NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Bowl Season (Saturday, December 15 - Monday, January 7)

[Udog]

70 helpful stats you didn't know for 70 bowl teams

If you're aiming to handicap all 35 bowl games in record time, this is the article for you. We dug to find you one helpful stat for every bowl team on the betting board. We listed them by matchup in chronological order.

New Mexico Bowl

Nevada – Nation’s second-best rusher Stefphon Jefferson (1703 yards).
Arizona – Nation’s top rusher Ka’Deem Carey (1757 yards).

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

Toledo – Linebacker Dan Molls led the nation in tackles this season with 166.
Utah State – Third-most profitable team in college this year at 10-1-1 ATS (against the spread).

Poinsettia Bowl

BYU – No. 1 red zone efficiency defense in the nation.
San Diego State – Went 6-1 ATS during its current seven-game winning streak.

Beef O'Brady's Bowl

Ball State – Led the nation in tackles for loss allowed with just 40 against.
Central Florida – Quincy McDuffie leads the nation in kickoff return yards per game (34.2) and tied for most return TDs with three.

New Orleans Bowl

East Carolina: Lost all three meetings with non-conference FBS opponents, going 0-3 ATS in those games.
UL Lafayette – Ragin Cajun’ are home run hitters, ranking tops in the country in plays of 70-plus yards from the line of scrimmage with eight.

Las Vegas Bowl

Washington – Tied for first in the nation in opponent fumbles per game (2.5) and recovered half of those (15 of 30).
Boise State – 4-0 ATS in its last four bowl games & recovered the most fumbles in the nation this season (17).

Hawaii Bowl

Fresno State - Senior Phillip Thomas led the nation in interceptions with eight and tied for tops in the nation with three returned for TDs.
SMU – The Mustangs tied for the most interception return TDs with six this season. SMU finished tied for sixth with 19 INTs.

Little Caesar's Bowl

Western Kentucky - Antonio Andrews was nation's leading all purpose runner with 2977 yards this year.
Central Michigan – RB Zurlon Tipton has rushed for over 100 yards in six straight games, with CMU going 4-2 ATS.

Military Bowl

San Jose State - No. 2 passing efficiency offense (in terms of percentage) in the country (71.29).
Bowling Green – In addition to being the most profitable under team this year (1-10 O/U) the Falcons have only one win over a team with a winning record this season – 8-4 Ohio.

Belk Bowl

Cincinnati – Bearcats are 2-7 ATS in bowl games since 2000.
Duke: The Blue Devils haven’t been to a bowl game since the 1994 Hall of Fame Bowl.

Holiday Bowl

Baylor - Bear have the best total offense in the nation with 578 yards per game.
UCLA – Bruins ranks 91st against the pass and have allowed at least 295 yards through the air in five of 13 games.

Independence Bowl

La. Monroe - Only three teams in the country lost fewer fumbles this season (lost four).
Ohio – Bobcats have failed to cover in seven of their last eight games.

Russell Athletic Bowl

Rutgers - Worst first-down offense of all bowl teams with an average of just 16.7 ypg.
Virgina Tech – Defense allowed an average of 417 yards and 33.5 points against in road games this year compared to 334 yards and 23.9 points against at home.

Meineke Car Car Bowl

Minnesota – Only seven current Gophers played in the team’s last bowl game in 2009.
Texas Tech - Second-best passing offense in the nation with 361 yards per game.

Armed Forces Bowl

Rice - Leads all bowl teams in time of possession at 33:40.58 (Second in FBS).
Air Force - Falcons' triple-option attack leads all bowl teams with an average of 328.75 yards on the ground per game.

Pinstripe Bowl

Syracuse – The over went 5-0-1 in the Orange’s last six games and they averaged 38.5 points per game during that stretch.
West Virginia – Second-worst pass defense in the nation, behind only Louisiana Tech.

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl

Arizona State - Second in the nation in sacks (48) and tackles for loss (106.0).
Navy - Second worst of all bowl teams in third-down efficiency defense 47.4 percent (behind only Baylor).

Alamo Bowl

Texas – Ranked ninth this year in pass efficiency but was undecided on its starting QB for the third straight year heading into its bowl game.
Oregon State – Ranked second in the Pac-12 in scoring defense (17.8 points against per game) but last four games with a posted total went over.

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl

TCU – Ranked first in the Big 12 in total defense with just 332 yards against per game
Michigan State – Went 2-5 SU and ATS in a stretch of an NCAA-record-tying seven straight games decided by four points or fewer.

Music City Bowl

North Carolina State - Worst rushing offense of all bowl teams (117 yards per game).
Vanderbilt – Ranked first in the SEC in tackles for loss.

Sun Bowl

USC – Didn’t rank higher than 29th in the nation in any major offensive category and didn’t rank higher than 41st in any major defensive category.
Georgia Tech – Went 0-3 SU and ATS against non-conference FBS foes this year.

Liberty Bowl

Iowa State – Didn’t hold any of its last nine opponents to fewer than 21 points.
Tulsa – Ranks 11th in the nation in rushing, but both teams tied with 160 rushing yards in their September meeting.

Chick-Fil-A Bowl

LSU – Ranked in the Top 11 in the nation in rushing defense, pass efficiency defense, total defense and scoring defense.
Clemson - Second in the nation in red-zone efficiency offense (scored on 51 of 54 red zone drives).

Heart of Dallas Bowl

Purdue – Won three straight games but is the biggest underdog of this bowl season.
Oklahoma State – Over went 5-1 in Cowboys games with a total of 70 or higher this season.

Gator Bowl

Mississippi State – Had the best turnover margin in the SEC.
Northwestern – Tied with Fresno State as the most profitable team in the nation for bettors at 11-1 ATS.

Outback Bowl

South Carolina – Under is 4-0 in South Carolina’s last four bowl games.
Michigan - Threw most INTs among bowl teams this season with 18.

Capital One Bowl

Nebraska - No. 2 pass efficiency defense in the nation.
Georgia - Linebacker Jarvis Jones led the nation in forced fumbles (7) and tackles for loss (22.5).

Rose Bowl

Stanford - Led the nation in tackles for loss with 120.0 and sacks with 56.
Wisconsin - Worst red-zone efficiency defense in the nation (allowed scores on 27 of 29 drives).

Orange Bowl

Northern Illinois – Underdogs for just the second time this season. Lost 18-17 to Iowa as a 7.5-pt dog Sept. 1
Florida State – Tied among bowl teams for the worst ATS record at 3-9.

Sugar Bowl

Louisville - Led the nation in red-zone efficiency offense (scored on 48 of 50 drives).
Florida - Worst passing offense of all bowl teams that don't run a triple-option style offense (114th in the nation, 143.9 yards per game).

Fiesta Bowl

Oregon - Second-highest scoring team in the nation with 50.8 points per game.
Kansas State – Led the nation in punt returns, kickoff returns and turnover margin.

Cotton Bowl

Texas A&M – Ranked first in the SEC in passing, rushing, total offense and scoring – yet was an under team with a 4-6 over/under record.
Oklahoma – First time the Sooners have been underdogs to Texas A&M since 1999, breaking a string of 12 straight meetings where Oklahoma was favored (OU won that game 51-6 as 3.5-pt dogs).

Compass Bowl

Pittsburgh - Tied for first in the nation in fewest turnovers lost this year (8).
Mississippi – The most profitable team in the SEC this season at 9-3 ATS.

GoDaddy.com Bowl

Kent State - Tied for tops in the nation in turnovers gained with 38.
Arkansas State – Hasn’t been held to fewer than 34 points during its current seven-game winning streak (6-1 ATS).

BCS National Championship

Alabama – Ranked 84th in the nation in passing offense, but first in the nation in passing efficiency.
Notre Dame – Second best under team in the nation at 2-10 over/under behind only Bowling Green (1-10 O/U).

[Udog]

NCAAF

Thursday, December 20

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Poinsettia Bowl: What bettors need to know
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Poinsettia Bowl: BYU Cougars vs. San Diego State Aztecs (+3, 48.5)

POINSETTIA BOWL STORYLINES

1. Two former conference foes renew a rivalry that is much more important to San Diego State. The Aztecs are seeking their first 10-win season since 1977 and playing in a third consecutive bowl game for the initial time in program history. Brigham Young attempts to add on to its dominating 27-7-1 edge in the all-time series and is 5-2 in bowl games under eight-year coach Bronco Mendenhall.

2. Mendenhall has an interesting decision to make at quarterback between Riley Nelson and one-game sensation James Lark. Nelson has been maddeningly inconsistent and his absence because of injured ribs presented Lark with the opportunity to pass for 384 yards and six touchdowns in the regular-season finale against porous New Mexico State.

3. Mountain West Coach of the Year Rocky Long of San Diego State and Mendenhall are highly familiar with one another. Mendenhall was defensive coordinator under Long for five seasons (1998-2002) at New Mexico and considers him a mentor. The Aztecs’ atypical 3-3-5 defensive alignment doesn’t prompt an uncomfortable adjustment period for Mendenhall and the BYU staff, who have previously coached against it on several occasions.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: BYU opened between a 2.5 and 3.5-point favorite while the total has moved from 49 to as low as 48 before settling in between.

WEATHER: The forecast calls for clear skies and temperatures in the mid 50s. Winds are expected to blow NNW at 2 mph.

CONSENSUS: Fifty-six percent of Covers Consensus picks are on BYU while 53 percent is on the under.

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings in San Diego State.
* Cougars are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 meetings.
* Home team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.

ABOUT BRIGHAM YOUNG (7-5, 6-6 ATS): No matter who starts at quarterback, junior receiver Cody Hoffman is a big-time threat with 90 catches for 1,134 yards and 11 touchdowns. Hoffman caught a school-record five touchdowns in the season finale. Freshman Jamaal Williams rushed for a team-best 744 yards for an offense that averages 29.2 points. The Cougars shine on defense, led by junior Kyle Van Noy. The dominating linebacker has 11.5 sacks and five forced fumbles for a unit that ranks third in total defense (266.3 yards per game) and fifth in scoring defense (14.7). BYU’s stout rushing defense (84.3) ranks second nationally as it goes up against a strong San Diego State rushing attack. The Cougars often land an edge in field position with senior Riley Stephenson, who ranks second nationally in punting at 47.3 with a 42.2 net average.

ABOUT SAN DIEGO STATE (9-3, 7-1 Mountain West, 8-4 ATS): The Aztecs have won seven straight games and haven’t lost since September. San Diego State has set a school-record with 2,750 rushing yards – the old mark of 2,476 was set during Marshall Faulk’s freshman campaign in 1991 – with sophomore Adam Muema leading the way with 1,355 yards and 16 rushing scores. San Diego State will be without senior Walter Kazee (822 yards), who injured his knee in the regular season finale. The strong running game has aided sophomore quarterback Adam Dingwell (eight touchdowns, four interceptions) after he became the starter for the final four regular season games because of a season-ending injury to Ryan Katz. Senior cornerback Leon McFadden (three interceptions) will be called on to help slow Hoffman, while junior safety Nat Berhe (team-best 87 tackles) and sophomore middle linebacker Jake Fely (86 stops, team-high seven sacks) are top-notch defenders.


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[Udog]

NCAAF

Friday, December 21

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Beef O'Brady's Bowl: What bettors need to know
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Beef O'Brady's Bowl: UCF Knights vs. Ball State Cardinals (+7, 61.5)

BEEF ‘O’ BRADY’S BOWL STORYLINES

1. Ball State began the season 3-3 and has won six straight games since, while Central Florida was victorious in two of its first four games before finishing 7-2.

2. Jahwan Edwards of Ball State and Central Florida’s Latavius Murray have each rushed for more than 1,000 yards and 14 touchdowns. The Cardinals average 214.3 yards and UCF 178.7 on the ground.

3. Ball State has won four games with scores in the last two minutes of regulation or in overtime. Central Florida is 2-3 in games decided by seven points or less.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Central Florida opened as a touchdown favorite and has remained steady. The total has also stood pat at 61.5 points.

CONSENSUS: Fifty-six percent of Covers Consensus picks are on Ball State while 58 percent are on the over.

TRENDS:

* Knights are 5-2 ATS in their last seven vs. MAC.
* Cardinals are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 non-conference games.
* Under is 7-2 in Knights' last nine vs. MAC.
* Over is 4-1-1 in Cardinals' last six non-conference games.

ABOUT BALL STATE (9-3, 6-2 MAC, 9-3 ATS): The Cardinals are tied for the third most victories in the program’s history, thanks to a productive offense. Ball State’s losses are to Clemson, Northern Illinois and Kent State - who combined for a 33-5 record - and the Cardinals have averaged 31 points in those games. Quarterback Keith Wenning, who is probable with an Achilles injury which kept him out of the last regular-season game, has completed 65.5 percent of his passes and thrown for 22 touchdowns while averaging 261.2 yards. Willie Snead is the top target with 82 receptions and 1,070 yards and 135-pound Jamill Smith has 69 for 706. Edwards, who has totaled of 1,321 yards, keys a ground game that has produced more than 220 yards in four of the last five games. Linebacker Travis Freeman is the nation’s active leader in career tackles with 455. Ball State is 0-5 in bowl games and plays in its first since the 2008-09 season.

ABOUT CENTRAL FLORIDA (9-4, 7-1 C-USA, 6-7 ATS): The Knights have lost to undefeated Ohio State, bowl-bound Tulsa twice and Missouri – three of those by six points or less. Central Florida, which has won one of three games all time against Ball State, has been balanced by scoring 31 times on the ground and 25 through the air. Murray has 1,035 yards rushing in 10 games. Quarterback Blake Bortles has thrown 22 touchdown passes with only seven interceptions – three less than his counterpart. Bortles averages more than 200 yards and has completed 62.6 percent of his passes. J.J. Worton, Rannell Hall and Jeff Godfrey all have at least 31 receptions and 400 yards, combining for 11 scores. Central Florida is tied for 16th in the nation in turnover margin plus .85). The Knights are 1-3 in bowl games, winning their last against Georgia in the 2010 Liberty Bowl. They lost to Rutgers 45-24 in the 2009 Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl.


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[Udog]

NCAAF

Saturday, December 22

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New Orleans Bowl: What bettors need to know
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East Carolina vs. UL Lafayette (-4.5, 65)

R+L CARRIERS NEW ORLEANS BOWL GAME STORYLINES

1. Louisiana-Lafayette won four of its last five games, scoring 31 or more points in each of the wins in claiming second place in the Sun Belt, and makes its second consecutive trip to The Big Easy after winning the bowl last year. The Ragin' Cajuns will put their high-scoring attack to the test against East Carolina in a near inevitable shootout. The Pirates, who won five of their last six before losing the Conference USA tiebreaker to Central Florida, have scored more than 40 points in four of those wins.

2. The Ragin' Cajuns and the Pirates make the most of their scoring opportunities. Louisiana-Lafayette is tied for second in the country in red zone efficiency while the Pirates lead C-USA and are tied for fifth nationally.

3. While both teams have had little trouble scoring the ball, neither has had much success stopping their opponents as they allow close to 30 points per game. The Pirates suffered each of their four defeats by at least 20 points.

TV: 12 p.m. ET, Saturday, Dec. 22.

LINE: This line opened as high as UL Lafayette -6 and the total has crept up from 64 to 65.5 at some shops.

CONSENSUS: Nearly 59 percent of Covers Consensus players like the Rajin’ Cajuns to cover.

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-1 in Pirates' last five games overall.
* Ragin' Cajuns are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Pirates are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 4-1 in Ragin' Cajuns' last five games following a win.

ABOUT EAST CAROLINA (8-4, 7-1 C-USA): Shane Carden has racked up 2,838 yards of total offense and 29 touchdowns this season. In the Pirates' 65-59 double-overtime victory over Marshall in their season finale, Carden completed 38 of 47 passes for 439 yards and three touchdowns while running for another three scores. Justin Hardy, Carden's top target, has caught 83 passes for 1,046 yards and 10 touchdowns as East Carolina's air attack ranks 35th in the nation. Vintavious Cooper's 1,030 rushing yards and seven scores helps balance the attack. The Pirates are likely underdogs because of the four blowout losses to South Carolina, North Carolina, Central Florida and Navy. Also, East Carolina failed to record a victory against a bowl-bound opponent.

ABOUT LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE (8-4, 6-2 Sun Belt): While its the Ragin' Cajuns four wins in their last five games that sent them to New Orleans, its their lone loss in that span - a 27-20 defeat at the hands of then-No. 6 Florida that put them in the public spotlight. Dual-threat quarterback Terrance Broadway has thrown for 2,565 yards and 16 touchdowns while rushing for 661 yards and another eight scores. Three of his four best rushing performances came in Louisiana-Lafayette's last three games -- all wins. Paired with Alonzo Harris (761 yards, eight touchdowns), the Ragin' Cajuns average 187.3 yards per game on the ground, 40th-best in the nation. Louisiana-Lafayette recorded two victories over bowl teams this season in Louisiana-Monroe and Western Kentucky.


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[Udog]

NCAAF

Saturday, December 22

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Las Vegas Bowl: What bettors need to know
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Washington vs. Boise State (-5.5, 45)

MAACO BOWL LAS VEGAS STORYLINES

1. It is a testament to how well Chris Petersen and his staff have done at Boise State that a 10-2 season feels like a down year. The 15th-ranked Broncos were likely out of BCS consideration when they fell at Michigan State on opening weekend but stayed strong behind a defense that allowed less than 15 points and managed to claim a share of the Mountain West. While Boise State was expected to take a small step back, Washington’s step forward in the Pac-12 never fully materialized this season and a loss in the Apple Cup left a sour taste in everyone’s mouth last month.

2. The Huskies have struggled offensively all season and will have to go up against a stout Boise State defense. Washington did not get to 30 points in Pac-12 play until facing the bottom of the league in Utah and Colorado late in the season. The Broncos gave up more than 20 only three times and never let a team hit 30. Boise State has been especially strong against the pass, holding opponents to 163.4 yards - fourth in the nation.

3. Washington is trying to lock down its first eight-win season since 2001 while the Broncos are hoping to avoid their first three-loss campaign since 2007. The schools have met only once previously (a 24-10 victory by the Huskies in Seattle in 2007) but will be playing in back-to-back contests, with the Broncos set to open next season in Seattle on Aug. 31.

TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: The line opened at Boise State -6 at most shops with the total shrinking to 45 after opening at 46.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-50s with partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out of the SSE at 10 mph.

CONSENSUS: Nearly 65 percent of Covers Consensus players like the Broncos to cover.

TRENDS:

* Huskies are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their last four bowl games.
* Under is 5-0 in Broncos’ last five games vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 4-1 in Huskies’ last five games vs. a team with a winning record.


ABOUT WASHINGTON (7-5, 5-4 Pac 12): The Huskies went 7-6 in each of the previous two seasons and were a trendy pick to challenge for the Pac-12 North with junior quarterback Keith Price entering his third year in coach Steve Sarkisian’s system. But Price and the entire team developed a tendency to come up short in their biggest games early in the season. Losses at LSU in September and a three-game slide in October saw the Huskies outscored by an average of 28.5 points. They were on their way to a five-game winning streak to close the regular season before squandering an 18-point lead to rival Washington State. Price could spend most of his day in Las Vegas handing off to sophomore running back Bishop Sankey, who totaled 1,234 yards and 15 touchdowns in the regular season. Sankey will be going up against the soft spot in the Broncos’ defense, a front line that has allowed an average of 141.3 yards on the ground.

ABOUT BOISE STATE (10-2, 7-1 MWC): The Broncos will be making their 11th straight bowl appearance and third in a row at the MAACO Bowl Las Vegas. They beat Utah 26-3 in the 2010 game and took out Arizona State 56-24 in Las Vegas last December. Boise State was replacing four-year starter at quarterback Kellen Moore in 2012 and took a while for the offense to catch up to the defense under new signal-caller Joe Southwick. The junior came on at the end of the season, throwing seven touchdowns and no interceptions over the final three games to bring the Broncos back to a tie for first place in the Mountain West. Senior running back D.J. Harper finished the season with back-to-back 100-yard games and should see plenty of carries against a Washington defense that has surrendered 164.3 yards on average.


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[Udog]

NCAAF
Short Sheet

Bowl Season

All Remaining Games

Thursday, December 27, 2012

Military Bowl
Bowling Green vs. San Jose State, 3:00 ET ESPN
Bowling Green: 15-6 Under off a conference game
San Jose State: 6-0 ATS vs. non-conference opponents

Belk Bowl
Cincinnati vs. Duke, 6:30 ET ESPN | Matt Fargo's Bowl Preview
Cincinnati: 13-3 ATS away off BB games allowing 17 points or less
Duke: 0-6 ATS away off a conference game

Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl
Baylor vs. UCLA, 9:45 ET ESPN
Baylor: 13-5 ATS off BB games gaining 525+ total yards
UCLA: 4-16 ATS away playing with rest


Friday, December 28, 2012

AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl
Ohio U vs. Louisiana Monroe, 2:00 ET ESPN
Ohio U: 1-7 ATS after the first month of the season
LA Monroe: 9-1 ATS off BB games with 40+ pass attempts

Russell Athletic Bowl
Rutgers vs. Virginia Tech, 5:30 ET ESPN
Rutgers: 17-6 ATS away off BB ATS losses
Virginia Tech: 0-6 ATS away vs. non-conference opponents

Meineke Car Care Bowl
Minnesota vs. Texas Tech, 9:00 ET ESPN
Minnesota: 9-1 Under after losing 4 or 5 of their last 6 games
Texas Tech: 22-8 ATS after committing 4+ turnovers


Saturday, December 29, 2012

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl
Air Force vs. Rice, 11:45 AM ET ESPN
Air Force: 16-6 ATS in road games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest
Rice: 2-10 ATS in road games after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl
Navy vs. Arizona State, 4:00 ET ESPN
Navy: 13-4 ATS in road games after a win by 6 or less points
Arizona State: 1-9 ATS in road games off an upset win as an underdog

New Era Pinstripe Bowl
West Virginia vs. Syracuse, 7:00 ET ESPN2
West Virginia: 13-5 Over when playing on a Saturday
Syracuse: 5-13 ATS when playing on a Saturday

Valero Alamo Bowl
Oregon State vs. Texas, 6:45 ET ESPN
Oregon State: 9-1 ATS when the line is +3 to -3
Texas: 0-7 ATS after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl
TCU vs. Michigan State, 10:15 ET ESPN
TCU: 0-7 ATS in road games in non-conference games
Michigan State: 9-1 ATS allowing 225 or less total yards/game over their last 2 games


Monday, December 31, 2012

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
North Carolina State vs. Vanderbilt, 12:00 ET ESPN
North Carolina State: 14-5 Under in the second half of the season
Vanderbilt: 17-8 ATS in all lined games

Hyundai Sun Bowl
Georgia Tech vs. USC, 2:00 ET ESPN
Georgia Tech: 17-32 ATS after a bye week
USC: 25-10 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Iowa State vs. Tulsa, 3:30 ET ESPN
Iowa State: 3-13 ATS in road games off a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference rival
Tulsa: 11-3 ATS after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6

Chick-fil-A Bowl
Clemson vs. LSU, 7:30 ET ESPN
Clemson: 0-7 ATS after having won 8 or more out of their last 10
LSU: 13-5 ATS after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers


Tuesday, January 1, 2013

Heart of Dallas Bowl
Purdue vs. Oklahoma State, 12:00 ET ESPNU
Purdue: 9-21 ATS after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored
Oklahoma State: 12-3 ATS after allowing 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games

TaxSlayer.com Gator Bowl
Northwestern vs. Mississippi State, 12:00 ET ESPN
Northwestern: 11-1 ATS in all lined games
Mississippi State: 1-9 ATS after being outgained by opp by 125 or more total yards last game

Outback Bowl
Michigan vs. South Carolina, 1:00 ET ESPN
Michigan: 5-14 ATS after playing 2 straight conference games
South Carolina: 8-1 ATS after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins

Capital One Bowl
Nebraska vs. Georgia, 1:00 ET ABC
Nebraska: 1-8 ATS in road games after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers
Georgia: 23-10 ATS in road games in non-conference games

Rose Bowl presented by Vizio
Wisconsin vs. Stanford, 5:00 ET ESPN
Wisconsin: 12-4 Over off 1 or more straight overs
Stanford: 17-6 ATS off a win against a conference rival

Discover Orange Bowl
Northern Illinois vs. Florida State, 8:30 ET ESPN
Northern Illinois: 19-9 ATS after the first month of the season
Florida State: 2-8 ATS after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins


Wednesday, January 2, 2013

Allstate Sugar Bowl
Louisville vs. Florida, 8:30 ET ESPN
Louisville: 8-1 ATS after having lost 2 out of their last 3
Florida: 22-10 Over off a double digit road win


Thursday, January 3, 2013

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl
Kansas State vs. Oregon, 8:30 ET ESPN
Kansas State: 15-6 Over after playing 2 straight conference games
Oregon: 8-0 ATS in road games after playing 3 straight conference games


Friday, January 4, 2013

AT&T Cotton Bowl
Texas AM vs. Oklahoma, 8:00 ET FOX
Texas AM: 2-14 ATS in road games after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored
Oklahoma: 11-2 Over when the total is greater than or equal to 70


Saturday, January 5, 2013

BBVA Compass Bowl
Pittsburgh vs. Mississippi, 1:00 ET ESPN
Pittsburgh: 10-2 ATS in the second half of the season
Mississippi: 12-2 Under after 2 consecutive games where they committed 3 or more turnovers


Sunday, January 6, 2013

GoDaddy.com Bowl
Arkansas State vs. Kent State, 9:00 ET ESPN
Arkansas State: 16-32 ATS off a home win
Kent State: 11-2 ATS in all lined games


Monday, January 7, 2013

Discover BCS National Championship
Arkansas State vs. Kent State, 8:30 ET ESPN
Alabama: 19-5 ATS in road games off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite
Notre Dame: 9-1 Under in non-conference games

[Udog]

Dammit! Wrong thread again....

[Udog]

NCAAF

Monday, December 24

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Sheraton Hawaii Bowl: What bettors need to know
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Fresno State Bulldogs vs. SMU Mustangs (+12, 59.5)

SHERATON HAWAII BOWL GAME STORYLINES

1. The lone Christmas Eve bowl game figures to be gift-wrapped with plenty of offense. Southern Methodist will try to keep pace with Fresno State, which is ranked 14th nationally in total offense at 488.5 yards per game while averaging 40.2 points. The Mustangs average 29.5 points and scored a school-record 72 against Houston in October.

2. SMU coach June Jones is familiar with the islands after coaching Hawaii for nine seasons. The Mustangs, who are making their school-record fourth consecutive bowl appearance, won the 2009 Hawaii Bowl 45-10 against Nevada. The Bulldogs are making their 12th bowl appearance in the last 14 seasons, and are coming off their first conference championship since 1999.

3. Both teams enter the contest riding a wave of momentum after finishing the regular season on a high note. Fresno State has won five straight games, including a 48-15 victory over Air Force on Nov. 24. SMU went 2-2 down the stretch, but the Mustangs beat Tulsa 35-27 in their season finale to hand the Golden Hurricane their first conference loss. Fresno State lost to Tulsa 27-26 on Sept. 22.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Fresno State opened at -11.5 and has since climbed to -12. The total opened at 59.5 and has remained steady.

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for a 51 percent chance of rain later in the game with temperatures in the high 60s. Winds are expected to blow ENE at 7 mph.

CONSENSUS: 57 percent of Covers Consensus picks are on Fresno State while 66 percent are leaning toward the over.

TRENDS:

* Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last five Bowl games.
* Mustangs are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. MWC.
* Over is 4-0 in Bulldogs' last four Bowl games.
* Over is 5-2 in Mustangs' last seven games overall.

ABOUT FRESNO STATE (9-3, 7-1 Mountain West, 11-1 ATS): Led by first-year coach Tim DeRuyter, the Bulldogs shared the conference championship with Boise State and San Diego State. Junior quarterback Derek Carr was named Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year after throwing for a career-high 3,742 yards with 36 touchdowns and only five interceptions. Freshman wide receiver Davante Adams led the conference in receptions (89), receiving yards (1,168) and touchdown catches (13), while senior Robbie Rouse rushed for 1,468 yards and 12 touchdowns. Senior defensive back Philip Thomas leads the Bulldogs’ defense, which ranked 19th in the nation while allowing an average of 335.3 yards. Thomas was named the Mountain West’s top defensive player after recording a career-high 82 tackles and eight interceptions. After recording only nine takeaways last year, Fresno State tied for third nationally with SMU and Boise State with 33 turnovers gained this season.

ABOUT SMU (6-6, 5-3 Conference USA, 7-5 ATS): The Mustangs needed their victory over Tulsa to become bowl eligible after losing 36-14 at Rice on Nov. 17. The offense is led by senior Zach Line, who was named C-USA Offensive Player of the Year after rushing for 1,207 yards and 12 touchdowns. Quarterback Garrett Gilbert is a dual threat who had 14 passing touchdowns and seven rushing. Gilbert has a 14-to-13 touchdown-to-interception ratio, but has thrown 126 passes without an interception. The defense is led by defensive end Margus Hunt and linebacker Ja'Gared Davis, who forced three turnovers against Tulsa. The Mustangs are vulnerable in the secondary, where they've lost two starters to injuries. Over the past two-plus seasons, SMU is 14-0 when scoring first, but 0-14 when the opponent scores first.


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[StarDust Bum]

Fresno State seeks 6th straight win on Monday

SMU MUSTANGS (6-6)
vs. FRESNO STATE BULLDOGS (9-3)

Hawaii Bowl - Honolulu, HI
Kickoff: Monday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Fresno State -12, Total: 60

Fresno State tries to extend its long win streak on Monday as it is heavily favored to beat former WAC rival SMU in the Hawaii Bowl.

Fresno State has won five straight games (SU and ATS), scoring at least 42 points in each of the five victories. That puts the Bulldogs at 11-1 ATS for the year, with the lone ATS defeat being a 10-point loss at Boise State as a 7-point underdog. SMU is just 1-4 (SU and ATS) in non-home games, scoring only 19.6 PPG and allowing 32.8 PPG, compared to its 37 to 20 average home score. Both schools are tied for third in the nation with 33 forced turnovers this season, but Fresno is tied for fourth in FBS in passing defense (163 passing YPG), while the Mustangs rank 106th in FBS with 271 passing YPG allowed. This will be the seventh all-time meeting between the schools. After SMU won the first-ever meeting, 24-14 in 1999, Fresno State has won each of the five matchups from 2000 to 2004, prevailing by 7, 25, 23, 9 and 42 points.

Can Fresno State win by two touchdowns on Monday night? For the answer, download your FREE copy of the ******* Edge College Bowl Guide for all the ******* Experts picks for each of the 35 bowls, both Against The Spread and Over/Under.

Mustangs QB Garrett Gilbert has been very interception-prone in his college career at both Texas and SMU (36 career INT), but he has not thrown a pick in five straight games spanning 161 pass attempts. He also has seven rushing touchdowns in this span, but has thrown just 3 TD passes in the five games, giving him 14 TD and 13 INT for the year. He will be making his first bowl appearance since replacing injured Colt McCoy in the 2010 BCS National Championship Game and throwing 2 TD and 4 INT in the 37-21 loss to Alabama. Although the Mustangs don't run the football particularly well (129 YPG, 96th in FBS), they do have an excellent senior running back in Zach Line (1,207 rush yds, 12 TD). Line has three straight 1,000-yard seasons and has rushed for at least 80 yards in eight straight games, with 6 TD in the past three contests. He was unable to play in last year's PapaJohns.com Bowl win over Pittsburgh, but he ran for 103 yards on 17 carries in the 2010 Armed Forces Bowl versus Army, and also scored a touchdown in his team's 2009 Hawaii Bowl appearance, a 45-10 crushing of Nevada. Defensively, this SMU team has allowed 36+ points five times this year and allows 400 total YPG for the season (66th in nation). The rushing defense is solid (129 YPG, 2nd in C-USA), but the passing defense has allowed at least 295 yards to six of their opponents, including 413 to Tulsa in the last game, a 35-27 victory. SMU has 17 takeaways in the past six games, including nine against Houston on Oct. 18.

Fresno State QB Derek Carr has never played in a bowl game, but he has been incredible during his team's five-game win streak, completing 68% of his passes for 1,660 yards (332 YPG), 17 TD and 1 INT. For the season, Carr has thrown for 3,742 yards (312 YPG), 36 TD and just 5 INT, which is why he ranks 9th in the nation in passing efficiency (160.64). It also helps to have star freshman WR Davante Adams who has 13 TD catches and 97 receiving YPG (14th in FBS). But the Bulldogs also know how to run the football (166 YPG, 4.4 YPC), thanks mostly to RB Robbie Rouse whose 122 rushing YPG rank 13th in the nation. Rouse has 14 total TD this year, which doesn't count his 1-yard TD pass against Air Force in his last game. Rouse has three straight 1,000-yard seasons, and has rushed for at least 70 yards in every game this year, including four straight 100-yard efforts, totaling 589 rushing yards (147 YPG). Fresno also has playmakers on defense, especially senior S Phillip Thomas who leads the nation with eight interceptions, running three back for touchdowns. Considering Gilbert propensity to force throws, Thomas could make a big difference in this game. In addition to its stellar pass defense, the Bulldogs also rank tied for 11th in the nation in sacks (2.9 per game). They have forced 14 turnovers in the past five games.

[StarDust Bum]

Hawaii Bowl Preview

December 22, 2012

While Monday Night Football in the NFL is done for the season, there is bowl action this Monday night as the annual Christmas Eve Hawaii Bowl features an intriguing match-up to wrap up the football weekend. SMU finished the season just 6-6, needing to beat Conference USA champion Tulsa to gain bowl eligibility in the finale, while Fresno State is riding a five-game winning streak for a successful first season in the Mountain West. Here is a look at this game and the history between these teams.

Match-up: Southern Methodist Mustangs vs. Fresno State Bulldogs
Venue: Aloha Stadium, Honolulu, Hawaii (FieldTurf)
Date: Monday, December 23, 2012
Time/TV: 8:00 PM ET – ESPN
Line: Fresno State -12½, Over/Under 59
Last Meeting: 2004, Fresno State (-27), 42-0

This is a fourth straight bowl game in the five years since June Jones took over at SMU, an impressive feat considering SMU was 1-11 in his first season. That ugly season was coming off a 1-11 record in 2007 and the Mustangs had not been to a bowl game since getting hit with major NCAA sanctions, with the last bowl appearance being a 27-20 win over Notre Dame in the 1984 Aloha Bowl. SMU was in this bowl game in 2009, winning 45-10 as a double-digit underdog over Nevada. Jones coached at Hawaii from 1999 to 2007, leading Hawaii to the Sugar Bowl after the 2007 season when he led a 12-0 regular season in his final season with the Warriors. Jones is well received on the islands for his success at the university even though he left with some resentment.

Fresno State also has some experience playing in Hawaii as they meet the Warriors as WAC and now Mountain West foes annually. Fresno State made this trip last season, which could help the players with familiarity with the travel and stadium. The Bulldogs won a share of the Mountain West this season going 9-3 overall and 7-1 in conference play. The only losses for Fresno State came on the road against quality teams, Oregon, Tulsa, and Boise State. The Bulldogs also put together an incredible ATS season going 11-1. Fresno State went 3-3 against bowl teams this season, but most would agree that the Bulldogs lost to the best three teams on the schedule and really lack any high quality wins.

Statistically, Fresno State has far better numbers on both sides of the ball, impressively with 6.3 yards per play on offense against just 4.7 yards per play allowed on defense. SMU is also positive in that differential, but much less impressive on both sides of the ball at 5.5 yards per play on offense and 5.2 yards per play allowed on defense. Fresno State posted nearly 490 yards per game, including over 322 passing yards per game for one of the more productive offenses in the nation. On defense, Fresno State did allow significant rushing yards this season, surrendering 172 yards per game on the ground, but having to play Oregon made a big impact on those statistics.

Junior quarterback Derek Carr had a huge season for the Bulldogs and could certainly be growing as a NFL prospect. His brother, David was the #1 pick in the 2002 draft after playing for the Bulldogs and while he never became the star many expected, he has had a job in the league for a decade, currently the back-up for the New York Giants. Derek’s numbers this season are impressive with 36 touchdown passes against five interceptions, while completing almost 68 percent of his passes for over 3,700 yards. David threw for over 4,800 yards in his senior season but Derek’s numbers best what David did as a junior in just about every possible way.

Fresno State is certainly a pass-first team, averaging over 40 passing attempts per game and the ratio of passes to runs would likely be greater if the Bulldogs had fewer blowout wins. Diminutive senior running back Robbie Rouse needs just 32 yards to eclipse 1,500 yards for the second straight season, while also catching 58 passes and scoring 14 times combined. Freshman wide receiver Davante Adams has been the key weapon in the passing game with 89 catches this season for over 1,100 yards. Many of his catches are of the short-yardage variety with only five 100-yard games, but he has the ability to create yardage after the catch. This offense averaged over 40 points per game this season, the 12th best mark in college football.

SMU still looks like the run-and-shoot teams of past years under June Jones, but the offense has not been nearly as prolific. The Mustangs averaged just 366 yards per game this season and passed about 57 percent of the time. Despite over 40 pass attempts per game, SMU only averaged 237 passing yards per game as quarterback Garrett Gilbert (famous for filling in admirably for Colt McCoy at Texas in the 2009 BCS championship game) completed just over 53 percent of his passes. Most of his throws have gone for short yardage and he had just one more touchdown pass than interception. SMU was less reliant on the pass late in the year as Gilbert threw almost 46 passes per game in the first half of the season but just 33 attempts per game in the final six games.

Senior running back Zach Line led the Mustangs with over 1,200 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns while also catching 32 passes. He rushed for at least 81 yards in 10 of 12 games this season and had at least 15 attempts in every game. Darius Johnson and Jeremy Johnson led the receiving corps with very similar numbers but both are on the small end as far as receivers go. The Mustangs do spread the ball around but the offense was very inconsistent this season, scoring an average of 42 points in wins but less than 17 points per game in losses.

While Fresno State did play Oregon and Tulsa in non-conference play, SMU played a brutal non-conference schedule, losing to Baylor, TCU, and Texas A&M. Conference USA certainly had a down year, but the Mustangs did have to play the top team from the East division for one of the tougher slates in the conference. SMU went 5-3 in league play, including beating the eventual champion Tulsa. The schedules for these teams rated similarly with the Mountain West producing a handful of respectable teams and the Bulldogs getting a boost for playing Oregon.

Defensively, Fresno State has far better numbers and while there are some holes in the SMU secondary the Mustangs are not as bad as the overall numbers suggest with a 103rd- ranked pass defense. Facing Baylor and Texas A&M put a big hit on those numbers and the pace of play for SMU allowed for more plays to be ran against them. What both defenses did extremely well was create turnovers this season. As SMU and Fresno State both picked up 33 turnovers on the season and both teams had turnover margins ranked in the top 12 of the nation. That could be a key for the outcome of this game.

While June Jones and his return to Hawaii will be a lead storyline, a great first year for Tim DeRuyter in Fresno should also be worth mentioning. Well-respected longtime Coach Pat Hill was released after last season’s disappointing 4-9 season and while Hill had a number a very good teams and big upset wins he never won a WAC title. In the first year in the Mountain West, DeRuyter has a conference title for Fresno State, albeit with mainly players Hill brought in. DeRuyter did coach Texas A&M to a bowl victory last season as an interim head coach, beating Northwestern 33-22 last season and while with the Aggies he was the offensive coordinator that helped hand SMU a 46-14 defeat last season as well.

Line Movement: Fresno State opened as a -10½-point favorite, but the line quickly climbed to -12 and later to -12½ where it has been steady much of the week before some recent buy-back to -12 at some outlets. The total opened at 59½ and has bounced down to 59. Fresno State is around -450 on the moneyline with SMU +350.

Last Meeting: In 2004, Fresno State was a huge favorite of -27 hosting a one-win SMU team in the latter part of the season. Fresno State won in a blowout with a 42-0 win, but the yardage was actually relatively close as Fresno State had a 465-356 edge as SMU had four turnovers. That was an SMU team that had won once in the previous 18 games however and a good Fresno State team was focused coming off three consecutive tight losses.

Series History: These teams played six straight seasons from 1999 to 2004 with Fresno State winning all but the first meeting S/U though going just 2-3-1 ATS. Fresno State was favored by more than 14 points in each of those contests.

SMU Historical Trends: Since June Jones took over this program in 2008, SMU is 18-16-1 ATS as an underdog and the Mustangs were 4-3 ATS in that role this season including three S/U wins. This is a fourth bowl game in a row for the Mustangs with SMU winning big twice as an underdog and losing as a favorite two years ago in a ‘home’ bowl game. Since 2009, SMU is 8-4 ATS as an underdog of 10 or more points but SMU is also just 4-8 ATS the last two seasons in non-home games.

Fresno State Historical Trends: From late 2005 until the end of last season, Fresno State was mired in an ugly 9-32-2 ATS run in the favorite role. It all changed this season as Fresno State went 9-0 S/U and ATS as a favorite this season including going 7-0 as a double-digit favorite. The only game in which Fresno State failed to cover this season was at Boise State, losing by 10 as a seven-point underdog. Fresno State is 4-7 ATS in the last 11 games as a double-digit favorite away from home and 9-14 ATS in the last 23 games overall as a favorite away from home.

[StarDust Bum]

SMU, Fresno State Square Off Monday In Hawaii Bowl

Fresno State Bulldogs vs. Southern Methodist Mustangs
Hawaii Bowl Betting Preview
Date: 12/24/2012 at 8:00 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: Fresno St. -12½, O/U 60½
Television: ESPN

Fresno State Bulldogs: It was a very successful first season in the Mountain West Conference for the Bulldogs (9-3 straight-up, 11-1 against the spread), who captured a share of the league title during their first year under Coach Tim DeRuyter. Fresno State also made a lot of friends on the college betting front with nearly 10 units of profit vs. the lines. The only hiccup at the window was a midseason 20-10 loss at Boise State as a 7-point 'dog, but FSU recovered with five consecutive wins and covers to end the campaign. The Bulldogs offense had a lot to do with the team covering seven times as double-digit chalk, and that unit was directed by quarterback Derek Carr, the younger brother of former Fresno star David Carr. The junior out of Bakersfield completed over 68 percent of his passes for 3,742 yards and an outstanding 36:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The passing game was supported by a ground unit that averaged nearly 166 yards per contest behind Robbie Rouse's 1,468 yards (13th in country).

SMU Mustangs: It will be something of a homecoming for Coach June Jones when he brings Southern Methodist (6-6 SU, 7-5 ATS) to the islands for Christmas. Jones spent nine seasons at the helm of the Hawaii Warriors, a span that included guiding the team into this bowl contest four times. He also got to know Fresno State very well, with the Bulldogs and Warriors growing into a strong WAC rivalry before the Bulldogs bolted for the MWC. The Mustangs closed their season with a 35-27 upset of Tulsa to gain bowl eligibility and hand the Golden Hurricane their only Conference USA defeat of the campaign. SMU was a 6-point underdog in the contest, and finished 6-1 ATS at home. Former Texas QB Garrett Gilbert directed the Ponies offense with more than 2,700 yards passing, and the unit was augmented by Zach Line's 1,207 yards rushing. The Mustangs are making their fourth consecutive bowl appearance with this game, and second Hawaii Bowl matchup after a 45-10 win and cover over Nevada in 2009, Jones' second year with the program.

[Udog]

NCAAF

Wednesday, December 26

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Little Caesars Bowl: What bettors need to know
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Western Kentucky vs. Central Michigan (6, 57)

LITTLE CAESARS BOWL STORYLINES

1. Western Kentucky makes its first bowl appearance in history as a program in transition. Coach Willie Taggart left to take the South Florida job, disgraced former Arkansas coach Bobby Petrino takes over the Hilltoppers, but defensive coordinator Lance Guidry will guide the team in the bowl game.

2. Central Michigan saved its best football for a 13-day stretch in November. The Chippewas were 3-6 after losing to Western Michigan, but won three games in less than two weeks starting with a 34-31 victory over Eastern Michigan on Nov. 10. A 42-21 triumph at Massachusetts moved Central Michigan to 6-6 on the season.

3. The Chippewas average 29.3 points; the Hilltoppers 28.8. The big difference comes on defense. Western Kentucky allows 25.6 points per game (second in the Sun Belt Conference), while Central Michigan surrenders 33.3. Western Kentucky struggled on defense down the stretch, allowing 30-plus points four times in six games to go 2-4. Losing senior defensive end Quanterus Smith (12 sacks) to a torn left ACL in the next-to-last game was a big blow.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Western Kentucky -6, O/U 57

CONSENSUS: Nearly 55 percent of Covers Consensus players are backing Western Kentucky and 58 percent like the over.

TRENDS:

* Hilltoppers are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a win.
* Chippewas are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 4-1 in Chippewas’ last five December games.
* Over is 4-1 in Hilltoppers’ last five games following a win.

ABOUT WESTERN KENTUCKY (7-5, 4-4 Sun Belt): Junior running back Antonio Andrews comes in after two monster rushing games, finishing with 238 yards against Louisiana-Lafayette and 230 yards against North Texas. The Sun Belt’s leading rusher with 1,609 yards this season, Andrews has three games of 200-plus yards and leads the conference by averaging 248.1 all-purpose yards. The Hilltoppers have been particularly tough on opposing running games, holding opponents to only 136.6 yards on the ground (second in the conference). Junior linebacker Andrew Jackson leads Western Kentucky and ranks second in the conference in tackles (116).

ABOUT CENTRAL MICHIGAN (6-4, 4-4 MAC): The Chippewas make their fourth appearance in the Detroit bowl since 2006, going 1-2. They have running back Zurlon Tipton to thank for helping fuel their last-season sprint. The junior rushed for 185 yards and four touchdowns in the victory over Massachusetts, and has rushed for 110 or more yards in six consecutive games. Tipton rushed for 1,391 yards and 19 touchdowns this season. Quarterback Ryan Radcliff (2,905 yards, 20 touchdowns) finished third in the MAC in passing yards. Sophomore linebacker Justin Cherocci averaged 10.3 tackles per game, fourth in the conference.


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[Udog]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Season

Thursday, December 27

Military Bowl (Washington DC)
MAC somehow got seven bowl bids; first two lost 41-15/38-17, as they are worst D-I league in country. San Jose State comes cross country for first bowl game in six years with interim coach after MacIntyre bolted for Colorado; rain, wind expected, temps in mid-40's. Spartans won last two bowls, are 6-2 as favorites this year- they beat BYU, La Tech, lost by only 3 at Stanford. Bowling Green is in first bowl since '09, a 43-42 loss to Idaho; they've allowed average of 39.8 ppg in last five bowls, but won six of last seven games overall after 1-3 start (lost at Florida and Va Tech); they are 2-2 as underdogs this year, just 7-15 on FGs. San Jose's PK is 15-15 on FGs. WAC non-conference favorites are 6-7 vs spread; MAC underdogs are 18-16. Favorites covered three of previous four in this bowl, with average total in bowl history, 63.3.

Belk Bowl (Charlotte)
Duke (+10) upset North Carolina October 20 to go 6-2, became eligible to for a bowl, but then lost its last four games, allowing average of 49.5 ppg to limp into its first bowl in 18 years, when they lost 34-20 at the old Hall of Fame Bowl to Wisconsin. Blue Devils' last bowl win was in 1960 in the Cotton Bowl, over Alabama. Cincinnati is in sixth bowl in last seven years (3-2 in last five); they're 9-3, but other than upset win over a subpar Va Tech team, no Cincy wins stand out- they covered four of last five games as a favorite. Bearcats lost coach Jones to Tennessee, will have 4th coach in seven years in '13. Duke is 2-6 vs spread as a dog; favorites are 9-2 vs spread in their games this season. ACC teams are 6-3 in this bowl, 2-1 vs spread when dog; favorites are 5-4 overall in this bowl. Not sure Cincinnati is thrilled to be here, after playing in higher profile bowl games. Duke is definitely happy to be playing anywhere on December 27. Big East faves are 8-8 vs spread, 2-6 on road; ACC non-conference underdogs are 3-11 this season.

Holiday Bowl (San Diego)
UCLA coach Mora, former NFL mentor, is in first bowl; his Bruins are 1-3 in bowls last six years, losing to Illinois in San Francisco LY- they'll be more excited to be playing here, fairly close to home, in much better weather. UCLA upset rival USC to get to 9-2, then lost on consecutive weekends to Stanford; they scored 24 or less points in all four losses, up to Baylor to keep them there, but Bears scored 50+ points in two of its five losses this year, thats how bad their defense is; Baylor is playing in third straight bowl after going bowlless for previous 15 years; they beat Washington 67-56 LY, after losing 38-14 to Illinois two years ago. Big X teams are 13-9 vs spread in non-conference games this season; Pac-12 teams are 11-16. Losing side scored 0-7-10 points in last three Holiday Bowls, which used to be famous for wild, high-scoring games; last six years, this game was decided by 11+ points, with Big X/Pac-12 teams alternating wins last seven years.

[Udog]

NCAAF

Thursday, December 27

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Military Bowl: What bettors need to know
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San Jose State vs. Bowling Green (7.5, 44)

MILITARY BOWL STORYLINES

1. Bowling Green has allowed an average of 15.8 points and ranks seventh in the nation in total defense (289.7), while San Jose State’s offense has been productive, averaging 35.2 points and 327.5 yards passing.

2. The two teams combined for three victories in 2010 and both finished 5-7 in 2011. San Jose State won its last bowl in 2006 (New Mexico) and is 5-3 overall. Bowling Green last won in 2004 (GMAC) and is 4-5.

3. Both offensive lines will get quite a challenge. San Jose State is fifth in the nation with 40 sacks and Bowling Green ninth with 37, led by defensive tackle Chris Jones (12.5).

TV: 3 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: San Jose State -7.5, O/U 44

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-30s with partly cloudy skies at RFK Stadium. Winds will gust out of the WNW at 20 mph.

CONSENSUS: Nearly 57 percent of Covers Consensus players like San Jose State to cover.

TRENDS:

* Spartans are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.
* Falcons are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.
* Under is 6-1 in Falcons’ last seven games following a win.
* Over is 4-1 in Spartans’ last five games vs. a team with a winning record.

ABOUT SAN JOSE STATE (10-2, 5-1 WAC): The Spartans can reach the 11-victory mark for the first time since 1939 without coach Mike MacIntyre, who accepted the job at Colorado on Dec. 10. Defensive coordinator Kent Baer, the interim coach, takes over a team that has averaged just over 40 points in six straight wins. Quarterback David Fales has led the lethal offense, completing 72.1 percent of his passes and throwing for 31 scores with only nine interceptions. Noel Grigsby has been the top target, scoring nine times while compiling 1,173 yards on 73 receptions. Chandler Jones has a team-high 10 touchdown receptions. De’Leon Eskridge has led the ground attack with 992 yards and 10 touchdowns. Safety Bene Benwikere is the player to watch on defense with seven interceptions and 62 tackles.

ABOUT BOWLING GREEN (8-4, 6-2 MAC): The Falcons have leaned on their defense to win seven of its last eight games after losing to bowl teams Florida, Toledo and Virginia Tech early on. Jones, the MAC Defensive Player of the Year, leads the way while linebacker Gabe Martin and defensive back BooBoo Gates also stand out. Bowling Green has held opponents to an average of 173 yards through the air and a 28 percent conversion rate on third down. The Falcons have averaged 28.5 points the last eight games, keyed by quarterback Matt Schilz and running back Anthon Samuel. Schilz, a junior, has thrown 50 career touchdown passes and 39 interceptions - 14 and 12, respectively, this season. Samuel is 34 yards from becoming the eighth Bowling Green player to rush for 1,000 yards.


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[Udog]

NCAAF

Thursday, December 27

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Belk Bowl: What bettors need to know
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Cincinnati vs. Duke (9.5, 60.5)

BELK BOWL STORYLINES

1. Making its first bowl appearance in 17 years, Duke does not have to make a long trip as the Blue Devils meet Cincinnati in Charlotte, N.C., less than three hours from their campus in Durham. Led by ACC Coach of the Year David Cutcliffe and despite the excitement of heading to its first bowl game since 1995, Duke is on a four-game losing streak that has seen the Blue Devils allow 49.5 points during that span.

2. For the third time since 2006, Cincinnati goes into its postseason game without the coach that led the Bearcats during the season. After winning or sharing its fourth Big East Conference championship in the past five years, Cincinnati lost third-year coach Butch Jones on Dec. 7 to Tennessee, but 36 hours later hired former Texas Tech, Auburn, and Mississippi coach Tommy Tuberville. Offensive line coach Steve Stripling will coach the Bearcats in the bowl game.

3. With constant conference realignment in the air, Cincinnati has made no secret is would like to be in the ACC, which offered a spot to Louisville earlier this month. And the Bearcats would like to make a statement in the Belk Bowl, taking on Duke from the ACC. Cincinnati is making its 14th bowl appearance and sixth in the last seven years. In September, the Bearcats rallied to beat Virginia Tech in Washington D.C., knocking the Hokies out of the Top 25.

TV: ESPN, 6:30 p.m. ET.

LINE: Cincinnati -9.5. O/U 60.5

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-40s with clear skies at Bank of America Stadium. Wind shouldn’t be a factor.

CONSENSUS: Over 65 percent of Covers Consensus players like the Bearcats to cover.

TRENDS:

* Bearcats are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Blue Devils are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.
* Over is 5-1 in Bearcats’ last six December games.
* Over is 6-1-1 in Blue Devils’ last eight games overall.

ABOUT CINCINNATI (9-3, 5-2 Big East): Senior Brendon Kay took over for the versatile, but erratic Munchie Legaux at quarterback late in the season and led the Bearcats to three wins in four games. Kay is completing almost 62 percent of his passes for 966 yards and six touchdowns with only two interceptions. Kay also rushed for 230 yards and a pair of scores. Legaux accounted for 2,051 yards of offense and 17 touchdowns to go along with nine interceptions. Tight end Travis Kelce, a first team All-Big East performer is Cincinnati's top receiver with 40 catches for 599 yards and seven touchdowns. Second team All-Big East tailback George Winn was second in the league with 1,204 yards rushing. Winn had 12 touchdowns and five 100-yard games. The Bearcats average 430.8 yards and 31 points, while allowing only 13 sacks in 12 games. Cincinnati is allowing only 17.2 points, second in the Big East.

ABOUT DUKE (6-6, 3-5 ACC): The Blue Devils raced to a 6-2 start, highlighted by wins over North Carolina and Virginia before the ACC powers got them at the end of the season. Quarterback Sean Renfree has passed for 2,755 yards and 18 touchdowns while throwing only eight interceptions and Duke is the only FBS team in the nation to have three receivers catch more than 60 passes. Second team All-ACC performer Conner Vernon leads Duke with 75 receptions for 955 yards and seven touchdowns, while honorable mention all-ACC pick Jamison Crowder caught 70 for 1,025 yards and eight scores. Desmond Scott hauled in 61 receptions for 606 yards and two touchdowns. Duke averages 31.3 points and 396.6 yards total offense while allowing 35 points and 462.1 yards. Ross Martin, the honorable mention all-league kicker for the Blue Devils, is 18-for-20 in field goals, including 6-for-6 from beyond 40 yards.


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