NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Bowl Season (Saturday, December 15 - Monday, January 7)

[Udog]

Bowl Season


NCAAF Trends and Indexes

Saturday, December 15 – Monday, January 7

Additional trends and information will be added as available.

NOTE:

As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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[Udog]

NCAAF odds: Bowl season opening line report

The Monday following the final week of the college football season is one of the busiest and frustrating days for oddsmakers.

Not only are they called upon to produce spreads and totals for 35 bowl games in a hurry but they also have to decipher how teams will play weeks removed from their last outing. Notre Dame, which faces Alabama in the BCS Championship on Jan. 7, must wait 45 days between games.

“What’s tough for us is the long waiting period,” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, told Covers. “It can really dull the numbers.”

“You don’t know which team you’re going to get out there,” he says. “It’s a totally different game when you wait five weeks to play. I think you’d get a completely different outcome if these games were played right now.”

We picked Korner’s brain about the toughest games, the widest spreads, the closest contests and the highest totals on the bowl season board:

Toughest line to set

Pinstripe Bowl: West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Syracuse Orange (+3.5, 67)

Korner says his guys had WVU anywhere between -1 and -7 for this matchup at Yankee Stadium on Dec. 29.

“We put this one right in the middle,” Korner told Covers. “You have one team playing really well in Syracuse and another that has played tougher competition, in West Virginia. There’s nothing really motivating either side, which makes it tough.”

Music City Bowl: North Carolina State vs. Vanderbilt Commodores (-4.5, 52)

Korner says his oddsmakers had Vanderbilt between -2 and -8 but eventually settled with -4.5 because of the Commodores’ strength of schedule.

“There are no real motivational factors but there is a difference in schedules played,” he says. “Vandy would have the edge with an SEC schedule and in situations like this, we tend to lean towards the SEC and that’s why Vandy is giving a handful of points.”


Biggest spread

Cotton Bowl: Purdue Boilermakers vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys (-17.5, 69)

The Boilermakers are the biggest dogs on the bowl season board, and Korner says this spread could have easily been higher.

“The Big Ten didn’t have an up year football wise,” he says. “We had this one as high as -20 (OSU). It seems like a ridiculous number for a bowl game but this is a wasted game, we could really see how high we could go.”

Korner says the big spread will draw some action on the underdog and wouldn’t be surprised if it came down before kickoff on New Year’s Day.

Shortest spread

GoDaddy.com Bowl: Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Kent State Golden Flashes (Pick, 62)

This game is the bring-down bowl before the BCS Championship, the same thing as a ho-hum band going on before the headliner. A battle of MAC versus Sun Belt may come down to which program can stay focused with such a long layoff between action.

“Three of us had this at pick,” says Korner. “That one is very, very close.”


Highest total

Fiesta Bowl: Kansas State Wildcats vs. Oregon Ducks (-9, 82)

Two offensive juggernauts collide in this BCS bowl, prompting one of the highest totals of the college football season. Korner says the long layoff could hurt the timing off both potent passing games, which rank among the top 10 in points scored this season.

“These lightning-quick, pass-heavy offenses don’t play for all this time,” says Korner. “You saw a high total last week (Baylor-Oklahoma State) go up to 87 and 88 points. I don’t think that happens with this one. If could come down before then.”


Lowest total

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl: TCU Horner Frogs vs. Michigan State Spartans (-1, 42)

Two teams, known more for their defense this season, collide in Sun Devils Stadium for what should be a low-scoring affair, according to the 42-point total – the lowest on the bowl season schedule.

“We probably could have gone lower,” says Korner. “We’ve seen nothing explosive on offense from either team. It wasn’t a very tough total for us to make. We all had something in the 40’s.”

[Udog]

Double-digit BCS bowl favorites near-perfect against the spread

If you’re a big fan of the upcoming college football playoff system, you’re pointing to BCS bowl matchups like the Orange and Sugar Bowl as to why the Bowl Championship Series process was ultimately flawed in the first place.

What are supposed to be marquee matchups look like blowouts in the making, with the Northern Illinois Huskies set as 12.5-point underdogs versus the Florida State Seminoles in the Orange Bowl and the Louisville Cardinals tagged as 13-point pups facing the Florida Gators in the Sugar Bowl. Even the national title game has been bet up to a double-figure spread, with the Alabama Crimson Tide sitting -10 versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish on Jan. 7.

While those seem like monster spreads for BCS-quality games, they aren’t the highest lines ever for a BCS bowl. That pile of chalk goes to the 2011 Fiesta Bowl, in which the Oklahoma Sooners, 16-point favorites, thumped the UConn Huskies 48-20 on New Year’s Day.

In fact, since the inception of the Bowl Championship Series in 1998 and going back as far as 1985, there have only been six double-digit favorites in any of the five BCS bowls (Orange, Fiesta, Sugar, Rose, BCS Championship). In five of those games, the favorite covered the big spread.

Here’s a look at those five games and their outcomes:

2011 Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma 48, UConn 20 – Oklahoma -16
2010 Sugar Bowl: Florida 51, Cincinnati 24 – Florida -12
2009 Rose Bowl: USC 38, Penn State 24 – USC -10
2008 Rose Bowl: USC 49, Illinois 17 – USC -13
2007 Orange Bowl: Louisville 24, Wake Forest 13 – Louisville -10.5
2003 Fiesta Bowl: Ohio State 31, Miami 24 (OT) - Miami -12

Note: Five of those six BCS bowls with double-digit spreads played over the total.

[Udog]

Pac-12 good, Big 12 bad: Best conferences to bet in bowl games

Teams from the SEC have been a popular pick with those college football bettors getting down early on the bowl season odds.

Just about every program from the nation’s most powerful conference playing in a bowl has seen their spread expand. And why not?

SEC teams are 62-49-2 ATS in bowl games since 1985, boasting a 66-47 SU mark in those contests.

That 54.8 percent cover rate is impressive but it’s not the best conference ATS count during bowl season. That honor goes to the Pac-12, which holds a 44-34 ATS record (40-38 SU) in bowl games over the past 27 years – covering the spread at a 56.4 percent click.

The Big 12, on the other hand, is a bowl season bust. The conference lugs a dismal 41-62-2 ATS (39 percent) record in bowl game since 1985, going 53-52 SU in those contests. In fact there are just five conferences that have finished in the black against the spread in that span.

The ACC (48-46-3 ATS), Big East (38-31-1 ATS), Mountain West (28-23 ATS), Pac-12 (44-34 ATS) and the SEC (62-49-2 ATS) are the only conference that have consistently turned a profit during bowl season over the last 27 years.

The Big 12 (41-62-2 ATS), C-USA (31-37-2 ATS), Independents (9-10 ATS), MAC (17-21-3 ATS), and WAC (19-23-2 ATS) have all cost bettors money at some point during that stretch while the Big Ten (48-48-1 ATS) and Sun Belt (9-9-2 ATS) have broken even.

[Udog]

Five NCAAF teams bowling for the first time in a long time

Five teams blow the dust off their bowling shoes this month after an extended absence from the postseason. Two of those programs have actually never taken those shoes out of the box.

Here’s a look at the teams bowling for the first time in a long time:

Western Kentucky (7-5 SU, 8-4 ATS)

The Hilltoppers, who have only been a member of the FBS since 2008, play in their first big-boy bowl game when they take on Central Michigan in the Little Caesar’s Pizza Bowl on Dec. 26. Oddsmakers have tabbed WKU as a 5-point favorite at Ford Field. Western Kentucky was a golden goose for bettors early in the season, going 6-0 ATS, but finished with a 2-4 ATS mark in the final six games.

UL Monroe Warhawks (8-4 SU, 8-4 ATS)

The Warhawks are another program making its bowl debut this year. UL Monroe is a 7-point favorite versus Ohio in the Independence Bowl on Dec. 28, snapping an 18-year bowl drought after jumping to Div-IA in 1994. The Warhawks don’t have to travel far with the game scheduled in Shreveport, Louisiana – just an hour and a half drive down the 20.

Kent State Golden Flashes (11-2 SU, 10-2-1 ATS)

The last time the Golden Flashes were featured in a bowl game, The Godfather was cleaning up at the Oscars, Roberta Flack topped the music charts, and former head coach Darrell Hazell was eight years old. Kent State makes its first bowl appearance since the 1972 Tangerine Bowl, in which it lost 21-18 to Tampa, when it faces Arkansas State in the GoDaddy.com Bowl on Jan. 6. Books have KSU as a 3.5-point underdog following Hazell’s departure to Purdue.

Duke Blue Devils (6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS)

The Blue Devils may be staples of the college hoops postseason but the football version of the Dukies hasn’t been bowling since the 1995 Hall of Fame Bowl, when Duke lost to Wisconsin 34-20 as an 8-point underdog. This year’s team just made the bowl cut with six wins and draws Cincinnati for the Dec. 27 Belk Bowl in Charlotte. Books are dealing Duke +7 after the team stumbled into the postseason with four straight losses SU and ATS.

San Jose State Spartans (10-2 SU, 10-2 ATS)

The Spartans are one of the best bets in college football and are 7-point favorites versus Bowling Green in the Military Bowl on Dec. 27. This is San Jose State’s first bowl game since 2006 when it beat New Mexico in the New Mexico Bowl, 20-12, as a 3-point underdog. Before that, SJSU hadn’t been bowling since 1990. The Spartans have fared well in bowl season, posting a 5-3 SU mark going back to the 1946 Raisin Bowl.

[Udog]

NCAAF
Long Sheet

Bowl Season

Saturday, December 15

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NEVADA (7 - 5) vs. ARIZONA (7 - 5) - 12/15/2012, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEVADA is 21-37 ATS (-19.7 Units) in road games after playing a conference game since 1992.
ARIZONA is 14-30 ATS (-19.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
ARIZONA is 41-71 ATS (-37.1 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TOLEDO (9 - 3) vs. UTAH ST (10 - 2) - 12/15/2012, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UTAH ST is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all games this season.
UTAH ST is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
UTAH ST is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing on a Saturday this season.
UTAH ST is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in games played on turf this season.
UTAH ST is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
TOLEDO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Thursday, December 20

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BYU (7 - 5) at SAN DIEGO ST (9 - 3) - 12/20/2012, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BYU is 1-0 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO ST over the last 3 seasons
BYU is 1-0 straight up against SAN DIEGO ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Friday, December 21

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BALL ST (9 - 3) vs. UCF (9 - 4) - 12/21/2012, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALL ST is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
BALL ST is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
BALL ST is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Saturday, December 22

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E CAROLINA (8 - 4) vs. LA LAFAYETTE (8 - 4) - 12/22/2012, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA LAFAYETTE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
LA LAFAYETTE is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAFAYETTE is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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WASHINGTON (7 - 5) vs. BOISE ST (10 - 2) - 12/22/2012, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 67-96 ATS (-38.6 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
BOISE ST is 63-32 ATS (+27.8 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.
BOISE ST is 74-44 ATS (+25.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.
BOISE ST is 38-18 ATS (+18.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
BOISE ST is 108-67 ATS (+34.3 Units) in all games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 108-67 ATS (+34.3 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 87-57 ATS (+24.3 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
BOISE ST is 75-52 ATS (+17.8 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
BOISE ST is 69-36 ATS (+29.4 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
BOISE ST is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Monday, December 24

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SMU (6 - 6) vs. FRESNO ST (9 - 3) - 12/24/2012, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FRESNO ST is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all games this season.
FRESNO ST is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
FRESNO ST is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) as a favorite this season.
FRESNO ST is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in games played on turf this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Wednesday, December 26

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C MICHIGAN (6 - 6) vs. W KENTUCKY (7 - 5) - 12/26/2012, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
C MICHIGAN is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
C MICHIGAN is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
C MICHIGAN is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
C MICHIGAN is 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
W KENTUCKY is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
W KENTUCKY is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
W KENTUCKY is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
W KENTUCKY is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Thursday, December 27

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BOWLING GREEN (8 - 4) vs. SAN JOSE ST (10 - 2) - 12/27/2012, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN JOSE ST is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
SAN JOSE ST is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all games this season.
SAN JOSE ST is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
SAN JOSE ST is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in non-conference games this season.
SAN JOSE ST is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) after a bye week since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CINCINNATI (9 - 3) vs. DUKE (6 - 6) - 12/27/2012, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DUKE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
DUKE is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BAYLOR (7 - 5) vs. UCLA (9 - 4) - 12/27/2012, 9:45 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BAYLOR is 66-92 ATS (-35.2 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
BAYLOR is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BAYLOR is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
UCLA is 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) in road games after a bye week since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Friday, December 28

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OHIO U (8 - 4) vs. LA MONROE (8 - 4) - 12/28/2012, 2:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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RUTGERS (9 - 3) vs. VIRGINIA TECH (6 - 6) - 12/28/2012, 5:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VIRGINIA TECH is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
VIRGINIA TECH is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
VIRGINIA TECH is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
VIRGINIA TECH is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
VIRGINIA TECH is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MINNESOTA (6 - 6) vs. TEXAS TECH (7 - 5) - 12/28/2012, 9:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Saturday, December 29

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AIR FORCE (6 - 6) vs. RICE (6 - 6) - 12/29/2012, 11:45 AM
Top Trends for this game.
AIR FORCE is 23-43 ATS (-24.3 Units) off a loss against a conference rival since 1992.
AIR FORCE is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) when playing on a Saturday this season.
RICE is 45-27 ATS (+15.3 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.
RICE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
AIR FORCE is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in road games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
RICE is 26-47 ATS (-25.7 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NAVY (8 - 4) vs. ARIZONA ST (7 - 5) - 12/29/2012, 4:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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W VIRGINIA (7 - 5) vs. SYRACUSE (7 - 5) - 12/29/2012, 3:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SYRACUSE is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SYRACUSE is 2-0 against the spread versus W VIRGINIA over the last 3 seasons
SYRACUSE is 2-0 straight up against W VIRGINIA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OREGON ST (9 - 3) vs. TEXAS (8 - 4) - 12/29/2012, 6:45 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OREGON ST is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
OREGON ST is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games after a bye week since 1992.
OREGON ST is 91-66 ATS (+18.4 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TCU (7 - 5) vs. MICHIGAN ST (6 - 6) - 12/29/2012, 10:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TCU is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Monday, December 31

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NC STATE (7 - 5) vs. VANDERBILT (8 - 4) - 12/31/2012, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VANDERBILT is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
VANDERBILT is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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GEORGIA TECH (6 - 7) vs. USC (7 - 5) - 12/31/2012, 2:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GEORGIA TECH is 17-32 ATS (-18.2 Units) after a bye week since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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IOWA ST (6 - 6) vs. TULSA (10 - 3) - 12/31/2012, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
IOWA ST is 22-40 ATS (-22.0 Units) in road games in games played on turf since 1992.
TULSA is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
TULSA is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
IOWA ST is 1-0 against the spread versus TULSA over the last 3 seasons
IOWA ST is 1-0 straight up against TULSA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEMSON (10 - 2) vs. LSU (10 - 2) - 12/31/2012, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEMSON is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Tuesday, January 1

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PURDUE (6 - 6) vs. OKLAHOMA ST (7 - 5) - 1/1/2013, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA ST is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA ST is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA ST is 23-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NORTHWESTERN (9 - 3) vs. MISSISSIPPI ST (8 - 4) - 1/1/2013, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NORTHWESTERN is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all games this season.
NORTHWESTERN is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
NORTHWESTERN is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MICHIGAN (8 - 4) vs. S CAROLINA (10 - 2) - 1/1/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MICHIGAN is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
S CAROLINA is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEBRASKA (10 - 3) vs. GEORGIA (11 - 2) - 1/1/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GEORGIA is 55-35 ATS (+16.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
GEORGIA is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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WISCONSIN (8 - 5) vs. STANFORD (11 - 2) - 1/1/2013, 5:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
STANFORD is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
STANFORD is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons.
STANFORD is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
STANFORD is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
STANFORD is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
STANFORD is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
STANFORD is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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N ILLINOIS (11 - 2) vs. FLORIDA ST (11 - 2) - 1/1/2013, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLORIDA ST is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points this season.
FLORIDA ST is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Wednesday, January 2

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LOUISVILLE (10 - 2) vs. FLORIDA (11 - 1) - 1/2/2013, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Thursday, January 3

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KANSAS ST (11 - 1) vs. OREGON (11 - 1) - 1/3/2013, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OREGON is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
OREGON is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
OREGON is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS ST is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all games this season.
KANSAS ST is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
KANSAS ST is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS ST is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Friday, January 4

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TEXAS A&M (10 - 2) vs. OKLAHOMA (10 - 2) - 1/4/2013, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TEXAS A&M is 5-19 ATS (-15.9 Units) in road games after a bye week since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA is 1-1 against the spread versus TEXAS A&M over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA is 1-1 straight up against TEXAS A&M over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Saturday, January 5

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PITTSBURGH (6 - 6) vs. OLE MISS (6 - 6) - 1/5/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OLE MISS is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in road games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 40-22 ATS (+15.8 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Sunday, January 6

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ARKANSAS ST (9 - 3) vs. KENT ST (12 - 1) - 1/6/2013, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KENT ST is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) off a win against a conference rival this season.
KENT ST is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins this season.
KENT ST is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in all games this season.
KENT ST is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
KENT ST is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) after playing a conference game this season.
KENT ST is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in games played on turf this season.
ARKANSAS ST is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
ARKANSAS ST is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons.
ARKANSAS ST is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 3 seasons.
ARKANSAS ST is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ARKANSAS ST is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
ARKANSAS ST is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
ARKANSAS ST is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Monday, January 7

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ALABAMA (12 - 1) vs. NOTRE DAME (12 - 0) - 1/7/2013, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ALABAMA is 41-20 ATS (+19.0 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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[Udog]

NCAAF

Week 15

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saturday, December 15

1:00 PM
NEVADA vs. ARIZONA
Nevada is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games
Nevada is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Arizona's last 8 games
Arizona is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games

4:30 PM
TOLEDO vs. UTAH STATE
Toledo is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toledo's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Utah State's last 11 games
Utah State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games


Thursday, December 20

8:00 PM
BYU vs. SAN DIEGO STATE
BYU is 16-6 SU in its last 22 games
BYU is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Diego State
San Diego State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego State's last 6 games


Friday, December 21

7:30 PM
BALL STATE vs. CENTRAL FLORIDA
Ball State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Ball State's last 17 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Central Florida's last 9 games
Central Florida is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games


Saturday, December 22

12:00 PM
EAST CAROLINA vs. LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE
East Carolina is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of East Carolina's last 5 games
Louisiana-Lafayette is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Louisiana-Lafayette's last 6 games

3:30 PM
WASHINGTON vs. BOISE STATE
Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Boise State is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
Boise State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games


Monday, December 24

8:00 PM
SOUTHERN METHODIST vs. FRESNO STATE
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Southern Methodist's last 7 games
Southern Methodist is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Fresno State
Fresno State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Fresno State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Southern Methodist


Wednesday, December 26

7:30 PM
CENTRAL MICHIGAN vs. WESTERN KENTUCKY
Central Michigan is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Central Michigan is 6-19 ATS in its last 25 games
Western Kentucky is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Western Kentucky is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games


Thursday, December 27

3:00 PM
BOWLING GREEN vs. SAN JOSE STATE
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Bowling Green's last 7 games
Bowling Green is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
San Jose State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Jose State's last 7 games

6:30 PM
CINCINNATI vs. DUKE
Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Duke is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Duke's last 8 games

9:45 PM
BAYLOR vs. UCLA
Baylor is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Baylor's last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of UCLA's last 5 games
UCLA is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games


Friday, December 28

2:00 PM
OHIO vs. LOUISIANA-MONROE
Ohio is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games
Ohio is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games
Louisiana-Monroe is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Louisiana-Monroe's last 6 games

5:30 PM
RUTGERS vs. VIRGINIA TECH
Rutgers is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Virginia Tech
Rutgers is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Virginia Tech is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Rutgers

9:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. TEXAS TECH
Minnesota is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
Minnesota is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Texas Tech's last 6 games
Texas Tech is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games


Saturday, December 29

11:45 AM
AIR FORCE vs. RICE
Air Force is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games
Rice is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

3:15 PM
WEST VIRGINIA vs. SYRACUSE
West Virginia is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
West Virginia is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Syracuse
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Syracuse's last 5 games
Syracuse is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing West Virginia

4:00 PM
NAVY vs. ARIZONA STATE
Navy is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Navy's last 9 games
Arizona State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Arizona State is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games

6:45 PM
OREGON STATE vs. TEXAS
Oregon State is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games
Texas is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
Texas is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games

10:15 PM
TCU vs. MICHIGAN STATE
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of TCU's last 5 games
TCU is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Michigan State is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Michigan State's last 6 games


Monday, December 31

12:00 PM
NORTH CAROLINA STATE vs. VANDERBILT
North Carolina State is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of North Carolina State's last 7 games
Vanderbilt is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

2:00 PM
GEORGIA TECH vs. SOUTHERN CAL
No trends available
Southern Cal is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Southern Cal is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

3:30 PM
IOWA STATE vs. TULSA
Iowa State is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Iowa State is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tulsa's last 7 games
Tulsa is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games

7:30 PM
CLEMSON vs. LSU
Clemson is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Clemson's last 6 games
LSU is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
LSU is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games


Tuesday, January 1

12:00 PM
NORTHWESTERN vs. MISSISSIPPI STATE
Northwestern is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Northwestern's last 6 games
Mississippi State is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games
Mississippi State is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

12:00 PM
PURDUE vs. OKLAHOMA STATE
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Purdue's last 10 games
Purdue is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oklahoma State's last 5 games
Oklahoma State is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games

1:00 PM
MICHIGAN vs. SOUTH CAROLINA
Michigan is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Michigan is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games
South Carolina is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games

1:00 PM
NEBRASKA vs. GEORGIA
Nebraska is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Nebraska is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games
Georgia is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

5:00 PM
WISCONSIN vs. STANFORD
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Wisconsin's last 7 games
Wisconsin is 13-6 SU in its last 19 games
Stanford is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

8:30 PM
NORTHERN ILLINOIS vs. FLORIDA STATE
Northern Illinois is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Florida State is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Florida State is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games


Wednesday, January 2

8:30 PM
LOUISVILLE vs. FLORIDA
Louisville is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games
Louisville is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Florida is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Florida is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games


Thursday, January 3

8:30 PM
KANSAS STATE vs. OREGON
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas State's last 5 games
Kansas State is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oregon's last 5 games
Oregon is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games


Saturday, January 4

8:00 PM
TEXAS A&M vs. OKLAHOMA
Texas A&M is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Texas A&M is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Oklahoma
Oklahoma is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oklahoma's last 5 games


Sunday, January 5

1:00 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. MISSISSIPPI
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games
Pittsburgh is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Mississippi is 6-13 SU in its last 19 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Mississippi's last 6 games


Monday, January 6

9:00 PM
ARKANSAS STATE vs. KENT STATE
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arkansas State's last 6 games
Arkansas State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kent State's last 7 games
Kent State is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games


Monday, January 7

8:30 PM
ALABAMA vs. NOTRE DAME
Alabama is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Alabama is 16-1 SU in its last 17 games
Notre Dame is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Notre Dame's last 11 games


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[Udog]

NCAAF
Short Sheet

Bowl Season

Saturday, December 15, 2012

Gildan New Mexico Bowl
Nevada vs. Arizona, 1:00 ET ESPN
Nevada: 0-7 ATS with a total of 63+ points
Arizona: 11-2 ATS off a home game scoring and allowing 31+ points

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Toledo vs. Utah State, 4:30 ET ESPN
Toledo: 11-1 Over off a conference win by 10+ points
Utah State: 6-0 ATS off a win by 21+ points




NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Season

Saturday, December 15

New Mexico Bowl
Arizona won four of last six games after 54-48 OT loss at Stanford Oct. 6; Wildcats played six games this year (3-3) where losing team scored 31+ points; so did Nevada (2-4). Wolf Pack lost four of last five games, with only win over New Mexico team (on this field) that didn't complete a pass (0-2); they are 2-1 as underdogs this year, upsetting Pac-12's Cal 31-24 (+10). Nevada lost four of last five bowls, including 23-0 loss in this game to host Lobos five years ago; dogs covered their last four bowls. Arizona went 10 years with no bowls, but is bowling now for 4th time in last five years; they lost last two bowls, in ’09-‘10, 33-0/36-10. Seven of last eight Arizona games, four of last six Nevada games went over the total. Pac-12 non-conference favorites are 4-11 against spread. MWC underdogs are 16-5.

Idaho Potato Bowl
Utah State is 10-2, losing 16-14 (+14) at Wisconsin, 6-3 (+6.5) at BYU; Aggies are 10-1 vs spread this year; only non-cover was 45-9 win as a 38-point favorite- they won 49-27 at San Jose, 48-41ot at La Tech, two bowl teams. Toledo is 5-0 vs spread as an underdog this year- they lost opener in OT at Arizona, then won eight games in row, then gave up 34-31 points in losses to Ball State/Northern Illinois. Rockets played couple of exciting bowls last two years, losing 34-32 in ’10, winning 42-41 LY; average total in their last five bowls is 66.6. Utah State lost Potato Bowl 24-23 LY, in their first bowl since 1997. WAC favorites are 5-5 against spread out of conference; MAC underdogs are 17-15.

[Udog]

Where the action is: Bowl season's biggest line moves

College football bowl odds have been out for just over a week now and action has steadily come in, forcing oddsmakers to tinker with the spreads heading into the first slate of games.

We talk to Aaron Kessler, sportsbooks supervisor at the Golden Nugget in Las Vegas, about the biggest line moves on the bowl board so far:

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: – Toledo Rockets vs. Utah State Aggies - Open: -8, Move: -10

This game is one of two matchups ringing in the bowl season Saturday. Utah State, which lost just two games and went 10-1-1 ATS this season, has jumped from -8 to -10 versus the Rockets, who finished 9-3 SU.

“Right now, we have a little more on Utah State,” says Kessler, who opened the Aggies as 10-point favorites. “I think the move you saw (at online books) was early money hitting a rouge number.”

Las Vegas Bowl: Washington Huskies vs. Boise State Broncos – Open: -7.5, Move: -5

This game will see a ton of action in Las Vegas on Dec. 22, with fans from both sides hitting the sportsbook before making the trip to Sam Boyd Stadium. Boise State, known for its bowl game antics, has been bet down by early action after opening as high as -7.5.

“Boise State has had a silent year. People kind of forgot about them,” says Kessler. “This one could come down to which teams fans bring the most money with them (to Las Vegas).”

Belk Bowl: Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Duke Blue Devils – Open: +10.5, Move: +7

Money has faded the Bearcats since the announcement that head coach Butch Jones would be leaving for Tennessee. Cincinnati has since hired Tommy Tuberville as his replacement but will hand the keys over to the remaining coaching staff for the Belk Bowl.

“Duke’s going to be really hungry in this one because it’s been so long between bowl games,” says Kessler, referring to the Blue Devils’ 17-year bowl absence since playing in the 1995 Hall of Fame Bowl. “Duke is going to be jacked up.”

Russell Athletic Bowl: Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. Virginia Tech Hokies – Open: Pick, Move: -2.5

Early money has leaned towards the Hokies in this ACC/Big East battle on Dec. 28. Kessler, who opened Virginia Tech -1.5, took some big wagers on the Hokies this past week.

“We got hit on Virginia Tech and moved to -2.5,” he says. “It’s been really hard to bet on Virginia Tech this season, but they are clearly the better of the two teams.”

Armed Forces Bowl: Rice Owls vs. Air Force Falcons – Open: +1, Move: -1

This spread jumped the fence after opening with the Falcons as 1-point underdogs at some online shops. The Golden Nugget opened Air Force -1 and has taken a little bit of action on this Dec. 29 contest, with a slight lean towards Rice.

“They’re pretty much at home. It’s just a short drive across the state,” Kessler says of the Owls’ proximity to Fort Worth.

Liberty Bowl: Iowa State Cyclones vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane – Open: -3, Move: Pick

The Golden Hurricane opened as high as field-goal favorites for this New Year’s Eve bowl but money has jumped on the Cyclones and current has most shops dealing a pick’em.

“This looks like a conference power play, with the Big 12 going against the C-USA,” says Kessler. “Tulsa can be pretty exciting though. If they solve that defense this game could be over in a hurry.”

Sugar Bowl: Louisville Cardinals vs. Florida Gators – Open: -15.5, Move: -13

Some books opened Florida as a monster favorite but drew early UL money and have since come down to -13. Kessler opened at -13 and has taken nothing but Gators bets but could see the line shrink even more.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if it doesn’t go higher,” he says. “I think the wise guys will take back on Louisville.”

GoDaddy.com Bowl: Kent State Golden Flashes vs. Arkansas State Redwolves – Open: Pick, Move: -4

Both teams have watched their head coaches run to bigger schools this postseason, leaving Kent State and Arkansas State in the hands of assistants for this Jan. 6 bowl game.

The early money flooded in on ASU when rumors started about KSU’s Darrell Hazell departure to Purdue. Now, bets are coming back on the Golden Flashes with Gus Malzahn taking the open job at Auburn.

“I think it hurts Arkansas State more,” Kessler says of the two coaching changes. “Malzahn is a genius and I don’t know how much of his system his assistants were able to absorb.”

[Udog]

NCAAF
Dunkel

Bowl Season

Toledo vs. Utah State
The Aggies look to follow up their 45-9 win over Idaho in the regular season finale and build on their 6-0 ATS record in their last 6 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. Utah State is the pick (-10) according to Dunkel, which has the Aggies favored by 14. Dunkel Pick: Utah State (-10). Here are all of this year's bowl games.

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 15

Game 201-202: Nevada vs. Arizona (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nevada 81.737; Arizona 87.552
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 6; 79
Vegas Line: Arizona by 10; 75
Dunkel Pick: Nevada (+10); Over

Game 203-204: Toledo vs. Utah State (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toledo 80.536; Utah State 94.443
Dunkel Line: Utah State by 14; 54
Vegas Line: Utah State by 10; 58 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Utah State (-10); Under

[Udog]

NCAAF
Dunkel

Bowl Season

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 20

Game 205-206: BYU vs. San Diego State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: BYU 92.020; San Diego State 92.764
Dunkel Line: San Diego State by 1; 52
Vegas Line: BYU by 3; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego State (+3); Over


FRIDAY, DECEMBER 21

Game 207-208: Central Florida vs. Ball State (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Central Florida 95.374; Ball State 83.632
Dunkel Line: Central Florida by 11 1/2; 55
Vegas Line: Central Florida by 7; 61 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Central Florida (-7); Under


SATURDAY, DECEMBER 22

Game 209-210: East Carolina vs. UL-Lafayette (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: East Carolina 77.270; UL-Lafayette 85.709
Dunkel Line: UL-Lafayette by 8 1/2; 59
Vegas Line: UL-Lafayette by 5 1/2; 64 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UL-Lafayette (-5 1/2); Under

Game 211-212: Washington vs. Boise State (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 100.064; Boise State 95.383
Dunkel Line: Washington by 4 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Boise State by 5 1/2; 46
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+5 1/2); Over


MONDAY, DECEMBER 24

Game 213-214: Fresno State vs. SMU (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Fresno State 97.175; SMU 78.675
Dunkel Line: Fresno State by 18 1/2; 55
Vegas Line: Fresno State by 12; 59 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Fresno State (-12); Under


WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 26

Game 215-216: Western Kentucky vs. Central Michigan (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Kentucky 76.975; Central Michigan 70.778
Dunkel Line: Western Kentucky by 6; 62
Vegas Line: Western Kentucky by 5; 58 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Western Kentucky (-5); Over


THURSDAY, DECEMBER 27

Game 217-218: San Jose State vs. Bowling Green (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose State 86.323; Bowling Green 83.717
Dunkel Line: San Jose State by 2 1/2; 54
Vegas Line: San Jose State by 7; 47
Dunkel Pick: Bowling Green (+7); Over

Game 219-220: Cincinnati vs. Duke (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 92.110; Duke 79.712
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 12 1/2; 55
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 7; 60
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-7); Under

Game 221-222: Baylor vs. UCLA (9:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baylor 106.482; UCLA 105.469
Dunkel Line: Baylor by 1; 83
Vegas Line: UCLA by 1; 79 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baylor (+1); Over


FRIDAY, DECEMBER 28

Game 223-224: Ohio vs. UL-Monroe (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio 71.274; UL-Monroe 79.423
Dunkel Line: UL-Monroe by 8; 57
Vegas Line: UL-Monroe by 7; 60
Dunkel Pick: UL-Monroe (-7); Under

Game 225-226: Rutgers vs. Virginia Tech (5:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rutgers 83.855; Virginia Tech 88.030
Dunkel Line: Virginia Tech by 4; 46
Vegas Line: Virginia Tech by 2; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Virginia Tech (-2); Over

Game 227-228: Minnesota vs. Texas Tech (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 80.863; Texas Tech 95.660
Dunkel Line: Texas Tech by 15; 54
Vegas Line: Texas Tech by 12 1/2; 57
Dunkel Pick: Texas Tech (-12 1/2); Under


SATURDAY, DECEMBER 29

Game 229-230: Air Force vs. Rice (11:45 a.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Air Force 73.294; Rice 80.638
Dunkel Line: Rice by 7 1/2; 65
Vegas Line: Air Force by 1 1/2; 61
Dunkel Pick: Rice (+1 1/2); Over

Game 231-232: Navy vs. Arizona State (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Navy 80.340; Arizona State 97.714
Dunkel Line: Arizona State by 17 1/2; 54
Vegas Line: Arizona State by 13 1/2; 58
Dunkel Pick: Arizona State (-13 1/2); Under

Game 233-234: West Virginia vs. Syracuse (3:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: West Virginia 99.805; Syracuse 91.222
Dunkel Line: West Virginia by 8 1/2; 69
Vegas Line: West Virginia by 4; 73 1/2
Dunkel Pick: West Virginia (-4); Under

Game 235-236: Texas vs. Oregon State (6:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas 102.941; Oregon State 102.114
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 62
Vegas Line: Oregon State by 2; 56 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+2); Over

Game 237-238: TCU vs. Michigan State (10:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: TCU 97.924; Michigan State 97.561
Dunkel Line: Even; 47
Vegas Line: TCU by 3; 41
Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (+3); Over


MONDAY, DECEMBER 31

Game 239-240: NC State vs. Vanderbilt (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NC State 85.848; Vanderbilt 99.245
Dunkel Line: Vanderbilt by 13 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Vanderbilt by 6 1/2; 52
Dunkel Pick: Vanderbilt (-6 1/2); Under

Game 241-242: USC vs. Georgia Tech (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: USC 107.334; Georgia Tech 92.800
Dunkel Line: USC by 14 1/2; 68
Vegas Line: USC by 10; 64
Dunkel Pick: USC (-10); Over

Game 243-244: Iowa State vs. Tulsa (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Iowa State 90.884; Tulsa 93.410
Dunkel Line: Tulsa by 2 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Pick; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tulsa; Under

Game 245-246: Clemson vs. LSU (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Clemson 105.662; LSU 104.694
Dunkel Line: Clemson by 1; 63
Vegas Line: LSU by 4; 58 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Clemson (+4); Over


TUESDAY, JANUARY 1

Game 247-248: Purdue vs. Oklahoma State (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Purdue 79.800; Oklahoma State 111.319
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma State by 31 1/2; 67
Vegas Line: Oklahoma State by 16 1/2; 70
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma State (-16 1/2); Under

Game 249-250: Mississippi State vs. Northwestern (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi State 97.727; Northwestern 92.241
Dunkel Line: Mississippi State by 5 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Mississippi State by 2 1/2; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi State (-2 1/2); Under

Game 251-252: South Carolina vs. Michigan (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Carolina 103.394; Michigan 99.964
Dunkel Line: South Carolina by 3 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: South Carolina by 5; 48
Dunkel Pick: Michigan (+5); Over

Game 253-254: Nebraska vs. Georgia (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nebraska 89.974; Georgia 111.264
Dunkel Line: Georgia by 21 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Georgia by 10; 59 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Georgia (-10); Under

Game 255-256: Wisconsin vs. Stanford (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wisconsin 98.858; Stanford 113.796
Dunkel Line: Stanford by 15; 52
Vegas Line: Stanford by 6 1/2; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Stanford (-6 1/2); Over

Game 257-258: Northern Illinois vs. Florida State (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Illinois 98.871; Florida State 99.432
Dunkel Line: Florida State by 1; 62
Vegas Line: Florida State by 13; 58 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Northern Illinois (+13); Over


WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 2

Game 259-260: Louisville vs. Florida (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Louisville 83.126; Florida 104.748
Dunkel Line: Florida by 21 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Florida by 13; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-13); Under


THURSDAY, JANUARY 3

Game 261-262: Oregon vs. Kansas State (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon 120.231; Kansas State 103.251
Dunkel Line: Oregon by 17; 71
Vegas Line: Oregon by 9; 75 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oregon (-9); Under


FRIDAY, JANUARY 4

Game 263-264: Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas A&M 110.565; Oklahoma 107.678
Dunkel Line: Texas A&M by 3; 75
Vegas Line: Texas A&M by 4 1/2; 71 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma (+4 1/2); Over


SATURDAY, JANUARY 5

Game 265-266: Pittsburgh vs. Mississippi (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 86.586; Mississippi 99.556
Dunkel Line: Mississippi by 13; 63
Vegas Line: Mississippi by 3 1/2; 52
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi (-3 1/2); Over


SUNDAY, JANUARY 6

Game 267-268: Kent State vs. Arkansas State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kent State 88.321; Arkansas State 93.083
Dunkel Line: Arkansas State by 5; 58
Vegas Line: Arkansas State by 3 1/2; 61
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas State (-3 1/2); Under


MONDAY, JANUARY 7

Game 269-270: Alabama vs. Notre Dame (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Alabama 113.759; Notre Dame 107.478
Dunkel Line: Alabama by 6 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Alabama by 10; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Notre Dame (+10); Over

[Udog]

NCAAF
Short Sheet

Bowl Season

Thursday, December 20, 2012

San Diego County Credit Poinsettia Bowl
BYU vs. San Diego State, 1:00 ET ESPN
BYU: 8-0 ATS after winning 3 of their last 4 games
San Diego State: 12-27 ATS off BB ATS wins


Friday, December 21, 2012

Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl
Ball State vs. Central Florida, 7:30 ET ESPN
Ball State: 6-0 ATS off a road win
Central Florida: 9-1 Over as a favorite


Saturday, December 22, 2012

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
East Carolina vs. Louisiana Lafayette, 12:00 ET ESPN | Matt Fargo's Bowl Preview
East Carolina: 11-3 ATS away playing on artificial turf
LA Lafayette: 10-2 Over off BB conference games

MAACO Las Vegas Bowl
Washington vs. Boise State, 3:30 ET ESPN
Washington: 16-30 ATS off a conference road loss
Boise State: 6-0 ATS away vs. non-conference opponents


Monday, December 24, 2012

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl
SMU vs. Fresno State, 8:00 ET ESPN
SMU: 0-6 ATS away after committing 1 or 0 turnovers
Fresno State: 9-0 ATS as a favorite


Wednesday, December 26, 2012

Little Caesars Pizza Bowl
Central Michigan vs. Western Kentucky, 7:30 ET ESPN
Central Michigan: 2-9 ATS off a road game
Western Kentucky: 7-0 ATS away off a conference game

[Udog]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Season

Thursday, December 20

Poinsettia Bowl (San Diego)
Home game for San Diego State, which won this game 35-14 in '10, then lost New Orleans Bowl LY; Aztecs won last seven games after 2-3 start, winning SU as underdogs at Nevada/Boise St. State is 3-1 as an underdog this year. BYU lost four of six road games this year, with only wins vs Ga Tech/New Mexico State; they won their last four games with former MWC rival Aztecs by average score of 38-22. Cougars are 6-0 if they score 30+ points, 1-5 if they don't; they're 3-4 as favorites this season. Aztecs held five of last seven foes under 20 points. BYU won last three bowls, scoring 40 ppg. MWC underdogs are 16-5 vs spread this season, 3-0 at home. BYU coach Mendenhall is 5-2 in bowls, San Diego State's Long 2-4. Underdogs covered four of last five Poinsettia Bowls, with Aztecs only one of the five favorites to cover. San Diego State is only team to beat Boise/Nevada in same season, since they've been I-A teams.


Friday, December 21

Beef O'Brady Bowl (St Petersburg)
First bowl for Ball State since their 12-2 season in '08; they lost last two bowls, 52-30/45-13, are 0-5 all-time (1-2 vs spread). 90-minute trip west for UCF, which lost 45-24 (+2) in this game to Rutgers three years ago; Knights are 1-3 in bowls- they beat Georgia 10-6 in Liberty Bowl two years ago, their last bowl. Ball State won last six games after a 3-3 start; losing side scored 26+ points in 8 of their 12 games. Cardinals are 4-1 vs spread as an underdog this year; UCF is 5-5 as a favorite. 10 of 13 UCF games went over total; Cardinals allowed 400+ TY in nine of 12 games. MAC dogs are 17-15 vs spread, 13-11 on road. C-USA favorites are 4-6 vs spread this season. Indoor game, so weather not an issue. Favorites covered three of previous four O'Brady games, with C-USA teams 1-3 in those games, but all three losses were to Big East teams.


Saturday, December 22

New Orleans Bowl
I tend to be wary of teams going back to same bowl they won LY; UL-Lafayette (+4) upset San Diego State 32-30 in this game LY, their first-ever bowl, in front of partisan crowd of 42,000+; their excitement level can’t be the same for this game. ULL scored 31-52-35 points in last three games; they allowed 21+ in last seven, and are 3-3-1 vs spread as favorites this year. East Carolina beat Tulane 28-23 on this field November 17, so they’ll be in familiar surroundings, only with much bigger crowd. All four of ECU’s losses this year are by 20+ points; they scored 41+ points in last four wins. Pirates are in 5th bowl in last six years after staying home LY; they’ve lost last three bowls, but those were all vs SEC/ACC teams. ECU’s last bowl win was an upset of Boise State in Hawai’i five years ago. ULL played slightly tougher schedule this year. Sun Belt non-conference favorites are 5-2 vs spread this year; C-USA road dogs are 7-12. This will basically be a ULL home game.

Las Vegas Bowl
Washington lost three of last four bowls, beating Nebraska 19-7 two years ago, before RGIII/Baylor ran them out of Alamodome LY, 67-56, game that cost DC Holt his job—he was replaced by Justin Wilcox, who was Boise’s DC from 2006-09. Boise State is in Las Vegas Bowl for third year in row (won 26-3/56-24 last two years, both as double digit favorites vs Pac-12 teams), so little bit wary of Broncos here, since they’ve got new QB/OC from LY. Peterson is 4-2 in bowl games (5-1 vs spread); Boise scored 27+ points in 8 of 12 games this year, but won three of four when they scored less- this is a less explosive Bronco team that has a better defense. Washington was on 4-game win streak and had 18-point lead in Apple Cup rivalry game, but blew that game- they allowed 17 or less points in all seven wins. Huskies are 5-3 vs spread as an underdog this year; Boise is 5-6 as a favorite. MWC non-conference favorites are 6-8 vs spread; Pac-12 underdogs are 7-4.


Monday, December 24

Hawai’i Bowl
SMU coach Jones is a legend in Paradise, having coached Rainbow Warriors for nine years (’99-’07), some of best years in program history; his SMU team won this game 45-10 as a 12-point dog over Nevada (and Colin Kaepernick) three years ago, so can’t dismiss them here, even though they’re 6-6, with four losses by 22+ points. Jones is 6-3 overall in bowls; Mustangs are 4-3 vs spread as underdogs this year- they run ball lot more than Jones’ usual run-and-shoot team, mainly because his QBs aren’t good enough to throw on every down. Fresno State is 8-0 vs spread as a favorite this year, 6-0 when laying double digits; Bulldogs won last five games, scoring 47.2 ppg. Pat Hill lost his last three bowls with Fresno, allowing 40-35-40 points; they’ve lost six of last eight bowls, overall. Average total in Bulldogs’ last five bowls is 63.6. C-USA non-conference underdogs are 12-20 vs spread this year; MWC favorites are 6-8 against the spread.


Wednesday, December 26

Little Caesar’s Bowl
Western Kentucky has to be thrilled to be playing in its first-ever bowl, especially after being snubbed LY, but coach Taggart dampened lot of the enthusiasm by bolting for South Florida job. WKU lost four of last six games, allowed 31.5 ppg in last four and failed to cover last three tries as a favorite, but they held Alabama to 328 TY, 2nd-least Crimson Tide gained this year in 35-0 (+38) loss in September. Five of last seven WKU games were decided by 5 or less points. Central Michigan won four of last five games to get here, and maybe save coach Enos’ job; he is 12-24 in three years, but was 8-23 before late surge, at a school used to recent success. Chippewas are 2-4 in bowl games, with last three all decided by exactly 3 points- they’re 1-5 vs spread as an underdog this year, giving up 41+ points in five of their six losses, all while playing #118 (out of 124) ranked schedule. MAC underdogs are 17-15 vs spread this season; Sun Belt favorites are 5-2.

[Udog]

NCAAF

Saturday, December 15

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New Mexico Bowl: What bettors need to know
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New Mexico Bowl: Nevada Wolf Pack vs. Arizona Wildcats (-9.5, 75.5)

GILDAN NEW MEXICO BOWL STORYLINES

1. The game will feature two of the nation's top four runners in Arizona sophomore Ka'Deem Carey (second) and Nevada junior Stefphon Jefferson (fourth). Carey’s 1,757 rushing yards is already a single-season school record while Jefferson stands at 1,703 yards and needs 30 to break the Wolf Pack’s single-season mark.

2. The stage is set for both runners to have memorable games. Nevada, which ranks seventh in the country in rushing and 20th in scoring, will square off against Arizona’s 89th-ranked rush defense and 103rd scoring defense. Similarly, the Wildcats’ ground game and scoring offense – both ranked 17th in the nation – will face the Wolf Pack’s 112th-ranked rush defense and 95th-ranked scoring defense.

3. Two of college football’s most innovative coaches will be matching wits for the first time. Arizona’s Rich Rodriguez is considered as a pioneer of a no-huddle, run-oriented version of the spread offense while Nevada’s Chris Ault is credited as the creator of the “Pistol” offense that has only accentuated the athletic ability of quarterbacks such as Colin Kaepernick since he began using it in 2005.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Arizona opened as an 8-point favorite and has been bet up as high as -10. The total has climbed from 75 to 75.5.

WEATHER: There is a 9 percent chance of snow for University Stadium and temperatures will dip into the high 30s. Winds are expected to blow west at 8 mph.

CONSENSUS: 54 percent of Covers Consensus players are picking Arizona while 53 percent are on the over.

TRENDS:

* Wolf Pack are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games.
* Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. MWC.
* Under is 5-1 in Wolf Pack's last six Bowl games.
* Over is 7-1 in Wildcats' last eight games overall.

ABOUT NEVADA (7-5, 4-4 Mountain West, 3-9 ATS): Unlike the “Pistol” attack that saw the quarterback (Kaepernick) overshadow the running back (Vai Taua) two years ago, Jefferson has been the main beneficiary this season. But sophomore quarterback Cody Fajardo certainly did his best impression of Kaepernick in 2012, throwing for 2,530 yards and 17 touchdowns while running for 981 yards and 11 more scores. However, the Wolf Pack – and the defense in particular – have been in a tailspin since a 6-1 start as they went 0-4 against the top four teams in their conference over the second half of the schedule. In those four losses, Nevada surrendered an average of 277 rushing yards, 471 total yards and 41.5 points.

ABOUT ARIZONA (7-5, 4-5 Pac-12, 6-6 ATS): While the running game is the primary focus, the passing game is hardly without playmakers. Sophomore receiver Austin Hill posted 1,189 receiving yards and nine receiving touchdowns – the fourth and seventh-best single-season totals in school history, respectively – while Matt Scott’s 3,238 passing yards is the third-highest mark for a Wildcats quarterback in a season. Despite all the offensive success and surprising wins over the likes of Oklahoma State and USC, this is the same team that scored a combined 10 points in losses to Oregon and UCLA. Rodriguez’s seven wins in his rookie campaign were the most by an Arizona coach in his first season since Jim Young led the Wildcats to an 8-3 mark in 1973.


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[Udog]

NCAAF

Saturday, December 15

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Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: What bettors need to know
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Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Toledo Rockets vs. Utah State Aggies (-10, 58.5)

FAMOUS IDAHO POTATO BOWL STORYLINES

1. Toledo’s talented running back David Fluellen and quarterback Terrance Owens both missed the last regular-season game on Nov. 20 against Akron with ankle injuries, but will have almost four weeks to recover.

2. Utah State set a school record for victories this season, won an outright conference title for the first time since 1936 by finishing 6-0 in the Western Athletic Conference and tries to win its first bowl game since 1993.

3. Toledo averages 32.9 points and 456.1 yards (28th in the nation), while 20th-ranked Utah State is eighth in the nation in scoring defense (15.4) and 15th in total defense.

TV: 4:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Utah State opened as low as -8 and has been bet up to as high as -10.5. The total has moved from 57.5 to 58.5.

WEATHER: Snow is in the forecast for Boise, with an 18 percent chance of precipitation. Temperatures will be in the low 30s.

CONSENSUS: 53 percent of Covers Consensus players are on Utah State while 60 percent are on the over.

TRENDS:

* Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. WAC.
* Aggies are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 non-conference games.
* Under is 5-0 in Rockets' last five games overall.
* Under is 6-0 in Aggies' last six non-conference games.

ABOUT TOLEDO (9-3, 6-2 MAC, 7-5 ATS): The Rockets hope to have Fluellen and Owens back for Utah State, although senior quarterback Austin Dantin threw for five touchdowns and David Pasquale rushed for 93 yards in the 35-23 victory over Akron to end the regular season. The versatile Fluellen fuels the Rockets' offense, averaging 132.7 yards with 13 touchdowns. Owens, who has completed 62.8 percent of his passes and averaged 243.4 yards through the air, has also thrown for 14 scores. Bernard Reedy is the top target with 82 receptions for 1,051 yards. The Rockets will need some big plays from their defense, which has 17 interceptions but has allowed an average of 27.3 points. Toledo edged Air Force 42-41 in the Military Bowl last year to improve its bowl record to 8-4.

ABOUT UTAH STATE (10-2, 6-0 WAC, 10-1-1 ATS): The Aggies come into the game with six straight victories and have won 15 of their last 18 overall. Utah State lost 24-23 in the Potato Bowl last year to Toledo’s MAC rival Ohio and its two defeats this season have come by a combined five points to Wisconsin (16-14) and Brigham Young (6-3). The Aggies are the only team in the nation not to allow a touchdown in the first quarter. Utah State’s offense has also produced, averaging more than 30 points led by quarterback Chuckie Keeton. The sophomore has completed 67.6 percent of his passes, thrown for 27 touchdowns and rushed for more than 500 yards. Senior running back Kerwynn Williams leads the team in rushing (1,277 yards) and receiving (663), while scoring 17 times. The Aggies are 1-6 in bowls.


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