Announcement

**Udog** · 12-10-2012, 09:00 AM

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Six most popular picks and six least popular picks in LVH handicapping contest, which has 700+ contestants, all of whom who pick five NFL games a week against the spread. They put up $1,500 each, so these are serious handicappers........

6) Minnesota Vikings, 154- W
5) Baltimore Ravens, 158- L
T3) Cleveland Browns, 159- W
T3) New England Patriots, 159
2) Cincinnati Bengals, 185- L
1) Carolina Panthers, 202- W

25) Miami Dolphins, 83- L
26) New Jersey Giants, 82- W
27) Kansas City Chiefs, 78- L
28) Jacksonville Jaguars, 75- L
29) Seattle Seahawks, 63- W
31) San Diego Chargers, 40- W

*****

Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday..........

13) If you ever get the idea that these pro teams know everything about how they run their franchises, think again. Denver drafted Arizona State's Brock Osweiler in the 2nd round; QB turned out to not be an area of need.

Seattle drafted Russell Wilson in the third round, despite paying $13M for former Green Bay backup Matt Flynn. Its worked out well for them, but that $13M might've been better-spent elsewhere.

Also have to remember Tom Brady was a 6th round pick, two-time MVP Kurt Warner was never drafted. Drafting is an inexact science.

12) Iowa State sold its allotment of 10,000 tickets for the Liberty Bowl in less than 72 hours; that people, is how you get invited to bowls even after a mediocre 6-6 season. Bowls are businesses, thats the bottom line.

11) Who thought the Chargers would win easily in Pittsburgh? Five of 12 San Diego drives started in Steeler territory; Bolts had an 18-yard advantage in field position. Four teams this week had a 10+ yard edge in average field position- they scored an average of 42.5 ppg, covering all four games.

10) Colts' Bruce Arians is going to be Coach of the Year, even though he is an interim coach, but can't overlook the job Jeff Fisher is doing with Rams, who were 2-14 last year, 15-65 the previous five years. At 6-6-1, the Rams are still alive for a playoff spot, despite an offense that just isn't very good.

Sam Bradford led an 84-yard, 14-play drive that won the game with 0:48 left; watching the first half, you wouldn't have thought it was possible.

9) Tampa Bay Rays traded James Shields to the Royals for Wil Myers, the big outfield prospect. End of an era for the Rays; Shields helped Tampa Bay get to the World Series in 2008. Thats modern baseball; guys get some mileage on them, they start earning big money, they become expendable.

8) Cleveland Browns won their third game in row; wonder if their new owner has made up his mind about about whether to keep coach Shurmur or not. They seem to be making some progress.

7) Giants had a 30-yard edge in average field position; don't think I've ever seen that before. 7 of 13 Giant drives started in New Orleans terrritory, plus they ran a kick back for a TD.

6) If you owned the Dodgers, and you're going to wheel out the biggest payroll in baseball history next spring, are you content that your manager is Don Mattingly? Wouldn't you want a more accomplished skipper?

5) Carolina whacked the Falcons, Philly won at Tampa Bay; hard to figure this stuff out. Minnesota scored three TD's; one on a 5-yard drive, another scored by defense. Bears are 7-16 when Brian Urlacher doesn't play.

4) Bengals dropped back to pass 38 times, ran it 20 times against a defense whose starting nose tackle is hurt, its #2 nose tackle is in jail; not good.

Cincinnati drove 70 yards in five plays for a TD first time they had the ball, then never scored another TD, as they gagged away a 20-19 loss to Dallas, kicking field goals on their last three red zone drives, thanks in part couple drops by star WR AJ Green, who had a dismal game.

3) Backup QB Kirk Cousins led a game-tying drive in the last minute for Washington, after RGIII bruised his knee, then the Redskins won 31-28 in OT. What looked like a serious injury for Griffin turned out to be less so, as Redskin coaches/fans/players breathe a huge sigh of relief.

2) Seattle 58, Arizona 0. At one point, Cardinals had 8 turnovers, 7 first downs; their QB play is becoming legendary for its incompetence. Their QB coach is a guy named John McNulty, who played safety at Penn State. No disrespect to Mr McNulty, but in the NFL, think you need someone who has played the position to coach the position at the highest level.

1) Lions lost their third game in row when they led by 10+ points, tying an NFL record; they haven't won in Wisconsin since 1991.

**Udog** · 12-10-2012, 09:01 AM

Double-digit BCS bowl favorites near-perfect against the spread

If you’re a big fan of the upcoming college football playoff system, you’re pointing to BCS bowl matchups like the Orange and Sugar Bowl as to why the Bowl Championship Series process was ultimately flawed in the first place.

What are supposed to be marquee matchups look like blowouts in the making, with the Northern Illinois Huskies set as 12.5-point underdogs versus the Florida State Seminoles in the Orange Bowl and the Louisville Cardinals tagged as 13-point pups facing the Florida Gators in the Sugar Bowl. Even the national title game has been bet up to a double-figure spread, with the Alabama Crimson Tide sitting -10 versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish on Jan. 7.

While those seem like monster spreads for BCS-quality games, they aren’t the highest lines ever for a BCS bowl. That pile of chalk goes to the 2011 Fiesta Bowl, in which the Oklahoma Sooners, 16-point favorites, thumped the UConn Huskies 48-20 on New Year’s Day.

In fact, since the inception of the Bowl Championship Series in 1998 and going back as far as 1985, there have only been six double-digit favorites in any of the five BCS bowls (Orange, Fiesta, Sugar, Rose, BCS Championship). In five of those games, the favorite covered the big spread.

Here’s a look at those five games and their outcomes:

2011 Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma 48, UConn 20 – Oklahoma -16
2010 Sugar Bowl: Florida 51, Cincinnati 24 – Florida -12
2009 Rose Bowl: USC 38, Penn State 24 – USC -10
2008 Rose Bowl: USC 49, Illinois 17 – USC -13
2007 Orange Bowl: Louisville 24, Wake Forest 13 – Louisville -10.5
2003 Fiesta Bowl: Ohio State 31, Miami 24 (OT) - Miami -12

Note: Five of those six BCS bowls with double-digit spreads played over the total.

**Udog** · 12-10-2012, 09:02 AM

Pac-12 good, Big 12 bad: Best conferences to bet in bowl games

Teams from the SEC have been a popular pick with those college football bettors getting down early on the bowl season odds.

Just about every program from the nation’s most powerful conference playing in a bowl has seen their spread expand. And why not?

SEC teams are 62-49-2 ATS in bowl games since 1985, boasting a 66-47 SU mark in those contests.

That 54.8 percent cover rate is impressive but it’s not the best conference ATS count during bowl season. That honor goes to the Pac-12, which holds a 44-34 ATS record (40-38 SU) in bowl games over the past 27 years – covering the spread at a 56.4 percent click.

The Big 12, on the other hand, is a bowl season bust. The conference lugs a dismal 41-62-2 ATS (39 percent) record in bowl game since 1985, going 53-52 SU in those contests. In fact there are just five conferences that have finished in the black against the spread in that span.

The ACC (48-46-3 ATS), Big East (38-31-1 ATS), Mountain West (28-23 ATS), Pac-12 (44-34 ATS) and the SEC (62-49-2 ATS) are the only conference that have consistently turned a profit during bowl season over the last 27 years.

The Big 12 (41-62-2 ATS), C-USA (31-37-2 ATS), Independents (9-10 ATS), MAC (17-21-3 ATS), and WAC (19-23-2 ATS) have all cost bettors money at some point during that stretch while the Big Ten (48-48-1 ATS) and Sun Belt (9-9-2 ATS) have broken even.

**Udog** · 12-10-2012, 09:04 AM

NCAAB
Dunkel

Seattle at Eastern Washington
The Redhawks look to take advantage of an Eastern Washington team that is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 non-conference games. Seattle is the pick (+5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Eagles favored by only 3. Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+5 1/2). Here are all of today's games.

MONDAY, DECEMBER 10

Game 713-714: Seattle at Eastern Washington (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 50.261; Eastern Washington 53.160
Dunkel Line: Eastern Washington by 3
Vegas Line: Eastern Washington by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+5 1/2)

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Monday, December 10

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SEATTLE (2 - 3) at E WASHINGTON (2 - 6) - 12/10/2012, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
E WASHINGTON is 26-46 ATS (-24.6 Units) in December games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 2-1 straight up against E WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons

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NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, December 10

Home side won last five Seattle-Eastern Washington games; Seattle lost its last two visits here, 95-91/100-97ot- they've also lost their last three games overall, scoring 54.7 ppg. Seattle is shooting 39% inside the arc, 29% outside it, 59% from foul line. EWU is 2-6, with four of its last five games decided by 5 or less points. Big Sky home favorites are 3-4 vs the spread this season; WAC road underdogs are 16-13.

NCAAB

Monday, December 10

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Trend Report
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9:05 PM
SEATTLE vs. EASTERN WASHINGTON
Seattle is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games on the road
Eastern Washington is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Seattle
Eastern Washington is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

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**Udog** · 12-10-2012, 09:04 AM

NBA
Dunkel

Atlanta at Miami
The Heat look to build on their 9-3 ATS record in their last 12 games versus the Hawks. Miami is the pick (-7) according to Dunkel, which has the Heat favored by 10 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Miami (-7). Here are all of today's picks.

MONDAY, DECEMBER 10

Game 701-702: Detroit at Philadelphia (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 113.994; Philadelphia 118.588
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 4 1/2; 192
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia by 6 1/2; 186 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+6 1/2); Under

Game 703-704: Golden State at Charlotte (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 119.239; Charlotte 112.569
Dunkel Line & Total: Golden State by 6 1/2; 210
Vegas Line & Total: Golden State by 4; 203
Dunkel Pick: Golden State (-4); Over

Game 705-706: Atlanta at Miami (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 118.857; Miami 129.248
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 10 1/2; 200
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 7; 195 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-7); Over

Game 707-708: San Antonio at Houston (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 128.810; Houston 119.895
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 9; 198
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 3 1/2; 203
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-3 1/2); Under

Game 709-710: Sacramento at Dallas (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 110.782; Dallas 118.693
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 8; 203
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 7; 198
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-7); Over

Game 711-712: Toronto at Portland (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 112.773; Portland 114.056
Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 1 1/2; 192
Vegas Line & Total: Portland by 5 1/2; 197
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+5 1/2); Under

**Udog** · 12-10-2012, 09:05 AM

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, December 10

Hot Teams
-- Warriors won three in row, 10 of last 13 games (1-0-1 as AF).
-- Hawks won nine of their last ten games (2-2 as AU).
-- Spurs won nine of last ten games (8-2 vs spread).
-- Kings won/covered last three games (3-4 as AU). Dallas won three of last four games (1-4 last five as HF).

Cold Teams
-- Pistons lost four of last six games (4-7 as AU, 0-4 last four). Philly lost three of last four games (3-6 as HF).
-- Bobcats lost their last seven games (2-5 vs spread).
-- Miami lost two of last three games, covered two of last seven.
-- Rockets lost last two games, allowing 114-116 points; they've won five of last six at home.
-- Raptors lost 10 of last 11 games (1-5 last six as AU). Portland lost six of its last eight games (1-3-1 as HF).

Totals
-- Last three Detroit games went over the total; three of last four 76er games stayed under.
-- Last six Golden State games went over the total.
-- Six of last eight Atlanta games went over the total
-- Over is 9-3-1 in last thirteen San Antonio games.
-- Four of last five Dallas games stayed under the total.
-- Seven of last eleven Toronto games went over the total.

**Udog** · 12-10-2012, 09:05 AM

NBA

Monday, December 10

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
GOLDEN STATE vs. CHARLOTTE
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Golden State's last 6 games
Golden State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Charlotte's last 9 games when playing Golden State
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Charlotte's last 7 games at home

7:00 PM
DETROIT vs. PHILADELPHIA
Detroit is 7-15 SU in its last 22 games
Detroit is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games at home

7:30 PM
ATLANTA vs. MIAMI
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games on the road
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Miami is 19-5 SU in its last 24 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Miami is 16-7-1 ATS in its last 24 games when playing at home against Atlanta

8:00 PM
SAN ANTONIO vs. HOUSTON
San Antonio is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Antonio's last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 7 games
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against San Antonio

8:30 PM
SACRAMENTO vs. DALLAS
Sacramento is 1-11 SU in its last 12 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Sacramento's last 8 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Dallas's last 8 games when playing Sacramento
Dallas is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games when playing Sacramento

10:00 PM
TORONTO vs. PORTLAND
Toronto is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games
Toronto is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Portland is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Toronto
Portland is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home

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**Udog** · 12-10-2012, 09:08 AM

NBA

Monday, December 10

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Hawks at Heat: What bettors need to know
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Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat (-7, 195.5)

The Miami Heat have enjoyed considerable success versus the Atlanta Hawks - although they've dropped two of their last three to their Southeast Division rivals at AmericanAirlines Arena. Miami will vie for its fifth straight victory and 11th in 13 outings against Atlanta when the teams meet in South Beach on Monday. The Heat improved to 1-1 on their six-game homestand with a 106-90 triumph over New Orleans on Saturday.

The Hawks posted their third straight win and ninth in 10 outings on Saturday after riding an impressive 20-0 surge in the third quarter to a victory over Memphis. Al Horford collected his fifth double-double in as many games with 19 points and 14 rebounds versus the Grizzlies, but registered a season-low 10 points against Miami on Nov. 9. Chris Bosh scored 24 points as the visiting Heat secured a 95-89 victory in that contest.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, SportSouth (Atlanta), Sun Sports (Miami)

ABOUT THE HAWKS (12-5, 7-9-1 ATS): Atlanta will look to utilize its speed and quickness against Miami. Guards Jeff Teague, Devin Harris and Lou Williams will need to keep the Heat on edge if Atlanta looks to continue its winning ways. Leading scorer Josh Smith is having a breakout season by averaging 17 points, but shot just 6-for-19 from the field in the team's previous outing on Nov. 9.

ABOUT THE HEAT (13-5, 8-10 ATS): Bosh admitted that he welcomes Atlanta's challenge. "In the division and the conference, it's lonely at the top," he said. "So you don't want to be by yourselves up there." Miami fell out of the conference's top spot after losses to Washington and New York, but rebounded by shooting a season-best 58 percent against New Orleans. Dwyane Wade scored 26 points and LeBron James added 24 as the Heat used a 33-10 edge in the second quarter to pull away from the Hornets.

TRENDS:

* Under is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings in Miami.
* Favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.
* Under is 17-7 in the last 24 meetings.
* Hawks are 7-17 ATS in the last 24 meetings in Miami.
* Hawks are 3-9 ATS in the last 12 meetings.
* Road team is 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. Miami veteran G Ray Allen needs six points to pass Adrian Dantley (23,177) for 22nd place on the NBA's all-time scoring list.

2. Atlanta G-F Kyle Korver has missed four consecutive games with back spasms.

3. The Heat are 9-1 at home this season

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**Udog** · 12-10-2012, 11:24 AM

NBA
Long Sheet

Monday, December 10

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DETROIT (7 - 15) at PHILADELPHIA (11 - 9) - 12/10/2012, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 35-21 ATS (+11.9 Units) first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 26-14 ATS (+10.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 4-4 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 4-4 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GOLDEN STATE (13 - 7) at CHARLOTTE (7 - 12) - 12/10/2012, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GOLDEN STATE is 28-15 ATS (+11.5 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 30-54 ATS (-29.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 29-49 ATS (-24.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 14-30 ATS (-19.0 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 15-26 ATS (-13.6 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 16-32 ATS (-19.2 Units) after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 14-29 ATS (-17.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHARLOTTE is 2-1 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
CHARLOTTE is 2-1 straight up against GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (12 - 5) at MIAMI (13 - 5) - 12/10/2012, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 39-60 ATS (-27.0 Units) in road games in December games since 1996.
MIAMI is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in home games after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in road games vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 92-126 ATS (-46.6 Units) in home games first half of the season since 1996.
MIAMI is 74-102 ATS (-38.2 Units) in home games vs. division opponents since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 6-3 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 7-2 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
6 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN ANTONIO (17 - 4) at HOUSTON (9 - 10) - 12/10/2012, 8:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 5-4 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 6-3 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SACRAMENTO (7 - 12) at DALLAS (10 - 10) - 12/10/2012, 8:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 3-3 against the spread versus SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 5-1 straight up against SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TORONTO (4 - 17) at PORTLAND (8 - 12) - 12/10/2012, 10:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
PORTLAND is 3-0 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
PORTLAND is 3-0 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 12-10-2012, 01:00 PM

NBA
Short Sheet

Monday, December 10

Detroit at Philadelphia, 7:05 ET NBATV
Detroit: 9-20 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points
Philadelphia: 17-6 ATS in December

Golden State at Charlotte, 7:05 ET
Golden State: 28-15 ATS in road games
Charlotte: 9-24 ATS off a home loss

Atlanta at Miami, 7:35 ET
Atlanta: 39-60 ATS in road games in December
Miami: 13-3 ATS in home games after a non-conference game

San Antonio at Houston, 8:05 ET
San Antonio: 14-3 after playing a game as favorite
Houston: 28-42 ATS revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more

Sacramento at Dallas, 8:35 ET
Sacramento: 16-34 ATS in the first half of the season
Dallas: 12-3 ATS off a win against a division rival

Toronto at Portland, 10:05 ET
Toronto: 12-4 after 2 straight losses by 10 points or more
Portland: 53-68 ATS after 2 straight games where they had 5 or less steals

**Udog** · 12-10-2012, 01:02 PM

NFL odds: Week 15 opening line report

The average NFL bettor has a very short memory. What happened on Sunday has bigger sway over their bets than a team’s season-long resume.

The Atlanta Falcons, who boast the NFC’s best record at 11-2 SU, just suffered their second loss of the year in a 30-20 beatdown courtesy of the Carolina Panthers in Week 14.

Atlanta, which has already won the NFC South and earned a spot in the postseason, is a 1-point home favorite in Week 15 hosting the New York Giants, who just rolled the Falcons’ division rivals, the New Orleans Saints, 52-27 this past Sunday.

“We don’t want to forget just how good Atlanta is,” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, told Covers. “Atlanta is more than capable here. They’ve come back to earth a little bit, but they’re already in the playoffs. This would be a perfect game for them to get hot at the right time.”

Korner’s stable of oddsmakers sent out the Falcons as suggested 2.5-point favorites and it appears that is where the early sharp money is taking the spread. Some books opened this game as low as a pick’em. That line has moved as high as -2 at some online markets.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Dallas Cowboys (Pick, 44.5)

This classic NFL grudge match features two teams scrambling for postseason spots. Dallas is back home after a nail-biting win in Cincinnati while the Steelers leave behind a shocking home loss to San Diego this past weekend.

Pittsburgh welcomed back starting quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, who missed the previous three games with rib and shoulder injuries. Outside of a late push, Roethlisberger was rusty and finished the day 22 for 45 passing and committed two turnovers. The Steelers managed just three points in the first half.

“This is what can happen when a key player is out and comes back at an important time,” says Korner. “When you bring a key player back, it can sometimes be disruptive. Not to say (Roethlisberger) isn't their best option, but the timing is off and it will take a while to get that back. He hasn't practiced much since the injury.”

San Francisco 49ers at New England Patriots (-3, 48)

New England opened as a field-goal favorite for Week 15 but that spread will make a move depending on how things play out for the Patriots versus the Texans on Monday Night Football.

Korner says it could go as high as -4 if New England has a strong showing versus Houston and could see this hovering around -3 if they don’t.

“As far as positioning goes, this isn’t a conference game. And at the end of the year, both teams could be thinking about staying healthy for the playoffs,” says Korner. “This could also be a slight letdown for the Patriots, depending on Monday’s result.”

Seattle Seahawks vs. Buffalo Bills (+4, 42.5)

The Bills cross the border for what is supposed to be a home game. However, Korner doesn’t factor in the home–field edge as much for this showdown in Toronto.

“When we talk about home-field advantage, we don’t really talk about the fans,” he says. “We’re thinking more about preparation and travel. When the game starts, the fans don’t really matter.”

Buffalo loses a home game in the December cold of Ralph Wilson Stadium and trades that for the echoing confines of the Rogers Centre, a domed environment not known as a great football venue.

The Bills don’t have much incentive heading into Week 15 while the Seahawks have won four of their last five, including a 58-0 demolition of Arizona Sunday. Korner’s stable of oddsmakers sent out Seattle -6 as the suggested spread for this game.

“We were thinking Seattle -3 while we watched the Seahawks game on Sunday,” he says. “Then they kept racking up the points. We just had to shoot (the spread) up.”

Announcement

Monday's Trends and Indexes - 12/10 (NBA, NCAAB, Misc.)

Monday's Trends and Indexes - 12/10 (NBA, NCAAB, Misc.)

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