighth-best rushing attack (254.5). Running back Ameer Abdullah (1,089 yards, eight touchdowns), dual-threat quarterback Taylor Martinez (973 rushing yards, 10 TDs) and RB Rex Burkhead (535 yards, 7.2 yards per carry) lead a deep backfield. Georgia just gave up 350 rushing yards to Alabama, and the Tide didn’t do anything fancy. Look for the Cornhuskers to run right at the Bulldogs.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, ABC.

LINE: Georgia opened at -10 and has since been bet down to -8.5. The total has moved from 57 to 60.5 points.

CONSENSUS: 67 percent of Covers Consensus picks are on UGA while 57 percent is on the over.

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid 70s. Winds are expected to blow south at 12 mph.

TRENDS:

* Cornhuskers are 3-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last five non-conference games.
* Under is 5-0 in Cornhuskers last five bowl games.
* Under is 4-1 in Bulldogs last five bowl games.

ABOUT NO. 21 NEBRASKA (10-3, 7-1 Big Ten, 6-6-1 ATS): Nebraska, one of only four teams in the nation to win nine games each of the last five years, makes its second straight trip to the Capital One Bowl after losing 30-13 to South Carolina last season. Junior guard Spencer Long is a key to the Big Ten’s best ground game - the 6-4, 305-pounder was named a second-team Walter Camp All-American. While Nebraska is vulnerable to the run, the Blackshirts' defense leads the nation in passing yards allowed (148.2). Nebraska’s all-time record against the SEC is 94-47-4.

ABOUT NO. 5 GEORGIA (11-2, 7-1 SEC, 7-6 ATS): The Bulldogs are making their sixth appearance in the Capital One Bowl, most recently beating Michigan State in 2009. Georgia is loaded with NFL talent, starting with outside linebacker Jarvis Jones, who could be the first overall pick in April. Jones has 22.5 tackles for loss, 12.5 sacks, seven forced fumbles, two fumble recoveries and an interception. He is one of several defensive playmakers, including linebacker Alec Ogletree (98 tackles in nine games) and safety Bacarri Rambo (16 career interceptions). Freshman running back Todd Gurley has run for 1,260 yards and 16 touchdowns, one more than the old freshman record set by Herschel Walker. Murray has overcome the loss of two top receivers, with wide receiver Tavarres King (39 catches, 846 yards, eight touchdowns) emerging as the top outside threat.


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[Udog]

NCAAF

Tuesday, January 1

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Orange Bowl: What bettors need to know
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Northern Illinois Huskies vs. Florida State Seminoles (-13, 58.5)

WHEN: 8:30 PM ET, Tuesday, January 1, 2013
WHERE: Sun Life Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida

DISCOVER ORANGE BOWL GAME STORYLINES

1. Northern Illinois gets a chance to prove the pundits wrong when the 16th-ranked Huskies face No. 12 Florida State, which earned its ticket to the Orange Bowl by holding off Georgia Tech 21-15 in the ACC championship game. The BCS-busting Huskies are riding a 12-game winning streak, highlighted by their 44-37 double-overtime victory over Kent State in the MAC title game.

2. Florida State ranks second in the country in total defense while holding opponents to less than 10 points five times this season. They’ll be tested by a Northern Illinois squad that ranks ninth in scoring offense and rushing offense. The teams are meeting for the first time, and it’s also the first bowl meeting between the ACC and MAC.

3. Northern Illinois’ Rod Carey will make his head coaching debut after replacing Dave Doeren, who accepted the top job at North Carolina State after the MAC title game. The 41-year old Carey previously served as the Huskies offensive coordinator. Florida State defensive coordinator Mark Stoops, defensive ends coach D.J. Eliot and special teams coordinator Eddie Gran are all leaving for other jobs, and it’s unclear whether they’ll be staying with the Seminoles for the Orange Bowl.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Florida State opened as a 14-point favorite and has been bet down to -13. The total opened at 58 and has climbed to 58.5.

CONSENSUS: 61 percent of Covers Consensus picks are on FSU while 65 percent are on the over.

WEATHER: The forecast in Miami is calling for partialy cloudy skies and temperatures in the low 70s. Winds are expected to blow SSE at 6 mph.

TRENDS:

* Huskies are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five non-conference games.
* Seminoles are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight bowl games.
* Under is 4-1 in Huskies last five bowl games.
* Under is 8-1 in Seminoles last nine non-conference games.

ABOUT FLORIDA STATE (11-2, 7-1 ACC, 3-9 ATS): Quarterback EJ Manuel threw for 3,101 yards and running back James Wilder, Jr. scored two touchdowns in the ACC title game, but the Seminoles are defined by their defense. They’ve given up only 22 touchdowns while allowing 15.1 points per game. Florida State, which is 3-5 all-time in the Orange Bowl, ranked third in the country in pass defense (160.8 yards) and fourth in rushing defense (93 yards). The impressive secondary is led by Xavier Rhodes, Lamarcus Joyner and Ronald Darby, who was named the ACC’s top defensive freshman. Bjoern Werner, a 6-4, 255-pound defensive end, was named ACC Defensive Player of the Year after recording 13 sacks.

ABOUT NORTHERN ILLINOIS (12-1, 8-0 MAC, 9-2-2 ATS): The Huskies’ only loss came in their season opener when Iowa escaped with an 18-17 victory. Quarterback Jordan Lynch is a dual threat who leads the nation in total yards (4,733) and ranks third in total yards per game (364.08). In his last nine games, he owns a touchdown to interception ratio of 17-to-2, and he rushed for at least 100 yards in 12 games this season. Junior Akeem Daniels became a key part of the offense in the last two games, when he had 29 carries for 240 yards and five touchdowns. Alan Baxter collected a team-high 11 sacks for the Huskies’ defense, which held opponents to 19 points per game.


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[Udog]

Where the action is: New Year's Day bowl line moves

New Year’s Day is one of the biggest college football betting events of the year. We chat with oddsmakers at BetDSI.com about the action coming in on the Jan. 1 games:


Gator Bowl: Northwestern Wildcats vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs

There is a sharp-versus-public split on this matchup. The public love for Northwestern has created a 2-to-1 bet count and a similar money-wagered differential for the Wildcats. There was sharp money at -2 in favor of Mississippi State, though. This may end up being a game that sheer public volume will eventually move the line.

The line value has bounced back and forth between the 1.5 and 2 values over the past few days with zero sharp money backing Northwestern yet. Public money has also pushed the total value around quite a bit from the opening 50.5 value all the way up to 52. Zero sharp money has come in backing the total over or under for this game.


Capital One Bowl: Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Georgia Bulldogs

Sharp and public money both backed Georgia at the -8 opening line value and continued through -9 and 9.5. The current line of -10 is still getting backed further by more public money. Currently, the bet count is a bit over 3-to-1 for the Bulldogs and money wagered is at about 4-to-1 favoring Georgia as well.

Sharp money is standing on both sides of the total with early action at over 58 and being bought back by other sharp money at the under 61, 60.5 and 60 total values.


Outback Bowl: Michigan Wolverines vs. South Carolina Gamecocks

This has been a lopsided betting affair from the opening line of South Carolina -3. Finally, at the current spread of +6, Michigan is seeing some buy-back love from bettors. For the most part though, the world is on South Carolina.

Sharps pounded this number early and often at -3 through -5 and the public piled on with bet count and deeper wager volumes pushing the line to -6. Currently, the bet count favors the Game Cocks a bit over 3-to-1 and money wagered is creeping towards 5-to-1 also favoring the SEC squad.


Rose Bowl: Wisconsin Badgers vs. Stanford Cardinal

A lot of two way action on this game from the sharp contingency with Stanford getting the nod at -6.5 and Wisconsin getting the nod at +7. The line is currently holding at -6.5 but we may get to +7 dog money depending on the incoming wagers and public volume for either team. This matchup more than likely will be a balanced decision for the books.


Orange Bowl: Northern Illinois Huskies vs. Florida State Seminoles

Sharp money backed Northern Illinois early at the +15.5 opening number and kept coming through the +14.5 to +14 values. At the current Florida State -13 line, the public has come in hard buying back the early sharp money position. Currently, the money is very balanced at this juncture but the bet count is leaning in favor of Florida State due to the public betting affection they are receiving.

[Udog]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Season

Tuesday, January 1

Heart of Dallas Bowl (Dallas)
Boise State was -16.5 over Utah in Las Vegas Bowl two years ago; that’s biggest bowl spread in last nine years. When was last time a bowl team was a 17-point favorite? Purdue already fired its coach, so they’re at big disadvantage preparation-wise; their QB is playing with a torn ACL, but they did win last three games all vs non-bowl teams (two by a FG each), which got them here, but wasn’t enough to save Hope’s job. Boilers are 3-2 vs spread as an underdog- they lost 20-17 at Notre Dame back in September and lost in OT at Ohio State, but also lost four games in five-week stretch by 16+ points. Oklahoma State scored 49 ppg in its last four games but split the four; in six of their games this year, the losing side scored 30+ points. Gundy is 4-2 as a HC in bowls (3-3 vs spread). Big Dozen teams lost first two editions of this bowl, 45-38/30-14, both a 7.5-point underdogs (1-1 vs spread). Heart of Dallas Bowl is played in the Cotton Bowl; the actual Cotton Bowl is played in massive Jerry World; go figure.

Gator Bowl (Jacksonville)
Northwestern lost its last nine bowl games; its been 64 years since they won one. Wildcats blew 4th quarter leads in all three of its losses (scored 28+ points in all three) this season; they covered 10 of last 11 games overall, are 6-0-1 vs spread when favored. Mississippi State started out 7-0 vs incredible assortment of stiffs, then lost 38-7 at Alabama and collapsed, losing four of last five games, with none of four losses by less than 17 points. How are they playing on January 1? None of eight teams they beat are in a bowl game this year; four of them fired their coach. Bulldogs are 0-4 vs spread as underdog this year; favorites covered their last eight games. Mullen is 2-0 as HC in bowls; Fitzgerald is 0-4 in bowls, but covered three of the four as an underdog. SEC teams beat Big Dozen teams in last two Gator Bowls, 52-14/24-17, with Miss State trouncing Michigan two years ago; average total in this bowl last nine years is 55. Underdogs covered four of last six Gator Bowls.

Capital One Bowl (Orlando)
Nebraska might be 10-3, but they lost games 63-38 (@ Ohio State) and 70-31 (vs Wisconsin in Big Dozen title game); they’re bully team- they fold if you punch them back. Cornhuskers lost 36-30 at UCLA team that started six freshmen on offense- they were only an underdog one game (Ohio St) all year. Georgia’s junior QB Murray already has 40 career starts; Dawgs are 5-1 vs spread as favorite of 15 or less points. Nebraska lost here to South Carolina LY; Pelini is 3-2 in bowls, but he won his first three- they lost 19-7/30-13 in last two. SEC teams beat Big Dozen teams in three of last four Capital One Bowls, after Midwesterners had pulled four consecutive upsets before that; Georgia won this game twice in last nine years, 34-27 (-3.5) over Purdue in OT in ’03, 24-12 (-8.5) over Michigan State three years ago; Richt is 7-4 in bowl games, 6-5 against spread. Average total in last four bowls is 42.8. Cornhuskers are just 8-9 in last 17 games away from Lincoln, 0-4 vs spread in last four games as an underdog.

Outback Bowl (Tampa)
South Carolina lost consecutive weeks in October at LSU/Florida, only two games Spurrier lost; Gamecocks are 5-2-1 as favorites this season, despite losing star RB Lattimore for year and having injury issues at QB. Michigan is 2-4 away from home this year, 0-4 vs spread as underdogs; they best team they beat was Northwestern in OT, and they needed OT to do that. South Carolina lost 31-10 (+3.5) to Iowa in this game four years ago. Gamecocks snapped 3-bowl losing streak LY, beating Nebraska 30-13; they had scored 10-7-17 points in previous three bowls. Hoke won his first bowl game with Michigan 23-20 in OT LY, first time in five bowls Wolverines allowed less than 32 points. Spurrier is 8-10 in bowl games, 2-4 at Carolina. Michigan became more balanced on offense with Gardner at QB. SEC teams are 5-3 vs Big Dozen in this bowl last eight years, with underdogs 5-3 vs spread and two of last three going to overtime. Favorites were 9-13 in bowls coming into today.

Rose Bowl (Pasadena)
All five Wisconsin losses this year were either by 3 points or in OT, as six of its eight wins were by 11+ points. Badger AD Alvarez is netting $118,000 for coaching just this game, with a $50,000 bonus if he wins!!!! Over the last nine years, Big Dozen teams are 1-7 in Rose Bowl, with Wisconsin losing last two years, 21-19 (+3) to TCU, 45-38 (+5) to Oregon LY. Badgers lost four of last five bowls, but were dog in all five (2-3 vs spread); they're first team to get to Rose Bowl with five losses. Stanford is in this game for first time since '99; they've lost four of last five bowls, with underdogs covering four of the five games- dogs are 5-3 vs spread in last eight Rose Bowls, 4-1 in last five that didn’t have USC in it. Cardinal lost at Washington in OT on a Thursday, then got hosed in OT at Notre Dame two weeks later, only games they lost this year. Stanford is 4-6 vs spread as favorite this year. Bowl teams that changed head coaches before their bowl game are 2-3 so far this bowl season.

Orange Bowl (Miami)
Northern Illinois had to buy 17,500 tickets for this game; their average home attendance was under 16,000, but 1,500 NIU students took buses down here over weekend, so Huskies will have support, just not at the level Florida State will. NIU covered 11 of last 16 tries as an underdog; they lost opener 18-17 to Iowa in Chicago, then ran table, winning by a point at Army, winning MAC title game in OT over Kent State. ACC teams lost six of last seven Orange Bowls, with last four all decided by 10+ points; underdogs won four of last five SU. Florida State lost this game 16-14 (+1.5) to Miami in ’03, then lost again in ’05 to Penn State 26-23 (+10) in OT. Seminoles struggled in last four games, losing 37-26 at home to Florida, beating Va Tech/Ga Tech, both by six points- they've won last four bowls, by 29-12-9-4 points (2-0 as favorite). Huskies won last two bowls, over Fresno St/Arkansas St, but they also lost 49-7 to Wisconsin LY. Will Seminoles take Northern Illinois seriously?

[Udog]

Where the action is: Sharps take UL early in Sugar Bowl

Louisville Cardinals vs. Florida Gators (-13, 45.5)

After a busy holiday season, filled with multiple bowl matchups each day, bettors get a standalone BCS bowl game on Jan. 2 – the AllState Sugar Bowl between the Louisville Cardinals and the Florida Gators.

Oddsmakers opened the Gators as 15-point favorites at some books but sharps quickly jumped on the Big East’s representative in the BCS.

“The only sharp money seen on this side came in at Louisville +14,” an oddsmaker at BetDSI.com told Covers. "The rest of the betting action on the spread has been the public backing Florida at -13.”

According to BetDSI.com, the action on the Gators is at more than a 3-to-1 ticket count and a 2-to-1 ratio in terms of total handle.

As for the total, books opened with the number at 45.5 and it has remained steady for the most part. Some online markets have moved to 46 and the LVH Superbook in Las Vegas was dealing 46 before being bet back down to 45.5.




NCAAF

Wednesday, January 2

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Sugar Bowl: What bettors need to know
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Louisville Cardinals vs. Florida Gators (-14, 45.5)

WHEN: 8:30 PM ET, Wednesday, January 2, 2013
WHERE: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana

ALLSTATE SUGAR BOWL GAME STORYLINES

1. No. 4 Florida looks to cap a near-perfect season with its fifth consecutive bowl victory as it faces No. 18 Louisville in the Sugar Bowl. This will be the seventh time the Gators have played in a BCS bowl - the highest number of BCS appearances among SEC teams and tied for third-best in the nation. With a win, Florida's all-time BCS bowl win total would increase to five, giving it the highest total in the history of the BCS.

2. The Cardinals edged out Rutgers in the Big East title game on a late field goal by freshman John Wallace to secure their first appearance in the Sugar Bowl and the second BCS appearance in school history. With an upset over Florida, Louisville will reach 11 wins for the first time since 2006 and will move to 2-0 all-time in BCS bowls.

3. Louisville quarterback Teddy Bridgewater and Florida running back Mike Gillislee figure to be focal points in a matchup that features a stifling Gator defense on one side and its Cardinal counterpart that struggled against the run. Bridgewater led the Big East with a 161.6 passer rating that ranked seventh in the nation, tossing for 3,452 yards and 25 touchdowns. Florida ranked fifth in the nation in total defense and limited opponents to an average of just over 186 yards per game through the air. Gillislee averaged 92 yards on the ground and had 10 touchdowns for Florida, which ranked third in the SEC in rushing offense, while only Temple (199.4 yards per game) allowed a higher rushing average than Louisville (151.1) among Big East schools.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Florida opened at -15 and was bet up to -15.5 before coming down as low as -13.5. The total has stayed steady at 45.5.

CONSENSUS: 63 percent of Covers Consensus picks are on Florida while 63 percent are on the over.

TRENDS:

* Cardinals are 35-17 ATS in their last 52 non-conference games.
* Gators are 22-9 ATS in their last 31 non-conference games.
* Over is 4-1 in Cardinals last five bowl games.
* Over is 5-2 in Gators last seven bowl games.

ABOUT LOUISVILLE (10-2, 5-2 Big East, 5-7 ATS): The Cardinals were 10-game winners for the fifth time in school history and on each of the previous four occasions, they have gone on to win their bowl game. They stand a chance against the Gators, if for no other reason than the fact that Florida had legitimate scares against the likes of Bowling Green, Missouri and Louisiana-Lafayette this season. The Cardinals led the Big East, averaging 31 points per game but obviously face a stiff test against the Gators' defense. Running back Jeremy Wright, who took over when Senorise Perry was lost for the season, managed only 89 yards in Louisville's final three games. The Cardinals will hope for a turnaround, and establishing a semblance of a run game would go along way toward opening things up for Bridgewater under center.

ABOUT FLORIDA (11-1, 7-1 SEC, 7-5 ATS): The Gators played six games this season decided by one score and prevailed in all but one. In their win over Florida State, the defense was the difference, forcing a season-high five turnovers in a 37-26 final. Florida led the SEC in turnover margin, tied with Mississippi State at plus-17, ranking fifth in the nation. If the Gators force trouble for Louisville, the odds are decidedly in their favor. Florida, which committed only 12 turnovers this season, was plus-20 in 11 wins and minus-3 in a 17-9 loss to Georgia. In a tight game, the Gators have a big weapon in kicker Caleb Sturgis, whose 23 field goals ranked fourth among FBS kickers.


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[Udog]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Season

Wednesday, January 2

Sugar Bowl (New Orleans)
Louisville covered seven of last eight games as an underdog; overall, they are 9-5 vs spread as dogs under Strong. Florida won/covered its last four bowls, all as favorites; they won 51-24 over Cincinnati (-12.5) in Sugar game three years ago. After a great September, Gators struggled later in year, before winning 37-26 (+7) at Florida State; they're 3-4 vs spread as a favorite this year, but also covered 16 of last 22 as road faves. Cards' best wins this year were Cincy/Rutgers, both by FG- they lost in OT to UConn and lost 45-26 at Syracuse. Since 2003, SEC teams are 5-3 in this game, 3-3 when favored; favorites covered Louisville's last four bowls; Cardinals are 3-2 in last five, 0-2 vs spread as an underdog. Average total in last seven Sugar Bowls is 57.4; domed stadium, no weather worries. Underdogs are 3-0 in Big East bowl games this season; SEC clubs are 3-2 in bowls so far. Under is 17-12 in bowls this season, favorites are 13-15 against the spread.

[Udog]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Season

Thursday, January 3

Fiesta Bowl (Phoenix)
73-year old Snyder covered 11 of last 13 games as underdog; K-State has eight senior starters on defense, none on offensive line. Biggest question in this game is whether talk about Chip Kelly going to NFL will distract Oregon, which is 3-2 in last five bowls, scoring 42-45-56 points in wins, 17-19 in losses (Kelly 1-2 in bowls). Oregon scored 42+ points in all its wins, 14 in OT loss to Stanford; they're 6-1 vs spread last seven games as a favorite. K-State's only loss was as a 12-point favorite at Baylor (52-24); they won SU both times they were underdog this year, but lost last four bowls, allowing 33.8 ppg. Wildcats lost 35-28 to Ohio State in this game in '03. K-State's Klein is senior QB who was banged up late in year but had time to recover; Ducks' QB Mariota is redshirt freshman. Underdogs covered five of last six Fiesta Bowls, where domed stadium guarantees fast track-- 68-79 points were scored here last two years. Under is 17-13 in bowls, faves are 13-16 against spread.

[Udog]

NCAAF

Thursday, January 3

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Fiesta Bowl: What bettors need to know
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Oregon Ducks vs. Kansas State Wildcats (+8, 75.5)

WHEN: 8:30 PM ET, Thursday, January 3, 2013
WHERE: University of Phoenix Stadium, Phoenix, Arizona

FIESTA BOWL STORYLINES

1. Oregon and Kansas State could have been meeting in the BCS title game if not for both teams losing on Nov. 17. Instead, they form perhaps the top non-championship game pairing of the bowl season. The No. 3 Ducks had their title hopes derailed by Stanford while the No. 6 Wildcats were routed by Baylor.

2. Offensive theatrics should be plentiful with both teams having powerful attacks. Oregon ranks second in scoring at 50.8 points and fourth in total offense at 550.1 yards while featuring star runner Kenjon Barner (1,624 rushing yards). Kansas State averages 40.7 points and 411.2 yards with quarterback Collin Klein – third in Heisman Trophy balloting – leading the way.

3. Big plays on defense often tip the scales during the bowl season and both teams are among the best in the nation in takeaways. Oregon leads the nation with 39 and Kansas State has forced 31 turnovers. The Ducks have returned four interceptions for touchdown. The Wildcats have only committed 10 miscues in 12 games.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Oregon opened at -8 and was bet up as high as -9.5 but money on KSU dropped the spread back to -8. The total moved from 77 to 75.5.

CONSENSUS: 51 percent of Covers Consensus picks are on Oregon while 68 percent are on the over.

TRENDS:

* Ducks are 2-5 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.
* Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four bowl games.
* Under is 5-2 in Ducks' last seven bowl games.
* Over is 5-2 in Wildcats' last seven non-conference games.

ABOUT KANSAS STATE (11-1, 8-1 Big 12, 7-5 ATS): The Wildcats have lost four consecutive bowl games dating back to the 2002 Holiday Bowl during coach Bill Snyder’s first stint at the school. Klein is a multipurpose threat with 2,490 yards and 15 passing touchdowns to go with 890 yards and 22 scores on the ground. Junior John Hubert has rushed for 15 touchdowns to go with a team-leading 892 rushing yards, while senior wideout Chris Harper has a team-best 50 receptions for 786 yards. Harper began his career as a quarterback at Oregon before transferring. Kansas State allows only 99.3 rushing yards per game and boasts big-time talent in senior middle linebacker Arthur Brown – the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year – junior free safety Ty Zimmerman (five interceptions) and senior defensive end Meshak Williams (8.5 sacks). Senior cornerback Allen Chapman and senior cornerback Nigel Malone also have five interceptions apiece.

ABOUT OREGON (11-1, 8-1 Pac-12, 9-2-1 ATS): The Ducks could be playing their final game under coach Chip Kelly as rumors swirl that he is headed to the NFL. Redshirt freshman quarterback Marcus Mariota has thrived under Kelly’s progressive system, completing 69.9 percent of his passes for 2,511 yards and 30 touchdowns. Sophomore running back De’Anthony Thomas had 16 total touchdowns, including 11 on the ground while complementing Barner. Senior defensive end Dion Jordan is the leader of the defense with 10.5 tackles for losses. Junior defensive end Taylor Hart has a team-best eight sacks while sophomore cornerback Ifo Ekpre-Olomu has blossomed as a huge playmaker. Ekpre-Olomu is tied for the team lead with sophomore middle linebacker Kiko Alonso for most interceptions (four) and also has forced six fumbles.


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[Udog]

Where the action is: Sharps vs. Public in Fiesta Bowl betting

Fiesta Bowl: Kansas State Wildcats vs. Oregon Ducks (-8, 75.5)

Two of the most explosive offensive programs in the country meet in the Fiesta Bowl, with oddsmakers opening the Oregon Ducks as 8-point favorites for this Jan. 3 BCS bowl game.

Early money came in on the Ducks, moving the spread as high as -9.5 at some online markets. However, sharp money pounced on the discount KSU line and brought the spread back to its original post. According to oddsmakers at BetDSI.com, the Fiesta Bowl is a battle between public and wise guy money.

“There is a public-versus-sharp betting contrast here with sharp action backing K-State at the +9 spread and the public all over Oregon at any value,” BetDSI.com told Covers. “The current bet count is 2-to-1 in favor of Oregon, but the money has decent balance since the spread settled in around Oregon -8.”

The total for Thursday’s game is one of the largest numbers this bowl season. The over/under opened as high as 77 but has since dropped to as low as 75 online. Las Vegas books are dealing between 76 and 75.5 points.

Four bowls have closed with totals of 70 or more points this postseason, splitting the over/under at 2-2. Oregon and Kansas State posted twin 7-4 over/under records this season.