NFL Week 14

[roccodean]

Based on 1-5*
Analysis to follow

2* NE -3 over Hou (-120 at 5dimeS)

[roccodean]

2* Buffalo over St. Louis (Possible upgrade to 3*)
2* at -3 or less
I doubt this goes to 2.5, but there is extra juice on the Rams right now (Sat morning) so it's worth the wait


1* Tenn over Indy (Possible upgrade to 2*)
1* at +4.5 or greater
2* at +7
Would wait for this line to keep climbing-the public will be all over Ind

[CheCheBoFumbe]

Good luck rocco

[roccodean]

2* Minn +3 over Chicago
Analysis shortly

1* Carolina +3.5 over Atl (Possible 2* upgrade)
Analysis shortly

[roccodean]

2* Buffalo over St. Louis
2* at -3 or less
I doubt this goes to 2.5, but there is extra juice on the Rams right now (Sat morning) so it's worth the wait
The Rams are off a win as a 7 point dog vs the Niners…I smell letdown. Buffalo’s run game is one of the best in the league (3rd) and they will control the clock and the game. The Bills are gaining some late season momentum and I don’t see them stopping here. There is a 40-8 straight up trend favoring the Bills…and nobody circles the wagon like the Buffalo Bills.

2* New England -3 over Houston
1* at -3.5 to -4
As of now (Thursday) NE is -3 with extra juice at over half the online and Vegas sportsbooks
This is Houston’s 3rd consecutive road game and teams in this spot are 100-133-1 ATS since 1990. NE also applies to a 64-29 ATS subset of this trend. Statistically these teams are similar with Houston having the advantage versus the Pats poor pass D. But I don’t see Brady losing on Monday night under the lights with Hou coming off 3 tough road games.

2* Minn +3 over Chicago
2* at +3 or better
Chicago was winning on TO's and special teams earlier in the year, and we are seeing the regression. Minnesota has a dominant running attack averaging an amazing 5.5 YPR (1st in league) and the Bears are 23rd in rush D allowing 22nd allowing 4.5 YPR. Minnesota's D is very good; they are 7th vs the rush (YPR) and 10th vs the pass (YPPA). On the other side of the ball the Bears are below average. They average 4.1 YPR (23rd) and 6.9 YPPA (22nd). This is what I call a "sandwich" game for the Vikings. They just played 2 on the road, and their next 2 are on the road. These teams usually perform better because they know it is imperative to win at home. Give me Minne..I think they win outright.

2* Carolina +3.5 over Atl
2* at +3 or better
I have been betting against Atl very often this year because they have no business being a 1 loss team. They allow 4.8 YPR (29th) and 4.4 YPPA (21st)...does that sound like a 1 loss team? Offensively their pass numbers are strong but they are 29th in the NFL averaging only 3.8 YPR. Carolina's D isn't strong, but it is better than Atl's (22nd vs run and 18th vs pass). They will be able to move the ball easily; they are 1st in the NFL with 8.3 YPPA! There is a great trend favoring the Panthers (127-67-7 ATS) because of their loss as a big favorite last week. I think Carolina has a good shot for the win here and would wager a few coins on the money line.

1* Tenn over Indy
1* at +4.5 or greater
2* at +7
Would wait for this line to keep climbing-the public will be all over Ind
Because of Indy’s recent winning ways they are over valued and this line shouldn’t be this high. Statistically Tenn is actually BETTER. I know that is crazy! Tenn is 6th in rushing offense vs Indys terrible rushing D (30th). Indy’s pass D isn’t much better (21st). Tenn run D is 18th and pass D is 25th. Indy’s stock cannot be higher and that means it is the perfect time to go against them. I think Tennessee has a very good chance to win this game and would also put a wager on the money line (0.1-0.2 units).

[LeRoy]

GL today Rocco A sweep of the board whould be all right

[flashypants]

gl pal

[ravenmaniac]

Bol

[jt4545]

Good luck

[Kaptain]

gl my man

[Spark]

Good Luck rocco ... like the write ups

[Sirporkie]

GL Rocco

[roccodean]

thanks guys!

[roccodean]

Added phil as 1* late...sorry forgot to post. I always put on by site and twitter tho

[LeRoy]

Job well done today Rocco